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La thèse étudie la dynamique et la persistance de l’inflation dans les pays en développement, particulièrement ceux des pays de la Zone UEMOA, en mettant en exergue les spécificités de ces économies. Le premier chapitre, consacré à l’évaluation de la persistance, révèle que le degré de persistance de l'inflation est faible dans ces pays, ce qui constitue un atout pour les autorités monétaires. Dans le chapitre 2, il a été défini un cadre théorique plus approprié à l’analyse de la persistance de l’inflation dans les pays de la sous-région. L’approche a permis de montrer que le degré de persistance de l’inflation dans ces pays ne dépendait pas uniquement des politiques monétaire et de change, mais aussi négativement du poids du secteur vivrier local dans l’économie. Dans le chapitre 3, la thèse analyse les écarts d’inflation dans les pays membres de l’UEMOA, en examinant la β-convergence des différentiels d'inflation. Les estimations révèlent que, d’une part, les écarts d’inflation se sont fortement réduits à l’intérieur de l'Union et que, d’autre part, ils restent fortement persistants avec la zone Euro. Le chapitre 4 est consacré à l’évaluation du rôle des différents facteurs et utilise ensuite une spécification spatiale en panel, pour tester les effets de contagion entre pays. Les estimations indiquent une prédominance des facteurs globaux et des effets de contagion entre pays dont l'ampleur dépend du poids des exportations de chaque pays vers les autres pays de la sous région. / This thesis examines the inflation dynamics and persistence in developing countries, especially in the UEMOA zone, highlighting the specificities of these economies. The first chapter, reveals that the inflation persistence degree, in these countries, is low which represents an asset to the monetary authorities. In Chapter 2, it was defined a more appropriate theoretical framework to analyze the inflation persistence in the countries of the sub-region. The approach allowed to demonstrate that the inflation persistence degree in these countries is not only dependent on monetary and exchange rate policies, but also negatively to the weight of local food sector in the economy. Chapter 3, analyzes the inflation differentials in the UEMOA member countries, by examining the β - convergence of inflation differentials. Estimations show that the inflation differentials are greatly reduced within the Union and they are highly persistent with the Euro zone. Chapter 4, is devoted to assessing the role of various factors and then uses a spatial panel specification to test the spillover effect between countries. Estimations indicate a predominance of global factors and contagion between countries whose magnitude depends on the weight of exports to other countries in the sub-region.

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Dans cette thèse, nous nous intéressons aux questions de l’hétérogénéité inobservée et des solutions en coin dans les modèles de choix d’assolements. Pour répondre à ces questions, nous nous appuyons sur un modèle de choix de production multicultures avec choix d’assolement de forme NMNL, dont nous proposons des extensions. Ces extensions conduisent à des problèmes spécifiques d’estimation, auxquels nous apportons des solutions. La question de l’hétérogénéité inobservée est traitée en considérant une spécification à paramètres aléatoires. Ceci nous permet de tenir compte des effets de l’hétérogénéité inobservée sur l’ensemble des paramètres du modèle. Nous montrons que les versions stochastiques de l’algorithme EM sont particulièrement adaptées pour estimer ce type de modèle.Nos résultats d’estimation et de simulation montrent que les agriculteurs réagissent de façon hétérogène aux incitations économiques et que ne pas tenir compte de cette hétérogénéité peut conduire à des effets simulés de politiques publique biaisés.Pour tenir compte des solutions en coin dans les choix d’assolement, nous proposons une modélisation basée sur les modèles à changement de régime endogène avec coûts fixes associés aux régimes. Contrairement aux approches basées sur des systèmes de régression censurées, notre modèle est cohérent d’un point de vue micro-économique. Nos résultats montrent que les coûts fixes associés aux régimes jouent un rôle important dans le choix des agriculteurs de produire ou non certaines cultures et qu’ils constituent, à court terme, un déterminant important des c / In this thesis, we are interested in questions of unobserved heterogeneity and corner solutions in acreage choice models. To answer these questions, we rely on a NMNL acreage share multi-crop models, of which we propose extensions. These extensions lead to specific estimation problems, to which we provide solutions.The question of unobserved heterogeneity is dealt with by considering a random parameter specification. This allows us to take into account the effects of the unobserved heterogeneity on all the parameters of the model. We show that the stochastic versions of the EM algorithm are particularly suitable for estimating this type of modelOur estimation and simulation results show that farmers react heterogeneously to economic incentives and that ignoring this heterogeneity can lead to biased simulated effects of public policies.In order to take account of the corner solutions in acreage choices, we propose modelling based on endogenous regime switching models with regime fixed costs. Unlike approaches based on censored regression systems, our model is “fully” consistent from a micro-economic viewpoint. Our results show that the regime fixed costs play an important role in farmers’ choice to produce or not some crops and they are, in the short term, an important determinant of acreage choices.

