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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
51

The Principle of Scaling of Geographic Space and its Application in Urban Studies

Liu, Xintao January 2012 (has links)
Geographic space is the large-scale and continuous space that encircles the earth and in which human activities occur. The study of geographic space has drawn attention in many different fields and has been applied in a variety of studies, including those on cognition, urban planning and navigation systems. A scaling property indicates that small objects are far more numerous than large ones, i.e., the size of objects is extremely diverse. The concept of scaling resembles a fractal in geometric terms and a power law distribution from the perspective of statistical physics, but it is different from both in terms of application. Combining the concepts of geographic space and scaling, this thesis proposes the concept of the scaling of geographic space, which refers to the phenomenon that small geographic objects or representations are far more numerous than large ones. From the perspectives of statistics and mathematics, the scaling of geographic space can be characterized by the fact that the sizes of geographic objects follow heavy-tailed distributions, i.e., the special non-linear relationships between variables and their probability. In this thesis, the heavy-tailed distributions refer to the power law, lognormal, exponential, power law with an exponential cutoff and stretched exponential. The first three are the basic distributions, and the last two are their degenerate versions. If the measurements of the geographic objects follow a heavy-tailed distribution, then their mean value can divide them into two groups: large ones (a low percentage) whose values lie above the mean value and small ones (a high percentage) whose values lie below. This regularity is termed as the head/tail division rule. That is, a two-tier hierarchical structure can be obtained naturally. The scaling property of geographic space and the head/tail division rule are verified at city and country levels from the perspectives of axial lines and blocks, respectively. In the study of geographic space, the most important concept is geographic representation, which represents or partitions a large-scale geographic space into numerous small pieces, e.g., vector and raster data in conventional spatial analysis. In a different context, each geographic representation possesses different geographic implications and a rich partial knowledge of space. The emergence of geographic information science (GIScience) and volunteered geographic information (VGI) greatly enable the generation of new types of geographic representations. In addition to the old axial lines, this thesis generated several types of representations of geographic space: (a) blocks that were decomposed from road segments, each of which forms a minimum cycle such as city and field blocks (b) natural streets that were generated from street center lines using the Gestalt principle of good continuity; (c) new axial lines that were defined as the least number of individual straight line segments mutually intersected along natural streets; (d) the fewest-turn map direction (route) that possesses the hierarchical structure and indicates the scaling of geographic space; (e) spatio-temporal clusters of the stop points in the trajectories of large-scale floating car data. Based on the generated geographic representations, this thesis further applies the scaling property and the head/tail division rule to these representations for urban studies. First, all of the above geographic representations demonstrate the scaling property, which indicates the scaling of geographic space. Furthermore, the head/tail division rule performs well in obtaining the hierarchical structures of geographic objects. In a sense, the scaling property reveals the hierarchical structures of geographic objects. According to the above analysis and findings, several urban studies are performed as follows: (1) generate new axial lines based on natural streets for a better understanding of urban morphologies; (2) compute the fewest-turn and shortest map direction; (3) identify urban sprawl patches based on the statistics of blocks and natural cities; (4) categorize spatio-temporal clusters of long stop points into hotspots and traffic jams; and (5) perform an across-country comparison of hierarchical spatial structures. The overall contribution of this thesis is first to propose the principle of scaling of geographic space as well as the head/tail division rule, which provide a new and quantitative perspective to efficiently reduce the high degree of complexity and effectively solve the issues in urban studies. Several successful applications prove that the scaling of geographic space and the head/tail division rule are inspiring and can in fact be applied as a universal law, in particular, to urban studies and other fields. The data sets that were generated via an intensive geo-computation process are as large as hundreds of gigabytes and will be of great value to further data mining studies. / <p>QC 20120301</p> / Hägerstrand project entitled “GIS-based mobility information for sustainable urban planning and design”
52

Dinâmica do componente arbóreo em um fragmento de Floresta Ombrófila Mista Montana em Lages, SC / Dynamics of the arboreal component in a Montane Araucaria Forest fragment in Lages, SC

