Made available in DSpace on 2014-07-29T16:27:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Glayce - Dissertacao PDF.pdf: 3767144 bytes, checksum: 1dff151e3e2af4861f6ac69fdbf0c798 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-06-20 / The purpose of this dissertation was to study the possible dialogue between art and literature because of the literary work of João Cabral de Melo Neto, Morte e vida severina and painter production of Candido Portinari, in particular the series of 1944 called: Retirantes, Criança morte e Enterro na rede, which the content that unites them is an expression of how the northeastern refugees dealt with death, indicate that Melo Neto and Portinari the migration process and the flight of the misfortunes experienced in the northeastern backlands seems to represent the possible output. Through a literature review and analysis of the poem and the works of Portinari, we conclude that to represent the drama experienced by these refugees, Portinari used expressionist aesthetic resources and the deformation and Melo Neto sought through the Pernambuco Regionalism and folklore, elements to portray the same situation painted by Portinari. Art and literature dialogue situations in common: the desire to express the way that these Brazilians were reluctant because of the difficulties caused by drought / O objetivo desta dissertação foi estudar o diálogo possível entre a arte e a literatura em razão da obra literária de João Cabral de Melo Neto, Morte e vida severina e a produção do pintor Cândido Portinari, nomeadamente da série Retirantes do ano de 1944, Criança morta, Enterro na rede e Retirantes, cujo conteúdo que as une, a expressão de como os retirantes nordestinos lidavam com a morte, indicam que tanto em Melo Neto como em Portinari, o processo migratório e a fuga dos infortúnios vividos no sertão nordestino parece representar a saída provável. Por meio de um levantamento bibliográfico e análise do poema e das obras de Portinari, concluímos que, para representar o drama vivenciado por esses retirantes, Portinari usou recursos estéticos e a deformação expressionista e Melo Neto buscou por meio do Regionalismo e do folclore pernambucano, elementos para retratar a mesma situação pintada por Portinari. A arte e a literatura dialogam situações em comum: o desejo de expressar o modo com que esses brasileiros relutavam contra as dificuldades causadas pela seca.

FundaÃÃo Cearense de Apoio ao Desenvolvimento Cientifico e TecnolÃgico / A RegiÃo Metropolitana de Fortaleza, no Estado do Cearà à composta por uma diversificada paisagem geomorfolÃgica, estruturada e modificada ao longo de milhÃes de anos durante a era geolÃgica. Entre as diversas morfologias, as formas originadas a partir do Ãltimo evento vulcÃnico ocorrido no Nordeste brasileiro hà 30 milhÃes merecem total apreÃo devido sua singularidade morfogenÃtica. Tais relevos tiveram suas gÃneses ligadas a partir da aÃÃo de um hot spot que ocorreu nesta Ãrea e juntos recebem o nome de FormaÃÃo Messejana. Esta formaÃÃo compÃe-se de uma dezena de pequenos relevos que se dispÃe em setores da margem continental ao longo da regiÃo metropolitana de Fortaleza. Dentre estes estÃo os relevos vulcÃnicos do Caruru, do Ancuri e PÃo-de-aÃÃcar. Esta pesquisa tem como objetivo: estabelecer a origem, estruturaÃÃo, caracterizaÃÃo morfolÃgica e ambiental destes relevos, assim como, definir as etapas da evoluÃÃo geomorfolÃgica da paisagem local. Para compreender tais objetivos buscamos se aprofundar na bibliografia sobre o assunto, interpretaÃÃo de material cartogrÃfico de diversas escalas, dados fÃsicos-ambientais com apoio de ferramentas de geoprocessamento e visitas a ÃrgÃos pÃblicos e a campo. Como resultados podemos concluir que os trÃs relevos da FormaÃÃo Messejana analisados neste trabalho apresentam-se em formas de Necks arredondados (Caruru e PÃo-de-AÃÃcar) e elipsoidal (Ancuri) e sÃo compostos por rochas alcalinas. Tais relevos se caracterizam por apresentarem extensÃes e altitudes bem diferentes, vertentes Ãngremes, solos poucos desenvolvidos e vegetaÃÃo de pequeno porte. Por fim, o Caruru, apresenta-se parcialmente destruÃdo devido à extraÃÃo das rochas para a construÃÃo civil, enquanto que no Ancuri esta atividade cessou hà aproximadamente sete anos. / The Metropolitan Area of Fortaleza, capital of the Cearà State, North-east Brazil, is composed by a diversified geomorphologic landscape, which has been structured and modified during geological times. Among this diversity, there are forms originated by the last volcanic event occurred in the Brazilian northeast, 30 millions ago, which create a very singular local morphology. Such prominences were probably