La intermediación financiera ha aumentado a lo largo del tiempo en el Perú, los principales factores que pueden explicar este incremento son el acceso al sistema financiero, los ingresos percibidos y el nivel educativo y educación financiera. Sin embargo, una de las variables que no se suele tomar en consideración es la percepción de confianza, la cual es la que se estudia en este trabajo, y se busca hallar la influencia en la relación de la demanda por servicios financieros. Beczuck (2005) considera que las características y percepciones de la población influyen de manera positiva en el mejoramiento de la intermediación financiera. Por lo que resulta relevante el poder realizar estudios por el lado de la demanda para poder entender el comportamiento de la población frente a los servicios financieros ofertados. Mediante la la Encuesta Nacional de Capacidades Financieras 2019, se realiza una estimación del modelo de elección binaria debido a la característica de naturaleza dicotómica de la variable dependiente, donde se estima si una persona elige una cuenta de ahorro, depósitos a plazo y fondos mutuos o algún tipo de crédito en el sistema financiero. Los resultados muestran que la confianza tiene una relación positiva en la demanda por servicios financieros, lo que involucraría el tener en cuenta una mejor construcción y consideración de esta variable para políticas económicas. / Financial intermediation has increased over time in Peru, and the main factors that may explain this increase are access to the financial system, perceived income and the level of education and financial literacy. However, one of the variables that is not usually taken into consideration is the perception of trust, which is the one studied in this paper, and the aim is to find its influence on the relationship between the demand for financial services. Beczuck (2005) considers that the characteristics and perceptions of the population have a positive influence on the improvement of financial intermediation. Therefore, it is important to carry out studies on the demand side in order to understand the behavior of the population with respect to the financial services offered. Through the National Survey of Financial Capabilities 2019, an estimation of the binary choice model is made due to the dichotomous nature of the dependent variable, where it is estimated whether a person chooses a savings account, time deposits and mutual funds or some type of credit in the financial system. The results show that trust has a positive relationship with the demand for financial services, which would involve taking into account a better construction and consideration of this variable for economic policies. / Trabajo de investigación

Bakgrund: Forskning inom socialt arbete indikerar att omvårdnadspersonal inom arbetet med äldre människor kan agera i strid med vårdtagares rätt till autonomi i situationer då en potentiell risk för skada uppstår. Syfte: Studiens syften var att: a) undersöka omvårdnadspersonalens förhållningssätt till autonomifrämjande och riskaverta omvårdnadssituationer och b) att använda Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) för att undersöka vilka faktorer som påverkar personalens intentioner till agerande i dessa situationer. Metod: Studien nyttjade en kvantitativ tvärsnitts- och kvasi-experimentell design, med vinjettbaserade enkäter skildrandes tre omvårdnadssituationer som skiljer sig i autonomifrämjande och riskaverta ageranden hos omvårdnadspersonalen. Urval: Urvalet bestod av omvårdnadspersonal (n=62) från fem vård- och omsorgsboenden för personer med demens. Resultat: Sammantaget tyder omvårdnadspersonalens bedömningar av situationerna att riskaverta ageranden var vanligare än autonomifrämjande ageranden både hos dem själva och bland deras kollegor. Genom analyser av TRA ges belägg för att de subjektiva normerna påverkar personalens intentioner till agerande mer än attityder. / Background: Research within social work indicates that staff working in care for older people can act in a way that conflicts with the care-recipient’s right to autonomy in situations where there is a risk of harm. Purpose: The study’s aims were a) to investigate staff’s response to autonomy-promoting and risk-averse care situations and b) to use the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) to investigate which factors influence staff’s intentions to act in these situations. Method: A quantitative cross-sectional quasi-experimental design, with vignette-based surveys depicting three care situations differing in terms of autonomy-promoting or risk-averse staff behavior. Sample: Nursing staff (N = 62) recruited from five specialist dementia care homes. Results: Overall, staff ratings of the vignettes suggested risk-aversion is more common than autonomy-promotion, both among their colleagues and in their own behavior, while the TRA analyses indicated that subjective norms more than attitudes influence the behavioral intentions of staff.

