Här presenteras ett ramverk för beslutsanalytisk metod baserad på principen om maximering av den förväntade nyttan gällande värdering av olika alternativ för åldersbedömning av ensamkommande inom asylprocessen. Med detta ramverk som utgångspunkt görs en jämförelse mellan ett antal metoder (mognad hos visdomstand, knäled och handled samt Rättsmedicinalverkets metod baserad på både visdomstand och knäled) för medicinsk åldersbedömning. Dessa metoder jämförs vidare med tre referensalternativ (i) lita på den ensamkommandes åldersuppgifter vilket i praktiken innebär att bedöma alla som barn, (ii) bedöma alla ensamkommande som vuxna och (iii) det absurda alternativet att singla slant för att avgöra vem som är barn eller vuxen. Det som behövs för beslutsanalysen är antaganden och/eller skattningar på åldersfördelningen av ensamkommande som åldersbedöms samt skattning för de olika metoderna på hur stor sannolikheten är att en person bedöms som vuxen givet den faktiska åldern. Vidare krävs en kvantifiering av nyttan för en felklassificering av en vuxen, då en felklassificering av ett barn antas ge lägst nytta och en korrekt klassificering antas ge högst nytta. Åldersfördelningen av ensamkommande som åldersbedöms antas här bestå av en kombination av två likformiga och kontinuerliga fördelningar, där intervallen är 15-18 år (barn) respektive 18-21 år (vuxna). Två nyttomodeller undersöks, en diskret som endast tar hänsyn till om individen är barn eller vuxen samt en kontinuerlig linjär nyttomodell som tar hänsyn till åldersskillnaden från 18-årsgränsen vid en felklassificering. De genomförda analyserna demonstrerar hur ramverket kan användas i praktiken. Givet de antaganden som gjorts är slutsatsen att det alternativ som ger högst förväntad nytta i stor utsträckning beror på prevalensen (andelen vuxna) tillsammans med hur nyttan för en felklassificerad vuxen värderas. Oavsett värdering, vid prevalens nära 0 bör alla bedömas som barn, för att när prevalensen ökar ersättas ersättas av en metod som i stor utsträckning klassificerar barn korrekt, när prevalensen ökar ytterligare ersättas av en metod som i större utsträckning klassificerar vuxna korrekt och slutligen när prevalensen är nära 1 bör alla bedömas som vuxna. / A framework for a decision analysis method that is based on the principle of maximization of the expected utility regarding alternatives of age assessment for unaccompanied asylum seekers is here presented. Using the framework, different methods (dental, knee joint, hand wrist and the method used by The National Board of Forensic Medicine (RMV) that combines the methods for dental och knee joint) for medical age assessment are compared. These methods are further compared with three benchmark alternatives, (i) to trust the age given by the unaccompanied asylum seeker which results that all are considered to be children, (ii) to consider all the unaccompanied asylum seekers as adults and (iii) the absurd alternative to flip a coin to decide who is a child or an adult. For the decision analysis, assumptions and/or estimates for the age distribution of the unaccompanied refugees are needed and estimates for the different methods regarding how probably it is to be considered an adult given the actual age. The outcome of a child that is incorrectly classified is assumed to give the lowest utility and a correct classification (both children and adult) is assumed to give the highest utility. The utility of the outcome of an adult that is incorrectly classified as a child needs to be quantified. The age distribution of unaccompanied refugee, considered for age assessment is here assumed to be a combination of two continuous uniform distributions, with the interval 15-18 years (child) and 18-21 years (adult). Two utility models are examined, a discrete model that only consider if the individual is a child or an adult and a continuously linear utility model that consider the age difference from 18 years given an incorrect classification. The analyzes carried out demonstrates how the framework can be used in practice. Given the assumptions that are made the conclusion is that the alternative that gives the highest expected utility depends on the prevalence (proportion of adults) together with the valuation of the utility for an incorrect classified adult. Regardless of the valuation, when the prevalence is close to 0 all should be considered to be children, when the prevalence increases should be replaced with a method that largely classifies children correct when the prevalence is further increased should be replaced with a method that largely classifies adults correct and finally, when the prevalence is close to 1 all should be considered as adults.