originated by the action of a âhot spotâ. The magma extrusion resulting of this action created a geological domain named  Formation Messejana Â. This formation is composed by a set of ten volcanic reliefs, as small prominences disposed in many sectors of the city of Fortaleza coastal area and adjacencies. Among these prominences are the Caruru, Ancuri and PÃo de AÃucar hills. The present research has as objective to establish the origin, the processes of morphological structuration, the morphological characterization and the environmental situation of these volcanic prominences, as well as define the phases of morphological evolution of the local landscape. For this purpose, the following stages have been developed: bibliographical research about the matter, interpretation of cartographical data, with the use of diverse scales and thematic maps and cartographical geoprocessing techniques, and field work. As results, we are able to conclude that the three prominences of the Formation Messejana analyzed in this work present form of dome-like necks (Caruru and PÃo de AÃucar) and ellipsoidal form (Ancuri), being composed by alkaline rocks. Such prominences are characterized for presenting different extensions and altitudes, steep slopes, poorly developed soils and sparse vegetation cover. In the present moment, the Caruru hill is a place of mining activity, being partially destroyed due to the extraction of the rocks for the civil construction. This situation creates environmental problems, which may be extended to other volcanic hills, fact that put in danger of eradication these singular elements of the Cearà geomorphic landscape.

Desenvolvida a partir da percepção de que o geofísico do sertão e do litoral nordestino brasileiro influenciaram as composições de Oswaldo de Souza (1904-1995), natural do Rio Grande do Norte, esta dissertação examina as canções de Oswaldo de Souza e Waldemar Henrique a fim de identificar aspectos em comum, listando elementos geofísicos da região norte e nordeste do Brasil pertinentes a ambos os compositores. Esta pesquisa também aborda as canções no que se refere às relações entre poema e música, extraindo delas indicações interpretativas baseadas nas características relacionadas ao geofísico a que os compositores se reportam. Esta análise foi realizada com base no Referencial de Análise de Obras Corais do Professor Dr. Marco Antônio da Silva Ramos da Universidade de São Paulo (USP); na dissertação de mestrado da cantora e professora Márcia Jorge Aliverti, da Universidade Federal do Pará, em sua dissertação de mestrado sobre as canções Lendas Amazônicas de Waldemar Henrique, defendida na Escola de Comunicações e Artes da USP em 2003; na pesquisa biográfica realizada pelo professor e músico Cláudio Augusto Pinto Galvão; na entrevista com a professora e cantora Maria de Fátima de Brito realizada em 2009 e no parecer Técnico Pericial que ratifica que as anotações encontradas nas partituras das canções Juazeiro e Jangada foram, de fato, de Oswaldo de Souza. Este tema nos conduz a uma reflexão mais profunda sobre como entender o processo de composição nas canções de Oswaldo de Souza e sua confluência com a obra de Waldemar Henrique. / Building from the notion that the geophysics of the Brazilian northeastern backwoods and cost have influenced composer Oswaldo de Souza (1904 1995), who is originally from Rio Grande do Norte, this dissertation examines songs by Oswaldo de Souza and Waldemar Henrique in order to find aspects they have in common, listing geophysical elements of the northern and northeastern parts of Brazil relevant to both composers. This research also approaches the songs regarding the relations between the poem and the music, extracting interpretative hints based on characteristics related to the geophysics referred to by the composers. The analyzes was made with reference to the Referencial de Análise de Obras Corais by Professor D. Marco Antonio da Silva Ramos of the USP University of São Paulo; to the dissertation of singer and professor Márcia Jorge Aliverti, of the Federal University of Pará on the songs Legends of the Amazon by Waldemar Henrique, submitted at the School of Communication and Art at USP, in 2003; to a bibliographic research conducted by professor and musician Claudio Augusto Pinto Galvão; to an interview given by professor and singer Maria de Fátima de Brito in 2009 and to a juridical report that states that hand-written notes on the songs Juazeiro and Jangada were actually of Oswaldo de Souza. This theme leads us into a deeper reflection on how to understand the process in composition in Oswaldo de Souzas songs and its convergence with Waldemar Henriques work.

