Shade trees’ implementation into cocoa agroforestry systems in tropical West Africa has proven to have a high potential in increasing farm resilience and mitigating climate change. However, no studies have yet examined the potential future climate suitability for shade trees in the region, which is important when deciding which shade trees to implement. The aim of this study was to predict the current and future climate suitability of shade trees currently used in cocoa agroforestry systems and give recommendations based on the results. It also aimed to examine how different levels of shadetree diversity can impact a farm’s microclimate and how this can be linked to climate suitability for cocoa. To assess climate suitability, a species distribution model was performed for a baseline scenario with the current climate defined as 1970-2000 and for two future scenarios, SSP126 and SSP585, for the time period 2041-2060. To measure microclimate, a microclimatic study was performed in the Ashanti region of Ghana on 16 farms during mid March to mid May 2023 measuring the maximum temperature above cocoa canopy and 15 cm above the ground for three different treatments. The results showed that three species, Khaya senegalensis, Ceiba pentandra and Albiziazygia, were predicted to have the largest habitat areas of climate suitability in West Africa for several of the scenarios. However, it was also identified that the model could be improved when it comes tothe inclusion of more bioclimatic variables, global circulation models (GCMs) and for which futures cenarios to model for. The microclimatic study showed that both farms with a low and high level of shade tree diversity have a significant possibility to buffer the maximum temperature above cocoa canopy, with low diversity farms having a larger buffering capacity. The study also showed that areaswhere several shade tree species are predicted to have a climatically suitable habitat decreased for future scenarios, which could be a risk for the possibility to mitigate climate change for cocoa with shade tree implementation in the future. / Att implementera skuggträd i kakaoskogslantbruk i tropiska Västafrika har visat sig ha en högpotential att öka resiliens på gårdar såväl som att motverka effekterna av klimatförändringar iregionen. Däremot har inga tidigare studier hittills undersökt vilka skuggträdsarter som väntas varalämpliga i framtida klimat. Syftet med den här studien var att uppskatta nutida och framtidalämplighet för skuggträd som nu används i kakaoskogslantbruk och ge rekommendationer utifrånresultaten. Studien hade också som syfte att undersöka hur olika nivåer av diversitet av skuggträd på gårdarna påverkade deras mikroklimat samt hur detta kan kopplas till klimatlämplighet för kakao. Klimatlämplighet uppskattades med en distributionsmodell (eng: “species distribution model”), med ett basscenario för nutida klimat satt som 1970-2000 samt med två framtida klimatscenarier, SSP126 och SSP585, för tidsperioden 2041-2060. Mikroklimat mättes genom en fältstudie som genomfördes på 16 gårdar i Ashantiregionen i Ghana under perioden mitten av mars till mitten av maj. Mikroklimatet mättes för den maximalt uppnådda temperaturen ovanför kakaoträdens lövverk och 15 cm ovanför marken. Resultaten visade att tre arter, Khaya senegalensis, Ceiba pentandra och Albiziazygia, hade störst område där de var lämpliga för flest klimatscenarier i Västafrika. Dessutom identifierades flera sätt att förbättra modellen, bland annat genom att inkludera fler bioklimatiska variabler, fler globala cirkulationsmodeller (GCMs) och genom att förutspå utvecklingen för fler framtida klimatscenarier. För mikroklimat visade resultaten att både en hög och låg diversitet av skuggträd resulterade i att den maximala temperaturen minskade ovanför skuggträdens lövverk, och den minskade mer där diversiteten var låg. Resultaten visade även att för framtida klimatscenarier minskar områdena där flera skuggträd är lämpliga, vilket kan vara problematiskt för möjligheten att bemöta klimatförändringar i framtiden genom skuggträdsimplementering.

