「避險」近年被認為是弱勢的中等國家爭取國家利益的最佳良策，然而這通常代表欲採此戰略選擇的國家，必須要同時與敵對的國家結成同盟，通常在經濟與安全領域的國家利益需求產生矛盾「悖論」，此間又以南韓在外交政策上的實踐最為顯著，本文將以朴槿惠主政下的南韓為例，探討在其「聯美和中」的外交平衡作法之下，受到地緣環境與傳統韓美同盟的制約的南韓，能否以此模糊的戰略選擇，兩面討好，達成獲取國家利益的最高政策目標。 / “Hedging Policy” is considered the best way to gain national interest for middle-power states in recent years. However, it means that state using this strategy has to cooperate or form an alliance with the enemy states. It usually known as a paradox to the security and economy issues of a state, and the most famous case is ROK. This article will take the ROK government led by president Park Geun-Hye for example, and discuss if the “Security issue rely on U.S., economy issue finds China” strategy did profit both from the two superpower in the world.

自從習近平在「莊園會晤」時向歐巴馬提出，中美共同建立新型大國關係，中共在亞太地區已經是掩蓋不住大國崛起的態勢。此時的平壤早已察覺到大國的壓力，面對中美關係日趨緊密，北韓為維持政權延續以及從中獲取利益，盡其所能提高在中美大國競爭時的籌碼，尤其是在東北亞各國政權更替時，施展戰略邊緣政策。 美國藉由北韓核試爆議題，成功部署軍事規劃、高舉國際輿論的大旗，迫使中共不得不對北韓施以必要措施。對於北韓不斷的舉行核試爆與導彈試射，中共在維護其重要國家利益與面對美國再平衡戰略的考量下，轉而借力使力，運用北韓核議題的持續發酵，得以延長應對美國及國際壓力。 因此，整個東北亞的關係結構，就是有關各國在中共與美國之間，取得對自己最大利益的位置。 / Xi Jinping proposed to Obama in the "Ennenberg Estate” summit in California during June 2013, Beijing has aftermath tried every effort to establish a “New Type of Great Power Relations” with Washington. China rise has been an obvious trend in the Asia-Pacific region. In this critical moment, Pyongyang has been aware of the pressure of big powers, in the face of China and the United States increasingly conciliatory relationship. In order to stabilize the North Korean regime and continue to take advantage of power politics in this area, North Korea tries to facilitate its bargaining gravity within the Sino-American interaction when they seek to use Pyongyang to counterbalance against each other. Particularly North Korea tends to exert its caliber of brinkmanship policy while it notices that the East Asian area is in the process of regime reshuffles. . Against the backdrop of North Korea's threat of continuing nuclear tests, Washington successfully accomplished military deployment and dominate direction of world public opinion in forcing China to impose the necessary measures on North Korea. For North Korea's ongoing nuclear test and missile test, China intends to manipulate its advantage based on its national interest. In the meantime, China implements this policy to counterweight the US “Rebalancing” strategy. Beijing goes to use the issue of North Korean nuclear development to further exert its strategy in responding to the pressures from both the United States and international community. Therefore, the international structure in the Northeast Asia, therefore, is that the concerning countries are seeking for their maximize advantage in the Sino-U.S. strategic engagement.

2002年7月31日，中共在「東協區域論壇」外長會議中，提出了「中方關於新安全觀的立場文件」，全面有系統地闡述了中共在新世紀下的安全觀念和政策主張，中共自1996年就提出應共同培育一種新型的安全觀念，中共領導人更多次在國際場合呼籲建立新安全觀，強調以對話協商增進了解和信任，通過協調合作促進和平與安全。 近年來，中共積極參與雙邊國際協定、多邊國際組織，強調「和平發展」重於一切，其中「東協區域論壇」與「上海合作組織」更被中共視為是新安全觀的具體成功實踐。新安全觀顯然已經成為中共順應經濟全球化與倡導世界多極化的主要工具，勢將成為中共對外政策的主調。因此，本文除探究中共新安全觀的背景與理念，更透過中共安全觀的改變、國際建制的參與，以掌握中共可能採行的國家安全政策與所面臨的挑戰。最終，並省思「新安全觀」為兩岸關係帶來的啟示。

