Thesis (MA (Political Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The United States of America (USA) has a new president in the White House - a president whose rhetoric appears to distance himself from the policies of the previous administration. This also appears to hold true for his approach with regard to nuclear nonproliferation. The overarching research aim of this study is to explore whether the Obama administration’s policy with regard to nuclear non-proliferation will differ significantly from that of the Bush administration. The broader subject of nuclear non-proliferation will be subdivided into three themes, namely: disarmament, proliferation by non-nuclear states and nuclear terrorism. In order to sketch the international context within which the USA’s policy must be viewed, an overview of the nuclear non-proliferation regime is provided. This will be followed by an exploration of disarmament, proliferation by nonnuclear states (with Iran and North Korea as case studies) and nuclear terrorism. In each case, a comparison between the Bush administration and the Obama administration’s policies will be done. Finally, an analysis will be done of the main similarities and differences between the two administrations’ approaches, with a focus on the use of hard, soft and smart power. The study concludes that the primary difference between the Bush and Obama administration’s approaches is that Bush pursued only one policy option (hard power) at a time, while Obama intends to use many different policy options (smart power) at the same time, with a focus on increasing the use of soft power. This sort of pragmatism may just be what the USA needs right now in order to address the problem of nuclear proliferation. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Verenigte State van Amerika (VSA) het ‘n nuwe president in die Withuis – ‘n president wie se uitsprake hom van die beleide van die vorige administrasie blyk te distansieer. Dit wil ook voorkom asof dit van toepassing is op sy benadering tot kernwapen versperring. Die oorhoofse navorsingsdoelwit van hierdie studie is om te ondersoek of die Obama administrasie se beleid ten opsigte van kernwapen versperring aansienlik van die van die Bush administrasie gaan verskil. Die breër onderwerp van kernwapen versperring kan in drie temas opgedeel word, naamlik: ontwapening, proliferasie deur nie-kernwapenstate, en kernwapen terrorisme. Ten einde die internasionale konteks te skets waarin die VSA se beleid moet geskied, begin die studie met ‘n oorsig van die kernwapen versperring regime. Dit word gevolg deur ‘n ondersoek van onderskeidelik ontwapening, proliferasie deur nie-kernwapenstate (met Iran en Noord-Korea as gevallestudies) en kernwapen terrorisme. By elkeen van die drie temas word ‘n vergelyking tussen die Bush administrasie en die Obama adminstrasie se beleide getref. Laastens word ‘n analise van die hoof verskille en ooreenkomste tussen die twee administrasies se benaderings onderneem, met die klem op die gebruik van harde, sagte en slim mag. Die bevinding van die studie is dat die hoof verskille tussen die Bush en Obama administrasies se benaderings behels dat Bush slegs een beleidsopsie (harde mag) op ‘n slag nagevolg het, terwyl Obama beoog om terselfdertyd van verskillende beleidsopsies (slim mag) gebruik te maak, met veral ‘n fokus op ‘n toename in die gebruik van sagte mag. Die soort pragmatisme mag dalk net wees wat die VSA tans nodig het om die probleem van kernwapen proliferasie aan te spreek.

