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Mergers & Acquisitions and IntangiblesOtt, Christian 17 September 2012 (has links) (PDF)
This dissertation explores the disclosure on intangibles acquired in Mergers & Acquisitos. The related empirical analyses are based on a sample of M&As that are accounted for under the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and United States Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (US-GAAP). In three different research papers I answer three distinct research questions. In order to enable capital providers and other external stakeholders to evaluate the PPA, the International Financial Reporting Standard 3 (IFRS 3) and the Statement of Financial Accounting Standards 141 (SFAS 141) require the acquirer firm’s management to disclose information about the assets acquired and liabilities assumed in the notes to the financial statement. The first research paper (see chapter II) addresses the following research question:
Which information about intangibles acquired in M&As does the acquirer firm’s management disclose in the notes to the financial statement?
The second research paper examines the factors that affect the initial recognition of goodwill. This research question is answered in the second research paper (see chapter III):
Does the acquirer firm’s management opportunistically or efficiently use its discretion to recognize goodwill initially?
The corporate information environment consists not only of corporate disclosure but also of disclosure by information intermediaries. The third research paper (see chapter IV) addresses this last set of research questions:
Which information about intangibles acquired in M&As is provided in voluntary or mandatory corporate disclosures and in disclosures by information intermediaries? How are the disclosure channels interrelated?
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The impact of industrial diversification on corporate transactionsNöllgen, Bruno 27 May 2014 (has links) (PDF)
This doctoral thesis consists of three articles: one literature overview and two empirical articles. The first article provides a literature overview about industrial diversification, corporate acquisitions and the intersection of both research areas. This thesis secondly analyzes whether conglomerates invest externally differently from focused firms. This investigation provides new insights on the question how industrial diversification influences corporate investment. It allows to draw conclusions whether internal investment is independent from external investment in diversified firms, or whether weak internal investment in conglomerates is (at least partially) offset by more efficient external investment, or even whether value-destructive internal investment is accompanied by external investment eliciting the same effects. In this case weakly managed multi-segment firms could be also identified by their behavior and success in corporate acquisitions. Third, the thesis copes with the question how conglomerates are perceived and treated as potential targets of corporate acquisitions. This analysis adds further aspects to the question whether multi-segment firms are discounted due to their organizational form. Assuming that the sum of the single segment of a diversified company is higher valued than the conglomerate as a whole, one could expect that investors should strive to acquire such companies, to dismantle them subsequently in order to create additional value by reshaping these inefficiently composed entities. However, there are also contradicting effects of lower synergies and higher integration costs compared to the acquisition of stand alone firms. New insights in these discussions allow us to draw conclusions whether a diversification discount potentially being harvested by a bust up takeover outweighs lower synergies and higher integration costs.
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Evolução e desempenho dos bancos durante o plano real / The evolution in the performance of banks during the Real PlanZaina Said El Hajj 05 April 2005 (has links)
Ao considerar o cenário atual, caracterizado pela globalização e internacionalização dos mercados, este estudo apresenta a evolução e o desempenho dos bancos, classificados em públicos, privados nacionais e estrangeiros, no Sistema Financeiro Nacional durante o Plano Real, desde 01/07/1994 a 31/12/2002. Trata-se, inicialmente, de um estudo descritivo setorial comparativo entre a participação desses três grupos de bancos e, principalmente, de um estudo empírico, por meio de análise fatorial, com indicadores contábeis dos bancos privados nacionais e dos bancos estrangeiros no país durante o período estudado. O Sistema Financeiro Nacional abordado é o relativo no período anterior à Reforma Bancária de 64 e, principalmente, ao vigente no Plano Real, com as medidas para reestruturação e fortalecimento do sistema financeiro, que contribuíram para as mudanças ocorridas no setor bancário. Destacam-se os Regimes Especiais, incluindo o RAET, o Fundo Garantidor de Crédito, o PROER, o PROES, os incentivos para as operações de reestruturação, fusões & aquisições, e a presença do capital estrangeiro no país. É analisada a evolução do número de bancos comerciais e múltiplos e de caixas econômicas em funcionamento antes do Plano Real (30/06/1994). Esses são classificados em três grupos: público, privado nacional e estrangeiro. Em seguida, são descritas as mudanças ocorridas referentes ao número de bancos desses grupos desde o início do Plano Real (01/07/1994) até 31/12/2002, com destaque para as privatizações e as transferências de controle. A pesquisa tem como propósito principal analisar os indicadores