Submitted by Marcel Augusto Caparoz (marcel.caparoz@gmail.com) on 2015-09-22T14:39:38Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Marcel Caparoz - EVOLUÇÃO DA CONCENTRAÇÃO DE RENDA NO BRASIL ENTRE 1977 E 2013.pdf: 2708478 bytes, checksum: d8aba42f57adb15eb1c8f39149d899a5 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2015-09-22T14:41:03Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Marcel Caparoz - EVOLUÇÃO DA CONCENTRAÇÃO DE RENDA NO BRASIL ENTRE 1977 E 2013.pdf: 2708478 bytes, checksum: d8aba42f57adb15eb1c8f39149d899a5 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-09-22T14:44:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marcel Caparoz - EVOLUÇÃO DA CONCENTRAÇÃO DE RENDA NO BRASIL ENTRE 1977 E 2013.pdf: 2708478 bytes, checksum: d8aba42f57adb15eb1c8f39149d899a5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-26 / Este trabalho procura analisar a evolução da concentração de renda familiar para o Brasil e seus vinte e sete estados entre os anos de 1977 e 2013 através das informações da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostragem de Domicílios (PNAD) do IBGE. Foram consideradas quatro faixas distintas de renda: 1% mais ricos, 10% mais ricos, 10% mais pobres e 50% mais pobres. O resultado do estudo se fundamentou na análise descritiva dos dados, assim como nas informações disponibilizadas pelos testes de componentes não observados e do modelo de mudança de regime de Markov-switching. Em relação às famílias mais ricas do país, foi constatado um movimento divergente entre as duas faixas consideradas neste estudo, sendo registrada uma redução do nível de concentração de renda nas famílias 10% mais ricas, enquanto que as famílias da faixa 1% mais ricas não apresentaram o mesmo movimento, permanecendo praticamente no mesmo patamar ao longo de todo o período analisado. Quando consideradas as famílias mais pobres do país, confirma-se a elevação do nível de apropriação da renda ao longo dos últimos 37 anos de história, embora com grandes indícios que esta trajetória já tenha chegado ao fim. É possível observar, entretanto, que a distribuição dos ganhos recentes não foi uniforme entre as diversas regiões brasileiras, com destaque para o Nordeste, que não registrou elevação consistente da apropriação de renda pelas famílias 10% mais pobres, indicando que os mais pobres da região permanecem em situação vulnerável. / This paper analyses the evolution of household income concentration in Brazil and in its twenty seven states between 1977 and 2013 through the statistics of National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) from IBGE. Three different income brackets were considered: top 1%, top 10%, bottom 10% and bottom 50%. The results of the study were based on descriptive analyses of the data, as well as on information provided by unobservable component tests and Markov-switching regime change model. The analyses of the top 10% household income share revealed a consistent process of decline in the level of concentration in Brazil and its regions; 25 out of 27 Brazilian states were in a low concentration regime in 2013. On the contrary, the top 1% did not show the same results, considering the level of income concentration remained practically the same. The bottom 10% household income analysis reveals an increase in the share of total income in the last 27 years, although there is great evidence that this process has already come to an end. However it is possible to observe that the recent income gains in inequality reduction were uneven in different Brazilian regions, with emphasis being placed in Northeast, where the appropriation of the income by the bottom 50% was not consistent, suggesting that the poorest of the region remain in a vulnerable situation.