To understand the modeling challenges and to examine the important factors considered in Malayan sun bear (Helarctos malayanus) distribution studies, we reviewed 33 peer-reviewed articles published from 2003-2023. These studies used 54 environmental or anthropogenic variable types to investigate the distribution, habitat preference, and home range composition of sun bears. Most variable types are human disturbance (n=4), climate (n=3), topography (n=1), vegetation (n=11), or other ecological factors (n=3). Nevertheless, a number of rarely used variables might also be useful to include in future evaluations (i.e., food abundance), and observational evidence suggests that predator occurrence could also be informative. Importantly, no studies tested the performance of model prediction by using other presence points of the species in a similar or adjacent biogeographical area. In Myanmar, where the bear’s distribution is not well-known, we set up three annual surveys using 120 camera-trap stations in a portion of the Htamanthi Wildlife Sanctuary (HWS) in northern Myanmar during 2016-17 to 2018-19 to identify factors influencing bear distribution. From a total effort of 15,315 trap nights, we obtained 47 independent photo events of sun bears at 16%, 13%, and 9% of the stations each year. We analyzed eight factors potentially influencing the bear distribution and found that the top three ranked models were a combination of elevation, NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), distance to water, and slope. The presence of tigers (Panthera tigris) in the area was found to have a positive relation with mean sun bear occupancy. In this study, we tested the prediction performance of the single-season occupancy model with another dataset. We tested the prediction performance of the top six models in the PresenceAbsence Package and calculated the AUC (Area under receiver curved), TSS (True skill statistics), and Kappa scores. The AUC score ranged from 0.5 to 0.6, while the TSS score ranged from -0.001 to 0.28. None of the top six models’ predictions perfectly agreed with the sanctuary-wide survey data. The discrepancies may be due to the limited sample size, the temporal scale of the prediction, and the presence of other ecological factors (e.g., predators, competitors, or food availability) not accounted for in the habitat use prediction. To improve the prediction performance of occupancy models, we recommend that future sun bear surveys increase the number and size of sampling efforts and include ecological covariates such as potential predators when possible.

Background: Global climate change severely impacts human life, particularly health, as rising temperatures and extreme weather affect physical and mental well-being. Climate change can also alter the risk factors and epidemiology of infectious diseases, notably vector-borne diseases (VBDs), including those transmitted by mosquitoes. The Aedes mosquito, responsible for dengue, poses a significant threat due to its prevalence vector. Dengue prevention lacks effective methods beyond vector control, and the current vaccine has limitations, emphasizing the need for intensified research and prevention strategies to mitigate the expanding dengue burden worldwide. The goal of these studies was to establish a novel risk index as a baseline for improving prevention efforts for Dengue in the US. Methods: An initial scoping review was conducted, looking at the state of literature surrounding risk factors associated with dengue transmission in the Americas and globally. Species distribution models (SDMs) were then constructed using Ae. aegypti occurrence data, and both current and projected climate data, to show the predicted current habitat suitability in North America and the potential projected changes in habitat suitability in 2070 and 2100 under differing climate change conditions. The results of the scoping review and SDMs, as well as the CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index, were used to develop a novel risk index for identifying areas of potential dengue transmission in the Continental United States. Utilizing the results of the Dengue Enhanced Risk Priority Index (DERPI) and the National Park Service’s Planning for a Changing Climate guidebook, an Impact Scenario Plan (ISP) was developed for a select area of the US with the highest potential risk of dengue transmission. Results and Implications: The SDMs show large-scale changes in suitable habitat for Ae. aegypti within North America, with the majority of Mexico, Texas, Florida, and Southern California having increased areas of suitable habitat under both climate change models. The DERPI found that large areas of the southern US were suitable for both vector habitat and viral transmission, putting these regions potentially at risk for dengue transmission. The findings of these studies show the need to begin developing dengue prevention and vector control strategies in the southern US.

Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) plays a key role in a number of biological applications: assessment of temporal trends in distribution, environmental impact assessment and spatial conservation planning. From a statistical perspective, this thesis develops two methods for increasing the accuracy and reliability of maps of density surfaces and provides a solution to the problem of how to collate multiple density maps of the same region, obtained from differing sources. From a biological perspective, these statistical methods are used to analyse two marine mammal datasets to produce accurate maps for use in spatial conservation planning and temporal trend assessment. The first new method, Complex Region Spatial Smoother [CReSS; Scott-Hayward et al., 2013], improves smoothing in areas where the real distance an animal must travel (`as the animal swims') between two points may be greater than the straight line distance between them, a problem that occurs in complex domains with coastline or islands. CReSS uses estimates of the geodesic distance between points, model averaging and local radial smoothing. Simulation is used to compare its performance with other traditional and recently-developed smoothing techniques: Thin Plate Splines (TPS, Harder and Desmarais [1972]), Geodesic Low rank TPS (GLTPS; Wang and Ranalli [2007]) and the Soap lm smoother (SOAP; Wood et al. [2008]). GLTPS cannot be used in areas with islands and SOAP can be very hard to parametrise. CReSS outperforms all of the other methods on a range of simulations, based on their fit to the underlying function as measured by mean squared error, particularly for sparse data sets. Smoothing functions need to be flexible when they are used to model density surfaces that are highly heterogeneous, in order to avoid biases due to under- or over-fitting. This issue was addressed using an adaptation of a Spatially Adaptive Local Smoothing Algorithm (SALSA, Walker et al. [2010]) in combination with the CReSS method (CReSS-SALSA2D). Unlike traditional methods, such as Generalised Additive Modelling, the adaptive knot selection approach used in SALSA2D naturally accommodates local changes in the smoothness of the density surface that is being modelled. At the time of writing, there are no other methods available to deal with this issue in topographically complex regions. Simulation results show that CReSS-SALSA2D performs better than CReSS (based on MSE scores), except at very high noise levels where there is an issue with over-fitting. There is an increasing need for a facility to combine multiple density surface maps of individual species in order to make best use of meta-databases, to maintain existing maps, and to extend their geographical coverage. This thesis develops a framework and methods for combining species distribution maps as new information becomes available. The methods use Bayes Theorem to combine density surfaces, taking account of the levels of precision associated with the different sets of estimates, and kernel smoothing to alleviate artefacts that may be created where pairs of surfaces join. The methods were used as part of an algorithm (the Dynamic Cetacean Abundance Predictor) designed for BAE Systems to aid in risk mitigation for naval exercises. Two case studies show the capabilities of CReSS and CReSS-SALSA2D when applied to real ecological data. In the first case study, CReSS was used in a Generalised Estimating Equation framework to identify a candidate Marine Protected Area for the Southern Resident Killer Whale population to the south of San Juan Island, off the Pacific coast of the United States. In the second case study, changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of harbour porpoise and minke whale in north-western European waters over a period of 17 years (1994-2010) were modelled. CReSS and CReSS-SALSA2D performed well in a large, topographically complex study area. Based on simulation results, maps produced using these methods are more accurate than if a traditional GAM-based method is used. The resulting maps identified particularly high densities of both harbour porpoise and minke whale in an area off the west coast of Scotland in 2010, that might be a candidate for inclusion into the Scottish network of Nature Conservation Marine Protected Areas.

This thesis provides new insight concerning drivers behind differences in arthropod diversity and abundance in Baltic shore ecosystems and how the arthropod communities might be affected when the conditions in the Baltic Sea are altered due to climate change.  The focus has been on climate related changes that are unique for coastal ecosystems, especially sea level rise and changes in the inflow of marine nutrients. As sea levels rise, features in coastal landscapes will be altered, islands and habitats will be flooded and diminished, and structural connectivity within the island landscape will therefore change. This thesis shows that arthropod diversity within the two arthropod groups, spiders and beetles, increases with island size but also that diversity is positively influenced by a high number of islands in the surroundings. A changed distribution and occurrence of marine species, due to climate change or eutrophication, can also affect terrestrial organisms on the shore.  In the Baltic Sea the new conditions following climate change will decrease the prevalence of bladder-wrack and benefit filamentous algae. Algal deposits on shores reflect the marine species composition and a decreased prevalence of bladder-wrack in the Baltic Sea will also be visible on the shores.  This thesis shows that a lower proportion of bladder-wrack in the algal deposits will decrease the diversity and abundance of arthropods in these deposits. Changes in the marine environment may also affect the inflow of insects with aquatic life stages and terrestrial adult stages.  On Baltic shores, prey species with aquatic life stages, especially chironomids, constitute a large proportion of the diet of the terrestrial predatory group, wolf spiders. In freshwater system, the inflow of chironomids is known to decrease with elevated water temperatures if this is true in the Baltic Sea prey availability of wolf spiders would decrease.  