The National Credit Act (NCA) was promulgated and implemented on 1 June 2007. The purpose of this research study was to outline the residential mort-gage market in South Africa in the context of the NCA and to determine how residential mortgage lending under the new NCA was regulated. The purpose of the NCA was to remove the many unfair practices, inappropriate disclosure and anti-competitive practices from the market and to achieve honesty in the credit market. Low-income groups were held back because they could not gain access to formal finance to build or improve houses or supplement housing subsidies to get bigger houses. This study applied the quantitative research design using time series secondary data. Registered data on monthly residential mortgages was obtained from Lightstone Property for the period January 2001 to August 2011. Secondary data was collected from the BA900 of the SARB to see how many loans were approved and rejected between 2008 and 2014. The statistical analysis techniques used in this study were t-tests, descriptive statistics, trend analysis and correlation analysis. It was found that the NCA had a positive effect on the residential mortgages in SA. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

Esta tese trata de crédito, não da análise dos demonstrativos financeiros, e sim a partir do momento em que o resultado de uma análise criteriosa e competente é colocada à disposição do comitê para decidir pela concessão ou não do crédito. A decisão de crédito é nosso enfoque principal. A tese está dividida em quatro partes. Na primeira parte fazemos uma revisão bibliográfica sobre crédito, dos fundamentos históricos à aplicação de modelos sofisticados de administração de carteiras (o Creditmetrics), passando pelo Estado da Arte das técnicas de credit scoring. A segunda parte trata dos fundamentos da teoria da análise da decisão, onde discutimos e analisamos o comportamento político e racional nas organizações, e os principais problemas decorrentes de atitudes indesejáveis como escalation, groupthink e bandwagon. A terceira parte discorre, inicialmente, sobre a pesquisa e sua metodologia, apresentando as hipóteses a serem testadas. Na seqüência, com base em dezoito entrevistas com diretores das principais entidades bancárias do país, descrevemos o processo geral para a concessão de crédito para grandes corporações e analisamos sete casos de concessões de crédito malsucedidas. Finalmente, com uma amostra de 54 bancos, realizamos a análise estatística dos resultados buscando comprovar nossas hipóteses de pesquisa. Na quarta e última parte apresentamos o sumário e conclusões da tese. Podemos destacar a relevância dos aspectos comportamentais, como fundamento da tomada de decisão e crédito: os testes realizados comprovam a influência do comportamento racional como redutor do índice de inadimplência; enquanto os sintomas de comportamento político, escalation e groupthink contribuem para o aumento do índice de inadimplência. / This thesis is concerned with credit decision and not with financial statements analysis. More specifically, it is focused on the decision making process of the credit committee once the results of a competent anlysis is avalaible. The thesis is divided in four parts. In the first we present a review about credit, from its historical developments up to the applications of sophisticated portfolio management models and other modern techniques. The second part deals with the fundamentals of decision theory. We discuss ans analyze political and rational decision behaviors within organizations, and phenomenon such as escalation, groupthink and bandwagon. The third part presents, initially, the research problem, its methodology and the hypothesis to be tested. Subsequently, based on eighteen interviews with bank executives in Brazil, we describe the decision processes employed in the concession of credits to large corporations. We also analyze seven cases of unsuccessful credit decisions. Finally we present the statistical analysis of a survey by questionnaires from 54 Brazilian banks. In the fourth and last part we present the conclusions of this thesis. The key results in the importance of behavioral aspects in the credit decision processes: the statistical tests confirm that the rational behavior mitigates the bankruptcy index; while the political behavior, escalation and groupthink contribute to an increment of the banruptcy index.

Magister Legum - LLM

Recently, the financial world witnessed a series of major defaults by several institutions and investment banks. Therefore, it is not at all surprising that credit risk analysis have turned out to be one of the most important aspect among the finance community. As credit derivatives are long term instruments, it is affected by the changes in the market conditions. Thus, it is a appropriate to take into consideration the effects of the market economy. This thesis addresses some of the important issues in credit risk analysis in a regime switching market. The main contribution in this thesis are the followings: (1) We determine the price of default able bonds in a regime switching market for structural models with European type payoff. We use the method of quadratic hedging and minimal martingale measure to determine the defaultble bond prices. We also obtain hedging strategies and the corresponding residual risks in these models. The defaultable bond prices are obtained as solution to a system of PDEs (partial differential equations) with appropriate terminal and boundary conditions. We show the existence and uniqueness of the system of PDEs on an appropriate domain. (2) We carry out a similar analysis in a regime switching market for the reduced form models. We extend some of the existing models in the literature for correlated default timings. We price single-name and multi-name credit derivatives using our regime switching models. The prices are obtained as solution to a system of ODEs(ordinary differential equations) with appropriate terminal conditions. (3) The price of the credit derivatives in our regime switching models are obtained as solutions to a system of ODEs/PDEs subject to appropriate terminal and boundary conditions. We solve these ODEs/PDEs numerically and compare the relative behavior of the credit derivative prices with and without regime switching. We observe higher spread in our regime switching models. This resolves the low spread discrepancy that were prevalent in the classical structural models. We show further applications of our model by capturing important phenomena that arises frequently in the financial market. For instance, we model the business cycle, tight liquidity situations and the effects of firm restructuring. We indicate how our models may be extended to price various other credit derivatives.