[pt] Estratégias de diversificação de riqueza têm como objetivo eliminar o risco idiossincrático. Estas estratégias não estão disponíveis para acionistas controladores em empresas como no Brasil, em que o controle tem grande valor e os controladores não querem correr o risco de abrir mão dele, como visto por Leal et al (2002). Nesse contexto, risco idiossincrático deve ser relevante para decisões de endividamento corporativo. Para testar esta hipótese, é coletada uma amostra de 329 empresas de capital aberto da B3 de 2003 a 2017. Regressões com variáveis instrumentais mostram que 1 desvio padrão de variação do risco idiossincrático impacta em uma redução de endividamento de 0,18 desvio padrão. Esta relação não é encontrada para empresas controladas pelo governo. Concentração de propriedade, portanto, magnifica problemas de financiamento e alocação de capital em empresas privadas. / [en] Wealth diversification strategies aim to eliminate idiosyncratic risk. Those strategies are not available for controlling shareholders in companies like in Brazil, where control is highly valued, and shareholders don’t want to risk losing it, as seen in Leal et al (2002). In this context, idiosyncratic risk should be relevant for capital structure decision making. To test this hypothesis, a sample of 329 private firms in B3 from 2003 to 2017 is used. Regressions with instrumental variables show that 1 standard deviation change in idiosyncratic risk impacts in a reduction in leverage of 0.18 standard deviations. This relation is not found among government-controlled firms. Thus, propriety concentration magnifies financing problems and capital allocation in private firms.

[pt] Com o advento do novo modelo do setor elétrico a partir de 2004, foi permitida aos agentes de mercado a comercialização de energia no ambiente de contratação livre. Considerando a natureza destas operações e a influência de variáveis meteorológicas na formação e volatilidade dos preços, as decisões no âmbito da comercialização de energia são tomadas sob condições de incerteza, levando os agentes a buscarem estratégias de contratação para maximização do retorno dos ativos e/ou mitigação dos riscos envolvidos. No setor elétrico brasileiro, a gestão do risco de mercado é realizada principalmente por contratos a termo, de forma a reduzir os impactos adversos da flutuação do PLD. Neste contexto, os objetivos deste estudo são avaliar a aplicabilidade de dois modelos de otimização sob incerteza, estágio único e estocástico de dois estágios, na tomada de decisão de uma comercializadora e comparar as decisões recomendadas pelos modelos. Estes modelos utilizaram uma função de preferência que permite representar a variação do nível de aversão ao risco considerando diferentes bandas de preferência, tendo os seus parâmetros determinados pelo método Analytic Hierarchical Process. Para a construção das curvas forward do modelo estocástico de dois estágios, foi ponderado o preço de mercado observado e as 2.000 séries do PLD da previsão oficial do ONS. Os resultados evidenciaram a efetividade na mitigação do risco para os produtos avaliados. Ademais, devido à redução do custo do arrependimento a partir da modelagem do problema de otimização em dois estágios, este modelo apresentou soluções mais rentáveis quando comparado ao modelo de único estágio. / [en] With the advent of the new model for the electricity sector in 2004, market agents were allowed to sell energy in the free market. Considering the nature of these operations and the influence of meteorological variables on the formation and volatility of prices, energy trading decisions are taken under conditions of uncertainty, leading agents to seek contracting strategies to maximize the return on assets or mitigation of the risks involved. In the Brazilian electricity sector, market risk management is mainly accomplished through forward contracts, in order to reduce the adverse impacts of PLD fluctuation. In this context, the objectives of this study are to evaluate the applicability of two optimization models under uncertainty, single-stage and two-stage stochastic, in the decision making of a trading company and to compare the decisions recommended by the models. These models used a preference function that allows representing the variation of the risk aversion level considering different preference groups, having its parameters determined by the Analytic Hierarchical Process. For the construction of the forward curves of the two-stage stochastic model, the observed market price and the 2,000 PLD series of the ONS official forecast were weighted. The results evidenced the effectiveness in risk mitigation for the evaluated products. Furthermore, due to the reduction in the cost of regret from the two-stage optimization problem modeling, this model presented more cost-effective solutions when compared to the single-stage model.

