The global financial crisis has been catalogued as one of the worst economical recessions since the Great Depression in 1930’s. The history in Latin America has shown that the region has been turbulent in respect of economic crisis. They were three main channels, which are divided in contagion and/or interdepended to Latin America; first the remittances saw a drop, the smallest countries like the Central Americans countries were the most affected by this channel. The second channel was in the export with the freeze in the international trade market. And the third channel was the financial shock with global finances and credit constraint. For the seven biggest economies; Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela; the second and third channel were the ones that most affected them. There is not proof that within the region toxic assets were acquired; this is the main raison that we have take macroeconomics variables to measure the impact of the crisis. Thanks to the propitious economic circumstances in the past years made Latin American countries had a great economic growth, this helped them to grow their international reserves and have a healthier fiscal system. Those two tools were fundamental to fight against the crisis with counter cyclical policies. Also most of the countries have started to diversify they exports to other regions, focusing more in Asia especially the gigantic Republic Peoples of China. Some countries apply this strategy more aggressively than others, and as a result they bounced back quicker than other countries. It has been said, that this kind of economic depressions only happens once every one hundred years. Latin America suffered as the entire world did, but they were better prepare and their strategies worked to reactivate their local economies. Some countries have been economically performing better and have kept their inflation and unemployment rates at the same level as before the crisis started.

京都大学 / 新制・論文博士 / 博士(経済学) / 乙第13395号 / 論経博第406号 / 新制||経||298(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科 / (主査)教授 岩本 武和, 教授 根井 雅弘, 教授 島本 哲朗 / 学位規則第4条第2項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・論文博士 / 博士(経済学) / 乙第13049号 / 論経博第393号 / 新制||経||279(附属図書館) / 33139 / 九州大学大学院経済学研究科 / (主査)教授 岩本 武和, 教授 島本 哲朗, 教授 溝端 佐登史 / 学位規則第4条第2項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM

過去三、四十年來世界各地發生金融危機的頻率較從前高出許多，探究原因後可以發現，與各國陸續開放金融自由化以及國際金融市場快速成長有極大的關係。除此之外，在各國中，金融危機的發生通常具備一些共同特徵，諸如危機發生時會導致資金外流、匯率大幅貶值、股市重挫、產出減少、進出口減少…等影響。因此，面對這一波次級房貸風暴，本研究也即將檢視美國在總體經濟數據上各方面的表現，希望能利用1970年以來已開發國家和開發中國家歷年來所發生的貨幣、銀行危機下所代表的各種總體經濟數據，經過轉化整理後，透過Logistic迴歸模型建立一個迴歸方程式，以了解金融危機的發生與實質匯率、進出口…等其他解釋變數之間的關聯，並利用此模型探測現階段次級房貸風暴對美國可能引發金融危機的機率值，以探討其合理性。 / We find that the frequencies of the financial crises are higher for the past forty years in the world. It is due to the financial liberalization and international financial markets which grow rapidly. Besides, financial crises usually company with some common characteristics such as capital outflow, the depreciation of the foreign exchange, the shock of the stock market, the decreasing of the production and so on. Therefore, in order to understand this financial crisis of the subprime mortgage, this thesis surveys the economic data of developed countries and developing countries from 1970s and figures out the performances of these countries under balance-of -payments crises or banking crisis. We use the logistic regression model and transform the data to construct a regression model. After understanding the relationship between the explaining variables, we use this model to predict the probability of possible financial crisis in U.S. under the subprime mortgage crisis and then discuss the rationality of those predicted values.

