L’objet de cette recherche est d’identifier et analyser les facteurs déterminants de l’évolution du capital-investissement dans l’Europe de l’Est. De plus, notre travail compare les déterminants de LBO, respectivement de l’activité de VC dans les pays d’Europe de l’Est. Le modèle empirique comprend de nombreux déterminants déjà testés dans des études précédentes ainsi que de nouvelles variables telles que la productivité et l’indice de corruption, que nous considérons comme des facteurs importants pour expliquer l’évolution des investissements en capital-investissement en Europe de l’Est. Nos résultats confirment les hypothèses existantes concernant l’importance de certains déterminants sur l’évolution des investissements en capital-investissement en Europe de l’Est. Cependant, dans le contexte de la dernière crise, de nouveaux facteurs sont apparus comme importants pour le marché du capital investissement en Europe, tels que la productivité ou la corruption. La dernière partie de cette recherche montrent que les sociétés de capital-investissement en Europe de l’Est préfèrent les sorties à travers des fusions et acquisitions, suivies des introductions en bourse. De plus, nous validons une relation d'équilibre à long terme entre les investissements en capital-investissement, les introductions en bourse et les fusions et acquisitions. Le test de causalité de Granger montre l'existence d'une causalité unidirectionnelle du nombre de fusions et acquisitions par rapport au volume des investissements en capital-investissement en Europe de l'Est. / The purpose of this research is to identify and analyze the determinants of the evolution of private equity in Eastern Europe. Additionally, this paper compares the determinants of leveraged buyout activity, respectively venture capital activity in Eastern European countries. The empirical model of the first two sections includes many of the determinants already tested in previous studies and also new variables such as productivity and corruption index which we consider important factors in explaining the evolution of private equity investments in Europe. Our results confirm existing hypotheses regarding the importance of some determinants on the evolution of private equity investments in Europe. However, in the context of the last crisis new factors emerged as important for the private equity market in Europe such as productivity or corruption. The last section of this work tests the existence of a causal link between the evolution of private equity and the number of divestments of private equity funds in Eastern Europe during the financial crisis. Our results show that Eastern European private equity firms prefer M&A exits followed by IPOs. Furthermore, we validate a long-term equilibrium relationship between private equity investments, IPO and M&A. The Granger causality test shows the existence of a unidirectional causality of the number of M&A to the volume of private equity investments in Eastern Europe.

This thesis is focused on the topic of job opportunities for graduates after the graduation on the labor market in the Czech Republic and possible preparation for this issue during the studies too. The object of this work is the participation of students on their career paths in the future and the competitiveness of their human capital. The position of graduates in the history of the Czech Republic is various. This thesis describes the university degree during the history and present of the Czech Republic. We're talking about the time period of socialism, then the Velvet Revolution and the period of tertiary education in a democratic society. These periods are described using the academic sources, theories and opinions. The thesis focuses on the time horizon of ten years from 2006 to 2015 in the research study. By the research author examines the various strategies and attitudes of students confronted with this issue. Respondents of the target group of graduates are interviewed for their actions during the tertiary education. The world is changing. There is technological progress, globalization and the countries are developing in all ways of socio-economic units. The individual actors of the educational system in tertiary education are adapting and developing similarly. They are adapting to the...

