Through a critical-functional, rather than literal, reading of the text of Revelation, this dissertation hypothesises a move beyond the paralysing constant reduction of hermeneutic meaning to two conventional poles when discussing hope – the early Christian movement’s hope through reversal, and contemporary nihilism. In order to do so in a responsible manner, it is necessary to study other research done on the topics of eschatology and hope – especially as seen in the book of Revelation. For this reason, the most popular and representative scholars of the Book of Revelation are studied. This overall look at current scholarships' views regarding the Apocalypse will help detect any possible missing elements in our approach to Revelation. But no study of this topic can be considered near complete if other disciplines are not involved; in this case especially when moving on to a critical-functional reading of Revelation. This thesis thus features an exploratory study of the functioning of ritual and hope within the human psyche; from archaeological to psychological perspectives. This emphasises the importance of, and leads into, the possibilities of a functional reading of the Book of Revelation. All of the above work leads to a re-evaluation of the success of hope as metanarrative for today. The suggestion is that Christian hope is not imaginary, but is irreducibly imaginative. For “reality is never just the world as it exists; it is the world as it is experienced through the lenses of social perception” (Barr 2010:636). / New Testament / D. Th. (New Testament and Early Christian Studies)

The premise of the research concerns negative spatial legacies and questions doubting the existence of the true post-apartheid city in South Africa. The study describes the socio-spatial structure of the functional urban core of the City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality (CTMM). An empirical analysis, a unique segregation-desegregation classification, a relative socio-economic classification and three continuity-discontinuity hypotheses was used to compare past and present socio-spatial characteristics. Structural racial-residential segregation is evident along with high levels of socio-economic inequality. Spatial polarisation of societal attributes has created a clear north-west and south-east divide in the study area. The study area is described as one with a central-south citadel (inhabited by the wealthy) and a dynamic periphery (diverse but relatively deprived). Current socio-spatial characteristics can be attributed to strong spatial legacies, ineffective policy interventions and underlying socio-spatial influences that inhibit true inclusivity and equality in the study area. / Geography / M. Sc. (Geography)

Submitted by Felipe Garcia (felipe.garcia.rs@gmail.com) on 2013-06-17T19:31:46Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese de Doutorado Felipe Garcia - Versão Final.pdf: 2832465 bytes, checksum: 1b420a2d381d534eb81e82c8a092fe26 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2013-06-17T19:45:58Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese de Doutorado Felipe Garcia - Versão Final.pdf: 2832465 bytes, checksum: 1b420a2d381d534eb81e82c8a092fe26 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-06-17T19:48:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese de Doutorado Felipe Garcia - Versão Final.pdf: 2832465 bytes, checksum: 1b420a2d381d534eb81e82c8a092fe26 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-06-07 / This thesis consists of three essays, one being on economic development and the two others on economic growth. The first essay is an investigation into how access to electricity by households affects time allocation of children and teenagers from rural Brazil in what regards the choice to attend school or to engage in the labor market. To establish a causal relationship between the availability of electricity and time allocation, we use the criteria of priority works from Luz Para Todos program as a source of exogenous variation in access to electricity of households located in rural Brazil. We apply Regression Discontinuity Design and Difference in Difference estimator with endogenous variables. The results from the latter methodology indicate that the presence of electricity increases the likelihood that children and adolescents are enrolled in school and are not delayed relative to the grade they should be attending at their age. Also, the probability of a child being literate and not being working increases with the presence of electricity. One of the possible channels that could explain these results is the increased participation of mothers in the labor market. However, one cannot discard the hypothesis that the observed results are justified by the increased access to electricity by the schools, making them better and more attractive to students and by the receipt of Bolsa Familia program which is conditional on school attendence by children and teenagers. The second study aims to contribute to the literature on institutions and economic growth through the investigation of how the 1959 socialist revolution in Cuba have affected the trajectory of per capita income in that country. To do so, we apply the synthetic control method to obtain the counterfactual path of income per capita in the absence of such revolution. The results show that the trajectory of the annual GDP per