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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
111

Análise, design e inovação de modelos de negócios para servitização / Analysis, design and innovation of business models for servitization.

Renato Machado Costa 13 June 2017 (has links)
Empresas de manufatura tradicionalmente concentram os seus esforços em concepção, desenvolvimento, fabricação e comercialização de produtos físicos. No entanto, alguns fabricantes têm alterado suas estratégias de negócio, complementando a venda de produtos com o fornecimento de serviços, incorporando conhecimentos e atividades associados ao seu uso, e gerando maior percepção de valor por parte dos seus clientes. Com isso, a competição estratégica por meio de serviços tem se tornado uma marca distintiva das empresas de manufatura inovadoras, proporcionando à empresa um meio robusto para proteger o seu mercado dos concorrentes. Assim, observa-se um interesse crescente em pesquisas sobre o papel dos serviços para sustentar a competitividade da indústria. Abordagens orientadas a serviço, que incorporam esta mudança de foco do negócio, da oferta de produtos isolados para soluções integradas, têm sido tratadas na comunidade acadêmica como servitização, e tipicamente acarretam inovações no modelo de negócios (MN) da empresa. O objetivo deste trabalho é investigar como as empresas podem promover inovações em seus MNs para suportar suas estratégias de servitização, e propor um conjunto de artefatos para apoiá-las na implantação destas estratégias, a partir do seguinte problema de pesquisa: \"Como inovar o MN de uma empresa que adota a estratégia de servitização?\", que se desdobra nas seguintes questões: (i) quais são os principais fatores motivadores para uma empresa adotar a estratégia de servitização?; (ii) como representar o MN de uma empresa incorporando a lógica dominante de serviço, mais adequada para servitização?; (iii) como inovar o MN de uma empresa para implantar sua estratégia de servitização?; e (iv) como aplicar os artefatos propostos para apoiar a implantação da estratégia de servitização em uma empresa? Realiza-se uma pesquisa de natureza exploratória e prescritiva, baseada no método design scienceresearche amparada por uma revisão sistemática da literatura sobre os temas correlatos, visando propor artefatos em resposta às questões colocadas. A demonstração de um dos artefatos propostos é feita com suporte de um estudo de caso em uma empresa multinacional, fabricante de equipamentos médicos, seguida por uma avaliação empírica desta demonstração, suportada pelo método thinkingaloud. A partir das quatro questões de pesquisa, são obtidos os seguintes resultados: (i) identificação, análise e categorização dos principais fatores motivadores para adoção da servitização; (ii) proposição de uma arquitetura de MN incorporando a lógica dominante de serviço, para facilitar o estudo da servitização; (iii) proposição de um processo de inovação do MN da empresa, para implantar a servitização. e (iv) demonstração e avaliação da arquitetura proposta de MN para servitização. A pesquisa oferece contribuições à literatura de MN e servitização, e aos gestores de empresas, propondo os artefatos canvas do modelo de negócios para servitização (CMNS) e o processo IPIDI para inovação do MN para servitização, além de contribuições metodológicas relativas a design scienceresearch e thinking aloud. / Manufacturing companies traditionally are focused on designing, developing, manufacturing and marketing physical products. However, some manufacturers are changing their business strategies, complementing the sale of products by providing services, adding knowledge and activities associated with their use, and creating a higher perception of value by their customers.Strategic competition through service delivery has become a hallmark of the innovative manufacturing companies, providing the companies with a robust means to protect their market from competitors. Thus, there is a growing interest in researching the role of services in sustaining the competitiveness of manufacturing industry.Service-oriented approaches, which incorporate this shift in business\' focus from offering isolated products, to proposing integrated solutions, have been addressed in the literature as servitization, and typically entail innovations in the company\'s business model (BM). The goal of this research is investigating how companies can promote transformations in their BMs to support their servitization strategies, and proposing a set of artifacts to support them in the implementation of these strategies, since the following research problem: \"How to innovate the BM of a company which adopts the servitization strategy? \", which unfolds in the following questions: (i) what are the main motivating factors for a company to adopt the servitization strategy?; (ii) how to represent the BM of a company incorporating the service-dominant logic, more suitable for servitization?; (iii) how to innovate a company\'s BM to implement its servitization strategy ?; and (iv) how to apply the proposed artifacts to support the implementation of the servitization strategy in a company? An exploratory and prescriptive research is carried out, based on the design science research methodology, and supported by a systematic literature review on the related subjects, aiming at proposing artifacts in response to the questions posed. The demonstration of the proposed artifacts is done by means of a case study in a multinational company, which manufactures medical devices, followed by an assessment of this demonstration, supported by the thinking aloud method. From the four research questions, the following results are obtained: (i) identification, analysis and categorization of the main motivating factors for servitization adoption; (ii) proposing a BM architecture according to the service-dominant logic, to help the servitization study; (iii) proposing an innovation process for the company\'s BM, to implement the servitization; and (iv) demonstration and assessment of the proposed BM architecture for servitization. The research offers contributions to the literature of BM and servitization, and to practitioners, proposing the artifacts business model canvas for servitization (BMCS) and the IPIDI process for innovation of BM for servitization, besides some methodological contributions related to design science research and thinking aloud.
112