Dpartment of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness / MSc.AEC

The potential of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in promoting economic growth in both developed and developing countries is widely accepted and documented by both scholars and policy makers. Particularly lacking are studies on the evidence in support of the importance of credit rationing to the sustainability of SMEs in an emerging economy like South Africa’s. This specific problem, especially in the developing countries, has been identified as the major bottleneck in realising socio-economic potentials of SMEs in those countries. However, one of the major ways of addressing the challenge of inadequate funding that exists within the SME sector is the use of bank credit. This study was therefore undertaken to explore the role of commercial banks in the provision of credit to the SMEs in South Africa. This study focuses on the issue of the relationship between the banking industry and SMEs. In particular, the problem of credit rationing of, and discrimination against SMEs by commercial banks was investigated. Because credit rationing and finance gaps can stem from imperfections on either supply-side (banks), or demand-side (SMEs), or both, the intention of the study was to examine both of these variables in order to uncover the implications of their relationships. The empirical analysis is based on survey data collected by means of a structured questionnaire which was distributed amongst banks and SME borrowers in the Gauteng Province of South Africa. Contrary to the general view that commercial banks are disinclined to provide credit to SMEs, the study found that South African banks are keen to serve the SMEs and are therefore making efforts to penetrate this potentially profitable market segment. However, several obstacles are potentially restricting the involvement of banks with SMEs in South Africa. The findings revealed that regulations such as the Financial Intelligence Centre Act (FICA) and the National Credit Act (NCA) came out strongly as major hindrances of bank financing to SMEs. Furthermore, it was shown that compliance with the NCA was ranked higher than credit history and profitability as a factor hindering the approval of SME loans. - iii - However, by using the structural equation modelling (SEM), the results also show that there is a positive and significant influence of lending technology and collateral on the supply of credit to SMEs. Variables such as creditworthiness, collateral and e-banking were found to have a positive and significant impact on the provision of credit to SMEs by commercial banks. For both the supply- and demand-side analysis, technology came out as the most important predictor of SME access to finance. This means that banks should strive to align their lending techniques with the dynamic technological developments so as to reach as many SMEs as possible even in the geographically dispersed regions. It is anticipated that improving SME access to bank credit could be the key to the growth and sustainability of SMEs, the alleviation of poverty and unemployment; and consequently leading to the growth of the South African economy. / Business Management / D. Com. (Business Management)