This thesis supports the importance of chironomids as a prey for coastal wolf spiders, but also shows that the diet varies over season with dominance of terrestrial prey in early summer shifting to a dominance of marine prey in late summer and autumn. This seasonal variation is primarily due to a gradual increase in the consumption of chironomids over season. Climate change has the potential to alter the biogeographical conditions in coastal landscapes as well as the density and quality of marine nutrient inflow. Sea level rise will diminish and flood islands and this thesis shows that a moderate sea level rise of 0.5 meters would make the total number of islands in the outer part of Stockholm archipelago decrease with about 25 %. Sea level rise could thus have consequences for arthropod diversity in Baltic shore meadows in the near future. The combined effects of sea level rise and changed prevalence of marine species in the Baltic Sea will affect the abundance and diversity of arthropods substantially. The abundance and diversity of spiders and beetles will decrease on shores that today have a high occurrence of bladder-wrack and prey availability for coastal predators might decrease due to a decreased inflow of chironomids. Changes in the arthropod communities could have consequences also further up in the food chain, such as for shore birds feeding on these arthropods. / <p>At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 2: Manuscript. Paper 3: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript.</p>

From an ecological perspective, knowledge of demographic history is highly valuable because population size fluctuations can be matched to known climatic events, thereby revealing great insight into a species’ reaction to past climate change. This in turn enables us to predict how they might respond to future climate scenarios. Prominently, with the advent of high-throughput sequencing it is now becoming possible to assemble genomes of non-model organisms thereby providing unprecedented resolution to the study of demographic history and speciation. This thesis utilises four species of grouse (Aves, subfamily Tetraoninae) in order to explore the demographic history and speciation within this lineage; the willow grouse, red grouse, rock ptarmigan and the black grouse. I, and my co-authors, begin by reviewing the plethora of methods used to estimate contemporary effective population size (Ne) and demographic history that are available to animal conservation practitioners. We find that their underlying assumptions and necessary input data can bias in their application, and thus we provide a summary of their applicability. I then use the whole genomes of the black grouse, willow grouse and rock ptarmigan to infer their population dynamics within the last million years. I find three dominant periods that shape their demographic history: early Pleistocene cooling (3-0.9 Mya), the mid-Brunhes event (430 kya) and the last glacial period (110-10 kya). I also find strong signals of local population history – recolonization and subdivision events – affecting their demography. In the subsequent study, I explore the grouse dynamics within the last glacial period in more detail by including more distant samples and using ecological modelling to track habitat distribution changes. I further uncover strong signals of local population history, with multiple fringe populations undergoing severe bottlenecks. I also determine that future climate change is expected to drastically constrict the distribution of the studied grouse. Lastly, I use whole genome sequencing to uncover 6 highly differentiated regions, containing 7 genes, hinting at their role in adaptation and speciation in three grouse taxa. I also locate a region of low differentiation, containing the Agouti pigmentation gene, indicating its role in the grouse plumage coloration.

A number of emerging vector-borne diseases have the potential to be transmitted in the UK by native mosquitoes. Human infection by some of these diseases requires the presence of communities of multiple vector mosquito species. Mitigating the risk posed by these diseases requires an understanding of the spatial distributions of the UK mosquito fauna. Little empirical data is available from which to determine the distributions of mosquito species in the UK. Identifying areas at risk from mosquito-borne disease therefore requires statistical modelling to investigate and predict mosquito distributions. This thesis investigates the distributions of potential vector mosquitoes in the UK at landscape to national scales. A number of new methodological approaches for species distri- bution modelling are developed. These methods are then used to map and understand the distributions of mosquito communities with the potential to transmit diseases to humans. Chapter 2 reports the establishment of substantial populations of the West Nile virus (WNV) vector mosquito Culex modestus in wetlands in southern England. This represents a drastic shift in the species’ known range and an increase in the risk of WNV transmission where Cx. modestus is present. Chapter 3 develops and applies a new species interaction distribution model which identifies fish and ditch shrimp of the genus Palaemonetes as predators which may restrict the distribution of the potential WNV vector community in these wetlands. Chapter 4 develops a number of methods to make robust predictions of the probability of presence of a species from presence-only data, by eliciting and applying estimates of the species’ prevalence. Chapter 5 introduces a new Bayesian species distribution modelling approach which outperforms existing methods and has number of useful features for dealing with poor- quality data. Chapter 6 applies methods developed in the previous two chapters to produce the first high-resolution distribution maps of potential vector mosquitoes in the UK. These maps identify several wetland areas where vector communities exist which could maintain WNV transmission in birds and transmit it to humans. This thesis makes significant contributions to our understanding of the distributions of UK mosquito species. It also provides methods for species distribution modelling which could be widely applied in ecology and epidemiology.

