A identidade compartilhada de países em desenvolvimento confere ao Brasil e à República Popular da China interesses similares no cenário internacional e fortalece os elementos que compõem a relação bilateral, consolidando o caráter estratégico dessa parceria. A complementaridade econômica impulsiona os fluxos comerciais e os investimentos entre esses Países. O anseio pelo estabelecimento de uma nova ordem política e econômica, favorável à realização dos projetos nacionais de desenvolvimento econômico e social, estimula a aproximação e a cooperação em fóruns multilaterais, como na Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU) e na Organização Mundial do Comércio (OMC). A extensão dos campos de cooperação para outras áreas estratégicas, como a ciência e tecnologia, remete ganhos substanciais à indústria, à economia e à comunidade científica dos Países. A parceria estratégica entre o Brasil e a China está centrada nesses aspectos, que podem ser sintetizados em três vertentes: econômica e comercial; política; e científico-tecnológica. Essas vertentes não esgotam a realidade e a capacidade de cooperação entre os Países, mas constituem as áreas que apresentam os resultados mais significativos. Essa dissertação propõe uma leitura sobre as contribuições da política externa brasileira à parceria estratégica, durante o governo Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2002) e durante os três primeiros anos de governo Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2005), com base na evolução das três vertentes. / The shared identity of developing countries remits to Brazil and the People`s Republic of China similar interests on the international scene and strengthens the elements that compose the bilateral relation, consolidating the strategic character of this partnership. The economic complementarity drives on the commercial flow and the investments between these Countries. The craving for the establishment of a new political and economic order, favorable to the accomplishment of the national projects of social and economic development, stimulates the approximation and the cooperation on multilateral forums, such as United Nations (UN) and World Trade Organization (WTO). The extension of the cooperation fields to other strategic areas, such as science and technology, remits substantial gains for the Countries industry, economy, and scientific community. The strategic partnership between Brazil and China relies on these aspects, which can be summarized into three tracks: trade and economics; political; and scientific-technological. These tracks do not exhaust the reality and the capability of cooperation between the Countries, although they present the most significant results. This dissertation proposes a reading about the Brazilian foreign policy contributions for the strategic partnership, during Fernando Henrique Cardoso`s government (1995-2002) and the first three years of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva`s government (2003-2005), based on the evolutions of these tracks.

A identidade compartilhada de países em desenvolvimento confere ao Brasil e à República Popular da China interesses similares no cenário internacional e fortalece os elementos que compõem a relação bilateral, consolidando o caráter estratégico dessa parceria. A complementaridade econômica impulsiona os fluxos comerciais e os investimentos entre esses Países. O anseio pelo estabelecimento de uma nova ordem política e econômica, favorável à realização dos projetos nacionais de desenvolvimento econômico e social, estimula a aproximação e a cooperação em fóruns multilaterais, como na Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU) e na Organização Mundial do Comércio (OMC). A extensão dos campos de cooperação para outras áreas estratégicas, como a ciência e tecnologia, remete ganhos substanciais à indústria, à economia e à comunidade científica dos Países. A parceria estratégica entre o Brasil e a China está centrada nesses aspectos, que podem ser sintetizados em três vertentes: econômica e comercial; política; e científico-tecnológica. Essas vertentes não esgotam a realidade e a capacidade de cooperação entre os Países, mas constituem as áreas que apresentam os resultados mais significativos. Essa dissertação propõe uma leitura sobre as contribuições da política externa brasileira à parceria estratégica, durante o governo Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2002) e durante os três primeiros anos de governo Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2005), com base na evolução das três vertentes. / The shared identity of developing countries remits to Brazil and the People`s Republic of China similar interests on the international scene and strengthens the elements that compose the bilateral relation, consolidating the strategic character of this partnership. The economic complementarity drives on the commercial flow and the investments between these Countries. The craving for the establishment of a new political and economic order, favorable to the accomplishment of the national projects of social and economic development, stimulates the approximation and the cooperation on multilateral forums, such as United Nations (UN) and World Trade Organization (WTO). The extension of the cooperation fields to other strategic areas, such as science and technology, remits substantial gains for the Countries industry, economy, and scientific community. The strategic partnership between Brazil and China relies on these aspects, which can be summarized into three tracks: trade and economics; political; and scientific-technological. These tracks do not exhaust the reality and the capability of cooperation between the Countries, although they present the most significant results. This dissertation proposes a reading about the Brazilian foreign policy contributions for the strategic partnership, during Fernando Henrique Cardoso`s government (1995-2002) and the first three years of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva`s government (2003-2005), based on the evolutions of these tracks.