Salami, Bruna 09 July 2013 (has links)
Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-12T20:12:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PGEF13MA002.pdf: 1189364 bytes, checksum: 02eb7d4aa15b616a2256de136a1b1c23 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-07-09 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The present study aimed to evaluate the community dynamics of tree species in a fragment of Montane Araucaria Forest, in the municipality of Lages, SC, over a period of four years (2008-2012). For this, were ploted 50, 10x20m, permanent plots was performed the environmental characterization (terrain, soils and canopy cover), obtained the spatial coordinates, determined the regeneration guilds [Pioneer (P), Climax Light Demanding (CEL) and Climax Shade Tolerant (CTS)] and calculated dynamics rates (mortality, recruitment, loss and gain in basal area, turnover and net change in abundance and basal area) of all surveyed species (diameter at breast height &#8805; 5cm). The existence of significant association between regeneration guilds and dynamic rates was verified by qui-square tests, applied to contingency tables. Changes in relative participation of regeneration guilds between years were analyzed using proportion tests. The spatial structuration of dynamics rates was evaluated through I Moran correlograms and the influence of environmental variables analyzed through regression trees. In 2008, 84 species were found (P: 9, CLD: 64 and CST: 11), with a density of 1.841 ind.ha-1 and basal area of 36.17 m².ha-1. In 2012, 83 species (P: 9, CLD: 63 and CST: 11), with a density of 1.882 ind.ha-1 and basal area of 39.17 m².ha-1 were observed. The dynamics rates did not demonstrated spatial autocorrelation. The gain and turnover in basal area rates were higher, respectively, in locations with lower values of canopy cover (<80.63%) and with higher values of sum of base in the soil (&#8805;61.77%). No significant association between the dynamics patterns and regeneration guilds was observed. The relative participation of guilds stayed constant during the evaluated period, with a low floristic substitution. Thus, it is possible to conclude that, in general, the dynamics occurred randomly in the space, and the forest fragment is in the process of structural instability and floristic-successional stability / O presente estudo teve como principal objetivo avaliar a dinâmica da comunidade de espécies arbóreas, em um fragmento de Floresta Ombrófila Mista Montana, no Município de Lages, SC, ao longo de um período de quatro anos (2008-2012). Para isto, foram alocadas 50 parcelas permanentes, de 10x20m, onde foram realizadas a caracterização ambiental (relevo, solos e cobertura do dossel), obtidas as coordenadas espaciais, determinadas as guildas de regeneração [Pioneiras (P), Climácicas Exigentes em Luz (CEL) e Climácicas Tolerantes ao Sombreamento (CTS)] e calculadas as taxas de dinâmica (mortalidade, recrutamento, ganho e perda em área basal, rotatividade e mudança liquida em abundância e área basal) de todas as espécies amostradas (diâmetro na altura do peito &#8805; 5cm). A existência de associação significativa entre guildas de regeneração e padrões de dinâmica foi verificada por meio de testes de qui-quadrado, aplicados a tabelas de contingência. Mudanças das participações relativas das guildas de regeneração entre os anos foram analisadas por meio de testes de proporção. A estruturação espacial das taxas de dinâmica foi avaliada por meio de correlogramas de I de Moran e a influência dos fatores ambientais verificada através de árvores de regressão. No ano 2008 foram verificadas 84 espécies (P: 9, CEL: 64 e CTS: 11), possuindo uma densidade de 1.841 ind.ha-1 e área basal de 36,17m2.ha-1. No ano de 2012, verificou-se 83 espécies (P: 9, CEL: 63 e CTS: 11), com densidade de 1.882 ind.ha-1 e área basal de 39,17m2.ha-1. As taxas de dinâmica não apresentaram autocorrelação espacial. As taxas de ganho e rotatividade em área basal foram maiores, respectivamente, nos locais com menores valores de cobertura do dossel (<80,63%) e com maiores valores de soma de base no solo (&#8805;61,77%). Não foi verificada associação significativa entre os padrões de dinâmica observados e guildas de regeneração. A participação relativa das guildas permaneceu constante durante o período avaliado, com uma baixa substituição florística. Desta forma, conclui-se que, de modo geral, a dinâmica ocorreu de forma espacialmente aleatória e o fragmento florestal encontra-se em fase de instabilidade estrutural e estabilidade florística-sucessional
53

