本研究探討服務設計、展覽體驗、體驗價值、顧客滿意度與推薦意願之關聯，以2010年台北國際花卉博覽會為例。主要研究目的是想了解花博園區的服務設計內容，是否會使前往花博的顧客有不同的體驗經驗，間接增加體驗價值，進一步使滿意度增加，進而願意推薦親朋好友前往參觀？也想了解是否因為顧客個人因素的不同，導致不同的體驗價值與顧客滿意度？ 本研究有效紙本問卷有136份，有效網路問卷有461份，全部問卷共597份。利用典型相關與迴歸分析，發現良好的服務設計將會帶給花博顧客正向的展覽體驗；良好的展覽體驗提高體驗價值；較高的體驗價值使顧客對此次花博擁有較高的滿意度進而使推薦意願提高。接著透過MANOVA、ANOVA、多重比較與T檢定，發現參觀花博的時間不同，對於體驗價值與顧客滿意度有所差異；而第一次參觀花博月份的不同，使滿意度有所差異；累計參觀花博次數不同，對於體驗價值與滿意度也會有所差異。 / In this study serive design, exhibition experience, experiential value, customer satisfication and recommendation are used to investigate the 2010 Taipei Flora Expo. The main purpose is to understand how the host organization service design used in the Flora Expo, caused tourists to have different experiences, increased experiential values, satisfication and recommendation. The study will also investigate whether different personal factors will cause different experiential values and satisfication. There are 136 subjects from paper questionnaire and 461 subjects from on-line questionnaire. Total subjects are 597. Using Canonical Correlation, Regression, MANOVA, ANOVA, Post Hoc and T test the resulting data is as follows： 1. Service design had a positive correlation to experiential marketing. 2. Experiential marketing had a positive correlation to experiential value. 3. Experiential value had a positive correlation to satisfaction. 4. Satisfaction had a positive correlation to recommendation. 5. Different visiting days (weekday, weekend, both) had different experiential value and satisfication 6. During the month (11-12, 1-2, 3-4) of people visting for the first time had different level of satisfication. 7. The amout of times (1, 2, above 3 times) visiting the expo had different experiential values and satisfication.

近年來由於地理資訊系統（GIS）的快速發展發，空間資料分析開始受到重視並在社會科學領域中逐漸扮演重要的角色。雖然一般的統計方法已在傳統資料分析上發展已久，然而它們卻不能有效地說明空間性資料，並且無法充分處理空間相依或空間異質性問題。一般而言，空間資料分析主要有兩個分派:模型導向學派與資料導向學派。本文研究目的在於應用空間統計方法合理且充分地評估房地產價值，研究方法包含地理統計(克利金和共克利金)、地理加權迴歸與空間特徵價格模型等，並且以台中市不動產資料進行實證探究。這項新的研究技術在不動產評價領域中將可提供更好的解析能力，使其在評價過程中或是不動產投資決策時，成為一個更強而有力的分析工具。 / In recent years, spatial data analysis has received significant awareness and played an important role in social science because of the rapid development of Geographic Information System (GIS). Although classic statistical methods are attractive in traditional data analysis, they cannot be executed seriously for spatial data. Standard statistical techniques didn’t sufficiently deal with spatial dependence or spatial heterogeneity issues. Generally, the model-driven method and the data-driven method are mainly the two branches of the spatial data analysis. The purpose of this paper is to apply spatial statistics methods including geostatistical methods (kriging and cokiging), geographically weighted regression, and spatial hedonic price models to real estate analysis. It seems to be completely reasonable and sufficient. The real estate data in Taichung city (Taiwan) is used to carry out our exploration. These techniques give better insight in the field of real estate assessment. They can apply a good instrument in mass appraisal and decision concerning real estate investment.

