Submitted by Cristiane Oliveira (cristiane.oliveira@fgv.br) on 2011-06-03T16:34:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 66080100279.pdf: 529950 bytes, checksum: 7ee7cb402cee43a4f529ced2c506f67d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vera Lúcia Mourão(vera.mourao@fgv.br) on 2011-06-03T16:45:38Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 66080100279.pdf: 529950 bytes, checksum: 7ee7cb402cee43a4f529ced2c506f67d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vera Lúcia Mourão(vera.mourao@fgv.br) on 2011-06-03T16:59:47Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 66080100279.pdf: 529950 bytes, checksum: 7ee7cb402cee43a4f529ced2c506f67d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2011-06-03T17:06:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 66080100279.pdf: 529950 bytes, checksum: 7ee7cb402cee43a4f529ced2c506f67d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-02-02 / Este estudo investiga a eficiência de precificação do Ibovespa à vista e futuro. Usando o modelo de custo de carregamento, compara-se o futuro observado com o justo no período de 04/01/2010 a 18/08/2010. Em um mercado eficiente, esses dois preços não podem divergir, pois eventuais diferenças geram oportunidades de arbitragem. O propósito desta dissertação é investigar duas questões: a primeira, se o modelo de custo de carregamento explica a dinâmica de preços observada; a segunda, se existem possibilidades de arbitragem entre os mercados à vista e futuro. A base de dados é composta de dados intradiários de compra e venda do Ibovespa à vista e futuro, calculados em intervalos de um minuto. Verifica-se que o modelo de custo de carregamento não explica o comportamento do mercado e que maiores discrepâncias de preços ocorrem longe do vencimento. Considerando-se custos de transação e prêmio de risco, existem inúmeras possibilidades de arbitragem no mercado, principalmente na operação que o mercado denomina como 'reversão'. / This study investigates the price efficiency of the spot and futures Ibovespa index. Using the cost of carry model, the “fair” price is compared to the actual price from 04/01/2010 to 18/08/2010. In an efficient market those prices cannot be different because they would lead to arbitrage opportunities. The purpose of this work is to answer two questions: first, if the cost of carry model can explain the market dynamics; second, if there are arbitrage opportunities between spot and future markets. The data set contains intraday bid and ask quotes for the Ibovespa spot and futures calculated every one minute. The findings suggest that the cost of carry model does not explain the market dynamics and that most of the arbitrage opportunities occur far from the maturity of the contract. Considering transaction costs and risk premium, there are many arbitrage opportunities, especially in an operation called “reversion”.

Submitted by JÚLIO HEBER SILVA (julioheber@yahoo.com.br) on 2018-06-11T19:53:05Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Cássia Cardoso de Carvalho Vasconcelos - 2018.pdf: 1013495 bytes, checksum: 354b152bc79c9682f78ed5fbe130c19e (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Rejected by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com), reason: Olhei nas dissertações que já foram inseridas para checar a citação, veja como deve ser: Ex.: Dissertação (Mestrado em Administração Pública em Rede Nacional) - on 2018-06-12T12:17:16Z (GMT) / Submitted by JÚLIO HEBER SILVA (julioheber@yahoo.com.br) on 2018-06-12T16:49:51Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Cássia Cardoso de Carvalho Vasconcelos - 2018.pdf: 1013495 bytes, checksum: 354b152bc79c9682f78ed5fbe130c19e (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2018-06-13T10:41:33Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Cássia Cardoso de Carvalho Vasconcelos - 2018.pdf: 1013495 bytes, checksum: 354b152bc79c9682f78ed5fbe130c19e (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-06-13T10:41:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Cássia Cardoso de Carvalho Vasconcelos - 2018.pdf: 1013495 bytes, checksum: 354b152bc79c9682f78ed5fbe130c19e (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-06-08 / The object of study of this research is expenses classified as carryovers, which are part of the public budget, and they are a challenge for public managers. The objective of the research is to propose a control instrument applicable to the budgetary and financial execution of an IFES, considering the legislation applicable to the public budget, that assists the manager in controlling and reducing the effects of expenses classified as carryovers. Descriptive analysis and application of Pearson's correlation index were carried out on data taken from the Federal Government's Portal, referring to the five universities in the Center-West region between 2008 and 2016. It is concluded that: carryovers are