This thesis introduces various approaches to natural catastrophe risk assessment in (re)insurance environment. Most emphasis and further elaboration is put on probabilistic models in comparison to the standard model as proposed by Solvency II. The outcomes of natural catastrophe modeling play an important role in the design of proper actuarial models related to catastrophe risk. More specifically it is shown that they can be entirely understood in a wider actuarial context, namely risk theory. Within the Solvency II framework, probabilistic model outcomes are translated by means of the proposed decomposition methodology putting them into a similar language of the standard formula in order to create the ability to compare different results implied by either probabilistic model or standard formula. This enables both comparison of the implied dependence structure of probabilistic model to standardized correlations assumed in Solvency II, and scenario year loss factors of Solvency II to implied damage factors of probabilistic models in defined cresta zones. The introduced decomposition methodology is illustrated by flood and windstorm model outcomes calculated on exposure data of Czech insurance companies and compared to the respective standard formula parameters and outcomes. Finally, other applications of the proposed decomposition methodology are introduced, such as measurement of diversification effect or blending of different results calculated by different models or even approaches to natural catastrophe risk assessment.

Der Dauerregen Anfang August in Ostsachsen ließ uns in Zittau unmutig zum grauen Himmel blicken. Am 7. August, einem Samstag, spitzte sich innerhalb kürzester Zeit alles dramatisch zu. Regenmengen von 160 l/m2 ließen die Neiße und ihren kleinen Nebenfluss Mandau bis zu ihren Dammkronen ansteigen. Die Hochschulbibliothek Zittau/Görlitz war im Jahre 2006 am Standort Zittau in einen Neubau nahe der Mandau eingezogen. Die Haupträume befinden sich im Erdgeschoss und in der ersten Etage, das Magazin wurde jedoch im Kellergeschoss untergebracht. Das Bibliotheksteam wies während der Bauphase nachdrücklich auf mögliche Hochwassergefahren für das Magazin hin. Die Bedenken wurden mit der Begründung abgewiesen, dass sie nur bei einem „Jahrhunderthochwasser“ berechtigt seien. Dieses „Jahrhundert“ war am 7. August 2010 um 18.30 Uhr abgelaufen.

This dissertation follows the topic of media and visual communication with relations to art. The theoretical part explains the usage and influence of such medias in the past and present, the communication between people and their visual statements, their psychological effects in connection to the manipulation of the picture. The practial part on the other hand, further explains the precise catastrophical events in the news and their overall effect in connection to personal explenations of said catastrophy. The last, Didaktical part, goes into detail on the transformation of catastrophies and possibility of applicating the medial education into the general creative uprbringing. Key Words Media, communcation, visual statements, manipulation of picture, catastrophy, medial education Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)

Human perspectivity, furthermore progress in all it's categories (for example technical, social or ethical progress) and finally the decline of a culture, are the main emphasizes of this thesis. It will address the issues of what human perspectivity is about and how it behaves towards progress and a cultural-socially overall structure. In historical context, the evolution of progress is set in relation to the evolution of human perspectivity. After the explaining of these two components and the connection between them, lastly, using a concrete example with the perished Easter Island in the southern pacific, it will be shown, how and why civilizations go through certain stages like early culture, high culture and late culture. So the point of this thesis is, to show, how and why human civilizations come to an end and what we should learn from them. Aside from other factors (for example military conflicts with enemies from the outside, which can lead also to a disaster of a culture), in this thesis the focus is on a cultural-ecological research of a self-inflicted catastrophe. The thesis is completed with a proposed solution for the above mentioned problems to improve the relationship between man and his environment, especially the animal. Keywords: human perspectivity, ecological catastrophe,...

The research attempts to resolve which method of estimation is the most consistent for the parameters of the earthquake model, and how these different methods of estimation, as well as other changes, in the earthquake model parameters affect the damage estimates for a specific area. The research also investigates different methods of parameter estimation in the context of the log-linear relationship characterised by the Gutenberg-Richter relation. Traditional methods are compared to those methods that take uncertainty in the underlying data into account. Alternative methods based on Bayesian statistics are investigated briefly. The efficiency of the feasible methods is investigated by comparing the results for a large number of synthetic earthquake catalogues for which the parameters are known and errors have been incorporated into each observation. In the second part of the study, the effects of changes in key parameters of the earthquake model on damage estimates are investigated. This includes an investigation of the different methods of estimation and their effect on the damage estimates. It is found that parameter estimates are affected by observation errors. If errors are not included in the method of estimation, the estimate is subject to bias. The nature of the errors determines the level of bias. It is concluded that uncertainty in the data used in earthquake parameter estimates is largely a function of the quality of the data that is available. The inaccuracy of parameter estimates depends on the nature of the errors that are present in the data. In turn, the nature of the errors in an earthquake catalogue depends on the method of compilation of the catalogue and can vary from being negligible, for single source catalogues for an area with a sophisticated seismograph network, to fairly impactful, for historical earthquake catalogues that predate seismograph networks. Probabilistic seismic risk assessment is used as a catastrophe modelling tool to circumvent the problem of scarce loss data in areas of low seismicity and is applied in this study for the greater Cape Town region in South Africa. The results of the risk assessment demonstrate that seemingly small changes in underlying earthquake parameters as a result of the incorporation of errors can lead to significant changes in loss estimates for buildings in an area of low seismicity. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / Insurance and Actuarial Science / MSc / Unrestricted

