兩岸在政治制度、法令規章、思想觀念與新聞價值迥異的基礎上進行新聞交流，原本即存在一定程度的制約，受兩岸關係發展進程與氛圍的影響尤為顯著，而無法單獨進行。 事實證明，兩岸新聞交流在推動兩岸關係朝正向發展方面的作用是重要，也是顯著的，尤其是兩岸關係長期處於不穩定的狀態下，兩岸新聞媒體在相互採訪交流中，肩負起溝通、認知、釋疑、解惑的重責大任。新聞記者是站在時代尖端、瞭解社會民情的觀察員，也是兩岸同胞情感的聯絡人，透過從業人員的口筆報導與資訊傳遞，使海峽兩岸之聯繫終能不脫離民意與時代潮流。多年來兩岸關係雖跌宕起伏，但始終在曲折中向前發展，其中兩岸的媒體工作者，持續不懈地發揮了特殊的輿論推動作用。 　 兩岸新聞交流發展歷程中，中國大陸在開放的步幅與相關管理法規的發布上，均較我國為快速，可以合理推論大陸官方非常清楚其內部需求，以及兩岸傳媒交流合作的重要性與勢不可擋的趨勢。然而，大陸在對臺相關政策中的策略性內涵，幾乎完全脫離不開其「統戰」思維。單純作為一個維繫國家政權控制力與擴張力的依據，「統戰」思維似乎並無其特別謬誤或值得爭議處；然而面對國際事務或處理兩岸關係，惟私的「統戰」意圖即有其明顯偏差。 另對於一個力推新聞傳媒「走出去」戰略的政權，中國大陸沒有一部《新聞法》實有礙傳媒事業的發展與國際評價。微觀而論，作為最低限度的新聞道德，欠缺《新聞法》將無法在保護新聞自由的同時，嚴格限制新聞界濫用報導權和評論權的行為。宏觀而論，未訂定《新聞法》，將使中國大陸新聞傳媒邁向國際社會之路困難重重。 新聞交流在兩岸關係發展佔有重要地位，然而交流互動中所潛藏的不利或危安因素，卻是吾人應深切體悟與善加防範者。如何秉持馬總統大陸政策「以臺灣為主、對人民有利」的最高綱領，落實「創新強國、文化興國、環保救國、憲政固國、福利安國、和平護國」主張，並融合雙方「正視現實、開創未來、擱置爭議、追求雙贏」、「建立互信、擱置爭議、求同存異、共創雙贏」的共信共識，循「先易後難、先經後政、循序漸進」步驟，使中國大陸對臺灣的「威脅極小化、機會極大化」，實為我產、官、學界積極開展新聞交流互動重中之重的要務。

90年代以後，全世界各地區幾乎都已成立地區性合作組織，唯獨東亞地區，卻仍未形成特有的地區組織，僅出現一些涵蓋東亞國家的合作組織和論壇，如東協、亞太經濟合會；嚴格而言，此二組織無法真正代表東亞地區合作組織，因為東協並未包括東亞地區的中共、日本和亞洲四小龍（新加坡外）；而亞太經合會涵蓋的區域過於廣闊，成員也不僅限於東亞國家。東亞區域化早在1980年代即展開，政府間合作主導的東亞區域主義也於1990年代後期開始快速萌芽，其中以東協為軸心的「東協加N」系統的區域經濟整合發展更是明顯。 1990年代末期，國際間簽署區域或雙邊自由貿易協定（FTA）蔚為風潮。中國面對世界經濟環境變化，以及促進國內經濟結構轉型的實際需求，對外洽簽FTA的態度也越顯積極。尤其中共總書記胡錦濤2007年明確提出「實施自由貿易區戰略」，此係中國首次將對外布建自貿區列為國家級戰略，其與主要貿易夥伴洽簽FTA，更邁入全面快速進展新階段。2001年中國加入WTO後，中國積極發展區域經貿關係，融入世界經濟整合的面向與深度均有顯著擴展。從近年中國與貿易夥伴洽簽FTA的現況與展望，亦可窺見其布局策略取向，係著眼於「立足周邊、邁向市場、掌握資源」等三大面向。迄2010年9月底，中國已簽署及商談中的FTA計14個，除涵蓋範圍東亞地區，更擴及富藏能源與潛在商機的新興市場（如：海灣國家、智利、秘魯），逐步建構橫跨全球5大洲的自由貿易網絡。同時，中國更積極爭取與日本、南韓洽簽FTA，期建立「東北亞自由貿易區」，與北美、歐盟形成三足鼎立之勢。中國洽簽FTA快速進展，不僅有助加快其企業「走出去」步伐，提升中國在國際經貿分工地位，也因其潛藏貿易競合與區位戰略動機，勢將牽動東亞、乃至全球的區域經濟整合走向。 二十多年來兩岸經濟關係演變與發展，與經濟全球化和國際產業分工深化發展密不可分。目前，兩岸經濟關係已成為兩岸參與經濟全球化進程的重要平臺，推動了兩岸經濟的轉型與發展。面對臺灣被排除在東亞經濟整合體制之外的嚴厲挑戰可能是臺灣生存危機，但也可能是臺灣發展契機，端視臺灣的因應思維與回應戰略，以及臺灣政府的決心與能力。東亞經濟整合體制的發展是全球貿易、投資與生產要素流動更加自由化的契機。因此，東亞經濟整合體制的建構正提供臺灣一個絕佳的揮灑舞台。臺灣在全球經貿表現有目共睹，臺灣面積不到世界萬分之3、人口僅占千分之4，但按貿易總額，為全球第16大貿易國，按GDP，是全球第18大經濟體；另臺灣居全球投資風險排名第5名、全球競爭力排名第8名，投資環境評比全球排名第4名，另在晶圓代工、IC封裝、光碟片、Mask Rom、電解銅箔等全球市占率第1，惟過去因為國際政治處境特殊，一直被排除在亞太或其他地區經濟整合之外，對臺灣經貿造成一定衝擊，特別是亞洲各國積極投入FTA的簽署，而臺灣卻被排除在外無法參與最為明顯，但在兩岸於2010年6月29日完成洽簽經濟合作架構協議（ECFA）後，已開啓臺灣與其他重要貿易夥伴的經濟整合之門，為臺灣經濟前景創造新的契機。ECFA後，臺灣從此邁入嶄新的經濟時代，除加速兩岸經貿正常化外，還將開啟參與國際及區域整合，逐步邁入自由貿易島。