本論文一共分為兩大主題，分別為匯率連結商品之評價與分析，及違約事件相關係數之估計。在結構型金融商品於市場上熱賣之後，金融業者紛紛投入財務工程領域，競相推出類似的產品。然而，自1971年世界各國開始實行浮動匯率制度之後，匯率風險較以往提高不少，因此各種不同設計的外匯衍生性商品開始不斷地問世。有鑑於此，本文希望藉由分析市場上的匯率商品：「新加坡華僑銀行一年期匯率連結結構型存款」，讓發行商和投資人了解結構型商品設計的要點與風險所在。在此商品中，本文利用多變數蒙地卡羅模擬法求出商品的近似價格，除了看發行商是否有利可尋之外，也提供發行商可行之避險策略。同時，本文也透過商品條款分析與情境分析，讓投資人了解其獲利所在與將面臨的風險。 / 由於近年來信用事件層出不窮，顯示出信用風險控管的重要性，信用衍生性商品也因而開始蓬勃發展。目前信用衍生性商品以信用違約交換為最大宗，擔保債權憑證(Collateralized Debt Obligations, CDO)為其次。由於一籃子信用衍生性商品和擔保債權憑證涉及多檔標的資產，在評價時，公司之間的違約相關係數是個重要因子，因此本文在另一個主題上，透過Robert Jarrow與Donald van Deventer(2005)提出的違約相關係數之估計方法，以簡約模型估計違約相關係數，利用台灣公司資料做實證分析，期許對連結多項標的資產之信用衍生性商品之評價有所幫助。

競爭風險之下對邊際分配的估計，是許多領域中常遇到的問題。由於主要事件及次要事件互相競爭，只要一種事件先發生即終止對另一事件的觀察，在兩事件同時發生的機率為0之下，連一筆完整的資料我們都無法蒐集到。除非兩事件互為獨立或加上其它條件，否則會有邊際分配無法識別的問題。但是獨立的條件在有些情況下並不合理，為解決相依競爭風險之邊際分配無法識別的問題，可先假定兩事件發生時間之間的關係。 由於關聯結構定義出兩變數間的結合關係，我們可利用關聯結構解釋兩事件發生時間之間的關係。假定兩變數之相關性參數為已知，且採用機率積分轉換的觀念，本論文討論了Zheng 與 Klein提出的關聯結構-圖形估計量，是否會依設限程度、相關性強度和關聯結構形式的不同，以致估計能力有別。 / The problem of estimating marginal distributions in a competing risks study is often met in scientific fields. Because main event and secondary event compete with each other, and a first occurring event prevents us from observing another event promptly, the intact lifetimes or survival times are unable to be collected in the circumstances that the probability of both lifetimes coinciding is 0. Unless lifetimes being independent or adding other conditions, there is a problem that the marginal distributions are non-identifiable. But the condition of independence is not always reasonable, we may assume the relation between lifetimes has some special form Because the copula defines the association between two variables, it can be employed to explain relation between lifetimes. Assuming that the dependence parameter in the copula framework is known, and adopting the concept of the probability integral transformations, this thesis has demonstrated whether the estimating abilities of the copula-graphic estimator, that Zheng and Klein put forward, are different in rates of censoring, intensities of dependence, and forms of the copula.

進行調查時，最後的抽樣單位常是從不同的群集取得的，而同一群集內的樣本對象，因背景類似而對於某些問題常會傾向相同或類似的反應，研究者若忽略這種群內相關性，仍以獨立性樣本進行分析時，因其共變異數矩陣通常會與多項模式的共變異數矩陣相差懸殊，而造成所謂的額外變異或不足變異的現象。本文在不同的情況下，提出了Dirichlet-Multinomial模式(簡稱DM模式)、擴展的DM模式、以及兩種平均數-共變異數矩陣模式，以適當的彙整所有的群集資料。並討論DM與EDM模式中相關之參數及格機率之最大概似估計法，且分別對此兩種平均數-共變異數矩陣模式，提出求導廣義最小平方估計的程序。此外，也針對幾種特殊的二維表及三維表結構，探討對應的參數及格機率之估計方法。並提出計算簡易的Score統計檢定量以判斷群內相關(intra-cluster correlation)之存在性，及判斷資料集具有額外或不足變異，而對於不同母體的群內相關同質性檢定亦提出討論。 / This paper presents a modelling method of analyzing categorical data with overdispersion or underdispersion.　In many studies, data are collected from differ clusters, and members within the same cluster behave similary.　Thus, the responses of members within the same cluster are not independent and the multinomial distribution is not the correct distribution for the observed counts.　Therefore, the covariance matrix of the sample proportion vector tends to be much different from that of the multinomial model.　We discuss four different models to fit counts data with overdispersion or underdispersion feature, witch include Dirichlet-Multinomial model (DM model), extended DM model (EDM model), and two mean-covariance models.　Method of maximum-likelihood estimation is discussed for DM and EDM models.　Procedures to derive generalized least squares estimates are proposed for the two mean-covariance models respectively. As to the cell probabilities, we also discuss how to estimate them under several special structures of　two-way and three-way tables.　More easily evaluated Score test statistics are derived for the DM and EDM models to test the existence of　the intra-cluster correlation.　And the test of homogeneity of intra-cluster correlation among several populations is also derived.

