本研究以Lévy過程為模型基礎，考慮Merton Jump及跳躍強度服從Hawkes Process的Merton Jump兩種跳躍風險，利用Particle Filter方法及EM演算法估計出模型參數並計算出對數概似值、AIC及BIC。以S&P500指數為實證資料，比較隨機波動度模型、Variance Gamma模型及兩種不同跳躍風險對市場真實價格的配適效果。實證結果顯示，隨機波動度模型其配適效果勝於Variance Gamma模型，且加入跳躍風險後可使模型配適效果提升，尤其在模型中加入跳躍強度服從Hawkes Process的Merton Jump，其配適效果更勝於Merton Jump。整體而言，本研究發現，以S&P500指數為實證資料時，SVHJ模型有較好的配適效果。 / This paper, based on the Lévy process, considers two kinds of jump risk, Merton Jump and the Merton Jump whose jump intensity follows Hawkes Process. We use Particle Filter method and EM Algorithm to estimate the model parameters and calculate the log-likelihood value, AIC and BIC. We collect the S&P500 index for our empirical analysis and then compare the goodness of fit between the stochastic volatility model, the Variance Gamma model and two different jump risks. The empirical results show that the stochastic volatility model is better than the Variance Gamma model, and it is better to consider the jump risk in the model, especially the Merton Jump whose jump intensity follows Hawkes Process. The goodness of fit is better than Merton Jump. Overall, we find SVHJ model has better goodness of fit when S&P500 index was used as the empirical data.

Myths are intimately connected with emotions, but what the nature of the relationship really means, what it is, and how it functions are in many ways vague and unspecified. This is an examination of how, when and where emotions are referenced in theories of myth. The purpose is to point in a direction of possible new questions for future research on emotions and myth. Three major themes, centered around three major theorists of myth, are examined. The first treats perspectives of, and inspired by, Lucien Lévy-Bruhl. It is a theme based around views of myth as creating collective emotions. The second theme, centered around Bronislaw Malinowski, examines theories understanding myth as handling difficult emotions. The third theme deals with perspectives from Claude Lévi-Strauss’s structuralist theory of myth, where myth is seen as mediating contradictions, and thereby also mediating emotions of the contradictions. The three themes are then examined in relation to theories from the burgeoning history of emotions. New theoretical positions, such as the bodily and moral aspects of emotions, are examined and the result suggests that the central connection between myth and emotions could be found in humankind’s ever present concern to regulate, to discipline, and to form expressions of emotions.

Gegenstand dieser Dissertation ist die non-parametrische Schätzung der Kovarianz in multi-dimensionalen Lévy-Prozessen auf der Basis von Hochfrequenzbeobachtungen. Im ersten Teil der Arbeit wird eine modifizierte Version der von Jacod und Reiß vorgeschlagenen Methode der Hochfrequenzbeobachtung für die Ermittlung der Kovarianz multi-dimensionaler Lévy-Prozesse gegeben. Es wird gezeigt, dass der Kovarianzschätzer optimal im Minimaxsinn ist. Darüber hinaus demonstrieren wir, dass die Indexaktivität der co-jumps durch das harmonische Mittel der Sprungaktivitätsinzidenzen der Komponenten von unten beschränkt wird. Der zweite Teil behandelt das Problem der adaptiven Schätzung. Ausgehend von einer Familie asymptotischer Minimax-Schätzer der Kovarianz, erhalten wir einen datenbasierten Schätzer. Wir wenden Lepskii’s Methode an, um die Kovarianz an die unbekannte Aktivität des co-jumps Indexes des Sprungteils anzupassen. Da wir es mit einem Adaptierungsproblem zu tun haben, müssen wir eine Schätzung der charakteristischen Funktion des multi-dimensionalen Lévy-Prozesses konstruieren, damit die charakteristische Funktion weder von einer semiparametrischen Annahme abhängt noch schnell abfällt. Aus diesem Grund wird auf Basis von Neumanns Methode ein trunkierter Schätzer für die empirische charakteristische Funktion konstruiert. Die Anwesenheit der trunkierten, empirischen charakteristischen Funktion im Zähler führt jedoch zu einer Situation, die auch bei der Deconvolution auftritt, d.h. einem irregulären Verhalten des stochastischen Fehlers. Dieser U-förmige stochastische Fehler verhindert die Anwendung von Lepskii’s Grundsatz. Um diesem Problem, entgegenzuwirken, entwickeln wir eine Strategie, welche zu einem Orakelstart von Lepskii's Methode führt, mit deren Hilfe ein monoton steigender stochastischer Fehler konstruiert wird. Dies erlaubt uns, ein Balancing Principle einzuführen und einen adaptiven Schätzer für die Kovarianz zu erhalten, der fast-optimale Raten erzeugt. / In this thesis, we consider the problem of nonparametric estimation for the continuous part of the covariation of a multi-dimensional Lévy process from high-frequency observations. This continuous part of covariation is also called covariance. The first part modifies the high-frequency estimation method, proposed by Jacod and Reiss, to cover estimation of the covariance of multi-dimensional Lévy processes. The covariance estimator is shown to be optimal in the minimax-sense. Moreover, the co-jump index activity is proved to be bounded from below by the harmonic mean of the jump activity indices of the components. In the second part, we address the problem of the adaptive estimation. Starting from an asymptotically minimax family of estimators for the covariance, we derive a data-driven estimator. Lepskii's method is applied to adapt the covariance to the unknown co-jump index activity of the jump part. Faced with an adaptation problem, we need to secure an estimation for the characteristic function of the multi-dimensional Lévy process so that it does not depend on a semiparametric assumption and, at the same time, does not decay fast. For this reason, a truncated estimator for the empirical characteristic function is constructed based on Neumann's method. The presence of the truncated empirical characteristic function in the denominator leads to a situation similar to the deconvolution problem, i.e., an irregular behavior of the stochastic error. This U-shaped stochastic error does not permit us to apply Lepskii's principle. To counteract this problem, we establish a strategy to obtain an oracle start of Lepskii's method, according to which a monotonically increasing stochastic error is constructed. This enables us to apply a balancing principle and build an adaptive estimator for the covariance which obtains near-optimal rates.

