市場比較法估價過程需要經比較、分析及調整三階段，而估價師於個別估價應用中因缺乏標準化依據，造成估價過程常被質疑過於主觀且偏重經驗法則，導致估價結果產生因人而異現象。基於此本研究乃建立大量估價模型，運用估價師進行市場比較法行為邏輯，在選取比較案例階段採用明科斯基距離概念，並結合特徵價格理論，建立大量樣本的客觀標準化估價模型。藉由此模型分析，估價師不需要主觀預測，可改善過去估價結果不一致情形，並達到大量估價目的。 透過隨機抽樣的重覆實驗，實證結果發現，以模型的平均百分比預測誤差與命中率比較，整體而言未劃分次市場估價模型皆較劃分次市場準確，且其穩定度亦較高，而劃分次市場較不準確的原因，在於舊市區的表現不穩定，與市郊區的估值表現較差所致。經本研究結果，不論劃分次市場與否，標準化大量估價模型大致上均達到研究預設水準，然劃分次市場模型雖有時較準確但未優於未分區模型甚多，顯示適當劃分次市場可提高準確度，但資料太少時，劃分次市場可能產生統計偏誤問題。 / The process of the market comparative approach includes three stages：comparing ,analyzing and adjusting. Real estate appraisers lack the standardized basis in the individual appraisal application, so they are often challenged by subjectivity and stressing experience, which leads to the phenomenon that appraisal results are always different from person to person. Based on this, our research establishes the automated valuation methods. By applying the appraisers’ behavior in market comparative approach, we use minkowski metric in selecting comparative subject, and associate with hedonic price theory to establish objective standardized real estate appraisal model. By using this model, the appraisers can avoid subjective forecasting, reduce inconsistency, and therefore achieve the goal of mass appraisal. Through the repetition experiment of random sampling, we compare MAPE and Hit-rate between models. The result shows that non-delimited markets are more accurate and stable than delimited markets. The reason for this is the instability caused by older district of the city and bad performance in the suburban area. After these findings, no matter delimited market or not, the standardized mass appraisal model achieved the research standard we had set in advance. Sometimes the model of delimited market is more accurate, though not by a significant amount, it shows that higher accuracy can be expected through adequate market segmentation, but will lead to bias when lack of datum.

不動產估價一般需採比較法、收益法及成本法等三種方法查估。不動產估價最終估值決定須進行協調(reconciliation)，協調的目的係為完成關聯(correlation)之步驟，就各種方法資料之質量及優缺點進行分析。為使不動產估價對於比較法三件買賣實例，及三種方法估值採賦予權重之決定方式提供量化解釋，本文分別建立比較法內部及三種方法外部權重模型。內部權重部分，買賣實例（市場）比較法一般需蒐集數個比較標的，經調整後之試算價格決定比較價格。國外以數學計算式計算實例權重雖已相當普遍，但目前尚無應用特徵效用模式，解讀實例權重形成與比較標的內部條件之關聯。本文以2007年及2008年地價基準地6,435筆買賣實例建構特徵權重模型，發現比較法買賣實例權重受價格型態、交易日期接近性、是否屬近鄰地區、實例差異百分率絕對值加總、實例比較項目修正數、其他兩個實例相對值等自變數影響顯著。 欲探討成本法估值是否與成交價存在差異，以作為外部權重設定之基礎，本文以北部地區986筆交易案例，由估價人員逐筆以成本法估計成本價格，俾與成交價格比較。發現成本價格有高估之系統性偏誤現象，分量迴歸(quantile regression)分析實證認為成本法並未因屋齡較新之建物有較高精度。另發現房地交易價格愈高、建物單價愈高、總樓層數愈高、移轉樓層愈低、建物面積愈小、建築工期愈長及利潤率愈小者；估值差異愈小。 外部權重分為三部分，首先將估價過程中之諸項因子，以分析階層程序法(AHP)專家問卷，彙整各種方法權重因子；其次，基於最適加權平均模式在於使三種方法估值總誤差最小之觀點，經由數學計算方程式建構2,150筆基準地三種方法標準差及相關係數模型以計算權重。第三、為了瞭解比較估值、收益估值與土地開發分析估值之關聯，本文將2,150筆三種估價方式權重建立聯立模型，以三階段最小平方法(3SLS)進行估計。實證模型系統加權解釋力甚高，且三種方式權重之自變數多符合預期並顯著，顯見三種方式之關聯性。 最後，不動產估價仍需考慮一般因素，如金融海嘯對全球金融及房地產市場，其影響力無遠弗屆，最終估值之決定即需考慮市場景氣對最終估值之影響。為探討對於(不)景氣時是否(低)高估？影響(低)高估與否之影響因素為何？本文以2002年至2004年國內某金融機構對房屋貸款20,532件之估值，以二項式邏輯特(Binary Logit)模型分析。實證結果發現於不景氣時期抵押貸款低估機率提高，景氣時期則無高估現象。綜上，本文以權重模式、估值差異及市場景氣影響探討不動產估價最終估值之形成，於權重模型建構及預測上，非如以往文獻僅對估值預測，而係就權重預測。於加權平均應用上，外生變數之迴歸係數可作為權重設定之參考。本文直接探討最終估值形成之權重核心，冀使估價之客觀性及科學化程度提高。 / Real estate appraisal comprises the sales comparison, income, and cost approaches to value in general. The purpose of reconciliation is to complete the procedure of correlation and analyze the qualitative and quantitative strengths and weaknesses of different approach data. In order to assist quantifiable explanation when weighted average for three comparables in the Sales comparison approach and indicated values from three approaches are applied, this paper constructs internal and external weight models respectively. For internal weight model, this paper examines the correlation between weight and internal attributes of 6,345 sales comparables from land value benchmark in 2007 and 2008 adopting the hedonic price model. The outcome shows the price type, the proximity of transaction date, inside the neighborhood area or not, total gross adjustment as %, numbers of adjustments and the attributes of other two comparables considered in one appraisal are significant on the weight of comparables. To explore whether the cost approach causes bias or not, and make it reference for establishment of external weight model, this paper compares the cost value, appraised by valuers applying the cost approach individually, from a sample of 986 transactions of properties sold in 2007 and 2008 in northern Taiwan, to sale price and finds the cost value is higher than sale price on average. It proves that the reliability of the cost approach is comparatively questionable due to its systematic bias of overestimation. With quantile regression, the outcome shows that the precision of cost value won’t increase for newer buildings. In addition, this paper finds the more the total property sales amount, the higher the unit construction fee, the higher building, the lower story, the smaller area, the longer construction years of properties, and the smaller profit rate; the smaller the bias. There are three parts for external weights. First, AHP expert questionare is adopted to combine weight factor from each approach. Secondly, based on the logic that the best way to assign weights on three appraisal approaches is to get the minimum total error, this paper calculates the standard error and correlation indicators from three approaches using 2,150 land value benchmarks. Thirdly, in order to realize the weights correlation among the sales comparison value, income capitalization value and land development analysis value, this paper builds a model based on the three-stage least squares method simultaneous equation (3SLS). The empirical result shows system weighted R2 is high and most attributes on the weights of three indication of value are significant and are consistent with expected sign, which means the model fit is good and how the weights of three methods correlate. Finally, general factor also needs to be considered in real estate appraisal. For instance, financial tsunami exerts powerful influence on financial and real estate market globally, which makes it necessary to consider real estate cylce influence when seeking the final value. In order to discuss whether the appraisal value of mortgage is smaller (greater) or not when the market is bearish (bullish) and the corresponding factors, this paper collects 20,532 mortgage appraisal value from one bank from 2002 to 2004. With Binary Logit model, this paper finds the probability of lower appraisal is greater in bear market. The outcome confirms two hypotheses of this paper. However, overestimation is not confirmed in bull market. To sum up, this thesis researches the formation of final value of real estate appraisal by discussing weight model, appraisal bias and influence of real estate cycle. For weight model construction and forecasting, this dissertation forecasts weight directly, instead of value like most literature focus. The regression coefficients estimated from factors during the procedure of each approach could serve for reference if weighted average is applied reconciling the value conclusion by valuers. By delving into the core issue of value formation, it hopes to elevate the degree the objectivity and science of real estate appraisal.

