工具機不僅在機械產業占有一席之地，在製造業更是扮演舉足輕重的 角色，生活周遭所使用的物品，許多都是由工具機所製造。工具機產業的 核心技術，仰賴資深員工的經驗傳承，因此教育訓練是工具機廠商營運的 流程中重要的一環。傳統DEA 要求所有的投入、產出資料必須為量化的數 據，然而現實生活中有很多重要的變數難以量化，Likert 量表發明後，學 者們大量使用Likert 量表量化這些變數，但是Likert 量表尺度的公平性 是許多學者質疑的重點。模糊DEA 透過模糊理論，改善Likert 量表尺度 公平性的問題，因此本研究使用模糊DEA 進行工具機廠商教育訓練績效的 分析，並比較Likert 量表尺度下的DEA 與模糊DEA 實證結果的不同，研 究對象為民國96 年的台灣地區85 間工具機廠商。 幾項重要的實證分析結果如下： 1. 整體技術效率差者，多為訓練積極的廠商。 2. 部分規模效率差的廠商，純技術效率表現尚在中等水平，表示這些廠商 只是因為訓練較為積極，使得投入在生產規模遞減的水準。 3. 工具機產業的教育訓練普遍有浪費的現象，顯示只要投入少許資源即可 達到相當的成效，若要突破某個瓶頸，就要增加相當多的資源。 4. 整體而言使用Likert 量表尺度或是模糊DEA 的結果沒有顯著差異，但 是對於效率較佳的廠商來說，模糊DEA 具有較高的鑑別力。 / The machine tool plays an important role in not only machinery industry but also the whole manufacturing industry. Most of goods around us are made by the machine tool. The core technologies hold by experienced employees depends on training to pass down. Therefore, training is an essential process in machine tool factories. In traditional DEA, all inputs and outputs need to be numeric data. But in reality, there are many key variables are hard to be measured in numeric. After Likert scale being invented, the scholars widely use the scale to evaluate these key variables. However, there is criticism of the equity in Likert scale. Fuzzy DEA corrects this disadvantage of Likert scale with fuzzy theory. As a result, this study evaluates the training efficiency of 85 Taiwanese machine tool manufacturers in 2007 with fuzzy DEA and comparers the result between fuzzy DEA and the method of Likert scale. Some important conclusions are shown as follow: 1. Most of the inefficient DMUs are active about training. 2. Although some DMUs are bad in scale efficiency, they are fair in pure technical efficiency. It explains that these DMUs just input at decrease return to scale (DRTS) level. 3. Generally, there is waste of training in this industry. The empirical result tells us they can obtain certain effects with little input. If they want to break through some bottle neck of training effects, they have to input tremendous resources. 4. As a whole, there is no difference between the result of fuzzy DEA and the method of Likert scale. However, there is better discrimination of efficient DMUs in fuzzy DEA.

ARCH在財務分析近來頗受重視，然而實務在建構ARCH模式時參數估計值很難有效估計，而且參數數字本身亦常存在不確定性，其原因可能來自時間數列資料的模糊的性質。利用此一假性的數值來建構模式影響預測，也可能擴大預測結果和實際狀況的誤差，很難讓一般投資者使用並判斷。本文在建構ARCH模式中，加入模糊邏輯概念，以符合實際情況在建構ARCH模式時參數動態的不確定性。嘗試以模糊數的來建構股價加權指數FUZZY ARCH模式，進一步預測，並與ARCH模式作比較分析。 / ARCH is more emphasized in financial analysis recently. However, it is difficult to estimate the parameters of ARCH model in practice. Because of the fuzzy property in time series , there exists the uncertainty in the parameters. Use the fictitious value to construct model and forecast the model will make the errors largely between the forecasts and the practical ones. In this thesis, we add the concept of the fuzzy logic to construct the ARCH model in order to conform the real situation. Also, an analysis of the stock data is provided.

