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伴隨估計風險時的動態資產配置 / Dynamic asset allocation with estimation risk湯美玲, Tang, Mei Ling Unknown Date (has links)
本文包含關於估計風險與動態資產配置的兩篇研究。第一篇研究主要就當須估計的投資組合其投入參數具有高維度特質的觀點下,探究因忽略不確定性通膨而對資產配置過程中帶來的估計風險。此研究基於多重群組架構下所發展出的新投資決策法則,能夠確實地評價不確定性通膨對資產報酬的影響性,並在應用於建構大規模投資組合時,能有效減少進行最適化投資決策過程中所需的演算時間與成本。而將此模型應用於建構全球ETFs投資組合的實證結果則進一步顯示,若在均值變異數架構下,因建構大型投資組合時須估計高維度投入參數而伴隨有大量估計風險時,參數估計方式建議結合採用貝氏估計方法來估算資產報酬的一階與二階動差,其所對應得到的投資組合樣本外績效會比直接採用歷史樣本動差來得佳。此實證結果亦隱含:在均值變異數架構下,穩定的參數估計值比起最新且即時的參數估計資訊對於投資組合的績效來得有益。同時,若當投入參數的樣本估計值波動很大時,增加放空限制亦能有利投組樣本外績效。
第二篇文章則主要處理當處於對數常態證券市場下時,投資組合報酬率不具有有限動差並導致無法在均值變異數架構下發展出最適化封閉解時的難題。本研究示範此時可透過漸近方法的應用,有效發展出在具有放空限制下,考量了估計風險後的簡單投資組合配置法則,並且展示如何將其應用至實務上的資產配置過程以建構全球投資組合。本文的數值範例與實證模擬結果皆顯示,估計風險的存在對於最適投資組合的選擇有實質的影響,無估計風險下得出的最適投資組合,不必然是存有估計風險下的最適投資組合。此外,實證模擬結果亦證明,當存有估計風險時,本文所發展的簡單法則,能使建構出的投資組合具有較佳的樣本外績效表現。 / This dissertation consists of two essays on dynamic asset allocation with regard to dealing with estimation risk as being in different uncertainties in the mean-variance framework. The first essay concerns estimation errors from disregarding uncertain inflation in terms of the need in estimating high-dimensional input parameters for portfolio optimization. This study presents simplified and valid criteria referred to as the EGP-IMG model based on the multi-group framework to be capable of pricing inflation risk in a world of uncertainty. Empirical studies shows the proposed model indeed provides a smart way in picking worldwide ETFs that serves well to reduce the amount of costs and time in constructing a global portfolio when facing a large number of investment products. The effect of Bayesian estimation on improving estimation risk as the decision maker is subject to history sample moments for input parameters estimations is meanwhile examined. The results indicate portfolios implementing the Stein estimation and shrinkage estimators offer better performance compared with those applying the history sample estimators. It implicitly demonstrates that yielding stable estimates for means and covariances is more critical in the MV framework than getting the newest up-to-date parameters estimates for improving portfolio performance. Though short-sales constraints intuitively should hurt, they do practically contribute to uplift portfolio performance as being subject to volatile estimates of returns moments.
The second essay undertakes the difficulty that the probability distribution of a portfolio's returns may not have finite moments in a lognormal-securities market, and thus leads to the arduous problem in solving the closed-form solutions for the optimal portfolio under the mean-variance framework. As being in a lognormal-securities market, this study systematically delivers a simple rule in optimization with regard to the presence of estimation risk. The simple rule is derived accordingly by means of asymptotic properties when short sales are not allowed. The consequently numerical example specifies the detailed procedures and shows that the optimal portfolio with estimation risk is not equivalent to that ignoring the existence of estimation risk. In addition, the portfolio performance based on the proposed simple rule is examined to present a better out-of-sample portfolio performance relative to the benchmarks.