Avaliação de um modelo colaborativo suportado por tecnologias da web 2.0 para apoiar a gestão de lições aprendidas em projetos de segurança patrimonial usando uma abordagem de design science / Evaluation of a collaborative model supported by web 2.0 technologies to aid the management of lessons learned in the management of safety projects using a design science approach

Souza, Maurício Tessi de 27 April 2016 (has links)
Submitted by Nadir Basilio (nadirsb@uninove.br) on 2016-06-08T18:22:11Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Maurício Tessi de Souza.pdf: 1434399 bytes, checksum: 33e4b3f5814a662b1128ffd020800265 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-08T18:22:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Maurício Tessi de Souza.pdf: 1434399 bytes, checksum: 33e4b3f5814a662b1128ffd020800265 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-04-27 / Social software, eg Wikis, Blogs and Microblogs, have gained attention in recent years in the daily life of organizations, these can be incorporated into the project management and collaborative tools. Regarding organizations, these tools can facilitate the sharing of lessons learned and knowledge among employees of an organization and the external public. These facilities can be seen through the real-time communication, access to information by multiple people at the same time and control of information exercised by management or organization. Moreover, the lessons learned are one of the central points of this research, which contributed directly to the organization, management and the security project teams. This study aims to evaluate to what extent the use of an artifact produced by a lessons learned management model can contribute to the management of security projects. As research question of this study narrowed to the following, "To what extent the lessons learned Target 2.0 management model can contribute to the management of security projects?" To this end, this study uses the Design Science Research as a research paradigm and the Technical Action Research as a method, which will reduce the gap between research and practice. This work is characterized as qualitative, using interviews and direct observations techniques. We used a Wiki as a central tool of this artifact, noting the facilities of inputs, consultations and control of the lessons learned from the management and design teams. The device was applied to the organization through a Web 2.0 tool, ie a Wiki, which served as support and support to project teams in the collection of lessons learned. The study found that even the use of the artifact has contributed significantly to the practice of security projects, as there was an improvement in communication between staff and management. Another point seen in the study was the ease of use of the tool users in the process. One of the limitations is the availability of Internet, which is still a problem, because without Internet, the virtual tools or social media are compromised, being a hindrance to the team's work in the field. As a contribution to the theory the artifact created can improve Lessons Learned storage and communication between property security project teams and their managers in the researched organization. / Os softwares sociais, e.g. Wikis, Blogues e Microblogues, têm ganho atenção nos últimos anos no cotidiano das organizações, podendo estes serem incorporados à gestão de projetos como ferramentas colaborativas. No que tange às organizações, essas ferramentas podem facilitar o compartilhamento das lições aprendidas e o conhecimento entre colaboradores de uma organização e o público externo. Estas facilidades podem ser vistas através da comunicação em tempo real, do acesso às informações por várias pessoas ao mesmo tempo e do controle das informações exercido pela gestão ou pela organização. Além disso, as lições aprendidas são um dos pontos centrais desta pesquisa, a qual contribuiu diretamente na organização, na gestão e nas equipes de projetos de segurança. Este estudo tem como objetivo avaliar em que medida o uso de um artefato produzido por meio de um modelo de gestão de lições aprendidas pode contribuir para o gerenciamento de projetos de segurança. Como questão de pesquisa deste estudo delimitou-se a seguinte, "Em que medida o modelo de gestão de lições aprendidas Target 2.0 pode contribuir com a gestão de projetos de segurança?" Para tal, este estudo utiliza o Design Science Research como paradigma de pesquisa e o Technical Action Research como método, que permitem reduzir a lacuna existente entre a pesquisa e a prática. Este trabalho se caracteriza como qualitativo, utilizando as técnicas de entrevista e observação direta. Utilizou-se uma Wiki como ferramenta central deste artefato, observando as facilidades dos inputs, as consultas e controle das lições aprendidas entre a gestão e as equipes de projeto. O artefato foi aplicado na organização por meio de uma ferramenta da Web 2.0, ou seja, uma Wiki, a qual serviu como suporte e apoio às equipes de projeto na coleta das lições aprendidas. O estudo apontou ainda que o uso do artefato contribuiu significativamente para a prática de projetos de segurança, pois houve uma melhora na comunicação entre a equipe e com a gestão. Outro ponto percebido no estudo foi à facilidade de uso da ferramenta pelos usuários nos processos apresentados pelo modelo Target 2.0. Como limitações percebeu-se que a Internet ainda é um problema, pois sem ela as ferramentas virtuais ou as mídias sociais são comprometidas, sendo um empecilho para o trabalho da equipe em campo. Como contribuição para a teoria o artefato criado pode melhorar o armazenamento de Lições Aprendidas e a comunicação entre as equipes de projeto de segurança patrimonial e seus gestores na organização pesquisada.
113