在時間數列的分析上，由於一些辨識模型結構的方法，常受制於時間數列本身的非定態及不確定干擾的影響，因此若以單一模式來配適數列往往不能得到滿意的結果。 此外，傳統的統計方法太依賴數字本身，但當一時間數列其資料呈相當的模糊性時，我們往往僅對其走勢感興趣，故若能從圖形識別的觀點，找出與此時間數列具有高度相似性的資料，以作為此時間數列的領先指標或參考指標，應可比傳統單一時間數列模式（無論是線性或非線性）更能解釋資料走勢及解決結構性改變之問題，並能夠即時反應最丟出伏況，增加預測之準確性。 在本文中，我們考慮應用模糊理論建立一時間數列模糊相似性演算法 ，來辨識時間數列之間的相似性。在執行此演算法的過程申，我們依資料的特性如變異數是否改變、是否有離群值或突發值干擾等的不同，提出值域均分法、k-means值域均分法及Rank轉換法等三種方法來建構隸屬度函數 ，以求得對資料更好的解釋及預測結果。模擬的結果顯示 ，值域均分法在時間數列間的模糊相似性辦識表現最好。而在實證分析中，我們以此演算法來辨別GDP與民間消費、GDP與毛投資之間的模糊相似性，其結果相當不錯。 / An important problem in pattern recognition of a time series is similarity recognition. This paper presents the methods of similarity calculation for two time series. The methods considered include equally divided range method, K-rneans method and rank transformed method. The success of our similarity recognition relies a large extent on the fuzzy statistical concept. Simulation results demonstrate that, overall, the equally divided range method performed best in the similarity recognition. While other methods provide superior efficiency in calculating similarity for certain special time series. Finally two empirical examples, similarity calculating about GDP vs. Consumption and GDP vs. Invest, are illustrated.

目前網路上為了解決單身男女尋找配偶的問題，設計出一些網路交友平台。藉由速配機制，從茫茫人海中找出適合的另一半。本篇論文想要探討這些機制是否能夠達到最佳速配，使男女雙方找到適合自己的另一半。我們藉由模糊語意與軟計算技術，考慮以區間模糊數來計算兩者最小距離，以期達到最佳的男女速配。最後，我們改良Yahoo奇摩交友平台，並藉由實際資料來做模擬配對。由實證資料顯示，本研究方法，能將男女的速配度以更精確的數字呈現出來。 / So far, for the purpose of solving the problems of unmarried men and women who want to seek for spouses, people have designed some platforms for helping people make friends on internet. And from the “match system”, one can discover the suitable couple from the boundless huge crowd. But can these mechanisms attain the goal to reach the perfect match and find the another half? This paper use the fuzzy meaning and the soft computation technology to compute the minimum distance between two sets by trapezoid fuzzy number to make the suitability between men and women achieve the maximum.In the research designing part of the paper, we improve the Yahoo personals website in Taiwan, and we have the pals making by real data. From the research, we will find out that this way will help people choosing the pals who are close to everyone’s ideal spouse.

本研究針對澎湖縣馬公市三十四位國小五年級學童，進行五週標註系統輔助不同模糊容忍度學童進行英語閱讀學習的課程，旨在透過標註系統探討不同模糊容忍度之國小學童，在標註系統使用表現上的差異，以及使用標註後標註行為與閱讀成效的改變。 本研究蒐集了量化與質性的資料，量化的資料方面，以第二語言模糊容忍度量表、全國兒童暨青少年英語分級檢定之文章與測驗，與政大圖資所「數位圖書館暨數位學習實驗室」所開發的Glias閱讀標註系統為工具，獲得教學實驗資料進行統計分析；質性資料方面，係透過課堂討論學習單與半結構式訪談，獲得資料並進行分析。茲將主要研究發現分述如下： 一、標註系統有助於提升學習者的英語閱讀成績，特別有助於模糊容忍度低的學習者。 二、透過開放式標註，不同模糊容忍度學習者在部分類型標註與總標註數量上都顯著地減少，尤其是模糊容忍度中與低的學習者。 三、透過開放式標註，整體學生在個人意見的標註數量上顯著地增加。 四、不同模糊容忍度的學習者在開放式標註系統的標註字數與被投票數的表現上有所差異，但經過兩次開放式標註系統的使用後則無顯著差異。 五、不同模糊容忍度的學習者最喜歡建立也覺得最有用的都是解釋類型的標註，但不同模糊容忍度的學習者喜歡的理由各異。 六、模糊容忍度不同的學習者瀏覽時最喜愛的標註類型不同。 七、在兩次開放式標註下，不再是標註數量或標註字數多，分數才高。 八、重點提醒的標註寫得越好的學習者，其英語閱讀測驗成績越高。 九、模糊容忍度各組中進步最多者都善加應用標註系統的優勢。 十、多數學生對開放式標註系統輔助英語閱讀持肯定態度。 基於上述研究結果，本研究亦針對實務教學者與後續研究提出相關建議。 / This research focused on studying 34 elementary grade 5 students at Magong City, Penghu County and proceed five weeks of classes on students’ with different tolerance of ambiguity in English reading study through the assistance of annotation system. The purpose is to learn the differences on the students studying performance through the assistance of annotation system on students with different tolerance of ambiguity and the changes of reading result and annotating behavior after using the annotation system. This research collected a lot of quantitative and qualitative data, in terms of quantitative data, there are second language tolerance of ambiguity scale chart, the general English proficiency tests’ articles and tests for children and teenagers, and the statistical analysis gathered using the Glias reading annotation system tool developed by NCCU Graduate Institute of Library, Information and Archival Studies’ “digital library and digital learning laboratory.”; in terms of qualitative data are data and statistics gathered through class discussion and semi-structured interviews. A summary of the key findings are: 1. Annotation system effectively increases the English reading scores for students especially with low tolerance of ambiguity. 