Cette thèse comporte trois essais en macroéconomie en économie ouverte et commerce international. Je considère tour à tour les questions suivantes: sous quelles conditions est-il optimal pour un pays de former une union économique? (essai 1); l'augmentation de la dispersion transversale des avoirs extérieurs nets des pays est-elle compatible avec une dispersion relativement stable des taux d'investissement? (essai 2); le risque de perte de marché à l'exportation du fait de l'existence des zones de commerce préférentiel joue t-il un rôle dans la décision des pays exclus de négocier des accords commerciaux à leur tour? (essai 3). Le premier essai examine les conditions d'optimalité d'une union économique. Il s'intéresse à une motivation particulière: le partage du risque lié aux fluctuations du revenu. Dans la situation initiale, les pays ont très peu d'opportunités pour partager le risque à cause des frictions: les marchés financiers internationaux sont incomplets et il n'y pas de mécanisme pour faire respecter les contrats de crédit entre pays. Dans ce contexte, une union économique apparait comme un arrangement qui pallie à ces frictions entre les pays membres seulement. Cependant, l'union dans son ensemble continue de faire face à ces frictions lorsqu'elle échange avec le reste du monde. L'arbitrage clé dans le modèle est le suivant. D'un coté, l'intégration économique permet un meilleur partage du risque entre pays membres et la possibilité pour le partenaire pauvre d'utiliser la ligne de crédit du partenaire riche en cas de besoin. De l'autre coté, l'union peut faire face à une limite de crédit plus restrictive parce que résilier la dette extérieure est moins coûteux pour les membres l'union. De plus, le fait que le partenaire pauvre peut utiliser la limite de crédit du partenaire riche génère une externalité négative pour ce dernier qui se retrouve plus fréquemment contraint au niveau des marchés internationaux des capitaux. En conformité avec les faits observés sur l'intégration économique, le modèle prédit que les unions économiques sont relativement peu fréquentes, sont plus susceptibles d'être créées parmi des pays homogènes, et généralement riches. Le deuxième essai porte sur la dispersion des avoirs extérieurs nets et la relation avec la dispersion des taux d'investissement. Au cours des récentes décennies, la dispersion croissante des déséquilibres extérieurs et les niveaux record atteints par certaines grandes économies ont reçu une attention considérable. On pourrait attribuer ce phénomène à une réduction des barrières aux mouvements internationaux des capitaux. Mais dans ce cas, il est légitime de s'attendre à une augmentation de la dispersion au niveau des taux d'investissement; ceci, parce que le financement des besoins en investissements constitue une raison fondamentale pour laquelle les pays échangent les capitaux. Les données indiquent cependant que la dispersion des taux d'investissement est restée relativement stable au cours des récentes décennies. Pour réconcilier ces faits, je construis un modèle d'équilibre général dynamique et stochastique où les pays sont hétérogènes en raison des chocs idiosyncratiques à leurs niveaux de productivité totale des facteurs. Au niveau des marchés internationaux des capitaux, le menu des actifs disponibles est restreint à une obligation sans risque et il n'y a pas de mécanisme pour faire respecter les contrats de crédit entre pays. A tout moment, un pays peut choisir de résilier sa dette extérieure sous peine d'exclusion financière et d'un coût direct. Ce coût direct reflète les canaux autres que l'exclusion financière à travers lesquels les pays en défaut sont pénalisés. Lorsque le modèle est calibré pour reproduire l'évolution de la dispersion transversale des avoirs extérieurs nets, il produit une dispersion relativement stable des taux d'investissement. La raison principale est que les incitations que les pays ont à investir sont liées à la productivité. Avec l'intégration financière, même si les opportunités d'emprunt se sont multipliées, les incitations à investir n'ont pas beaucoup changé. Ce qui permet de générer une dispersion accrue de la position des avoirs extérieurs nets des pays avec une dispersion relativement stable des taux d'investissement. Le troisième essai analyse un aspect de l'interdépendance dans la formation des accords commerciaux préférentiels: j'examine empiriquement si le risque de diversion des exportations en faveur des pays membres des zones de commerce préférentiel est un facteur déterminant dans la décision des pays exclus de ces accords de négocier un accord à leur tour. Je construis un