No description available.

For the west coast of North America, from northern California to southern Washington, a habitat suitability prediction framework was developed to support wave energy device siting. Concern that wave energy devices may impact the seafloor and benthos has renewed research interest in the distribution of marine benthic invertebrates and factors influencing their distribution. A Bayesian belief network approach was employed for learning species-habitat associations for Rhabdus rectius, a tusk-shaped marine infaunal Mollusk. Environmental variables describing surficial geology and water depth were found to be most influential to the distribution of R. rectius. Water property variables, such as temperature and salinity, were less influential as distribution predictors. Species-habitat associations were used to predict habitat suitability probabilities for R. rectius, which were then mapped over an area of interest along the south-central Oregon coast. Habitat suitability prediction models tested well against data withheld for crossvalidation supporting our conclusion that Bayesian learning extracts useful information available in very small, incomplete data sets and identifies which variables drive habitat suitability for R. rectius. Additionally, Bayesian belief networks are easily updated with new information, quantitative or qualitative, which provides a flexible mechanism for multiple scenario analyses. The prediction framework presented here is a practical tool informing marine spatial planning assessment through visualization of habitat suitability. / Graduation date: 2012

El objetivo de esta tesis es avanzar en el conocimiento de la dinámica ecológica de la almeja fina nativa de Europa, Ruditapes decussatus, y la almeja japonesa introducida, Ruditapes philippinarum. Se estudian aspectos relevantes de la dinámica ecológica que requerían ser investigados, tales como la expansión de almeja japonesa, la interacción competitiva, la dispersión larvaria y reclutamiento o la estimación de la talla mínima de captura. A la vez se explora la idoneidad de una metodología de muestreo para la evaluación continua de estas poblaciones en estuarios de gran extensión. Para el desarrollo de estos estudios se realizaron muestreos y experimentos de las especies objetivo en el ámbito de estudio y se llevaron a cabo los análisis de laboratorio asociados a los mismos. Además, se desarrollaron y se aplicaron modelos ecológicos predictivos. Los resultados de la tesis proveen información y herramientas para apoyar los modelos de gestión del marisqueo de las especies estudiadas tanto, en general, para los estuarios donde están presentes y son explotadas como, en particular, para la Bahía de Santander. / The objective of the thesis is to advance in the understanding of ecological dynamics of the European native grooved carpet shell clam Ruditapes decussatus and the introduced Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum. Ecologically relevant aspects requiring investigation, such as the expansion of the Manila clam, competitive interaction, larval dispersal and recruitment or suitable specific catch size have been investigated. Moreover, the suitability of a sampling methodology for the assessment of these clam populations in large estuaries have been evaluated. For this purpose, field surveys, laboratory procedures and field experiments have been conducted, together with the development and application of ecological predictive models. The results of this thesis provide information and tools to support the studied species fishery management models both in general, for the estuaries where these species dwell and exploited and, in particular, for the Bay of Santander.

No description available.

The coastal fox or Sechura’s fox, whose scientific name is Lycalopex sechurae, is distributed among the areas of Ecuador’s northwest and the central coast of Peru. There is still little information about the biology of coastal fox and its role in ecosystems that are part of its habitat. Today the coastal fox habitat is under a state of fragmentation by human intervention. In this research, synthesized information about biological, ecological and geographical distribution of coastal fox is presented; with the status of threat and persecution, so conservation strategies are required, and this research focused on propose ecological corridors. The Corridor Designer, an extension of ArcGIS tools, could standardize the resolution of natural, anthropogenic, trophic and protective variables, and with those variables an habitat suitability between the ACP Chaparrí and the ACR Huacrupe La Calera was obtained, which are connected from the design of two different ecological corridors, concluding that both are functional, although the first result of corridor would become more efficient and potential to put into the practice and reality. / El zorro costeño o zorro de Sechura, cuyo nombre científico es Lycalopex sechurae, se distribuye entre las zonas del noroeste de Ecuador y la costa central del Perú. Aún existe poca información sobre la biología del zorro costeño y su papel dentro de los ecosistemas que forman parte de su hábitat. En la actualidad el hábitat del zorro costeño está bajo una situación de fragmentación por la intervención antrópica. En esta investigación se presenta la información sintetizada de las características biológicas, ecológicas y distribución geográfica del zorro costeño, dentro de la cual se conoció su estado de amenaza y persecución, por lo cual se requieren estrategias de conservación, siendo el enfoque central la propuesta de corredores ecológicos. A partir de la herramienta Corridor Designer, una extensión de ArcGIS, se pudo uniformizar la resolución de las variables naturales, antrópicas, tróficas y de protección, con las cuales se obtuvo una aptitud de hábitat entre el ACP Chaparrí y el ACR Huacrupe La Calera, las que se conectaron a partir del diseño de dos diferentes corredores ecológicos, llegando a la conclusión de que ambos son funcionales, aunque el primer resultado de corredor vendría a ser más eficiente y potencial para llevarlo a la práctica y a la realidad.