Este trabalho teve como objetivo central verificar e analisar, através dos trabalhadores pendulares da Aglomeração Urbana do Nordeste (AUNe) do Rio Grande do Sul que se deslocavam por meio de transporte coletivo, os determinantes do movimento pendular na região no ano de 2012. Esses determinantes são um indicativo relevante de dimensionamento do mercado de trabalho, assim como de desenvolvimento regional, e a importância de estudálos, especificamente por meio dos trabalhadores, se faz devido à difusão das tendências urbanas ocorridas nos grandes centros, pelo potencial que esse movimento tem em se alastrar pelo território nacional e, fundamentalmente, em razão do crescimento das cidades de porte médio e das aglomerações urbanas no interior do país. O suporte teórico que dá sustentação ao surgimento dessas aglomerações é encontrado nas teorias dos lugares centrais e dos polos de crescimento, pois é através das relações dinâmicas e das disparidades da distribuição das atividades econômicas no espaço geográfico ou no espaço econômico que a teoria da polarização auxilia na compreensão da hierarquização das regiões e dos efeitos da mobilidade da população. Metodologicamente, foi utilizada uma survey que consistiu em uma pesquisa através da aplicação de questionários a uma amostra de 430 trabalhadores pendulares da AUNe. Buscando as atividades fora do município de residência, além de oferecer melhores condições econômicas/financeiras, o trabalhador pendular reforça as transformações no espaço geoeconômico com suas movimentações cotidianas, refletindo numa dinâmica socioeconômica diferenciada, evidenciando a atração que os polos acabam exercendo sobre as outras regiões e, também, como se constitui o mercado de trabalho que se estabelece por lógicas distintas. Além do retrato do perfil dos trabalhadores pendulares que se deslocam na AUNe, a pesquisa apontou que é forte a tendência dos efeitos da polarização sobre o mercado de trabalho nesta região, e que esses efeitos são proporcionados pela cidade de porte médio de Caxias do Sul, que apresentou maior movimento centrípeto, sendo responsável por cerca de 45% dos destinos dos trabalhadores pendulares na região. Com as exceções das cidades de Santa Tereza e Monte Belo do Sul, todas as demais cidades apresentaram uma pendularidade cruzada. Ao fim foi observado que existem dois tipos de determinantes que atuam sobre o trabalhador pendular, sendo eles: o determinante de estímulo – o qual pode ser relacionado ao fator ou motivador primário que fez com que o indivíduo procurasse atividades de trabalho em outro município; e o determinante de continuidade – o qual é pertinente ao motivo pelo qual o indivíduo não migra para a cidade em que trabalha, dando vida e realizando continuamente o movimento pendular. Analisando os dois determinantes, os resultados apontam que o primeiro reforça a teoria de que, mesmo numa aglomeração urbana interiorana, o motivo dominante inicial nas decisões do trabalhador ainda é de natureza econômica, enquanto o determinante de continuidade agrega na discussão teórica do movimento pendular os fatores sociais, os quais passam a ser o motivo dominante na continuidade deste fenômeno. Assim, pode-se inferir que a hipótese certamente se confirma, pois ficou evidenciado que o movimento pendular de trabalhadores é influenciado por fatores que compõem dois tipos de determinantes, sendo que no determinante de continuidade estão incluídos fatores distintos daqueles apresentados pelo determinante inicial de estímulo. / The aim of this thesis is to verify and analyze the commuting determinants at the Northeast Urban Agglomeration of Rio Grande do Sul (NeUA) in the year 2012 through the commuter workers who traveled in this urban agglomeration by public transport. These determinants are a relevant indicator of the labor market as well as the regional development. The importance of studying these determinants through the workers is due to the diffusion of the urban tendencies occurring in the large centers, the potential of commuting to spread throughout the country, and primarily because of the growth of medium-size cities and urban agglomeration within the country. The theoretical framework that supports the emergence of these agglomeration is found within Central Place Theory and Growth Pole Theory, since it is through the dynamic relations and the disparities in the distribution of economic activities at geographic or economic space that the polarization theory helps to comprehend the hierarchization of the regions and the effects of the population mobility. Methodologically, a survey was conducted that included the application of questionnaires in a sample of 430 commuter workers of the NeUA. Seeking for activities outside the city of residence, the commuter worker improves his economic/financial condition and, in addition, reinforces the transformation at geo-economic space with his daily movements. This reflects a different socioeconomic dynamic and highlights both the attraction that the pole ends up exercising over other regions as well as the conditions of the labor market, which are established by different logics. Besides the profile picture of the commuter workers, the research pointed out that there is a strong tendency for the polarization effects on the labor market in the study region. The research revealed that those effects are provided by the medium-size city of Caxias do Sul, which showed a greater centripetal movement, being responsible for almost 45% of the commuters’ destination of this region. With the exception of Santa Tereza and Monte Belo do Sul, all other cities within the NeUA presented a cross commuter. At the end, it was observed that two types of determinants exist that operate over the commuter: the determinant of stimulus – which can be related to the primary motivator or factor that led the person to seek for work activities in another city; and, the continuity determinant – associated with the reason why the person does not migrate to the city in which he works, given life and continuation to commuter. Analyzing those two determinants, the results indicated that the first one reinforces the theory that even in an inland urban agglomeration the first dominant motive over the workers' decision continues to be of economic nature, while the continuity determinant adds to the commuter theoretical discussion social factors, which become the dominant motives in the continuity of this phenomenon. Thus, it can be inferred that the hypothesis is confirmed because it was evident that the commute of workers is influenced by factors that comprehends two types of determinants. Is important to add, that was revealed that in the continuity determinant are included other factors than those presented by the determinant of stimulus.