capita of Cuba between 1959 to 1980 was lower than it would have been if the socialist regime had not been implemented. This result is robust to different placebo tests deployed and also to the use of different series of GDP per capita. Alternative hypotheses that could explain the lower path of GDP per capita are discussed based on the existing literature and data. The discussion suggests that institutional change was indeed the cause of the observed negative effect on the Cuban economy during the period of analysis. Finally, the third article investigates the economic cost of a natural disaster in Brazil. The paper looks at the excessive rains that happened in the state of Santa Catarina in November and December 2008. This study contributes with some new evidence to the iv recent literature on natural disasters. To our knowledge, there are no studies in Brazil that empirically measure the impact that a natural disaster has entailed on an affected region. This study is structured in two parts. The first uses synthetic control to measure the impact of rainfall on the industrial production of Santa Catarina. For that, we propose a small accommodation method for treating the effects of possible flooding rains in other states. In the second part, we use the method of difference in difference to measure the impact of the rains on the GDP per capita of the cities. The results show that for a period of two years after the end of 2008, the impact of the rains caused a lower monthly industrial production of 2.0% in Santa Catarina. For municipalities, the estimated effect of the disaster on GDP per capita was around -7.0% in 2008 and -5.0% in 2009. There was not significant effect in 2010. / Esta tese é composta por três ensaios, um na linha de desenvolvimento econômico e dois na linha de crescimento. O primeiro deles trata de uma investigação sobre o papel do acesso à energia elétrica a nível domiciliar na alocação do tempo das crianças e adolescentes do Brasil rural entre frequentar a escola e participar do mercado de trabalho. Para o estabelecimento da relação causal entre energia elétrica e a alocação de tempo se utilizam os critérios de prioridade de obras do programa Luz Para Todos como fonte de variação exógena no acesso à energia elétrica dos domicílios localizados na zona rural do Brasil. Aplicam-se os métodos de Regressão Descontínua e Diferenças em Diferenças com Variáveis Instrumentais. Os resultados obtidos da segunda metodologia apontam que a presença de energia elétrica aumenta a probabilidade das crianças e adolescentes estarem matriculadas na escola, não estarem atrasadas em relação à série que deveriam estar dada sua idade, serem alfabetizadas e não estarem trabalhando. Entre os possíveis canais capazes de explicar estes resultados está a maior participação das mães no mercado de trabalho. Entretanto, não se pode descartar a hipótese de que os resultados observados sejam justificados pelo aumento do aceso à energia elétrica a nível escolar, o que pode tornar as escolas melhores e mais atrativas, ou consequência do aumento do recebimento do programa Bolsa Família que exige frequência escolar das crianças e adolescentes. Já o segundo ensaio objetiva colaborar à literatura de instituições e crescimento econômico através da investigação do impacto da mudança institucional ocorrida em Cuba após a revolução socialista de 1959 sobre a trajetória da renda per capita do país. Para tanto, aplica-se o método de controle sintético para a obtenção do contrafactual da trajetória da renda per capita na ausência da revolução. Os resultados apontam que a trajetória do PIB per capita anual de Cuba entre 1959 a 1980 foi inferior ao que teria sido caso não tivesse sido implantado o regime socialista. Este resultado é robusto aos diferentes testes de placebo implantados e ao uso de distintas séries do PIB per capita de Cuba. Hipóteses alternativas à mudança institucional, mas também capazes de explicar a trajetória inferior do PIB per capita, são discutidas com base na literatura e na descrição de dados. A discussão sugere que foi de fato a mudança institucional a causa do efeito negativo observado sobre a economia cubana durante o período de análise. Por fim, o terceiro estudo investiga o custo econômico de um desastre natural ocorrido no Brasil em 2008, a saber, o excesso de chuvas em Santa Catarina entre os meses de novembro e dezembro daquele ano. Este artigo colabora com mais uma evidência para a recente literatura de desastres naturais. No Brasil não há nenhum trabalho, sob nosso conhecimento, medindo empiricamente o impacto que um desastre natural tenha acarretado a uma região atingida. Este estudo está estruturado em duas partes. Na primeira se utiliza o controle sintético para medir o impacto das chuvas na produção industrial de Santa Catarina. Propõe-se uma pequena acomodação do método para tratar o possível transbordamento dos efeitos das chuvas nos demais estados. Já na segunda parte, utiliza-se o método de diferenças em diferenças para medir o impacto das chuvas no PIB per capita das cidades mais atingidas. Os resultados apontam que para um período de dois anos após o final de 2008, o desastre causou uma produção industrial mensal 2.0% menor do que seria caso as chuvas não tivessem ocorrido. Por municípios, o efeito estimado do desastre sobre o PIB per capita se situou ao redor de -7,0% em 2008 e -5,0% em 2009. Em 2010 não há evidências de efeito.

