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應用個體選擇模式檢驗促銷活動之成效余思瑩 Unknown Date (has links)
個體選擇模式(discrete choice model)廣泛應用於國外的交通運輸及行銷領域,而國內交通運輸領域,也長期以此模式分析個體的運具選擇行為。反觀國內的行銷領域,因較難取得消費者的商品品牌購買紀錄,而鮮少應用個體選擇模式分析消費者的選擇行為。有鑒於此,本研究嘗試以問卷收集消費者對三個洗髮精品牌的選擇行為,以個體選擇模式中的多項邏輯模式(multinomial logit model)、巢狀邏輯模式(nested multinomial logit model)、混合多項邏輯模式(mixed logit model)進行分析,檢驗問卷設計中的促銷活動、消費者特性對選擇行為的影響性。
實證分析的結果發現,洗髮精的原價格及促銷折扣、贈品容量、加量不加價等促銷活動,皆對消費者的選擇行為有顯著的影響力,其中促銷折扣與贈品容量影響的程度較大,是較具有效果的促銷活動。而消費者的性別、年齡、職業及品牌更換的頻率,皆影響洗髮精的選擇行為。此外,消費者若固定選擇自己最常購買的洗髮精,此類型的消費者與其他人的品牌選擇行為,也有顯著的不同。
此外,根據本研究樣本,我們也發現海倫仙度絲與潘婷間的替代、互補性較強。 / Discrete choice model has been demonstrated to be a useful tool for analyzing consumers’ choice behavior data in the area of transportation and marketing research. However, since a complete data set containing consumers’ history of purchase behavior was rarely available to public, the model was less popular in the marketing research area than in the transportation research in Taiwan.
Based on limited survey data on consumers’ choice among three different brands of shampoo, we applied multinomial logit model、nested multinomial logit model、mixed logit model in this study to understand promotion program’s effect on consumers’ choice behavior , the result showed that shampoos’ original price、discount、volume of hair conditioner bestowal、more volume with the same price all had significant impacts on consumers’ choice behavior, among them, discount and volume of hair conditioner bestowel influenced more .In addition, consumers’ gender、age、occupation and frequency of changing brands also affected consumers on choosing brands of shampoos. The study also found that a consumer who chose the same brand regularly behaved notably differently.
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風險與租稅對政府補貼, 消費者休閒與產業投資影響之研究 / The Effect of Risk and Taxation on Government Subsidy, Consumer's Leisure and Industry Investment潘聖潔, Pan, Sheng-Chieh Unknown Date (has links)
本研究共包含三篇論文,首先修正von Hagen and Hepp(2000)所建立模型分析政府的財源轉移之風險分散與重分配動態效果。整體而言,補助與協助收入或統籌分配款所產生的所得與稅收風險分散或重分配效果相當有限,且各分區(北、中、南與全區)的結論差異甚大,顯示財源轉移發揮的效率不足。統籌分配款對於改善稅收的風險分散與重分配上,效果優於補助與協助收入。各縣市取得的補助與協助收入或統籌分配款高於長期所得與稅收風險分散與重分配所應對應的額度,造成資源浪費。就全區而言,前幾期稅收(所得)風險分散變化,可作為短期調整補助與協助收入(統籌分配款)的依據;統籌分配款與稅收的風險分散、補助與協助收入或統籌分配款與稅收重分配均存在雙向因果關係。
其次,在分析勞動者的休閒時間選擇時,本文修正跨期選擇模型,考慮勞動者持有投資組合與採取避險措施,並面對租稅問題下,以導出休閒時間方程式。實證上採用混合估計法針對12種樣本產業及兩種不同休閒時間衡量方式進行估計,結果顯示不同休閒時間衡量方式,影響估計結果甚鉅;金融市場的變化與波動攸關休閒時間變動:國內外利率、匯率與遠期匯率等與投資組合報酬相關的變數,在多數情況下顯著地影響休閒時間變動,且各變數對於休閒時間的影響程度,在工業中的次級產業大於服務業中的次產業。此外,採行周休二日制度確實改變制度採行前後的休閒時間,惟在三個工業次產業上則不明顯。
