本文主要針對台幣兌換美元的匯價，採用移動平均法則給定的交易訊號模擬交易，透過模擬交易得到顯著異於零的超額報酬，試著利用條件資本資產定價模型解釋超額報酬與風險之間的關係。實證結果顯示：在傳統資本資產定價模型下，超額報酬無法透過承擔風險所獲得風險貼水來解釋，但加入金融危機事件的影響後，發現在金融危機期間，市場風險係數下降，異常報酬增加，表示在此期間，即使市場大盤表現不佳，技術分析仍能成功捕捉台幣兌換美元的匯價變動趨勢，使金融危機期間的技術交易報酬平均高於金融危機前後。

在日益競爭激烈的聯貸市場中，發生超額認購之情形越來越普遍。當公司發生超額認購後，通常會對貸款條件進行調整。本研究使用LPC資料庫與Compustat資料庫，並且依據「超額認購後公司的調整情形」作分類，分別研究其後續資金運用之決策上有何差異。實證結果指出，超額認購後調升貸款金額的公司中，投資機會較高之公司群後續將資金運用於資本支出上，投資機會較低之公司群則是將資金以現金形式保留在公司內部，且兩者均不會將資金發還給外部投資人。另外，此兩類公司之經理人薪資以及紅利均上升，但是卻伴隨著較差的盈餘表現，印證公司內部存在某種代理問題。尤以投資機會較高之公司群而言，前三大經理人持股反而在高額認購後下降，更加深股東與經理人之間存在代理問題的疑慮。

本研究對1985/1至2016/10期間，37種貨幣的超額報酬與國家風險進行實證分析，以The PRS Group發佈的ICRG綜合風險評級做為國家風險的衡量指標。各國貨幣分別進行時間序列分析的結果顯示，單一國家的國家風險與該國貨幣的匯率走勢及超額報酬並不存在顯著的關聯。 投資組合分析的結果，對高國家風險貨幣與低國家風險貨幣分別執行利差交易，結果顯示兩者的超額報酬並沒有顯著差異。而動能策略在高國家風險貨幣則可以獲得顯著較高的超額報酬。 Fama-Macbeth二步驟迴歸分析結果顯示，高國家風險的投資組合確實擁有較高的因子負載量，然而國家風險因子的市場價格，也就是承受一單位 β_CRISK獲得的國家風險溢酬太低不顯著，因此國家風險無法幫助解釋貨幣報酬。 / We empirically investigate the relation between currency excess returns and country risk, as measured by the ICRG comprehensive risk rating issued by The PRS Group, of 37 currencies during 1985/1 to 2016/10. The result of the single currency time series analysis shows that there is no significant correlation between the country risk and the exchange rate movement, also the currency excess return. As a result of the portfolio analysis, there is no significant difference in excess returns when we execute carry trade respectively on high country risk currencies and low country risk currencies. While the momentum strategy in the high country risk currencies can generate significantly higher excess return. The results of the Fama-Macbeth two-step regression show that the high-risk portfolios do have a higher factor loading, whereas the country risk factor's market price, that is, the country risk premium received by a unit of β_CRISK, is too low. Therefore, country risk cannot help explain currency excess return.

本文主要在探討在較為短的時間段以及不同的金融環境之下，是否仍然能捕捉到匯率市場中主要解釋投組報酬變動的共同風險因子－平均超額報酬以及利差報酬。我們依據重要金融事件將全樣本分為八個子樣本；總共使用39種幣別並將1983年11月至2015年10月的遠期貼水由小到大排序後，依序建構六個投資組合。全文以美國投資者的觀點出發。結果顯示平均超額報酬無論是在長期或短期的時間段下，仍然為匯率市場中解釋匯率報酬變動的主要風險因子。然而，利差報酬則不然。在銀行危機期間，利差報酬與第二主要成分之相關係數皆為高度負相關。近期自2008年次貸危機開始，利差報酬與解釋投組變動的第二主要成分之相關係數也從先前的0.8~0.9降至-0.80.此結果顯示利差交易似乎在次貸危機之後有所轉變。此外利差風險因子無法有效的解釋動能報酬。 / This paper investigates whether or not the common risk factors, dollar and carry trade risk, in currency markets proposed by Lustig, Roussanov and Verdelhan (2011) will still exist even under a short-run period with a concern of different financial backgrounds. A split of full sample into eight subsamples with respect of financial events is made. A total of 39 currencies is used to build six portfolios on the basis of the forward discounts from November 1983 to October 2015. The whole paper is in the view of an American investor. The finding suggests that under both long-run and short-run period, the dollar return is always the common factor in currency markets. However, it is not the same case for the carry trade return. During bank crises, the carry trade return is strongly negative correlated with the second component. The carry trade return turns out to have a negative correlation with the second component during and after the subprime crisis, decreasing from 0.8~0.9 in the previous subsamples to -0.80. It indicates that the desirability of carry trade activities has changed since the subprime crisis. Besides, the carry trade risk has a little power to explain the variations of momentum returns.