我國在金融監督管理委員會2009年5月14日宣告全面採用國際會計準則後，所有公開發行公司即受到全面性的衝擊;而在眾多的IFRS中，IAS 40投資性不動產會計準則，是目前國內會計準則所沒有的規定，且此號公報最特別的規定，是允許投資性不動產的續後評價，企業可以擁有選用公允價值法與歷史成本法的彈性，這樣的特殊規定觸發筆者想瞭解，企業未來適用此號公報，其續後評價方法之選擇及影響選擇原因的動機。 相對於歐美，由於我國缺乏具有長期收益性與安全性的資金投資管道，造成我國保險業長期偏好將可運用資金投資於實體不動產，故IAS 40對我國保險業影響重大，因此筆者以我國保險業為研究對象，以問卷、個案分析及訪談來探討保險業者對未來適用IAS 40之看法與期待。 經過研究分析，本研究發現60.61%的保險業在未來實施IAS 40後會繼續延用歷史成本模式，對影響選擇的因素方面，受訪者認為「對盈餘數字高低的影響」、「所得稅金額大小的考慮」、「對不同年度的損益造成波動的關係」等三項因素最為重要，另外，受訪者最認同新會計準則方法規定允許公司選用歷史成本法或公允價值法「會增加公司間財務資訊比較的複雜性」，且60.6%受訪公司傾向不同意提前適用此號公報。 / After the Financial Supervisory Commission Executive Yuan, R .O.C. declaring on May 14, 2009 that adopt International Accounting Standard in an all-round way in our country, all the public company were totally impacted promptly; Among the IFRSs, IAS 40 investment property is not exist at our present domestic accounting regulations and the most special of this regulation is allowing the enterprises can have elasticity of selecting the cost method or fair value method for measurement after recognition. The special treatments induce me to understand the drivers of the reason in its choice. As to America and Europe, because our country lacks have long-term rentability and security fund investment channel, cause the insurance of our country prefer to invest in real estate for a long time, so the implemental of IAS 40 will influence our insurance industry very much, so the study use questionnaires, case analysis and interview to researching the determinants of insurance industry choice to use the cost or fair value model to account for their real estate. Researched and analyzed, originally discover that 60.61% of the insurances will continue to use the cost method after implementing IAS 40 in the future, to influencing the factor chosen, interviewees think ”the amount of earnings”, “the tax amount” and “the volatility of income in different years” three factors are most important. In addition, interviewees admit that IAS 40 permits enterprises to choose cost method or fair value method will increase the complexity of comparisons among the companies’ report, and 60.6% interviewed disagree earlier application with this criterion.

不動產由於具有異質性、不可移動性與昂貴性等特性，相較於其他資產而言，最獨特的風險為「流動性風險」(liquidity risk)，也因此其銷售期間比其他標的較長，議價空間也較大。以往探討不動產流動性的研究大都以在市場上的銷售期間(time on the market, TOM)為主，然本研究認為銷售期間和賣方的表價（listing price）與買方心中的價格（offer price）密切相關，買方決策的過程勢必受到賣方表價與本身心中價格之影響，進而決定該不動產在市場之流動性。故本研究則嘗試以賣方表價與最後成交價(transaction price)間的議價空間，探討不動產市場之流動性。議價空間愈大，表示不動產標的在當時市場之流動性愈低，致使賣方愈能接受低於表價的買方出價及成交價。 本研究透過搜尋理論建立住宅不動產議價空間模型，並以實際市場交易資料進行實證分析，探討房屋本身的屬性、總體市場因素、賣方持有的成本、區位因素與賣方定價因素等，對於買賣雙方議價空間之影響，藉以觀察理論與實證是否相符。其中以房屋總坪數與屋齡代表房屋屬性，以房租成長率與經濟成長率代表市場情況，並以利率代表賣方持有成本。實證結果顯示，屋齡太久或賣方定價過高的不動產，其議價空間愈大，流動性愈差；房租成長率和經濟成長率皆與議價空間呈負相關，表市場景氣愈好，議價空間愈小，賣方在議價過程中較能堅守其表價；又利率與議價空間呈正相關，表賣方持有不動產的成本越高，越能接受較大的議價空間；而總坪數愈大及區位較佳之不動產，其議價空間越小，可能受豪宅市場效應以及區域抗跌性有關。此實證結果與過去利用銷售期間衡量不動產市場流動性的搜尋理論相符，也驗證議價空間實可為衡量不動產市場流動性的新指標，並可降低利用銷售期間分析的研究困境。本研究成果不僅可供不動產賣方定價策略、買方議價時機之參考，亦希望透過本研究對議價空間與不動產市場流動性之研究，期望政府儘速建立與公開不動產交易平台，俾利增進不動產市場之流動性，更能牽動不動產市場與整體經濟市場之成長。 / The study suggests that not only time on market (TOM) but also price concession between the listing and contract prices could measure housing market liquidity. Departed from past studies, this paper develops theory and constructs a model named Residential Housing Price Concession Model to examine whether key factors influenced housing market liquidity significantly from past studies would have the same effect on price concession. The model includes the listing price of house, the macroeconomic data, the cost of the search and other housing characters in empirical model. Results show that listing price, cost of search and age of house have the predicted positive coefficients, and macroeconomic data , squares of house and location factor are found to be negatively related to the price concession. The corresponding conclusion with time on market (TOM) examined by past studies explains that the price concession also could measure housing market liquidity.