Financial advisory services currently face many challenges such as adapting to regulations, competing against robot advisors and offering qualitative advice. We use a utility function based on the clients' risk preferences and investigated the value added by advisory services. The data represents real clients that received financial advisory services from an advisory firm, which gives this thesis a unique accuracy. For the calculations we simulated outcomes of the portfolios and computed key values pertaining to the investors' financial positions. Our calculations show that investors on average gain corresponding 1.66 % per year in risk free return on their investments from advisory services. In addition, we show that the client's value of advisory service increased with respect to the investor's risk level and time horizon of investment. / Aktörerna inom finansiell rådgivning står för närvarande inför flera utmaningar, att anpassas efter regleringar, konkurrera mot robotrådgivare och erbjuda hög kvalitet i rådgivningen. Vi har använt en nyttofunktion baserad på kunders riskpreferenser och utrett vilket värde som finansiell rådgivning tillför. De data som använts representerar verklig kunddata från ett rådgivningsföretag, vilket ger denna studie en unik träffsäkerhet. Beräkningarna av nyckeltal för investerarnas finansiella position har gjorts genom simulering av portföljer. Våra beräkningar visar att finansiell rådgivning ger investerare i genomsnitt motsvarande 1.66 % i ökad riskfri avkastning per år efter avgifter och skatter. Dessutom vi visa att rådgivarnas tillförda värde ökar med avseende på investerarnas risknivå och tidshorisont.

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This thesis investigates the market rules of the European carbon market (EU ETS) during 2005-2007. We provide theoretical and empirical analyses of banking and borrowing provisions, price drivers and risk hedging strategies attached to tradable quotas, which were introduced to cover the CO2 emissions of around 10,600 installations in Europe.In Chapter 1, we outline the economic and environmental effects of banking and borrowing on tradable permits markets. More specifically, we examine the banking and borrowing provisions adopted in the EU ETS, and the effects of banning banking between Phases I and II on CO2 price changes. We show statistically that the low levels of CO2 prices recorded until the end of Phase I may be explained by the restriction on the inter-period tranfer of allowances, besides the main explanations that were identified by market observers.In Chapter 2, we identify the carbon price drivers since the launch of the EU ETS on January 1, 2005. We emphasize the central role played by the 2005 yearly compliance event imposed by the European Commission in revealing the net short/long position at the installation level in terms of allowances allocated with respect to verified emissions. The main result of this study features that price drivers of CO2 allowances linked to energy market prices and unanticipated weather events vary around institutional events. Moreover, we show the influence of the variation of industrial production in three sectors covered by the EU ETS on CO2 price changes by applying a disentangling analysis, that has also been extended at the country-level.In Chapter 3, we focus on the risk hedging strategies linked to holding CO2 allowances. By using a methodology applied on stock markets, we recover the changes in investors' average risk aversion. This study shows that, during the time period considered, risk aversion has been higher on the carbon market than on the stock market, and that the risk is linked to an increasing price structure after the 2006 compliance event. With reference to Chapter 1, we finally evaluate how banking may be used as a risk management tool in order to cope with political uncertainty on a tradable permits market. We detail an optimal risk-sharing rule, and discuss the possibility of pooling the risk linked to allowance trading between agents.Overall, this thesis highlights the inefficiencies following the creation of the European carbon market that prevented the emergence of a price signal leading to effective emissions reductions by industrials. However, in a changing institutional environment, these inefficiencies do not seem to have been transfered to the period 2008-2012.

Cette thèse traite de la théorie du risque en finance et en assurance. La mise en pratique du concept de comonotonie, la dépendance du risque au sens fort, est décrite pour identifier l’optimum de Pareto et les allocations individuellement rationnelles Pareto optimales, la tarification des options et la quantification des risques. De plus, il est démontré que l’aversion au risque monotone à gauche, un raffinement pertinent de l’aversion forte au risque, caractérise tout décideur à la Yaari, pour qui, l’assurance avec franchise est optimale. Le concept de comonotonie est introduit et discuté dans le chapitre 1. Dans le cas de risques multiples, on adopte l’idée qu’une forme naturelle pour les compagnies d’assurance de partager les risques est la Pareto optimalité risque par risque. De plus, l’optimum de Pareto et les allocations individuelles Pareto optimales sont caractérisées. Le chapitre 2 étudie l’application du concept de comonotonie dans la tarification des options et la quantification des risques. Une nouvelle variable de contrôle de la méthode de Monte Carlo est introduite et appliquée aux “basket options”, aux options asiatiques et à la TVaR. Finalement dans le chapitre 3, l’aversion au risque au sens fort est raffinée par l’introduction de l’aversion au risque monotone à gauche qui caractérise l’optimalité de l’assurance avec franchise dans le modèle de Yaari. De plus, il est montré que le calcul de la franchise s’effectue aisément. / This thesis deals with the risk theory in Finance and Insurance. Application of the Comonotonicity concept, the strongest risk dependence, is described for identifying the Pareto optima and Individually Rational Pareto optima allocations, option pricing and quantification of risk. Furthermore it is shown that the left monotone risk aversion, a meaningful refinement of strong risk aversion, characterizes Yaari’s decision makers for whom deductible insurance is optimal. The concept of Comonotonicity is introduced and discussed in Chapter 1. In case of multiple risks, the idea that a natural way for insurance companies to optimally share risks is risk by risk Pareto-optimality is adopted. Moreover, the Pareto optimal and individually Pareto optimal allocations are characterized. The Chapter 2 investigates the application of the Comonotonicity concept in option pricing and quantification of risk. A novel control variate Monte Carlo method is introduced and its application is explained for basket options, Asian options and TVaR. Finally in Chapter 3 the strong risk aversion is refined by introducing the left-monotone risk aversion which characterizes the optimality of deductible insurance within the Yaari’s model. More importantly, it is shown that the computation of the deductible is tractable.