Estrutura espacial da assembleia de cupins (Isoptera) em uma área de cerrado sensu stricto do Parque Estadual da Serra de Caldas Novas, Goiás / Spatial structure of the termites assemblage (Isoptera) in an area of cerrado sensu stricto in the Serra de Caldas Novas State Park, Goiás State

OLIVEIRA, Danilo Elias de 30 January 2009 (has links)
Made available in DSpace on 2014-07-29T16:21:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAO DANILO E OLIVEIRA.pdf: 948232 bytes, checksum: abfb2cc1c3f80adf6f86dc733c764552 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-01-30 / One of the major community ecology's objectives is to understand the factors that determine the spatial distribution of populations of different species belonging to an assembly. Works that investigate these causal factors on the termite fauna are rare, and to the Cerrado region, non-existent. This work aims to 1) describe the spatial structure of the termite assembly in a cerrado sensu stricto area, 2) verify whether there is spatial autocorrelation in the composition of termites and 3) whether the species are distributed on a checkerboard, and if so, what cause this distribution. On the plateau of Parque Estadual da Serra de Caldas Novas (PESCAN), I sampled the termites on 123 10m2 plots with distances to each other varying from 5 m to 3.5 km. This plots were divided into two sets, One of those arranged into 3 transects of 28 plots each and the other arranged into 13 triads distant 1 km to the next. I Identified the species and grouped them into food guilds. I made a Mantel s autocorrelogram with 10 distance classes to assess the changes in the similarity of the composition in function of space. I compared the C-score index, using the entire assembly and each guild alone, with a null distribution (with 5000 randomizations) to check whether there is a checkerboard distribution in the assembly and what its cause. I found 579 colonies of 57 species of termites, most of which was humivorous. There was no significant spatial autocorrelation in any distance class concerning the species composition because the values of r of Mantel for all distance classes were close to zero and not significant. The C-score was significant for the assembly as a whole (C-score = 52.01, p = 0.006), but was not significant for any of the guilds. The cerrado of PESCAN is one of the areas with the highest species diversity already registered for the Cerrado biome and possibly this is because of the well preserved condition of the park and the sampling effort employed. The absence of spatial autocorrelation indicates that the species of termites are distributed in space regardless of the distribution of others. This is the first study that shows that the assembly of termites is distributed on a checkerboard and that this is due to historical events of dispersal and colonization. In the area I studied, probably the dispersion of the allates during flight events makes the establishment of future colonies in a field forming a "scrambled" and not superimposed distribution known as checkerboard distribution. These results contradict the recurrent idea that intra and interspecific competition is the causal factor of the colonies spatial distribution of termites. / Um dos grandes objetivos da ecologia de comunidades é conhecer os fatores que determinam a distribuição espacial das populações de diferentes espécies pertencentes a uma assembleia. Trabalhos que investigam esses fatores causais na fauna de cupins são raros e, para a região do Cerrado, inexistentes. Objetivei 1) descrever a estrutura espacial da assembleia de cupins em uma área de cerrado sensu stricto, 2) verificar se existe autocorrelação espacial na composição de cupins e 3) se as espécies se distribuem em tabuleiro de xadrez e, em caso afirmativo, qual a causa dessa distribuição. No platô do Parque Estadual da Serra de Caldas Novas (PESCAN) amostrei os cupins em 123 parcelas de 10 m2 com distâncias de 5 a 3,5 km entre si dispostas em três transectos de 28 parcelas cada e em 13 tríades distantes 1 km entre si. Identifiquei as espécies e as classifiquei em guildas alimentares. Fiz um autocorrelograma de Mantel com 10 classes de distâncias, para avaliar a similaridade na composição em função do espaço. Comparei o índice C-score, utilizando toda a assembleia e cada guilda em particular, com uma distribuição nula (com 5000 aleatorizações) para verificar se existe distribuição em tabuleiro de xadrez na assembleia e qual sua causa. Encontrei 579 colônias de 57 espécies de cupins, sendo que a maioria era humívora. Não houve autocorrelação espacial significativa em nenhuma classe de distância para a composição de espécies, pois os valores do r de Mantel para todas as classes de distância foram próximos a zero e não significativos (p > 0,05). O índice C-score foi significativo para a assembleia como um todo (C-score = 52.01; p = 0,006), mas não foi significativo para nenhuma das guildas (p > 0,05). O cerrado do PESCAN é uma das áreas com a maior diversidade espécies já registradas para o bioma Cerrado, e isso possivelmente se deve às características do parque, como seu alto grau de preservação, e ao esforço amostral empregado. A ausência de autocorrelação espacial indica que as espécies de cupins se distribuem no espaço independentemente da distribuição das demais. Este é o primeiro estudo que demonstra que a assembleia de cupins se distribui em tabuleiro de xadrez e que isso é devido aos eventos históricos de dispersão e colonização. No cerrado que estudei provavelmente a dispersão dos alados durante as revoadas faz com que as futuras colônias se estabeleçam em uma determinada área formando uma distribuição embaralhada e não sobreposta conhecida como distribuição em tabuleiro de xadrez. Estes resultados contradizem a idéia recorrente de que a competição intra e interespecífica é o fator causal da distribuição espacial das colônias de cupins.
54

