L'évaluation des coûts et des avantages du système de banque centrale dépend fondamentalement de l'approche analytique adoptée. Les approches instrumentalistes et positivistes, discutées dans la première partie de cette thèse, se concentrent principalement sur l'importance des prédictions empiriques quantitatives. Ces approches tendent à mettre l'accent sur les conséquences immédiates et facilement mesurables. Les effets bénéfiques de court-terme des politiques monétaires expansionnistes sont ainsi étudiés en détail par les partisans de ces approches. Les critiques internes de ces dernières sont basées sur la reconnue ignorance des potentiels effets secondaires déstabilisateurs. Les coûts engendrés par les banques centrales sont vus principalement comme une perte de bien être due à une activité économique diminuée où une inflation des prix trop élevée résultant d'une déviation vis-à-vis de la politique monétaire optimale. L'approche causale-réaliste, étudiée dans la deuxième partie, donne un rôle plus restreint à la méthode empirique quantitative. Cette ligne de recherche permet une extension fructueuse de l'analyse coûts bénéfices à des notions plus abstraites qui peuvent être étudiées qualitativement tels le risque systémique et l'aléa moral. Cette étude défend que le régime moderne de banque centrale a alimenté le développement de ces deux phénomènes. Nous analysons comment la récurrence du cycle économique et la redistribution de la richesse au profit des plus aisés sont des effets importants de l'expansion du crédit. Une explication alternative de la stagflation basée sur le processus de l'intervention politique en réponse à ces conséquences inattendues est proposée. / The evaluation of the costs and benefits of central banking is to a considerable degree dependent on the analytical approach pursued.Instrumentalist-positivist approaches, as discussed in the first part of the thesis, emphasize the importance of empirical-quantitativepredictions for the development of economic models. Within this line of research, there exists a strong emphasis on those consequences of central banking that have an immediate and readily measurable empirical counterpart in the observed economic environment.Hence, the beneficial short-term effects of expansionary monetary policy in terms of increased economic activity are studied in detail and are well understood by proponents of these approaches. Internal counterarguments are based on acknowledged ignorance about potentially destabilizing side-effects. The costs of central banking are essentially seen as welfare losses from decreasedeconomic activity or excessive price inflation as results of deviations from an optimal monetary policy path. The causal- realist approach, as studied in the second part, assigns a narrower role to quantitative-empirical tools of analysis. This line of research allows for a fruitful extension of the cost-benefit analysis to more abstract notions such as systemic risk and moral hazard that can be analyzed qualitatively. It is argued that modern central banking is a contributing factor to both. Moreover, business cycles and wealth redistribution from bottom to top as important effects of credit expansion are analyzed. An alternative explanation of stagflation based on the process of political interventionism in response to unintended consequences of monetary policy is proposed.

La thèse porte sur la conception et l'analyse mathématique de méthodes de Monte Carlo fiables et précises pour l'estimation de la (très petite) probabilité qu'un processus de Markov atteigne une région critique de l'espace d'état avant un instant final déterministe. L'idée sous-jacente aux méthodes de branchement multi-niveaux étudiées ici est de mettre en place une suite emboitée de régions intermédiaires de plus en plus critiques, de telle sorte qu'atteindre une région intermédiaire donnée sachant que la région intermédiaire précédente a déjà été atteinte, n'est pas si rare. En pratique, les trajectoires sont propagées, sélectionnées et répliquées dès que la région intermédiaire suivante est atteinte, et il est facile d'estimer avec précision la probabilité de transition entre deux régions intermédiaires successives. Le biais dû à la discrétisation temporelle des trajectoires du processus de Markov est corrigé en utilisant des régions intermédiaires perturbées, comme proposé par