de desempenho bancário do setor privado nacional e do setor estrangeiro a fim de verificar a hipótese subjacente do estudo, ou seja, se há diferença entre as variáveis dos fatores que compõem os indicadores contábeis dos bancos privados nacionais e dos bancos estrangeiros durante o período entre 01/07/1994 a 31/12/2002. Assim, trata-se de um estudo empírico, realizado por meio de análise fatorial dos indicadores bancários, extraídos das Demonstrações Contábeis. / In view of the current market globalization and internationalization scenario, this study presents the evolution in the performance of banks, which are classified as public, Brazilian private and foreign private, in the National Financial System during the Real Plan, in the period from 07/01/1994 to 12/31/2002. Initially, a descriptive sectorial study compares the participation of these three groups of banks. Furthermore, an empirical study is carried out by means of factorial analysis, which uses accounting indicators from Brazilian private and foreign banks that were active in the country during the period under analysis. The National Financial System considered in this research refers to the period before the 1964 Bank Reform and, mainly, to the system in vigor during the Real Plan, and is characterized by its measures to restructure and strengthen the financial system, which contributed to the changes that occurred in the banking sector. Special attention is given to the Special Regimes, including the RAET (Temporary Special Administration Regime), the Credit Guarantee Fund, the PROER (Program of Incentives for the Restructuring and Strengthening of the National Financial System), the PROES (Program of Incentives for the Restructuring of the State Role in Banking Activity), the incentives for restructuring operations, mergers & acquisitions and the presence of foreign capital in Brazil. We analyze the evolution in the number of commercial and multiple banks and federal government savings banks that were active before the Real Plan (06/30/1994). These are classified in three groups: public, Brazilian private and foreign. Next, we describe the changes that occurred in the number of banks in each of these groups since the start of the Real Plan (07/01/1994) until 12/31/2002, especially privatizations and control transfers. The main aim of this study is to analyze the bank performance indicators in the Brazilian private and in the foreign sector, with a view to verifying the study premise, that is, whether there exists a difference between Brazilian private and foreign banks in the variables of factors that compose the accounting indicators during the period from 07/01/1994 to 12/31/2002. Therefore, an empirical study was carried out by means of the factorial analysis of banking indicators that were taken from the Financial Statements.
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Analyse des effets des pratiques de mutualisation sur la performance des organisations publiques locales : le cas des Services départementaux d'incendie et de secours / « Analysis of the impact of shared-resources mechanisms on the global performance of public organizations. Application in Departemental Fire and Emergency Service in France »Marin, Pierre 24 November 2014 (has links)
Résumé de la thèseCette recherche doctorale propose une analyse de l’impact des pratiques de mutualisation et de leur mise en œuvre sur la performance globale des organisations publiques. Cette recherche propose une définition des pratiques de mutualisation, en s’appuyant en particulier sur celles plus connues dans le privé comme la collaboration, le reengineering ou encore les fusions-acquisition. Elle s’appuie aussi sur la théorie des coûts de transaction et du changement organisationnel. D’autre part, l’analyse de la performance se fait à travers un prisme multidimensionnel que notre étude vient opérationnaliser. L’originalité de la recherche repose sur l’usage mixte d’une méthode quantitative, avec une enquête réalisée auprès des services départementaux d’incendie et de secours (SDIS) en France, et d’une méthode qualitative, à travers l’analyse approfondie d’une recherche-intervention de trois ans effectuée au sein d’un SDIS. Au global, les apports de la recherche apparaissent multiples. Tout d’abord, sur le plan théorique, il est notamment proposé un modèle novateur d’analyse de l’influence des pratiques de mutualisation et de leurs modalités de mise en œuvre sur les différentes dimensions de la performance publique locale. / This doctoral research is dedicated to the analysis of the impact of shared-resources mechanisms and their implementation on the global performance of public organizations. This research gives a proper definition to this mechanisms based on different concepts used for the private sector such as collaboration, reengineering or mergers and acquisitions. Moreover, this study is based on transaction cost theory and organizational changes. In addition, the analysis of performance that we propose uses a five dimension model that we were able to operationalize. The originality of the approach is linked to the use of both quantitative and qualitative analysis through a quantitative survey carried out in all Departmental Fire and Emergency Service in France, and, on the other and, a research-action led in one of them. The results of our research are numerous. The most important result is that the methodology of the implementation of shared resources mechanisms appears to be the most significant element which can create performance. Secondly, we propose a range of key success criteria of the methodology that can be used by manager in the public sector to run efficient shared-resources mechanisms.
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Aquisições, fusões e alianças estratégicas na configuração da cadeia sucroenergética brasileira / Acquisitions, mergers and strategic alliances in the configuration of the Brazilian sugar, ethanol and bioenergy chainSandra Lilian de Oliveira Façanha 30 August 2012 (has links)
A cadeia do açúcar tem sido um dos ícones da economia brasileira por séculos. Em meados da década de 1970, ela passou pela primeira mudança expressiva, a introdução do Proálcool, programa de combustível alternativo apoiado pelo governo. Após a recente virada do século, a cadeia sucroalcooleira passou por nova mudança, dessa vez fomentada pela tecnologia, com a introdução dos motores flex. Na mesma ocasião, algumas empresas iniciaram a comercialização de mais um importante produto, a bioeletricidade, a partir da cogeração de energia elétrica, resultante da queima do bagaço da cana no processo produtivo das usinas, anteriormente realizada para consumo próprio e agora, melhorada e ampliada, também comercializada como novo produto. Em meados da década de 2000, surgiram de forma mais expressiva diversos movimentos de aquisições, fusões e alianças estratégicas, cujos focos prioritários tem sido o mercado e a tecnologia. Tais movimentos envolvem empresas nacionais e transnacionais em diferentes segmentos: petrolíferas, petroquímicas, empresas de biotecnologia com foco no desenvolvimento de novos e processos e produtos, entre outras. Assim, emerge e se configura a cadeia sucroenergética brasileira, objeto de estudo desta pesquisa predominantemente exploratória, que reúne uma ampla base de dados e informações, incluindo entrevistas de executivos, pesquisadores e especialistas da cadeia. Os resultados indicam um fenômeno singular. Os movimentos de aquisições, fusões e alianças estratégicas estão alterando de forma rápida e drástica a configuração da cadeia sucronergética. Aquisições e fusões predominam em se tratando de crescente concentração horizontal e vertical, resultando na formação de grandes empresas ou grupos econômicos que atuam praticamente em todas as etapas da cadeia; enquanto alianças estratégicas predominam em se tratando de parcerias com ênfase em tecnologia, tendo por foco um amplo leque de potenciais inovações em processo (sendo as parcerias baseadas principalmente em contratos) ou produtos (principalmente, joint ventures). / The sugar chain has been one of the icons of the Brazilian economy for centuries. In mid 1970\'s it went through a drastic change with the introduction of \'Proalcool\', an alternative fuel (ethanol) program supported by the Brazilian Government. After the recent turn of the century, the ethanol and sugar chain went through another drastic change, this time triggered by technology, with the introduction of \'flex fuel vehicles\'. At the same time, some companies started to sell a new product: bioelectricity, as a result of the energy generated by the burning of sugar cane bagasse in the boilers; which was previously consumed internally only, but now it has been improved and increased, thus being sold as a new product. In mid 2000\'s, several acquisitions, mergers and strategic alliances started to take place in the chain, whose focus has been, primarily, market and technology. Said movements included transnational companies of different sectors, such as oil and petrochemical, also biotechnology companies focusing on new processes and/or products, among other companies. Thus, emerges the sugar, ethanol and bioenergy chain which is the object of this exploratory research. It sums up an extensive data and information base including interviews with executives, researchers and experts. The results indicate a singular phenomenon. Acquisitions, mergers and strategic alliances are changing in a fast and drastic way the configuration of the chain. However, acquisitions and mergers prevail concerning horizontal and vertical integration, resulting in large companies or economic groups which permeate most of the supply chain; while strategic alliances prevail regarding technology partnerships focusing either a broad portfolio of potential new processes (mostly through contracts i.e. non equity agreements) or new products (mostly through joint ventures).