2. Through open annotation labeling, different students with different tolerance of ambiguity effectively reduced some types and the total numbers of annotation labeling, especially for students with medium and low tolerance of ambiguity. 3. Through open annotation labeling, the number of labeling in students personal opinion have increased. 4. Students with different level of tolerance of ambiguity have different performance in terms of the number of open annotation labeling system and the number of system that were voted, but after using open annotation system for two times, there were little differences. 5. Students with different level of tolerance of ambiguity like to establish and also think the most useful annotation labeling is the explanation types, but their reason for liking the system varies. 6. The favrorite browsing type of annotation labeling for students with different level of tolerance of ambiguity varies. 7. After two open annotation labeling, the score doesn’t increase when there are more annotation labeling. 8. The better annotation labeling for the main point is related to the higher score on the English reading test. 9. In different groups of students of different level of tolerance of ambiguity, the students that improve the most are students who know how to use the annotation system to its advantage. 10. Most students agreed that open annotation system is effective in assisting reading English articles. In conclusion, this research will also propose related suggestions to practice educators and the follow-up studies.

自Zadeh(1965)提出模糊集合論，將集合論之二值邏輯擴充至多值邏輯後，使得集合論更為完善，能更精確地描述實際問題之特性。由於教師評鑑的規準建構與測量方法皆深具模糊性，因此有必要針對評鑑問題之模糊特性，選擇適當之模糊理論。本研究以模糊德菲法以整合專家意見以建構評鑑指標，續以模糊層級分析法計算各指標間的相對權重。教師評鑑除考量量化指標外，由於質化指標常以語意詞句(linguistic terms)表達，故採取Chen和Hwang (1992)所提之轉換法將模糊評語集轉換為明確得點值(crisp score)。並利用模糊綜合評估以從事實際教師評鑑之結果分析，其中涉及不同運算算子間的差異比較。 本研究結果發現：教師評鑑指標體系包括教師評鑑指標共可區分為九大類主指標四十一項次指標。其主指標分別為「專業知識」、「教學準備能力」、「教學策略與實施能力」、「教學評量能力」、「運用教學資源能力」、「班級經營能力」、「專業責任」、「校務參與及服務績效」與「人際溝通能力」等九類；「專業知識類」次指標包括「任教科目的專門知識（含提供完整的知識架構）」、「教學方法的專業知識（含清楚教導概念）」、「課程與教材方面的知識（包括清楚目前的學習內容與先前的學習內容及未來的學習內容之間的關連）」、「教學情境的專業知識」、「輔導方面的知識（包括了解學生的心理）」與「學習與發展方面的知識（包括精熟學生背景知識和經驗）」等六項，「教學準備能力類」次指標包括「訂定教學計畫，妥善準備教具」、「根據學生學習需求及課程標準，訂定適合的教學目標」等兩項，「教學策略與實施能力類」次指標包括「教導認知、情意及動作技能的學習與遷移」、「教材展示精確又清楚」、「運用適當教學方法的技巧」、「對教學內容的解釋、舉例之能力」、「教學內容組織能力」、「引起並維持學生的學習動機與注意力」、「教學表達能力」、「傾聽兒童說話的技巧」、「促使學生延展其思考」等九項，「教學評量能力類」次指標包括「評量兒童表現並提供回饋與指導」、「根據評量結果改進教學歷程」、「適時而正確地評估學生進步情形」等三項，「運用教學資源能力類」次指標包括「妥善佈置教學環境」、「運用多樣教學資源」等兩項，「班級經營能力類」包括「輔導學生的能力（包括輔導學生因學業及日常生活所產生的困擾）」、「指導學生遵守生活常規，養成良好行為習慣」、「教室管理的技巧（包括建立愉快的班級氣氛、建立教室常規和程序）」、「有效運用獎懲手段」、「訂定適切的班級規範」與「創造適當的學習環境」等六項，「專業責任類」次指標包括「關懷與瞭解學生」、「工作勤惰」、「教學認真」、「教育信念」、「研究進修」與「敬業精神」等六項，「校務參與及服務績效類」次指標包括「主動積極協助校務推展」、「配合學校行政詳建各項學生檔案」、「對學校活動積極參與」等三項，「人際溝通能力類」包括「同儕教師溝通交流分享互動之能力」、「和家長保持溝通互動以維持良好的親師關係」、「建立和維持師生關係」、「教師能公平、公正地對待全部學生」等四項，合計四十一項次指標。 / Since Zadeh(1965) proposed the fuzzy sets theorem and further developed the theorem from　two-value logic to continues multi-value logic, the assembly theorem had become more completed and was capable of depicting the characteristics of real problem more specifically. Because the standard structure and measuring method of teacher appraisal are both ambiguous, it is necessary to adopt an suitable fuzzy theorem for this ambiguous characteristic of teacher appraisal. The study incorporated the opinions of specialists into structural evaluation indicator based upon Fuzzy Delphi and further calculated the relative weights among each indicator by Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process. The teacher appraisal not only need to quantify the indicator but also to qualify them using linguistic terms to express. Therefore, the study adopted the Chen-Hwang (1992) transfer method to transform the ambiguous evaluation terms into specific crisp scores and used the composite of fuzzy evaluation to engage the analysis of real teacher appraisal involving differentiated comparison among individual operants. The outcomes of the study demonstrated that the indicator system of teacher appraisal including teacher appraisal indicator consist of 9 major indicator and 41 minor indicator. The 9 major indicator were professional knowledge, capability of teaching preparation, teaching strategy and implementation ability, capability of teaching assessment , capability of employing teaching resource, capability of class management, professional duty, involvement of school managing and service achievement, and capability of interpersonal communication. The 6 sub-indicator in the professional knowledge category includes professional knowledge of the specific discipline with a comprehensive knowledge structure, professional knowledge of teaching methods included a lucid teaching concept, professional knowledge of class and teaching material included understanding of the connection between the current and future learning contents. professional knowledge of teaching situations, professional knowledge of consulting included understanding of student psychology and professional knowledge of learning and developing included awareness of student background knowledge and experiences. There were two sub-indicator in the capability of teaching preparation (making a teaching agenda and preparing teaching tools, and planing a proper teaching goal based upon student learning need and class standard. The 9 sub-indicator in the teaching strategy and implementation ability were, understanding of guidance and learning and transferring of mental and physical skills, demonstration of teaching material precisely and clearly, employment of proper teaching skills, the interpretation of teaching contents and exemplification faculty, ability to organize teaching contents, inspire and maintain learning motivation and attention of student, faculty of teaching expression, listening skills concerning the child talk, and stimulate the extension of student thinking. The 3 sub-indicator in capability of teaching evaluation were, evaluation of child perfor-mance in order to render guidance and feedback, rescheduling the teaching agenda according to the evaluation outcomes, and accurately and timely evaluating student progression . The capability of employing teaching resource category consisted of implementing teaching environment congruently and adopting diversified teaching resources. The 6 sub-indicator in capability of class management were faculty of student guidance (consulting the student problems causing by class-learning and everyday activities), lead students to fellow the normal rules and to keep righteous behavior habits, class room managing skills ( establish an amicable classroom atermosphere and the classroom guidelines and procedures), proper employing award/ punish system, making the proper classroom paradigm, and create suitable learning environment. The 6 subindicator in professional duty were concerning and understanding students, working habits, teaching sincerity, teaching believe, advancing research, reverence to occupation, The 3 subin-dicator in involvement of school administration and service achievement were, actively assisting the school administration to implement, cooperating the school administration to establish the student records, actively engaging the school activities. The capability of interpersonal communication category composed of 4 subindicator, capability of communicating and interacting with teaching colleagues, capability of communicating and interacting with student parents and maintain a good teacher-parent relationship, establishing and keeping the teacher-student relationship, treating all student with equality and fairness. The grand total of sub-indicator were 41.