Användaracceptans av professionella möten i en Virtual Realityapplikation

Andersson, Alex January 2020 (has links)
This study examines inexperienced users’ perceptions of therelationships between aspects of user acceptance in professionalmeetings, based on usability tests performed in a VR application.The study is supported by specific parts of a Design scienceresearch methodology. As a starting point in the study of useracceptance, a specifically developed version of the TechnologyAcceptance Model (TAM) is used. This TAM-tool focuses on useracceptance in relation to the two basic aspects, perceivedusefulness and perceived ease of use and these, in which relationsare also explored relative to perceived enjoyment, perceivedpresence and perceived cybersickness. In the study, three testrounds were performed with a total of six participants with minorexperience of VR. The participants conducted usability tests ofprofessional meetings in pairs, in a pre-alpha version of meetingcontexts in Freeland VR based on explicit scenarios. The testsessions were videotaped, and selected clips were used to triggerthe participants’ reflections in the interviews conducted inimmediate connection with the test sessions. The main empiricaldata is thus audio recordings of the interviews. A qualitativeanalysis was then made of the respondents’ reflections on thedifferent aspects of user acceptance that were analyzed in relationto each other to understand how they affect each other in differentways. The results showed that the participants perceived that useracceptance of the professional meetings in Freeland VR was clearlyrelated to the fact that they saw the potential for usefulness inprofessional meeting settings. The lack of ease of use in some of thescenarios and cybersickness were also perceived as somewhatnegatively related to user acceptance, although not explicitly sincethe participants themselves perceived them as transitional anddisappearing with more habit. The result clearly suggested that thepositive aspects in relation to user acceptance were both theevidently perceived presence and enjoyment. The overallconclusion is that the relationships between aspects that are mostclearly perceived as important for user acceptance were therelationships between the overall aspect, perceived usability andthe two underlying aspects perceived enjoyment and perceivedpresence. / I denna studie undersöks ovana användares uppfattningar avrelationer mellan aspekter av användaracceptans i ettprofessionellt möte, utifrån användbarhetstester i en VRapplikation med efterföljande intervjuer, med stöd av en del av endesignvetenskaplig metod. Som utgångspunkt i undersökningenav användaracceptans används en för studien särskilt utveckladvariant av Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). I denna TAM fokuseras användaracceptans i relation till de två grundläggandeaspekterna, uppfattad användbarhet och uppfattadanvändarvänlighet och dessa sätts även i relation till uppfattatnöje, uppfattad närvaro och uppfattad cybersickness. Tretestomgångar har utförts med totalt sex antal deltagare medobetydlig tidigare erfarenhet av VR. Metoden gick ut på attdeltagarna i par fick utföra användbarhetstester av en pre-alphaversion av professionella möten i studiens applikation, FreelandVR, utifrån tydliga scenarier. Dessa videodokumenterades ochutvalda videoklipp användes för att trigga testpersonernasreflektioner i intervjuerna och genomfördes i direkt anslutning tilltestsessionerna. Den huvudsakliga empiriska datan är såledesljudinspelningar av användarintervjuer. En kvalitativ analysgjordes därefter av respondenternas reflektioner om de olikaaspekterna av användaracceptans som analyserades i relation tillvarandra för att ge insikt i hur de påverkar varandra på olika sätt.Resultatet visade att testpersonerna uppfattade attanvändaracceptansen av mötena i Freeland VR var tydligt relaterattill att de såg användbarhetspotential för professionella möten.Även om användarvänligheten inte upplevdes som hög i allascenarier och cybersickness uppfattades vara något negativtrelaterat till användaracceptans, var det inte så påtagligt eftersomtestpersonerna själva uppfattade det som övergående med mervana. Det framgick av resultatet att mer tydliga positiva aspekter irelation till användaracceptans var uppfattad närvaro ochuppfattat nöje. Således är den övergripande slutsatsen att derelationer mellan aspekter som analytiskt framkom tydligast somviktiga för användaracceptansen var relationerna mellan denövergripande aspekten uppfattad användbarhet och de tvåunderliggande aspekterna uppfattat nöje och uppfattad närvaro
114