Submitted by Rafael da Rocha Mendonça Bacciotti (rafael.bacciotti@gmail.com) on 2017-08-13T23:42:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael Bacciotti_defesa.pdf: 1094193 bytes, checksum: 7a7f6313d22efa00eb4133077c507ec5 (MD5) / Rejected by Joana Martorini (joana.martorini@fgv.br), reason: Falta a ficha catalográfica. on 2017-08-14T13:23:19Z (GMT) / Submitted by Rafael da Rocha Mendonça Bacciotti (rafael.bacciotti@gmail.com) on 2017-08-21T18:34:28Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael Bacciotti_final.pdf: 959318 bytes, checksum: a65761f39f40377669fe2d34280903ab (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Joana Martorini (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2017-08-21T18:55:31Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael Bacciotti_final.pdf: 959318 bytes, checksum: a65761f39f40377669fe2d34280903ab (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-22T12:21:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael Bacciotti_final.pdf: 959318 bytes, checksum: a65761f39f40377669fe2d34280903ab (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-11 / A análise do mercado de trabalho em perspectiva histórica com base em séries de alta frequência no Brasil é uma tarefa desafiadora, pois não há uma pesquisa longa, abrangente e ao mesmo tempo compatível em termos metodológicos e conceituais que permita acompanhar o desempenho das diversas variáveis de maneira adequada. Essas questões foram exacerbadas no início de 2016, quando a Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME) foi interrompida pelo IBGE. Desde então, a Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNAD Contínua) passou a ser a única referência do instituto sobre o mercado de trabalho em alta frequência. Nesse contexto, este trabalho tem como objetivo retroagir a taxa de desemprego trimestral da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNAD Contínua), iniciada em março de 2012. Duas séries foram geradas com base na metodologia de modelos de espaço de estados e o filtro de Kalman: a primeira iniciada em 1976 e outra em 1984, utilizando-se como referência, nos dois casos, as taxas de desemprego obtidas na PNAD anual e na Pesquisa de Emprego e Desemprego (PED - Dieese). / The analysis of the labor market in historical perspective in Brazil is a challenging task, since there is not a long, comprehensive and at the same time methodologically and conceptually compatible survey that allows monitoring the performance of the various variables in an appropriate manner. These issues were exacerbated in early 2016, when the Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME) was interrupted by IBGE. Since then, the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNAD Contínua) has become the Institute's only reference to the high-frequency labor market monitoring. In this context, the objective of this study is to retropolate the unemployment rate from PNAD Contínua, begun in March 2012. Two series were produced from the state space model methodology, with the Kalman filter, one since 1976 and another since 1984, using as reference the annual PNAD and the Pesquisa de Emprego e Desemprego (PED-Dieese).

Le changement structurel en agriculture suscite beaucoup d’intérêt de la part des économistes agricoles ainsi que des décideurs politiques. Pour prendre en compte l’hétérogénéité du comportement des agriculteurs, une approche par les modèles de mélange de chaînes de Markov est appliquée pour la première fois en économie agricole pour analyser ce processus. La performance de cette approche est d’abord testée en utilisant une forme simplifiée du modèle, puis sa forme générale est appliquée pour étudier l’impact de certaines mesures de politique agricole. Pour identifier les principaux canaux d’interdépendance entre exploitations voisines dans les processus du changement structurel, une approche de mélange non-Markovienne a été appliquée pour modéliser la survie et l’agrandissement des exploitations agricolesTrois principales conclusions découlent de cette thèse. Tout d’abord, la prise en compte de l’hétérogénéité dans les processus de transition des exploitations agricoles permet de mieux représenter le changement structurel et conduit à des prédictions plus précises de la distribution des exploitations, comparé aux modèles généralement utilisés jusqu’ici. Deuxièmement, l’impact des principaux facteurs du changement structurel dépend lui aussi des types non-observables d’exploitations mis en évidence. Enfin, le cadre du modèle de mélange permet également de révéler différents types de relations inobservées entre exploitations voisines qui contribuent au changement structurel observé à un niveau global ou régional. / Structural change in farming has long been the subject of considerable interest among agricultural economists and policy makers. To account for heterogeneity in farmers’ behaviours, a mixture Markov modelling framework is applied to analyse this process for the first time in agricultural economics. The performance of this approach is first investigated using a restrictive form of the model, and its general form is then applied to study the impact of some drivers of structural change, including agricultural policy measures. To identify channels through which interdependency between neighbouring farms arises in this process, the mixture modelling approach is applied to analyse both farm survival and farm growth. The main conclusions of this thesis are threefoldFirstly, accounting for the generally unobserved heterogeneity in the transition process of farms allows better representing structural change in farming and leads to more accurate predictions of farm-size distributions than the models usually used so far. Secondly, the impacts of the main drivers of structural change themselves depend on the specific unobservable farm types which are revealed by the model. Lastly, the mixture modelling approach enables identifying different unobserved relationships between neighbouring farms that contributes to the structural change observed at an aggregate or regional level.