La gestion de la chaîne logistique a gagné en maturité depuis l’extension de son champ d’application qui portait sur des problématiques opérationnelles et économiques s’est élargi à des questions environnementales et sociales auxquelles sont confrontées les organisations industrielles actuelles. L’addition du terme «vert» aux activités de la chaîne logistique vise à intégrer une conscience écologique dans tous les processus de la chaîne d'approvisionnement. Le but de ce travail est de développer un cadre méthodologique pour traiter la gestion de la chaîne logistique verte (GrSCM) basée sur une approche d'optimisation multi-objectif, en se focalisant sur la conception, la planification et les opérations de la chaîne agroalimentaire, à travers la mise en oeuvre des principes de gestion et de logistique de la chaîne d'approvisionnement verte. L'étude de cas retenu est la filière du jus d'orange. L'objectif du travail consiste en la minimisation de l'impact environnemental et la maximisation de la rentabilité économique pour des catégories de produits sélectionnés. Ce travail se concentre sur l'application de la GrSCM à deux questions stratégiques fondamentales visant les chaînes d'approvisionnement agroalimentaire. La première est liée au problème de la sélection des fournisseurs en produits « verts » (GSS) pour les systèmes de production agricole et à leur intégration dans le réseau globalisé de la chaîne d'approvisionnement. Le second se concentre sur la conception globale du réseau de la chaîne logistique verte (GSCND). Ces deux sujets complémentaires sont finalement intégrés afin d'évaluer et exploiter les caractéristiques des chaînes d'approvisionnement agro-alimentaire en vue du développement d’un éco-label. La méthodologie est basée sur le couplage entre analyse du cycle de vie (ACV), optimisation multi-objectifs par algorithmes génétiques et technique d’aide à la décision multicritère (de type TOPSIS). L’approche est illustrée et validée par le développement et l'analyse d'une étude de cas de la chaîne logistique de jus d'orange, modélisée comme une chaîne logistique verte (GrSC) à trois échelons composés de la production d’oranges, de leur transformation en jus, puis de leur distribution, chaque échelon étant modélisé de façon plus fine en sous-composants. D’un point de vue méthodologique, le travail a démontré l’intérêt du cadre de modélisation et d’optimisation de GrSC dans le contexte des chaînes d'approvisionnement, notamment pour le développement d’un éco-label dans le domaine de l’agro-alimentaire. Il peut aider les décideurs pour gérer la complexité inhérente aux décisions de conception de la chaîne d'approvisionnement agroalimentaire, induite par la nature multi-objectifs multi-acteurs multi-périodes du problème, empêchant ainsi une prise de décision empirique et segmentée. D’un point de vue expérimental, sous les hypothèses utilisées dans l'étude de cas, les résultats du travail soulignent que si l’on restreint l’éco-label "bio" à l'aspect agricole, seule une faible, voire aucune amélioration sur la performance environnementale de la chaîne d'approvisionnement n’est atteinte. La prise en compte des critères environnementaux pertinents sur l’ensemble du cycle de vie s’avère être une meilleure option pour les stratégies publiques et privées afin de tendre vers des chaînes agro-alimentaires plus durables. / Supply chain and operations management has matured from a field that addressed only operational and economic concerns to one that comprehensively considers the broader environmental and social issues that face industrial organizations of today. Adding the term “green” to supply chain activities seeks to incorporate environmentally conscious thinking in all processes in the supply chain. The aim of this work is to develop a Green Supply Chain (GrSC) framework based on a multi-objective optimization approach, with specific emphasis on agrofood supply chain design, planning and operations through the implementation of appropriate green supply chain management and logistics principles. The case study is the orange juice cluster. The research objective is the minimization of the environmental burden and the maximization of economic profitability of the selected product categories. This work focuses on the application of GrSCM to two fundamental strategic issues targeting agro food supply chains. The former is related to the Green Supplier Selection (GSS) problem devoted to the farming production systems and the way they are integrated into the global supply chain network. The latter focuses on the global Green Supply Chain Network Design (GSCND) as a whole. These two complementary and ultimately integrated strategic topics are framed in order to evaluate and exploit the unique characteristics of agro food supply chains in relation to eco-labeling. The methodology is based on the use of Life Cycle Assessment, Multi-objective Optimization via Genetic Algorithms and Multiple-criteria Decision Making tools (TOPSIS type). The approach is illustrated and validated through the development and analysis of an Orange Juice Supply Chain case study modelled as a three