Introduction: No Fixed-Dose Combination (FDC) formulations currently exist for pediatric tuberculosis (TB) treatment. Earlier work implemented, in the software NONMEM, a rational method for optimizing design and individualization of pediatric anti-TB FDC formulations based on patient body weight, but issues with parameter estimation, dosage strata heterogeneity and representative pharmacokinetics remained. Aim: To further develop the rational model-based methodology aiding the selection of appropriate FDC formulation designs and dosage regimens, in pediatric TB treatment. Materials and Methods: Optimization of the method with respect to the estimation of body weight breakpoints was sought. Heterogeneity of dosage groups with respect to treatment efficiency was sought to be improved. Recently published pediatric pharmacokinetic parameters were implemented and the model translated to MATLAB, where also the performance was evaluated by stochastic estimation and graphical visualization. Results: A logistic function was found better suited as an approximation of breakpoints. None of the estimation methods implemented in NONMEM were more suitable than the originally used FO method. Homogenization of dosage group treatment efficiency could not be solved. MATLAB translation was successful but required stochastic estimations and highlighted high densities of local minima. Representative pharmacokinetics were successfully implemented. Conclusions: NONMEM was found suboptimal for the task due to problems with discontinuities and heterogeneity, but a stepwise method with representative pharmacokinetics were successfully implemented. MATLAB showed more promise in the search for a method also addressing the heterogeneity issue.

Dans cette thèse, plusieurs approches de modélisation de composites renforcés par des fibres sont proposées. Le matériau étudié est le béton fibré, et dans ce modèle, on tient compte de l’influence de trois constituants : le béton, les fibres, et la liaison entre eux. Le comportement du béton est analysé avec un modèle d’endommagement, les fibres d'acier sont considérées comme élastiques linéaires, et le comportement sur l'interface est décrit avec une loi de glissement avec l’extraction complète de la fibre. Une approche multi-échelle pour coupler tous les constituants est proposée, dans laquelle le calcul à l'échelle macro est effectué en utilisant la procédure de solution operator-split. Cette approche partitionnée divise le calcul en deux phases, globale et locale, dans lesquelles différents mécanismes de rupture sont traités séparément, ce qui est conforme au comportement du composite observé expérimentalement. L'identification des paramètres est effectuée en minimisant l'erreur entre les valeurs calculées et mesurées. Les modèles proposés sont validés par des exemples numériques. / In this thesis, several approaches for modeling fiber-reinforced composites are proposed. The material under consideration is fiber-reinforced concrete, which is composed of a few constituents: concrete, short steel fibers, and the interface between them. The behavior of concrete is described by a damage model with localized failure, fibers are taken to be linear elastic, and the behavior of the interface is modeled with a bond-slip pull-out law. A multi-scale approach for coupling all the constituents is proposed, where the macro-scale computation is carried out using the operator-split solution procedure. This partitioned approach divides the computation in two phases, global and local, where different failure mechanisms are treated separately, which is in accordance with the experimentally observed composite behavior. An inverse model for fiber-reinforced concrete is presented, where the stochastic caracterization of the fibers is known from their distribution inside the domain. Parameter identification is performed by minimizing the error between the computed and measured values. The proposed models are validated through numerical examples.