Panel data analysis is the modern approach of statistical and econometric modeling. The aim of the thesis is to estimate the gravity model of international trade in alcoholic beverages in the form of bilateral trade flow depending on the gross domestic product and other associated variables that facilitate trading. The data have a panel structure. Based on the results of panel unit root tests the stationarity of variables in the panel and the expected long-term relationship between the analyzed variables are tested. Gravity model is assuming the existence of long-term relationships built through various methods, such as pooling OLS estimate, fixed and random effects models, cointegrated regression DOLS and FMOLS. Cointegration relationship is verified by Pedroni panel test.

Die Organisation von Handelsstrukturen bringt seit je her weitreichende soziale, politische sowie ökonomische Implikationen mit sich. Da die zugrundeliegenden Dynamiken von Handelssystemen a priori unbekannt sind bieten Konzepte aus der Theorie komplexer Systeme nützliche Werkzeuge, um neue Muster zu entdecken, sowie neue Hypothesen zu den Vorgängen innerhalb der Handelssysteme zu entwickeln. Einen nützlichen Ansatz stellen dabei komplexe Netzwerke dar, da Handelsströme zwischen ökonomischen Einheiten sinnvoll als Knoten und Verbindungen im Netzwerk darstellbar sind. In dieser Arbeit erweitern wir spezielle Methoden auf komplexen Netzwerken, um die Netzwerk-Topologie des Handels auf globaler und auf nationaler Ebene zu untersuchen. Auf dem Level einzelner Industriesektoren erhalten wir neue Einblicke in die topologische Struktur des internationalen Handelsnetzwerks. Dazu führen wir neue Netzwerkmaße ein, welche die Funktion von Knoten in Subgraphen unter dem Blickwinkel, dass das Gesamtsystem durch ein Netzwerk aus mehreren Subnetzwerken dargestellt wird, beschreiben. Im Zuge der Globalisierung gewinnen bilaterale Handelsabkommen bei Entscheidungsträgern an Aufmerksamkeit und werden in zunehmender Zahl verhandelt. Wir entwickeln in dieser Arbeit einen neuen Ansatz, um die Auswirkungen dieser Abkommen auf die beteiligten Ökonomien zu analysieren und zu quantifizieren. Weiterhin behandeln wir die Fragestellung, in welchem Maß Handel als ein Übermittler von Nachfrage- und Angebotsveränderungen auf andere Industrien angesehen werden kann. Schließlich betrachten wir Handelsnetzwerke auf der Ebene von einzelnen Firmen und beschreiben die Funktion von einzelnen Knoten, insbesondere deren Rolle innerhalb von 3er-Motiven. Obwohl alle Methoden und Maße, die wir im Zuge dieser Arbeit einführen, aus Fragen im Kontext des Handels motiviert sind, sind die methodischen Konzepte auf komplexe Netzwerke in anderen Forschungsrichtungen anwendbar. / The organization of trade and its patterns and structures have always had far reaching implications among social, political and economic dimensions. The underlying dynamics of trade systems are often a priori unknown and concepts from complex system theory provide useful tools to discover new patterns and to develop new hypotheses on the mechanisms of the system. Complex networks offer a particularly useful approach to trade systems, as trade flows between economic entities can be intuitively and meaningfully represented as nodes and links in a network. In this thesis, we extend specific methods of complex networks with a focus on the relations between different subnetworks to investigate the network topology of trade on both the global and national scale. On an aggregation level considering individual industries as nodes, we obtain new insights about the topological structure of the international trade network by introducing new network measures that characterize the roles of nodes in subnetworks from a network of networks perspective. During the process of globalization bilateral trade agreements have received rising attention among policy makers and have been negotiated at an increasing pace. Here, we develop a framework to analyze and quantify impacts of these agreements on the involved economies. A further question that we address is to what extent trade can be regarded as a mediator of demand and supply spillovers to other industries. Finally, we look into trade networks at the scale of individual business firms and describe the role of nodes with a focus on 3-node motifs. Although all new methods and measures introduced in this thesis are motivated by questions in the context of trade, the methodological concepts are widely applicable to complex networks of other research disciplines.

We study the impact of US presidential election TV debates on intraday exchange rates of 96 currencies from 1996 to 2016. Expectations about protectionist measures are the main transmission channel of debate outcomes. Currencies of countries with high levels of bilateral foreign trade with the US depreciate if the election probability of the protectionist candidate increases during the debate. We rationalize our results in a model where a debate victory of a protectionist candidate raises expectations about future tariffs and reduces future net exports to the US, resulting in relative depreciation of currencies with high bilateral trade integration.