echelon GrSC composed of the supplier, manufacturing and market levels that in turn are decomposed into more detailed subcomponents. Methodologically, the work has shown the development of the modelling and optimization GrSCM framework is useful in the context of eco-labeled agro food supply chain and feasible in particular for the orange juice cluster. The proposed framework can help decision makers handle the complexity that characterizes agro food supply chain design decision and that is brought on by the multi-objective and multi-period nature of the problem as well as by the multiple stakeholders, thus preventing to make the decision in a segmented empirical manner. Experimentally, under the assumptions used in the case study, the work highlights that by focusing only on the “organic” eco-label to improve the agricultural aspect, low to no improvement on overall supply chain environmental performance is reached in relative terms. In contrast, the environmental criteria resulting from a full lifecycle approach is a better option for future public and private policies to reach more sustainable agro food supply chains.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:53:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TOSO_Milton_2014.pdf: 4696426 bytes, checksum: eb35afc135023b0b234ffd6a28263264 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-03-20 / The main purpose of this dissertation is to propose a methodology framework using multicriteria decision-making method, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), to define the configuration of logistics operations at the distribution centers in the Brazilian retail market. This framework is based on an approach in which the choice of operational alternatives used in the internal activities of a distribution center (receiving, storage, picking and shipping) depend on the distribution strategy as well as the attributes and requirements of the business environment of the company. In order to develop this work, a bibliographic research has been performed in the following fields: logistics and distribution strategy, functions, activities and management of distribution centers and decision-making. It has been carried out interviews in the research field with the high management representatives from large logistics providers with the aim of determining which business requirements might be considered in the approach. The interviews have been also important to determine the preferences and weights to the attributes used for decision-making. The proposed framework has been also used in a case study in order to validate the attributes and has served too as a basis to compare the preferences of the managers of the logistic providers and of the manager of the studied company, regarding the configuration of the logistic operations. This framework has been validated, the preferences among decision makers have been similar, except at the weight between the attributes of operational and investment costs. In general, this framework has validated the results and has proved to be a useful tool to support decision-making process in a real situation and also has generated scenarios and sensitivity analysis to the decision maker. / O objetivo geral desta dissertação é propor uma estrutura metodológica utilizando um método de tomada de decisão multicritério, o Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a fim de configurar a operação logística em centros de distribuição que atende o mercado varejista brasileiro. Esta estrutura está baseada em uma abordagem na qual a escolha das alternativas operacionais utilizadas nas atividades internas de um centro de distribuição (recebimento, armazenagem, separação e expedição) depende da estratégia de distribuição, bem como dos atributos e requerimentos de negócio do ambiente da empresa. Para o desenvolvimento deste trabalho foi realizada uma pesquisa bibliográfica relacionada à estratégia de distribuição, funções, atividades e gerenciamento de centros de distribuição, e, à abordagem de tomada de decisão. Na pesquisa de campo foram realizadas entrevistas com representantes da alta gerência de grandes operadores logísticos com a finalidade de determinar quais os requerimentos de negócio que deveriam ser considerados na configuração. As entrevistas também foram importantes para determinar as preferências e os pesos dos atributos utilizados para a tomada de decisão. A proposta de configuração foi ainda utilizada em um estudo de caso como meio de validação dos atributos e serviu, também, de base de comparação entre as preferências dos gestores de operadores logísticos e do gestor da empresa estudada, no tocante à configuração das operações logísticas. A aplicação da proposta de configuração foi validada e as preferências entre todos os decisores foram parecidas, exceto no peso entre os atributos de custo operacional e investimento. No geral, a proposta de configuração validou os resultados e se mostrou útil como uma ferramenta de suporte na tomada de decisão em uma situação real, além de permitir a geração de cenários e análises de sensibilidade para o tomador de decisão.