indicateur qui mesure le potentiel de diversion des exportations auquel font face les pays et estime un modèle probit de formation des zones de commerce préférentiel créées entre 1961 et 2005. Les résultats confirment que les pays confrontés à un plus grand potentiel de détournement des échanges sont plus susceptibles de former une zone de commerce préférentiel à leur tour. / This thesis consists of three essays in open economic macroeconomics and international trade. I consider the following questions: Which countries find it individually optimal to form an economic union? (essay 1); is the rising cross-sectional dispersion in net foreign asset positions consistent with a relatively stable dispersion in investment rates? (essay 2); is the risk of trade diversion due to existing preferential trade areas an important factor in excluded countries decision to seek one? (essay 3). The first essay studies the individual optimality of economic integration. It emphasizes the risk-sharing benefits of economic integration. In an initial situation, countries have very limited possibilities to share idiosyncratic endowment risk because of financial frictions: international financial markets are incomplete and contracts not enforceable. A union is an arrangement that solves both the market incompleteness and the lack of enforcement problems among member countries. The union as a whole still faces these frictions when trading in the world economy. The model emphasizes the following key trade-off. There are two benefits from economic integration: better risk-sharing among member countries and the possibility for poor partners to use the rich partners' credit lines. The costs are the following: borrowing limits become tighter because defaulting on international debt becomes less costly for union partners. Since poor partners may benefit from the rich partner's credit limit, this generates a negative externality: rich partners will find themselves more often borrowing-constrained in a union compared to standing alone in the world economy. Consistently with evidence on economic integration, the model predicts that economic unions occur relatively infrequently and are more likely to emerge among homogeneous and rich countries. The rising dispersion of external imbalances over the recent decades and the record-high levels reached by some major economies has received considerable attention during the recent years. The second essay focuses on one of such imbalances: the net foreign asset positions (NFA). One can view this rising dispersion as a consequence of the reduction in barriers to capital flows. But in such case, one would expect the dispersion in investment rates to go up as well because one fundamental reason countries borrow and lend internationally is to finance their investments needs. Instead, the dispersion in investment rates was relatively stable. To explain this puzzling fact, I undertake a quantitative analysis of the global dispersion of net foreign asset positions and investment rates. The framework is an integrated model of world economy where countries differences arise from idiosyncratic shocks to their total factor productivity levels. International capital flows is restricted: the menu of assets traded is exogenously restricted to a risk-free bond, and international lending contracts are not legally enforceable. At any time, a country may choose to repudiate its foreign debt subject to financial exclusion and an output cost. The output cost captures margins other than financial exclusion through which defaulting countries can be punished. When calibrated to match the evolution of the cross-sectional dispersion in net foreign asset positions, the model produces a relatively stable dispersion in investment rates. The reason is because the incentives to invest are related to the productivity, not to the borrowing and lending opportunities. Although the opportunities to borrow and lend internationally have increased, the incentives to invest have not changed much, thereby generating a large cross-sectional dispersion in NFA positions with a relatively stable dispersion in investment rates. The third essay investigates empirically whether the risk of trade diversion faced by countries excluded from preferential trade areas (PTA) is determinant in their decision to seek a preferential trade agreement. Using the trade complementarity index, I derive a measure of the potential of trade diversion and estimate a probit model of the formation of PTAs between 1961 and 2005. The results show that country-pairs facing a larger potential of trade diversion are more likely to form a PTA in the future.