A região Nordeste, primeira a ser ocupada após a chegada dos portugueses no Brasil no século XVI, possui 53% do seu território sob regime do clima semiárido. Nesse espaço, onde vivem 12 milhões de pessoas, as crises causadas por escassez de água, apontadas como barreiras ao desenvolvimento, são conhecidas há mais de um século, causaram perdas agrícolas, migrações e mortes. A região, de conhecida variabilidade climática, é ainda uma das mais vulneráveis do globo às mudanças climáticas. Até o fim desse século, previsões indicam que a temperatura pode subir 4 C em relação à era pré-industrial, com forte impacto sobre os recursos hídricos e desertificação. Diante desse cenário, medidas que oferecem às populações locais condições de se adaptarem se fazem urgentes. Proposto há mais de um século como solução dos problemas trazidos pela escassez de água no semiárido, a transposição do rio São Francisco passou a ser implantada a partir de 2007 sob nome oficial de Projeto de Integração do rio São Francisco com as Bacias Hidrográficas do Nordeste Setentrional (PISF). Trata-se da maior obra de infraestrutura hídrica do país, projetada para transferir 26,4 m3/s por dois eixos principais, Norte e Leste, o volume transportado pelos canais é destinado principalmente ao consumo humano e dessedentação animal. Esta dissertação tem o objetivo de analisar o Eixo Leste do PISF como potencial medida de adaptação às mudanças climáticas. A estratégia de investigação aplicada nesse trabalho interdisciplinar se enquadra na pesquisa qualitativa, apoia-se em documentos, imagens, entrevistas não estruturadas e visitas de campo. A pesquisa conclui que a distribuição de água feita pelo Eixo Leste do PISF não contribui para que as populações mais vulneráveis do semiárido se adaptem às mudanças climáticas, mas que o projeto tem potencial para se converter em tal medida. / The Brazilian Northeast region, the first to be occupied after the arrival of the Portuguese in the 16th century, has 53% of its territory under a semi-arid climate regime. This space is home to 12 million people, it has been hit by crises caused by water shortages, which are understood as barriers to development. Known by its climatic variability, the semiarid portion of the Northeast is one of the world\'s most vulnerable region to climate change. By the end of this century, predictions indicate that temperature could rise by 4 C as compared to the pre- industrial time, with a strong impact on water resources and desertification. Given this scenario, it is urgent to discuss measures that offer the local population conditions to adapt. Proposed more than a century ago as a solution to the problems brought about by the water scarcity in the semiarid, the project to divert Brazil\'s Sao Francisco river began to be implemented in 2007 under the official name of the São Francisco River Integration Project with the Northern Northeast Hydro Basins (PISF). It is the largest water infrastructure project in the country, designed to transfer 26.4 m3/s through two main axes, Northern and Eastern. The volume transported by the channels is mainly intended for human and animal consumption. This dissertation aims to analyze the Eastern Axis of the PISF of the Northeast of Brazil as a potential adaptation to climate change measure. The research strategy applied in this interdisciplinary work fits the qualitative research, relies on documents, images, unstructured interviews and field visits. The research concludes that the distribution of water by the Eastern Axis of the PISF does not contribute to the adaptation of most vulnerable populations in the semiarid region, but that PISF has the potential to convert to that such measure.

