This doctoral thesis provides a set of studies of social influences on fertility timing. Swedish register data are used to link individuals to their parents and siblings, thereby allowing the study of impacts of family of origin, social background, and parental death on fertility. The Swedish Medical Birth Register is used to investigate the effect of mode of delivery on higher order births. The thesis consists of an introductory chapter with an overview of the consequences and predictors of the timing of childbearing, and a theoretical framework to explain these relationships. This chapter also includes a section where the contribution to existing knowledge, the relation of the findings to life course theory, and suggestion for further research are discussed. This chapter is followed by four original empirical studies. The first study applies sister and brother correlations to investigate and estimate the impact of family of origin on fertility. It shows that family of origin matters for fertility timing and final family size. The study also shows that the overall importance of family of origin has not changed over the approximately twenty birth cohorts that were studied. The second study introduces three dimensions of social background - occupational class, status, and education - into fertility research. It suggests that social background, independent of individuals’ own characteristics, matters for the timing of first birth and the risk of childlessness. The study also shows that different dimensions of social background should not be used interchangeably. The third study uses the Swedish Medical Birth Register to investigate the effect of mode of delivery on the propensity and birth interval of subsequent childbearing. It demonstrates that mode of delivery has an impact on the progression to the second and third births but that a first delivery by vacuum extraction does not reduce the propensity of subsequent childbearing to the same extent as a first delivery by emergency or elective caesarean section. The fourth study explores the effects of parental death on adult children's fertility. The findings reveal that parental death during reproductive ages can affect children’s fertility. The effects are moderated by the gender of the child and when in the life course bereavement occurs. The combined output of these four studies provides evidence that human fertility behavior is embedded in social relationships with kin and friends throughout life. Family of origin, social background, an older sibling's birth, and bereavement following parental death influence the adult child's fertility. These findings add knowledge to previous research on intergenerational and social network influences in fertility.

A Second Child in the Family - the Consequences of Changing Family and Fertility Patterns in the Czech Republic Anna Šťastná Abstract The theme of this study is the two-child family model and second order births in the context of a changing Czech society. The study investigates the conditions and context surrounding the birth of a second child and the general values associated with children and focuses on selected factors associated with the decision-making process surrounding having a second child including the factors that a woman takes into account when deciding whether to have another child. Furthermore, the author studies the determinants of having a second child in Czech society and the relationship between the likelihood of the birth of a second child and different micro-level covariates and attempts to provide an explanation of the processes acting upon second childbearing through interaction with education and partnerships/union dynamics. The thesis is divided into three thematic sections. Following the introductory chapters, the first part of the study addresses fertility patterns in the Czech Republic, societal conditions and theoretical concepts which deal with possible explanations for changing fertility behaviour. The second part of the study considers decision-making processes and value...

L'analyse démographique se déroule principalement dans un cadre de référence défini par des variables temporelles ; ce faisant, elle débouche sur des résultats mettant en évidence des régularités remarquables. Cette constatation pourrait laisser croire automatiquement à une valeur explicative substantielle des variables en cause. En fait, généralement, l'âge, la date ou le moment de naissance, par exemple, n'ont en eux-mêmes aucune vertu explicative, si ce n'est à travers des phénomènes physiologiques ou sociologiques, par exemple. En prenant le cas de la mortalité des personnes âgées, l'âge peut être, au moins en partie, considéré comme un proxy du processus physiologique du vieillissement. L'objectif principal de cette thèse est de voir si les méthodes des démographes pourraient se transposer en optant pour un cadre de référence non temporel qui serait régi par une variable éventuellement plus proche de causes en rapport avec un phénomène étudié. La réponse à cette question est affirmative. Sur un plan purement mathématique, tout cadre de référence composé de trois variables formant une combinaison linéaire et dont une est invariable individu par individu peut remplacer le cadre de référence temporel le plus classique où l'âge correspond au temps moins le moment de naissance et où le moment de naissance est invariant tout au long de la vie d'un individu. Ainsi, en va-t-il, par exemple, de la taille (ou du poids) des nourrissons, de leur taille (ou poids) à la naissance et de leur gain de taille (ou de poids) depuis la naissance. Des diagrammes de Lexis ont été construits en remplaçant le temps par la taille (ou le poids) des nourrissons ; le moment de naissance, par leur taille (ou leur poids) à la naissance et l'âge, par la variation de leur taille (ou de leur poids) depuis la naissance. Les cohortes se définissent non plus par rapport au moment de naissance, mais par rapport à la taille (ou au poids) de naissance. Ces diagrammes ont montré qu'il existe une relation négative entre le gain de taille durant la première année de vie et la taille à la naissance, mais qu'aucune relation de ce type n'était pas présente dans le cas du poids. L'équivalent d'une table d'extinction classique a été élaboré en remplaçant l'âge par le gain de taille (ou de poids). Par ailleurs, toujours en remplaçant l'âge par le gain de taille (ou de poids), des régressions logistiques ont permis d'identifier des variables ayant un effet significatif sur la croissance en taille ou en poids durant la première année de vie. Ces régressions ont notamment confirmé l'influence de la taille à la naissance sur le gain de taille et la non-influence du poids de naissance sur le gain de poids. Il est à noter que pour employer ces méthodes de la table ou de la régression, il faut en plus remplir certaines conditions ; si ce n'est pas le cas, il faut soit procéder à des adaptations, soit adopter des hypothèses supplémentaires, soit carrément renoncer à l'emploi de ces méthodes. La réflexion menée dans ce travail a suggéré d'enrichir la panoplie des méthodes de l'analyse démographique : à l'analyse transversale classique se concentrant sur une période et donc sur un couloir vertical du diagramme de Lexis, on peut adjoindre un autre type d'analyse transversale portant cette fois sur un couloir horizontal. Si cette nouvelle perspective d'analyse est sans intérêt pratique avec le cadre de référence classique en temps, elle pourrait donner lieu à l'établissement de résultats dignes d'intérêt en cas de cadre de référence autre. Par ailleurs, ce travail aura aussi montré en quoi, dans certaines circonstances, la corrélation et la régression pourraient avoir intérêt à intégrer la notion de cohorte. Si ce travail montre que le cadre de référence temporel n'est pas le seul envisageable, il ne débouche nullement sur la conclusion que ce cadre classique est à abandonner définitivement au profit d'autres. En effet, les variables temporelles présentent des spécificités qui les rendent particulièrement efficaces pour organiser une analyse.