台灣自加入世界貿易組織（WTO）後，已對於服務業市場進行逐步開放，然面對全球服務貿易自由化之趨勢，以及我國產業結構面臨調整轉型之際，政府欲藉由服務業之發展，帶動經濟成長，使服務業成為我國經濟發展的新動能。由2004年行政院所提出「十二大服務業發展綱領及行動方案」至2009年推動的「服務業發展方案」，未來持續推動六大新興產業、十大重點服務業等細部措施，可看出政府近年來對於服務業的國內發展和對外拓展重視程度不斷增加，期望能將整體服務業的附加價值提升，創造就業機會，增進整體經濟與生活品質。 台灣於2002年加入世界貿易組織，服務業開放承諾項目共計119項，惟對中國大陸並未按照入會承諾履行開放義務，直到2010年6月29日，我國與中國大陸簽署兩岸經濟合作架構協議（Cross-Straits Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement; 以下簡稱ECFA），開啟兩岸經貿自由化之契機，依兩岸經濟合作架構協議第4條規定，雙方後續將推動服務貿易協議，進一步開放服務業市場，未來我國將面臨服務業對中國大陸履行入會承諾之壓力。 本研究將分析兩岸服務業發展現況、相互開放情形及我國對中國大陸開放服務業之原則，探討未來ECFA服務貿易協議我國於協商時可能面臨之挑戰及市場開放議題可能涉及問題，並提出政策建議。 / Since Taiwan acceded to WTO, its services market has been stepping up the process of liberalization. However, confronting the trend of global liberalization of services trade and the change of industry structure, Taiwan government would like to boost its economic growth by developing services industry. The policies “A guiding plan for development of services (2004)” and “The program of services industry development (2009)” will keep promoting the six rising industries and the ten key services. Taiwan government focuses on not only its domestic but also foreign services markets in these years, hoping to increase the value added, employment opportunities and quality of life. Taiwan acceded to WTO in 2002 and opened 119 services sectors in GATS. But it didn’t fulfill its commitment of opening its services market to Mainland China. After, the signing of Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, ECFA on June 29, 2010,both governments have formally started the trade liberalization. According to ECFA Article 4, Both parties will enter into negotiation of an agreement on trade in services, for further liberalization of services market. By the time, Taiwan will encounter great difficulties in liberalizing its domestic market and the pressure of fulfilling its commitments in GATS. The study will try to analyze the liberalization status of cross-straits services market, the principle of Taiwan market liberalization to Mainland China, the difficulties of negotiation on trade in services, the issues regarding market access and suggestions.