O objetivo do nosso esforço analítico neste trabalho de pesquisa incide na compreensão do processo de transformação de uma fração do território, iniciando pela análise do território original indígena até chegar ao desvendamento das novas territorialidades camponesas resultantes as da atuação do Movimento dos Trabalhadores Rurais Sem Terra - MST. É esta questão que norteia a presente pesquisa, cujo recorte geográfico é o Noroeste do Paraná, uma fração desse Estado que teve um rápido processo de transformação territorial num curto espaço de tempo. Para compreendermos esta metamorfose partimos do pressuposto de que a lógica da construção do território é uma unidade dialética em que simultaneamente ocorrem a construção, a destruição, a manutenção e, evidentemente, a transformação. Nesse contexto, procuramos desvendar tal processo através da identificação de três momentos históricos: o do território original indígena, o do advento da formação da propriedade privada, com o desenvolvimento da colonização, e por fim, o da construção das novas territorialidades camponesas, objeto da tese. Sendo assim, a análise das evidências para compreendermos o processo de transformação do território está desenvolvida da maneira a seguir descrita. Após a introdução, no primeiro capítulo, expomos os caminhos de construção da investigação, identificando o recorte geográfico em que ela ocorre e apresentando a reflexão teóricometodológica e os conceitos que sustentam esta pesquisa. No segundo capítulo, somando-nos às pesquisas dos estudiosos que tratam da questão indígena no Norte do Paraná, procuramos, da mesma maneira contribuir para a desmistificação do discurso hegemônico do \"vazio demográfico\" implantado nesta região no período em que estava sendo colonizada e mostrar que a região estudada, até um passado recente que coincide com o período da colonização, tinha como seus primeiros habitantes a população autóctone, sendo, portanto, território original dos povos indígenas. No terceiro capítulo, procuramos compreender, utilizando entrevistas com fontes orais, o desenvolvimento do processo de colonização que se inicia nos primórdios da década de 1950. Paralelamente à colonização, destacamos, igualmente os acontecimentos que envolvem os conflitos pela posse da terra na região. Por fim, no quarto capítulo o trabalho demonstra que após a fase de ocupação efetuada através da colonização, a partir de meados da década de 1980, ocorre uma nova forma de ocupação do território, desenvolvida pelo MST, a qual vai influenciar diretamente a construção das novas territorialidades camponesas, através das desapropriações dos grandes latifúndios improdutivos e imissão de posse aos camponeses. / The aim of the analytical effort, in this study, focus on the understanding of the transformation process happening in a determined territory fraction. It started with the investigation of the original indian territory up to revealing the new peasants` territorialities, which resulted from the acting of the Landless Workers Movement (LWM), known in Brazil as MST Movement. That issue directs the present study, whose geographical focus is a fraction of the state - Northeast of Paraná, which in a short period of time has undergone a fast transformation process. In order to understand such a metamorphosis, it was presumed that, the logic of territory construction is a dialectic unit, in which the construction, as well as the destruction, maintenance and transformation occur simultaneously. In such a context, the transformation process was submitted to an investigation, by identifying three historical movements: the original indian territory, the advent of forming private properties, happening with the colonization development, and finally, the construction of new peasants` territorialities in fact the main aim of the present study. Thus, further, the development of the evidence analysis is described, in order to promote the comprehension concerning the process of territory transformation. After introducing the theme, the first chapter focus on the ways used to construct the investigation, thus identifying the geographical area in which it occurs, and presenting the theoretical-methodological reflection, as well as the concepts on which the present study is based. In the second chapter, joining our study to other studies dealing with Indian issues focusing the North of Parana State, there was an attempt to contribute to demystify the hegemonic discourse of \'demographic emptiness\' implanted in that region during the colonization period. The aim was to show that till a recent past, which coincides with the colonization period, the region under investigation had the autochthon population as its first inhabitants, therefore, being a territory originally from indian people. In the third chapter, oral interviews used to understand the development of the colonization process, which started in the 50´s are explored. Simultaneously to the colonization, happenings involving conflicts for possessing the land are pointed out. Finally, in the fourth chapter it is demonstrated that, after the occupation phase through the colonization, a new form of territory occupation happened in the 80´s. Such occupation was developed by the movement of landless people, which has been influencing directly the construction of new peasants` territorialities, through the dispossession or expropriation of some large land areas, considered as non- productive latifundiuns, thus resulting in emitting legal documents of property favoring the peasants.