The impetus for regional integration draws its rationale from the standard international trade theory, which states that free trade is beneficial to all. Free trade among two or more countries or preferential trade will improve the welfare of the member countries as long as the arrangement leads to a net trade creation in the Vinerian sense. The history of regional economic integration in Southern Africa (SADC) reveals that it has not yet achieved the economic benefits that are attributable to developing regions, namely: higher levels of welfare exemplified by low poverty levels, economic development and industrialisation. Regional economic integration in Southern Africa is constrained by high tariff and non-tariff barriers, archaic infrastructures and multiple memberships among different regional economic communities. A SADC-wide customs union can be successful, provided that countries are allowed to join, when their economies have adjusted and the South African Customs Union (SACU) is used as a nucleus. / Economics / M. A. (Economics)

No abstract available / Political Sciences / M. A. (International Politics)

The study utilizes regional integration theories like neo-functionalism, intergovernmentalism and new regionalism to analyse the formation, structure and transformation of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). It examines the role of ECOWAS as a sub-regional economic body and its transformation to a political and security body dealing with sub-regional conflict resolution. Though neo-functionalism is generally analysed in reference to European regional integration, the study attempts to draw some lessons from this theory. Also, new regionalism theory is utilized to examine the transformation of ECOWAS from a mere economic body to a security and political entity. Regionalism in West Africa was initially geared towards mere economic cooperation; however, the emergence of ECOWAS on the scene and its subsequent transformation witnessed several changes towards the path of security cooperation. Despite its involvement with the gigantic political and security related activities, a general evaluation of economic integration in West Africa depicts a low level of progress. The poor state of sub-regional economic integration shows that ECOWAS did not complete its regional economic integration agenda before diverting to other sectors of integration. ECOWAS peacekeeping operations have been the dominant topic in sub-regional conflict resolution in West Africa. However, other forms of conflict resolution, including mediation, negotiation, conciliation and arbitration have been severally utilized. Also, in some of the cases, peacekeeping operations have been deployed only after other peaceful efforts have failed. ECOWAS peacekeeping operations are divergent operations with different forms and mandates. Therefore, they are better analysed under the framework of peacekeeping, peace-enforcement and peace-making theories. ECOWAS peacekeeping operations have been a subject of debate by proponents of the principle of non-interference and those of the responsibility to protect. The expediency of military intervention for humanitarian reasons as well as the prevention of genocide, war crimes and catastrophic loss of lives has questioned the principle of non-interference and validated the principle of responsibility to protect. / Political Sciences / D. Litt. et Phil. (International Politics)

Doctorat en sciences sociales, politiques et économiques / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The dissertation deals with the conflict over the EU Services Directive which is also known as the Bolkestein Directive. The general liberalisation and deregulation of the services markets in the EU has known the greatest politicisation of an EU issue ever seen in the history of European politics. It mobilised a wide range of political actors, including unions, diverse associations and citizen groups in several member states of the EU as well as in Brussels. The Commissioner for the internal market Frits Bolkestein and the directive proposal adopted in January 2004 have come to epitomize the neoliberal face of European integration. Due to its connection with the Eastern enlargement in May 2004 and with the ratification of the European constitutional treaty in France and The Netherlands in 2005, the directive proposal on services liberalization triggered a general debate over the economic and social nature of the EU polity far beyond a mere matter of public policy. After three years of debate and mobilization, the directive proposal was substantially amended in the European Parliament and clear limitations were put to liberalization of the services of general interest and to market deregulation.<p>\ / Doctorat en Sciences politiques et sociales / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The aim of the thesis is to further explore the relationship between economic integration and firm mobility and investment, both from an empirical and a theoretical perspective, with the objective of drawing conclusions on how government policy can be used to strengthen the positive impact of integration on investment, which is crucial in moving and maintaining countries at the forefront of the technology frontier and accelerating economic growth in a world of rapid technical change and high mobility of ideas, goods, services, capital and labor.