貿易機會為產業間貿易或產業內貿易的發生或開拓，對於以貿易為經濟命脈的臺灣，如何創造貿易機會更是極為重要的課題。近年來簽訂國與國或區與區之間的貿易協定，以制定簽約國或地區相互貿易的優惠條件已蔚為一股風潮。 臺灣與中國大陸僅相隔臺灣海峽，由於地理位置鄰近、歷史背景及語言文化共通等因素，兩岸貿易往來頻繁而密集，於2009年開放陸資來臺投資、2010年簽訂「兩岸經濟合作架構協議」（Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement，ECFA），此後於2012年由海基會與海協會達成共識簽訂「海峽兩岸投資保障和促進協定」（簡稱：投保協定），並於2013年2月1日正式生效，使兩岸雙向貿易更加通行無阻。 本研究以2013年經濟部投資審議委員會「陸資投資事業營運狀況調查表」之問卷資料為分析對象，以廠商規模、行業類別、資本密集度、技術研發比率、國外投資比率、人力資本、關稅障礙、政策法規制約程度、項目開放不足程度、同業競爭共10個決定因素，歸納為廠商特性、營運策略與貿易障礙三大構面，運用Probit Model來探討ECFA與投保協定生效後，影響兩岸貿易機會的決定因素。 實證結果發現，「廠商規模」、「資本密集度」、「技術研發比率」與「政策法規制約程度」為影響兩岸貿易機會的重要決定因素。 / “Trade Opportunities”define as the development of inter-industry or intra-industry trade. For country like Taiwan, trading is an essential part of nation’s economy. As such, how to create trade opportunities is a very important topic. Singing of FTA（Free Trade Agreement）between countries or regions to reduce the trade barriers and develop preferential terms for mutual trading is booming in recent years. Due to geographical proximity（separated by the Taiwan Strait）, historical background and the common language and cultural factors, cross-strait trade has been more frequent and intensive. In 2009, allowing Mainland China Investors to invest in Taiwan. And in 2010, both parties signed the“ECFA （Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement）”. Then in 2012 “Cross-Strait Bilateral Investment Protection and Promotion Agreement” was signed and effective on February 1, 2013, making cross-strait bilateral trade even more unimpeded. This study conducts an empirical research based on the questionnaire survey data of “2013 Investigation Report on Operation Status of The Mainland China-Investment Enterprises”from Ministry of Economic Affairs in Taiwan. I classify the questionnaire survey data into 10 determinants: the scale of the firm, the industry category, the capital intensity, the R&D （research and development）ratio, the foreign investment ratio, the human capital, tariff barriers , the degree of control in policy and regulations, the degree of openness of the project, and the competition. These can be summarized into three aspects: the characteristics of the firm, the operational strategy and the trade barriers. Then using the Probit Model to analyze the determinants of trade opportunity of Mainland China enterprises in Taiwan when ECFA and Cross-Strait Bilateral Investment Protection and Promotion Agreement go into effect. The empirical results show that“the scale of the firm”、“the capital intensity”、“the R&D ratio”and“the degree of control in policy and regulations”are most important determinants of trade opportunity of Mainland China enterprises in Taiwan.