present in all universities evaluated; on average, more than a quarter of the budget started is not finalized in the same year; unprocessed leftovers account for more than 90% of the total unpaid debts of universities. Furthermore, it is found that: there is a moderate negative correlation to budget execution and unbundling of UNB; there is a moderate positive correlation between the remainders to be paid and the financial execution of the budget in the UFGD and the UNB, and negative correlation in the UFG. The intervention proposal has two stages: the first one is the collection of information on the budgetary and financial situation of IFES, through a control sheet, and the second step is the application of the GUT matrix in the budget balances of the carryovers, to prioritize the closure of such expenses. / O objeto desta pesquisa são as despesas classificadas como restos a pagar, que fazem parte da execução do orçamento público, e se apresentam como um desafio para os gestores públicos. O objetivo da pesquisa é propor um instrumento de controle aplicável à execução orçamentária e financeira de uma IFES, considerando a legislação aplicável ao orçamento público, que auxilie o gestor no controle e na redução dos efeitos das despesas classificadas como restos a pagar. Por meio da análise descritiva e aplicação do índice de correlação de Pearson de dados retirados do Portal Siga Brasil referentes às cinco universidades da região Centro-Oeste, entre os anos de 2008 e 2016, conclui-se que: os restos a pagar estão presentes em todas as universidades avaliadas; em média, mais de um quarto do orçamento iniciado não é finalizado no mesmo exercício; os restos a pagar não processados representam, em média, mais de 90% dos restos a pagar total das universidades, e constatou-se que: há correlação moderada negativa em relação à execução orçamentária e inscrição de restos a pagar na UNB; há correlação moderada positiva entre os restos a pagar e a execução financeira do orçamento na UFGD e na UNB, e correlação negativa na UFG. Apresenta-se a proposta de intervenção por meio de duas etapas: a primeira é o levantamento das informações a respeito da situação orçamentária e financeira da IFES, através de uma planilha de controle, e a segunda etapa é a aplicação da matriz GUT nos saldos orçamentários dos restos a pagar, para priorização de encerramento de tais despesas.

本研究提出了一個類神經網路機制，可以及時有效的預測利差交易(carry trade)的收益。為了實現及時性，我們將通過Tensorflow和圖形處理單元(GPU)來實作這個機制。此外，類神經網路機制需要處理具有概念飄移和異常值的時間序列數據。而我們將透過設計的實驗來驗證這個機制的及時性與有效性。 在實驗過程中，我們發現在演算法設置不同的參數將影響類神經網路的性能。本研究將討論不同參數下所產生的不同結果。實驗結果表明，我們所提出的類神經網路機制可以預測出利差交易的收益的動向。希望這個研究將對機器學習和金融領域皆有所貢獻。 / This research derives an artificial neural networks (ANN) mechanism for timely and effectively predicting the return of carry trade. To achieve the timeliness, the ANN mechanism is implemented via the infrastructure of TensorFlow and graphic processing unit (GPU). Furthermore, the ANN mechanism needs to cope with the time series data that may have concept-drifting phenomenon and outliers. An experiment is also designed to verify the timeliness and effectiveness of the proposed mechanism. During the experiment, we find that different parameters we set in the algorithm will affect the performance of the neural network. And this research will discuss the different results in different parameters. Our experiment result represents that the proposed ANN mechanism can predict movement of the returns of carry trade well. Hope this research would contribute for both machine learning and finance field.

No description available.

Research question - Which conditions are unique, regardless of time and space, for; supplying units in the defense of one's own territory, and supplying units in an invasion of another nation's territory? Purpose – This study aims to increase the understanding of the differences in logistical conditions for strategic supply, and to contribute to the relatively poorly explored research field of military logistics.  Design/methodology/approach – To answer the research question, the author conducted a structured, focused comparative study on three conflicts; The Finnish War, 1808-1809, Operation Barbarossa, 1941, Operation Iraqi Freedom, 2003. Findings – None of the defending sides were properly prepared. The defenders lost resources to the attackers. The defender controlled the territory before the conflict, and had the opportunity to affect and prepare it. All attackers could choose time and theater of war. All attackers’ units were cut off from their supply source due to weather or climate situation. The attackers had the opportunity to obtain resources from the defenders. The distance between the attackers’ units and their rear supply source increased as the offensive continues.  Originality/value – This is the first study that attempts to identify general differences between supplying the defending and the attacking side during an invasion.