Submitted by Fabio Sobreira Campos da Costa (fabio.sobreira@ufpe.br) on 2016-08-19T12:20:36Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) TESE N 127 - PROTEN DEN UFPE - VERONICA AZEVEDO.pdf: 11747677 bytes, checksum: a2779760a6f763a69e1f529900e5dfdf (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-19T12:20:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) TESE N 127 - PROTEN DEN UFPE - VERONICA AZEVEDO.pdf: 11747677 bytes, checksum: a2779760a6f763a69e1f529900e5dfdf (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-01-29 / CAPEs / Notadamente nos últimos anos, a geração de eletricidade a partir de fontes renováveis de energia tem mostrado contínuo aumento que está relacionado, sobretudo, às preocupações com as variações climáticas, à dependência dos combustíveis fósseis e à necessidade de suprir a geração de energia elétrica com recursos que produzam menos impactos ao meio ambiente. A capacidade instalada da energia renovável no mundo, que foi de 800GW em 2004, alcançou 1.712GW em 2014 e a participação na matriz energética global também aumentou, atingindo o percentual de 22,8% em 2014. O Brasil possui uma matriz energética predominantemente renovável. Somente em 2014, aproximadamente 74,6% da eletricidade gerada procedeu das fontes renováveis de energia. O percentual restante (25,4%) proveio dos combustíveis fósseis e das fontes nucleares. Mas, muito embora o País possua uma matriz energética tipicamente renovável, nota-se que o principal sistema de geração é o aproveitamento hidráulico, que é bem vulnerável às variações climáticas globais e pode apresentar, em função disso, redução de sua capacidade instalada em longo prazo. Visando contribuir para a diversificação da matriz energética brasileira, esta pesquisa apresenta dois métodos distintos e macroespaciais para auxiliar a seleção de áreas potenciais para a inserção de usinas solares termoelétricas: o Método baseado no Processo Analítico Hierárquico, que trata o problema da localização sob uma organização hierárquica de critérios, como pressupõe os axiomas do Método AHP; e o Método do Custo de Produção de Eletricidade, que define os locais aptos em função do custo nivelado da eletricidade (LCOE – Levelised Cost of Electricity). Ambas as metodologias foram aplicadas para Pernambuco, localizado na região Nordeste do Brasil, e considerou a implantação de usinas de coletores parabólicos de 80MWe, tipo SEGS, operando somente em modo solar, sem armazenadores térmicos. Com base nas análises realizadas, confirmou-se que Pernambuco apresenta grande potencial para a implantação de usinas solares, principalmente no Sertão Pernambucano, onde foram encontrados os ambientes mais favoráveis à instalação. Na aplicação do Método AHP, por exemplo, o Sertão apresentou alto potencial de instalação em todos os cenários avaliados, inclusive no cenário Ponto de Partida, onde os pesos não foram considerados. No Método do Custo de Produção de Eletricidade, o Sertão também mostrou alto potencial de instalação uma vez que os custos de geração de energia elétrica encontrados foram os menores do estado (da ordem de R$ 337,16/MWh). Este custo é elevado quando comparado com o preço da eletricidade gerada pela fonte hidráulica no país (R$ 182,09/MWh), por exemplo, mas estão em conformidade quanto ao esperado para sua inserção no mercado brasileiro. De modo geral, as abordagens apresentadas se mostraram muito consistentes e revelaram um potencial bastante promissor para o desenvolvimento da tecnologia em Pernambuco. Este potencial deverá ser avaliado detalhadamente e incluir a medição local da radiação solar por pelo menos cinco anos. / Notably in recent years, the generation of electricity using energy from renewable resources has presented continuous increase, which is due to, especially, the concerns about climate changes, the dependency in fossil fuel and the necessity of production of electric energy with resources to decrease the negative impacts in the environmental. The global renewable power generation capacity, which presented 800GW on the beginning of 2004, reaching an estimated 1,712GW at year’s end 2014, and the renewable electricity global production in 2014 presented 22.8%. Brazil has a mainly renewable energy matrix. In 2014, 74.6% of the electricity produced came from renewable sources of energy. The remaining percentage comes from fossil fuels and nuclear sources (25.4%). Although it shows a remarkably renewable character, it is notable that the main source of generation of electricity is the water source, which is susceptible the climate changes, and should present the reduction in your capacity installed in a long term. As a way of contributing to diversify the energy matrix Brazilian, this work presents two different methodologies macro