最後,修正Bo and Sterken (2002) 所建立的最適動態模型,分析公司價值不確定與租稅措施對海運廠商投資的影響,經由最大化公司價值導出影響台灣海運公司投資的三種不確定來源與避險措施,並進行實證估計。實證結果顯示,不確定的衡量方式攸關投資函數的估計結果,以指數加權移動平均標準差衡量不確定時,其估計結果優於以GARCH(1,1)衡量不確定,隱含廠商較在乎可預期波動對投資的影響。一般而言,廠商利率與原油價格的波動增加,均不利於公司投資,其中以原油價格不確定對於投資的影響最大,其效果約略與廠商利率相當。其次,影響海運公司投資最重要的三項因素均分別為BDI、負債與廠商利率,顯示價格與債務規模的重要性更甚於利率。此外,三種公司價值不確定來源對投資的影響,在多數個別公司之間並無顯著的差異,有助於採行總體財金政策以刺激投資。 / This dissertation contains three articles. First I revise the models set up by von Hagen and Hepp (2000) to analyze the dynamic effects of the Aid and Assistance and central government’s Tax Redistribution Fund on income (or tax) risk sharing and redistribution. For all the counties in Taiwan area the effects are tiny, but those are diverse among the counties in each Taiwan sub-area. The Aid and Assistance and central government’s Tax Redistribution Fund actually obtained by each county are larger than the amounts required to maintain long-term risk sharing and redistribution effects. These all imply that fiscal transfer is inefficiency. The effects of the central government’s Tax Redistribution Fund on risk sharing and redistribution are larger than those of Aid and Assistance. The central government can adjust the Aid and Assistance based on the change of earlier-period ax (income) risk sharing effect. Moreover, the existence of significant short-run interaction between the central government’s Tax Redistribution Fund and tax risk sharing, the Aid and Assistance and tax redistribution.
Secondly, I revise intertemporal choice model by considering portfolio selection, hedging and taxation problems to derive economic agent’s leisure time equation. In empirical study, we focus on twelve sample industries and two different leisure time measurements, then adopt pooled estimation to estimate leisure time equation. Empirical results show that different measurement of leisure time influences estimation outcomes tremendously. Furthermore, the financial variables affecting portfolio return, including domestic and foreign interest rates, exchange rate and forward rate almost have remarkable effect on leisure time. Finally, the effect of each explanatory variable on leisure time is larger in industry than in service industry.
Finally, I revise the optimal intertemporal model, constructed by Bo and Sterken (2002), by maximizing corporate value to derive three uncertainty sources and hedging influencing shipping-firm investment. Empirical evidences show that it is relevant for the estimation results to adopt which methods to measure the uncertainty. The outcomes derived from taking the Exponential Weighted Moving Average model to measure uncertainty are better than those from adopting the GARCH(1,1) model. Generally, as the volatilities in firm’s interest rate and crude oil price increase, firm investment decreases and the effect of crude oil price uncertainty on investment, the largest among the four effects, is nearly equal to that of firm interest rate on investment. Furthermore, BDI, debt and firm interest rate are the most important variables influencing firm investment. Finally, the effects of three uncertainty sources on investment are almost indifferent among the ten shipping-firms.