Cette thèse traite deux sujets distincts, les deux représentant des enjeux importants pour un grand nombre de Pays d’Europe Centrale et Orientale (PECO). La première partie porte sur les emprunts en devises étrangères. Plusieurs études antérieures montrent que dans de nombreux PECO, l’endettement en devises étrangères a augmenté de manière considérable avant la crise et est devenu un enjeu majeur pour les entreprises, les ménages et pour la politique budgétaire et monétaire. Pour évaluer les risques associés à l’endettement excessif en devises étrangères, nous étudions la volonté des entreprises d’apparier la composition en devises de leurs actifs et leurs passifs ainsi que leurs incitations à dévier de l’appariement parfait. Nos résultats fournissent des preuves solides à l’appui du rôle de la couverture naturelle. Néanmoins, ce dernier n’est pas le motif principal d’endettement en devise étrangères : le motif de couverture naturelle n’explique qu’environ 10 à 20 pour cent de la dette totale en devises étrangères des entreprises avant et pendant la crise, respectivement. La plus grande partie de la dette en devises étrangères correspondrait, au moins en Hongrie, à des positions de carry trade détenues par des sociétés non financières. La deuxième partie de la thèse est consacrée à l’exploration des liens entre les systèmes socio-fiscaux et l’offre de travail à la marge extensive. Le deuxième chapitre propose une nouvelle stratégie de modélisation de l’offre de travail comme alternative aux deux approches dominantes basées sur le calcul marginal et les modèles d’utilité aléatoire. Finalement, le dernier chapitre utilise ce modèle pour quantifier la part de la différence entre les taux d’activité tchèque et hongrois qui peut être expliquée par les divergences des systèmes d’imposition et de protection sociale. Les estimations donnent des élasticités d’offre de travail similaires, ce qui suggère que les préférences individuelles sont essentiellement identiques dans les deux pays. Nos résultats montrent que la moitié de l’écart entre les taux d’activité s’explique par les différences des systèmes socio-fiscaux. / This thesis deals with two distinct topics, both of them representing central issues for many Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. The first part of the thesis focuses on foreign currency (FX) lending. Several previous studies point out that in many CEE countries, FX borrowing rose significantly before the crisis and has become a major challenge for firms, households and for fiscal and monetary policy. To evaluate the risks associated with excessive FX indebtedness, we investigate firms’ willingness to match the currency composition of their assets and liabilities and their incentives to deviate from perfect matching. Our results provide strong evidence to support the role of natural hedging, however, it is not the primary motivation for firms to choose foreign currency : it explains only about 10 percent of the overall corporate FX debt during the pre-crisis and 20 percent during the post-crisis periods. Most likely, the largest part of the corporate FX debt, at least in Hungary, corresponds to open carry trade positions held by non-financial corporations. The second part of the thesis is devoted to exploring the links between tax-benefit systems and labour supply at the extensive margin. The second chapter presents an alternative modelling strategy of labour supply to the two dominating approaches based on marginal calculus and on random utility models. Finally, the last chapter uses this model to quantify the difference between the Hungarian and the Czech participation rates that can be attributed to differences in taxation and welfare benefits. We find that the estimated labour supply elasticities for the Czech Republic are very close to the results for Hungary, suggesting that, at least in this dimension, individual preferences are similar in the two countries. Results suggests that about one-half of the total difference in the participation rates can be explained by differences in the tax-benefit systems.