In sedimentary basins, rock thermal conductivity can vary both laterally and vertically, thus altering the basin’s thermal structure locally and regionally. Knowledge of the thermal conductivity of geological formations and its spatial variations is essential, not only for quantifying basin evolution and hydrocarbon maturation processes, but also for understanding geothermal conditions in a geological setting. In conjunction with the temperature gradient, thermal conductivity represents the basic input parameter for the determination of the heat-flow density; which, in turn, is applied as a major input parameter in thermal modeling at different scales. Drill-core samples, which are necessary to determine thermal properties by laboratory measurements, are rarely available and often limited to previously explored reservoir formations. Thus, thermal conductivities of Mesozoic rocks in the North German Basin (NGB) are largely unknown. In contrast, geophysical borehole measurements are often available for the entire drilled sequence. Therefore, prediction equations to determine thermal conductivity based on well-log data are desirable. In this study rock thermal conductivity was investigated on different scales by (1) providing thermal-conductivity measurements on Mesozoic rocks, (2) evaluating and improving commonly applied mixing models which were used to estimate matrix and pore-filled rock thermal conductivities, and (3) developing new well-log based equations to predict thermal conductivity in boreholes without core control. Laboratory measurements are performed on sedimentary rock of major geothermal reservoirs in the Northeast German Basin (NEGB) (Aalenian, Rhaethian-Liassic, Stuttgart Fm., and Middle Buntsandstein). Samples are obtained from eight deep geothermal wells that approach depths of up to 2,500 m. Bulk thermal conductivities of Mesozoic sandstones range between 2.1 and 3.9 W/(m∙K), while matrix thermal conductivity ranges between 3.4 and 7.4 W/(m∙K). Local heat flow for the Stralsund location averages 76 mW/m², which is in good agreement to values reported previously for the NEGB. For the first time, in-situ bulk thermal conductivity is indirectly calculated for entire borehole profiles in the NEGB using the determined surface heat flow and measured temperature data. Average bulk thermal conductivity, derived for geological formations within the Mesozoic section, ranges between 1.5 and 3.1 W/(m∙K). The measurement of both dry- and water-saturated thermal conductivities allow further evaluation of different two-component mixing models which are often applied in geothermal calculations (e.g., arithmetic mean, geometric mean, harmonic mean, Hashin-Shtrikman mean, and effective-medium theory mean). It is found that the geometric-mean model shows the best correlation between calculated and measured bulk thermal conductivity. However, by applying new model-dependent correction, equations the quality of fit could be significantly improved and the error diffusion of each model reduced. The ‘corrected’ geometric mean provides the most satisfying results and constitutes a universally applicable model for sedimentary rocks. Furthermore, lithotype-specific and model-independent conversion equations are developed permitting a calculation of water-saturated thermal conductivity from dry-measured thermal conductivity and porosity within an error range of 5 to 10%. The limited availability of core samples and the expensive core-based laboratory measurements make it worthwhile to use petrophysical well logs to determine thermal conductivity for sedimentary rocks. The approach followed in this study is based on the detailed analyses of the relationships between thermal conductivity of rock-forming minerals, which are most abundant in sedimentary rocks, and the properties measured by standard logging tools. By using multivariate statistics separately for clastic, carbonate and evaporite rocks, the findings from these analyses allow the development of prediction equations from large artificial data sets that predict matrix thermal conductivity within an error of 4 to 11%. These equations are validated successfully on a comprehensive subsurface data set from the NGB. In comparison to the application of earlier published approaches formation-dependent developed for certain areas, the new developed equations show a significant error reduction of up to 50%. These results are used to infer rock thermal conductivity for entire borehole profiles. By inversion of corrected in-situ thermal-conductivity profiles, temperature profiles are calculated and compared to measured high-precision temperature logs. The resulting uncertainty in temperature prediction averages < 5%, which reveals the excellent temperature prediction capabilities using the presented approach. In conclusion, data and methods are provided to achieve a much more detailed parameterization