spatial for the selection of the best sites for insertion of solar thermal power plants: the methodologies based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) where the selection the best site was based on means of the hierarchical organization of criteria according to axioms of the AHP method; and the method based on cost of electricity generation where the best site were selected according to Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE). Both studies were made in Pernambuco, located in Northeastern Region of Brazil and considered the implementation of a parabolic trough solar power plant, of 80MWe, operating exclusively in solar mode, without thermal stores. The analyzes performed confirmed that the Pernambuco presents great potential for the installation of solar thermal power plants, especially, in the Sertão Pernambucano where the best sites were located. In the methodologies AHP, for example, this region presented great potential for the installation in all scenarios analyzed, including the Ponto de Partida scenarios where weights are not used. In the method based on cost of electricity, the Sertão presented great potential also. In this region it is possible to find electric energy generation costs by MWh of the order of R$ 337.16. This costs are still high when comparing the cost of generation of the hydraulic source (R$ 182.09/MWh) in Brazil, although, they comply as to expected for its insertion in the Brazilian Market. The methodologies used demonstrated very consistent and identified a promising potential for solar thermal power generation in Pernambuco. This potential should be analyzed in details and include the local measurement of the incident direct normal solar irradiation for at least five years.

Submitted by Caroline Falcao (caroline.rfalcao@ufpe.br) on 2017-06-01T18:14:47Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 811 bytes, checksum: e39d27027a6cc9cb039ad269a5db8e34 (MD5) Fernando TESE.pdf: 6232408 bytes, checksum: 2758b5fef89a3422ca1f59c9255a8e14 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-01T18:14:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 811 bytes, checksum: e39d27027a6cc9cb039ad269a5db8e34 (MD5) Fernando TESE.pdf: 6232408 bytes, checksum: 2758b5fef89a3422ca1f59c9255a8e14 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-05-21 / A complexidade de um processo licitatório, o princípio da isonomia e a tentativa de obter a proposta mais vantajosa têm induzido a administração pública a adotar uma abordagem de seleção de fornecedores, onde o preço é o único aspecto considerado. Com o objetivo de apoiar este processo, esta tese propõe um modelo de seleção de fornecedores, baseado na legislação brasileira de licitação, que contempla uma etapa de negociação sobre múltiplos aspectos. O modelo estrutura o processo de compras de bens na administração pública em um fluxo de atividades: (i) captação das propostas; (ii) etapa de negociação; e (iii) homologação e adjudicação das propostas. A etapa de negociação consiste de um modelo de apoio à negociação multibilateral e multiaspecto, cuja estratégia adotada garanta ganhos mútuos máximos para as partes envolvidas. O modelo proposto é ilustrado por meio de um processo licitatório já finalizado. Através desta ilustração é possível verificar que o modelo agrega maior dinâmica a lei de licitações, pois as ofertas dos fornecedores são intervalos de valores em diferentes aspectos ao invés de uma oferta fixa e única apenas no aspecto preço. Verificou-se também que a proposta pode ser utilizada para apoiar processos de seleção de fornecedores de empresas do setor privado. / The complexity of bidding process, the equality principle and the attempt to obtain the most advantageous bid have led the government to adopt a selection supplier approach, in which the price is the only issue considered. In order to support this process, this thesis proposes a supplier selection model based on the Brazilian bidding law, which includes a negotiation stage on multiple issues. The model organizes the public bidding process in a flow of activities: (i) bids reception; (ii) negotiation stage; and (iii) approval and award of bids. The negotiation stage is developed as a model to support multi-bilateral and multi-issue negotiations, whose adopted strategy ensures joint maximum gains for the parties involved. The proposed model is illustrated through its application for a bidding process already concluded. This illustration showed that the model aggregates more dynamic to the bidding law since the suppliers bids are ranges of values in different issues instead of a single bid in the price issue only. It was verified that the proposal can be used to support suppliers selection processes in private sector companies.