Gobet et Menozzi. Une version adaptative consiste à définir automatiquement les régions intermédiaires, à l’aide de quantiles empiriques. Néanmoins, une fois que le seuil a été fixé, il est souvent difficile voire impossible de se rappeler où (dans quel état) et quand (à quel instant) les trajectoires ont dépassé ce seuil pour la première fois, le cas échéant. La contribution de la thèse consiste à utiliser une première population de trajectoires pilotes pour définir le prochain seuil, à utiliser une deuxième population de trajectoires pour estimer la probabilité de dépassement du seuil ainsi fixé, et à itérer ces deux étapes (définition du prochain seuil, et évaluation de la probabilité de transition) jusqu'à ce que la région critique soit finalement atteinte. La convergence de cet algorithme adaptatif à deux étapes est analysée dans le cadre asymptotique d'un grand nombre de trajectoires. Idéalement, les régions intermédiaires doivent êtres définies en terme des variables spatiale et temporelle conjointement (par exemple, comme l'ensemble des états et des temps pour lesquels une fonction scalaire de l’état dépasse un niveau intermédiaire dépendant du temps). Le point de vue alternatif proposé dans la thèse est de conserver des régions intermédiaires simples, définies en terme de la variable spatiale seulement, et de faire en sorte que les trajectoires qui dépassent un seuil précocement sont davantage répliquées que les trajectoires qui dépassent ce même seuil plus tardivement. L'algorithme résultant combine les points de vue de l'échantillonnage pondéré et du branchement multi-niveaux. Sa performance est évaluée dans le cadre asymptotique d'un grand nombre de trajectoires, et en particulier un théorème central limite est obtenu pour l'erreur d'approximation relative. / The thesis deals with the design and mathematical analysis of reliable and accurate Monte Carlo methods in order to estimate the (very small) probability that a Markov process reaches a critical region of the state space before a deterministic final time. The underlying idea behind the multilevel splitting methods studied here is to design an embedded sequence of intermediate more and more critical regions, in such a way that reaching an intermediate region, given that the previous intermediate region has already been reached, is not so rare. In practice, trajectories are propagated, selected and replicated as soon as the next intermediate region is reached, and it is easy to accurately estimate the transition probability between two successive intermediate regions. The bias due to time discretization of the Markov process trajectories is corrected using perturbed intermediate regions as proposed by Gobet and Menozzi. An adaptive version would consist in the automatic design of the intermediate regions, using empirical quantiles. However, it is often difficult if not impossible to remember where (in which state) and when (at which time instant) did each successful trajectory reach the empirically defined intermediate region. The contribution of the thesis consists in using a first population of pilot trajectories to define the next threshold, in using a second population of trajectories to estimate the probability of exceeding this empirically defined threshold, and in iterating these two steps (definition of the next threshold, and evaluation of the transition probability) until the critical region is reached. The convergence of this adaptive two-step algorithm is studied in the asymptotic framework of a large number of trajectories. Ideally, the intermediate regions should be defined in terms of the spatial and temporal variables jointly (for example, as the set of states and times for which a scalar function of the state exceeds a time-dependent threshold). The alternate point of view proposed in the thesis is to keep intermediate regions as simple as possible, defined in terms of the spatial variable only, and to make sure that trajectories that manage to exceed a threshold at an early time instant are more replicated than trajectories that exceed the same threshold at a later time instant. The resulting algorithm combines importance sampling and multilevel splitting. Its preformance is evaluated in the asymptotic framework of a large number of trajectories, and in particular a central limit theorem is obtained for the relative approximation error.