中共自1979年推行「改革開放」政策，其社會主義市場經濟進入快速成長軌道，隨著綜合國力的日漸崛起，牽動著亞太區域乃至國際地緣政治的變化，並引發周邊國家對其國家戰略及軍事意圖產生疑慮，即使中共一再闡述「和平發展」及透過對話方式，以期化解各國對其崛起發展的疑懼，但由於開放資訊程度的不透明，在短期內迭起的「中國威脅論」難以改觀。 盱衡當今全球局勢，「中」美關係的發展確是重要考量因素。美國當前全球戰略與其國家安全利益，即是防止區域霸權崛起，威脅美國的區域安全利益。面對中共的崛起，美國己展開「重返亞洲」再平衡策略等一系列的遏制舉措，中共則展現企圖掌控亞太霸權的動機極其明顯。中共與美國戰略利益衝突勢難避免，可見未來的「中」美關係將更為嚴峻，這是中共第五代領導人習近平上台後及美國總統歐巴馬第二任期內的極大挑戰。從區域政治、經濟、安全的視角，無論是亞太區域權力競合、經濟資源開發或軍事策略運作、東海及南海主權爭議等，在在影響「中」美戰略競逐與形勢消長。 美國自2008年全球金融風暴之後，經濟頹勢與財政困頓，而中共的市場經濟持續發展，對於美國恢復經濟動能十分重要。由於經濟的互賴日漸加深，雙方處於一種既競爭又合作的關係。在此種競合交錯的複雜環境下，美國重返亞洲的策略布局，已然被中共視為遏制其崛起的一大挑戰。因此，全力在經濟、外交與軍事上採取各種反制的作為。在「中」美戰略競逐的新形勢下，中共應可體認自身實力與限制因素，在國際戰略情勢中，尋求對自己最有利的位置。 / Since the People’s Republic of China (PRC) released the “Chinese Economic Reform” in 1979, its socialism-oriented market economy has gone into a fast-growing orbit. With the rise of comprehensive national power, PRC has influenced the shape of Asia-Pacific region, even the global geopolitics, and resulted in the neighboring countries’ doubt on its national strategies and military intentions. Although PRC seeks to dissolve other countries’ doubt and fear through expounding on its peaceful development and dialogue, the opacity of information makes it difficult to change their views in a short time. The development of China-United States relations is indeed a major consideration in current global situation. The global strategies and national security interests of United States are to prevent the rise of regional hegemony from threatening its regional security interests. Facing the rise of PRC, United States has implemented rebalancing strategy “Pivot to Asia” as one of the containment measures. On the other hand, the motivations which China is competing for the leadership in Asia-Pacific are obvious. The conflict of strategic interests between PRC and United States is inevitable, and their relations will be more difficult in the foreseeable future. It will be a great challenge for Xi Jinping’s administration, the PRC fifth leadership generation, and United Sates President Obama’s second term. In the perspective of regional politics, economics and security, whether the power competition in Asia-Pacific, development of economic resources, implementation of military strategies, or the sovereignty disputes in the East and South China Sea, they are all influencing the increase and decrease of the strategic competition and situation between China and United States. Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the economy and finance of United States have suffered from recession. However, the market economy of PRC is continuing to grow and plays an important role to provide momentum for United States’ economy to recover. Due to the deepening economic interdependence, the relations of both sides can be competitive and cooperative. PRC has regarded Unites States’ “Pivot to Asia ”strategy as a challenge to contain it’s rise and therefore implemented economic, diplomatic, and military countermeasures. In the new situation of China-United States strategic competition, the PRC shall be aware of its strength and limitations to find its most strategic position in the international strategic circumstances.