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經理人過度自信於經濟衰退時對企業併購之影響 / The impact of CEO overconfidence on mergers & acquisitions during economic recession張暘亘, Chang, Yang Hsuan Unknown Date (has links)
本研究探討過度自信經理人於經濟衰退階段時之併購行為。本研究蒐集S&P1500大企業於1993年至2016年的資料,對過度自信經理人於景氣衰退階段的併購機率、宣告效果、長期股價表現進行分析。因為過度自信經理人低估景氣衰退所造成的高度不確定性,同時高估本身能夠透過併購所創造的公司價值,我們預期過度自信經理人相較非過度自信經理人更容易在景氣衰退的階段進行併購。然而實證結果過顯示過度自信經理人的併購機率於2008年金融海嘯後大幅下降,減少併購的幅度顯著高於非過度自信經理人。此結果和過去文獻一致,說明在財務資源不足的情況下,過度自信經理人會比非過度自信經理人更不願意投資。因為過度自信經理人高估自家公司權益價值,認為資本市場低估其權益價值,就算面對能為公司創造價值的投資案時也不願意向外發行股票籌資,因而導致他們在經氣衰退時較非過度自信經理人投資更保守。 / The study examines the behaviors of overconfident CEOs during recessions using firms included in S&P 1500 Index from 1993 to 2016. We propose that overconfident CEOs would undertake more M&As than non-overconfident CEOs during recessions for their biased beliefs lead them to underestimating the risk they would incur in recessions and overestimating the synergy they can create through M&As. However, we found that, during and after the 2008 Recessions, overconfident CEOs reduce significantly more in undertaking M&As than non-overconfident CEOs. The results are consistent with past literatures and suggest that decrease in financial resources caused by recession lead overconfident CEOs, who overestimate the value of their own equity and are unwilling to issue new equity, to reducing more in undertaking M&As than non-overconfident CEOs after and during recession.
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Förbundsbildning av Räddningstjänsten Skåne Nordväst - En studie om bildandet av räddningstjänstförbund mellan tre kommuner ur ett organisations- och beslutsteoretiskt perspektivKorosec, Robert January 2019 (has links)
Formerna för styrning och organisering av kommunal räddningstjänst har under de senaste 40 åren förändrats där sammanslagningar och förbundsbildningar har blivit ett vanligt förekommande fenomen. Fenomenet verkar härstamma från den amerikanska tillverkningsindustrin i slutet av 1800-talet och nu tycks fenomenet även kommit till den kommunala räddningstjänsten. Trenden har enligt Sveriges Kommuner och Landsting (2015) pekat mot en fortsatt utveckling av förbundsbildningar inom kommunal räddningstjänst. Det intressanta är att möjligheten att kunna bilda kommunalförbund har funnits i lag sedan 1919 men det dröjde 75 år innan sammanslagningar blev en intressant organisationsform för kommunala räddningstjänster.Uppsatsens syfte är att, med hjälp av kvalitativa intervjuer, försöka förstå samt belysa vad eller vilka orsaker som kunde varit bakomliggande beslutet att bilda ett gemensamt räddningstjänstförbund för de tre kommunerna Helsingborg, Ängelholm och Örkelljunga. Studien anses befinna sig i skärningspunkten mellan organisationsteoretiska samt beslutsteoretiska perspektiv med fokus på litteratur som kopplar samman organisationer med dess omgivning, beslutsfattande i komplexa situationer samt motiv till beslut i offentlig kontext. Den teoretiska referensramen utgår från nyinstitutionell teori, domänteori och garbage-can teori.Uppsatsen har resulterat i tre gemensamma orsaker till förbundsbildningen som tematiserats till förväntad utveckling, bättre kvalité och effektivitet samt utveckla samverkan medan två avvikande orsaker har tematiserat till förutbestämt och bryta tradition. Det som främst framkommer är att tolkningen av sammanslagningen och förbundsbildningen inom Skåne nordväst har skett på grund av en strävan efter framgång samt viljan att effektivisera verksamheten. En slutsats kan det då tolkas som att förbundsbildningen av Räddningstjänsten Skåne Nordväst har främst drivits som ett moderniseringsarbete, för att avveckla en gammal organisationsform i syfte att ersätta den med en nyare och legitimare organisationsform.Kunskapsmässigt bidrar studien till forskning som betraktar räddningstjänsten i ett större sammanhang, och specifikt utifrån ett organisationsteoretiskt perspektiv med förhoppningen att inspirera till ytterligare studier av räddningstjänsten ur ett organisationsteoretiskt perspektiv. / The formation for governance and organization of municipal rescue services have changed over the last 40 years where mergers and unions are now a common phenomenon. The phenomenon seems to be descended from the American manufacturing industry at the end of the 1900 century where the phenomenon also seems to have spread to the municipal rescue service where the trend according to the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions (2015) points to a continued development of unions in municipal rescue services. The interesting thing is that the opportunity to form municipal associations has been in law since 1919 but it took 75 years before mergers became an interesting form of organization for municipal rescue services.The purpose of the essay is, with the help of qualitative interviews, to try to understand and to highlight what underlying reasons could have been to decide to form a joint Rescue Service Association within the three municipal emergency services Helsingborg, Ängelholm and Örkelljunga. The study is at the intersection of organizational theory as well as decision-making theoretical perspectives with a focus on literature that connects organizations with its environment, decision-making in complex situations and motivations for decisions in public context. The theoretical frame of reference is based on institutional theory, domain theory and garbage-can theory.The result of the essay has resulted in three common reasons for the formation of the union which has been thematized to expected development, better quality and efficiency and develop collaboration, while two deviant causes have been thematized to predetermined and breaking of tradition. The main result is the interpretation that the merger and the union formation within Skåne nordväst have taken place due to a desire for gaining success and the willingness to improve the efficiency within the organization. A conclusion can then be interpreted that the association of Civil Protection Skåne Nordväst has mainly been run as a modernization work to dismantle an old organizational form with intent to replace it with a newer and more legitimate organizational form.The study contributes knowledge to research that considers the emergency services in a broader context, and specifically from an organizational theory perspective, with the hope of inspiring further studies of rescue services from an organization theory perspective.