Le changement climatique est connu pour entraîner une redistribution spatiale des conditions climatiques et avec elle une migration des espèces vers les pôles et les sommets. De tels changements impliquent une réorganisation des communautés végétales dont la nature, l'intensité et le déterminisme sont encore peu connus. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'évaluer, à large échelle spatiale et sur de longs pas de temps, les changements de composition des communautés végétales forestières induits par le réchauffement climatique, ainsi qu'analyser les facteurs écologiques et géographiques contribuant à ces changements à l'échelle de l'espèce et des communautés. La réponse de la flore forestière vis-à-vis du réchauffement climatique a été étudiée à l'échelle du territoire français (~546000 km²) à partir de larges bases de données d'observations floristiques, de données environnementales mesurées et modélisées, et d'une approche modélisatrice basée sur le concept de niche écologique et sur le caractère bio-indicateur des espèces. Dans un premier temps, nous avons montré que le remaniement des communautés végétales a permis la compensation de 0.54°C du réchauffement climatique ayant touché les forêts de montagne entre les périodes 1965–1986 et 1987–2008 (i.e. +1.07°C) contre seulement 0.02°C pour les forêts de plaine (réchauffement = 1.11°C). Cette compensation partielle démontre l'existence d'une dette climatique de la flore induite par le réchauffement climatique. L'importance de cette dette en plaine par rapport aux montagnes provient probablement de l'effet combiné d'un déficit d'extinction et de migration des espèces en plaine conduit respectivement par une plus large tolérance thermique des plantes forestières sur cette zone et par une migration des plantes a priori (i) limitée par l'importante fragmentation des forêts de plaine et (ii) inférieure au déplacement des conditions thermiques en plaine. Les particularités écologiques et géographiques des forêts de plaine et de montagne nous ont amené à considérer deux types de menaces induites par le changement climatique : (i) l'attrition biotique en plaine, et (ii) la perte d'une biodiversité historique et spécifique en montagne (réduction de l'habitat des espèces alpines aboutissant à leur disparition) remplacée probablement par des espèces plus communes. Dans un second temps, les effets de facteurs abiotiques, biotiques et géographiques pouvant amplifier ou réduire les changements de distribution des espèces et de composition des communautés induits par le réchauffement climatique ont été caractérisés. [...] Suite et fin du résumé dans la thèse. / Climate change is known to cause a spatial redistribution of climatic conditions which is driving poleward and upward range shifts. Such shifts imply a reorganization of plant communities which is still poorly understood. Here we aimed to assess the changes in plant communities' composition induced by climate warming at a global scale and over a long time period, as well as to analyze the effects of ecological and geographical factors that contribute to these changes at the species and community levels. The response of the forest flora to the raising temperature has been studied across the French metropolitan territory (~546,000 km²) from large floristic databases, measured and modeled environmental data, and a modeling approach based on the concept of ecological niche and the bioindicator properties of plant species. First, we showed that the reshuffling of plant communities allowed to recover 0.54°C of the temperature increase between the periods 1965–1986 and 1987–2008 in highland forests (i.e. +1.07°C), while it recovered only 0.02°C in lowland forest (warming = 1.11 °C). This partial compensation demonstrates the current occurrence of a climatic debt in forest vegetation caused by climate warming. The high climatic debt observed in lowland forest compared to the highland one is likely due to extinction and migration debts caused by a wider temperature tolerance of plants in lowland communities and a plant migration capacity (i) limited by the high spatial fragmentation of the lowland forest habitat and (ii) shorter than the shift of thermal conditions in lowland areas, respectively. The ecological and geographical specificity of lowland and highland forests led us to consider two different threats induced by climate change: (i) biotic attrition in lowland areas, and (ii) loss of a specific and an historic biodiversity in highland forest (mountaintop extinction of alpine species due the surface decrease of their potential habitat) likely replaced by more common species assemblage (increase of generalist plants). Second, the effects of abiotic, biotic and geographical factors which can amplify or reduce the magnitude of both the species range shifts and the reshuffling of plant communities induced by global warming were characterized. Last and final summary in the thesis.