Les choses avancent de plus en plus rapidement autour de nous. Les systèmes évoluent et nous permettent même dans certains domaines de prédire l’avenir, ce que plusieurs scientifiques s’avèrent à tenter dans le monde économique. Différents modèles sont pensés de façon à prévoir les variations à venir dans l’économie et ainsi pouvoir s’y préparer, mais ces modèles prévus pour lire l’avenir sont-ils vraiment efficaces? Les points de vue varient selon l’auteur. Alors que certains pensent qu’il est impossible que les prédictions soient précises, d’autres demeurent plus optimistes et croient en la capacité des modèles de prédictions de s’adapter. Afin de tester le tout nous avons sélectionner un ensemble de 44 pays à travers le monde et tester l’efficacité des prédictions à travers les années sur 4 facteurs macroéconomiques. Les facteurs choisis furent les variations du taux d’intérêt, le taux de chômage, la balance économique et les taux d’intérêt à court terme. Nous avons basé nos tests sur deux hypothèses, soit une valeur de 1 pour le coefficient de notre variable dans notre régression linéaire ainsi qu’une valeur de zéro pour le coefficient de la constante. Une fois les tests effectués nous nous apercevons que pour aucun de nos facteurs l’ensemble d’observations présentées ne permettait de ne pas rejeter l’une ou l’autre de nos hypothèses démontrant une inefficacité du marché virtuel dans notre étude. En testant uniquement pour des données plus récentes pour le taux de chômage nous avons également pu remarquer que le tout améliorait l’efficacité des prédictions sans pour autant permettre de répondre aux hypothèses. / Things are moving faster and faster around us. Systems evolve and even allow us in some areas to predict the future, which many scientists are trying to do in the economic world. Different models are designed to predict future variations in the economy and thus be able to prepare for them, but are these models designed to read the future really efficient? Views vary by author. While some believe it is impossible for predictions to be accurate, others remain more optimistic and believe in the ability of prediction models to adapt. In order to test everything, we selected a set of 44 countries around the world and tested the effectiveness of the predictions over the years on 4 macroeconomic factors. The factors chosen were changes in the interest rate, the unemployment rate, the economic balance and short-term interest rates. We based our tests on two assumptions, namely a value of 1 for the coefficient of our variable in our linear regression as well as a value of zero for the coefficient of the constant. Once the tests have been carried out, we realize that for none of our factors the set of observations presented did not allow us to reject one or the other of our hypotheses demonstrating an inefficiency of the virtual market in our study. By testing only for more recent data for the unemployment rate, we also noticed that the whole change improved the effectiveness of the predictions without making it possible to meet the hypotheses.

近年來由於亞洲金融風暴的肆虐，產生經濟不景氣，使得失業的問題逐漸受到社會所關注，本論文企圖以三個時間序列方法：1.單變量ARIMA模型；2.轉換函數(TF)模型；3.向量自迴歸(VAR)模型來建立台灣地區的失業率時間序列預測模型。資料則是利用台灣地區民國75年1月至民國87年12月的失業率月資料作實證預測分析，為了知道資料是否來自時間趨勢模型，測試是否經過差分消掉一部份的記憶會發生預測的誤差，所以先以多步(multi-step)預測和一步(one-step)預測的方法計算出民國88年1月至88年12月預測值，而預測評估準則則採用(1)MAPE、RMSPE、MPE及泰爾不等係數(THEIL)；(2)變化方向誤差與趨勢變化誤差兩大方向來做預測比較。最後將算出的12期預測值與行政院主計處整體統計資料庫中所得到的失業率實際值利用預測評估準則做比較，結果發現一步預測法較多步預測法準確；而向量自迴歸模型(VAR)在大部份的預測期數上有較小的MAPE、RMSPE、MPE及THEIL值，因為此VAR模型考慮了在變數之間的共整合現象，有助於模型的預測，所以有較好預測的能力；反而是較複雜的ARIMA模型及轉換模型預測能力稍差一點。 / In this thesis, we plan to construct three time series models to forecast the Taiwan unemployment Rate. These time series models are ARIMA model、transfer function (TF) model and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The data set consists of monthly observations for the period 75:1-87:12 for unemployment rate. We want to know if the data came from time trend model. First, we use multi-step forecasting and one-step forecasting to calculate 12 forecasted values from 88:01-88:12. Then We compare the prediction performance of these two methods by using：(1) MAPE、RMSPE、MPE and Theil’s Inequality Coefficient (THEIL)；(2) Direction of Change Error and trend Change Error etc. It is found that one-step forecasting is more correct than multi-step forecasting and the forecasting performance of VAR model is improved by explicitly taking account of cointegration between the variables in the model，so VAR model has lower MAPE、RMSPE、MPE and THEIL for most horizons. However，the more parsimonious ARIMA and transfer function models have higher MAPE、RMSPE、MPE for most horizons.