Kredito reitingai viena iš populiariausių, plačiai naudojamų priemonių vertinant riziką, susijusią su emitento galimybėmis ateityje vykdyti savo finansinius įsipareigojimus. Pastarųjų metų finansų krizė finansų rinkų dalyvius privertė suabejoti kredito reitingų patikimumu ir kredito reitingų agentūrų veikla. Kredito reitingų populiarumas, jų reikšmė ir abejonės dėl jų patikimumo skatina išanalizuoti kredito reitingų naudojamas metodologijas, kad suprasti, kaip naudoti jų teikiamą informaciją. Tyrimo problema – ar nepriklausomų kredito reitingų agentūrų suteikti kredito reitingai yra objektyvūs ir patikimi, ir ar investuotojai gali remtis jais priimdami finansinius sprendimus. Tyrimo tikslas – išnagrinėjus kredito reitingų agentūrų naudojamas metodologijas, palyginti Lietuvos komercinių bankų veiklos rezultatų kaitą su jiems suteiktų kredito reitingų pokyčiais bei įvertinti suteikiamų kredito reitingų patikimumą. Šiam tikslui pasiekti, nustatyti tokie uždaviniai: 1. pateikti kredito reitingų sampratą, aprašyti jų suteikimo procesą; 2. išanalizuoti metodologijas, naudojamas suteikiant kredito reitingus; 3. išanalizuoti priežastis, lėmusias pasitikėjimo kredito reitingų agentūromis mažėjimą ir šių institucijų priežiūros priemones; 4. atlikti ekspertinį analizuojamų bankų ir jų aplinkos rodiklių kompleksinį vertinimą; 5. įvertinti kredito reitingų patikimumą, lyginant jų kitimą su kelių Lietuvos komercinių bankų finansinių rodiklių kaita. Baigiamajame magistro darbe iškelta... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Credit ratings are one of the most popular and widely used measure the creditworthiness of issuers. The financial crisis of late years reduced trust of credit ratings and credit rating agencies. The popularity of credit ratings, their importance and doubts of their trustworthiness motivate to analyze methodologies that are used by credit rating agencies and interpret the information credit ratings gives in a properly way. The problem of the research – do sovereign credit ratings are objective and trustworthiness and investors can use them then making financial decisions. The purpose of the research – to analyze methodologies that are used by credit rating agencies, compare Lithuanian commercial banks‘ financial indices and credit ratings dynamics and evaluate the trustworthiness of credit ratings. Tasks of this work: 1. to give the conception of credit ratings and to decribe the process of estimating them; 2. to analyze the methodologies that are used by credit rating agencies; 3. to analyze the reasons of reduced trustworthiness of credit rating agencies and tools that could be used to supervise them; 4. to perform experts‘ evaluation of analyzed banks and their environment by using the multiciterial analysis; 5. evaluate the trustworthiness of credit ratings by comparing their dynamics with dynamics of financial indices of some Lithuanian commercial banks. The hypothesis of Master‘s Work – financial indices ant their dynamics do not definetely gives significant influence... [to full text]

Praticamente todas as grandes instituições brasileiras que trabalham com concessão de crédito utilizam-se de modelos para avaliar o risco de inadimplência dos potenciais contratantes de produtos de crédito. Qualquer avanço nas técnicas, que resulte no aumento da precisão de um modelo de previsão, acarreta ganhos financeiros para a instituição. Neste trabalho são apresentados, em um primeiro momento, conceitos de crédito e risco. Posteriormente, a partir de uma amostra de dados, fornecida por uma grande instituição financeira brasileira, estão desenvolvidos três modelos, aplicando-se três técnicas para a classificação de clientes: Regressão Logística, Redes Neurais e Algoritmos Genéticos. Em uma etapa final, são avaliadas e comparadas a qualidade e performance dos modelos desenvolvidos, onde é apontado qual o modelo que melhor se ajusta aos dados. Os resultados obtidos pelos modelos de regressão logística e rede neural são satisfatórios e bastante próximos, sendo o primeiro ligeiramente superior. O modelo embasado por algoritmos genéticos apresenta também bons resultados embora num patamar inferior aos dois já citados. Este trabalho ilustra os procedimentos a serem adotados por uma empresa para identificar o melhor modelo de concessão de crédito que tenha boa aderência aos seus dados. A adoção do melhor modelo detectado permite o direcionamento da estratégia da instituição, podendo aumentar a eficiência do seu negócio. / Most of the large Brazilian institutions which work with credit concession use credit models to evaluate the risk of consumer loans. Any improvement in techniques that results in the precision increase of a prediction model, will provide financial gains to the institution. The first phase of this study introduces concepts of credit and risk. Subsequently, with a sample set of applicants from a large Brazilian financial institution, three credit scoring models are built applying three different techniques: Logistic Regression, Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms. Finally, the quality and the performance of these models are evaluated and compared, and the best one is identified. The results obtained by the logistic regression model and neural network model are good and very similar, but the first one is slightly better. The results obtained with the genetic algorithm model are also good, but a little bit inferior. This study shows proceedings to be adopted by a financial institution in order to identify the best credit model to evaluate the risk of consumer loans. The use of the proper model will help the definition of an adequate business strategy and increase profits.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-05T19:13:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 26 / Nenhuma / As facilidades na concessão de crédito a pessoas físicas têm aumentado no decorrer dos últimos três anos. Variáveis como redução das taxas de juros, aumento de prazos de pagamentos e empréstimos consignados à folha de pagamento possibilitaram à população em geral acesso a aquisição de bens móveis, imóveis entre outros. Neste contexto, a procura por mecanismos mais robustos de análise de risco de crédito, no sentido de evitar ou reduzir os níveis de inadimplência do setor se tornaram necessários. Este estudo objetiva construir um modelo econométrico para estimar a probabilidade do risco de inadimplência em uma Instituição Privada de Ensino Superior. Utilizando a técnica estatística de regressão logística, o modelo de risco de crédito foi construído com base em uma amostra de alunos (pessoas físicas) matriculados na Universidade Católica de Pelotas, situada em Pelotas/RS. As variáveis explicativas do modelo foram obtidas a partir da aplicação de um questionário socioeconômico, que gerou um rol de 59 variáveis d / The facilitation in the credit concession to individuals has increased over the last three years. Variables such as the reduction in the interest taxes, increase in maturity, payroll-attached loans, have provided the population in general, with access to consumption property, buildings among others. In this scenario, the search for stronger tools of credit risk analysis, trying to avoid or at least reduce the default rates in the field, has become necessary. This study aims at elaborating an econometric model to predict the probability of default risk in a Private University. By using the statistical technique of logistical regression, the credit risk model has been built based on a sample of students (individuals) enrolled at “Universidade Católica de Pelotas”, located in Pelotas/RS. The explaining variables of the model have been obtained from a socio-economical questionnaire, which has generated 59 variables from which, only 3 were really relevant: existence of previously negotiated debts, possession of a