of thermal models. / Die thermische Modellierung des geologischen Untergrundes ist ein wichtiges Werkzeug bei der Erkundung und Bewertung tiefliegender Ressourcen sedimentärer Becken (e.g., Kohlenwasserstoffe, Wärme). Die laterale und vertikale Temperaturverteilung im Untergrund wird, neben der Wärmestromdichte und der radiogenen Wärmeproduktion, hauptsächlich durch die Wärmeleitfähigkeit (WLF) der abgelagerten Gesteinsschichten bestimmt. Diese Parameter stellen die wesentlichen Eingangsgrößen für thermische Modelle dar. Die vorliegende Dissertation befasst sich mit der Bestimmung der Gesteins-WLF auf verschiedenen Skalen. Dies umfasst (1) laborative WLF-Messungen an mesozoischen Bohrkernproben, (2) die Evaluierung und Verbesserung der Prognosefähigkeit von Mischgesetzten zur Berechnung von Matrix- und Gesamt-WLF sedimentärer Gesteine, sowie (3) die Entwicklung neuer Prognosegleichungen unter Nutzung bohrlochgeophysikalischer Messungen und multivariater Analysemethoden im NGB. Im Nordostdeutschen Becken (NEGB) wurden für die wichtigsten geothermischen Reservoire des Mesozoikums (Aalen, Rhät-Lias-Komplex, Stuttgart Formation, Mittlerer Buntsandstein) Bohrkerne geothermischer Tiefbohrungen (bis 2.500 m Tiefe) auf Ihre thermischen und petrophysikalischen Eigenschaften hin untersucht. Die WLF mesozoischer Sandsteine schwankt im Mittel zwischen 2,1 und 3,9 W/(m∙K), die WLF der Gesteinsmatrix hingegen im Mittel zwischen 3,4 und 7,4 W/(m∙K). Neu berechnete Werte zur Oberflächenwärmestromdichte (e.g., 76 mW/m², Stralsund) stehen im Einklang mit den Ergebnissen früherer Studien im NEGB. Erstmals im NDB wurde für das mesozoisch/känozoischen Intervall am Standort Stralsund ein in-situ WLF-Profil berechnet. In-situ Formations-WLF, für als potentielle Modelschichten interessante, stratigraphische Intervalle, variieren im Mittel zwischen 1,5 und 3,1 W/(m∙K) und bilden eine gute Grundlage für kleinskalige (lokale) thermische Modelle. Auf Grund der in aller Regel nur eingeschränkt verfügbaren Bohrkernproben sowie des hohen laborativen Aufwandes zur Bestimmung der WLF waren alternative Methoden gesucht. Die Auswertung petrophysikalischer Bohrlochmessungen mittels mathematischer-statistischer Methoden stellt einen lang genutzten und erprobten Ansatz dar, welcher in seiner Anwendbarkeit jedoch auf die aufgeschlossenen Gesteinsbereiche (Genese, Geologie, Stratigraphie, etc.) beschränkt ist. Daher wurde ein leicht modifizierter Ansatz entwickelt. Die thermophysikalischen Eigenschaften der 15 wichtigsten gesteinsbildenden Minerale (in Sedimentgesteinen) wurden statistisch analysiert und aus variablen Mischungen dieser Basisminerale ein umfangreicher, synthetischer Datensatz generiert. Dieser wurde mittels multivariater Statistik bearbeitet, in dessen Ergebnis Regressionsgleichungen zur Prognose der Matrix-WLF für drei Gesteinsgruppen (klastisch, karbonatisch, evaporitisch) abgeleitet wurden. In einem zweiten Schritt wurden für ein Echtdatenset (laborativ gemessene WLF und Standardbohrlochmessungen) empirische Prognosegleichungen für die Berechnung der Gesamt-WLF entwickelt. Die berechneten WLF zeigen im Vergleich zu gemessenen WLF Fehler zwischen 5% und 11%. Die Anwendung neu entwickelter, sowie in der Literatur publizierter Verfahren auf den NGB-Datensatz zeigt, dass mit den neu aufgestellten Gleichungen stets der geringste Prognosefehler erreicht wird. Die Inversion neu berechneter WLF-Profile erlaubt die Ableitung synthetischer Temperaturprofile, deren Vergleich zu gemessenen Gesteinstemperaturen in einen mittleren Fehler von < 5% resultiert. Im Rahmen geothermischer Berechnungen werden zur Umrechnung zwischen Matrix- und Gesamt-WLF häufig Zwei-Komponenten-Mischmodelle genutzt (Arithmetisches Mittel, Harmonische Mittel, Geometrisches Mittel, Hashin-Shtrikman Mittel, Effektives-Medium Mittel). Ein umfangreicher Datensatz aus trocken- und gesättigt-gemessenen WLF und Porosität erlaubt die Evaluierung dieser Modelle hinsichtlich Ihrer Prognosefähigkeit. Diese variiert für die untersuchten Modelle stark (Fehler: 5 – 53%), wobei das geometrische Mittel die größte, quantitativ aber weiterhin unbefriedigende Übereinstimmungen zeigt. Die Entwicklung und Anwendung mischmodelspezifischer Korrekturgleichungen führt zu deutlich reduzierten Fehlern. Das korrigierte geometrische Mittel zeigt dabei, bei deutlich reduzierter Fehlerstreubreite, erneut die größte Übereinstimmung zwischen berechneten und gemessenen Werten und scheint ein universell anwendbares Mischmodel für sedimentäre Gesteine zu sein. Die Entwicklung modelunabhängiger, gesteinstypbezogener Konvertierungsgleichungen ermöglicht die Abschätzung der wassergesättigten Gesamt-WLF aus trocken-gemessener WLF und Porosität mit einem mittleren Fehler < 9%. Die präsentierten Daten und die neu entwickelten Methoden erlauben künftig eine detailliertere und präzisere Parametrisierung thermischer Modelle sedimentärer Becken.