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國際學生來臺趨勢、擇國擇校過程及滿意度之研究 / Tendency, decision-making processes, and satisfaction of international students in Taiwan張琦, Chang, Chi Unknown Date (has links)
近來,臺灣教育部為招收更多國際學生而實行新政策。本研究分析政策實行的效果、學生來臺原因及在臺學生的滿意度。研究一以時間序列分析1954至2008年的國際學生人數,ARIMA模式的預測效果良好(RER=0.83%),未來三年內國際學生人數將突破二萬人。研究二以問卷調查分析學生選擇留學國家及學校的選擇因素,同時分析學生來臺動機、所遇困難及在臺滿意度間的關係 (N=210)。結果顯示容易的簽證程序及臺灣的學術聲望影響學生來臺讀書;此外,財務、後勤及生活條件影響學生選擇留學學校。學生因臺學術聲望來臺且無食物適應困難者,願意再次來臺念書;學生因具吸引力課程及方便生活環境來臺且無硬體設備及學習適應方面困難者,願意建議他人來臺留學。根據研究結果,政府應加強國內教學品質,並協助提升學校學術聲望;增加赴海外任教教師,以教學專業提升我國國際形象。有興趣吸引國際學生的學校應可從健全學校行政體制著手,並聚焦於完善學生招生、入學諮詢輔導工作及協助生活適應。 / Recently, the Taiwanese Ministry of Education has implemented a new policy to recruit more international students. This study analyzes the policy’s effects and the reasons motivating students to study in Taiwan. The number of international students in Taiwan from 1954 to 2008 was used to generate a time series model to estimate the number of international students before and after the policy implementation. This ARIMA model (RER=0.83%) demonstrated a dramatic increase in the number of international students over the years. Using a questionnaire designed to examine determinants that affect international students’ decisions for choosing Taiwan and their respective schools (N=210), this study then study the relationship between the students’ motivations, the challenges they faced, and their degree of satisfaction with their experiences. Results demonstrated that an easy visa application process and Taiwan’s acclaimed academic reputation attracted students. Furthermore, financial, logistical, and living reasons affected the students’ choices in schools. Students who found living and educational conditions favorable and who felt intellectually stimulated would choose again to study in Taiwan and would recommend others to do so. Based on these results, the government should strengthen the quality of instruction and further promote Taiwan’s universities abroad. Schools interested in attracting international students should develop structured administrative systems focused on recruiting students and helping them transition into a new environment.
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Determinants and transmission of monetary policy in China / Déterminants et transmission de la politique monétaire en ChineLunven, Sandrine 17 December 2015 (has links)
L’objectif est d’analyser les déterminants et les mécanismes de transmission de la politique monétaire en Chine au cours des deux décennies passées. Elle contribue à la littérature par le biais de deux nouvelles mesures de la politique monétaire en Chine, l'une combinant les instruments utilisés par la banque centrale et l'autre basée sur les discours de la banque centrale sur la politique monétaire. Ces deux approches permettent de prendre en compte le comportement complexe et adaptatif de la banque centrale. Ces mesures permettent de mettre en évidence des changements substantiels dans le style de la politique à partir de 2002, plus graduelle et agressive envers l’inflation, en lien avec le début du mandat du gouverneur Xiaochuan, le processus de libéralisation des taux d’intérêt et l’ouverture commerciale et financière de la Chine. De plus, l’estimation d’un modèle à choix discret révèle une politique monétaire caractérisée par une politique accommodante sur l’inflation avant 2002 et un ciblage implicite de l’inflation à partir de 2002, similaire à celles du G3 pré- et post-1979. Enfin, cette thèse analyse les facteurs expliquant la déformation de la courbe des taux obligataires en Chine au cours de la dernière décennie. Alors que le contrôle des taux d’intérêt peut entraver l’usage de la courbe de taux comme référence pour évaluer les actifs risqués, celle-ci évolue bien en lien avec les autres instruments, la situation macroéconomique en Chine et de plus en plus aux communications de la banque centrale. Enfin, nos analyses révèlent l’influence de la politique monétaire américaine sur celle de la Chine et sur l’évolution de la courbe de taux sur la décennie passée. / The objective of this thesis is to enhance the understanding of the determinants and the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in China over the last two decades. It contributes to the literature providing two new composite measures of monetary policy in China based on alternative approaches, one combining the large range of monetary policy instruments and the other based on central bank speeches. Both prove to be essential to take into account the complex and adaptive behavior of the People’s Bank of China (PBC). Our instrument-based monetary policy index emphasizes substantial changes in policy style towards smoother but more hawkish policy moves from 2002 onwards, consistent with the start of the mandate of Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, the interest rate liberalization process and the increasing trade and financial opening. Moreover, the estimation of a discrete-choice model implies a conduct of monetary policy characterized by an inflation-accommodating policy before 2002 and an implicit inflation targeting from 2002 onwards, which respectively resembles that of pre-1979 and post-1979 policy of the G3. Our thesis examines the deformation of the bond yield curve over the last decade to evaluate monetary policy transmission mechanisms. While regulated interest rates can hamper the use of the yield curve as benchmark for pricing risk, the latter moves in line with the other instruments, the macroeconomic situation, and increasingly to central bank communication, a crucial step toward a market oriented system. Finally, US monetary policy significantly affects monetary policy determinants and transmission mechanisms in China, particularly from its WTO accession in 2001.