In the first chapter of this thesis, we investigate the impact of human capital and wage structure on the gender pay in a panel of European countries using a newly available and appropriate database for cross-country comparisons and a comparable methodology for each country. <p><p>Our first question is :What role do certain individual characteristics and choices of working men and women play in shaping the cross-country differences in the gender pay gap? What is the exact size of the gender pay gap using the “more appropriate” database available for our purpose? Giving that there are mainly only two harmonized data-sets for comparing gender pay gap throughout Europe: the European Community Household Panel (ECHP) and the European Structure of Earning Survey (ESES). Each database having its shortages: the main weakness of the ECHP is the lack of perfect reliability of the data in general and of wages in particular. However the main advantage of this database is the panel-data dimension and the information on both households and individuals. The data of the ESES is, on the contrary, of a very high standard but it only covers the private sector and has a cross-sectional dimension. Furthermore only few countries are currently available :Denmark, Belgium, Spain, Ireland and Italy. <p>We use the European Structure of Earning Survey (ESES) to analyse international differences in gender pay gaps in the private sector based on a sample of five European economies: Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, Italy and Spain. Using different methods, we examine how wage structures, differences in the distribution of measured characteristics and occupational segregation contribute to and explain the pattern of international differences. Furthermore, we take account of the fact that indirect discrimination may influence female occupational distributions. We find these latter factors to have a significant impact on gender wage differentials. However, the magnitude of their effect varies across countries.<p><p>In the second chapter, we analyse the persistence of the gender pay differentials over time in Europe and better test the productivity hypothesis by taking into account unobserved heterogeneity. <p><p>Our second question is :What is the evolution of the pay differential between men and women over a period of time in Europe? And what is the impact of unobserved heterogeneity? <p>The researcher here provides evidence on the effects of unobserved individual heterogeneity on estimated gender pay differentials. Using the European Community Household Panel (ECHP), we present a cross-country comparison of the evolution of unadjusted and adjusted gender pay gaps using both cross-section and panel-data estimation techniques. The analysed countries differ greatly with respect to labour market legislation, bargaining practices structure of earnings and female employment rates. On adjusting for unobserved heterogeneity, we find a narrowed male-female pay differential, as well as significantly different rates of return on individual characteristics. In particularly, the adjusted wage differential decreases by 7 per cent in Belgium, 14 per cent in Ireland, between 20-30 per cent Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain and of 41 per cent and 54 per cent in the UK and in Denmark respectively. <p><p>In the third chapter, we investigate causes of the gender pay gap beyond the gender differences in observed and unobserved productive characteristics or simply the sex. Explanations of the gender pay gap may be the penalty women face for having children. Obviously, the motherhood wage penalty is relevant to larger issues of gender inequality given that most women are mothers and that childrearing remains a women’s affair. Thus, any penalty associated with motherhood but not with fatherhood affects many women and as such contributes to gender inequalities as the gender pay gap. Furthermore, the motherhood wage effect may be different along the wage distribution as women with different earnings may not be equal in recognising opportunities to reconcile their mother’s and earner’s role. This brings us to our third question. <p><p>Our third question is :What is the wage effect for mothers of young children in the household? And does it vary along the wage distribution of women?<p>This chapter provides more insight into the effect of the presence of young children on women’s wages. We use individual data from the ECHP (1996-2001) and both a generalised linear model (GLM) and quantile regression (QR) techniques to estimate the wage penalty/bonus associated with the presence of children under the age of sixteen for mothers in ten EU Member States. We also correct for potential selection bias using the Heckman (1979) correction term in the GLM (at the mean) and a selectivity correction term in the quantile regressions. To distinguish between mothers according to their age at the time of their first birth, wage estimations are carried out, separately, for mothers who had their first child before the age of 25 (‘young mothers’) and mothers who had their first child after the age of 25 (‘old mothers’). Our results suggest that on average young mothers earn less than non-mothers while old mothers obtain a gross wage bonus in all countries. These wage differentials are mainly due to differences in human capital, occupational segregation and, to a