企業要從競爭激烈的環境中脫穎而出，除了要有好的競爭策略與執行力外，擁有充足且低廉的資金、知名且廣受信賴的聲譽，以及優秀又肯為公司效力的經營團隊與員工，是企業領先競爭對手的必要條件。成功推動公司股票上市櫃，無疑是創造這些競爭優勢的重要關鍵。而如何為企業提供一個有效率而低成本的資本市場，同時提供投資人一個有保障又有成長率的投資平台，不但有利企業的後續發展，亦關係著該地資本市場的資金動能。 過去幾年大陸為避免經濟過熱及產生泡沫化之風險，故實施一連串的宏觀調控措施，使得台商在中國大陸籌資更形困難；另欲回台上市又遭遇政策及相關法令的限制，故部份大陸台商便計劃在大陸或香港上市，甚至為達香港上市要求之市值規模，而規劃台灣下市並以海外控股公司為掛牌主體在香港上市，這種連根拔起的舉動勢必影響台灣的資本市場及經濟發展。而自2008年5月馬政府上台執政以後，積極推動兩岸政策的鬆綁及若干的寬鬆優惠政策，重量級台商如旺旺、康師傅等紛紛回台發行TDR，且發行時投資人皆超額認購股票，供不應求下掛牌後漲幅不少。但鄰近的大陸及香港資本市場也在積極招商，鼓勵海外企業掛牌，而深圳創業板的成立，以吸引不少中小企業掛牌，加上上海國際板亦規劃在2011年成立，勢必也會衝擊鄰近的資本市場。因應大陸及香港資本市場的競爭，大陸宏觀調控政策、勞動合同法的實施、缺工及巨幅調薪現象，政府有無推出相關政策及措施來協助台商轉型並提升競爭力呢？冀望經由本研究，探討目前台商回台上市所面臨的問題與障礙，並提出相關建議以求解決之道，期盼能恢復資本市場動能及企業能擴大對台投資，使企業根留台灣，對台灣經濟永續發展。

Since the Cold War ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union, China has become a nation that rises to strong power. While the USA, Japan, the EU and Russia marvel at China¡¦s progress and improvement, its neighboring countries in Asia were worried. They question whether the rise of China will bring about peaceful co-operation between nations or it will lead to potential threats. But China in 2005 claimed to take the path of peaceful development in order to improve the image of China. At the time the formation of the European Union, for its member countries to enjoy the advantage over import and export trade with each other, Asia also started a new union of its own, the ASEAN. Although there were negative impacts on China with Tiananmen Square Incident and poisonous milk incident, the Beijing 2008 Olympics games and the World Expo 2010 Shanghai have helped to improve the China¡¦s image which has brought the attention of the ASEAN. China signed the free trade agreement with the ASEAN in 2010 resulted in ASEAN Plus One. In addition, zero tariff trade agreement starting has further improved the development of China¡¦s economy. The Taiwanese government has signed the ECFA with China in June 2010 which relates to the development of the nation in the next ten years to a large extent. However, will ECFA really prevent the marginalization of Taiwan in the global economy or will Taiwan become more marginalized? Will China exploit the economy of Taiwan due to ECFA? Or will it help the Taiwanese economy to reach its peak? In this thesis, the theory of international relations will be examined at the global, international, local and individual levels and the analysis on the future development of the ASEAN and the Cross-strait political and economic relations of China and Taiwan from the perspectives of improving the image of China and ECFA will be carried out. The prediction of the future development of relations among the ASEAN, Mainland China and Taiwan will also be included in this research. Finally, suggestions will be provided in the conclusion for the leaders to make any future decisions on the issues discussed. It is unquestionable that most ¡§peaceful co-operation¡¨ between Taiwan and Mainland China has ever existed is happening today in the past 62 years of Cross-strait co-operation history. As such, it is hoped that the developments of both Mainland China and Taiwan can be sustained and they can co-operate to explore the resources of South East Asia.