過去國內文獻大致指出投資人難以依靠券商的投資建議獲利，此與大部份國外文獻的發現相異。本文參考Barber et al. (2001)，建構一個適用於台灣股票市場的研究方法，再以四因子模型做實證。本文以2007年3月至2015年12月，共48987筆卷商個股報告為研究樣本，來探討券商報告的投資建議能否獲利。本文研究結果發現，台灣的券商報告擁有額外的資訊價值，此與Barber et al. (2001)及其他國外文獻大致相同。 本研究依券商的推薦強度建構四個投資組合。發現推薦程度高的投資組合平均月報酬為正，且高於大盤；而推薦程度低的投資組合平均月報酬顯著低於大盤，且擁有顯著的負超額報酬。本文進一步建構買進賣出策略，即買進推薦股票高的投資組合並賣出推薦程度低的投資組合，發現此策略報酬顯著高於零及大盤，且存在顯著的正超額報酬。另外在台股多頭期間，本研究的實證結果更加顯著，推薦程度高的投資組合平均月報酬增加至顯著高於大盤，且超額報酬顯著為正；推薦程度低的投資組合之大盤調整報酬及負超額報酬的顯著程度提高；而買進賣出策略獲得超額報酬的顯著程度也大幅提高。 / Past Taiwanese literatures generally indicated that it is difficult to obtain profit from Taiwanese stock recommendations of brokerage, which is different from most of foreign literatures. Referring to Barber et al. (2001), we improve and build a research methodology applied to Taiwanese stock market, conducting empirical analysis with four-factor model. From March 2007 to December 2015, we use total 48987 brokers’ stock recommendations as sample to investigate whether inventors could earn profit from the broker recommendations. Our empirical results show that Taiwanese broker reports hold additional information, which is consistent with Barber et al. (2001) and most of foreign literatures. According to the strength of recommendation, we construct four portfolios and find that the return of the most favorable portfolio is higher than market, while the return of the least favorable portfolio is significantly smaller than market and holds significantly negative access return. We further construct a long-short strategy, which buys the most favorable portfolios and shorts the least favorable portfolios. The return of this strategy is significantly higher than market, and excess return is significantly positive. During Taiwanese bull market, the significance of our empirical result improves. The significance level of market-adjusted return and access return for both the most favorable and least favorable portfolio is higher. In addition, the significance level of excess return for long-short strategy also greatly improves.

近年來許多的產險公司因為買不到比例性的天災再保險合約，不得不使用超額賠款再保險方式以規避和轉嫁天災風險，但也因此承擔相當大的天災累積風險。 本文將企業風險管理的概念引進，把保險公司的再保部門模擬成企業的風險管理部門，期能更精確地定位保險公司再保險部門的功能、應該扮演的角色及未來經營策略。 超額賠款再保險之使用與產物保險的經營關聯密切，其最重要關鍵在於風險自行承擔，因此其間的保費收入、再保費成本支出等有關費率釐定計算方式，可說是超額賠款再保險之精華所在，亦為保險相關從業人員必備之專業知識。由於超額賠款再保險運用到許多統計相關的計算說明，本文之論述期能幫助保險相關從業人員找到各方的均衡點，有助於保險事業將資源做最有效率、效能的經營。 本文針對財產保險運用超額賠款再保險經營實務之考量加以介紹，同時強調經營者必須提升專業，包括損防服務、專業化核保、作業流程電腦化、財務風險管理等，尤其在計算天災的累積和購買適當再保險的承保容量方面，這亦有助於保險公司對天災風險的評估與認識。 最後，本文籲請保險公司主管必須重視目前以超額賠款再保險風險自留方式所承保之業務其費率是否適當，尤其是天災風險，所謂多算勝，少算不勝，而況於無算乎？否則會和賭場的賭客一樣， 大部分人是輸光退場的。 / Excess of Loss Reinsurance has become the viable solution in Taiwan’s insurance community, since the constraints were imposed by reinsrers a few years ago that natural catastrophe exposures could not be fully transferred to proportional treaties. But, the insurers also take very large natural risks at the same time. The aforementioned is the key issue to be discussed at the first part of this text, which introduces the concept of “corporate risk management” that Risk Management Department in enterprise is playing a role very similar to Reinsurance Department in an insurance company. We can, from this perspective, easier and clearer identify the functions and business objectives of Reinsurance Department in an insurance company. One distinctive advantage over proportional reinsurance is that, by adopting XOL reinsurance, ceding companies can expect to retain more premiums. Virtually, the performance of XOL operations is directly linked to the level of reinsurance cost, so it is very vital for insurance people to be fully aware of the connections between their insured exposures and reinsurance prices. A number of charts, tables, and cases are illustrated in the text for the calculation of XOL prices, and readers, particularly those who are doing insurance business, of this text are able to fairly locate the equilibrium of reinsurance cost that can be mutually accepted by the insured、brokers、reinsurers and insurers. Actual practices of applying property XOL reinsurance are analyzed in the text, which has also highlighted the importance of upgrading insurers’ professionalism, including loss prevention, underwriting, work-flow computerization, financial risk management, in particular, aggregate control on natural perils and adequate reinsurance protection. My conclusions and recommendations are pinpointing the issues required to be dealt with by the authorities for the adequacy of direct premium rates, particularly for the business with natural perils that are retained under XOL programs. Insurers are destined to be out of the market, sooner or later, if they are unable to charge sufficient premiums to finance their losses in the long run.

決定自留額是保險人承接業務時之主要考量因素，以發揮保險之基本原理原則：危險分散與損失分攤。自留額釐定不當，不僅影響保險人財務結構，甚至波及公司整體核保營運成果而危及清償能力。本文選擇某產險公司實際損失分配資料，探討不同自留比例與再保方式對營運結果之影響，結果顯示在此實際損失分配資料模型下，適度調高自留比例，應可增加核保利潤。本文進一步以相關性分析探討自留配置。 / Retention is a key element for the insurer to determine how much it wishes to retain for its own account for the risks it has written. This point is fundamental to carrying on the business of insurance and akin to the principle upon which insurance is based, namely the spreading of risks and sharing of losses. The risk of incurring a retained loss owning to inadequate retention, which would imperil financial objective even can affect the overall underwriting results and arise insolvency. This paper select data base of occurred loss distribution for the past three years to study the impact of different retained ratio and different type of reinsurance for performance. This paper shows that, the underwriting profit can be expected to increase when the retention increases precisely under the existing loss distribution model . This paper also discuss the related factors in deciding retention by correlation analysis.

民國91年1月2日啟動交易的「興櫃市場」，提供投資者一個合法、安全及透明的未上市（櫃）股票交易市場，而依台灣證券交易所(TSEC)上市審查準則及櫃檯買中心(OTC)上櫃審查準則之規定欲申請初次申請上市（櫃）股票之公開發行公司，必先登錄興櫃股票，並掛牌交易達六個月以上，先熟悉市場交易規則及充分透明的資訊揭露，進而才有資格申請成為上市櫃公司。然興櫃市場是否具有「價格發現」機制，又影響其申請上市櫃(IPOs)股票蜜月現象因素為何，係本研究之探討重點。 本研究主要探討興櫃公司初次申請上市（櫃）(IPOs)股票蜜月現象及其影響因素，研究目的在於「暸解檢驗興櫃公司從興櫃登錄至申請上市（櫃）（IPOs）期間是否存在超額報酬，並從公司基本因素、公司於興櫃市場表現因素、公司上市（櫃）時條件因素、市場景氣與制度因素與公司治理因素等五大類，瞭解其對於IPOs蜜月現象的影響。此外，並以實際登錄興櫃公司申請上市櫃進度，從興櫃股票在登錄興櫃日、上市（櫃）送件日、上市（櫃）審議委員會通過日等三個不同時點的兩個超額報酬，相對於上市（櫃）審議委員會通過日至上市（櫃）掛牌日這段期間之超額報酬的影響。另解析個案公司SWOT分析結果，探討個案公司相對於其所面對外部環境之機會與威脅，以及公司內部環境所具備的優勢與劣勢等相關影響因素。 本研究運用複迴歸分析，得到實證結果發現興櫃申請上市(櫃)公司： 1.「登錄興櫃日至上市（櫃）送件日之超額報酬」主要與產（行）業別、興櫃交易天數、登錄興櫃日至上市（櫃）送件日之大盤漲幅、會計師事務所聲譽等因素有關。 2.「上市（櫃）送件日至審議委員會通過日之超額報酬」受到公司成立年數、興櫃交易天數、稅後EPS、登錄興櫃日至上市（櫃）送件日之大盤漲幅、上市（櫃）送件日至審議委員會通過日之大盤漲幅的影響。 3.「審議委員會通過日至上市(櫃)掛牌日收盤價之超額報酬」與產（行）業別、興櫃個股日平均成交金額、興櫃交易天數、中籤率、承銷價、登錄興櫃日至上市（櫃）送件日之大盤漲幅、上市（櫃）送件日至審議委員會通過日之大盤漲幅、審議委員會通過日至掛牌日收盤價之大盤漲幅、首五日無漲跌幅限制、會計師事務所聲譽有關。 4.「議定承銷價至上市(櫃)掛牌日收盤價之超額報酬」則是受到公司成立年數、興櫃交易天數、承銷價、稅後EPS、首五日無漲跌幅限制等變數的影響。 除上述影響因素外，個案分析興櫃申請上市櫃(IPOs)公司可發現若該公司在產業皆具有領導地位、產品當紅有競爭利基（如ＩＣ設計等）具有國際競爭力及成長潛力、掌握關鍵研發創新技術、營收或獲利不斷成長、有較高毛利率及稅後每股盈餘、部份有富爸爸資源支持及垂直整合從與外資青睞，從登錄興櫃經審議委員會到上市（櫃）掛牌皆有超額報酬現象。 / Emerging Stock Market, which was started the transaction on January 2, 2002, provides the investors a legitimate, safe and transparent stock transaction market of unlisted company. According to the listed examination criterion of TSEC and OTC, an initial public offerings (IPOs) company has to be listed and transacted on Emerging Stock Market for over than six months to be familiar with the transaction rule of market and disclose the information of the company fully transparently. Then it has the admissibility of applying to transfer to listed market. This thesis mainly explores the honeymoon effect of IPOs stock and its influence factors. The five purposes including: 1. To examine whether there is exceed return when an emerging company transferring to an IPOs company. 2. To discuss the influence to the exceed return of IPOs by the five group factors, including the company fundamental, the performance in Emerging Market, the conditions of the company at IPOs, the market situations and systems, and the company governance. 3. To discuss the influence to the exceed return of IPOs by the two time period factors between the three time points: listed day in the Emerging Market, the apply day to TSEC and OTC, and the day the application approved by Examination Committee of TSEC or OTC. 4. To give SWOT analysis (combined with five forces analysis) in the case studies to explore, of the target companies, the opportunities and threats of the external environment and the strengths and weakness of the internal environment. 5. To apply the exploration in Purpose 1, Purpose 2, and Purpose 3 to the target companies in the case studies. By using multiple regression model, we found the following results: 1. The exceed return from the listed day in Emerging Market to the apply day to TSEC or OTC is related to the industry, the days staying in Emerging Stock Market, the performance of TSEC index, and the reputations of accountant business offices. 2. The exceed return from the day applying to TSEC or OTC to the day the application approved by Examination Committee is related to the company age, the days a company staying in Emerging Stock Market, the EPS after tax, and the performance of TSEC index. 3. The exceed return from the day the application passed by Examination Committee to the closing price at listing day is related to the industry, the average amount of transaction in Emerging Stock Market, the days a company staying in Emerging Stock Market, the transaction lot size, the stock offering price, the performance of TSEC index, the 7% price limit has been cancelled under the new underwriting system in five trading days after IPO, the reputations of accountant business offices. 4. The exceed return from the IPOs price to the closing price at listing day is related to the company age, the days a company staying in Emerging Stock Market, the stock offering price, the EPS after tax, the 7% price limit has been cancelled under the new underwriting system in five trading days after IPO. Besides the above factors, we found, from the case studies, that IPO companies have the exceed return when they possess: the leadership in the industry, the international competitiveness and growth potential of their niche products, the key creative technology of R&D, the continuation growing of revenue and profit, the higher profit rate and the EPS after tax, the support of the parent group, and the foreign capital investors.

過去台灣的地震保險一直受到忽略，因此缺乏完整的地震損失資料。本研究主要的目的是利用統計方法來模擬地震損失，估計地震損失所造成的直接損失金額，並且進一步討論如何控制地震超額損失保險的預期損失。 本研究推論災害性地震發生頻率是一個負二項分配﹔而損失幅度則利用所求出的房屋倒塌數模型，再假設每一棟倒塌房屋的個設價格作加總而得，因此模擬出地震損失，可以估計出預期地震損失，並且可以進一步建立地震損失機率分布情況。 對於控制地震超額損失保險的預期損失，本研究提出以理賠上限與理賠起始點兩種方式來作損失控制。實證結果發現，利用理賠上限作超額再保險會比較可以控制地震損失。同時也可以利用模擬出的結果來決定應該如何設立理賠上限與理賠起始點。 / The earthquake insurance in Taiwan is ignored for many years, so that the data of earthquake is lacked. This study applied the statistical methods to simulate the earthquake losses in Taiwan, and estimated the loss amount, and discussed how to control the expected loss of excess-of-loss insurance. The frequency of disaster earthquake is a negative binomial distribution. And the severity of each disaster earthquake is to sum up the assumed dollar amount of each damaged houses. Compounding the frequency of earthquake with the severity of earthquake, we can simulate the losses of earthquake. Hence the expected earthquake losses and the probability density function of earthquake losses are built. In order to control the expected loss of excess-of-loss reinsurance, this study compared the results of the trigger level and the capped level of the reinsurance claim, and concluded that the capped level is better than trigger level in controlling the expected loss of excess-of-loss insurance.

本研究根據Housman（1981）的實證方式，對我國現行所得稅制對男性經濟戶長之勞動供給影響進行迴歸分析，進而估計目前我國所得稅制度下，個人的最適勞動供給曲線，並求算在此一勞動供給曲線下，所得稅對不同納稅人所造成的無謂損失（分別以高所得階層及中低所得階層代表性個人加以計算）。 利用民國八十七年「人力資源調查」所做出的實證結果發現，稅後工資率與非勞動所得的變動，對勞動工時皆有相當顯著的解釋能力。其中稅後工資率的係數符號為正，表示當工資上升，休閒相對價格提高，故個人會減少休閒，而勞動工時會相對增加；非勞動工時的係數符號為負，表示休閒為正常財，個人會隨所得提高而增加休閒時間，故勞動工時會相對減少，而比較二者的效果，非勞動所得變動對勞動工時的影響，較稅後工資率變動對勞動工時的影響為大。同時，累進所得稅對勞動供給所造成的無謂損失，無論在絕對量或相對於稅前總所得的比例，皆隨總所得的提高而增加，因此所得稅對高所得者效率上的衝擊較低所得者來得大，亦即所得稅扭曲高所得者的勞動供給行為之程度，較低所得者的扭曲程度為大。