不景氣的年代，民間企業裁員、減薪或強迫員工休無薪假的事件層出不窮，襯托出公職相對起薪高、福利制度健全，任職免職程序有政府法令保障。在公職逐漸被當前的社會氛圍視為是兼具地位及幸福的工作時，愈來愈多的民眾競相投入公務人員的考試，而競相爭捧鐵飯碗的現象，也成為近期媒體報導的新聞焦點。 惟前述種種的論述都仍停留在主觀的聯想及推論上，國內鮮少針對經濟變數與公務人員考試錄取率間之關係，建立統計實證模型進行客觀量化分析。基於這樣的時空背景及社會氛圍，本研究遂以客觀的高普考錄取率表示公務人員考試競爭程度，觀察經濟環境變數對其造成的影響，是否誠如媒體所言，當景氣愈差時，公職考試就愈熱門的現象。 經過實證模型分析後，發現影響經濟變數對高考錄取率較普考錄取率變動數的影響較為顯著，包括：當期或前期的高考薪資占民間薪資比、當期或前期的失業率、前期臺股指數變動數、當期或前期臺股指數標準離差率以及時間趨勢等解釋變數，並且各自存在不同程度的影響及合理的正負關係。而普考錄取率變動數部分，僅受當期普考薪資占民間薪資比、前期失業率及時間趨勢等變數所影響。 本文最後，提出針對可能影響民眾報考公務人員的重要因素，提出相應政策建議，以期抒緩公職考試過熱的現象並精進政府政策。 / Recession-era, layoffs, pay cuting, and forcing employees to take unpaid leave are more and more in private sector, highlight the work of public sector is high starting salary, benefits sound system, and having protection by law in appointment and dismissal. More people want to participate in civil service examination, then civil service examination craze has become the focus of recent news. Provided the foregoing various opinions are still subjective conjecture, almost no study about relationship between economic variables and the qualification rates of civil service examination in domestic studies. In this context, this study used a senior and junior civil service examination qualification rates to represent the competitive of civil service examination, and to observe the effects of economic variables on the qualification rates of civil service examination, if consistent with the media reports, the worse economy is, the less qualification rates of civil service examination will be. After empirical model analysis, we found that the effects of economic variables on the qualification rates of senior civil service examination are more significant than the changes of the qualification rates of junior civil service examination. Finally, make recommendations to relief civil service examination craze.

The paper examines the status of selected disadvantaged groups in the Czech labour market in 2005-2012. The main goal of this paper is to test the hypothesis that these disadvantaged groups respond to changes in Czech GDP more sensitive than the general unemployment rate. This thesis describes the development of general unemployment rate and selected disadvantaged groups in studied period. The main hypothesis is verified using regression analysis performed on the time series. Empirical investigation, realized in this work, confirm this hypothesis in a group of graduates and persons at age 15-24. For persons with disabilities and persons at age 50-74 failed to confirm the hypothesis.

This thesis aimed to find the correlation between happiness and macroeconomic variables using multiple linear regression analysis. The macroeconomic variables considered were GPD per capita, the Gini coefficient, unemployment rate, tax revenue of GDP, government spending on education and inflation. The data for self-reported happiness were collected from a global happiness survey. GDP per capita, the Gini coefficient and government expenditure on education were found to be positively correlated with happiness. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate and tax revenue of GDP showed a negative correlation. Inflation were found to not have a statistically significant relationship with happiness. Furthermore, the Gini coefficient was investigated more closely since the positive correlation was partially contradictory to previous research within the field. A simple linear regression analysis was therefore performed, which showed a negative relationship between happiness and the Gini coefficient. This could indicate that important regressors were not included in the main model. In conclusion, this thesis showed that the investigated macroeconomic variables have a statistically significant impact on the happiness of individuals. / I detta kandidatexamensarbete undersöks korrelationen mellan lycka och makroekonomiska variabler med hjälp av multipel linjär regression. De makroekonomiska variablerna som studerades är BNP per capita, Ginikoefficienten, arbetslöshet, skattekvot av BNP, offentliga utgifter för utbildning och inflation. Data för självuppskattad lycka hämtades från en global undersökning. BNP per capita, Ginikoefficienten och offentliga utgifter för utbildning visade sig ha en positiv korrelation med lycka, medans arbetslöshet och skattekvoten av BNP hade en negativ korrelation. Inflation visade sig ej ha en statistiskt signifikant korrelation med lycka. Vidare undersöktes Ginikoefficienten mer djupgående då den positiva korrelationen delvis motsätter sig tidigare forskning inom ämnet. Därav genomfördes en simpel linjär regressionsanalys, som nu visade på ett negativt samband mellan lycka och Ginikoefficienten. Detta kan vara ett tecken på att viktiga variabler inte har inkluderats i huvudmodellen. Sammantaget visar dessa resultat att de undersökta makroekonomiska variablerna har en statistiskt signifikant inverkan på individers lycka.