The proportional hazards model developed by Cox (1972) is by far the most widely used method for regression analysis of censored survival data. Application of the Cox model to more general event history data has become possible through extensions using counting process theory (e.g., Andersen and Borgan (1985), Therneau and Grambsch (2000)). With its development based entirely on counting processes, Aalen’s additive risk model offers a flexible, nonparametric alternative. Ordinary least squares, weighted least squares and ridge regression have been proposed in the literature as estimation schemes for Aalen’s model (Aalen (1989), Huffer and McKeague (1991), Aalen et al. (2004)). This thesis develops data-driven parameter selection criteria for the weighted least squares and ridge estimators. Using simulated survival data, these new methods are evaluated against existing approaches. A survey of the literature on the additive risk model and a demonstration of its application to real data sets are also provided. / Thesis (Master, Mathematics & Statistics) -- Queen's University, 2007-07-18 22:13:13.243

Despite the Family Code of 2000 that raised the legal age at marriage to 18 for both sexes; early family formation is still a common practice which affect many children in Ethiopia. Previous research has shown that girls in rural areas are more disadvantaged and suffer the consequences of early marriage the most. The purpose of this thesis is to study the risk factors for early marriage for both girls and boys in an urban area, Shashemene. Also, using longitudinal data, trends in early family formation between 1973 and 2008 have been analyzed with an event history approach. The data were collected as part of the project “Changing Ethiopia: Urban livelihood, gender, and ethnicity in Shashemene after 35 years: A case study”. The discrete-time complementary log-log regression estimates have provided evidence of gender inequality in early marriage formations, showing that girls are more prone to experience early marriage than boys. While area of birth (rural-urban) has no direct impact on the risk of early marriage, it is found that living in an urban area offsets the effect of area of birth, suggesting a selection process into migration. It is also found that school attendance decreases the likelihood of early marriage, while literacy has little effect. Moreover, among people living in Shashemene, religious affiliation has more impact on early marriage risks than ethnic identity and the first language. Finally, there was little evidence on period and cohort effects for early family formation.

This paper examines childbearing among Polish migrant women and their descendants in Sweden. While many studies have focused on immigrants' childbearing in relation to women in the destination country, this study uses a country-of-origin and a country-of-destination approach in order to more thoroughly examine the socialization, selection and adaptation hypotheses. Using a piecewise-exponential model, the transitions to first and second births are analyzed using Swedish register data and the Polish Generations and Gender survey (GGS). The results show that the Polish stayers and the first-generation have relatively similar fertility behavior in the transition to first birth but not in the transition to second birth. However, parts of the similarity in the transition to first birth can be attributed to marital status selection. By examining the 1.5-generation and the second-generation in relation to Swedish natives, it is possible to see fertility convergence across generations, both when it comes to timing and quantum. This study also shows that family migrants have higher risk of having a first child compared to migrants moving for other reasons. However, in the transition to second birth, there is no difference.