國軍為社會之一環，也必須隨著社會進步，積極提昇人員的本質學能，才不致於為社會所淘汱，國軍自85年「精實案」後，93年再實施「精進案」，其所透露的訊息即是國人希望國軍部隊是一個「質精，量小，戰力強」的勁旅，在未來的人員逐漸遞減，國防業務依舊繁重的情況下，國軍幹部必須大幅提升個人工作能力及效率，才足以應付各項挑戰。目前既有的軍事教育體系所無法一時滿足的，準此，國防部積極推動「終身學習制度」並以學費補助配套措施為誘因，鼓勵國軍幹部利用公餘進修，希望能將所習得的知識運用於工作上，大幅提昇工作效率。 　　我空軍二代兵力自86年起相繼成軍，高科技精密武器與裝備業已順利獲得，而戰力之發揮，有賴我空軍官兵高素質人員之操作，如此方可發揮我空軍最大戰力，因此，解決迫切的人員素質提昇，便是空軍幹部「終身學習」的重要課題。 空軍政戰軍官在未實施精進案第二階段組織調整前，雖佔空軍軍官人數的十分之一（約1000餘人），未來精進案組織調整定編後，可能更少於這個數字。然而，其分佈於空軍每一個層級，小至排、連級，大至師、軍團及總部級，只要有官兵的地方，一定就有政戰軍官在列。　　空軍政戰軍官已參與終身學習，雖有逐年增加，但比例仍算少，如何瞭解影響空軍政戰軍官終身學習的真正原因，進而提昇空軍政戰軍官終身學習意願，除對提昇空軍整體終身學習具有指標作用外，對空軍未來發展將有重大影響。 　本研究擬對空軍政戰軍官終身學習影響相關因素，做一分析探討，並針對其影響因素提出具體建議，以為學術單位及空軍組織提供終身學習政策之參考，主要研究目的有以下四點： 一、瞭解空軍終身學習制度是否週全。 二、大學院校終身學習管道能否配合空軍政策需求。 三、空軍政戰幹部個人及組織單位、家庭狀況及社會關係等問題，影　 　　響其終身學習意願程度如何。 四、將研究結果做成具體建議，以為空軍組織及學術單位提供終身學 　　習環境與政策之參考。 　　最後依據研究結論，提出以下建議： 一、對國軍終身學習主管機關的建議 （一）貫徹「上下班制」，有助終身學習參與 （二）提高「學費補助」，促進終身學習參與 （三）加強「終身學習」政策推廣與宣導 二、對教育機構的建議 （一）進修科目排定，以進修者實需考量 （二）課程時間安排，採彈性化調整 （三）教學地點設置，採增設或彈性調整 三、對單位組織的建議 （一）主官（管）支持，鼓勵參與進修 （二）開放連結網際網路，增進資料蒐集 四、對個人及社會的建議 （一）充實本職學能，提昇國軍戰力 （二）爭取社會支持，獲得進修動力 / The Armed Forces, one part of the society, should actively enhance each individual’s profession in order not to be knocked out. After “Jingshih Program (The ROC Armed Forces Strengthening Program)” in 1996, the Armed Forces brought “Jingjin Program (The ROC Armed Forces Refining Program)” into practice in 2004. These moves meant that all ROC’s citizens expect the Military to be an armed force with “refined quality, low quantity and strong power.” In the future, military faculty is in gradual reduction but national defense affairs are still burdensome; therefore, in order to tackle all challenges, every cadre has to advance his personal working ability and efficiency in great deal. Presently, educational system in the army couldn’t satisfy the need. Because of this, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) actively sets ”Lifelong Learning System” into practice and provides tuition subvention as a seducing motive, encouraging all cadres go for advanced study on holidays. MND hopes all cadres to utilize their acquired knowledge in their works, consequently enhancing working efficiency. The second generational forces in Air-Force were formed since 1997. We also obtain high-tech weapons and equipments successfully. It still depends on the operation of all Air-Force members with high quality. In this way, Air-Force could bring its fighting power into full play. Accordingly, the significant problem of “Lifelong Learning” in Air-Force cadres is to solve the urgent enhance of personal quality. Before the second phase organizational modulation in Jingjin Program, political warfare officers were only 1/10 (about 1000 people) of all officers