In this thesis we consider the calibration of models based on Lévy processes to option prices observed in some market. This means that we choose the parameters of the option pricing models such that the prices calculated using the models correspond as closely as possible to these option prices. We demonstrate the ability of relatively simple Lévy option pricing models to nearly perfectly replicate option prices observed in nancial markets. We speci cally consider calibrating option pricing models to barrier option prices and we demonstrate that the option prices obtained under one model can be very accurately replicated using another. Various types of calibration are considered in the thesis. We calibrate a wide range of Lévy option pricing models to option price data. We con- sider exponential Lévy models under which the log-return process of the stock is assumed to follow a Lévy process. We also consider linear Lévy models; under these models the stock price itself follows a Lévy process. Further, we consider time changed models. Under these models time does not pass at a constant rate, but follows some non-decreasing Lévy process. We model the passage of time using the lognormal, Pareto and gamma processes. In the context of time changed models we consider linear as well as exponential models. The normal inverse Gaussian (N IG) model plays an important role in the thesis. The numerical problems associated with the N IG distribution are explored and we propose ways of circumventing these problems. Parameter estimation for this distribution is discussed in detail. Changes of measure play a central role in option pricing. We discuss two well-known changes of measure; the Esscher transform and the mean correcting martingale measure. We also propose a generalisation of the latter and we consider the use of the resulting measure in the calculation of arbitrage free option prices under exponential Lévy models. / PhD (Risk Analysis), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

In this thesis we consider the calibration of models based on Lévy processes to option prices observed in some market. This means that we choose the parameters of the option pricing models such that the prices calculated using the models correspond as closely as possible to these option prices. We demonstrate the ability of relatively simple Lévy option pricing models to nearly perfectly replicate option prices observed in nancial markets. We speci cally consider calibrating option pricing models to barrier option prices and we demonstrate that the option prices obtained under one model can be very accurately replicated using another. Various types of calibration are considered in the thesis. We calibrate a wide range of Lévy option pricing models to option price data. We con- sider exponential Lévy models under which the log-return process of the stock is assumed to follow a Lévy process. We also consider linear Lévy models; under these models the stock price itself follows a Lévy process. Further, we consider time changed models. Under these models time does not pass at a constant rate, but follows some non-decreasing Lévy process. We model the passage of time using the lognormal, Pareto and gamma processes. In the context of time changed models we consider linear as well as exponential models. The normal inverse Gaussian (N IG) model plays an important role in the thesis. The numerical problems associated with the N IG distribution are explored and we propose ways of circumventing these problems. Parameter estimation for this distribution is discussed in detail. Changes of measure play a central role in option pricing. We discuss two well-known changes of measure; the Esscher transform and the mean correcting martingale measure. We also propose a generalisation of the latter and we consider the use of the resulting measure in the calculation of arbitrage free option prices under exponential Lévy models. / PhD (Risk Analysis), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2015 / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : Die groeiende belangstelling in kalibrering en modelrisiko is ’n redelik resente ontwikkeling in finansiële wiskunde. Hierdie proefskrif fokusseer op hierdie sake, veral in verband met die prysbepaling van vanielje-en eksotiese opsies, en vergelyk die prestasie van verskeie Lévy modelle. ’n Nuwe metode om modelrisiko te meet word ook voorgestel (hoofstuk 6). Ons kalibreer eers verskeie Lévy modelle aan die log-opbrengs van die S&P500 indeks. Statistiese toetse en grafieke voorstellings toon albei aan dat suiwer sprongmodelle (VG, NIG en CGMY) die verdeling van die opbrengs beter beskryf as die Black-Scholes model. Daarna kalibreer ons hierdie vier modelle aan S&P500 indeks opsie data en ook aan "CGMY-wˆ ereld" data (’n gesimuleerde wÃłreld wat beskryf word deur die CGMY-model) met behulp van die wortel van gemiddelde kwadraat fout. Die CGMY model vaar beter as die VG, NIG en Black-Scholes modelle. Ons waarneem ook ’n effense verskil tussen die nuwe parameters van CGMY model en sy wisselende parameters, ten spyte van die feit dat CGMY model gekalibreer is aan die "CGMYwêreld" data. Versperrings-en terugblik opsies word daarna geprys, deur gebruik te maak van die gekalibreerde parameters vir ons modelle. Hierdie pryse word dan vergelyk met die "ware" pryse (bereken met die ware parameters van die "CGMY-wêreld), en ’n beduidende verskil tussen die modelpryse en die "ware" pryse word waargeneem. Ons eindig met ’n poging om hierdie modelrisiko te kwantiseer / ENGLISH ABSTRACT : The growing interest in calibration and model risk is a fairly recent development in financial mathematics. This thesis focussing on these issues, particularly in relation to the pricing of vanilla and exotic options, and compare the performance of various Lévy models. A new method to measure model risk is also proposed (Chapter 6). We calibrate only several Lévy models to the log-return of S&P500 index data. Statistical tests and graphs representations both show that pure jump models (VG, NIG and CGMY) the distribution of the proceeds better described as the Black-Scholes model. Then we calibrate these four models to the S&P500 index option data and also to "CGMY-world" data (a simulated world described by the CGMY model) using the root mean square error. Which CGMY model outperform VG, NIG and Black-Scholes models. We observe also a slight difference between the new parameters of CGMY model and its varying parameters, despite the fact that CGMY model is calibrated to the "CGMY-world" data. Barriers and lookback options are then priced, making use of the calibrated parameters for our models. These prices are then compared with the "real" prices (calculated with the true parameters of the "CGMY world), and a significant difference between the model prices and the "real" rates are observed. We end with an attempt to quantization this model risk.

In this thesis we study the optimal stochastic control problem of the drift of a Lévy process. We show that, for a broad class of Lévy processes, the partial integro-differential Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation for the value function admits classical solutions and that control policies exist in feedback form. We then explore the class of Lévy processes that satisfy the requirements of the theorem, and find connections between the uniform integrability requirement and the notions of the score function and Fisher information from information theory. Finally we present three different numerical implementations of the control problem: a traditional dynamic programming approach, and two iterative approaches, one based on a finite difference scheme and the other on the Fourier transform. / text

Cette thèse traite de la modélisation de prix boursiers par les exponentielles de processus de Lévy. La première partie développe une méthode non-paramétrique stable de calibration de modèles exponentielle-Lévy, c'est-à-dire de reconstruction de ces modèles à partir des prix d'options cotées sur un marché financier. J'étudie les propriétés de convergence et de stabilité de cette méthode de calibration, décris sa réalisation numérique et donne des exemples de son utilisation. L'approche adoptée ici consiste à reformuler le problème de calibration comme celui de trouver un modèle exponentielle-Lévy risque-neutre qui reproduit les prix d'options cotées avec la plus grande précision possible et qui a l'entropie relative minimale par rapport à un processus "a priori" donné. Ce problème est alors résolu en utilisant la méthode de régularisation, provenant de la théorie de problèmes inverses mal posés. L'application de ma méthode de calibration aux données empiriques de prix d'options sur indice permet d'étudier certaines propriétés des mesures de Lévy implicites qui correspondent aux prix de marché. <br /><br />La deuxième partie est consacrée au développement d'une méthode permettant de caractériser les structures de dépendance entre les composantes d'un processus de Lévy multidimensionnel et de construire des modèles exponentielle-Lévy multidimensionnels. Cet objectif est atteint grâce à l'introduction de la notion de copule de Lévy, qui peut être considérée comme l'analogue pour les processus de Lévy de la notion de copule, utilisée en statistique pour modéliser la dépendance entre les variables aléatoires réelles. Les exemples de familles paramétriques de copules de Lévy sont donnés et une méthode de simulation de processus de Lévy multidimensionnels, dont la structure de dépendance est décrite par une copule de Lévy, est proposée.

We develop a new method for pricing options on discretely sampled arithmetic average in exponential Lévy models. The main idea is the reduction to a backward induction procedure for the difference Wn between the Asian option with averaging over n sampling periods and the price of the European option with maturity one period. This allows for an efficient truncation of the state space. At each step of backward induction, Wn is calculated accurately and fast using a piece-wise interpolation or splines, fast convolution and either flat iFT and (refined) iFFT or the parabolic iFT. Numerical results demonstrate the advantages of the method.

Nesta dissertação desenvolvemos o Cálculo Estocástico para provar teoremas clássicos de Análise Complexa, em particular, o pequeno teorema de Picard. / In this dissertation we develop the Stochastic Calculus for to prove classical theorems in Complex Analysis, in particular, the little Picard\'s theorem.