Vývoj vzdělanostní struktury mikroregionu České Budějovice / The Development of Education Structure of Microregion České Budějovice

Hovorková, Kateřina January 2015 (has links)
Socio-spatial differentiation is natural phenomenon observable in almost all scales. However, the causes and consequences of this phenomenon can be different in particular areas or the era. Income inequality has increased in the Czech Republic since 1989, as well as unemployment and various social problems, which are reflected in the social environment of villages and towns as well as in municipal decision-making. The aim of the diploma thesis is to identify social (educational) diferentiation at several spatial hierarchy levels. The main part of the thesis emphasizes understanding the evolution of socio-spatial differentiation at local level in micro-region České Budějovice from 1989 to the present using the education level of the population and identifies areas with positive and negative development. The education is considered as the indicator of socio- economic status, human capital or relative income. The intention of the thesis is to identify the areas with higher concentration of people with higher and lower socio-economic status and also find the main factors and mechanisms that create these spatial patterns. This thesis works primarily with the cencus data. The diploma thesis also provides basic development maps of the population patterns with lower and higher social status from the...
55

A markov chain monte carlo method for inverse stochastic modeling and uncertainty assessment

Fu, Jianlin 07 May 2008 (has links)
Unlike the traditional two-stage methods, a conditional and inverse-conditional simulation approach may directly generate independent, identically distributed realizations to honor both static data and state data in one step. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) method was proved a powerful tool to perform such type of stochastic simulation. One of the main advantages of the McMC over the traditional sensitivity-based optimization methods to inverse problems is its power, flexibility and well-posedness in incorporating observation data from different sources. In this work, an improved version of the McMC method is presented to perform the stochastic simulation of reservoirs and aquifers in the framework of multi-Gaussian geostatistics. First, a blocking scheme is proposed to overcome the limitations of the classic single-component Metropolis-Hastings-type McMC. One of the main characteristics of the blocking McMC (BMcMC) scheme is that, depending on the inconsistence between the prior model and the reality, it can preserve the prior spatial structure and statistics as users specified. At the same time, it improves the mixing of the Markov chain and hence enhances the computational efficiency of the McMC. Furthermore, the exploration ability and the mixing speed of McMC are efficiently improved by coupling the multiscale proposals, i.e., the coupled multiscale McMC method. In order to make the BMcMC method capable of dealing with the high-dimensional cases, a multi-scale scheme is introduced to accelerate the computation of the likelihood which greatly improves the computational efficiency of the McMC due to the fact that most of the computational efforts are spent on the forward simulations. To this end, a flexible-grid full-tensor finite-difference simulator, which is widely compatible with the outputs from various upscaling subroutines, is developed to solve the flow equations and a constant-displacement random-walk particle-tracking method, which enhances the com / Fu, J. (2008). A markov chain monte carlo method for inverse stochastic modeling and uncertainty assessment [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/1969 / Palancia
56