lesser extent, sectoral segregation between mothers and non-mothers. This overall impact of labour market segregation, suggests a “crowding” explanation of the family pay gap – pay differential between mothers and non-mothers. Nevertheless, the fact that we still find significant family pay gaps in some countries after we control for all variables of our model suggests that we cannot reject the “taste-based” explanation of the family gap in these countries. Our analysis of the impact of family policies on the family pay gap across countries has shown that parental leave and childcare policies tend to decrease the pay differential between non-mothers and mothers. Cash and tax benefits, on the contrary, tend to widen this pay differential. Sample selection also affects the level of the mother pay gap at the mean and throughout the wage distribution in most countries. Furthermore, we find that in most countries inter-quantile differences in pay between mothers and non-mothers are mainly due to differences in human-capital. Differences in their occupational and sectoral segregation further shape these wage differentials along the wage distribution in the UK, Germany and Portugal in our sample of young mothers and in Spain in the sample of old mothers.<p><p>In the fourth chapter, we analyse the combined effect of motherhood and the family status on women’s wage.<p> <p>Our fourth question is :Is there a lone motherhood pay gap in Europe? And does it vary along the wage distribution of mothers?<p>Substantial research has been devoted to the analysis of poverty and income gaps between households of different types. The effects of family status on wages have been studied to a lesser extent. In this chapter, we present a selectivity corrected quantile regression model for the lone motherhood pay gap – the differential in hourly wage between lone mothers and those with partners. We used harmonized data from the European Community Household Panel and present results for a panel of European countries. We found evidence of lone motherhood penalties and bonuses. In our analysis, most countries presented higher wage disparities at the top of the wage distribution rather than at the bottom or at the mean. Our results suggest that cross-country differences in the lone motherhood pay gap are mainly due to differences in observed and unobserved characteristics between partnered mothers and lone mothers, differences in sample selection and presence of young children in the household. We also investigated other explanations for these differences such as the availability and level of childcare arrangements, the provision of gender-balanced leave and the level of child benefits and tax incentives. As expected, we have found significant positive relationship between the pay gap between lone and partnered mothers and the childcare, take-up and cash and tax benefits policies. Therefore improving these family policies would reduce the raw pay gap observed. <p> / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Excessive unobserved firepower expenditures by Allied forces during the Vietnam War defied the traditional counterinsurgency principle that population protection should be valued more than destruction of the enemy. Many historians have pointed to this discontinuity in their arguments, but none have examined the available firepower records in detail. This study compiles and analyzes available, artillery-related U.S. and Allied archival records to test historical assertions about the balance between conventional and counterinsurgent military strategy as it changed over time. It finds that, between 1965 and 1970, the commanders of the U.S. Military Assistance Command, Vietnam (MACV), Generals William Westmoreland and Creighton Abrams, shared significant continuity of strategic and tactical thought. Both commanders tolerated U.S. Army, Marine Corps, and Allied unobserved firepower at levels inappropriate for counterinsurgency and both reduced Army harassment and interdiction fire (H&I) as a response to increasing budgetary pressure. Before 1968, the Army expended nearly 40 percent of artillery ammunition as H&I – a form of unobserved fire that sought merely to hinder enemy movement and to lower enemy morale, rather than to inflict any appreciable enemy casualties. To save money, Westmoreland reduced H&I, or “interdiction” after a semantic name change in February 1968, to just over 29 percent of ammunition expended in July 1968, the first full month of Abrams’ command. Abrams likewise pursued dollar savings with his “Five-by-Five Plan” of August 1968 that reduced Army artillery interdiction expenditures to nearly ten percent of ammunition by January 1969. Yet Abrams allowed Army interdiction to stabilize near this level until early 1970, when recurring financial pressure prompted him to virtually eliminate the practice. Meanwhile, Marines fired H&I at historically high rates into the final months of 1970 and Australian “Harassing Fire” surpassed Army and Marine Corps totals during the same period. South Vietnamese artillery also fired high rates of H&I, but Filipino and Thai artillery eschewed H&I in quiet areas of operation and Republic of Korea [ROK] forces abandoned H&I in late 1968 as a direct response to MACV’s budgetary pressure. Financial pressure, rather than strategic change, drove MACV’s unobserved firepower reductions during the Vietnam War.