Les disparités socio-spatiales sont à la fois une cause et une conséquence des inégalités sociales. Cette thèse interroge le rôle des inégalités sociales dans la formation et la correction des disparités socio-spatiales. Elle est composée de trois essais, qui éclairent différentes facettes de ce questionnement, faisant intervenir les migrations résidentielles et les politiques publiques. Le premier essai analyse la pertinence des orientations stratégiques nationales de la politique de développement rural à l'aune du débat philosophique sur la justice sociale. Il met en évidence le rôle que joue et que devrait jouer l'objectif de réduction des inégalités sociales dans la définition d'une politique agissant sur les disparités socio-spatiales. Les deux essais suivants montrent comment les inégalités sociales génèrent des disparités socio-spatiales par le biais des mobilités résidentielles de longues et de courtes distances. Le second essai étudie les effets du sentiment d'aversion à l'inégalité locale et de la politique de redistribution du revenu sur les mobilités et les disparités interrégionales, dans le cadre théorique de la Nouvelle Economie Géographique. Le dernier essai examine comment les inégalités sociales conditionnent les choix résidentiels et induisent une ségrégation socio-spatiale au sein des aires urbaines françaises, à l'aide de modèles économétriques de choix discrets / Socio-spatial disparities are both a cause and a consequence of social inequalities. This thesis questions the role of social inequalities in the formation and correction of socio-spatial disparities. It is composed of three essays shedding light on different sides of this issue, involving residential migrations and public policies. The first essay analyses the relevance of the national strategic orientations of the rural development policy by the yardstick of the philosophical debate on social justice. It puts in evidence the role that play and should play the objective of reducing social inequalities in the definition of a policy acting on socio-spatial disparities. The two following essays show how social inequalities generate socio-spatial disparities through long and short distance residential moves. The second essay studies the effect of the feeling of aversion toward local inequality and of the income redistribution policy on interregional migrations and disparities, in the theoretical framework of the New Economic Geography. The last essay examines how social inequalities determine residential choices and produce socio-spatial segregation in the French urban areas, using econometric discrete choice models

Prolonged strenuous exercise affects the circulating numbers and functions of immune cells. These effects are thought to be largely mediated by the actions of elevated circulating stress hormones and alterations in regulatory cytokines. Although the effects of a single acute bout of exercise on immune system function are quite well established, it is still not clear how time of day and repeated bouts of prolonged exercise on the same day influence immune function. It is of particular interest to understand the effects of nutritional supplementation on immunoendocrine responses. Therefore, the aims of the studies described in this thesis were to determine the effects of two bouts of prolonged cycling and carbohydrate supplementation on immunoendocrine responses. The saliva collection study showed that the use of a swab for collecting saliva is not an ideal method because it affects the results of saliva composition (Chapter 4). The comparison of the effects of exercise at different times of day on immunoendocrine responses showed that a single bout of prolonged exercise performed in the afternoon induces a larger perturbation in the redistribution of leukocytes into the circulation than an identical bout of morning exercise, which maybe due to higher hypothalamic-pituitaryadrenal (HP A) activation and. circadian rhythms. However, in terms of oral mucosal immunity, performing prolonged cycling at different times of day does not differently affect the salivary responses. The second compared with the first of two bouts of prolonged exercise on the same day induces a greater HP A activation, a larger leukocyte trafficking into the circulation, a decreased neutrophil degranulation response to lipopolysaccharide (LPS) on per cell basis and a lower saliva flow rate, but does not increase plasma interleukin-6 (IL-6), or change saliva immunoglobulin A (slgA) secretion rate (Chapter 5). Furthermore, carbohydrate (CHO) ingestion during any period of two bouts of prolonged exercise shows limited beneficial effect in blunting these higher responses in the second exercise bout compared with the first identical exercise bout on the same day (Chapter 6, 7 and 8). The determination of the effects of CHO ingestion on exercise-induced immunoendocrine responses showed that when two bouts of exercise are performed on the same day, the greater benefit in terms of circulating immunoendocrine responses is obtained by feeding CHO at the earliest opportunity (Chapter 6, 7 and 8). A 3-h interval is insufficient for recovery of leukocyte mobilisation and neutrophil function from the impact of previous exercise whether subjects consumed placebo or CHO during exercise or recovery (Chapter 5, 6, 7 and 8). However, an 18-h interval is sufficient for full recovery of all immunoendocrine variables that were measured in this thesis from the impact of two bouts of prolonged exercise (Chapter 8).