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Determinants of Mergers & Acquisitions Activity : A quantitative study on public Swedish firmsJohnson, Hjalmar, Scherstén, Carl January 2022 (has links)
This study investigates the effect of monetary policy, focusing on repo rate and the expansion of QE programs, on Mergers and Acquisitions activity in publicly listed companies on the Swedish Stock Exchange. The study also investigates whether there are significant relationships between companies’ acquisition activity, their solvency or liquidity ratios. Additionally, the observed firms are categorized into industries to enable examination of differences between industries. The thesis aims at expanding the knowledge of determinant factors in explaining M&A activity on the Swedish market. To adequately determine the influencing factors on activity, 27 years of data was collected on acquiring Swedish firms from the Eikon database. In addition, data for the calculations of solvency and liquidity ratios were gathered from the same database. Data for the monetary policy variables were gathered from the Swedish Central Bank. A deductive quantitative method was used to analyze the various relationships between the studied variables. The study concluded significant correlation between monetary policy and M&A activity, company solvency and M&A activity as well as corporate liquidity and M&A activity. The correlation was negative in all cases except for quantitative easing which opens up for an interesting discussion. Observed industries gave a mixed result in terms of significant relationships but the result also indicate that pro-cyclical industries tend to be more affected by monetary policy than non-cyclicals. All of the above-mentioned relationships are further discussed from the perspective of various theories that both agree and disagree with the findings of this study. The authors believe that these results will give stakeholders a more in-depth knowledge and understanding of M&A activity and M&As in general. This study contributes knowledge to enable more sustainable business administration and management of companies.
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The impact of industrial diversification on corporate transactionsNöllgen, Bruno 20 January 2014 (has links)
This doctoral thesis consists of three articles: one literature overview and two empirical articles. The first article provides a literature overview about industrial diversification, corporate acquisitions and the intersection of both research areas. This thesis secondly analyzes whether conglomerates invest externally differently from focused firms. This investigation provides new insights on the question how industrial diversification influences corporate investment. It allows to draw conclusions whether internal investment is independent from external investment in diversified firms, or whether weak internal investment in conglomerates is (at least partially) offset by more efficient external investment, or even whether value-destructive internal investment is accompanied by external investment eliciting the same effects. In this case weakly managed multi-segment firms could be also identified by their behavior and success in corporate acquisitions. Third, the thesis copes with the question how conglomerates are perceived and treated as potential targets of corporate acquisitions. This analysis adds further aspects to the question whether multi-segment firms are discounted due to their organizational form. Assuming that the sum of the single segment of a diversified company is higher valued than the conglomerate as a whole, one could expect that investors should strive to acquire such companies, to dismantle them subsequently in order to create additional value by reshaping these inefficiently composed entities. However, there are also contradicting effects of lower synergies and higher integration costs compared to the acquisition of stand alone firms. New insights in these discussions allow us to draw conclusions whether a diversification discount potentially being harvested by a bust up takeover outweighs lower synergies and higher integration costs.:List of Tables … vi
List of Figures … viii
List of Abbreviations … ix
List of Symbols … x
Introduction … xiii
I. Literature review … 1
1. Literature review about diversification and corporate transactions … 2
1.1. Introduction … 5
1.2. Impact of diversification … 7
1.2.1. Diversification and firm value … 8
1.2.2. Diversification and investment … 15
1.2.3. Diversification and further firm characteristics … 20
1.3. Corporate transactions … 29
1.3.1. Drivers of acquisitions … 29
1.3.2. Characteristics of acquisitions … 40