The objectives of the study were to demonstrate that South Africa's decisions to develop and destroy its nuclear weapon capability were influenced by reactions to domestic security and other issues unrelated to security. South Africa obtained a nuclear weapon capacity because of an incremental approach to the nuclear weapon decision. The threat perceptions in the mind of the decision maker were also dominant factors, especially when the final decision for a nuclear deterrent was taken. The decision to destroy the nuclear weapon capacity was not primarily influenced by the growing non-proliferation norm, but by the changing security environment regionally as well as globally and possibly a realisation that a nuclear weapon capability was a significant security and financial liability for South Africa in the end. / Political Science / M.A. (International Politics)

Thesis (MA (Political Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This thesis aims to ascertain the level of success which civil society and state actors have had in dealing with issues of arms control and disarmament in the SADC region during the post- Cold War era. The main research question shall be divided into two key questions, the first being: How successful have states been in managing arms control and disarmament in the SADC region? The second question being: How successful has civil society been in managing arms control and disarmament in the SADC region? The study is therefore an evaluative study and shall be focused on the case study of Mozambique. Two arms control processes shall be evaluated in this regard. First is the “Transforming weapons into Ploughshares” or TAE project which is a civil society campaign aimed at minimizing the harsh impacts that Small Arms and Light Weapons have on Mozambican society. The demarcated time period for this project shall be 1995-2003. Second is state driven operation between South African and Mozambican police aimed at locating and destroying arms caches responsible for fuelling the illicit trade in light arms between the two countries. This project was known as Operation Rachel and shall be evaluated from the period of 1995-2001. Through evaluating these two projects, the study shall seek to make the point that in terms of arms control in post-conflict developing states, there is a role for both state and civil societies. The role of civil society organizations can be seen as one of identifying security threats, raising public awareness and democratizing security issues such as arms control so that society at large becomes active in negating the problem. The role of the state on the other hand is to live up to its duties as the chief provider of security for the designated population within the state’s territorial boundary. Arms control in Mozambique and in the SADC region in general has been mediocre at best since as shall be demonstrated, states are far too weak to offer any meaningful protection to citizens and secondly civil society organizations which have taken it upon themselves to offer this kind of protection are just not well resourced enough to undertake state responsibilities. Thus the key recommendation of this study is that Southern African states invariably need to build up their capacities. Light weapons have spread uncontrollably throughout the region because weak and fractured states could not contain the problem and continue struggling to manage a multitude of security threats. It is therefore up to civil society organizations to build strong societies which can demand stronger state action. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie tesis se doel is om vas te stel tot watter mate die burgerlike samelewing en Staat akteurs sukses behaal het in terme van wapenbeheer en ontwapening in die Suider-Afrikaanse Ontwikkelings Gemeenskap (SAOG) streek na die koue oorlog. Die hoof navorsings vraag sal in twee kern vrae verdeel word, Die eerste vraag is: Hoeveel sukses het die burgerlike samelewing in die SAOG streek gehad met die bestuur van wapenbeheer en ontwapening? Die tweede vraag is: hoeveel sukses het Staat akteurs in die SAOG streek gehad met die bestuur van wapenbeheer en ontwapening? Hierdie studie is dus ʼn evaluerende studie en sal op Mosambiek fokus as gevalle-studie. Twee wapenbeheer prosesse sal in hierdie tesis evalueer word. Eerste, is die “Transforming Weapons into Ploughshares” of “TAE” projek wat ʼn burgerlike samelewings veldtog is, wat hom ten doel gestel het om die negatiewe impak van ligte-wapens op Mosambiekse samelewing te verminder. Die afgebakende tydperk vir hierdie studie sal 1995-2003 wees. Die tweede proses is die staat-gedrewe operasie tussen die Suid-Afrikaanse en Mosambiekse polisie. Die doel van hierdie projek was om die wapen-opslagplekke wat verantwoordelik is vir die onwettige handel in wapens tussen die twee lande te identifiseer en dienooreenkomstig te verwoes. Hierdie was bekend as “Operation Rachel” en sal tussen 1995-2001 evalueer word. Duur die evaluering van hierdie twee projekte sal die studie probeer om die punt te maak dat daar ʼn rol is vir beide die burgerlike samelewing en die staat in terme van wapenbeheer in post-konflik, ontwikkelende lande. Die rol van burgerlike samelewing organisasies kan beskou word as die identifisering van bedreigings wat veiligheid en sekuriteit kan raak, om bewustheid te kweek en die demokratisering van veiligheid en sekuriteit kwessies soos wapenbeheer. Die rol van die staat is om hulle plig te vervul as die ‘hoof verskaffer’ van sekuriteit vir die bevolking binne die staat se territoriale grense. Wapenbeheer in Mosambiek en in die SAOG streek in die algemeen was totdusver minder suksesvol gewees, aangesien state heeltemal te swak is om enige betekenisvolle beskerming aan hulle burgers te verleen. Tweedens, het burgerlike samelewings organisasies wat die verantwoordelikheid aangeneem het om beskerming te verleen net nie genoeg hulpbronne om die staat se verantwoordelikhede te vervul nie. Dus, is die kern aanbeveling van hierdie tesis dat Suider-Afrikaanse state hulle bekwaamheid en kapasiteit sal moet versterk. Ligte wapens het onbeheersd dwarsdeur die streek versprei omdat swak state nie oor die kapasiteit beskik om veelvuldige veiligheids en sekuriteits-bedreigings te kan hanteer nie. Dit hang dus van burgerlike samelewingsv organisasies af om sterk samelewings te bou wat op hul beurt kan aandring op sterker staatsoptrede om hierdie kwessies meer daadwerklik aan te spreek.