投資決策時，除了關注資產的報酬外，更不可忽略風險。而風險的衡量上，一般常用風險值來衡量投資所面臨的風險，這是由於風險值具有動態管理、量化風險等優點。而國內研究對於不動產風險值的文獻上多以住宅市場為主，對於商用不動產較無著墨，是故本研究欲從不同風險值模型探討投資商用不動產的風險值，並分為直接投資(北市商用不動產)與間接投資(REITs)商用不動產兩個不同次市場。實證結果發現直接投資商用不動產風險值高於間接投資商用不動產。其次，本研究試圖比較靜態與動態風險值模型在估計不動產風險值的行為表現，經回溯測試(Back Testing)檢驗後發現，發現兩個模型衡量不動產風險值時，表現差異性不大。最後，本研究並以夏普績效(Sharp Ratio)來衡量直接投資與間接投資商用不動產的投資績效，研究期間為2007年6月至2009年3月。實證結果發現，直接投資商用不動產在景氣衰退與股市劇跌時具有抗跌性；而間接投資商用不動產則與股市發生同時下跌的現象，此現象可能是我國REITs具有代理問題(Agency Problem)與系統風險(Systematic Risk)等問題所致。因此，本研究建議投資者投資REITs時，應同時考量REITs存在上述的風險與問題，以避免投資上的損失。 / When making investment strategies, aside from considering the return of investment, one cannot ignore the risk factors. In measuring risk, we usually use VaR (Value at Risk) to calculate the risks of investment because, among other reasons, VaR has dynamic and quantifiable advantages. Most of the studies regarding real estate investment risk in Taiwan focus on residential markets; thus, this paper investigates commercial real estate markets using different VaR models to determine the degree of risk, distinguishing further between direct investment markets and indirect investment markets like REITs (Real Estate Investment Trust). The result of this study reveals that direct real estate investment involves higher risks than indirect real estate investment. Furthermore, there was hardly any difference in investment risk when using either static or dynamic VaR models in the computations after using Back Testing. Finally, this study employs Sharp Ratio to calculate commercial real estate investment performance covering the period between June 2007 and March 2009. Direct real estate investment shows firmness during economic downturns or stock market crashes unlike indirect real estate investment like REITs which follows stock market trends. This phenomenon may be due to Agency Problem and Systematic Risk in Taiwan’s REITs market. Therefore this study suggests that when investing in REITs one has to take into account the risks and problems in order to avoid unnecessary investment losses.

資產報酬的波動程度隱含風險與不確定性，不同的投資者存在不同之風險偏好與風險承受能力，因此瞭解報酬波動之特性有其必要性；又鑑於過去不動產市場對於商用與住宅不動產兩次市場之相關研究較欠缺。因此本研究擬分別探討商用與住宅不動產市場報酬波動特性與差異，並檢視其風險與報酬間之關係。此外，總體經濟環境之變動會影響不動產市場供需關係，進而影響其價格與報酬之波動，因此本研究最後再進一步討論影響其市場報酬之總體經濟因素。 為捕捉不動產市場報酬之波動特性，本研究擬透過GARCH模型分別檢驗商用與住宅不動產市場報酬波動特性與差異；進而應用GARCH-M模型，探討商用與住宅不動產市場報酬與風險之關係；最後透過落遲分配模型實證比較分析顯著影響商用與住宅不動產市場報酬之總體經濟因素。樣本取自台北地區，資料期間為1997年2月至2009年3月之月資料。 實證結果顯示，商用不動產市場中投資人較容易透過自身過去的報酬波動推測未來的波動，反觀住宅不動產市場部分，投資人則傾向注意整體市場消息的散佈，因為其較容易受到外在因素影響而導致報酬波動；由GARCH-M模型實證結果顯示，住宅與商用不動產市場報酬與風險間均呈現顯著正相關，顯示其市場波動風險增加時期，會提供更高之報酬以均衡投資者所面對之較高市場波動風險；由落遲分配模型實證結果顯示，商用與住宅不動產市場報酬確實和總經變數之間有著程度不同的關聯性，所有當期總經變數與不動產報酬間均不存在顯著影響關係，顯示各總經變數對不動產報酬的影響存在時間落差。此外，總經變數對商用報酬的影響程度相對大於對住宅報酬的影響，且總體經濟環境變動對於商用不動產市場報酬之衝擊相對較為迅速。 / This research plans to study the relative volatility characteristic of commercial and residential property returns. In addition, the changing real estate environment can be linked to the macro economy, so we further discusses the relationship between property returns and the macro economy. In order to catch the volatility characteristic of real estate returns, we use GARCH model to examine the volatile behavior of real estate returns of commercial and residential property in the Taipei area during the period of February 1997 to March 2009, and because risk is time-varying in the market, we continue to employ GARCH-M model to observe whether can explain the change in expected returns of commercial and residential property. Furthermore, we use distributed-lag model to explore the relationship between macroeconomic factors and real estate returns. The major findings of this article can be summarized as follows. First, it is easier for investors to infer the future fluctuation through oneself returns in the past in the commercial real estate market, but part on the residential real estate market, the volatility of residential property returns is influenced by external factor more easily. Second, our empirical applications in both commercial and residential real estate markets show that the risk is positively correlated with both property returns and high risk can bring high return. Third, there are different relations of intensity between real estate returns and macroeconomic factors and the impact of macroeconomic factors on real estate returns exist time-lag. In addition, macroeconomic factors’ impact on commercial returns is relatively great, and the environmental change takes place to the impact of the commercial property returns comparatively fast.