本研究探討長期投資人在面臨通貨膨脹風險時的最適投資決策。就長期投資者而言，諸如退休金規劃者等，通貨膨脹是無可避免卻又不易被數量化之風險，因為各國僅公布與之相關的消費者物價指數而沒有公布真實通貨膨脹數值，因此我們延伸Campbell和Viceira(2001)及Brennan和Xia(2002)的模型假設，以消費者物價指數的資訊來校正原先假定符合Vasicek模型之通貨膨脹動態過程。本研究之理論背景為：利用貝式過濾方法(Baysian Filtering Method)，將含有雜訊之消費者物價指數，透過後驗分配得出通貨膨脹動態過程。利用帄賭過程(Martingale Method)求解資產之公帄價格。再引進定值相對風險趨避(Constant Relative Risk Aversion，CRRA)的效用函數，求出最適投資組合下之期末累積財富、各期資產配置以及效用值。 / 本研究歸納數值結果如下： 一、投資期間越長，通貨膨脹學習效果越顯著。投資期間達25年以上時，有學習效果之累積財富為無學習效果時兩倍以上，25年為2.36倍；30年為2.18倍。此外，學習效果對投資人效用改善率於長期投資時也較顯著，投資10年效用改善率為35%，而投資30年則高達1289%，呈非線性成長。以上結果顯示：資產在市場上累積越久，受到通膨影響越明顯，更需要以學習方式動態調整資產配置進行通貨膨脹風險管理。 / 二、風險較趨避之投資人，CRRA參數值越大；於最適投資組合下之期末財富較少，因為風險較趨避投資人偏好低波動度資產組合。風險容忍度低之投資人較需要通貨膨脹之學習，否則效用減損過高，例如CRRA參數為1.5之投資人30年後效用減損65%，CRRA參數為4之投資人效用減損達96.5%。以上數據顯示：風險趨避投資人對風險關注程度較高，考慮學習效果時，較能根據目前通貨膨脹調整資產配置。 / This study examines the optimal portfolio selection incorporating inflation risk learning adjustments for a long-term investor. For long-term investors, it is inevitable to face the uncertainty of inflation. On the other hand, quantifying inflation risk needs more effort since the government announced the information on Consumer Price Index (CPI) rather than the real inflation rates. / In order to measure the inflation rate in planning the long-term investment strategies, we extend the works in Campbell and Viceira (2001) and Brennan and Xia (2002) to construct a stochastic process of the inflation rate. The prior distribution of inflation rate process, which is not directly observable, is assumed to follow the diffusion process. Based on the information of CPI, we then employ the optimal linear filtering equations to estimate the posterior distribution of the inflation rate process. Through these mechanisms, the inflation rate process is closer to reality by learning from CPI. We also construct the optimal portfolio strategy through a Martingale formulation based on the wealth constraints. The optimal portfolio strategies are given in closed-form solutions. / Furthermore, the importance of learning about inflation risk is summarized through the numerical results. (1) When the investment interval is longer, the learning effect becomes more significant. If the investment horizon is longer than 25 years, the wealth accumulation under learning will be twice more than that without learning effect, e.g., the wealth accumulation is approximately 2.36, 2.18 folds at the end of 25, 30 years. Utility increase under learning also become larger for long-term investor, e.g., the utility values will improve 35% after considering learning ability on inflation from 10-year interval, improve 1289% from 30 years. / (2)When the CRRA parameter increases, the investor have lower risk tolerance; and their wealth accumulation become less due to the lower volatility portfolio. A conservative investor requires more learning ability given the inflation, otherwise their utility value will be reduced, e.g., the utility values will be reduced 35% when CRRA=1.5 after 30 years’ investment, 96,5% when CRRA=4.