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / This thesis analyzes the "updated Petersberg tasks" included in the draft treaty establishing a Constitution for the European Union. The original Petersberg tasks called for forces capable of humanitarian and rescue missions, peacekeeping operations and tasks of combat forces in crisis management, including peacemaking. The updated tasks add conflict prevention, joint disarmament, military advice and assistance, post-conflict stabilization, and support to third countries in combating terrorism. The thesis focuses on the requirements of these tasks and the capabilities of the European Union's civilian agencies and military forces to execute them. It explores the meaning of the new missions, their specific capability requirements, and the prospects for the European Union to meet these requirements. It concludes that the European Union is currently capable of undertaking the missions that require mostly civilian tools or medium-level military forces for their conduct. The European Union does not at present have the relevant capabilities for the missions that demand more advanced military forces. / Major, Hellenic Army

Most scholarly research and international policy initiatives on small arms control (SALW) tend to focus exclusively on the supply side of arms control, while the demand side for small arms remains relatively unexplored. The general assumption is that by regulating the international and regional supply of SALW, and by preventing and tracking the illicit flow that drift into the open markets, armed violence can be reduced. However, empirical evidence suggests that attempts to control and reduce the supply of weapons through sanctions, embargoes, and regional commitments alone have hardly stopped or mitigated armed conflict. In looking at the global arms trade, one sees that often countries subjected to supply side restrictions have managed to acquire arms through finding willing sellers, black market acquisitions, and/or domestic production. This dissertation examines the factors that drive the demand for SALW in weak states by identifying the important gaps in literature on demand, providing a consistent and systematic framework to address these gaps, and applying the framework to a single country case study. The main argument in this study is that in order to understand group arming behaviour, its relationship to the dynamics of armed conflict, and the kind of incentives integral to the design of interventions that seek to influence behaviours associated with arms acquisitions during post-conflict arms management, there needs to be a better understanding of the independent variables shaping the demand for SALW. Too often, analysts conflate the reasons why groups acquire SALW with the reasons why groups go to war. However, if the act of acquiring SALW occurs at a different point in time from the process of organising and planning armed conflict, the two events need to be analysed separately. This study uses a human security analytical approach to understand sources of threats to security at the household level. It employs a nationally representative rapid household survey (n=1200) on SALW ownership, acquisition and attitudes, and focus group discussions (n=77) implemented in select locations to unpack responses which have not been thoroughly addressed during the survey. In-depth interviews with key informants, civilian firearm permit records, and public health data were also collected to supplement primary data. The design is applied to a single case study, the Casamance in Senegal. This study illustrates that an increased level of weapons accumulation does not always necessitate an automatic rise in SALW related violence or local level arms races at the outset of armed conflict. This works contributes to the growing body of literature on SALW by advancing an analytically applicable concept of demand to increase our understanding of what motivates the choices groups make in acquiring and using small arms. Lastly, this study develops a replicable template that can be applied to further research on SALW demand in conflict-ridden regions.