政府開放赴大陸投資二十年，逐漸放寬對大陸投資限制，在大陸廣大市場商機誘因下，對大陸投資規模日益擴大，投資業別亦擴及服務業，對大陸投資形成新局面，究竟兩岸經貿政策對台商赴中國大陸投資影響如何，乃為本研究動機。 本研究採文獻分析與焦點座談暨深度訪談法，經由次級資料分析，兩岸經貿政策鬆綁對台灣競爭力、經濟成長、貿易、商港貨櫃裝卸量及來台旅客均呈現成長。另一方面，近年主要產品在海外生產比重增加，我國在美國、日本、大陸進口市場佔有率逐漸下滑，台商在台灣採購設備及零組件比率降低，且台商在海外研發當地化情形日益明顯。另一方面產學界專家認為政府輔導策略首先應強化在大陸之聯繫網絡；善用台商在大陸既有通路，以整體行銷台灣產品；引導創新研發及高階製程留在台灣；政府加速鬆綁產業交流所涉及之法規；強化智慧財產權之宣導與投資保護；透過台資銀行在大陸分行，提供台商融資管道。未來並應加強與台商產業鏈連結，將海外台商納入台灣產業發展一環，同時落實ECFA實施效益，創造國內經濟發展的正面效益。 / Since allowing investment in China 20 years ago, the government of Taiwan has gradually lifted restrictions on China-based investments by its citizens. Enticed by the expanded market opportunities in China, R.O.C. nationals are rapidly scaling up their investments on the mainland China by broadening their investments to many industries and the service sector, which has become a new development in investing in China. Whether the cross-strait economic and trade policies affect the investment of Taiwan businessmen in mainland China, is a motivation of this study. The literature review and focus groups & depth interviews were used in this study . Through the secondary data analysis, Cross-Strait trade policies have manifested in progress and growth in Taiwan’s competitiveness, economic growth, trade, container throughput by commercial ports, and the number of tourists visiting Taiwan. However, the government should pay close attention to the fact that during the last few years the proportion of major products produced overseas has increased, while the market share of Taiwanese imports in the United States, Japan, and China markets has gradually declined and procurements of machines/equipment and components/parts by Taiwanese businesses has dropped. Moreover, the localization of R&D overseas by Taiwanese businesses has noticeably increased. The government’s assistance strategy should first focus on the strengthening of contacts and networks in China. It should also leverage existing Taiwanese business channels in China to expand the sales of Taiwanese products in the China market through an integrated marketing campaign and facilitate innovative R&D while keeping high-end production processes in Taiwan. The government should also relax laws governing industry exchanges, strengthen the education of Taiwanese businesses with regard to intellectual property rights and investment protections, and provide financing channels for Taiwanese businesses through Taiwanese-invested banks with branch offices in China. In the future, the government should strengthen links with the supply chains of Taiwanese businesses and to include overseas Taiwanese businesses as part of Taiwan’s industrial development plans. At the same time, it should fully realize the benefits of the ECFA and create a positive effect on Taiwan’s domestic economic development.