Du 1er au 5 décembre 1930, un brouillard épais se répand dans la vallée de la Meuse. Ils sont nombreux à y laisser leur vie. Un an plus tard, des experts rendent leurs conclusions : le charbon et les composés soufrés de sa combustion sont mis en cause. Mais comment du « charbon » participe à la production de brouillards et rejoint, jusqu’à tuer, les poumons de ceux qui se sont retrouvés contraints de le respirer ? Ces liens « charbon - brouillards toxiques - poumons » n’ont rien d’évident. Ce travail tente de reconstituer les conditions historiques de leurs constructions. En considérant cette catastrophe dans le temps long de sa production ; en suivant la piste des matières de sa constitution et des assemblages technico-sociaux nécessaires à leur transformation ; en étudiant le rôle et les effets des pratiques savantes, il permet de comprendre la transformation conjointe, par l’industrialisation, des corps et des environnements et la production de nouveaux phénomènes météorologiques. / From the 1st to the 5th December 1930, a thick fog spread in the Meuse valley. Many losing their lives. One year later, experts came to conclusions: coal and sulphuric compound of it combustion were implicated. But how does "coal" come to participate in the production of fogs and to befoul, fatally, the lungs of those forced to inhale it ? The « coal - toxic fog - lungs » links is not obvious. This study aims to reconstitute the historic conditions of their construction. By considering this disaster over the period necessary for its production - as a process and not as an hiatus - ; by following the trail of the materials of its constitution - their progress and the technical, social, political and discursive assemblies - necessary for their transformation; by studying the role and the effects of the scientific practices, this work allows an understanding of the joint transformation, by the industrialization, of bodies and environments and the production of new meteorological phenomena.

[pt] Considerando as ameaças existenciais à humanidade no mundo contemporâneo, sobretudo as armas nucleares e as mudanças climáticas de origens antrópicas, a presente dissertação objetiva analisar as formas pelas quais estas são enunciadas nas declarações do Relógio do Juízo Final [Doomsday Clock] escritas pelo Boletim dos Cientistas Atômicos [Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists], no período entre 1947 e 2020. Para tanto, será analisada a rede conceitual utilizada pelo Boletim e como esta é indicativa de uma experiência do tempo. Acredita-se que, com isso, será possível identificar o protagonismo do conceito de catástrofe em relação a outros termos chaves para se compreender a temporalidade histórica contemporânea. / [en] Considering the existential threats to humanity in the contemporary world, especially nuclear weapons and anthropic climate change, this dissertation aims to analyze the ways in which these are enunciated in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Doomsday Clock, in the period between 1947 and 2020. In order to do so, the conceptual web used by the Bulletin will be analyzed as na experience of time. I believe that it will be possible to identify the protagonism of the concept of catastrophe in comparison with other key terms to understand the contemporary historical temporality.

[pt] Catástrofe e continuidade de ser: o trabalho psíquico da criança na pandemia de Covid-19. Este trabalho consiste numa pesquisa teórico-clínica acerca dos atravessamentos e produções específicas da clínica psicanalítica online com crianças durante a pandemia de Covid-19. Na primeira parte, estabelecemos o entendimento do contexto pandêmico a partir do conceito de catástrofe de Sandor Ferenczi, marcando distinções e relações com o traumático, de modo a considerar as mobilizações psíquicas do par analítico e as consequentes necessidades de elasticidade da técnica e de adaptação do setting por meio de vinheta. Em seguida, apresentamos o conceito de privação em Winnicott como fundamento de uma experiência psíquica de luto para a criança em confinamento, por vezes vivenciada de forma ambígua e imprecisa, e traçamos articulações com o fenômeno da evacuação de crianças de zonas urbanas no Reino Unido durante a Segunda Guerra para situar um referencial sobre possíveis efeitos psíquicos de grandes rupturas conjunturais no processo de constituição subjetiva. Relacionamos tais questões com a processualidade da constituição psíquica pela ótica de Ferenczi no tocante à gradual introjeção da realidade e ao papel do ambiente no acolhimento do sofrimento da criança. Por fim, exploramos através de vinhetas clínicas a especificidade do atendimento remoto na sua dimensão de setting audiovisual a partir do conceito de câmera subjetiva, relacionando-o com a teoria do brincar de Winnicott, mormente o conceito de uso do objeto, para refletir sobre o processo de construção de uma possibilidade de relação sofisticada com o mundo externo mesmo em circunstâncias de profundas restrições. / [en] The present research consists in an exploration of the challenges and specific productions of the psychoanalytical clinic with children during the Covid-19 pandemic. First, we establish the concept of catastrophe according to Sandor Ferenczi as a means to understand the psychological impacts on the analytic pair and the necessary adaptations of technique. Then, we present the notion of deprivation from Donald Winnicott to better explore the psychological experience of the child in confinement, articulating such experience with the evacuation of children in the United Kingdom during the Second World War. We articulate these issues to the process of subjective constitution through Ferenczi’s concepts of gradual introjection of the reality and the role of the environment in the psychological suffering of children. Lastly, we present clinical excerpts to discuss the specificities of the online setting, whilst articulating the findings with the concept of subjective camera and Winnicott’s theory of play.