[pt] O objetivo deste trabalho é contribuir para o debate sobre políticas de accountability educacional através da avaliação do programa cearense Prêmio Escola Nota Dez. Para tal, partimos do referencial da teoria democrática e da administração pública sob o prisma dos fundamentos de teoria social de Coleman visando construir uma abordagem analítica capaz de considerar não apenas os objetivos e resultados da política, mas seu contexto e tipos de incentivos, em um modelo de ação que leve em conta os agentes, recursos que dispõem e ações que empreenderam ao nível micro e que se agregam para modificar a realidade ao nível macro. Sendo um de dois sistemas de incentivos do PAIC - Programa Alfabetização na Idade Certa, o prêmio busca incrementar o desempenho do sistema escolar promovendo competição entre escolas por uma premiação dada às 150 primeiras de acordo com um ranking. Para moderar possíveis danos desta competição à equidade do sistema, o programa provê também um apoio, como forma de compensação, ás 150 escolas pior posicionadas. Além disso, tenta integrar as escolas beneficiadas em relações de cooperação, na qual as premiadas devem ajudar as apoiadas a cumprir suas metas. Utilizando-se de dados da Prova Brasil e do SPAECE, realizamos um estudo de série temporal com objetivo de avaliar os impactos líquidos do prêmio em relação à outras ações no âmbito do PAIC. Embora preliminares, os resultados indicam impactos em língua portuguesa no SPAECE, mas que não se reproduzem em matemática ou na Prova Brasil. No que diz respeito à equidade, observou-se que a estabilização dos indicadores de equidade da rede coincidiu com a introdução do prêmio. Mensuramos também os impactos dos incentivos pagos às escolas por meio de análise de regressão descontinua e observamos que os ganhos das escolas premiadas se concentraram na avaliação de disputa do prêmio, enquanto que os das escolas apoiadas se concentraram na avaliação de cumprimento de metas. No que diz respeito à equidade, os ganhos das escolas premiadas no SPAECE foram alcançados com aumento do percentual de alunos em nível adequado, porém com aumento da desigualdade interna, enquanto que os ganhos das escolas apoiadas indicam melhoria da equidade e aumento do percentual de alunos no nível adequado. Enquanto os efeitos positivos para as escolas apoiadas continuam a ocorrer ao longo do ciclo do prêmio, os ganhos das escolas premiadas parecem ser conjunturais e restritos à avaliação em que ocorre a competição. Por fim, concluímos que a maior lição que nos mostra o Estado do Ceará é que não basta um programa de bonificação ou distribuição de recursos: uma visão integrada que busque coordenar as ações entre agentes em diversos níveis institucionais e entes federativos pode ser um dos fatores decisivos para o sucesso das políticas cearenses. / [en] The objective of this is to contribute to the discussion about educational accountability policies through the evaluation of the program Prêmio Escola Nota Dez in the Brazilian state of Ceará. Therefore, our references como from Democratic Theory and Public Management, in the perspective of Coleman s Social Theory. Our aim is building an analytical approach able to consider the policies objectives and results, as well as its context and types of bonus, focusing on an action model that considers the agents, the resources they have and the actions they implement in a micro perspective that turns into a macro social change. There are two rewarding systems in the program Alfabetização na Idade Certa (PAIC in portuguese), and Escola Nota Dez Award is oneof them. It aims on increasing the performance of the school system by promoting competition among schools for an award given to the first 150 ones according to ranking. In order to control possible damages coming from this competition that could affect system equity, the program also provides a support, as a way of compensation, to the 150 worst-off schools in the ranking. Therefore, it tries to integrate the benefited schools into cooperative relations, in which the awarded schools must help the supported ones to fulfill their goals. Using dta from Prova Brasil and from the Basic Education Permanent Evaluation System of Ceará State (SPAECE in portuguese), we have conducted a time series analysis focusing on the impacts of this award in relation to other actions of PAIC. Even preliminary, the results indicate impacts on portuguese outcomes in SPAECE, but they do not show up in mathematics or on Prova Brasil. It was also observed that the stabilization of equity indicators of the educational system coincided with the time when the award was established. We have also measured the impacts of the prize paid to schools through the analysis of regression discontinuity, and we have observed that the benefits for the awarded schools focused on the evaluation of the competition for the prize, while the supported schools focused on assessing the goals achievement. Concerning equity, the achiavements of the awarded schools in SPAECE were accomplished in inequality inside the schools, while the achievements of the supported schools indicate an improvement in equity and an increase in the percentage of students at the satisfactory level. The positive effects for the supported schools continue to occur throughout the period of the award, while the benefits for the awarded schools seem to be temporary and restricted to the time of the competition. Finally, we conclud that the greatest lesson that Ceará state shows us is that a program of bonuses or resources distribution is not enough - an integrated vision that focuses on coordinating action among agents at different institutional levels and federative entities may be one of decisive factors for the succes of Ceará s policies.