Effects of high-speed rail on regional development : Case study of the Stockholm-Mälar region and Yangtze River Delta region

Wang, Ting January 2015 (has links)
High-speed railway, as a modern means of transport with convenient, fast and mass transport volume characteristics, plays a significant role on regional development. Since 2008, in order to react to the influence of international financial crisis, China began the mass construction of high-speed rail. With the rapid construction, China has the longest mileage of high-speed rail in 2014. On the one hand, China enjoys the benefits of improved accessibility. On the other hand, many scholars think the expectations of high-speed rail are a bit exaggerated. In order to knowing and predicting the effects of high-speed rail objectively, the thesis tries to study how high-speed rail promotes the regional development in the Yangtze River Delta region of China, based on the experiences in Stockholm-Mälar Region of Sweden. The study in Stockholm-Mälar region suggests that: high-speed rail improve the overall accessibility in the region, and land along high-speed line and around station has better accessibility; frequent and easier commuting promotes regional integration; high-speed rail, on the one hand, strengthens the central position of regional center, on the other hand, brings more and equal opportunities for regional cities; moreover, large cities with good accessibility have the potential to grow up to the sub-centers. Combined with the experiences in the Stockholm-Mälar region and self-development situation, the development in the Yangtze River Delta region under the impacts of high-speed rail have following trends: first, high-speed rail promote the reorganize of urban system through the growth of new regional sub-centers and flat development; second, high-speed rail guides the reorganization of regional spatial structure, which mainly reflects in the urban land and regional cities distribute along the high-speed rail corridor; third, high-speed rail increases potential of regional commuting and accelerates the regional integration, and commuting trends will appear from major cities to Shanghai and peripheral cities to sub-centers; fourth, high-speed rail might bring positive effects (e.g. the radiation effect of regional central city) and negative effects (e.g. siphon effect, the outflow of city population and resources) for regional cities. In addition, aiming to the existing and possible issues, two supportive strategies are proposed about regional governance and urban public transportation development.
57

Optimal Regional Allocation of Population and Employment: Application of a Spatial Interaction Commuting Model

Lee, David Jung-Hwi 14 September 2010 (has links)
No description available.
58

Por onde andam as crianças? da estrutura sócio-espacial às práticas cotidianas em Porto Alegre

Cardoso, Bianca Breyer January 2012 (has links)
O tema deste estudo é a relação da criança com a cidade na sociedade contemporânea. O problema de pesquisa se constitui a partir dos indicativos de que a fruição do espaço urbano, fundada na apropriação da rua como espaço de lazer, sofreria importantes transformações diante das inovações produtivas, tecnológicas e comunicacionais da sociedade. A hipótese é que a alteração das práticas está associada às diferenças na estrutura sócio-espacial, não sendo homogênea. Assim, seu objetivo é caracterizar a experiência urbana das crianças, identificando as práticas cotidianas e os espaços vividos; além de evidenciar a relação entre as práticas e as características sócio-espaciais; bem como avaliar a extensão do fenômeno de esvaziamento da rua como espaço de lazer. A investigação toma Porto Alegre como lócus de pesquisa, por se tratar de metrópole inserida no contexto da globalização. A empiria adota como recorte etário a faixa de 7 a 14 anos, e se estrutura em duas etapas: a primeira consiste na análise da estrutura sócio-espacial do município, através de dados censitários que articulam o espaço social das famílias ao espaço físico dos bairros, da qual resulta a classificação dos bairros segundo Perfis do Espaço Social. A segunda etapa é a análise da inter-relação entre a estrutura sócio-espacial de Porto Alegre, em seus aspectos demográficos, locacionais e morfológicos, e as práticas cotidianas. Como fontes de pesquisa, além dos dados censitários espacializados, estão os próprios habitantes, incorporados através de estudo piloto, realizado com estudantes do 8º ano do Ensino Fundamental. A análise da estrutura sócio-espacial aponta que grande parte das crianças porto-alegrenses vive em bairros de baixa renda situados, predominantemente, na periferia da cidade. A investigação das práticas cotidianas indica que a rua continua sendo apropriada para o lazer, embora prevaleça como espaço de circulação. O recolhimento ao espaço privado é verificado em todos os estratos e está vinculado, em alguns casos, à presença de condomínios fechados. Entre os estudantes, o envolvimento com o espaço público se dá em diferentes níveis, da utilização mais intensa, passando pelo equilíbrio na vivência público-privado, até chegar à experiência centrada no privado, que culmina na não-vivência do espaço público. A experiência urbana se constitui, portanto, através de múltiplas vias, marcadas pelas diferenças sócio-espaciais que envolvem o cotidiano de cada habitante. Disto emerge a validade de tomar o recorte etário como critério de análise e definição de políticas urbanas, uma vez que permite a incorporação da dimensão humana e da escala cotidiana à prática do planejamento urbano. / The subject of this study is the children's relationship with the city in contemporary society. The research issue is constituted from the indications that the enjoyment of urban space, based on appropriation of the street as a space for leisure, has undergone important changes in face of the productive, technological and communicative innovations of society. The hypothesis is that the changing of the practices is associated with socio-spatial differences and is not homogeneous. So, the research objective is to characterize the urban experience of children, identifying the everyday practices and lived spaces; show the relationship between the practices and socio-spatial characteristics, and to assess the extent of the phenomenon of deflation of the street as a space for leisure. The investigation takes Porto Alegre, Brazil, as locus of research, because of its condition of metropolis into the context of globalization. The empirical study adopts as age cut the range from 7 to 14 years, and is divided into two stages: the first is the analysis of socio-spatial structure of the city, through census data that articulate the social space of the families with the physical space of the districts, which results in the districts´ classification according the social-space profiles. The second step is the analysis of the inter-relationship between the socio-spatial structure of Porto Alegre, in their demographic, locational and morphological features, and everyday practices. As research sources, in addition to spatialized census data, are the inhabitants, incorporated through a pilot study with 8th grade students of elementary school. The analysis of socio-spatial structure shows that most children at Porto Alegre live in low-income neighborhoods, mostly located on the suburbs of the city. The investigation about everyday life indicates that street is still appropriate for leisure, although prevails as circulation space. The retreat into private space is found in all strata, and it is linked, in some cases, with the presence of gated communities. Among students, engagement with public space is established at different levels, from more intensive use, through the balance in public-private experience, to the experience focused on private, culminating in the non-experience of public space. The urban experience is constituted, therefore, through multiple ways, marked by socio-spatial differences surrounding the daily life of each inhabitant. Hence the validity to consider the age cut as an analysis and defining criterion of urban policies, especially because it allows the incorporation of the human dimension and of the everyday life scale into the urban planning practice.
59

台北市商業空間結構之研究 / A Study for the Commercial Spatial Structure in Taipei

黃名義, Huang, Ming Yih Unknown Date (has links)
商業設施活動類型由傳統的零星雜貨店鋪、市場、超市、百貨公司、量販店至大型購物中心等,發展型態,由據點、沿街路線、核心商業區、至目前郊區化發展的大型購物中心,整個商業活動蓬勃發展。但相對的也衍生了各種商業空間結構問題,致使都市機能品質日益惡化。因此,本研究擬從臺北市商業發展體系內之主要商業核心區進行實證分析,探討商業核心區空間層級如何界定及商業核心區區位如何選擇與競爭?期使商業活動發展由空間結構所規範。建立完善之商業空間體系。   本論文共有六章,二十二節,相關內容如下:   第一章:介紹研究動機、目的、研究範圍、內容、方法與流程。   第二章:說明商業空間結構相關結構理論基礎與研究模式,並對重要名詞加以定義,回顧相關文獻,以作為本研究分析乏基礎。   第三章:依中地理論背景,由供給面分析台北市商業空間結構,以商業設施規模複雜性分析、商業機能分析與二元變數法分析,界定出台北市25個商業核心區為四類空間層級。   第四章:依消費者行為活動理論,由需求面分析台北市商業空間結構,以消費者社經層級、消費型態、消費行為活動分析與群落分析,分別界定出台北市25個商業核心區各屬性的空間層級劃分。   第五章:以同層級商業核心區進行區位選擇競爭分析,本文以第三層級商業核心區進行供需因素綜合評比,並選出最佳區位地點南港商業核心區。   第六章:綜合前文分析,認為空間結構應由中地理論與消費活動理論一同建構,並依同層級商業核心區作為區位設址選擇分析之基準,最後,提出本研究之結論與建議。
60

低碳都市評估及其空間結構之分析 / Evaluating the Efficiency of Low-Carbon City and Analyzing the Effects of Spatial Structure on Carbon Emissions