L’Afrique est, depuis quelques décennies, « la zone stratégique la plus déstabilisée de la planète ». La question des conflits armés constitue un véritable « casse-tête africain » aussi bien pour les acteurs locaux qu’internationaux qui s’y intéressent en ce que son caractère interne contraste avec les conséquences transnationales qui en résultent.Comment sortir de cette insécurité chronique et de la guerre civile qui guette en permanence derrière le rideau et parvenir à une stabilité et un développement durables afin de limiter au mieux les nombreuses violations des droits de l’homme occasionnées à cet effet?Des approches de solution n’ont pas manqué, allant de la solution militaire, peu respectueuse des vies humaines, à la solution négociée qui appelle au génie créatif de l’homme et de son intelligence, soucieuse de préserver le genre humain en « imaginant » ou en « inventant » des compromis inscrits dans des accords, essentiellement, politiques. C’est donc, à juste titre, que l’objet de notre étude porte sur cette question africaine traduite par un intitulé très actuel : « Les accords politiques dans la résolution des conflits armés internes en Afrique ». L’analyse envisagée dans la présente étude expose la conclusion des accords politiques en insistant distinctement sur l’environnement politique de leur formation ainsi que le cadre juridique qui les caractérise, d’une part. D’autre part, il paraît indiqué d’examiner l’application de ces accords en décortiquant la feuille de route dans laquelle ils évoluent en vue d’en dresser un bilan scientifiquement objectif afin de mesurer l’effectivité de leur mise en œuvre et leur efficacité en matière de protection des droits de l’homme. / Since some decades, Africa is «the most destabilized strategic area of the plane. » the issue of armed conflicts represent a real «African puzzle» as well for local actors as international ones who are involve in, with its internal characteristic contrast with the transnational consequences which result from.How to get out of this chronically in security and the civil war which permanently watch out behind curtain in order to reach sustainable development and stability in order to better limit numerous violations of human rights done in that fact?Some approaches of solution are numerous, going from military solution less respecting human lives, to the negociated solutions which call for the human genius and his intelligent, anxious to preserve human gender by «imaging» or by « inventing» Compromises signed in agreements, essentially political. Its then, precisely that African issue translated by an updated heading: agreements in the resolution of internal armed conflits in Africa. »The analysis considered in the present study will expose the conclusion of political agreements by insisting distinctly on political environment, their formation as well on the legal framework which characterizes them, on one hand. On the other hand, it seems important to examine the application of those agreements by analyzing in details the agenda in which they evoluate in order to draw up scientifically the balance sheet of the objective in order to assess the affectivity of their implementation and their effectiveness in domain of human rights protection.

La revendication et/ou suggestion d'une africanisation du maintien de la paix en Afrique devait conduire à la réforme du système africain de sécurité. Il s'agit d’une réforme tant normative qu'institutionnelle menée en vue de donner une nouvelle orientation au cadre opérationnel dans l’optique d’une meilleure contribution du continent au maintien de la paix et de la sécurité internationales. Ce travail s'est opéré à la fois au niveau régional et au niveau des communautés économiques régionales (CER) qui font partie intégrante de l’architecture africaine de paix et de sécurité telle que construite au sein et autour de l’Union africaine. Le plus emblématique est pour l’UA de s'être dotée d’un droit d'intervention là où certaines CER, à l'instar de la CEDEAO, avaient déjà pris des initiatives, afin de répondre aux crises les plus diverses dont le génocide. A tout prendre, il s’agit d'une avancée significative du système ainsi mis en place. A l’observation toutefois, on peine à voir un modèle typiquement africain des opérations de maintien de la paix, tant il est vrai que les deux segments, organisation et déploiement opérationnel, laissent apparaître une hétéronormativité et un déploiement pluri-institutionnel. Cela découle sans doute de la prégnance de la fragilité de certains acteurs étatiques qui frise tout élan de construction d’un système communautaire de sécurité fort, nécessitant au surplus des mesures de (re) construction de l’Etat, appuyée par les institutions internationales dont la première d’entre elles - l’ONU. / The demand and/or suggestion of an Africanization of peacekeeping in Africa should lead to the reform of the African security system. This is a normative and institutional reform aimed at giving a new orientation to the operational framework in order to enhancing the continent's contribution to the maintenance of international peace and security. This work has been carried out both at the regional level and at the regional economic community (REC) level, which are an integral part of the African peace and security architecture as built within and around the African Union. The most emblematic is for the AU to have a right of intervention where certain RECs, like ECOWAS, have already taken initiatives to respond to the most diverse crises including the genocide. On the whole, this is a significant step forward in the system thus put in place. However, it is difficult to see a typical African model of peacekeeping operations, as it is true that the two segments, operational organization and deployment, reveal a heteronormativity and a multi-institutional deployment. This is probably due to the fragility of certain state actors, which hampers any effort to build a strong Community security system, which in addition requires measures to (re) build the state, supported by international institutions, Starting with the first - the United Nations.