Orientador: Denis Jose Schiozer / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica e Instituto de Geociencias / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-15T12:53:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Hayashi_SuzanaHisakoDeguchi_M.pdf: 16467779 bytes, checksum: 4345ae4f5ff27ff7cee4722d4b305f55 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006 / Resumo: O risco é inerente às várias fases da vida de um campo de petróleo, devido às incertezas, geológicas, econômicas e tecnológicas que influenciam o valor de um projeto. A aquisição de informações e a adição de flexibilidade na implantação de um projeto são os principais processos que permitem a mitigação dos riscos associados. O conceito de Valor da Informação (VDI) permite medir quantitativamente os benefícios resultantes da aquisição adicional de dados, que permite definir o projeto de desenvolvimento com mais precisão, podendo trazer modificações significativas em relação à concepção inicial (projeto conceitual). O conceito de Valor de Flexibilização (VDF) permite medir os benefícios de adicionar flexibilidade, por exemplo, no cronograma de implantação de um projeto, com o objetivo de possibilitar um melhor gerenciamento de reservatórios frente aos possíveis cenários. Os conceitos de VDI e VDF são usados neste trabalho para determinar o valor de adquirir novas informações para o projeto, considerando um atraso no cronograma causado pela flexibilização do momento de definição e aprovação do projeto básico. Uma técnica baseada nos Modelos Geológicos Representativos (MOR} e nas árvores de decisão é aplicada no processo de análise de decisão. Os resultados deste trabalho mostram que a metodologia proposta neste trabalho é aplicável em modelos de grande porte. Outras conclusões são que a relevância da aquisição de informações aumenta em cenários de preço de óleo mais baixo e que é importante analisar a redução de risco como variável adicional ao retomo financeiro no processo de decisão como o analisado neste trabalho / Abstract: The risk is inherent to several phases of a petroleum field development due to geological, economic and technological uncertainties, which influence the value of a project. The acquisition, of additional information and flexibility in the implementation, of a project are the main processes, which permit risk mitigation. The concept of Value of Information (VoI) permits to measure quantitatively the benefits of the new information that yield more accuracy in the definition of the development project and it can bring important modifications in comparison with the initial conception of the project. The concept of Value of Flexibility (VoF) allows measuring the benefits of flexibility in the implementation of a project yielding better reservoir management. The concepts of VoI and VoF are used in this work to determine the value of new information in a project, considering a delay in the schedule caused by the flexibility in the moment of definition and approval of the final project. A decision tree technique, associated to Geological Representative Models (GRM), is applied in the process of the quantification of the value of information and flexibility. Based on the results of this work, it is possible to conclude that: the methodology is useful for large fields; the relevance of information acquisition increases in low prices scenarios and; if is important to analyze risk mitigation in addition to financial gain in decision making processes like the one studied in this work / Mestrado / Engenharia de Petroleo / Mestre em Ciências e Engenharia de Petróleo

Submitted by Marcia Silva (marcia@latec.uff.br) on 2016-01-26T17:57:48Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert Kleber da Silva Nunes.pdf: 4998399 bytes, checksum: a0bf11e64d5db173db697a764aae9f35 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-01-26T17:57:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert Kleber da Silva Nunes.pdf: 4998399 bytes, checksum: a0bf11e64d5db173db697a764aae9f35 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-09-23 / Os processos de análise de contas médicas, realizados pelas equipes de auditoria (médicos, enfermeiros e administrativos) de operadoras de planos de saúde são cada vez mais importantes, decorrente do crescimento do mercado e pela agilidade em que os processos são apresentados, em parte pela padronização realizada pela agência reguladora de saúde suplementar – ANS. A pesquisa teve por objetivo apresentar uma metodologia, baseada em análise multicritério, para aumentar ou manter um grau de assertividade equivalente ao processo manual de escolha de contas para auditoria realizado pelas equipes especializadas de auditores médicos, enfermeiros e administrativos das operadoras de planos de saúde e realizar um processo de verificação desse modelo. Para condução da pesquisa foi realizada uma revisão da literatura nas bases Engineering Village, ISI Web of Science, SciELO e SCOPUS; sobre a aplicação da análise multicritério aos processos de auditoria em operadoras de planos de saúde ou aplicações similares, aderentes