自1997亞洲金融風暴以來，區域性金融危機的傳染現象(Contagion, or Spillover Effect)便受到經濟學界高度重視，其重要性在2008年雷曼兄弟事件所引發的全球性金融海嘯後更加突顯，而相關的資本管制也陸續出籠，其中最引人注目的當屬2010年通過實行的三代巴賽爾條約(Basel III)。本文奠基於Allen and Gale(2000)所提出的銀行同業拆借市場(Interbank Market)模型，配合資本適足率的導入，試圖驗證在資本管制的設定之下，是否能有效預防銀行恐慌與其蔓延現象之發生。其結果證實提高資本適足率後，藉由銀行本身主動的提高緩衝性準備(Buffer)，銀行倒閉的發生機率將顯著降低，換言之，資本適足率管制有效提高了銀行倒閉門檻。同時，本文亦證實資本管制對於銀行同業拆借市場所衍生的傳染現象具有顯著的改善效果。 然而，資本適足率之管制雖具有穩定金融體系的作用，其對存款人消費之緊縮效果卻無可避免會降低其效用。本文在考慮銀行倒閉風險機率後，建立一兩期之社會福利涵數，並利用計算代表性個人(Representative Agent)預期效用極大化條件下的最適資本適足率。在特定參數之下，所得到最適資本適足率為6.375%。我們並且進一步證實，在權益資金報酬率小於長期資產報酬率之下，最適之資本適足率將同步增加，進而使社會福利最大，此符合一般的經濟直覺，同時再次突顯金融體系穩定性對於社會福利的重要性。 / The financial contagion phenomenon, or the spillover effect, has become a crucial issue in recent years after the breakout of the financial crises in 2008. To deal with such problem, some regulations such as the capital requirement, has been introduced as a solution. In our paper, we develop a model based on Allen and Gale (2000) to testify whether the introduction of the capital requirement can successfully reduce the risks of bankruptcy and contagion phenomenon for the interbank system when suffering from the regional liquidity shock. We conclude that after the introduction of capital requirement, the bank will voluntarily hold more buffers to lower the bankruptcy risk and reduce the spillover effect. What’s more, we construct an optimal level of the capital requirement that maximize the social welfare utility and depends on the probability of bankruptcy, the percentage of early withdrawals, the relative cost of capital and other parameters. By simulation, we have the optimal capital requirement at 6.375% in our benchmark case, which is a reasonable one compared with the current Basel Accord. Finally, the paper shows that as the cost of capital is getting lower, bank uses more capital which enhances the social welfare significantly in equilibrium, indicating the great importance of financial stability.

近年來，伴隨著俄羅斯經濟實力的提升，俄羅斯金融體系持續茁壯，並推動俄羅斯國內對金融安全需求的迅速增長。俄羅斯金融體系受政治影響極深，中央銀行缺乏獨立性。2007 年次貸風暴對俄羅斯經濟傷害甚鉅，2008年7雷曼兄弟宣布倒閉後，總計10個月內盧布貶值幅度高達52.5%，從MSCI股價指數波動率(equity VIX index)觀察美國、俄羅斯、日本及歐洲，顯示俄羅斯股市波動率最高，以2007 年的136.7 及2008 年的432.7 居冠。在金磚四國中，俄羅斯短期資金的流動性較高，股市波動率也較高。俄羅斯金融體系不良貸款比率高，易發生金融傳染危機，不良貸款比率高出其他國家4 到8 倍。 在金磚四國中，俄羅斯短期資金的流動性較高，股市波動率也較高。總體而言俄羅斯金融體系近年愈為穩健，俄羅斯的金融存款機構信任度在2008年~2010年有明顯提高趨勢，但存款機構內不良貸款比率仍偏高，同時俄羅斯金融體系易受國際金融傳染危機影響俄羅斯金融體系不良貸款比率高，易發生金融傳染危機，若能降低目前俄羅斯金融存款機構的壞帳比例及呆帳率，則俄羅斯的金融安全會更加穩固。 / In recent years, along with the upgrading of Russia's economic strength, Russia's financial system continued to thrive, the needs of financial security growth rapidly. Russia's financial system is deeply influenced by political power, and their central bank is lack of independence. Subprime crisis hurt the Russian economy hugely, in July 2008, after Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy; ruble devalued 52.5% in 10 months. MSCI stock index volatility equity VIX index) for U.S., Russia, Japan and Europe, shows Russian stock market volatility rate was 432.7 and also the highest of all. In the BRIC, Russia presented higher short-term liquidity, and the stock market volatility. Overall, Russia's financial system is more robust and stable in recent years, from 2008 to 2010, the depository trust in Russian financial institutions increased significantly, while Russia's financial system is still vulnerable to the contagion of international financial crisis.