Rapid digitalisation development has been stampeding widely across today’s societies, and not least in the payment industry. Though, the digitalisation in the payment industry has been very deviating, even between similar well-developed countries, and while there are positive and negative effects with both digital- and physical payment means, there is little knowledge that highlights the influencing factors and accompanied problems. This study therefore explore swhich, and how, different factors influence a country’s degree of digital payments, and creates further understanding of where the payment markets are heading in the future. It is done through a case study of four different industrialised countries, Sweden, Italy, Canada, and Switzerland which involves mapping the countries’ payment markets, as well as potential factors influencing a population’s payment habits, through a perspective of innovation theory in terms of dominant designs and technological discontinuities. Theory of network externalities and two-sided platforms are further used to explain and discuss how a two-sided market, likethe payment market, is affected by changes and other circumstances in different ways.Conclusions are then drawn from the used theories together with a comparison of the findings,and identifies certain influencers to a country’s distribution of payments, as well as provides indications of where the different payments markets are heading in the future. Data is mainly gathered through written material and credible databases, but also from semi-structured interviews. / Den snabba digitaliseringen har slagit sig fram i dagens samhällen, och inte minst i betalningsindustrin. Dock har digitaliseringen i betalningsindustrin varit mycket avvikande mellan liknande välutvecklade länder, och medan det finns positiva och negativa effekter med både digitala och fysiska betalningsmedel, finns det inte mycket kunskap om påverkandefaktorer och medföljande problem. Denna studie undersöker därför vilka, och hur, olika faktorer påverkar ett lands grad av digitala betalningar, och vidare skapar ytterligare förståelse för var betalningsmarknaderna är på väg framöver. Detta görs genom en fallstudie av fyra olika industrialiserade länder, Sverige, Italien, Kanada och Schweiz, som innebär en kartläggning av ländernas betalningsmarknader, och av potentiella faktorer som påverkar befolkningens betalningsvanor, genom ett perspektiv från innovationsteori i form av dominerande design och tekniska diskontinuiteter. Teori om nätverksexternaliteter och tvåsidiga plattformar används vidare för att förklara och diskutera hur en tvåsidig marknad som betalningsmarknadenpåverkas av förändringar och andra omständigheter. Slutsatser dras sedan från de användateorierna tillsammans med en jämförelse av resultaten och identifierar påverkande faktorer tillett lands betalningsdistribution, samt ger indikationer på var de olika betalningsmarknaderna är på väg framöver. Data samlades huvudsakligen in genom skriftligt material och från tillförlitliga databaser, men även från semistrukturerade intervjuer.

Forskning om entreprenörskap fokuserar på framgång som ignorerar den höga felfrekvensen av Nya företag. Många nya företag misslyckas så hur entreprenörer hantera det när deras företag misslyckas? Framgångsrika entreprenörer prisar fördelarna med misslyckande som en värdefull lärare. Resultatet av misslyckande regelbundet fylld med ekonomiska, sociala, psykologiska och fysiska hälsoproblem. Syftet med denna forskning är att bedöma företagets misslyckande upplevelser för företagare, från det ögonblick resultatet genom att  återhämtningen för att hantera företagande fel och avsluta för påverkan av den slutna företag.  I denna forskning aspekter av livet som påverka av entreprenörs fel undersöka ekonomiskt, socialt och psykologiskt att belysa faktorer som kan påverka mängden av kostnaderna för ett misslyckande. Därefter beskriver forskningen hur entreprenörer lära av misslyckanden. Den presenterar på resultaten av företagets misslyckande, inklusive hantera fel och återhämtning tillsammans med kognitiva och beteendemässiga utfall. / Research on entrepreneurship focuses on success which ignores the high failure rate of new ventures. Many new ventures fail so how entrepreneurs deal with it when their venture    fails? Successful entrepreneurs praising the advantages of failure as a valuable teacher. The result of failure is regularly filled with economic, social, psychological, and physical health disorder. The aim of this research is to assessment venture failure experiences for entrepreneurs, from the instant result through to recovery for coping with entrepreneurial failure and exit for impact of the closed venture. In this research, aspects of life affected by entrepreneurial failure examine economically, socially and psychologically in highlighting factors that may influence the amount of costs of failure. Next, the research describes how entrepreneurs learn from failure. It presents on the outcomes of venture failure, including coping with failure and recovery together with cognitive and behavioral outcomes. The main objective of the research study is to understand the failure from entrepreneurs    who have experienced it and also to make a theoretical framework of failure based on entrepreneurial venture failure experiences. Every entrepreneur starts up a venture with high expectations of achieving success. Failure can be emotionally disturbing, devastating,  painful, distressing and costly for the entrepreneur who may have to aspect the stigma of failure and the loss of reputation. The entrepreneur can get involved in grief, heartache, anxiety, depression, shame, rejection and discouragement (Politis & Gabrielsson, 2009). The purpose of the research is to investigate how entrepreneurs realize and react to venture  failure. Moreover, entrepreneurs are looking for positive aspects of failure as enhancing experiences that help their coping with entrepreneurial failure, learning from failure, the willingness to begin a new venture and also trigger changes in upcoming decision-making. The purpose of the research is to take a view of the existed experience of failure, taking into consideration impact from the entrepreneurship.