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駐車場所-駐車時間選択行動への離散-連続選択モデルの適用と駐車料金施策分析三輪, 富生, MIWA, Tomio, 山本, 俊行, YAMAMOTO, Toshiyuki, 森川, 高行, MORIKAWA, Takayuki January 2008 (has links)
No description available.
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家戶住宅調整決策與區位選擇之研究-兼論女性的影響力分析 / Households' Housing Adjustment Decisions and Location Choice in Taipei — A Discussion of Female Decision-making Power陳淑美 Unknown Date (has links)
國內對於住宅需求的相關研究,多偏向住宅價格、合理房價與購買力、消費量等研究,但是對於消費者住宅選擇行為的研究則較少見。住宅需求的主體以個體的家戶為單位,家戶在所得的限制之下,追求效用的最大化,做出遷移決策、區位選擇、增建決策等。
觀察台灣的都市現象,台北市的房價所得比高達8倍以上,不但居全台灣之冠,更遠超過歐美國家的水準,國內高房價的壓力會影響家戶的遷移成本與區位選擇。另外,在台北市的住宅類型八成以上為公寓大廈,只能從陽台或屋頂平台小幅增建,增加的住宅面積有限,未申請建照的增建多屬不合法的違建行為,無法自由調整,因此家戶採取增建方式調整住宅需求的行為會受到限制。而國內住、商、工混雜,土地相容使用,就業區位可能與住宅區位相距不遠,因此通勤成本可能較低,這些與國外迥異的都市背景,使得本研究想解構在台灣家戶的住宅調整決策與區位選擇行為。
本研究將家戶的生命週期類型與住宅遷移、區位選擇、增建決策相連結,探討每個特殊的生命週期家戶,其住宅調整決策的差異,分析各生命週期家戶的區隔,其結果有助於了解住宅次市場區隔以及住宅下濾、換屋行為。進一步探討家戶的住宅區位選擇: 台北市女性就業,使家庭所得、通勤成本增加,其住宅區位選擇與通勤行為應與單薪家戶不同,並驗證是否受到房價與通勤成本的取捨、相關資源與夫妻決策權力、以及家庭責任義務的影響。最後,探討戶長及配偶對於區位選擇的影響,驗證戶長配偶模式是否比過去研究以戶長屬性代替家戶屬性的模式較佳,分析家戶屬性所引申的住宅需求如何影響家戶的住宅區位選擇,以及分析夫妻的資源與決策影響力的性別差異關係。女性身為戶長,其決策影響力的消長應與一般傳統家戶的成員不同,分析是否產生女性特殊的住宅區位需求,其結果可以作為住宅政策的參考。
本文回顧相關文獻,發現單從經濟學的模式不足以說明家戶的選擇行為,而社會學與性別方面的議題和假說也未深入探討家戶的住宅區位選擇,因此考量現實的背景,希望從實證主義,剖析不同生命週期家戶的住宅調整方式,以及從大幅改變住宅屬性的遷移方式中,進一步解構家戶的住宅區位選擇行為與通勤的決策,並討論家庭責任、性別差異等相關課題。實證資料係採1990年台閩地區戶口及住宅普查台北市的資料,探討家戶對於自有住宅的調整決策,將台北市各行政區中位置相鄰、性質相近者分為六區,作為住宅區位選擇的替選區位。本研究以效用理論為基礎,分析家戶的遷移決策、遷移選擇一個新的住宅區位、以及增建決策等,追求家戶住宅需求效用的最大化,以不連續選擇模型進行實證。
結果發現高所得家戶選擇遷移的機率較高,低所得、或小孩正在成長的家戶較傾向選擇增建,住宅區位選擇的結果,也可印證人口往新興發展的郊區移動,老舊的西區流動性較差,應用在都市發展的政策上,可以針對資源的流動與新興地區的住宅及公共設施建設、交通運輸建設等相關政策做出建議。
另外,藉由女性的決策權力與需求的結果,發現女性就業的特性與所得資源對於區位、通勤選擇的影響力較低,反而是照顧小孩的家庭責任是關鍵因素,女性同時在外工作與擔任母職的角色,非常需要工作地點與住宅區為方便的連結,工作與居住分離的都市形式或許不敷台灣社會的需要,方便的交通與大眾運輸工具、以及價格合理且鄰近社區的兒童扥育設施都是女性急需的公共服務。
同時考慮夫妻兩位家戶成員的戶長配偶模式比傳統的戶長模式較能解釋住宅區位選擇的決策,但是在1990年當時的已婚女性多是無酬的家屬工作者或未就業,因此較沒有顯著的經濟影響力,惟獨年輕、教育程度較高的女性展現較不同於傳統的決策行為,而且以女性為戶長的家戶的確有孑然不同的區位選擇影響力,與台北市全體家戶、以男性為戶長的家戶相比,女性的戶長影響力較大。 / This dissertation consisted of four relative essays. Due to lack of housing adjustment decisions and location choice issues in Taiwan’s housing research, this study focus on some specific background in Taipei City, and reference to the existing studies. The relative resources and couple’s decision-making power effect is an important discussion point to which I drew attention. Using the discrete choice model and the data from “1990 Census of Population and Housing in Taipei”, the empirical studies are tested.