本研究為第一本運用數位人文學於政治學領域的研究著作，隨著電腦科技及網際網路的快速發展，過去許多僅能以紙本方式加以儲存的政府檔案與歷史文件，在經過電腦科技的輔助下完成數位化工作。數位化後的文檔即可提供研究者進一步研究與分析使用；對此，本研究採取文字探勘(Text-Mining)技術針對數位化後的資料進行論述分析(Discourse Analysis)，由於本研究的資料來源是奠基在數位化文本上透過文字探勘技術所進行的論述分析；因此本研究在此提出一種基於數位人文方法上的論述途徑:數位論述方法(Digital Discourse Analysis, DDA)。以此作為本研究重要的論述與分析基礎，具體的論述分析步驟與策略則採用Norman Fairclough的三段論述分析法，將文本、論述與社會行動加以聯結，並與數位論述分析法加以結合，發展出基於文本的五大分析步驟:總篇數與總字數分析、關鍵詞變化趨勢分析、情緒形容詞使用分析、論述策略使用分析、重大議題聯結分析以及政策論述策略圖像等五項具體分析步驟與架構。有了上述具體的研究步驟後，研究者將研究的對象至於國內四大報(自由時報、中國時報、蘋果日報以及聯合報)，2009-2014年六年間針對ECFA所做的新聞報導內容以及兩大黨(民主進步黨、中國國民黨)，2009-2014年六年間ECFA政策新聞稿及相關內容，進行論述分析。運用上述五個具體步驟，勾勒出臺灣四大報與兩大黨在針對ECFA進行報導與政策論述時的論述策略使用及語言使用模式。 研究結果顯示，四大報中，中國時報與聯合報對於ECFA的新聞報導內容與論述策略較為類似，皆為正向報導、弱監督式以及社會民生議題聯結度低的報導策略；相較之下，自由時報的報導策略則明顯與中國時報及聯合報不同，自由時報常以強監督式的方式進行報導，並且與社會民生議題的聯結程度較高。蘋果日報方面，ECFA新聞議題並非其報導的重要內容，但與另外三大報相比，蘋果日報的ECFA新聞報導與國際議題的聯結程度較高，也較關心到區域經濟整合等相關議題。在兩大黨方面，對於ECFA的政策論述皆以政治類與經貿類關鍵詞為主要論述主軸，國際以及社會民生議題則是因循著不同年度社會、政治經濟脈絡的不同而策略性的出現；另外，兩大黨的ECFA政策論述皆以內銷導向、國際與社會議題工具性出現、論述立場尚屬中立等共同特性，但較不一樣的是民主進步黨的ECFA政策論述具有高監督性、而中國國民黨的ECFA政策論述則具有高針對性與回應性的特質。除了上述的研究發現外，本研究最後研究者也將此次的研究嘗試與社會科學研究趨勢往「語言」、「論述」、「詮釋」轉向進行討論，以及2000年以後政治學所出現的「改造運動」(Perestroika Movement)進行認識論與方法論的討論。讓本研究成果不僅具有實證價值、更擁有與社會科學和政治學研究發展趨勢對話之效。 / This study is the first book applying digital humanities on Political Science research. After digitized document, that can provide research to do more and deeper analysis. This study used digitized document to do discourse analysis. Due to technology development I advocated a brand new analysis framework: Digital Discourse Analysis (DDA). Practical discourse analysis steps, I introduced Norman Fairclough's idea about: three steps of analysis, link text, discourse and social action. Basic on Fairclough's framework, I developed a five steps analysis: the total number of articles and number of words analysis, keywords trend analysis, emotional adjectives use analysis, discourse strategy use analysis, association analysis of major issues and policy discourse strategies image analysis. I found that the China Times and the United Daily News are more similar on ECFA news reports contents and policy discourse strategies. They usually positive reported, low level of supervised and weak linked to livelihood and social issues reported. On the contrary, Liberty Times was more supervised reported and higher degree of link to social and livelihood issues. As for Apple Daily, ECFA issue is not an important part of its news reported issues. Two major parties ECFA policy discourse have some similar characteristics: begin domestic policy discourse-oriented, international and social issues instrumental appear and discourse stand neutrality. On the other hand, Democratic Progressive Party ECFA policy discourse has more high supervisory; Kuomintang ECFA policy discourse has highly-targeted and responsive characteristics. In this study, the researcher will also discuss some new trend of social science research including of language turn, discourse turn and interpretation turn. And discuss Epistemology and Methodology issues after 2000 Perestroika Movement. So that make this research not only has the empirical research value, but also has the value of dialogue on political science and social science research trends.