A collapsed North Korea would pose a momentous test to the future of the region. The five regional powers—South Korea, China, Japan, Russia, and the United States—are ill-prepared for such an event, partly because of the act of planning for it would upset North Korea. However, the potential challenges of a collapse are too great to ignore. This study presents an historical and political analysis of the increasing risk that North Korea may collapse. A comparison with earlier cases suggests that triggers and indicators of collapse can be identified, including increasing cross-border information flows, defections, and the possible death or incapacitation of North Korea’s leader. Further, the large and growing economic disparity between North Korea and its neighbors, South Korea and China, points to likely consequences of collapse, including possible mass migration. The study then examines the roles of South Korea, China, the U.S., Japan, and Russia in the future of the Korean peninsula; it concludes with a further consideration of the paradox of collapse planning, but argues that it would be better to run the risks entailed in the exercise than to be caught flatfooted when a collapse occurs. The analysis is based on interviews, surveys, and documents in English and Korean. / text

The state of stress in forearc regions depends on the balance of two competing factors: the plate coupling force that generates margin-normal compression, and the gravitational force, that generates margin-normal tension. Widespread reversal of the focal mechanisms of small earthquakes after the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake indicate a reversal in the dominant state of stress of the forearc, from compressive before the earthquake to tensional afterwards. This implies that the plate coupling force dominated before the earthquake, and that the coseismic weakening of the fault lowered the amount of stress exerted on the forearc, such that the gravitational force became dominant in the post-seismic period. This change requires that the average stress drop along the fault represents a significant portion of the fault strength. Two cases are possible: (1) The fault was strong and the stress drop was large or nearly-complete (e.g. from 50 MPa to 10 MPa), or (2) that the fault was weak and the stress drop was small (e.g. from 15 MPa to 10 MPa). The first option appears to be consistent with the dramatic weakening associated with high-rate rock friction experiments, while the second option is consistent with seismological observations that large earthquakes are characterized by low average stress drops. In this work, we demonstrate that the second option is correct. A very weak fault, represented by an apparent coefficient of friction of 0.032, is sufficient to put the Japan Trench forearc into margin-normal compression. Lowering this value by ~0.01 causes the reversal of the state of stress as observed after the earthquake. A slightly stronger fault, with a strength of 0.045, does not agree well with the observed spatial extent of normal faulting for the same coseismic reduction in strength. We also calculate distributions of stress change on the fault and average stress drop values for the Tohoku-oki earthquake, as predicted from 20 published rupture models which were constrained by seismic, tsunami, and geodetic data. Our results reconcile seismic observations that average stress drops for large megathrust events are low with laboratory work on high-rate weakening that predicts very high or complete stress drop. We find that, in all rupture models, regions of high stress drop (20 – 55 MPa) are probably indicative of dynamic weakening during seismic slip, but that the heterogeneous nature of fault slip does not allow these regions to become widespread. Also, coseismic stress increase on the fault occurs in many parts of the fault, including parts of the area that experienced high slip (> 30 m). These two factors ensure that the average stress drop remains low (< 5 MPa). The low average stress drop during the Tohoku earthquake, consistent with values reported for other large earthquakes, makes it unambiguous that the Japan Trench megathrust is very weak. / Graduate

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