Cette thèse est organisée en trois chapitres et s’articule autour des questions liées à la famille, à l’éducation et à la santé dans les pays en développement. Le premier chapitre s’intéresse à la compréhension de la maladie VIH et de son lien avec les caractéristiques socio-économiques des populations en Afrique subsaharienne. Dans ce chapitre, j’analyse l’existence d’une relation causale entre le niveau d’éducation et le fait d’être porteur du virus VIH chez les femmes. Grâce à la reforme de gratuité de l’éducation primaire adoptée et mise en œuvre en Zambie dès 2002 et qui a contribué à une augmentation substantielle du niveau d’éducation chez les femmes, j’estime une régression sur discontinuité que j’interagis avec la construction de nouvelles écoles. Les résultats montrent qu’une augmentation exogène de l’éducation des filles conduit à une augmentation du taux de VIH chez la femme ; et qu’il n’y a pas d’évidence que la connaissance que les femmes ont du VIH soit liée à l'augmentation de leur niveau d'éducation. Aussi, l’éducation des femmes n’améliore pas leur comportement à risque. Cet effet positif de l’éducation sur le VIH est plutôt dû à l’urbanisation accrue des femmes les plus instruites. Le deuxième et le troisième chapitre portent sur le confiage des enfants en Afrique. Dans le chapitre 2, co-écrit avec Caleb Gbeholo, nous examinons les déterminants de confiage des enfants et les caractéristiques de l’enfant confié. A cet effet, nous utilisons les données d’une enquête que nous avons organisé et réalisé au Bénin en 2022 et qui porte sur les conditions de vie dans l’enfance et la qualité de vie à l’âge adulte. Les analyses montrent que le niveau d’éducation des parents et la perte d’un parent pendant l’enfance sont associés au confiage des enfants. En ce qui concerne le choix de l’enfant confié, les résultats montrent que les filles sont généralement les plus confiées et la probabilité d’être confié décroît strictement avec l’ordre de naissance de l’enfant dans la fratrie. Le chapitre 3 est co-écrit avec Caleb Gbeholo, Raphael Godefroy et Joshua Lewis. Il étudie l’effet du confiage sur l’éducation et la fertilité. En utilisant les mêmes données que celle du chapitre 2, nous montrons que les adultes confiés dans leur enfance sont moins susceptibles de fréquenter une école que leurs frères et sœurs non confiés. Nous montrons que cette différence du niveau d’éducation s’est accrue après la réforme du système éducatif dans les années 1990 au Bénin. Par ailleurs, nous trouvons qu’il n’existe aucune différence de fertilité entre les enfants confiés et les frères et sœurs non confiés. Nous estimons que le confiage peut expliquer une part importante de la différence de niveau d’éducation entre les hommes et les femmes. / This dissertation is organized in three chapters and revolves around issues related to family, education and health in developing countries. The first chapter studies how education affects women's HIV infection. By using an education reform that led to a sharp increase in women's education in Zambia, I estimate RDD, interacted with geographic differences in school supply. I find that an increase in female education led to HIV higher rate. I find no evidence that education affected women's HIV knowledge and their risky behaviors. Instead, the results are driven by the increased urbanization of the better educated women. The second and third chapters address the practice of child fostering in Sub-saharan Africa. In the chapter 2, co-authored with Caleb Gbeholo, we examine the determinants of child fostering across and within family in Benin. In this purpose, we rely a dataset that comes from a unique survey that we designed and conducted in Benin in 2022. We find that parents' education and the lost of one parent during childhood are associated with child fostering. The fostered child is chosen according his gender and his birth order, with daughters facing a high risk of fostering during childhood. Furthermore, the child probability to be foster is steady decline by birth order. The chapter 3, co-authored with Caleb Gbeholo, Raphael Godefroy and Joshua Lewis, studies the effect of child fostering on education and fertility. Using the same dataset as in chapter 2, we estimate that adults who were fostered as a child are significantly less likely to have attended school than their siblings. We show that this difference in education achievement increased after the launch of an education reform in the 1990s. We find no difference in fertility. We estimate that the practice of child fostering may account for a substantial share of the gender gap in education.