Design av chatbots för SMF : Ett kundserviceperspektiv / Design of chatbots for SMEs : A customer service perspective

Vescovi, Joakim, Mohammed, Farah, Bayard, Daniel January 2021 (has links)
Chatbots är mjukvarubaserade system som syftar till att simulera konversation mellan olika aktörer med hjälp av text och/eller tal. Vanliga användningsområden för en chatbot är exempelvis kundservice, marknadsföring och underhållningssyften. Chatbots har växt fram som ett alltmer väletablerat fenomen på marknaden, och fenomenet fortsätter att växa. En anledning till dess popularitet är att chatbots kan leda till kortare svarstid, förbättrad kundservice, förbättrad kundtillfredsställelse samt ökat engagemang hos kunder. De många fördelar som chatbots möjliggör har lett till att särskilt små och medelstora företag (SMF) vill utveckla och implementera chatbots för kundservice i sina verksamheter. Många SMF saknar emellertid de färdigheter och resurser som krävs för att fullt ut ta till vara på digitaliseringens möjligheter och den kompetens som krävs för att utveckla chatbots anpassade till ett SMF:s specifika behov. Mot denna bakgrund formuleras det problem vi avser att utforska: Det finns en brist på designkunskap som stödjer utveckling av kundservice-chatbots för SMF. Baserat på problemet har vi valt att studera följande forskningsfråga: Hur bör kundservice-chatbots för SMF designas? För att besvara forskningsfrågan har vi tagit inspiration från forskningsmetoden Action Design Research. Med stöd av metoden har ny kunskap och nya lärdomar identifierats genom utveckling och utvärdering av en chatbot i samverkan med studiens samarbetsföretag. Studiens resultat består av en IT-artefakt (chatbot) och tre designprinciper som syftar till att förenkla och möjliggöra utveckling av andra instanser av samma systemklass. De tre designprinciperna studien resulterat i är; Design för personlighet, Design för initial kapacitetsbeskrivning och Design för enkel integration. Vår slutsats är att designprinciperna ger nytta för sitt syfte och bidrar med designkunskap som kan inspirera och vägleda i både fortsatt forskning och praktik. / Chatbots are software-based systems aiming to simulate conversation between different actors using text and/or speech. Common uses for chatbots are e.g., customer service, marketing, and entertainment purposes. Chatbots have emerged as an increasingly well-established phenomenon that continues to grow. A reason for its popularity is that chatbots can lead to shorter response times, improved customer service, improved customer satisfaction and increased customer engagement. The many benefits chatbots enable have led to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) wanting to develop and implement customer service chatbots in their organization. However, many SMEs lack the skills and resources needed to take full advantage of the potential of digitalization and the skills needed to develop a chatbot tailored for the specific needs of a SME. Against this background, the problem we intend to address is formulated as follows: There is a lack of design knowledge that supports the development of customer service chatbots for SMEs. Based on this problem, we have decided to investigate the following research question: How should customer service chatbots for SMEs be designed? To answer the research question, we have used the research method Action Design Research. With support of this method, new knowledge and lessons have emerged during evaluation in collaboration with a SME. The results of the study consist of an IT artifact (chatbot) and three design principles that aspire to simplify and enable the development of other instances of the same system class. The three design principles that the study resulted in are; Design for personality, Design for initial capacity description and Design for simple integration. Our conclusions are that the design principles provide benefits for their purpose and contribute with design knowledge that can inspire and guide in both further research and practice. Note that this bachelor’s thesis is written in swedish.
115

Demand Forecasting of Outbound Logistics Using Neural Networks

Otuodung, Enobong Paul, Gorhan, Gulten January 2023 (has links)
Long short-term volume forecasting is essential for companies regarding their logistics service operations. It is crucial for logistic companies to predict the volumes of goods that will be delivered to various centers at any given day, as this will assist in managing the efficiency of their business operations. This research aims to create a forecasting model for outbound logistics volumes by utilizing design science research methodology in building 3 machine-learning models and evaluating the performance of the models . The dataset is provided by Tetra Pak AB, the World's leading food processing and packaging solutions company,. Research methods were mainly quantitative, based on statistical data and numerical calculations. Three algorithms were implemented: which are encoder–decoder networks based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM), and Convolutional Neural Network Long ShortTerm Memory (CNN-LSTM). Comparisons are made with the average Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for six distribution centers (DC) of Tetra Pak. Results obtained from encoder–decoder networks based on LSTM are compared to results obtained by encoder–decoder networks based on ConvLSTM and CNN-LSTM. The three algorithms performed very well, considering the loss of the Train and Test with our multivariate time series dataset. However, based on the average score of the RMSE, there are slight differences between algorithms for all DCs.
116

Synthesis and evaluation of a charge sensitive amplifier for neutron counters / Stefanie Strachan

Strachan, Stefanie January 2013 (has links)
Cosmic-ray fluctuations are monitored by neutron monitors using several different kinds of proportional counter tubes. An important component of these monitors is the electronic subsystem that registers and counts output pulses from these counter tubes. Part of the electronic subsystem is a specific preamplifier. The pulse-height distribution curve of the existing preamplifier used in the neutron monitor system at the Centre for Space Research at the North-West University was found to be incorrect, and therefore the pulse-height information cannot be used for further research on the counter tube characteristics. A correct pulse-height distribution implies that the envelope of the pulse, as generated by an amplifier, has a very specific shape as a result of the physics that governs the generation of pulses in the neutron counter tube. It was therefore proposed that a new charge-sensitive preamplifier be synthesized to provide an output that provides the correct pulse-height distribution graph for a neutron monitor system. The Centre for Space Research at the North-West University is in the process of designing and building a new mini neutron monitor system. The new charge-sensitive preamplifier will be implemented into this updated system. Ultimately, the electronic subsystem must be able to provide a pulse-height distribution graph at the push of a button, thus making the preamplifier a key component in the new design. In this dissertation the theory of charge-sensitive amplifiers is researched following a design science research methodology. The results showed that a charge-sensitive amplifier can be synthesized to address both the real-world requirements and the theoretical requirements of this research. / MIng (Electrical and Electronic Engineering), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014
117

Synthesis and evaluation of a charge sensitive amplifier for neutron counters / Stefanie Strachan

Strachan, Stefanie January 2013 (has links)
Cosmic-ray fluctuations are monitored by neutron monitors using several different kinds of proportional counter tubes. An important component of these monitors is the electronic subsystem that registers and counts output pulses from these counter tubes. Part of the electronic subsystem is a specific preamplifier. The pulse-height distribution curve of the existing preamplifier used in the neutron monitor system at the Centre for Space Research at the North-West University was found to be incorrect, and therefore the pulse-height information cannot be used for further research on the counter tube characteristics. A correct pulse-height distribution implies that the envelope of the pulse, as generated by an amplifier, has a very specific shape as a result of the physics that governs the generation of pulses in the neutron counter tube. It was therefore proposed that a new charge-sensitive preamplifier be synthesized to provide an output that provides the correct pulse-height distribution graph for a neutron monitor system. The Centre for Space Research at the North-West University is in the process of designing and building a new mini neutron monitor system. The new charge-sensitive preamplifier will be implemented into this updated system. Ultimately, the electronic subsystem must be able to provide a pulse-height distribution graph at the push of a button, thus making the preamplifier a key component in the new design. In this dissertation the theory of charge-sensitive amplifiers is researched following a design science research methodology. The results showed that a charge-sensitive amplifier can be synthesized to address both the real-world requirements and the theoretical requirements of this research. / MIng (Electrical and Electronic Engineering), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014
118