in Air-Force. In the future, the number would be less after the organizational modulation in Jingjin Program. However, political warfare officers are in every order in Air-Force, from a platoon and a company to a division, a legion and even the Headquarter; wherever there are officers and soldiers, there are political warfare officers. The number of political warfare officers in Air-Force who go for advanced study increases year by year, but it grows in low proportion. To understand the real reasons that affect lifelong learning in political warfare officers in Air-Force and to improve their will to learn would play the role as a directional function in enhancing the whole lifelong learning in Air-Force and have great influence on the future development in Air-Force. This research aims to do analysis and discussion about the relating factors that affect the lifelong learning for political warfare officers in Air-Force. To supply academic institutes and Air-Force organizations with the information concerning policies about lifelong learning, the research lists some practical suggestions by integrating those effecting factors. Four main objectives of this research are as follow: I. To understand if lifelong learning system in Air force is thorough. II. To know if the ways to lifelong learning in all colleges could meet the needs of Air-Force political policy. III. To see how personal problems, organizations, family situations and social relationship affect Air-Force political warfare officers’ will to lifelong learning. IV. To provide Air-Force organizations and academic institutes with information about lifelong learning environment and policy after summing up some practical suggestions based on the research results. Last, I offer some suggestions according to the conclusion: I. Suggestions about the military lifelong learning for the authoring institute: (I) Implement of “Working Hours from 9 to 5” helps participation in lifelong learning. (II) The increase of “tuition subvention” stimulates participation in lifelong learning. (III) Promotion and propaganda of lifelong learning policy. II. Suggestions for educational institutes: (I) Arrangements of learning subjects must meet the learners’ practical needs. (II) Schemes of timetables should be flexible. (III) Arrangements for teaching locations should be in larger quantity or in flexibility. III. Suggestions for the authority: (I) Support for the authority stimulates the participation in advanced study. (II) Free Internet connection helps data collection. IV. Suggestions for individuals and the society: (I) Fullfill personal profession to improve fighting power in the armed forces. (II) Gain social support to motivate advanced study. Keywords: The Armed Forces cadres,Lifelong Learning of the Armed Forces cadres,Lifelong Learning of the Armed Forces,Political Warfare Officers,Effecting Factors of Lifelong Learning