As we known, the housing price in Taipei is the highest in Taiwan, households choose moving decision would pay higher adjustment cost. The most popular housing types in Taipei are apartments, the addition behavior without government permission is normally illegal. But under the constraint of affordability, some families would choose home improvement instead of moving to satisfy their housing needs for saving adjusting cost. In the first paper, I examined different choices of moving decision, housing location choice, and addition decision, which every household made. Households in different life cycle stages, indicating different income level, number of members, marriage status or other specific characteristics, they how to adjust their housing demand and make their housing decisions. The results will provide housing market segmentation information and explain the housing filtering behaviors.
This second paper explores the effects on housing location choice in single and double income households in Taipei, and examines the relative hypotheses, such as relative resources and couple’s decision-making power, and household responsibility constrains. Households’ residential location choice are subjected to income constrains, facing the trade-off between housing price and commuting cost. Husbands who are usually the financial resources of a family economy get more decision- making power than wives. However, it would not play more significant role on location and commuting choices for wife to taking care of children. The results would suggest the government to provide convenient public transportation mode and children care service.
The last two papers examine the impact of aggregated needs of household members on the choice of housing location in Taipei. Especially the discussion of family decision- making issues was raised. The results indicate that the choice of housing location is significantly impacted by the age, family origin, past housing location, education and occupation status, and the location of workplaces of both spouses. We also find that this decision is more significantly influenced by the attributes of the male spouse□than the female. However, among the households with a female household head, the female spouse□characteristics are more likely to be significant. Our results also offer a snapshot of today□Taiwanese culture that is dramatically different from the commonly understood male-dominance in the Chinese tradition.