Научная новизна исследования заключается в следующем. Уточнено понятие «финансовое сотрудничество» в контексте российско-китайских торгово-экономических отношений. Систематизированы основные направления финансового сотрудничества между Россией и Китаем, в том числе в приграничных территориях Дальнего Востока, выявлены проблемы и перспективы развития. Практическая значимость исследования заключается в выявлении недостатков и перспектив развития финансового сотрудничества, аналитические аспекты которых могут быть использованы в деятельности российских и китайских организаций, осуществляющих двухсторонние финансово-экономические операции. / The scientific novelty of the study is as follows. The concept of "financial cooperation" in the context of Russian-Chinese trade and economic relations has been clarified. The main directions of financial cooperation between Russia and China, including in the border territories of the Far East, are systematized, problems and prospects for development are identified. The practical significance of the study is to identify the shortcomings and prospects for the development of financial cooperation, the analytical aspects of which can be used in the activities of Russian and Chinese organizations engaged in bilateral financial and economic transactions.

Объем магистерской диссертации 97 страницы основного текста, для иллюстрации использованы 13 таблиц, 9 рисунков. Библиографический список состоит из 83 источника. Актуальность темы магистерской диссертации связана с усилением торгово-экономического сотрудничества между Китаем и Россией, оказавшихся в условиях экономических санкций. Целью исследования является изучение торговли между Китаем и Россией и оценка новых возможностей для ее развития в условиях санкций. В соответствии с целью исследования были поставлены задачи: Изучить теории развития международной торговли и составить методологическую базу исследования; Изучить научную литературу, посвященную международной торговли Китая и России: выявить актуальные направления исследований и сформировать представления об особенностях российско-китайской торговли; Выявить этапы развития двухсторонней российско-китайской торговли и их характеристики; Провести анализ текущего состояния развития российско-китайской торговли; Провести анализ влияние торговых войн на развитие торговли между США и Китаем; Провести анализ конкурентоспособности российско-китайской торговли; Выявить возможности для развития взаимодополняемости в торговле между Китаем и Россией; Провести эмпирическую оценку эффектов российско-китайской торговли; Разработать рекомендации по развитию российско-китайской международной торговли. К научной новизне исследования относится разработка комплекса методов (явный индекс сравнительных преимуществ, анализ экспортного сходства, анализ товарных различий и комплексный индекс китайско-российской торговой взаимодополняемости), позволяющих объективно описать взаимодополняющий и конкурентный статус-кво китайско-российской торговли товарами. Кроме того, для анализа факторов, влияющих на российско-китайскую торговлю, предложена авторская модификация гравитационной модели, включающая в себя новые факторы. Практическая значимость, заключается в разработке предложений, которые помогут решить проблему несбалансированного развития российско-китайской торговли, повысить уровень развития российско-китайской торговли, значительно улучшить и оптимизировать структуру торговли между Россией и Китаем. Внедрение данных рекомендаций будет способствовать улучшению торговых отношений между Китаем и Россией. / The volume of the master's thesis is 97 pages of the main text, 13 tables, 9 figures and the appendix are used to illustrate. The bibliographic list consists of 83 sources. The relevance of the topic of the master's thesis is related to the strengthening of trade and economic cooperation between China and Russia, which found themselves in the conditions of economic sanctions. The purpose of the study is to study trade between China and Russia and assess new opportunities for its development in the face of sanctions. In accordance with the purpose of the study , the following tasks were set: To study the theories of the development of international trade and to make a methodological basis for the study; Study the scientific literature on the international trade of China and Russia: to identify current research directions and form ideas about the peculiarities of Russian-Chinese trade; Identify the stages of development of bilateral Russian-Chinese trade and their characteristics; To analyze the current state of development of Russian-Chinese trade; Analyze the impact of trade wars on the development of trade between the United States and China; To analyze the competitiveness of Russian-Chinese trade; Identify opportunities for the development of complementarity in trade between China and Russia; To conduct an empirical assessment of the effects of Russian-Chinese trade; Develop recommendations for the development of Russian-Chinese international trade. The scientific novelty of the research includes the development of a set of methods (explicit index of comparative advantages, analysis of export similarities, analysis of commodity differences and a comprehensive index of Sino-Russian trade complementarity) that allow objectively describing the complementary and competitive status quo of Sino-Russian trade in goods. In addition, to analyze the factors affecting Russian-Chinese trade, the author's modification of the gravity model, including new factors, is proposed. The practical significance of the research is lies in the development of proposals that will help solve the problem of the unbalanced development of Russian-Chinese trade, increase the level of development of Russian-Chinese trade, significantly improve and optimize the structure of trade between Russia and China. The implementation of these recommendations will contribute to the improvement of trade relations between China and Russia.