慢城於1999年崛起於義大利，主要是為了因應全球化浪潮下對歐洲小農經濟衝擊所形成的一個新型態的規劃模式。其目的主要是在保護地方文化與傳統的基礎上，創造出永續成長的力量，透過地方微型經濟的復興與替代能源的使用等多種方式，在不改變生活節奏的狀況下促進地方的發展。現在已有24國142個城市加入慢城組織，這股風潮與模式值得我國參考。本研究以慢城指標為主，應用模糊德爾菲與層級分析法專家問卷建立一套適合台灣慢城指標，並以新竹縣北埔鄉、南投縣集集鎮、高雄市美濃區、花蓮縣壽豐鄉為實證地區，經計算後以南投縣集集鎮績效值最高，為較適合發展慢城的地區。 / Cittaslow(Slow city) was launched in 1999 in Italy, mainly to counter the tide of globalization under the impact of the European small-formed a new type of planning model. The main purpose is to protect local culture and traditions, based on the power to create sustainable growth through the revival of the local micro-economy and alternative energy, use of a variety of ways, without changing the rhythm of life, under conditions to promote local development. Now has 142 cities in 24 countries to join Cittaslow Organization, and this trend, and the model is worthy of our reference. In this study, the Cittaslow index-based, application of fuzzy Delphi and AHP process to establish a suitable Cittaslow index, and Hsinchu County Beipu Township, Nantou County Chichi Township, Kaohsiung Mino District, Hualien County, Shou-Feng,empirical region, calculated with the highest performance value of the Chichi Township, Nantou County, is more suited to development of the Cittaslow Key words: Cittaslow、urban planning、Fuzzy Delphi Method、AHP Method

本研究旨在建構台灣地區大學排名指標，並藉以評估大學辦學品質。研究方法部分，先以文獻分析歸納出大學排名指標之九大構面與六十八項指標，再以專家問卷以及模糊德菲術問卷進行調查。模糊德菲術調查樣本為二十位高等教育學者與行政首長，本研究透過三角模糊數整合專家對指標重要性之看法並篩選指標項目，最後以歸一化之方式求得各構面以及各項指標權重，完成台灣大學排名指標體系。根據研究之結果與分析，歸納主要結論如下： 一、本研究建構之台灣地區大學排名指標，含九大構面共29項指標。 指標九大構面依權重高低依序為： 教師素質(12.7%)、學校課程與教學 品質(12.5%)、研究表現(11.7%)、大學聲望(11.6%)、學生素質(11.5%)、 學生與畢業校友表現(11.5%)、學校資源(10.0%)、國際化(9.7%)、校園弱勢關懷(8.8%)。 二、教師素質構面共包含三項指標：具博士學位之專任教師比例(4.4%)、專 任教師中教授所佔比例(4.2%)、專任教師比率(4.1%) 三、學校課程與教學品質構面共包含兩項指標：師生比(6.5%)、大學生對大學課程的評價(6.0%) 四、研究表現構面共包含八項指標：全體教師平均獲得研究獎助數(1.5%)、曾獲國家層級學術獎項之教師比率(1.5%)、具全國性專業學會院士成員身分之教師比例(1.5%)、全體教師在Nature、Science刊物，SCI、SSCI、TSSCI、EI以及A&HCI收錄期刊之論文發表平均數(1.4%)、全體教師在Nature、Science刊物，SCI、SSCI、TSSCI、EI以及A&HCI收錄期刊之論文平均被引用次數(1.5%)、全體教師刊載於國內有外審制度期刊與研討會之論文平均數(1.4%)、全體教師發表於國際研討會之論文平均數(1.5%)、全體教師教師專書出版之平均數(1.4%) 五、大學聲望構面共包含三項指標：國內學術同儕聲望調查(4.0%)、雇主對畢業生之滿意度評價(3.8%)、畢業生對母校評價(3.9%) 六、學生素質構面共包含兩項指標：新生甄選入學接受率(4.9%)、以考試分發入學新生之學科測驗平均成績(6.6%) 七、學生與畢業校友表現構面共包含三項指標：五年內學生贏得全國性學術獎項數(3.7%)、該年度畢業生就業(畢業六個月內覓得全職工作)及繼續唸研究所的比例(4.1%)、學以致用率(3.7%) 八、學校資源構面共包含兩項指標：每生之學校年度經費總額平均(4.8%)、每生平均年度學校圖書設備經費(5.2%) 九、國際化構面共包含三項指標：以華文以外領域為主修之國際學生比率(3.2%)、國際教師比率 (3.0%)、全校國際合作計畫件數(3.5%) 十、校園弱勢關懷構面共包含三項指標：招收弱勢學生(2.8%)、大學生平均在校工讀時數(2.7%)、學校年度經費作為清寒學生補助之比例(3.3%) 最後，本研究依研究結果分別提出以下建議： 一、對高等教育主管機關之建議 二、對進行、發布大學排名者之建議 三、對排名資料使用者之建議 四、對未來研究之建議 / The purpose of this study is to construct the Taiwan university ranking indicators which aim to evaluate the education quality of universities. As for research methods, by means of literature review, 68 indicators within 9 main dimensions had been organized as a raw model of Taiwan university ranking indicators based on which the Fuzzy Delphi questionnaire was developed and the survey was conducted with the sample size of 20 higher education experts. Symmetric triangular fuzzy number then was used to analyze experts’ opinion on the importance of each indicator and to help indicator selection. At last stage, normalization of fuzzy number’s total score determined the weight of each dimensions and indicators; accordingly, the Taiwan university ranking indicator system was constructed. The main conclusions are as follows： 1.The Taiwan university ranking indicator system consists with 9 dimensions and 29 indicators in total. The 9 dimensions are: faculty quality(12.7%), curriculum and teaching(12.5%), research(11.7%),reputation(11.6%), student selectivity(11.5%), performance of students and graduates (11.5%), financial resources(10.0%), internationalization(9.7%), inclusiveness(8.8%). 2.The dimension of faculty quality consists with： percent of full-time faculty with top terminal degree(4.4%), percent of full-time faculty as professor(4.2%), percent of full-time faculty(4.1%) 3.The dimension of curriculum and teaching consists with：staff:student ratio (6.5%), student evaluation of course(6.0%) 4.The dimension of research consists with：research grants per academic staff member(1.5%), percent of academic staff member with National Faculty Awards(1.5%), percent of academic staff member with Academy membership (1.5%), publications on Nature, Science, SCI, SSCI, TSSCI, EI and A&HCI per academic staff member (1.4%), citations per article on Nature, Science, SCI, SSCI, TSSCI, EI and A&HCI (1.5%), articles in peer-reviewed journals per academic staff member (1.4%), articles in international conferences per academic staff member (1.5%), publications of book per academic staff member(1.4%) 5.The dimension of student selectivity consists with：Acceptance Rate(4.9%), Entry score(6.6%) 6.The dimension of reputation consists with：peer assessment(4.0%), employer assessment(3.8%), graduate assessment(3.9%) 7.The dimension of performance of students and graduates consists with：the success of the student body at winning national academic awards within 5 years(3.7%), graduate employment(4.1%), correspondent (3.7%) 8.The dimension of financial resources consists with：revenue per student(4.8%), library spent per student 9.The dimension of internationalization consists with：percent of international students (excludes those who major in Chinese) (3.2%), percent of international academic staff member (3.0%), international cooperation projects(3.5%) 10.The dimension of internationalization consists with：attract students from underrepresented groups(2.8%), working hours at school per student (2.7%), expense as subvene for the poor students(3.3%) According to the conclusions, some suggestions had been proposed： 1.suggestions for higher education administrators 2.suggestions for those who are going to conduct university rankings 3.suggestions for university ranking information users 4.suggestions for further study.

適逢電價調漲階段，引發各界對於電價合理化之諸多討論，在民主意識高漲的現今社會，公營事業的角色開始受到轉型與挑戰，如何制訂出既能符合民意，同時亦能達到目標的政策是不可忽視的課題。因此本研究採用模糊層級分析法（Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process），以永續發展的三大框架-經濟、社會與環境做為建構國家永續發展合理電價關鍵因素的主要層級，並由國內外文獻分析彙整出此三個構面下與電價相關的九個次層級和二十二個子層級。根據 20 位電價政策相關之政府機關、能源電業領域之學者以及一般產業用戶填寫問卷之結果，歸納出臺灣在永續發展的前景下，制訂合理電價之關鍵因素，研究結果發現: 權重值在 0.2 以上有 4 項，大幅領先其他項目，前三名分別為臺電發電成本之權重（0.393）最高，其次為反映核能輻射汙染成本（0.3761）、需要維生設備之病患電價優惠(0.279)以及節約能源效益（0.2679）。顯示出合理電價之考量應確實反映發電成本，而在電力對環境的議題上，核能汙染問題是最被關注的選項，大幅超過對其他環境汙染因子的考量。接著在照顧弱勢的社會層面中，以予以需要維生設備之病患電價優惠最為優先，其原因可能在於缺電成本高於其他同層面的低收入戶及身障機構。整體評估而言，三項最大的權重值平均分佈在主層級的三大面向中，顯示國家永續發展之合理電價應兼顧經濟、社會與環境的平衡發展。

近年來，隨著科技的進步與工商業的發展，預測技術的創新與改進愈來愈受到重視，同樣地，對於預測準確度的要求也愈來愈高。尤其在經濟建設、人口政策、經營規畫、管理控制等問題上，預測更是決策過程中不可或缺的重要資訊。有鑑於此，本論文嘗試應用模糊關係方程式，提出多變量模糊時間數列建構過程及轉折區間檢測模式理論架構。另一方面，多變量模糊時間數列模式建構過程，研究者曾提出很多轉折點之偵測與檢定方法，然而在實際的例子中，時間數列之結構改變所呈現出來的是一種緩慢的改變過程，即轉折點本身就是模糊不確定。這個概念在建構不同模式分析各國經濟活動數據時更顯重要。本論文針對轉折區間之檢測提出一個完整的認定程序。多變量時間數列系統中的隸屬度函數等於在計算成果指標群時的群集中心。應用本論文提出的方法，我們以德國、法國及希臘之總體經濟指標GDP為例，考慮通貨膨脹率、GDP成長率及投資率來進行轉折區間的檢測。 / In recent years, along with the technological advancement and commercial development, the creation and improvement of forecasting techniques have more and more attention. Especially at the economic developments, population policy, management planning and control, forecasting gives necessary and important information in the decision-making process. Regarding stock market as the example, these numerals of closing price are uncertain and indistinct. Again, the factors of influence on quantity are numerous, such as turnover, exchange rate etc. Therefore, if we consider merely the closing price of front day to build and forecast, we will not only misestimate the future trend, but also will cause unnecessary damage. Owing to this reason, we propose the procedure of multivariate fuzzy time series model constructed and theory structure by fuzzy relation equation. Combining closing price with turnover, we apply our methods to build up multivariate fuzzy time series model on Taiwan Weighted Index and predict future trend while examine the predictive results with average forecasting accuracy. A fuzzy time series is defined on averages of cumulative fuzzy entropies of the tree time series. Finally, an empirical study about change periods identification for Germany, France and Greece major macroeconomic indicators are demonstrated.