隨著網路的崛起，傳統實體通路的存在價值與市場地位也飽受威脅，在市場上的實際演變，書店、銀行、證券、旅遊、機票等中介者的角色，明顯的已可被電子商務網站所取代，因此在國外已經有很多針對網路對實體通路產生「去中介化」之研究，在國內雖然也有類似的現象產生，但迄今還沒有類似的研究，所以本研究有開啟此議題研究先河之意義。 與其他遭到「去中介化」產業或服務比較，不動產仲介業更倚賴「人」之中介角色，但其銷售之產品又具有高度不易「去中介化」的特性：異質性、高總價、少交易經驗等，所以其面臨「去中介化」之威脅，的關鍵因素是什麼，其受到「去中介化」衝擊之程度到底多大，都是本研究想要探討之課題。 根據問卷調查，本研究發現交易成本是不動產仲介業面臨「去中介化」的關鍵原因，不過在目前之環境下，不動產仲介業還是不可能完全被不動產自售網站所取代，而不動產自售網站如果想要發揮自售之功效，還需多強化網頁內容呈現、提升網站知名度以及增加配套服務。 / Following the emerging of internet, traditional retail channels of books, banks, stocks, tourism and ticketing have faced the challenges from many internet-based businesses (electronic commerce) which eliminating intermediary between buyers and sellers make products or services to sell cheaper and faster. And there are many researches on such kind of disintermediation effects in foreign society. But till now there is not any kind of disintermediation study in Taiwan. This study is a beginning research of disintermediation in Taiwan. Though the real estate brokerage industry, which relying more on middleman (broker) than others, has the high-priced and idiosyncratic product features, it also faces the direct challenges from for-sale-by-owner (FSBO) websites. So the study tries to find out what is the key factor that caused the disintermediation and how far it goes in the real estate brokerage industry. The major findings of the study are that transaction cost is the real factor that caused the disintermediation, the functions and status of real estate brokers are still not easily to take place by FSBO websites and the later has to intensify content layouts, increase website’s reputation and offer extra services to attract more users to FSBOs.