台灣和中國大陸於2010年六月正式簽署「經濟合作架構協議」（ECFA）。無疑地，這是兩岸交流有史以來規模最大、最具官方性質的制度性協商。在象徵意義上，意味著兩岸經濟整合邁入一個嶄新的階段。在實質意義上，透過早期收穫計畫的制度安排，使得兩岸之間的部分貨品和服務享有關稅調降的特殊待遇，對於台灣的整體經濟和部分產業具有立即性的影響。因此，本文旨在探討兩岸簽署ECFA前後，台灣民眾的統獨態度有無發生變化？在影響選民統獨態度因素中，有長期穩定與短期變動，也有感性與理性面向，選民對於兩岸簽訂ECFA的經濟效應評估又扮演了何種角色？最後，隨著兩岸經濟整合的腳步加速，理性層次的麵包效應又是否可能抵銷情感認同的作用？ 本研究使用2008年到2012年「台灣選舉與民主化調查」的定群追蹤資料（panel data），並以「固定與隨機效果並用法」（hybrid method of fixed and random effect model）來分析兩個時間點民眾統獨立場的動態變化。研究結果發現從08年到12年這段時間，民眾的統獨立場呈現往現狀/統一方向移動的趨勢，儘管變化的量不大，但在統計上卻是顯著的。在兩個時間點的動態架構中，選民對於ECFA經濟效益評估的態度變化，不僅與統獨立場的變遷模式與變化方向互相連動，在控制其他變數之後，ECFA經濟評估的態度變化對於統獨立場也有獨立性的影響效果。最後，當短期經濟利益和情感認同相互牴觸時，ECFA經濟的效果甚至會削弱感性認同的作用力。這意味在給定台灣人認同沒有改變的情況下，民眾仍有可能因為簽署ECFA的經濟因素而移動其統獨立場。因此，隨著兩岸經濟整合日益加深，影響個人統獨態度中理性層面利害考量的因素應該予以重視。 / The Taiwanese government has signed the ECFA with China in June 2010. Undoubtedly, ECFA is one of the largest and most official institutional negotiations in the history of cross-strait interactions and exchanges. Signing ECFA with China not only represents that cross-strait economic integration has entered into a new stage, through the arrangements of early harvest program, its impacts on Taiwan’s economy and industry are also immediate. Accordingly, this study aims to explore whether Taiwan people’s attitude toward the independence/unification changed or not after signing ECFA? How the economic inducement from China affect Taiwanese voters’ policy stances on independence/unification issue? Finally, as the accelerated pace of cross-strait economic integration, whether economic factors such as ECFA evaluation may offset the effects of emotional identity on the issue of independence/unification? By using individual panel data from ‘Taiwan Election and Democratization Study’ (TEDS), and taking advantage of hybrid method of fixed and random effect model, the empirical results show that respondents in 2012 are statistically significantly more inclined to maintain status quo or unification in comparison with their attitudes in 2008. Moreover, the attitudinal change of ECFA evaluation are not only systematically associated with the change of policy stance on independence/unification issue, it also reveals independent effect in the statistical model after controlling for other variables. Finally, although emotional affective identity is an important factor to determine public’s policy stances on the issue of Independence/Unification, its effects have begun to weaken especially when the economic interests are large and visible. The implication is that we shouldn’t underestimate the logic importance of political economy played in the trend of regional economic integration, and short-term economic fluctuations may have influence on long-term affective identity.

本研究では李登輝政権以降の台湾における対外経済政策の変化メカニズムを検討した。構造レベルからの入力である米国の台湾政策と台湾企業は、台湾政府に対して対中投資規制の緩和と直航便の開設を求めてきた。これに対して台湾政府は、強固な抵抗・不安定な抵抗・構造への順応という3つの反応をしてきた。これを決定付けるのは、政権基盤の強弱・政権の重心・政権基盤の強化策というユニットレベルの3つの変数であることを明らかにした。 / This study examines the mechanism of changing foreign economic policy of Taiwan. The U.S. Taiwan policy and Taiwanese businesses, which were the inputs from the structure level, had demanded Taiwanese government to ease restrictions regarding investment to PRC and to introduce direct cross-strait link. Taiwanese government's reactions can be divided into three, which are 'Strict Resistance,' 'Partial Resistance,' and 'Accommodation to Structure.' This study shows that 'Strangeness of Administration's Political Power Base,' 'Administration's Direction,' and 'Way of Enforcing Administration's Political Power Base,' which are unit level variables, had determined which reaction the government would take. / 博士(政治学) / Doctor of Political Science / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University