No description available.

In this thesis a number of statistical methods have been developed and applied to habitat suitability modelling for rare and threatened species. Data available on these species are typically limited. Therefore, developing these models from these data can be problematic and may produce prediction biases. To address these problems there are three aims of this thesis. The _rst aim is to develop and implement frequentist and Bayesian statistical modelling approaches for these types of data. The second aim is develop and implement expert elicitation methods. The third aim is to apply these novel approaches to Australian rare and threatened species case studies with the intention of habitat suitability modelling. The _rst aim is ful_lled by investigating two innovative approaches for habitat suitability modelling and sensitivity analysis of the second approach to priors. The _rst approach is a new multilevel framework developed to model the species distribution at multiple scales and identify excess zeros (absences outside the species range). Applying a statistical modelling approach to the identi_cation of excess zeros has not previously been conducted. The second approach is an extension and application of Bayesian classi_cation trees to modelling the habitat suitability of a threatened species. This is the _rst `real' application of this approach in ecology. Lastly, sensitivity analysis of the priors in Bayesian classi_cation trees are examined for a real case study. Previously, sensitivity analysis of this approach to priors has not been examined. To address the second aim, expert elicitation methods are developed, extended and compared in this thesis. In particular, one elicitation approach is extended from previous research, there is a comparison of three elicitation methods, and one new elicitation approach is proposed. These approaches are illustrated for habitat suitability modelling of a rare species and the opinions of one or two experts are elicited. The _rst approach utilises a simple questionnaire, in which expert opinion is elicited on whether increasing values of a covariate either increases, decreases or does not substantively impact on a response. This approach is extended to express this information as a mixture of three normally distributed prior distributions, which are then combined with available presence/absence data in a logistic regression. This is one of the _rst elicitation approaches within the habitat suitability modelling literature that is appropriate for experts with limited statistical knowledge and can be used to elicit information from single or multiple experts. Three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression are compared, one of which is the questionnaire approach. Included in this comparison of three elicitation methods are a summary of the advantages and disadvantages of these three methods, the results from elicitations and comparison of the prior and posterior distributions. An expert elicitation approach is developed for classi_cation trees, in which the size and structure of the tree is elicited. There have been numerous elicitation approaches proposed for logistic regression, however no approaches have been suggested for classi_cation trees. The last aim of this thesis is addressed in all chapters, since the statistical approaches proposed and extended in this thesis have been applied to real case studies. Two case studies have been examined in this thesis. The _rst is the rare native Australian thistle (Stemmacantha australis), in which the dataset contains a large number of absences distributed over the majority of Queensland, and a small number of presence sites that are only within South-East Queensland. This case study motivated the multilevel modelling framework. The second case study is the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The application and sensitivity analysis of Bayesian classi_cation trees, and all expert elicitation approaches investigated in this thesis are applied to this case study. This work has several implications for conservation and management of rare and threatened species. Novel statistical approaches addressing the _rst aim provide extensions to currently existing methods, or propose a new approach, for identi _cation of current and potential habitat. We demonstrate that better model predictions can be achieved using each method, compared to standard techniques. Elicitation approaches addressing the second aim ensure expert knowledge in various forms can be harnessed for habitat modelling, a particular bene_t for rare and threatened species which typically have limited data. Throughout, innovations in statistical methodology are both motivated and illustrated via habitat modelling for two rare and threatened species: the native thistle Stemmacantha australis and the brush-tailed rock wallaby Petrogale penicillata.

L’écologie du Desman des Pyrénées (Galemys pyrenaicus), mammifère semi-aquatique endémique de la péninsule ibérique et des Pyrénées, demeure encore très peu connue. Les objectifs de cette thèse, dans le cadre d’un Plan National d’Actions, ont été d’identifier les variables environnementales agissant sur la répartition de l’espèce à différentes échelles spatiales, en considérant sa détectabilité imparfaite (i.e. fausses absences et fausses présences). Une probabilité de détection élevée, mais spatialement hétérogène à l’échelle des Pyrénées françaises, a été mise en évidence. La distribution du Desman des Pyrénées s’est également révélée spatialement structurée et majoritairement influencée par des facteurs propres aux milieux aquatiques, mais en forte régression depuis les années 80. Ces résultats ont permis de proposer des mesures de conservation pour cette espèce menacée. / The ecology of the Pyrenean desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), a small semi-aquatic mammal endemic to the Iberian Peninsula and the Pyrenees, remains still largely unknown. The aim of this PhD thesis conducted within the framework of a National Action Plan was to identify the environmental variables influencing the Desman distribution at various spatial scales, by accounting for its imperfect detection (i.e. false absences and false presences). A high, but spatially heterogeneous at the French Pyrenees extent, probability of detection was highlighted. The distribution of the Pyrenean Desman was also emphasized to be spatially structured and mainly influenced by aquatic factors, but severely contracting for the last 25 years. These results enabled to suggest conservation measures for this endangered species.

<p>Land use change constitutes a primary driving force in shaping social-ecological systems world wide, and its effects reach far beyond the directly impacted areas. Graph based landscape ecological tools have become established as a promising way to efficiently explore and analyze the complex, spatial systems dynamics of ecological networks in physical landscapes. However, little attention has been paid to making these approaches operational within ecological assessments, physical planning, and design. This thesis presents a network based, landscape-ecological tool that can be implemented for effective use by practitioners within physical planning and design, and ecological assessments related to these activities. The tool is based on an ecological profile system, a common generalized network model of the ecological infrastructure, graph theoretic metrics, and a spatially explicit, geographically defined representation, deployable in a GIS. Graph theoretic metrics and analysis techniques are able to capture the spatio-temporal dynamics of complex systems, and the generalized network model places the graph theoretic toolbox in a geographically defined landscape. This provides completely new insights for physical planning, and environmental assessment activities. The design of the model is based on the experience gained through seven real-world cases, commissioned by different governmental organizations within Stockholm County. A participatory approach was used in these case studies, involving stakeholders of different backgrounds, in which the tool proved to be flexible and effective in the communication and negotiation of indicators, targets, and impacts. In addition to successful impact predictions for alternative planning scenarios, the tool was able to highlight critical ecological structures within the landscape, both from a system-centric, and a site-centric perspective. In already being deployed and used in planning, assessments, inventories, and monitoring by several of the involved organizations, the tool has proved to effectively meet some of the challenges of application in a multidisciplinary landscape.</p>

Land use change constitutes a primary driving force in shaping social-ecological systems world wide, and its effects reach far beyond the directly impacted areas. Graph based landscape ecological tools have become established as a promising way to efficiently explore and analyze the complex, spatial systems dynamics of ecological networks in physical landscapes. However, little attention has been paid to making these approaches operational within ecological assessments, physical planning, and design. This thesis presents a network based, landscape-ecological tool that can be implemented for effective use by practitioners within physical planning and design, and ecological assessments related to these activities. The tool is based on an ecological profile system, a common generalized network model of the ecological infrastructure, graph theoretic metrics, and a spatially explicit, geographically defined representation, deployable in a GIS. Graph theoretic metrics and analysis techniques are able to capture the spatio-temporal dynamics of complex systems, and the generalized network model places the graph theoretic toolbox in a geographically defined landscape. This provides completely new insights for physical planning, and environmental assessment activities. The design of the model is based on the experience gained through seven real-world cases, commissioned by different governmental organizations within Stockholm County. A participatory approach was used in these case studies, involving stakeholders of different backgrounds, in which the tool proved to be flexible and effective in the communication and negotiation of indicators, targets, and impacts. In addition to successful impact predictions for alternative planning scenarios, the tool was able to highlight critical ecological structures within the landscape, both from a system-centric, and a site-centric perspective. In already being deployed and used in planning, assessments, inventories, and monitoring by several of the involved organizations, the tool has proved to effectively meet some of the challenges of application in a multidisciplinary landscape.