The major obstacle many promising drugs struggle to overcome is the barrier imposed by the outer cell membrane. In addition to technologies such as liposomes and cell-penetrating peptides, more attention is being given to the class of proteins known as lectins to deliver therapeutic and antigenic proteins to the interiors of cells. Lectins bind to but do not modify sugars, and provide an efficient route to endocytosis. The galactose/N-acetyl-galactosamine specific lectin ricin B-chain (RTB) is especially attractive in possibly fulfilling a carrier role due to its well-characterized endocytotic trafficking and its efficacy over a wide range of cell types. By producing RTB recombinantly in plants it is possible to create a fully active, non-toxic carrier that does not rely on the processing of large amounts of toxic material (e.g. castor bean). Payload molecules such as small molecules and proteins can be attached to RTB via chemical conjugation at primary amine groups, without the loss of lectin or uptake activities. The biotin/streptavidin interaction and direct genetic fusion of polypeptides also provide efficient mechanisms for the attachment of payload proteins to RTB. An immunoglobulin domain-based scaffolding mechanism bridges modified RTB and payload proteins when co-expressed in Agrobacterium-infiltrated plant leaves. Carrier and payload proteins expressed in plants and E. coli, respectively, and purified independently are not able to assemble into an efficient carrier/payload arrangement. These findings show that plant cells are able to correctly produce the two components of the carrier/payload system and assemble them into an efficient and flexible capture and carry technology. / Ph. D.

La thèse aborde le droit européen de la télévision sous deux aspects :les régimes administratifs d’accès des émissions télévisées aux réseaux câblés et les droits intellectuels. <p><p>En ce qui concerne l’accès des émissions aux réseaux câblés, la thèse met en avant le besoin de sauvegarder un service public de l’audiovisuel. Celui-ci est défini comme un ensemble des règles qui visent à la fois le paysage audiovisuel propre à chaque Etat membre (par exemple pluralisme) et le contenu des émissions proprement dit (émissions informatives, éducatives, épanouissement culturel etc.). Le droit communautaire primaire et dérivé, tel qu’interprété par la Cour de justice, fournit les moyens de conciliation entre, d’une part les intérêts généraux et, d’autre part, les exigences découlant de la libre prestation de services et de la libre concurrence. <p><p>En ce qui concerne l’application des droits intellectuels, la thèse aborde la problématique liée à l’épuisement ou la subsistance de ceux-ci. Dans le cas de la câblodistribution, la Cour a affirmé la subsistance du droit. Cette position est corroboré par la nouvelle directive européenne sur le droit d’auteur et les droits voisins dans la société de l’information. La thèse appuie la position de subsistance en considérant qu’elle constitue une condition essentielle pour la juste récompense des auteurs. <p><p>Enfin, la thèse aborde les questions plus spécifiques qui naissent à propos de la convergence technologique et juridique. Tout d’abord, il est avancé que le service public de l’audiovisuel n’est pas uniquement lié à des contraintes techniques, mais essentiellement à des objectifs qualitatifs (contenu des émissions). Ainsi, la thèse plaide en faveur de la pérpetuité du service public de l’audiovisuel dans l’ère du numérique. Par ailleurs, des questions plus spécifiques (comme l’accès à la boucle locale, l’interconnexion des réseaux et la numérisation des infrastructures) ont été examinées. <p><p> / Doctorat en droit / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The main objective of the study was to determine the exchange rate volatility regime for carry trade profitability when using the South African Rand as the target currency. The study used the Logistic Smooth Transition Regression (LSTR) model to test the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP). The Sharpe ratio and the risk adjusted forward premium were used as the transition variables. The transition variable is a function of the transition function, which is used to determine the regime for the UIP. The LSTR model is characterised by three regimes, i.e. the lower regime, the middle regime and the upper regime. The LSTR model was tested for the short-term forward rate maturity of less than one year. The results show that the UIP hypothesis holds in the middle regime for the Rand/USD and the Rand/GBP when using the Sharpe ratio as the transition variable. Meanwhile, the UIP hypothesis does not hold for the Rand/Yen when using the Sharpe ratio as the transition variable for the forward rate maturity of one month, and it does hold for other short-term forward rate maturity of less than one year. The results for the risk adjusted forward premium as the transition variable show that the UIP hypothesis does not hold for all three currencies at various short-term forward rate maturities of less than one year. The research provides the following contributions to new knowledge: (1) Uncovered interest parity hypothesis holds in the middle regime for all periods for the Rand/USD and the Rand/GBP when using the Sharpe ratio as the transition variable with a short-term forward rate maturity of less than one year. (2) Currency carry trade profit taking for the Rand/USD and the Rand/GBP can be achieved in the upper regime. (3) The results for the Rand/Yen are mixed, in that the UIP hypothesis does not hold for other crisis periods as a result of negative Sharpe ratios. However, for the calm periods, UIP hypothesis holds in the middle regime for the Rand/Yen for short-term forward rate maturity of more than one month but less than one year when using the Sharpe ratio as the transition variable. The overall contribution of this study is that for the South African Rand as the target currency, the UIP hypothesis holds for the short-term horizon when using the Sharpe ratio as the transition variable and that this mostly depends more on currency than on horizon. Contrary to other researchers who found that the UIP holds in the long-term maturity with higher Sharpe ratios in the upper regime, this study proved that the UIP holds in the short-term maturity horizon. / Business Management / D.B.L.