沈育生, Shen, Yu Sheng Unknown Date (has links)
都市CO2的過量排放,是造成全球氣候暖化與環境變異的主因之一。低碳都市的發展成為目前永續發展的核心議題,亦是抑制氣候暖化的關鍵。低碳都市的概念,包括空間和非空間維度。空間維度探討了都市型態、土地利用與運輸系統,非空間維度則著眼於經濟、能源使用和節能產品。然而過去低碳方面的研究,多聚焦於非空間維度之探討上,甚少關注空間維度面向,但面對全球氣候暖化與低碳發展,都市不僅可落實低碳發展政策,其規劃更在低碳都市的建設與發展過程中扮演關鍵角色。因此,本研究依循「全球考量,在地行動」之概念及方式,以低碳都市為主軸,並以空間規劃及環境經濟之角度切入,針對低碳都市衡量指標建構及分析、縣市低碳效率評估及低碳政策影響效果之探討、都市發展及空間結構與碳量間關係之探討等三項研究主題,進行實證分析與探討,企圖補強低碳都市在空間維度之論述,使都市的低碳化有所依循,亦使都市能藉此更達低碳與永續之目標。 在「低碳都市衡量指標系統之建構及探討」主題上,以台灣為實證案例,根據低碳都市的內涵、理念與目標,研撰適宜之衡量指標系統,透過因子分析定權法進行衡量指標的擇取,藉此評估台灣各縣市的低碳發展狀態。根據實證結果,顯示台灣的低碳都市評估指標系統,包括「環境品質及資源消耗」、「經濟及建設」、「財政及資源循環」、「社會狀態」等4構面,共22個指標;而台灣各縣市在低碳發展的綜合表現上,以台北市的狀態最佳,而以彰化縣表現最差。 而在「縣市低碳發展效率評估及低碳政策影響效果之探討」主題上,以台灣各縣市作為實證案例,在考量非意欲產出下(碳排放威脅、環境污染衝擊),透過DEA中的不良產出模型(Bad Outputs Model)評估縣市低碳發展效率,並藉由Tobit模型,釐清低碳政策對縣市低碳發展效率之影響效果。依據不良產出模型之效率評估結果,顯示臺北市、新竹市、臺東縣、花蓮縣在低碳發展效率上相對具有效率,且已達最適規模水準;而高雄縣是目前亟待改善的首要縣市。此外,藉由Tobit模式的實證分析,其結果顯示工廠家數、資源回收量、市區公車系統路線總長、具綠建築標章的建物數、綠地面積等變數,對縣市低碳發展效率有顯著影響,其中,除工廠家數對縣市低碳發展效率有負向影響外,其餘變數皆呈正向影響效果。而由此亦得知產業結構、資源循環利用、低碳運輸、低碳建築、碳匯規劃等低碳政策,對於縣市低碳發展效率是顯著有效的。 在「都市發展及空間結構與碳量關係之探討」主題上,以台灣各縣市作為實證案例,透過偏最小平方法的分析,實證都市發展及空間結構對碳量之影響關係與影響程度,並找出低碳都市發展中關鍵的空間規劃要素。而根據偏最小平方法的實證結果,顯示都市混合度、都市發展強度及密度與都市綠化對碳淨存量產生負向影響,亦即都市混合度、都市緊密度及綠化程度愈高,愈能減少碳淨存量;而都市工業機能、都市交通狀態對碳淨存量有正向影響,亦即都市工業機能與都市交通狀態愈高,愈會增加碳淨存量,其中又以都市交通狀態的影響效果最大。 綜合上述,本研究之研究成果包括:「釐清低碳都市模糊且紛雜的概念及內涵」、「建構適宜台灣本土的低碳都市衡量指標系統」、「評估台灣各縣市低碳發展之整體狀態」、「評估台灣各縣市之低碳發展效率」、「檢視台灣現行低碳政策對於縣市低碳發展效率之影響效果」及「找出低碳都市發展中關鍵的空間規劃要素」,期待此些成果,能作為地方政府或規劃單位於低碳目標下,進行低碳都市發展及規劃開發時之參考。 / Excessive CO2 emission is one of the main causes of causing global warming and climate change. Therefore, low-carbon urban development is currently the core issue in sustainable development, and it is also the key to curb climate warming. The concept of the low-carbon city includes spatial dimension and non-spatial dimension. The former contains the issues of urban form, transportation system, and land use planning, the latter contains the issues of economy, energy consuming, and energy saving product. The spatial dimension plays the important role in the construction and development of the low-carbon city, but only the few studies focused on. Therefore, this paper takes the spatial dimension of the low-carbon city as the main scope, and discusses the topics of “research on low-carbon city indicator system”, “evaluating the low-carbon efficiency of city and analyzing its influential policies”, and “the effects of urban development and spatial structure on carbon emissions”. In the topics of “research on low-carbon city indicator system”, this paper takes cities and counties of Taiwan as the empirical cases, and uses factor analysis to establish the appropriate low-carbon city indicator system for Taiwan. Furthermore, this paper evaluates the cities'/counties' status of low-carbon developments by this low-carbon city indicator system. According to the empirical results, there are four evaluating aspects of the low-carbon city: 1) environmental quality and resource consumption, 2) economy and construction, 3) finance and resource recycling and 4) social status. Based on the comprehensive performance of the low-carbon city indicator system, Taipei City shows the best performance, whereas Changhua County shows the worst performance. In the topics of “evaluating the low-carbon efficiency of the city and analyzing its influential policies”, this paper takes cities and counties of Taiwan as the empirical cases, and assesses low-carbon efficiency of the city by Bad Outputs Model. Moreover, this paper uses Tobit Model to analyze the influence of low-carbon policies on the low-carbon efficiency of the city. According to the result of Bad Outputs Model, Taipei City, Hsinchu City, Taitung County, and Hualien County are efficiency, and achieve the optimal scale level. Moreover, Kaohsiung County is the county in the most urgent need of improvement. Another result of Tobit model indicates that the industrial unit has the negative impact on the low-carbon efficiency of the city. Moreover, resource recovery, the total length of the urban bus route, the number of green buildings, and green area all have the positive impact on the low-carbon efficiency of the city. In the topics of “the effects of urban development and spatial structure on carbon emissions”, this paper takes cities and counties of Taiwan as the empirical cases, and uses partial least squares method (PLS) to identify the impact of urban development and spatial structure on carbon emissions. The empirical results show that the mixed land use, urban intensity and density, and urban greening all have the negative impact on carbon emissions. Moreover, industrial function and urban transportation all have a positive impact on carbon emissions. Finally, these results can be used as reference for future low-carbon urban planning and policy.

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