Amorcée dès la mort de Staline en mars 1953, la décrispation des antagonismes Est-Ouest connaît cependant des fluctuations dans les années suivantes, jusqu'au sommet des tensions internationales que représente la crise de Cuba de l'automne 1962. Débute alors une période d'accalmie communément qualifiée de « détente ». Notre étude s’est ainsi fixée comme mission d’étudier l’influence de ce contexte international sur le monde politique français. De la fin de la crise de Cuba au voyage du général de Gaulle en Union soviétique en juin 1966, celui-Ci évolue dans sa vision de la guerre froide et révèle un « esprit » de détente plus ou moins fort. Si tous les partis et les structures non-Partisanes de l’opposition non-Communiste sont favorables à un encouragement de la détente, rares sont ceux qui appellent à baisser sa garde face à un pays qui reste le plus probable des adversaires. La notion de sécurité est centrale pour des responsables politiques aspirant à assumer les réalités du pouvoir. Afin d’avancer vers un approfondissement de la détente, tout en réglant une question allemande omniprésente, il faut continuer la construction européenne, emprunter la voie de la sécurité collective, désarmer simultanément et développer les liens avec l’Est. / Starting after Stalin’s death in March, 1953, the de-Escalation of East-West antagonism nevertheless experienced fluctuations in the ensuing years, reaching its climax of international tension with the Cuba crisis of autumn 1962. Thus began a period of respite broadly known as the “Détente”. And so our mission was established: to study the influence of this international context on the French political world. From the end of the Cuba crisis to General de Gaulle’s journey to Soviet Union in June, 1966, de Gaulle’s perception of the cold war evolves and reveals a more or less strong “spirit” of Détente. If all non-Partisan parties and organizations of the Non-Communist opposition are in favor of Détente, rare are those who call for lowering their guards when faced with a country that remains the most likely of adversaries. The issue of security is central for political officials aspiring to assume power. In order to move forward towards a strengthening of the Détente, all while addressing the issue of an omnipresent Germany, it is necessary to continue European construction, follow the path of collective security, disarm simultaneously, and develop links with the East.

My doctoral project investigates the impact of Ronald Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative on transatlantic relations during the period 1983-86. The dissertation focuses on the three main European powers, namely Britain, France, and the Federal Republic of Germany, and examines their reaction to SDI both individually and comparatively. The study exploits SDI’s position at the intersection of nuclear strategy, political ideology, Cold War diplomacy, and industrial politics to offer a multifaceted, multi-national, and primary source-based analysis of US-European relations during the Reagan Presidency. The picture of the transatlantic relationship which emerges from the dissertation is a complex and nuanced one. On the one hand, the analysis argues that relations across the Atlantic during the Reagan era cannot be reduced to a scenario of accelerating ‘drift’ between the United States and Western Europe. Instead, on SDI as well as on other matters, moments of acute friction alternated with a constantly renewed search for dialogue, cooperation, and compromise on the part of the Europeans and also, if to a lesser degree, of the Americans. On the other hand, the ‘exceptionalist’ ideology and worldview underpinning SDI, the prevailing indifference in Washington to its implications for NATO, and most importantly the persistent anti-nuclear rhetoric and ambitions associated with the initiative revealed a distinct lack of sensitivity to European interest by the Reagan administration. As the dissertation shows, the anti-nuclear drive inherent in SDI, which both reflected and reinforced Reagan’s deep-seated interest in nuclear abolition, constituted the most disruptive aspect of the initiative from the viewpoint of European leaders. In these respects, the SDI controversy epitomises the unilateral tendencies and increasingly divergent priorities from those of the European allies which characterised much of the Reagan administration’s foreign policy – making the 1980s a decade of recurrent tensions in transatlantic relations.

Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2018-08-17T12:56:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Gustavo André Olsson_.pdf: 6230626 bytes, checksum: 8da11c42afc03792822d037659ac9e87 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-17T12:56:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Gustavo André Olsson_.pdf: 6230626 bytes, checksum: 8da11c42afc03792822d037659ac9e87 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-26 / Nenhuma / A tese analisa o fenômeno da eficácia/efetividade do Direito Penal, a partir da reconstrução discursiva e da análise dos objetivos buscados e dos resultados alcançados com o Estatuto do Desarmamento, a Lei Maria da Penha e a Lei de Drogas. Investiga a classificação dessas leis no âmbito da dogmática jurídica, especificamente no sentido de verificar o posicionamento doutrinário que aponta se tratar da categoria denominada como “Direito Penal Simbólico” e, por consequência, normas sem eficácia no sistema social. Assim, a partir de um posicionamento sistêmico (Niklas Luhmann e Leonel Severo Rocha), o trabalho reconstrói, fazendo uso do conhecimento da criminologia e da dogmática do direito penal, as características nucleares do fenômeno denominado “Direito Penal Simbólico”. A partir disso, observa e analisa a conclusão dogmática a respeito da ineficácia das normas penais com tais caraterísticas, discutindo o conteúdo desse conceito e apontando uma possível necessidade de diferenciação, para uma categoria de efetividade legislativa. Após, com o intuito de testar cientificamente o enquadramento adotado pela dogmática penal, a pesquisa reconstrói o contexto comunicacional existente no sistema político, a partir do levantamento dos discursos e das manifestações do Presidente da República e dos membros do Congresso Nacional, quando das discussões e manifestações oficiais envolvidas com a criação e a recepção dos três conjuntos normativos no sistema jurídico, permitindo a descoberta dos objetivos sociais declarados para a sua criação, o que, por sua vez, permite a testagem a respeito do impacto legislativo no sistema social, medido a partir da efetividade normativa. Por fim, considerando esses objetivos, a tese analisa os dados estatísticos relevantes e mencionados nas comunicações do sistema político e nos meios de comunicação (quando da realização de atos legislativos), como meio de aferir se essas leis atingiram os objetivos pretendidos e, na medida do possível, comparar a eficácia/efetividade delas entre si. Concluindo, assim, não apenas pelo enquadramento das leis na categoria analítica, assim como pela existência de correlação com mudanças nos comportamentos sociais (efetividade). / This research analyses the phenomenon of efficacy and effectiveness of Criminal Law, based on the discursive reconstruction and analysis of the desired (legal) objectives and the results achieved with the Disarmament Statute, the “Maria da Penha” Law and the Drug’s Statute. It investigates the dogmatic classification of these norms, specifically with focus on verifying the doctrinal position that points to the category denominated "Symbolic Criminal Law" and, consequently, to the law ineffectiveness in the social system. Thus, from a systemic standpoint, the work reconstructs, using the knowledge of criminology and criminal dogmatic, the nuclear characteristics of the phenomenon called "Symbolic Criminal Law". From this, it observes and analyses the dogmatic conclusion regarding the inefficacy of criminal norms with such characteristics, discussing the content of this concept and pointing out a change, for a category of legislative effectiveness. After, in order to scientifically test the framework adopted by criminal dogmatics, the research reconstructs the communication context in the political system, based on the presentation of the speeches and public manifestations of the President of the Republic and the members of the National Congress, in the moment of discussions and speeches involved in the creation and reception of the Disarmament Statute (2003), the “Maria da Penha” Law (2006) and the Drug’s Statute (2006) in the legal system. This information allows to discovery the desired social objectives for the creation of these laws, and permits testing the legislative impact on the social system, considering the normative effectiveness. Finally, considering these objectives, the research analyses the relevant statistical data mentioned in the communications of the political system and in the media (during the creating process of that legislative acts), as a mean of assessing whether these laws have achieved the intended objectives and, to the extent comparing their efficacy/effectiveness with each other. In this way, it is possible to give answers about dogmatic classification of these laws and about the achievement of social objectives.