No description available.

La sénescence réplicative est le phénomène associé à un arrêt de croissance permanent causé par le raccourcissement progressif des télomères à chaque division. Lorsqu’ils atteignent une longueur critique, les télomères perdent leur structure terminale protectrice en t-loop, ce qui révèle l’extrémité du chromosome et déclenche une Réponse aux dommages à l’ADN (RDA) p53-dépendante. Le nombre de télomères ouverts nécessaire à la mise en place de la sénescence n’est pas connu, mais plusieurs évidences suggèrent que la cellule pourrait en tolérer un certain nombre avant de s’arrêter définitivement. Dans ce projet, nous utilisons un dominant négatif de Tin2 (Tin2DN), un membre du complexe nucléo-protéique nommé le télosome qui stabilise la t-loop, pour démontrer que la dysfonction chromatinienne télomérique seule ne suffit pas à déclencher un arrêt de croissance permanent. Lorsqu’il est exprimé, Tin2DN induit la formation de foyers de dommages de 53BP1, la RDA ainsi qu’un arrêt de croissance transitoire. De façon surprenante, nous observons que les cellules qui ont subi ce premier arrêt de croissance ré-entrent dans le cycle cellulaire et se divisent, et ce malgré la présence de foci télomériques. Cette réentrée cause l’apparition de cassures secondaires ainsi qu’une accumulation d’instabilités génomiques, telles que des ponts chromosomiques ou des micro-noyaux. Cet échappement des points de blocages du cycle cellulaire pourrait être expliqué par notre observation que la dysfonction télomérique induite par Tin2DN n’active que très faiblement p53 et p21, et pratiquement pas la kinase chkChk2. Néanmoins, en inhibant directement l’activité de p53, nous n’observons plus aucun arrêt de croissance mais une accumulation de foci et d’instabilités génomiques, avec une forte occurrence de catastrophes mitotiques. L’ensemble de ces résultats propose un nouveau modèle d’entrée en sénescence réplicative : l’ouverture des télomères induits une faible RDA menant à un premier arrêt de prolifération transitoire p53-dépendant. Les cellules échappent à cet arrêt et se divisent, mais l’ouverture des télomères ayant causé des fusions chromosomiques, la division crée alors de nouvelles cassures doubles brins dans le génome qui déclencheront une forte RDA et un nouvel arrêt de croissance permanent, la sénescence réplicative. / Replicative senescence is the physiological permanent growth arrest caused by telomeres shortening, at each round of replication. Once they have reach a critical length, the telomeres lose their t-loop structure, revealing the chromosome extremity that triggers a p53-dependant DNA damage response (DDR) and leads to proliferation arrest. The number of shortened telomeres that are necessary to onset senescence is not known, but accumulating evidences suggest that the cell is able to tolerate a certain level of telomere uncapping before stopping its divisions. Here, we used an inducible dominant negative form of Tin2 (Tin2DN), a member of the shelterin complex that stabilizes the t-loop, to show that telomeres uncapping alone is not sufficient to induce a stable growth arrest. When expressed, Tin2DN leads to the openingverture of the t-loop, creating a DDR with the formation of 53BP1 DNA damage foci (DDF) and a transient growth arrest. Indeed, we observed that the cells were re-entering the cell cycle and dividing, despite their uncapped DDF harbouring telomeres. As telomere uncapping creates chromosome fusions, such division leads to the apparition of secondary DNA breaks, with an accumulation of genomic instabilities, such as chromosomes bridges or micronuclei. We observed that Tin2 DN-induced telomere uncapping leads to a very weak activation of p53 and p21, with almost no phosphorylation of chkChk2. Nevertheless, when we infected our cells with a shp53, the primary growth arrest did not occur, leading to an amplification of the damages, with strong signs of instability and mitotic catastrophe. Altogether, these results propose a new model for replicative senescence: telomere uncapping induces a weak DDR that leads to a transitory growth arrest. The cells divide with fused chromosomes, creating new randomly distributed double strand breaks that trigger a stronger DDR and a permanent growth arrest. In that model, replicative senescence is not directly induced by telomere uncapping, but by an amplification of DNA damages through mitotic catastrophe.