日本經濟自1990年起，由「日本第一」落入「流動性陷阱」，而陷入長達10多年的不景氣，主因是日本股市及不動產市場重挫，企業向銀行貸款所提供之擔保品價值下滑，卻因在低利率時代已過度借貸，又經營不善面臨虧損，發生償債困難，一旦財務有所改善，只想提前償還貸款，而無增加貸款意願，故稱為「資產負債表的衰退」（Balance Sheet Recession）。整體經濟景氣蕭條，國內需求不振，亦使振興經濟之寬鬆貨幣政策無法達到預期效果。 日本資產泡沫的破滅使銀行體系的逾放問題日益嚴重。日本政府為了加強銀行體系的健全性，實施金融改革（Big Bang）。使原本以傳統存、放款業務為主的銀行，在面臨國際化浪潮時，也能同時經營證券、保險業務，並將新金融商品引進日本。並由隸屬於內閣府的金融廳(Financial Services Agency)來監督日本銀行及證券業務，負責金融檢查及金融法規企劃業務，落實金融與財政分離之原則。但日本金融業務日益多元化，及衍生性金融商品日趨複雜，對金融監理機關之專業能力，形成新的挑戰。以上所述為日本國內的經濟與金融問題。 至於日圓對外幣的匯率方面，由於日圓利率偏低，套利交易(carry trade) 盛行。投資人趁著日本央行維持低利率之際，借入低成本的日圓資金，然後換成利率較高的外幣轉戰國際市場，追逐收益較高的資產，同時賺取利差、匯率及資產升值的價差，使日圓匯率的走勢疲弱，也造成全球金融市場的波動。 本論文的分析包含： ㄧ、日本經濟不景氣問題剖析：股市及不動產資產泡沫化 二、日本金融危機形成原因：資產價格下跌，影響抵押品價值，企業償債能力變差，故使銀行不良債權增加。 三、日本總體經濟近況（GDP、CPI、失業率的變化）及經濟復甦後日本央行貨幣政策的改變 四、日本金融市場如股市、房地產市場及日本政府債券（JGB）市場的分析及展望。 五、探討日本銀行業獲利能力、不良債權問題、資本適足率以及銀行業股價指數的變化。 六、根據台灣以及日本最近的發展對金融監理單位及銀行業提出應有的改革與建議。 / The Japanese economy fell into a “liquidity trap” in 1990. Due to the stock market and real estate market plunge, the deep recession has lasted for over 10 years. The bursting of asset bubbles caused the balance sheets of enterprises to become weaker and weaker. All companies hoped to reduce their debt to banks if they were profitable. They had no intention to reinvest any more. So it was called - Balance Sheet Recession. Even though the Bank of Japan adopted an easy monetary policy, the financial system remained vulnerable. With the bad debt of commercial banks increasing, the NPL (non-performing loan) problem has been a major concern for city banks and regional banks. Japan's "Big Bang" reforms radically altered its financial marketplace. The barriers separating banks, securities, and insurance companies were lowered. The Financial Services Agency replaced Ministry of Finance to oversee banking, securities and exchange and insurance in order to ensure the stability of the financial system. As for financial business diversified and derivative products complicated, there were many great challenges facing the financial regulatory authorities. During the past decade, the yen carry trade has become a target for many investors or speculators. Traders using this strategy attempt to capture the difference between the interest rates of two currencies. Taking USD/Yen for example, they borrowed the cheaper yen and invested in U.S. Treasuries yielding a higher interest rate. It causes the depreciation of Japanese Yen and increases the volatility of financial markets. This essay describes Japanese financial crisis, Japanese monetary policy, stock market, and real estate market. Besides, I analyze the profitability, capital adequacy, and non-performing problems of Japanese banks. Finally, I give my personal opinions on Taiwan and Japan’s banking industry.