Cette thèse traite du problème de la redistribution dynamique parallèle efficace de la charge pour les problèmes numériques de très grande taille. Nous présentons tout d'abord un état de l'art des algorithmes permettant de résoudre les problèmes du partitionnement, du repartitionnement, du placement statique et du re-placement. Notre première contribution vise à étudier, dans un cadre séquentiel, les caractéristiques algorithmiques souhaitables pour les méthodes parallèles de repartitionnement. Nous y présentons notre contribution à la conception d'un schéma multi-niveaux k-aire pour le calcul sequentiel de repartitionnements. La partie la plus exigeante de cette adaptation concerne la phase d'expansion. L'une de nos contributions majeures a été de nous inspirer des méthodes d'influence afin d'adapter un algorithme de raffinement par diffusion au problème du repartitionnement.Notre deuxième contribution porte sur la mise en oeuvre de ces méthodes sur machines parallèles. L'adaptation du schéma multi-niveaux parallèle a nécessité une évolution des algorithmes et des structures de données mises en oeuvre pour le partitionnement. Ce travail est accompagné d'une analyse expérimentale, qui est rendue possible grâce à la mise en oeuvre des algorithmes considérés au sein de la bibliothèque Scotch. / This thesis concerns efficient parallel dynamic load balancing for large scale numerical problems. First, we present a state of the art of the algorithms used to solve the partitioning, repartitioning, mapping and remapping problems. Our first contribution, in the context of sequential processing, is to define the desirable features that parallel repartitioning tools need to possess. We present our contribution to the conception of a k-way multilevel framework for sequential repartitioning. The most challenging part of this work regards the uncoarsening phase. One of our main contributions is the adaptation of influence methods to a global diffusion-based heuristic for the repartitioning problem. Our second contribution is the parallelization of these methods. The adaptation of the aforementioned algorithms required some modification of the algorithms and data structure used by existing parallel partitioning routines. This work is backed by a thorough experimental analysis, which is made possible thanks to the implementation of our algorithms into the Scotch library.

Based on the political economy of the media perspective, this paper explores the media coverage of wealth and inheritance taxation over the early 21st century (2000 to 2018) based on a large-scale corpus of seven German daily and weekly newspapers. Germany is a useful case study, being one of the most unequal countries in the Eurozone area in terms of wealth inequality. Drawing on text mining methods and corpus linguistics, it shows that wealth and inheritance taxation is a relatively infrequent topic over the entire period, with the exception of a few intense months of increased reporting. On the occasions that the media do report on the topic of wealth and inheritance taxation, it is mainly covered in terms of a political debate. This debate centres on the politics of a possible reform process and the connected difficulties of finding compromise between different actors, rather than focussing on the potential economic impact. Furthermore, this paper explores the power of agents (both on the organisational and individual level) as the primary definers of social reality. It shows that market-liberal and conservative organisations and economists dominate the news over social-democratic and left-wing ones. Overall, the findings indicate a hostile news coverage concerning the introduction of wealth taxation and the increase of inheritance tax. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Student Number : 0005589F - MA research report - School of International Relations - Faculty of Humanities / This research report identifies the role that the land redistribution in Zimbabwe plays and has played in the country’s politics and its foreign policy toward both South Africa and Britain. The situation in Zimbabwe is explained in full using a wide range of sources. Zimbabwean history is investigated in-depth to reveal the path the country has followed, and what factors from the past have led to the country’s situation today. International relations discourse and international law are evaluated in order to explain the country’s complicated situation in academic terms, while South African and British foreign policy are analysed in order to gauge international and regional reactions to the crisis.