ao objetivo geral ou específico desta pesquisa. Adotou-se como Método de Auxílio Multicritério à Decisão (AMD) o Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), que na pesquisa bibliográfica comprovou-se como sendo o método mais adotado para o tipo de problema proposto. A pesquisa limitou-se a apenas a um tipo de guia, entre as possíveis de apresentação pela rede credenciada, selecionada como sendo a mais relevante pelos auditores, e os atributos utilizados para o processo de decisão e definição da hierarquia. Todo o processo de coleta dessas preferências foi realizado através de formulários, adotando-se como meio de comunicação o e-mail; devido à distribuição geográfica dos envolvidos no processo. Para realização da coleta dos julgamentos, foi adotada a técnica do workshop. O modelo foi desenvolvido e aplicado a duas bases distintas, de duas operadoras de natureza diferentes; limitado um ano dos atendimentos em cada uma das bases. Devido ao grande volume de informações, adotou-se um banco de dados relacional para que a aplicação do método de decisão pudesse ser realizado. Ao final, pode-se comprovar que o resultado da adoção do modelo AHP, confrontado com as ações de auditoria realizadas pelos médicos, enfermeiros e administrativos das operadoras de planos de saúde gerou um grau satisfatório de assertividade, podendo portanto auxiliar no processo de seleção de contas para auditoria de uma operadora de plano de saúde. Porém foram observados alguns pontos de atenção, o primeiro refere-se diretamente ao modelo AHP, que possui uma limitação quanto ao número de variáveis possíveis em um mesmo nível da hierarquia, podendo gerar problemas na modelagem ou em sua compreensão pelos julgadores. O segundo, refere-se ao nível de dificuldade de tornar o modelo consistente, quando o mesmo aproxima-se do limite de variáveis em um mesmo nível da hierarquia modelada. Por fim, foi observado que o grau de assertividade entre as operadoras não foi equivalente. Os pontos apresentados não invalidam a possibilidade de generalização do modelo para outras aplicações similares em outras áreas de conhecimento. / The process of analysis of medical bills, carried out by audit teams (doctors, nurses and administrative staff) health plan operators are increasingly important due to the market growth and the speed at which the processes are presented in part by standardization performed by the regulatory agency of health insurance - ANS. The research aimed to present a methodology, based on multi-criteria analysis, to increase or maintain an equivalent level of assertiveness to the manual process of choosing accounts for audit carried out by specialized teams of medical auditors, nurses and administrative of health insurance providers and carry out a verification of this model process. To conduct the survey was conducted a literature review on the basis Engineering Village, ISI Web of Science, SciELO and SCOPUS; on the application of multi-criteria analysis to audit processes health plan operators or similar applications, adhering to the general or specific objective of this research. It was adopted Aid method multicriteria decision (AMD) the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which in literature was proven to be the most widely adopted method for the type of proposed problem. The research was limited to just one type of guide, among the possible presentation by the accredited network, selected as the most relevant by the auditors, and the attributes used for the decision making process and definition of the hierarchy. The whole process of collection of these preferences was conducted through forms, adopting as a communication medium the email; due to the geographical distribution of those involved in the process. To perform the collection of judgments, it was adopted workshop technique. The model was developed and applied to two different bases, two carriers of different nature; limited one year of attendance at each of the bases. Due to the large volume of information, it adopted a relational database so that the application of the decision method could be performed. At the end, it can be proved that the result of the adoption of the AHP model, confronted with audit actions performed by doctors, nurses and administrative of the health plan operators generated a satisfactory degree of assertiveness and can therefore assist in the selection process accounts to audit a health plan operator. Nevertheless were observed some points of attention, the first relates directly to the AHP model that has a limitation on the number of possible variables in the same level of the hierarchy, which may cause problems in modeling or in their understanding by the judges. The second one refers to the level of difficulty in making consistent model, even when the variable approaches the limit at the same level of the modeled hierarchy. Finally, it was observed that the degree of assertiveness between operators is not equivalent. The points presented do not invalidate the possibility of model generalization to other similar applications in other areas of knowledge.