獨立因子模型廣泛的應用在信用風險領域，此模型可用來估計經濟資本與投資組合的損失率分配。然而獨立因子模型假設因子獨立地服從同分配，因而可能會得到估計不精確的違約機率與資產相關係數。因此我們在本論文中提出序列相關因子模型來改進獨立因子模型的缺失，同時可以捕捉違約率的動態行為與授信戶間相關性。我們也分別從古典與貝氏的角度下估計序列相關因子模型。首先，我們在序列相關因子模型下利用貝氏的方法應用馬可夫鍊蒙地卡羅技巧估計違約機率與資產相關係數，使用標準普爾違約資料進行外樣本資料預測，能夠證明序列相關因子模型是比獨立因子模型合理。第二，蒙地卡羅期望最大法與蒙地卡羅最大概似法這兩種估計方法也使用在本篇論文。從模擬結果發現，若違約資料具有較大的序列相關與資產相關特性，蒙地卡羅最大概似法能夠配適的比蒙地卡羅期望最大法好。 / The independent factor model has been widely used in the credit risk field, and has been applied in estimating the economic capital allocations and loss rate distribution on a credit portfolio. However, this model assumes independent and identically distributed common factor which may produce inaccurate estimates of default probabilities and asset correlation. In this thesis, we address a serially dependent factor model (SDFM) to improve this phenomenon. This model can capture both dynamic behavior of default risk and dependence among individual obligors. We also address the estimation of the SDFM from both frequentist and Bayesian point of view. Firstly, we consider the Bayesian approach by applying Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques in estimating default probability and asset correlation under SDFM. The out-of-sample forecasting for S&P default data provide strong evidence to support that the SDFM is more reliable than the independent factor model. Secondly, we use two frequentist estimation methods to estimate the default probability and asset correlation under SDFM. One is Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization (MCEM) estimation method along with a Gibbs sampler and an acceptance method and the other is Monte Carlo maximum likelihood (MCML) estimation method with importance sampling techniques.

從層出不窮的社會案件中，不難窺知，實務上社會給付行政，存有落實不力、進而對弱勢者造成諸多不利益影響之問題，誠揭櫫了，建立專屬於弱勢者社會給付之行政體系之必要性。然而，對於弱勢者社會給付行政體系之建立，首要前提便是─須確立對弱勢者族群，國家有給予較多之保護與保障之職責。據此，於憲法層次意義上的討論便格外具有其重要性。爰此，本文將主軸置於社會國原則之探討，以及國家保護義務之分析，並嘗試推敲二者間之相互關係為何，以作為對弱勢者保護之憲法基石。主要參酌德國法制實務與學理之探討，作為討論之軸心；並對照我國實務暨學理上的討論為統整融合。 奠定於社會國原則與國家保護義務所建構之憲法核心思維基礎後，本文認為進行關於弱勢者社會給付行政體系之建立，將更具正當性與合理性。復而秉持著上開憲法上中心思想，參酌比較法制度，針對社會給付行政實務中廣泛可見之行政指導，以及相對於傳統干預行政體系之社會給付行政特性，進行微調與修正。前者將以日本法制度為對照組；後者則以德國社會行政程序法為主要觀察對象，遂嘗試擬定一我國社會給付行政體系之雛型。嗣後並反觀我國法制度規範，推敲採納該體系之可行性與可效倣理由。 透過對弱勢者社會給付行政體系之憲法上社會國原則暨國家保護義務之基礎，以及行政法體系之雛型，解決目前實務可能發生之怠為／不為、錯誤之行政指導；民眾協力義務要求程度之疑問、機關職權調查之必要性；乃至於實體層面信賴保護原則之相關問題。另外，並針對協力義務與職權調查容忍義務部分，涉及社會給付與受領社會給付者之憲法基本權衝突的議題做一檢視；以及源自英美國家之「工作福利」（workfare）制度，立於憲法基本權侵害之切入視點，檢討納入我國社會給付行政制度之運行操作是否合適妥當。