O uso abusivo de substâncias psicoativas cresce a cada dia em diferentes segmentos da sociedade mundialmente. Aumentos significativos no número de ocorrências de óbito com envolvimento de tais substâncias têm sido reportados nas últimas décadas. A classe dos opiáceos está figurada entre as substâncias de maior prevalência nesse contexto. Em toxicologia forense, análises toxicológicas conduzidas em amostras postmortem podem auxiliar se substâncias químicas tiveram influência no óbito. A realização dessas análises e interpretação dos resultados obtidos nesses casos é bastante complexa devido à deterioração sofrida pelos cadáveres, e também pela ocorrência de um fenômeno denominado redistribuição postmortem, responsável pela transferência de substâncias após a morte a favor de gradiente de concentração. Em geral, as substâncias são transferidas de órgãos como fígado, coração, pulmões, e trato gastrointestinal, para locais de menor concentração, afetando principalmente o sangue da região central e órgãos adjacentes. O humor vítreo, apesar de considerado um espécime não-convencional, pode ser bastante útil, principalmente em casos onde não há amostras sanguíneas disponíveis para coleta. Esse espécime se apresenta como uma matriz menos propensa à decomposição bacteriana, além de ser menos afetado pela redistribuição postmortem por sua localização mais afastada dos sítios centrais. Desta forma, um método para quantificação de opiáceos (morfina livre e total, codeína e 6-acetilmorfina) em sangue (cardíaco e periférico) e em humor vítreo humanos coletados postmortem foi desenvolvido e validado. O método mostrou ser preciso, eficiente e sensível, com limite de quantificação de 10 ng/ml. Amostras de 7 casos postmortem com envolvimento de opiáceos foram analisadas com o intuito de verificar correlação nas concentrações entre os sítios, e possível ocorrência do fenômeno de redistribuição. / The abuse of psychoactive substances grows every day worldwide in different segments of the society. Significant increases in the number of drug-related deaths have been reported in recent decades. The class of opiates is one of the most prevalent substances in this context. In forensic toxicology, toxicological analyses are performed in postmortem samples to evaluate whether chemical substances were involved in the death. The completion of this analysis and interpretation of results are very complex due to the deterioration suffered by the corpses, and also by the occurrence of the phenomenon called postmortem redistribution, responsible for the transfer of substances along a concentration gradient after death. In general, the transference of the substances occurred from organs such as liver, heart, lungs and gastrointestinal tract to sites of low concentrations, mainly affecting the blood from central sites and adjacent organs. By this reason, the collection of blood from two different sites of the body for comparison is highly recommendable. Despite being considered a non-conventional specimen, vitreous humor can be quite useful, especially in cases where no blood samples are available for collection. This specimen is usually less prone to bacterial decomposition, and it\'s also less affected by postmortem redistribution due to its location further away from central sites. Thus, a method to quantify opiates (free and total morphine, codeine and 6- monoacetylmorphine) in postmortem blood (cardiac and peripheral) and in vitreous humor samples was developed and validated. The method showed good accuracy, efficiency and sensibility, with limit of quantification of the 10 ng/ml. Seven samples of postmortem cases with opiates involvement were analyzed to verify the correlation in the concentrations of the sites, and possible occurrence of the redistribution phenomenon.

O objetivo da análise estrutural é determinar os efeitos das ações em uma estrutura, com a finalidade de efetuar verificações de estados limites últimos e de serviço (NBR 6118:2003 Projeto de estruturas de concreto). A análise estrutural consiste numa das principais etapas do projeto estrutural de um edifício, pois compreende a escolha dos modelos teóricos, que devem representar adequadamente a estrutura real, e do tipo de análise, com relação ao comportamento dos materiais. Visa-se, com este trabalho, aproximar o meio técnico do acadêmico, e tornar mais acessível a parte da NBR 6118:2003 que trata da análise estrutural. Neste trabalho consideram-se os modelos estruturais mais utilizados, no cálculo de edifícios, e os principais conceitos relativos aos diferentes tipos de análise permitidos pela norma. Em seguida são realizados exemplos de elementos lineares, pelos diferentes tipos de análise, com ênfase na redistribuição de esforços, empregando-se análise linear com redistribuição ou análise plástica. Ressalta-se a importância da consideração de seção T nas vigas e os ajustes necessários quando da consideração de uma envoltória de carregamentos. Tem-se ainda um exemplo de um edifício de oito pavimentos, que visa demonstrar as diferenças nos esforços ou nos deslocamentos obtidos com modelos estruturais distintos / The structural analysis objective is