本研究主要在探討中國大陸各類型企業在不同登記註冊類型或所有權結構下，借貸成本是否有所差異。本研究利用中國國家統計局2001至2009年的「製造業規模以上企業年度調查」為資料來源，將各企業分為國有企業、私營企業、集體企業、港澳台企業，與外資企業，分別探討貸款成本是否因不同類型之企業數據而有所差異。其中又將國有企業分類依隸屬關係分為中央（央企）與省（省企），分別驗證其隸屬關係與貸款成本的關聯。另外，本文也將探討上述差異是否因中國國務院國有資產監督管理委員會成立 (2003) 前後及金融危機 (2008) 前後而有所不同，因此本文將以結合時間序列資料與橫斷面資料之追蹤資料為基本模型假設。研究結果發現國有企業的確可以以較低的利率水準向銀行貸款，且中國的國有銀行對中央企業與省企業的放款標準可能存在某種程度的差異，此種現象在國資委成立之後更為顯著；而金融危機之後，則是可能因為各類型企業皆受到同幅度的波動影響，導致向銀行貸款利率之差異減少。

2008年10月美國次級房貸風暴導致世界各大投資銀行面臨鉅額虧損，在經歷本次嚴重的金融危機後，國人對於理財風險認知程度有否變化？以及選擇金融理財顧問的標準將會如何轉變？基於以上研究動機，本研究首先探討有關金融危機前後投資者之背景變數，對理財風險認知，以及金融危機前後和理財風險認知對金融理財顧問特質偏好之影響，最後依據研究結果提出建議供銀行業者參考。本研究採用問卷調查法蒐集原始資料，以驗證相關的研究問題和假設。研究結果如下： ㄧ、在金融危機前後投資人的理財風險認知，在與理財顧問的關係上有顯著差異。金融危機前投資人與理財顧問的關係似乎較為緊密，也相對信任理財顧問。而金融危機後投資人並不認為理財顧問很會資產配置、也不覺得理財顧問值得信賴。 二、為了進一步探討金融危機前後投資人理財風險認知的不同是否影響對理財顧問特質偏好，本研究以邏輯斯迴歸模型進行分析。邏吉斯迴歸分析之實證發現，金融危機前客戶的理財風險認知與金融危機後客戶的理財風險認知呈現明顯差異。金融危機前投資人與理財顧問的關係似乎較為緊密，也相對信任理財顧問。而金融危機後投資人並不認為理財顧問很會資產配置、也不覺得理財顧問值得信賴。

本篇論文主要是想探討在2008年全球金融危機發生後，美國與亞洲國家股票市場之間的相關性是否發生明顯的改變。藉由2005年至2012年美國、新加坡、台灣、日本和泰國的股票市場資料，來觀察各國股票市場的相關性是否產生不對稱的現象，首先檢定美國對其他四個國家有無產生蔓延效果，並藉由不同期間的資料來檢定蔓延效果以看出各國之間是否在極端的情況下產生尾端相關性，最後，再使用不同的關聯結構函數配適出最適合資料的模型。 / The main idea of this paper is to show whether or not that stock market between U.S and Asian country has been obviously changed after 2008 financial crisis. For the sake of observing if there is or not occurred inconsistence phenomenon in each country’s stock market, we use the information from U.S、Singapore、Taiwan、Japan and Thailand since 2005 to 2012. First, look in that if U.S has contagion affects to other four countries and, checkup the contagion effects through the information from different period to find the tail dependence in extreme situation. Finally, to dispose a model which is the most suitable for the information by using different Copula functions.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第22217号 / 経博第605号 / 新制||経||292(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 砂川 伸幸, 教授 岩本 武和, 教授 澤邉 紀生 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM