Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-26T14:01:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.pdf: 2018234 bytes, checksum: 43a78e55f7947551d68ec57851bddcc5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-07-08 / In this study, data collected on an industrial scale for some years, underwent modeling using generalized additive models (GAM) and artificial neural networks (ANN) as tools to evaluate the influence of some variables, timber and process on production and digester alkali charge. Generalized additive models were fitted using the software R (R Development Core Team, 2010), through the library "mgcv" (Wood, 2006), specific settings for generalized additive models. Significance tests were applied for each model set. In order to supplement the data were analyzed using artificial neural networks.One hundred RNA were adjusted to relate to production and the digester alkali charge, and variables such as wood density, age, precipitation, dry content of wood chips, bulk density of chips, the wood basic density, pulp viscosity and kappa. In this step we employed the software Statistica (Statsoft, Inc., 2007). The results show that the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) is a good choice to represent the phenomena of the pulp industry, where the variables are highly variable and there is strict control, unlike what happens on data from experimental designs. Should the use of RNA to estimate the output from the digester alkali charge and also proved a useful tool, since the correlations between actual and estimated data were above 88% and 60% respectively. Several variables associated with the raw material and the pulping process that were studied showed similar behavior and / or equal to what the majority of experimental studies have found. / No presente trabalho, dados observados em escala industrial, durante alguns anos, foram submetidos à modelagem empregando modelos aditivos generalizados (GAM) e redes neurais artificiais (RNA), como ferramentas para avaliar a influência de algumas variáveis, da madeira e do processo, sobre a produção do digestor e carga alcalina. Os modelos aditivos generalizados foram ajustados utilizando o software R (R DEVELOPMENT CORE TEAM, 2010), através da biblioteca “mgcv” (WOOD, 2006), específica para ajustes de modelos aditivos generalizados. Foram aplicados testes de significância para cada modelo ajustado. De forma complementar os dados foram analisados por meio de redes neurais artificiais. Foram ajustadas 100 RNA para relacionar a produção do digestor e a carga alcalina, com as variáveis: densidade da madeira, idade, precipitação, teor seco dos cavacos, densidade aparente dos cavacos, densidade básica dos cavacos, viscosidade da polpa e kappa. Nesta etapa do trabalho foi empregado o software Statistica (Statsoft, INC, 2007). Os resultados mostram que o Modelo Aditivo Generalizado (MAG) constitui uma boa opção para representar os fenômenos da indústria de celulose, em que as variáveis apresentam alta variabilidade e não há um rigoroso controle, diferentemente do que ocorre em dados provenientes de delineamentos experimentais. No caso do uso de RNA para estimar a produção do digestor e para carga alcalina também mostrou ser uma boa ferramenta, visto que as correlações entre os dados reais e estimados ficaram acima de 88% e 60%, respectivamente. Várias variáveis associadas com a matéria-prima e com o processo de polpação que foram estudadas apresentaram comportamento semelhante e/ou iguais o que a maioria dos estudos experimentais encontraram.

Esta dissertação apresenta um estudo ergonômico sobre o trabalho de operadores de processo de plataformas marítimas de produção de petróleo. As primeiras investigações sobre as atuais práticas e produtos finais de projetos de sistemas produtivos de grande porte resultaram em indícios de um ambiente de produção com aspectos operacionais não equilibrados e desintegrados. A partir destes indícios, foi realizada uma revisão bibliográfica que destacou as considerações e limitações de aspectos relacionados à Ergonomia em assuntos como gestão de projetos, projetos de engenharia, de sistemas produtivos e de arranjo físico. A revisão relativa à Ergonomia destacou seus conceitos básicos, a Ergonomia de Concepção e estudos relacionados ao trabalho de operadores de produção contínua, tendo o objetivo de indicar possibilidades de atuações desta ciência em projetos de plantas produtivas. Desta forma, a pesquisa de campo desenvolvida procurou destacar aspectos operacionais como dificuldades e constrangimentos enfrentados pelos operadores. Tais aspectos foram investigados com o objetivo de ressaltar os desequilíbrios presentes nesta situação de trabalho e as estratégias desenvolvidas por estes operadores para manterem o funcionamento satisfatório da unidade produtiva, atendendo aos objetivos da organização empresarial em que se inserem. / This work presents the ergonomics study based on offshore oil production platforms, in operation works for the process plant. The first investigations resulted on indications of disintegrated and unbalanced operational aspects into the production environment. From those evidences, the bibliographical revision indicated the considerations and limits of aspects related to Ergonomics in subjects as design management, engineering design, productive systems and layout design. The revision of Ergonomics included basic concepts, Ergonomics of Conception, and studies related to the operator works of continuous production process, having the aim of indicating participation possibilities of this science in production plants design. In such a way, the developed research tried to raise operational aspects as difficulties and constraints daily faced by operators. Such aspects were investigated intending to stand out the disequilibriums in this situation of work and strategies developed by these operators to keep satisfactory performance of a productive unit, taking care of company goals where they are inserted.

Submitted by Karla Malafaia (karlamalafaia@gmail.com) on 2013-02-26T23:31:57Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Karla_Malafaia_VF_posbanca.pdf: 730119 bytes, checksum: 82ceecb815ca22f5f1e5fee680caf839 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vera Lúcia Mourão (vera.mourao@fgv.br) on 2013-02-27T13:25:04Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Karla_Malafaia_VF_posbanca.pdf: 730119 bytes, checksum: 82ceecb815ca22f5f1e5fee680caf839 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-02-27T13:29:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Karla_Malafaia_VF_posbanca.pdf: 730119 bytes, checksum: 82ceecb815ca22f5f1e5fee680caf839 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-01-29 / Este trabalho se propõe a testar e quantificar a importância do investimento de longo prazo, captado pela série de desembolsos da linha BNDES Finem, na produção industrial brasileira. Através dos modelos de causalidade de Granger e Função resposta ao impulso, podemos verificar as respostas acumuladas ao longo de três anos da linha Finem a choques positivos de um desvio padrão nas variáveis inflação, produção industrial, spread, e, da mesma forma um choque na variável Finem com resposta nas variáveis acima descritas. Além disso, é possível identificar a importância do BNDES como um ator anticíclico em períodos de crise como na economia brasileira. Como resultado, encontramos que apesar dos desembolsos Finem não Granger causarem a produção industrial brasileira, se testadas em conjunto com dados de inflação e a diferença entre a Selic e a TJLP rejeita-se a hipótese nula de não causalidade a 1% de significância. Já os testes de funções de resposta ao impulso indicam que a taxa de crescimento da produção industrial tem resposta positiva a um choque de desvio padrão nos desembolsos de Finem. Contudo, se testada em conjunto um choque no Finem apesar de impactar positivamente a produção industrial acaba pressionando a inflação. / This work is to test and quantify the importance of a long-term investment captured by the series of disbursements of BNDES Finem line in brazilian industrial production. Through Granger causality and impulse-response function, it was possible to check the Finem line accumulated answers along three years to positive shocks of a standard deviation on the variables inflation, industrial production, spread, and a shock on Finem variable with answer on the previous described variables. Furthermore, it's possible to identify the BNDES's importance as a countercyclical tool in crisis period as in brazilian economy. As a result, we found that despite causing the brazilian industrial production, if the no Granger Finem's disbursements are tested with inflation data and the difference between Selic and TJLP, the null hypothesis of no causality at 1% of significance is rejected. Yet, the tests of impulse-response function indicate that the industrial production growth rate has positive answer to a shock of standard deviation on Finem's disbursements. However, despite impacting the industrial production positevely, it pressures the inflation if it's tested with a shock on Finem.

Abstract: The doctor's dissertation paper addresses the social problem, how business units should use the standard economic tools to prevent crisis. The importance of the problem is supported by the fact, that last year more than eleven thousand economic entities in the Czech Republic became insolvent. The Set of Tools for Corporate Crisis Prevention shall help to better adjust the internal control mechanisms, using which businesses could better prevent crisis. Application of this Set of Tools for Corporate Crisis Prevention is verified based on two completely different companies. The dissertation addresses the question of how use standard tools such as loan and leasing for crisis prevention, possibly secure the recovery of growth opportunities. This support is implemented by using an external financial institution, or the Intercompany bank. In the chapter entitled "intercompany bank", I describe the basic principles of operation and its importance for internal control. This internal organization has been used in many companies, but today is back to support the sales department and help reduce risk associated with the greater indebtedness of the company. I am describing the Intercompany bank in the context of internal processes and forms of cooperation with the sales department. Functionality of the intercompany bank is supplemented with examples from practice. The chapter called "Micro-enterprise approach of the crisis" is complemented by the complexity of internal financial perspective to company's management. This chapter describes three main sources of the company crisis from a microeconomic perspective. It is decreasing demand, the impact of interest rate exchanges on corporate governance and the impact of exchange rate changes on the financial stability of the company. The analytical part of presented dissertation thesis deals with development of insolvency proposal, bankruptcy, and reorganization proposals in The Czech Republic between 2008 and 2013. The main target is finding the causal dependences between insolvency requirements in the Insolvency Register and a few key macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, unemployment rate, industrial production growth and the amount of loans granted to the corporate sector. For a more comprehensive view of insolvency arrangement of The Czech Republic is accompanied by description of the legislative settings in The UK, Germany and France. Keywords: Bankruptcy proposals, Bankrupt, Company crisis, Exchange rate, Industrial production, Insolvency, Insolvency proposals, GDP, Leasing, Reorganization, Unemployment rate.

Lean Manufacturing (LM) en la actualidad, es una de las metodologías de trabajo más aplicadas en las compañías que buscan eliminar los desperdicios de la operación, en base a la filosofía de mejora continua. Esto con el fin de que sus procesos internos se vuelvan más esbeltos y por ende más eficientes. En el presente estudio se podrá apreciar cómo un modelo de mejora basado en la combinación de algunas herramientas Lean tales como VSM, SMED y Manufactura celular, puede ser aplicado para optimizar las operaciones de una empresa de supermercados que produce panes a gran escala y de manera automatizada. Los panes son elaborados en una planta de producción de alimentos, para luego ser distribuidos a las distintas sedes del supermercado en donde se produce la venta final del producto. Algunos de los beneficios más relevantes que se identificaron después de la implementación de este modelo son el ahorro de costos de operación y distribución; así como el cumplimiento de la cuota de producción inicialmente planteada para la línea de panadería. / Lean Manufacturing (LM) is currently one of the most applied work methodologies in companies seeking to eliminate waste from the operation, based on the philosophy of continuous improvement. This in order that their internal processes become more slender and therefore more efficient. In the present study it will be appreciated how an improvement model based on the combination of some Lean tools such as VSM, SMED and Cellular Manufacturing, can be applied to optimize the operations of a supermarket company that produces bread on a large scale and in a automated. The breads are made in a food production plant, and then they are distributed to the different branches of the supermarket where the final sale of the product takes place. Some of the most relevant benefits that were identified after the implementation of this model are savings in operating and distribution costs; as well as the fulfillment of the production quota initially set for the bakery line. / Trabajo de Suficiencia Profesional

本文使用共積檢定以及因果關係檢定方法，針對美國第三波購併風潮前後時期，檢定購併家數、股價及工業生產指數三個變數間的可預測性。不同以往的是，本文除了將購併風潮分段進行研究外，並以晚近由Hoornik 及Hendry（1997）以Johansen（1988）為基礎所發展的一套共積檢定法來檢定變數間的長期均衡關係，再以Toda and Phillips（1994）的因果關係檢定流程與SSW的因果關係檢定分別檢定出變數間的可預測性。 經由本文實證結果發現： （1）購併、股價及工業生產指數三個變數，在ADF單根檢定結果三變數皆呈I（1）非恆定時間數列。並進一步以共積檢定檢測出不論參變數或購併和股價兩變數模型，1967年第四季以前變數間皆有一共積關係存在，1968年以後則無任何共積關係。 （2）從因果關係檢定結果發現，三變數體系中，股價與工業生產指數兩變數間可能存在極高的線性重合現象，且子期間礙於無法取夠長的遞延期數，使得工業生產指數對其他變數的影響力無法明確地反應出來，故三變數模型無法正確的檢定購併風潮前後變數間的因果關係。 （3）在購併與股價變數間的因果關係檢定研究中發現，1948~1967年間，股價對購併存在可預測性；然而1968~1979年間，股價與購併完全不存在任何可預測性。故可知購併風潮前後，股價對購併的可預測性發生了變化，從1967年前股價可合理地預測購併活動，到1967年後股價卻完全無法預測購併的情況。 （4）對影響購併的諸多因素做進一步的考量，發現威廉法案的出現對當時購併案件有相當程度的衝擊。 從實證結果可知，以共積與因果關係檢定方法一再地證明出，購併風潮前後股價對購併活動的可預性確實發生了結構性的變化。 第一章 緒論 第一節 研究背景與動機………………………………………….1 第二節 研究目的………………………………………………….3 第三節 購併之定義及相關基本概念…………………………….4 第四節 研究架構與流程………………………………………….8 第二章 文獻回顧 第一節 理論文獻回顧……………………………………………10 第二節 實證研究文獻回顧………………………………………13 第三節 文獻回顧總結……………………………………………23 第三章 實證研究方法 第一節 單根檢定………………………………………………..24 第二節 共積檢定…………………………………………………28 第三節 因果關係檢定……………………………………………34 第四節 實證檢定流程……………………………………………40 第四章 實證結果 第一節 實證資料來源……………………………………………43 第二節 Augmented Dickey-Fuller單根檢定………………….44 第三節 共積檢定……………………………………………....49 第四節 因果關係檢定……………………………………………55 第五節 因果關係檢定結果………………………………………78 第五章 法律因素的考量 第一節 時代背景….……………………………………….……79 第二節 檢視法條之影響力……………………………………..81 第三節 從案例角度分析………………………………………..84 第四節 威廉法案的威力………………………………………..87 第六章 結論…………………………………………………………88 附錄圖表（一）：各變數資料圖….………………………………90 附錄圖表（二）：共積殘差項圖………………………………….93 參考文獻…………………………………………………………….96

The thesis describes and analyses the evolution of the Czech industry since the beginning of the economic transformation in 1990 till today and it forecasts it's likely further development. The chapter one presents a brief description of the Czech industrial sector in the 19th and the 20th centuries. The chapter n. 2 is dedicated to the evolution in 1980s, the last decade before the collapse of the centrally planned economy. The third chapter describes the transformation process in the beginning of the 1990s. It focuses on the privatization, which was the most important constituent of the economic transformation from the perspective of the Czech industry. Chapters n. 4 and 5 focus on the evolution and restructuration of the Czech industry in the 1990s and in the first decade of the new millennium. The biggest attention is paid to the international trade, foreign direct investments, industrial production, industrial workforce and changes of the industrial structure. Chapter n. 6 is devoted to the evolution in the past 1,5 year and it describes the evolution of the Czech industry in the context of the global economic recession. The last part of the thesis outlines the probable evolution of the Czech industry in the future.

The diploma thesis deals with an assessment of the economic situation of the selected limited liability company (hereinafter referred to as “PODNIK”) and introduces a number of proposals for its improvement. The company operates in the field of industrial filtration and manufactures custom technological complexes. Strategic analysis was used to evaluate external and internal factors that have an impact on the company. This evaluation reveals the strengths and weaknesses of the company and what opportunities and threats the company faces. The results put forward the proposals on the basis of which the economic situation of the company can improve.

[pt] O presente trabalho traz 6 diferentes técnicas de previsão para a variação mensal do Índice da Produção Industrial americana em 3 ambientes diferentes totalizando 18 modelos. No primeiro ambiente foram usados como variáveis explicativas a própria defasagem da variação mensal do Índice da produção industrial e outras 55 variáveis de mercado e de expectativa tais quais retornos setoriais, prêmio de risco de mercado, volatilidade implícita, prêmio de taxa de juros (corporate e longo prazo), sentimento do consumidor e índice de incerteza. No segundo ambiente foi usado à data base do FRED com 130 variáveis econômicas como variáveis explicativas. No terceiro ambiente foram usadas as variáveis mais relevantes do ambiente 1 e do ambiente 2. Observa-se no trabalho uma melhora em prever o IP contra um modelo AR e algumas interpretações a respeito do comportamento da economia americana nos últimos 45 anos (importância de setores econômicos, períodos de incerteza, mudanças na resposta a prêmio de risco, volatilidade e taxa de juros). / [en] This thesis presents 6 different forecasting techniques for the monthly variation of the American Industrial Production Index in 3 different environments, totaling 18 models. In the first environment, the lags of the monthly variation of the industrial production index and other 55 market and expectation variables such as sector returns, market risk premium, implied volatility, and interest rate risk premiums (corporate premium and long term premium), consumer sentiment and uncertainty index. In the second environment was used the FRED data base with 130 economic variables as explanatory variables. In the third environment, the most relevant variables of environment 1 and environment 2 were used. It was observed an improvement in predicting IP against an AR model and some interpretations regarding the behavior of the American economy in the last 45 years (importance of sectors, uncertainty periods, and changes in response to risk premium, volatility and interest rate).

This thesis explores the integration of IoT protocols to enhance supply chain efficiency and sustainability by developing a flexible automated system. The research covers the integration of a palletization optimizer with a flexible robotic platform, a project conducted in collaboration with OpiFlex and Linköping University. Flexibility and sustainability in production, particularly in the food and beverage industry, are critical yet challenging to achieve. This research addresses these challenges by proposing a system that aligns the output with customer needs by combining these technologies. The research employs a combination of case study and exploratory methodologies. The development approach synthesizes elements from Set-Based Design, Point-Based Design, and Agile development frameworks. The primary research questions focus on identifying the best system architecture for integrating the palletization optimizer with a lower-level automation platform and outlining the steps needed to transform this integration into a commercially viable product. The system includes the optimizer, capable of processing customer orders and configuring products on mixed output pallets, integrated with a flexible robotic system provided by OpiFlex. The work involved evaluating communication protocols, MQTT, OPC UA, and TCP/IP, and designing robust interactions and interfaces between the subsystems. The results demonstrate the system's architecture and interaction protocols.  The thesis concludes with a discussion of the results in comparison to the application scenario and the standards consulted. The conclusion is that the chosen interface practices should remain largely intact but be re-developed using an OPC UA-based architecture. The main reasons for this are its support for both pub/sub and client-server models, increased security, and greater support for enterprise application integration. However, depending on the specific application, the downsides of OPC UA may outweigh its benefits.