to determine the actions effects in a structure, with the purpose of verifying the ultimate limit states and serviceability (brazilian code NBR 6118:2003 - Design of concrete structures). The structural analysis is one of the main parts of a building structural design, since it involves the choice of theoretical models that represent appropriately the real structure, and the type of analysis due to the materials behavior. This work intends to shorten the distance between design engineers and the academic world, providing a clearer vision of the NBR 6118:2003 structural analysis approach. This work considers the most common structural models used for buildings, and the theory concerning the different types of analysis permitted by the brazilian code. It presents simple examples of linear elements computed by different types of analysis, emphasizing the moment redistribution possibility, either with the linear analysis with redistribution or the plastic analysis. The importance of considering T-beam with moment redistribution is made clear, and lines of direction to consider alternate position of live loads are given. The last example presents an eight store building, and its differences relative to efforts and displacements, obtained by distinct structural models

A interpretação dos achados laboratoriais no estabelecimento da causa mortis consiste na integração dos conhecimentos sobre a toxicocinética e toxicodinâmica do agente, conhecimentos de sua redistribuição post mortem (RPM) e achados necroscópicos que possibilitem o nexo causal entre o toxicante e o efeito letal. Neste sentido, é importante considerar que somente as concentrações de cocaína (COC) e seus metabólitos podem não ser determinantes na interpretação da causa de morte, podendo ser útil o cotejamento com outros parâmetros, como os níveis de neurotrasmissores que representem o mecanismo de ação do fármaco. Assim, este trabalho teve por objetivo investigar a RPM da COC e seu metabólito benzoilecgonina (BE) em três segmentos do tecido encefálico (TE), no humor vítreo (HV) e sangue (SG), bem como determinar as concentrações de catecolaminas e indolaminas no encéfalo para avaliar a aplicação da neuroquímica post mortem (NPM) na toxicologia forense. No estudo de RPM foram quantificados os níveis de COC e BE em três segmentos do TE (córtex frontal, núcleos da base e cerebelo), no HV e no SG através de método por cromatografia líquida de alta eficiência (HPLC) acoplada ao detector de arranjo de diodos. Os estudos de neuroquímica foram realizados empregando-se HPLC acoplada ao detector eletroquímico. Os resultados indicaram que as concentrações médias de COC foram maiores no TE, seguido por SG e HV (3,09, 2,92 e 1,71 µg/mL, respectivamente), enquanto para BE foram maiores em SG, seguido por HV e TE (6,12, 1,39 e 0,87 µg/mL, respectivamente). As concentrações de COC se apresentaram distribuídas uniformemente nos três segmentos de TE e apresentaram alta correlação com o HV. Adicionalmente, a média de concentrações de dopamina total foi maior no grupo de indivíduos com amostras positivas para COC, sendo verificado diferença significativa entre este grupo e o de indivíduos com amostras negativas para o fármaco de interesse. Os resultados demostraram que o estudo de RPM e da NPM constituem ferramentas aplicáveis na interpretação da causa e maneira de morte. / In case of intoxication, the interpretation of analytical results to assess the cause and process of death requires knowledge about toxicokinetics, toxicodynamic, postmortem redistribution, and autopsy elements. Cocaine-related deaths occur mainly after prolonged drugs use and the presence of cocaine (COC) in fluids or tissues does not prove that death was due to COC consumption, and the interpretation of postmortem concentrations is even more complicated than attempts at making such correlations in the living. The objectives of this study were to investigate the post mortem redistribution (PMR) of COC and its metabolite benzoylecgonine (BE) in three segments of brain (frontal cortex, base nucleous, and cerebellum), vitreous humor, and blood. In additional, catecholamines and indolamines were quantified in brain in order to evaluate the usefulness of post mortem neurochemistry (PMN) in forensic toxicology. In PMR studies were quantified the COC and BE levels in three brain (BR) segments, in vitreous humor (VH), and blood (BL) by High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) with diode array detection, and for neurochemistry studies the neurotransmitters were quantified by HPLC with electrochemical detection. A homogenous distribution of COC and BE within frontal cortex, base nucleous, and cerebellum was found. The COC media concentrations were 3.09, 2.92 e 1.71µg/mL in BR, BL and VH, respectively, and the BE media concentrations were 6.12, 1.39 e 0.87 µg/mL in BL, VH, and BR, respectively. The COC concentrations in VH show high correlation with brain. The media total dopamine concentration was significant higher in COC positive group. These findings suggest that the studies of PMR and PMN by neurotransmitters levels may be useful to assess the cause and process of death.