1.3.3. Impact of corporate transactions … 47
1.4. Intersection between diversification and transactions … 54
1.5. Conclusion … 56
II. Diversification and acquisitions … 74
2. Diversification and the likelihood of acquisitions … 75
2.1. Introduction … 78
2.2. Theoretical background … 81
2.2.1. Diversification and the likelihood of acquisitions … 81
2.2.2. Diversification and deal characteristics … 84
2.2.3. Diversification and deal performance … 86
2.3. Data and methodology … 87
2.4. Descriptive statistics … 91
2.5. Diversification and corporate transactions … 92
2.5.1. Diversification and transaction probability … 92
2.5.2. Diversification and deal characteristics … 95
2.5.3. Diversification and post-acquisition performance … 98
2.6. Conclusion … 100
III. Diversification and takeover likelihood … 109
3. Do acquirers of conglomerates benefit from the diversification discount? … 110
3.1. Introduction … 113
3.2. Theoretical background … 115
3.2.1. Corporate performance, diversification and takeover probability … 115
3.2.2. Entrenchment, diversification and takeover probability … 117
3.2.3. Synergies, integration costs and takeover probability … 119
3.2.4. Bid premiums and post-acquisition returns … 120
3.3. Data and methodology ... 123
3.4. Descriptive statistics … 127
3.4.1. Successful bids and diversification … 127
3.4.2. Bids and conglomerates: univariate analysis … 129
3.5. Diversification and the likelihood of being acquired … 130
3.6. Diversification and the bid premiums paid … 134
3.7. Diversification and the CAR of the acquirer … 138
3.8. Conclusion … 140
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Estimating the Expected Pay-out of Earnout Contracts in Private Acquisitions / Estimering av utbetalning från tilläggsköpeskillingar vid förvärv av onoterade företagWuilmart, Adam, Harrysson, Erik January 2022 (has links)
The growth of private equity, as well as consolidation trends across other industries, have produced a strong and vibrant mergers and acquisitions market. A challenge during these acquisitions is information asymmetry, which makes agreeing on the transaction price a challenge. An increasingly popular instrument to get around this problem is to use earnout contracts, which puts the difference between what the buyer is willing to pay and what the seller is willing to accept as contingent on future performance of the company. This thesis focuses on testing four different models for estimating the expected pay-out of earnout contracts. The investigated models were geometric Brownian motion, autoregressive integrated moving average, artificial neural network and a hybrid model to forecast the underlying metrics which were used with Monte Carlo methods to compute the expected pay-out of the earnout contract. Furthermore, a bankruptcy adjusted and a model using implied market volatility were evaluated. The results were that the hybrid model showed the most promising predictions when estimating the expected pay-out. The bankruptcy adjustment was not successful since the model failed to reach sufficient accuracy. Using implied market volatility showed inconclusive results. / Tillväxten för riskkapital-industrin och konsolideringstrender inom andra industrier har resulterat i en aktiv marknad för bolagsförvärv. En tydlig utmaning under ett förvärv är informationsasymmetri, vilket gör det svårt att komma överens om bolagets värdering. En alltmer vanlig metod för att lösa detta problem är att använda en tilläggsköpeskilling. Ett sådant kontrakt placerar skillnaden mellan vad köparen är villig att betala och vad säljaren är villig att acceptera som en option baserad på bolagets framtida prestation. Detta examensarbete fokuserade på att testa fyra olika modeller för att skatta den framtida utbetalningen från tilläggsköpeskillingar. De utvärderade modellerna var baserade på geometrisk brownsk rörelse, autoregressive integrated moving average, artificiellt neuralt nätverk och en hybridmodell vilka användes för att generera prediktioner för optionernas underliggande mått. Dessa användes sedan för att med hjälp av Monte Carlo simulering skatta den förväntade utbetalningen från tilläggsköpeskillingen. Utöver detta testades en modell med justering av konkursrisk samt en modell baserad på implicerad volatilitet från börsnoterade optioner. Resultaten visade att hybridmodellen gav bäst prediktioner av den förväntade utbetalningen. Den konkursjusterade modellen påvisade inga signifikanta resultat då den ej nådde tillräckligt hög prediktionsförmåga. Användningen av implicerad marknadsvolatilitet gav ingen tydlig och statistiskt signifikant förbättring.
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