Η οικονομικη και νομισματικη ενωση (ονε) οδηγησε στην υιοθετηση του ενιαιου ευρωπαϊκου νομισματοσ, του ευρω, που αντικατεστησε τα εθνικα νομισματα των χωρων που συμμετεχουν στο συστημα αυτο. Το μεγεθοσ τησ επιδρασησ του ενιαιου νομισματοσ στο διμερεσ εμποριο μεταξυ των χωρων που το εχουν υιοθετησει εχει απασχολησει τη διεθνη βιβλιογραφια και εχουν προκυψει ποικιλα συμπερασματα. Ετσι, ορισμενοι συγγραφεισ βρισκουν πολυ μικρη επιδραση, ενω υπαρχουν και καποιοι, που μιλουν για τριπλασιασμο του εμποριου. Στην παρουσα μελετη, χρησιμοποιωντασ χωρεσ τησ εε οσο και εκτοσ αυτησ, εκτιμηθηκαν με τη μεθοδο ελαχιστων τετραγωνων (ols) δυο εναλλακτικα στατικα υποδειγματα, οπου μελετηθηκε η επιδραση του ευρω, σε συνδυασμο με αλλουσ παραγοντεσ, οπωσ για παραδειγμα τη γλωσσα, τη γεωγραφικη αποσταση, τη συναψη εμπορικων συμφωνιων. Διαπιστωθηκε μια θετικη και στατιστικα σημαντικη επιδραση του ενιαιου νομισματοσ, καθωσ και μια μικρη και αρνητικη επιρροη τησ μεταβλητικοτητασ των συναλλαγματικων ισοτιμιων στο διεθνεσ εμποριο. Ωστοσο, θα πρεπει να ειμαστε προσεκτικοι με τα ευρηματα αυτα, καθωσ απαιτειται βαθοσ χρονου, προκειμενου να διαφανει πληρωσ η επιδραση του ενιαιου νομισματοσ στισ εμπορικεσ συναλλαγεσ των χωρων που το χρησιμοποιουν. / The economic and monetary union (emu) led to the adoption of a single european currency, namely euro, that replaced the national currencies of the countries, which partipicate in this system. The magnitude of the effect of a single currency in the bilateral trade between the countries that have adopted it has been dealt with in the international bibliography, resulting in various conclusions. Thus, some authors find a very small effect, whereas others report a triplication of trade. In this study, by using both eu and non-eu countries, a pair of alternative static models were estimated, by means of the ols method. The effect of euro,in combination with other factors, for example the language, the geographical distance and free trade areas, was studied. It was found that there exists a positive and statistically significant effect of the single currency and a small and negative influence of the variability of exchange rates in the international trade. However, it would be wise to assess these findings with extra care, bearing in mind that a long period of time is required, for the effect of the single currency on the commercial transactions of the countries that have adopted it to be fully revealed.

This dissertation thesis consists of six papers on macroeconomics, international economics, and energy economics. All the papers are tied together by the use of meta-regression analysis, which is essential for the derivation of robust policy-relevant conclusions from often conflicting results presented in the empirical literature. I use meta-analysis to quantitatively synthesize the reported research results on a given topic, correct the literature for publication selection bias, and filter out the effect of various misspecifications present in some primary studies. My results can be summarized as follows: 1) The elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption, a key input to all dynamic models in finance and macroeconomics, varies significantly across countries. The differences can be explained by the level of stock market participation, when countries with higher participation exhibit larger values of the elasticity; the mean reported elasticity is 0.5. 2) The effect of borders on international trade, which most authors find to be surprisingly large, can be explained away by innovations in methodology introduced in the last decade. When these innovations are taken into account jointly, the border effect disappears for developed countries, and is relatively small for developing countries. 3) When...

This study examines the fundamental determinants of bilateral trade flows between South Africa and BRIC countries. This is done by exploring the magnitude of exports among these countries. The Gravity model approach is used as the preferred theoretical framework in explaining and evaluating successfully the bilateral trade flows between South Africa and BRIC countries The empirical part of this study uses panel data methodology covering the time period 2000-2012 and incorporates the five BRICS economies in the sample. The results of the regressions are subject to panel diagnostic test procedures. The study reveals that, on the one hand, there are positive and significant relationships between South African export flows with the BRICs and distance, language dummy, the BRICs’ GDP, the BRICs’ openness and population in South Africa. On the other hand, GDP in South Africa, real exchange rate and time dummy are found to be negatively related to export flows. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)