現今解釋錯誤偵測系統及前扣帶皮質（ACC）的關係之理論主要為增強學習理論。增強學習理論認為個體會在行為後對於行為結果產生預期，並將該預期與實際結果進行比較，若實際結果較預期結果差則會活化ACC進而觀察到較大的FN（Feedback Negativity）振幅。近年來有學者提出奠基於增強學習理論的錯誤可能性理論，錯誤可能性理論則認為當個體在學習到行為與結果之間的關聯後，當接收到可能犯錯的訊息時便會活化ACC而引起較大的FN。本研究主要的目的為探討增強學習理論及錯誤可能性理論的適用性，其次為探討風險之因素是否能反映於FN上。由於兩理論對於風險情境中是否會觀察到FN有不同的預測，錯誤可能性理論預測會在高風險的情況下觀察到較大的FN；而增強學習理論則預測由於風險畫面並非回饋畫面，故風險不會影響FN。實驗一藉由探討風險與FN間之關係企圖提供兩理論初步之區分並提供風險研究的實驗證據，實驗一結果顯示FN確實會反映風險之因素。也點出增強學習理論用以解釋錯誤偵測系統之不完備之處。而實驗二則利用操弄回饋結果好壞及高低錯誤可能性以檢驗錯誤可能性對於錯誤偵測系統之必要性，實驗二結果顯示錯誤可能性為事件評估之因素之一。除此之外，實驗二亦提供FN反映懊悔之支持性證據。

過去的研究指出，具有威脅訊息的情緒臉孔會比正向情緒臉孔快速地吸引個體的注意力。視覺搜尋研究發現情緒臉孔的突顯程度會引發由下而上的注意力攫取，而由下而上的注意力攫取是否能夠被由上而下的因素所凌駕，一直是一個很重要的論爭，因此，本研究同時呈現兩種情緒臉孔，並以文字線索引發由上而下注意力選擇，以探討由上而下的因素是否能夠凌駕情緒臉孔之注意力攫取，並比較不同情緒臉孔攫取注意力的強度。實驗一探討文字線索是否能夠幫助注意力搜尋目標情緒臉孔。實驗二使用一致效果當作注意力攫取指標，探討當臉孔情緒與作業相關時，由上而下因素是否能夠凌駕干擾情緒臉孔為生氣臉孔或快樂臉孔之注意力攫取，以及比較生氣與快樂臉孔攫取注意力的強度。實驗三延續實驗二的研究，將臉孔情緒改為與作業無關，比較生氣臉孔與快樂臉孔攫取注意力的強度。實驗四與實驗二實驗程序相同，但增加倒立中性臉孔與生氣臉孔或快樂臉孔同時呈現情況，如此在以倒立中性臉孔為目標或干擾臉孔情況，可以比較生氣臉孔與快樂臉孔之由上而下因素注意力選擇與由下而上注意力攫取強度。本研究結果在大部分情況下並未獲得一致效果，顯示由上而下之注意力選擇會影響由下而上之情緒臉孔攫取注意力，使得干擾臉孔未能吸引注意力於其上。然而由下而上注意力攫取仍影響搜尋情緒臉孔的反應時間，結果顯示生氣臉孔與快樂臉孔競爭下，生氣臉孔的突顯程度大於快樂臉孔，說明生氣臉孔較快樂臉孔吸引注意力。 / Previous studies using visual search task showed that the saliency of the emotional faces was sufficient to induce the bottom-up attentional capture. It is a critical debate that whether top-down factors can override bottom-up attentional capture. To address this issue, we presented two emotional faces at the same display while using word cues to induce top-down attentional selection. Experiment 1 investigated the effect of word cues on the target face searching. Using congruency effect as an index of attentional capture, Experiment 2 investigated whether top-down factors could override attentional capture of the emotional distractors when emotion is task-relevant and the degree of attentional capture of angry faces was compared with that of happy faces. In Experiment 3, face emotion was changed to be task-irrelevant rather than task-relevant, and the degree of attentional capture of angry and happy faces was also contrasted. In Experiment 4, the invert neutral face was included additionally as another target or distractor. We can use the invert neutral face as the common basis to dissociate the components of top-down attentional selection and bottom-up attentional capture, and contrast the attention effects between angry and happy faces in these two aspects independently. The results showed that congruency effect could not be found in most conditions. This implies that top-down attentional selection can influence the bottom-up attentional capture of emotional faces. But reaction time for searching target was still found to be influenced by bottom-up process. When an angry face competes with a happy face, the saliency of the angry face is higher than the happy face.