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Dispersión retributiva y resultados: evidencia empírica en las empresas cotizadas españolasKühl, Ralf 07 October 2011 (has links)
La globalidad de la problemática a través de diferentes niveles jerárquicos, funciones y roles del conjunto de empleados lleva al análisis de un conjunto limitado de factores relacionados con la retribución enmarcado en el ámbito de empresas españolas cotizadas y directamente en el papel de la retribución y de las diferencias retributivas a nivel del equipo de alta dirección. Este trabajo estudia factores contextuales que mayor influencia tienen sobre la fijación del nivel retribución del equipo de alta dirección, considerando las características del trabajo de esos mismos –posición jerárquica, discrecionalidad, interdependencia de tareas, e incertidumbre– y cómo dichas características pueden influir en las diferencias salariales entre los propios miembros del equipo de alta dirección. Completado por la verificación del efecto del gobierno corporativo y el papel de los mecanismos de supervisión para controlar a los directivos (el marco de la teoría de
la agencia) se enriquece este trabajo sobre el contexto de dispersión retributiva y resultados de la empresa. / The globality of the problem through different hierarchical levels, functions and roles of all employees takes to the analysis of a limited set of factors related to compensation in the context of listed Spanish companies and directly on the role of pay and the pay differences at the top management team. This paper examines the contextual factors of main influence on establishing remuneration levels of top management team, considering the nature of their working activities- hierarchical position, discretion, task interdependence, and uncertainty-and how these characteristics may influence pay differences between the members of the top management team. Completed by the exploration of effects of corporate governance and the role of supervision mechanisms to control managers in the agency theory context this paper is enriched in the topic concerning pay differences and operating results.
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Introduction of New Products in the Supply Chain : Optimization and Management of RisksEl KHOURY, Hiba 31 January 2012 (has links) (PDF)
Shorter product life cycles and rapid product obsolescence provide increasing incentives to introduce newproducts to markets more quickly. As a consequence of rapidly changing market conditions, firms focus onimproving their new product development processes to reap the benefits of early market entry. Researchershave analyzed market entry, but have seldom provided quantitative approaches for the product rolloverproblem. This research builds upon the literature by using established optimization methods to examine howfirms can minimize their net loss during the rollover process. Specifically, our work explicitly optimizes thetiming of removal of old products and introduction of new products, the optimal strategy, and the magnitudeof net losses when the market entry approval date of a new product is unknown. In the first paper, we use theconditional value at risk to optimize the net loss and investigate the effect of risk perception of the manageron the rollover process. We compare it to the minimization of the classical expected net loss. We deriveconditions for optimality and unique closed-form solutions for single and dual rollover cases. In the secondpaper, we investigate the rollover problem, but for a time-dependent demand rate for the second producttrying to approximate the Bass Model. Finally, in the third paper, we apply the data-driven optimizationapproach to the product rollover problem where the probability distribution of the approval date is unknown.We rather have historical observations of approval dates. We develop the optimal times of rollover and showthe superiority of the data-driven method over the conditional value at risk in case where it is difficult to guessthe real probability distribution
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Commande h∞ à base de modèles non entiers / H∞ control of fractional order modelsFadiga, Lamine 12 June 2014 (has links)
Les études menées permettent d’étendre la méthodologie de commande H∞ aux modèles décrits par des équations différentielles faisant intervenir des ordres de dérivation non entiers. Deux approches sont proposées. La première consiste à réécrire le modèle non entier comme un modèle entier incertain afin de pouvoir utiliser les méthodes de commande H∞ développées pour les modèles entiers. La seconde approche consiste à développer des conditions LMI spécifiques aux modèles non entiers à partir de leur pseudo représentation d’état. Ces deux approches sont appliquées à l’isolation vibratoire d’un pont. / The general theme of the work enables to extend H∞ control methodology to fractional order models. Two approaches are proposed. The first one consists in rewriting the fractional order model as an uncertain integer order model in order to use existing H∞ control methods for integer order models. The second approach consists in developing specific LMI conditions for fractional order models based on their pseudo state space representation. These two approaches are applied to the vibratory isolation of a bridge.
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Wave Propagation in Healthy and Defective Composite Structures under Deterministic and Non-Deterministic FrameworkAjith, V January 2012 (has links) (PDF)
Composite structures provide opportunities for weight reduction, material tailoring and integrating control surfaces with embedded transducers, which are not possible in conventional metallic structures. As a result there is a substantial increase in the use of composite materials in aerospace and other major industries, which has necessitated the need for structural health monitoring(SHM) of aerospace structures. In the context of SHM of aircraft structures, there are many areas, which are still not explored and need deep investigation. Among these, one of the major areas is the development of efficient damage models for complex composite structures, like stiffened structures, box-type structures, which are the building blocks of an aircraft wing structure. Quantification of the defect due to porosity and especially the methods for identifying the porous regions in a composite structure is another such area, which demands extensive research. In aircraft structures, it is not advisable for the structures, to have high porosity content, since it can initiate common defects in composites such as, delamination, matrix cracks etc.. In fact, there is need for a high frequency analysis to detect defects in such complex structures and also to detect damages, where the change in the stiffness due to the damage is very small. Lamb wave propagation based method is one of the efficient high frequency wave based method for damage detection and are extensively used for detecting small damages, which is essentially needed in aircraft industry. However, in order, to develop an efficient Lamb wave based SHM system, we also need an efficient computational wave propagation model. Developing an efficient computational wave propagation model for complex structures is still a challenging area. One of the major difficulty is its computational expense, when the analysis is performed using conventional FEM. However, for 1D And 2D composite structures, frequency domain spectral finite element method (SFEM), which are very effective in sensing small stiffness changes due to a defect in a structure, is one of the efficient tool for developing computationally efficient and accurate wave based damage models. In this work, we extend the efficiency of SFEM in developing damage models, for detecting damages in built-up composite structures and porous composite structure. Finally, in reality, the nature of variability of the material properties in a composite structure, created a variety of structural problems, in which the uncertainties in different parameters play a major part. Uncertainties can be due to the lack of good knowledge of material properties or due to the change in the load and support condition with the change in environmental variables such as temperature, humidity and pressure. The modeling technique is also one of the major sources of uncertainty, in the analysis of composites. In fact, when the variations are large, we can find in the literatures available that the probabilistic models are advantageous than the deterministic ones. Further, without performing a proper uncertain wave propagation analysis, to characterize the effect of uncertainty in different parameters, it is difficult to maintain the reliability of the results predicted by SFEM based damage models. Hence, in this work, we also study the effect of uncertainty in different structural parameters on the performance of the damage models, based on the models developed in the present work.
First, two SFEM based models, one based on the method of assembling 2D spectral elements and the other based on the concept of coupling 2D and 1D spectral elements, are developed to perform high frequency wave propagation analysis of some of the commonly used built-up composite structures. The SFEM model developed using the plate-beam coupling approach is then used to model wave propagation in a multiple stiffened structure and also to model the stiffened structures with different cross sections such as T-section, I-section and hat section.
Next, the wave propagation in a porous laminated composite beam is modeled using SFEM, based on the modified rule of mixture approach. Here, the material properties of the composite is obtained from the modified rule of mixture model, which are then used in SFEM to develop a new model for solving wave propagation problems in porous laminated composite beam. The influence of the porosity content on the parameters such as wave number, group speed and also the effect of variation in theses parameters on the time responses are studied first. Next, the effect of the length of the porous region (in the propagation direction) and the frequency of loading, on the time responses, is studied. The change in the time responses with the change in the porosity of the structure is used as a parameter to find the porosity content in a composite beam.
The SFEM models developed in this study is then used in the context of wave based damage detection, in the next study. First ,the actual measured response from a structure and the numerically obtained response from a SFEM model for porous laminated composite beam are used for the estimation of porosity, by solving a nonlinear optimization problem. The damage force indicator (DFI) technique is used to locate the porous region in a beam and also to find its length, using the measured wave propagation responses. DFI is derived from the dynamic stiffness matrix of the healthy structure along with the nodal displacements of the damaged structure. Next, a wave propagation based method is developed for modeling damage in stiffened composite structures, using SFEM, to locate and quantify the damage due to a crack and skin-stiffener debonding. The method of wave scattering and DFI technique are used to quantify the damage in the stiffened structure.
In the uncertain wave propagation analysis, a study on the uncertainty in material parameters on the wave propagation responses in a healthy metallic beam structure is performed first. Both modulus of elasticity and density are considered uncertain and the analysis is performed using Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) under the environment of SFEM. The randomness in the material properties are characterized by three different distributions namely normal, Weibul and extreme value distribution and their effect on wave propagation, in beam is investigated. Even a study is performed on the usage of different beam theories and their uncertain responses due to dynamic impulse load.