De nombreuses recherches se focalisent sur l'étude des aires de distribution des espèces qui se décalent vers des conditions plus adaptées à leurs besoins physiologiques sous l'effet du changement climatique. Le choix des indices utilisés pour caractériser l'écologie des espèces et définir leur vulnérabilité au réchauffement en cours est souvent conditionné par leur disponibilité, alors qu'il devrait être basé sur les connaissances en écophysiologie qui les concernent. D'autre part, la résolution spatiale parfois grossière utilisée n'est pas toujours pertinente au regard de l'échelle à laquelle les processus biologiques se déroulent. Dans ce cadre, l'objectif de ce travail est de cartographier à fine résolution spatiale les bilans en eau des sols et leurs différentes composantes à l'échelle des forêts de France, et d'évaluer leur intérêt pour modéliser la distribution ou la productivité des espèces au regard des indices traditionnellement utilisés. Dans un premier temps, nous avons modélisé et cartographié les différentes composantes du bilan en eau des sols, et tout particulièrement le rayonnement solaire et la réserve utile maximale en eau (RUM) des sols forestiers à partir des relevés de l'Inventaire Forestier National (IFN). Ces données ont été combinées avec des températures et des précipitations pour spatialiser le bilan en eau des sols forestiers de France. Les principaux résultats montrent l'importance de la nébulosité dans la prise en compte du calcul du rayonnement solaire, et l'inefficacité des indices dérivés de l'exposition pour en simuler les valeurs à l'échelle de la France. Nous avons également déterminé qu'il est possible de réaliser avec des informations simples à collecter une carte des RUM des sols forestiers de France. Elle permet de prédire la croissance des essences avec une efficacité comparable aux valeurs relevées sur des placettes et d'améliorer la modélisation de la distribution de certaines essences. Enfin, nous démontrons que les calculs de bilans en eau qui prennent en compte la réserve en eau des sols sont plus efficaces que les bilans hydriques climatiques ou les pluies, particulièrement pour ce qui concerne les espèces hygrophiles ou xérophiles. Ces résultats laissent penser que l'importance de l'eau a été sous-estimée dans l'analyse de la distribution des espèces et l'étude des conséquences du changement climatique sur les plantes. Les données produites permettent de progresser dans la connaissance de l'écologie des espèces et de mieux caractériser la vulnérabilité des espèces, ouvrant la porte à la création d'outils plus fonctionnels pour aider les gestionnaires à évaluer les impacts du changement de climat et à s'y adapter. / Numerous researches focus on species distribution shifts toward ecological conditions most suited to plants under climate change. Ecological indices used to characterize species ecology and to define their vulnerability over broad areas are often at coarse resolution and are determined by data availability. The aim of this work was to map soil water balance and its different components at a fine spatial resolution, and to evaluate their interest to model plant distribution and growth over the whole French forests. We firstly modeled and mapped the solar radiation and the soil water holding capacity of forest soils. These data were combined with temperatures and precipitation to map the soil water balance. For solar radiation, the main results showed that this parameter is only accurately predicted at the French scale when cloudiness is taken into account. We also showed that soil water holding capacity can be mapped at the French scale using the basic information collected on numerous plots from the French national forest inventory. Values extracted from the soil water holding capacity map allowed predicting tree species growth with efficiency similar to values estimated on plots. We also demonstrated soil water balance is more efficient than climatic water balance or precipitation to model species distribution, mainly for hygrophilous and xerophilous species. These results suggest importance of available water could be underestimated when determining the ecological niche of species. These maps allow to improve species ecology knowledge and to help in the determination of their vulnerability area to climate change.

La température est le paramètre abiotique qui influence de façon majoritaire les traits d’histoire de vie des espèces ectothermes. Pour appréhender les relations entre physiologie, environnement et histoire évolutive et leur influence respective sur la délimitation des aires de distribution des espèces, ce travail exploite les caractéristiques thermiques du milieu souterrain. Les résultats réfutent l’hypothèse de sténothermie des deux organismes hypogés étudiés Niphargus rhenorhodanensis et Proasellus valdensis et prouvent que l’histoire évolutive, la dispersion ou la compétition sont des paramètres importants dans l’établissement des aires de distribution des espèces souterraines. En outre, ce travail caractérise pour la première fois chez des organismes souterrains, un gène codant pour des protéines de choc thermique et montre l’importante sensibilité cellulaire de N. rhenorhodanensis face à une augmentation de température / Temperature is the abiotic factor that most influences the life-history traits of ectothermic organisms. In order to study the relationships between physiology, environment and evolutionary history and their respective role in the determination of species distribution areas, this work takes advantage of the thermal caracteristics of subterranean aquatic biotopes. Our results refuted stenothermy in both studied hypogean organisms Niphargus rhenorhodanensis and Proasellus valdensis and they showed that evolutionary history, dispersal and competition are important factors that determine the distribution of subterranean species. Moreover, this work characterized for the first time in subterranean organisms a gene encoding heat shock proteins and demonstrated the high cellular sensitivity of N. rhenorhodanensis to increased water temperature