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Avaliação microeconômica do comportamento de investidores frente às alterações de condições de mercado: os determinantes da não racionalidade dos investidores no mercado de fundos brasileirosFernandez Gonzalez, Ramon Francisco 25 May 2015 (has links)
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Versão Completa - Dissertação Ramon F F Gonzalez - Os determinantes da não racionalidade dos investidores no mercado de fundos brasileiros.pdf: 1256743 bytes, checksum: 8aee8712ff228f642b076f195caf2fce (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2016-05-02T13:22:46Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1
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Versão Completa - Dissertação Ramon F F Gonzalez - Os determinantes da não racionalidade dos investidores no mercado de fundos brasileiros.pdf: 1256743 bytes, checksum: 8aee8712ff228f642b076f195caf2fce (MD5)
Previous issue date: 2015-05-25 / In this paper we seek to identify the determinants of demand for mutual funds in Brazil through the logit model, which is widely used in the theory of industrial organizations. Whenever possible we perform 'links' with the main concepts of behavioral finance. Thus, we clarify the main variables that impact variations of 'market share' in the mutual funds industry. We conclude that the main indicators observed by investors at the time of decision-making, are the CDI, inflation, the real interest rate, the variation of the dollar and the stock market, on the other hand the accumulated return of the last three months is factor decisive for investors to apply or redeem an investment fund. Risk variables and expected return we thought to have a strong impact, not significant for variations of 'share'. / Neste trabalho buscamos identificar os principais determinantes da demanda por fundos de investimento no Brasil através do modelo Logit, que é bastante utilizado na teoria das organizações industriais. Sempre que possível realizamos 'links' com os principais conceitos de finanças comportamentais. Assim, conseguimos aclarar as principais variáveis que impactam as variações de 'market-share' na indústria de fundos de investimento. Concluímos que os principais indicadores observados pelos investidores no momento de tomada de decisão são o CDI, a inflação, a taxa real de juros, a variação do dólar e da bolsa de valores, por outro lado a rentabilidade acumulada dos últimos três meses é fator decisivo para que o investidor aplique ou resgate um fundo de investimento. Variáveis de risco e de retorno esperado que imaginávamos ter forte impacto, não se mostraram significativas para as variações de 'share'. / En este trabajo buscamos identificar los determinantes de la demanda de los principales fondos de inversión en Brasil através del modelo Logit, que es ampliamente utilizado en la teoría de las organizaciones industriales. Siempre que posible hemos realizado 'links' con los principales conceptos de las finanzas comportamentales. Por lo tanto, fue posible aclarar las principales variables a que las variaciones de impacto de 'cuota de mercado' en la industria de fondos de inversión. Llegamos a la conclusión de que los principales indicadores observados por los inversores en el momento de la toma de decisiones, es el CDI, la inflación, la tasa de interés real, la variación del dólar y el mercado de valores, por otro lado, la rentabilidad acumulada de los últimos tres meses es un factor decisiva para que los inversionistas invirtan o salgan de un fondo de inversión. Las variables de riesgo y rendimiento esperado que pensabamos tener un impacto fuerte, no se demonstraran significativas para las variaciones de las cuotas de mercado.
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Essays on the Economics of Sustainable Energy PoliciesDressler, Luisa 01 September 2017 (has links)
This dissertation seeks to contribute to the policy discussion on how to design efficient and sustainable energy policies. In three self-contained chapters, it applies microeconomic theory and empirical analysis to identify three market failures in European energy markets and to evaluate specific policy measures that strive to overcome these failures in order to increase market efficiency and to enhance environmental or societal sustainability. Chapter 1 and 2 study European electricity markets, which play an important role in the transition towards a carbon-neutral energy future. Overcoming barriers to efficient electricity markets is a crucial step to keep the costs of this transition as low as possible to society. Both chapters focus on obstacles to electricity market efficiency that have recently been highlighted by the European Commission. On the supply side, subsidies for renewable electricity may distort production incentives and competition in wholesale electricity markets. Chapter 1 applies a theoretical model to study the effect of different subsidies on producer strategies and competition in wholesale electricity markets. On the demand side, the European Commission seeks to overcome the reluctance of residential electricity consumers to switch electricity supplier in order to ensure effective competition in the retail electricity market. Chapter 2 empirically quantifies different reasons for switching inertia using a structural discrete choice model and performs counterfactual analysis to study the effect of different policy measures that seek to overcome switching inertia. Chapter 3 looks at the building sector, which accounts for 40% of final energy consumption in Europe and is a major emitter of carbon emissions. In the residential housing market information asymmetries hamper incentives to invest in energy efficiency improvements of rental property. This chapter empirically analyzes the effect of a European policy that mandates the use of energy performance certificates aiming at establishing an efficient market for energy efficient dwellings. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
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Podpora AfD ve spolkových zemích Brémy, Sasko-Anhaltsko a Bádensko-Württembersko / AfD's support in federal states of Bremen, Saxony-Anhalt and Baden-WürttembergVolfová, Barbora January 2018 (has links)
This thesis concerns the support for the AfD in the federal states Bremen, Saxony-Anhalt, and Baden-Württemberg. In particular, the goal is to explain the support for the AfD among the eligible voters of Bremen, Saxony-Anhalt, and Baden-Württemberg at the most recently elections held in Bremen on 10 May 2015 and in Baden-Württemberg and Saxony-Anhalt on 13 March 2016. This is a disciplined, interpretive case study, which uses the existing models of voting behaviour to explain the voting for the AfD in Bremen, Saxony-Anhalt, and Baden- Württemberg. It employs a sociological model of voting behaviour and a model of rational choice. The goal is to determine whether the support for the AfD in the three selected federal states can be explained using these models of voting behaviour, and if so, which model of voting behaviour best explains the support for the AfD. First, the thesis presents the models of voting behaviour that are used in the study for analysis of the support for the AfD. The next portion of the thesis deals with the party Alternative for Germany. The section of the thesis that follows is devoted to the actual analysis of support for the AfD, first in Baden- Württemberg and then in the federal states Saxony-Anhalt and Bremen. The answers to the research question are presented at the...
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Making sense of smell : classifications and model thinking in olfaction theoryBarwich, Ann-Sophie January 2013 (has links)
This thesis addresses key issues of scientific realism in the philosophy of biology and chemistry through investigation of an underexplored research domain: olfaction theory, or the science of smell. It also provides the first systematic overview of the development of olfactory practices and research into the molecular basis of odours across the 19th and 20th century. Historical and contemporary explanations and modelling techniques for understanding the material basis of odours are analysed with a specific focus on the entrenchment of technological process, research tradition and the definitions of materiality for understanding scientific advancement. The thesis seeks to make sense of the explanatory and problem solving strategies, different ways of reasoning and the construction of facts by drawing attention to the role and application of scientific representations in olfactory practices. Scientific representations such as models, classifications, maps, diagrams, lists etc. serve a variety of purposes that range from the stipulation of relevant properties and correlations of the research materials and the systematic formation of research questions, to the design of experiments that explore or test particular hypotheses. By examining a variety of modelling strategies in olfactory research, I elaborate on how I understand the relation between representations and the world and why this relation requires a pluralist perspective on scientific models, methods and practices. Through this work I will show how a plurality of representations does not pose a problem for realism about scientific entities and their theoretical contexts but, on the contrary, that this plurality serves as the most reliable grounding for a realistic interpretation of scientific representations of the world and the entities it contains. The thesis concludes that scientific judgement has to be understood through its disciplinary trajectory, and that scientific pluralism is a direct consequence of the historicity of scientific development.
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