Logghantering med mjukvara

Schulze, Henrik, Brandberg, Fredrik January 2016 (has links)
Abstract By applying principles of conducting design science research, we have developed eight guide-lines for log management. By comparing with the literature on log management, we haveinvestigated the quality and relevance of the guidelines. We also investigated whether six of theeight guidelines are relevant in the sense that they can be supported by software. / Sammanfattning Genom att tillämpa principer för att bedriva forskning i design science, har vi tagit fram åttariktlinjer för en hantering av loggar. Genom jämförelse med litteratur om logghantering har viundersökt kvalitet och relevans hos riktlinjerna. Vi har även undersökt om sex av de åttariktlinjerna är relevanta i den meningen att mjukvara kan stödja dem.
119

Exploring Designs for a Process Prioritisation Method

Ohlsson, Jens January 2016 (has links)
Problem/Purpose: Process prioritisation is an ill-structured and complex problem that remains a mystery phase in business process management (BPM) research. More explorative approaches are called upon to tackle process management problems, to facilitate process innovation and to design new processes in dynamic environments. This dissertation aims (i) to design and evaluate a Prioritisation and Categorisation Method (PCM) for addressing process prioritisation problems; and (ii) to explore process innovation by disruptive technologies. Research methods: This research follows the design science research (DSR) paradigm. The design exploration and the engaged scholarship approaches are also adapted. The demonstration and evaluation of the Prioritisation and Categorisation Method have been conducted with case studies in large Swedish companies, i.e. Seco Tools and Ericsson. An empirical study of the impacts of disruptive technologies on process innovation was conducted at a large insurance company in Sweden. Results: This research has led to the design and evaluation of the PCM: a new context-aware, effective and holistic method for BPM. In addition, the lessons learnt from the insurance case deepened the understanding of the challenges that are faced by a company when exploring new capabilities (e.g. processes and IT) for future business. Such lessons also emphasise the necessity of configuring PCM based upon business contingencies and industry factors in process prioritisation. Contributions: This dissertation contributes a novel method to explore BPM in a holistic, yet flexible and effective way. The challenges identified in process innovations improve the configuration capabilities of the PCM through a deeper understanding of the dynamic capabilities within organisations (Capability Layer Model-CLM). This research contributes design knowledge to DSR in the forms of the PCM as an invention, and the three design principles for the PCM: design by holistics, design by commitments and design by explorations. The research is evaluated as good BPM and good design science research.
120

Exploring the project management community paradigm and the role of performance prediction

Halliburton, Richard January 2014 (has links)
‘Project performance’ is the metric of delivering project objectives. This research is motivated by levels of project failure and the purpose of the research is to investigate improved project performance. The scientific spectrum is considered; arguing project management as a sub-field of management science based in ‘design science’. Despite research since the 1950s, there is no established community paradigm for project management, illustrated by multiple ‘schools of thought’ failing to stimulate performance improvement. This is investigated with respect to the changing nature of projects and their management; application in numerous industrial sectors, across increasing scope of the product lifecycle (including service projects), and the changing role of project managers as value adding ‘implementers’ rather than status ‘reporters’. Methodology examines the community paradigm and identifies the lack of community paradigm and argues that gap spotting is not appropriate. Conducting research that fills knowledge gaps does not identify underlying issues and reinforces fundamental failings. Underlying assumptions are identified and challenged. Key characteristics are examined in the context of requirements of the community paradigm. The purpose of theory is to describe, explain and predict. Some techniques describe and explain. Few, if any, predict. This locates ‘performance prediction’ as the research issue and suggests it is a missing function for performance improvement. The research focus considers single tasks within a project network. A research model of early stage deviation from plan is developed from the literature on project pathogens and incubation processes. ‘Deviation lifecycle’ as a project function is identified as having no previous evidence in literature. This is developed into a practice model extending the role of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and integrating weak signals and tipping point theory to test performance. Case studies examine representative application of the model and build on the previous cases to illustrate potential for practice. The case studies were reviewed by industrial experts. The changing role of project managers to value added implementers implies a need to improve performance. Research found potential to understand and predict early stage deviation and develops the deviation lifecycle and research model. Across the case studies the research model illustrated potential application. Practical implications indicate potential contribution of project management techniques based on prediction rather than traditional reporting. Developing the community paradigm based on design science is discussed as further work. The originality of the research challenges the lack of theoretical foundation for project management by discussion of the community paradigm and proposes design science as a candidate. The work identifies ‘prediction’ as a relevant but missing function from the project management ‘toolbox’, and introduces the concept of the deviation lifecycle and note no previous literature. The research develops an industrial research model that extends the application of FMEA to examine ‘performance’ and integrates weak signals and tipping point analysis to manage the resolution.

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