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本論文主要目地是在研究財務比率對上市公司發生下市事件之預測。我們運用歷史事件研究法和Cox迴歸模型去研究上市公司發生下市事件之原因。同時，我們也針對Cox迴歸模型和Logit模型在發現對下市事件有顯著影響的財務比率作比較。 / This study applies the event history analysis and the Cox regression model to examine the causes of firm delisting, and also compares the performance of the Cox regression model with that of the logit model in detecting factors that have a statistically significant impact on the delisting event. The empirical results show that the hazard rate of firm delisting increases with the ratio of current liabilities to current assets, a binary variable indicating if the total liabilities of a firm is greater than its total assets, and a binary variable indicating if the net income of a firm was negative for the last two quarters, while the hazard rate of firm delisting decreases with increases in the firm size and the ratio of funds provided by operations to total liabilities.

Organizations play key roles in modern societies. The importance of organizations for a society requires an understanding of organizations. In order to fully understand public organizations, it is necessary to recognize how organizational settings affect subjects of organizations and organizing. Although public and private organizations interrelate with each other, the two types are not identical. In this dissertation, I attempt to describe public organizations in their own setting by discussing three important topics in public organization theory: (1) innovation adoption in the public sector; (2) representative bureaucracy; and (3) decline and death of public organizations. In Chapter II, I scrutinize early adoption of innovations at the organizational level and explore which public organizations become early adopters in the diffusion process. The adoption of an innovation is directly related to the motivation to innovate. That is, organizations performing poorly will have a motivation to seek new solutions. I estimate the strength of the motivation by observing prior performance. The main finding of the second chapter is that performance-based motivation has a twofold impact on early innovation adoption: negative for organizations with low performance, but positive for those with very high performance. This study estimates top 3.8% as the turning point defining which organizations attain outstanding performance and show the positive relationship between performance and innovation adoption. In Chapter III, develop a theoretical framework for predicting and explaining active representation in bureaucracy and test two hypotheses from the framework to test its validity. First, active representation requires the loss of organizational rewards. Second, a minority group mobilizes external support to minimize the cost of active representation. These findings support that active representation is a political activity in which bargaining between formal and informal roles occurs. In addition, I add evidence to the literature demonstrating that the two prerequisites – policy discretion and a critical mass – must be satisfied for active representation to occur. In Chapter IV, I argue that organizational change is a result of a relationship between an organization and the environment. And, I suggest and advance the theory of organizational ecology for examining environment effect on organizational decline and death. The theory has been extensively studies in the business sector, so I advance the theory to be applicable to the public sector. First, I add political variables, such as change in the executive branch and the legislature, unified government, and hypothesize that (1) an organization established by a party other than the one in the executive branch in any given year will be more likely to be terminated or decline; that (2) an organization established by a party other than the one in the legislature in any given year will be more likely to be terminated or decline; and that (3) if an unfriendly party controls both the executive branch and the legislature, organizations established by other parties are more likely to be terminated or decline. Second, the effect of the economic environment on the life cycle of public organizations is not as straightforward and simple as their effect on business firms.

The distribution of the population has multiple implications on regional development and planning. In-migration is frequently seen as the only possible solution in order to rejuvenate the population and stimulate regional development in sparsely populated regions. A population increase results in greater tax revenues, meaning that local authorities can plan for their inhabitants and expenditures in a more sufficient way. In addition, certain professionals are needed in order to support essential local services such as schools and hospitals. Place marketing with the intention of attracting in-movers has become increasingly popular, especially for rural, sparsely populated Swedish municipalities. Still, the outcome from place marketing efforts are dubious and in addition, migration has a temporal aspect and individual migration propensity usually fluctuates over time. This begs the question – how long do in-movers stay? Is there potential for long lasting development in sparsely populated regions connected to in-movers or is it temporary? This study focuses on the duration of time until an in-mover re-migrates from Region 8 in northern Sweden and which socioeconomic and demographic factors that influences the out- migration. This is studied by applying an event history method with discrete-time logistic regressions. The study follows individuals in working age that moved to any of nine specified municipalities in Västerbotten and Norrbotten County, sometime between 2000 and 2011. Questions posed for the study is: i) On average, how long did people who moved to Region 8 between the years 2000-2011 stay in the region? ii) What are the socioeconomic and demographic factors that influence the out-migration from the region? iii) Do the influencing factors differ between women and men? The results show that the time perspective matters as the risk of moving out was highest in the initial years and that it declines with time. 30 % of the sampled in-movers had moved out again within the time of observation, and on average the in-movers stayed for nine years. The regression results indicated that the factors that had the greatest influence on the out- migration was unemployment, being between 20-26 years old, high education, having and unemployed partner, and having children below school age. Women had a slightly lower likelihood of moving out compared to men, and the most prominent influential factor to outmigration that varied between women and men was unemployment.