<p>The first chapter aims to bring together the literature on economic integration, firm mobility and investment. It contains two sections: one dedicated to the literature on FDI and the second covering the literature on firm entry and exit, economic performance and economic and business regulation.<p>In the second chapter I examine the relationship between the Single Market and FDI both in an intra-EU context and from outside the EU. The empirical results show that the impact of the Single Market on FDI differs substantially from one country to another. This finding may be due to the functioning of institutions.<p>The third chapter studies the relationship between the level of external trade protection put into place by a Regional Integration Agreement(RIA)and the option of a firm from outside the RIA block to serve the RIA market through FDI rather than exports. I find that the level of external trade protection put in place by the RIA depends on the RIA country's capacity to benefit from FDI spillovers, the magnitude of set-up costs of building a plant in the RIA and on the amount of external trade protection erected by the country from outside the reigonal block with respect to the RIA.<p>The fourth chapter studies how the firm entry and exit process is affected by product market reforms and regulations and impact macroeconomic performance. The results show that an increase in deregulation will lead to a rise in firm entry and exit. This in turn will especially affect macroeconomic performance as measured by output growth and labor productivity growth. The analysis done at the sector level shows that results can differ substantially across industries, which implies that deregulation policies should be conducted at the sector level, rather than at the global macroeconomic level. / Doctorat en sciences économiques, Orientation économie / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Doctorat en sciences sociales, politiques et économiques / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Le Vietnam du Doi Moi poursuit sa libéralisation économique tout en consolidant le système politique hérité du marxisme-léninisme. Ce paradoxe influence considérablement son processus d'intégration économique internationale et se manifeste particulièrement dans le commerce des services. La manière dans laquelle le Vietnam reconnaît le principe de non-discrimination via les traités bilatéraux, plurilatéraux et multilatéraux, tant sous l'angle du commerce des services que sous l'angle de l'investissement, le prouve. Par ailleurs, dans le souci d'accélérer le développement économique, d'importantes réformes relatives au droit des affaires ont supprimé des discriminations substantielles entre les opérateurs économiques. Cependant, en raison de l'insuffisance de l'adapatation structurelle, la mise en oeuvre du principe de non-discrimination pose toujours de nombreuses difficultés. / Vietnam of Doi Moi pursues economic liberalization while strengthening the political system initiated from Marxism-Leninism. This paradox significantly influences its international economic integration process and manifests itself especially in the domain of trade in services. This is demonstrated by the manner in which Vietnam recognizes the principle of non-discrimination, through bilateral, plurilateral and multilateral agreements, in trade in services as well as in investements. Besides, in order to accelerate economic development, important reforms on business law have removed substancial discriminations between economic operators. However, the insufficient ajustement on structural matters still poses many problems for the implementation of the principle of non-discrimonation.

This contribution analyzes the role fulfilled by International Labor Standards and, specifically, by social clauses in Free Trade Conventions and Agreements, as a way of preventing social dumping and building a social dimension in the globalization and regionalization of economy. The author offers the case of the MERCOSUR Labor and Social Declaration, issued in 2015, which amends that of the year 1998, studying its contents, legal efficacy and supervision mechanisms. He emphasizes the fact that social charters generally limit themselves to recognizing fundamental or basic labor rights already found in the legislation of the member countries, but which are nonetheless useful for hindering attempts to deregulate or relax social and labor provisions. / En la presente contribución, se analiza el rol que cumplen las Normas Internacionales del Trabajo y en particular las cláusulas sociales en los Tratados y Acuerdos de Libre Comercio, como forma de evitar el dumping social y c onstruir u na d imensión s ocial e n l a g lobalización, mundialización y regionalización de la economía. El autor expone el caso de la Declaración Social Laboral del MERCOSUR, aprobada en el 2015, que revisa la sancionada en el año 1998, estudiando su contenido, su eficacia jurídica y los mecanismos de contralor. Destaca que las Cartas sociales generalmente se limitan a reconocer derechos laborales fundamentales o básicos que ya se encuentran contemplados en los ordenamientos de los países que se integran, pero que igualmente sirven para poner un freno alos intentos de desregular o flexibilizar la normativa socio-laboral.