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:20:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Daniela Cristina Ismael Floriano.pdf: 882061 bytes, checksum: 70fac74b237be3a391bfffcc95f50cc6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-10-26 / The rule of law that regulates the offsetting credits process constitutionally qualified, which results from the non-cumulative tax principle related to the tax on goods and services (ICMS), is certainly one of the topics most analyzed by Brazilian doctrine. However, the guidance adopted by most researchers and doctrinaires in virtually all the work presented so far was based on identifying the legal nature of the aforementioned offsetting process and on its systematic operation. This paper is based on the approach of another topic on the subject: the presentation of a precise (and necessary) distinction between the concepts of "right to credit" (credit book), and the phenomenology of the offsetting credits process due to the application of procedural rules that govern the non-cumulative system. This paper evidences that there is no necessary connection between those concepts, even though they are closely related. This essay demonstrates that it is possible to identify the credit book without being necessary to assume the supposed standard that guides the offsetting of these credits. In this sense, we conclude that, regardless of whether this is a necessary element for the maintenance of the ICMS in the format in which this tax is governed by the Constitution nowadays (non-cumulative, as a rule), one cannot include the non-cumulative principle in the criteria that compose the matrix rule for levying the ICMS tax. The reason for that is because the legal standard that governs the offsetting engine seeks for fiscal neutrality, and it contains an independent procedural rule itself separated from the charge of the ICMS tax. The distinction between the concepts of credit book and procedural rule is important as we establish the logical-semantic elements that compose the matrix rule of the legal standard for offsetting credits that arise from the non-cumulative system. Identified such criteria, we believe that it will favor the work of the agents that deal with this legal standard / A norma jurídica que disciplina o processo de compensação constitucionalmente qualificado e decorrente da aplicação do princípio da nãocumulatividade relacionado ao imposto sobre a circulação de mercadorias e serviços (ICMS) é, por certo, um dos temas sobre os quais mais se dedicou a doutrina tributária pátria. Convém registrar, contudo, que a temática que orientou praticamente todos os trabalhos até o momento apresentados pautou-se em identificar a natureza jurídica bem como a sistemática de operacionalização do citado processo compensatório. O presente trabalho, por sua vez, encontra-se fundado em uma abordagem que se alça à pretensão de analisar outra temática sobre o assunto: a apresentação de uma divisão precisa (e necessária) entre os conceitos de direito ao crédito (crédito escritural) e a fenomenologia do processo de compensação decorrente da incidência da norma procedimental que disciplina a não-cumulatividade. Buscaremos assim demonstrar o fato de que, embora intimamente relacionados, inexiste uma vinculação necessária entre estes conceitos, sendo possível identificarmos o crédito escritural sem que se faça necessário cogitar da incidência pressuposta da norma que orienta a compensação destes créditos. Neste sentido, e para tanto, concluiremos que, inobstante tratar-se de um elemento necessário para a manutenção do ICMS no formato em que hoje este tributo encontra-se disciplinado no Texto Constitucional (sob a forma, via de regra, nãocumulativa), não se pode apontar a não-cumulatividade como um dos critérios que compõe a regra-matriz de incidência deste tributo. Isto porque, a norma jurídica que disciplina este mecanismo de busca pela neutralidade fiscal, encerra uma norma procedimental independente da incidência do imposto por ora tratado. Desta feita, a separação entre os conceitos de crédito escritural e norma de procedimento se faz importante na medida em que apresentaremos a formulação lógicosemântica dos elementos que compõe a regra matriz de incidência da norma jurídica que disciplina o processo de compensação decorrente da não-cumulatividade. Identificados tais critérios, acreditamos que estaremos por facilitar o trabalho do aplicador desta norma jurídica