Planning is of vital importance for the development urban areas to facilitate sustainable economic growth and social functions. The traditional, manual ways of planning that depend on biophysical data and use a hierarchical approach are no longer appropriate for site choice since information is rapidly updated today. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) has been used for about two decades with geographic information systems (GIS) to analyze spatial problems. GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) provides tools for assessing the inherent tradeoffs and mechanisms for incorporating and documenting the value judgments of interest groups and decision makers and is thus a more reasonable and scientific way for site selection to development. Guangzhou, the study area of this paper, is one of the fastest developing and largest cities located in Southern China. This research used the GIS-based MCDA approaches to find the appropriate sites for residential areas in Guangzhou. Satellite images, DEM and several thematic maps of Guangzhou were used in this research. Using different methods and technologies, the data were used to create constraint and factor maps for multi-criteria analysis. After building the MCA model, the weights for multi-criteria analysis were obtained through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) by comparing the importance of every two factors. Finally, a suitability map for housing development was generated. The result indicates that with the help of GIS and remote sensing technologies, the process of site selection and urban planning can be done in a more effective and scientific way. The limitation and future perspective of GIS based MCDA methods are discussed.

L'évaluation des bénéfices et des risques des médicaments joue un rôle central dans la protection de la santé publique. Cependant, et de l’avis général, il apparaît que cette évaluation nécessite d’être revisitée. En 2010, aucun examen n’avait encore été effectué pour déterminer si les méthodes disponibles pouvaient être appliquées à l’évaluation de la balance bénéfice-risque des médicaments dans le cadre réglementaire, et si oui à quel point elles seraient applicable. L’objectif de cette thèse a donc été d’identifier la ou les méthodes pouvant être théoriquement utilisées pour ce type d’évaluation, puis de les confronter à des cas concrets afin d’en déterminer leur applicabilité. Les résultats de l’évaluation des méthodes ont montrés que les méthodes les plus appropriées sont la méthode d’aide à la décision multicritère (MCDA) ainsi que ses variantes. Les résultats de l'application pratique de la méthode MCDA ont indiqué que cette méthode peut être utilisé dans les scénarios communs d'enregistrement en Europe. Cependant il convient de noter que cette méthode ne fournit ni une recette « prête à l'emploi » pour exécuter cette évaluation ni une réponse directe. / The benefit-risk evaluation of new medicines plays a central role in safeguarding public health. Nevertheless, it seems that the benefit-risk evaluation calls for further improvement. In 2010, no review had been performed of how available benefit-risk assessment methods could be applied for a regulatory benefit-risk assessment and how feasible that would be when facing real-life cases. The objective of this thesis has thus been to identify method(s) that could be theoretically used for such an assessment, and then to confront it/them to real-life cases, in order to determine their applicability. The results of the methods evaluation showed that the most suitable methods for a regulatory benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products are the MCDA method and the MCDA based methods. The results of the practical application of the MCDA indicated that the method could be used for medicinal products registered through a common registration scenario in Europe. However it should be noted that this method provides neither a “ready-made” recipe to perform an assessment nor a direct answer.

Pakistan has always had a history of severe energy shortfalls, which rose up to an alarming 33% in 2013. This situation was countered by investments in the energy sector through the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which were unfortunately largely based on brown fuels. Although beneficial in the short term, these investments do not bode well for the climate scenario of Pakistan, with various parts of the country already having experienced temperatures rise of 1-3°C. To ensure that the current situation doesn’t exacerbate and is tackled in a timely manner, this research aims to examine how the untapped potential of renewable energy in Pakistan can be better utilized by modelling the entire electrical grid system for multi-portfolio based sustainable electricity generation, in line with the sustainable development goals chalked out by Pakistan with the United Nations (UN). Delving further into the matter, a gap is observed that demands coalescence between sustainability and portfolio-based generation in the context of Pakistan, since the prevalent narrative is of Business As Usual (BAU). The research methodology implemented is a cross sectional case study employing qualitative and quantitative data collection methods and outcomes, in which the entire grid system of Pakistan is studied and sustainability metrics are defined; followed by a comprehensive use of Multi-Criteria Decision Methodology in decision making process. Portfolios defined are a combination of different generation technologies, each simulating a possible avenue of policy, and are then evaluated for a range of sustainability metrics to understand the tradeoffs involved to arrive at a set goal. The process decision framework developed shall enable the Pakistani energy sector in meeting the energy demands by providing the decision-makers with various routes to do so, while informing on the sustainability impact of their decisions.