A study is also conducted to analyze the wave propagation response In a composite structure in an uncertain environment using Neumann expansion blended with Monte-Carlo simulation (NE-MCS) under the environment of SFEM. Neumann expansion method accelerates the MCS, which is required for composites as there are many number of uncertain variables. The effect of the parameters like, fiber orientation, lay-up sequence, number of layers and the layer thickness on the uncertain responses due to dynamic impulse load, is thoroughly analyzed.
Finally, a probabilistic sensitivity analysis is performed to estimate the sensitivity of uncertain material and fabrication parameters, on the SFEM based damage models for a porous laminated composite beam. MCS is coupled with SFEM, for the uncertain wave propagation analysis and the Kullback-Leibler relative entropy is used as the measure of sensitivity. The sensitivity of different input variables on the wave number, group speed and the values of DFI, are mainly considered in this study.
The thesis, written in nine chapters, presents a unified document on wave propagation in healthy and defective composite structure subjected to both deterministic and highly uncertain environment.
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Kvinnors upplevelse av att leva med bröstcancer : En studie baserad på självbiografier / Women´s experience of living with breast cancer : A study based on autobiographiesGreen, Jolina, Marthinsson, Frida January 2020 (has links)
Bakgrund: Tidigare forskning visar att insjukna i bröstcancer påverkar hela individens livsvärld, vilket ställer höga krav på sjuksköterskans omvårdnadsarbete. Det behövs fler studier som visar hur dessa individer upplever sin situation. Syfte: Att belysa kvinnors upplevelse av att leva med bröstcancer.Metod: En kvalitativ studie baserad på fem självbiografier med induktiv ansats har använts. Materialet analyserades med hjälp av en manifest innehållsanalys.Resultat: Analysprocessen resulterade i nio underkategorier och tre huvudkategorier; En utveckling av copingstrategier, En oviss framtid och En känsla av trygghet. Resultatet visade att en bröstcancerdiagnos påverkade kvinnans liv drastiskt och att cancerbeskedet var chockartat. Behandlingen och dess biverkningar upplevdes som påfrestande både kroppsligt och mentalt. Genom olika strategier klarade kvinnorna att hantera sin vardag. Behovet av att prata med någon och dela med sig till andra var centralt hos kvinnorna och minskade känslan av ensamhet. Resultatet visade också att ovissheten inför framtiden var känsloladdad och därför hade stödet från närstående och vården en betydande roll under deras sjukdomstid.Slutsats: Kvinnornas upplevelse av att leva med bröstcancer påverkar livsvärlden negativt, både kroppsligt och mentalt. Sjuksköterskan har en central roll under hela sjukdomsperioden, där engagemang, lyhördhet och bemötande är betydelsefullt. Omvårdnadsarbetet bör därför utgå från ett helhetsperspektiv för att skapa en professionell vårdrelation som stärker kvinnans livskvalitet, hälsa och trygghet. Vidare forskning behövs för att få en djupare förståelse och kompetens bland annat kring hur bröstcancerbehandlade kvinnors sexualitet påverkas samt hur man kan stärka olika former av stöd för de mest sårbara kvinnorna. / Background: Previous research shows that breast cancer affects the individual’s entire world, which places high demands on the nurse´s health care efforts. More studies are needed that show how these individuals perceive their situation.Objective: To highlight women’s experience of living with breast cancer.Method: A qualitative study based on five autobiographies with inductive approach has been used. The material was analyzed using a manifest content analysis.Results: The analysis process resulted in nine subcategories and three main categories; A development of coping strategies, An uncertain future and A sense of security. The results showed that a breast cancer diagnosis drastically affected the woman’s life and that the cancer notification was distressing. The treatment and its side effects were perceived as stressful both physically and mentally. Through various strategies, the women managed to maintain their everyday lives. The need to talk to someone and share with others was central to the women and reduced the feeling of loneliness. The results also showed that uncertainty for the future was emotionally charged and therefore the support of relatives and health professionals played a significant role during their illness.Conclusion: The women’s experience of living with breast cancer negatively affects her world, both physically and mentally. The nurse plays a central role throughout the illness period, where commitment, responsiveness and attentiveness are important. Nursing work should therefore be based on a comprehensive perspective in order to create a professional care relationship that strengthens a woman’s quality of life, health and safety. Further research is needed to gain a deeper understanding and competence about how breast cancer-treated women’s sexuality is affected and how to strengthen different forms of support for the most vulnerable women.
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Introduction of New Products in the Supply Chain : Optimization and Management of Risks / Introduction de Nouveaux Produits dans la Supply Chain : Optimisation et Management des RisquesEl-Khoury, Hiba 31 January 2012 (has links)
Les consommateurs d’aujourd’hui ont des goûts très variés et cherchent les produits les plus récents. Avec l’accélération technologique, les cycles de vie des produits se sont raccourcis et donc, de nouveaux produits doivent être introduits au marché plus souvent et progressivement, les anciens doivent y être retirés. L’introduction d’un nouveau produit est une source de croissance et d’avantage concurrentiel. Les directeurs du Marketing et Supply Chain se sont confrontés à la question de savoir comment gérer avec succès le remplacement de leurs produits et d’optimiser les coûts de la chaîne d’approvisionnement associée. Dans une situation idéale, la procédure de rollover est efficace et claire: l’ancien produit est vendu jusqu’à une date prévue où un nouveau produit est introduit. Dans la vie réelle, la situation est moins favorable. Le but de notre travail est d’analyser et de caractériser la politique optimale du rollover avec une date de disponibilitéstochastique pour l’introduction du nouveau produit sur le marché. Pour résoudre le problème d’optimisation,nous utilisons dans notre premier article deux mesures de minimisation: le coût moyen et le coût de la valeurconditionnelle à risque. On obtient des solutions en forme explicite pour les politiques optimales. En outre, nous caractérisons l’influence des paramètres de coûts sur la structure de la politique optimale. Dans cet esprit, nous analysons aussi le comportement de la politique de rollover optimale dans des contextes différents. Dans notre deuxième article, nous examinons le même problème mais avec une demande constante pour le premier produit et une demande linéaire au début puis constante pour le deuxième. Ce modèle est inspiré par la demande de Bass. Dans notre troisième article, la date de disponibilité du nouveau produit existe mais elle est inconnue. La seule information disponible est un ensemble historique d’échantillons qui sont tirés de la vraie distribution. Nous résoudrons le problème avec l’approche data drivenet nous obtenons des formulations tractables. Nous développons aussi des bornes sur le nombre d’échantillons nécessaires pour garantir qu’avec une forte probabilité, le coût n’est pas très loin du vrai coût optimal. / Shorter product life cycles and rapid product obsolescence provide increasing incentives to introduce newproducts to markets more quickly. As a consequence of rapidly changing market conditions, firms focus onimproving their new product development processes to reap the benefits of early market entry. Researchershave analyzed market entry, but have seldom provided quantitative approaches for the product rolloverproblem. This research builds upon the literature by using established optimization methods to examine howfirms can minimize their net loss during the rollover process. Specifically, our work explicitly optimizes thetiming of removal of old products and introduction of new products, the optimal strategy, and the magnitudeof net losses when the market entry approval date of a new product is unknown. In the first paper, we use theconditional value at risk to optimize the net loss and investigate the effect of risk perception of the manageron the rollover process. We compare it to the minimization of the classical expected net loss. We deriveconditions for optimality and unique closed-form solutions for single and dual rollover cases. In the secondpaper, we investigate the rollover problem, but for a time-dependent demand rate for the second producttrying to approximate the Bass Model. Finally, in the third paper, we apply the data-driven optimizationapproach to the product rollover problem where the probability distribution of the approval date is unknown.We rather have historical observations of approval dates. We develop the optimal times of rollover and showthe superiority of the data-driven method over the conditional value at risk in case where it is difficult to guessthe real probability distribution
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The legalisation and regulation of online gambling in South AfricaMorgan, Kirsty Kate January 2017 (has links)
Magister Legum - LLM (Mercantile and Labour Law)
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