財產稅素來為政府重要財政收入，有關財產稅稅基計算為政府與民眾關心之重要議題。國際上財產稅稅基評估方式，依收益來源之不同，可分為由「租金收入」所得之年租金價值，或由「交易」所得之市場價值。我國財產稅稅基為土地申報地價與房屋評定現值，屬於以成本法評估之市場價值。 本研究經由稅基理論之文獻回顧，並針對臺北市觀光旅館與辦公大樓進行模擬分析與迴歸分析，研究結果發現，國際上財產稅稅基評估方式為市場價值或租金價值，應用於臺灣其實屬於「成本價值」與「收益價值」之爭。本研究認為，基於商業不動產經營獲利特性、交易型態與行政便利，並且符合量能課稅原則，商業不動產宜採用收益面之租金價值作為財產稅稅基；然而，現行制度僅反映不動產成本面，未反映不動產收益面。另外，若以租金價值作為稅基，需扣除無形資產之價值。 最後，若財產稅稅制轉變為以租金價值作為稅基，就旅館而言，於政策上可以鼓勵廠商興建大規模觀光旅館，並對經營初期業者有利，對於旅館產業發展有助益。就辦公大樓而言，於政策上可以鼓勵廠商興建大規模辦公大樓，可以促進開發者整合較大面積土地進行開發。 / Property tax is one of the important tax revenues of the government. People care about how to calculate property tax base. There are two values-based approaches that depends on different revenue sources one is “Annual Rental Value” which is based on rents, the other is “Market Value” which is based on sales. The Taiwanese property tax is based on market value and on cost approach. The study explores the tax base theories and use differential tax incidence and regression model to test the property tax bases of hotels and offices. According to the literature, there are two main ways to assess the property tax bases: Market Value Basis and Annual Rental Value Basis. However, it turns out to be the difference of Cost Value and Income Value in Taiwan. Due to the revenue-generating feature and transaction style of commercial properties, administrative convenience and the ability-to-pay principle, the study suggests that we should use annual rental value as the property tax base of commercial properties. Nevertheless, the Taiwanese property tax base only reflects the cost of properties, not the revenue-generating capacities of properties. On the other hand, the rent value includes the intangible assets such as famous brand names, the additional value which is not from the property should be excluded from the tax base. Nevertheless, if the rental value is substituted for the cost value as a tax base, there will be some possible situations as a reference for policy makers. For hotels, it will encourage firms to construct big scale hotels, and it will be beneficial for the initial operation of hotels. For offices, it will encourage firms to construct big scale offices and it will promote the developers to create more land area as well. Keywords: commercial property, property tax, house tax, cost value, rental value

我國公部門出租不動產時，其租賃契約中之終止條件及續約條件等約定，與私部門間租賃契約頗有落差。而依據不動產估價技術規則第129 條規定：「不動產之租金估計應考慮契約內容、租期長短、使用目的、稅費負擔、租金水準、變遷狀態、租約更新、變更條件及其他相關因素估計之。」表示在訂定租金時需將契約內容及可能影響因素納入考量才符合公帄原則，然公部門租賃契約中之租金訂定是否將此等特殊條件納入考量，仍有待驗證。此部分在過去文獻中較少著墨，有鑑於此，本研究欲探討租賃契約中特殊條件(如單方面停止契約之權利)對租金之影響。 本研究先以特徵價格理論為基礎，建構複迴歸模型探討影響租金之因素，發現賦予出租方可逕為終止契約之權利，對商用不動產租金具有顯著影響；再進一步以二項式評價模式分析因終止契約條件不同，在租賃契約中隱含的實質選擇權價值變化，模擬結果發現租金成長率愈高，選擇權價值愈高；無風險利率愈高，選擇權價值愈低。研究結果符合選擇權理論，除了指出目前公部門資產租賃契約宜考量具特殊條件時租金之公帄性外，亦可提供爾後租約中含特殊條件時之租金定價參考。 / Rent is affected by various factors, including macro-economic, regional, individual and other related factors such as termination or renewal options. Public sectors in Taiwan prefer using template leasing contract for standardization concerns. The template leasing contract includes some terms favorable to lessors, such as termination option for lessors. The study focuses on the term to terminate the contract for lessors, which is especially considered imposing operation risk on tenants. This study at first employed the multi-regression model to examine factors affecting the rent level. Results show that the rent is significantly affected by the termination term for lessors besides other individual, regional and macro-economic variables. We further applied the binomial option pricing model to simulate how the value of leasing contract is affected by the termination options. Results show that the more the rent tends to grow, the higher value the termination term is; and the higher the interest rate, the lower value the termination term is. Results of this study provide precious implications for rent pricing as the contracts are embedded with the termination option.

主要目的在探討目前我國徵收不動產之扣失補償估價方法有何利弊得失，並研究外國 （尤其是日本）之各種損失補償估價方法，據以研擬合理之損失補償估價基準。 第一章：共分二節，敘述本文研究動機、研究目的、研究內容及研究方法。 第二章：共分四節，首先簡述徵收之一般情況，次闡述徵收損失補償之法律基礎與性 質，並評述我國現行之徵收損失補償標準。 第三章：共分六節，以土地所有權及他項權利、建築改良物、農作改良物、營業等損 失，改葬祭祀費用與共他通常所生之損失等為範圍，探討徵收損失補償應包含之項目 及其合理之估價基準。 第四章：共分十節，研擬徵收市地農地、建築物暨其基地、林地與立木、魚　、墳墓 、他項權利、農作物、工業用地等補償之估價方法，以供作徵收損失補償立法及執行 上之參考。 第五章：結論。