[pt] Essa tese é composta por dois capítulos. O primeiro deles refere-se ao problema de aprendizado sequencial, útil em diversos campos de pesquisa e aplicações práticas. Exemplos incluem problemas de apreçamento dinâmico, desenhos de leilões e de incentivos, além de programas e tratamentos sequenciais. Neste capítulo, propomos a extensão de uma das mais populares regras de aprendizado, epsilon-greedy, para contextos de alta-dimensão, levando em consideração uma diretriz conservadora. Em particular, nossa proposta consiste em alocar parte do tempo que a regra original utiliza na adoção de ações completamente novas em uma busca focada em um conjunto restrito de ações promissoras. A regra resultante pode ser útil para aplicações práticas nas quais existem restrições suaves à adoção de ações não-usuais, mas que eventualmente, valorize surpresas positivas, ainda que a uma taxa decrescente. Como parte dos resultados, encontramos limites plausíveis, com alta probabilidade, para o remorso cumulativo para a regra epsilon-greedy conservadora em alta-dimensão. Também, mostramos a existência de um limite inferior para a cardinalidade do conjunto de ações viáveis que implica em um limite superior menor para o remorso da regra conservadora, comparativamente a sua versão não-conservadora. Adicionalmente, usuários finais possuem suficiente flexibilidade em estabelecer o nível de segurança que desejam, uma vez que tal nível não impacta as propriedades teóricas da regra de aprendizado proposta. Ilustramos nossa proposta tanto por meio de simulação, quanto por meio de um exercício utilizando base de dados de um problema real de sistemas de classificação. Por sua vez, no segundo capítulo, investigamos efeitos de tratamento determinísticos quando a regra de aloção é complexa e desconhecida, talvez por razões éticas, ou para evitar manipulação ou competição desnecessária. Mais especificamente, com foco na metodologia de regressão discontínua sharp, superamos a falta de conhecimento de pontos de corte na alocação de unidades, pela implementação de uma floresta de árvores de classificação, que também utiliza aprendizado sequencial na sua construção, para garantir que, assintoticamente, as regras de alocação desconhecidas sejam identificadas corretamente. A estrutura de árvore também é útil nos casos em que a regra de alocação desconhecida é mais complexa que as tradicionais univariadas. Motivado por exemplos da vida prática, nós mostramos nesse capítulo que, com alta probabilidade e baseado em premissas razoáveis, é possível estimar consistentemente os efeitos de tratamento sob esse cenário. Propomos ainda um algoritmo útil para usuários finais que se mostrou robusto para diferentes especificações e que revela com relativa confiança a regra de alocação anteriormente desconhecida. Ainda, exemplificamos os benefícios da metodologia proposta pela sua aplicação em parte do P900, um programa governamental Chileno de suporte para escolas, que se mostrou adequado ao cenário aqui estudado. / [en] Sequential learning problems are common in several fields of research and practical applications. Examples include dynamic pricing and assortment, design of auctions and incentives and permeate a large number of sequential treatment experiments. In this essay, we extend one of the most popular learning solutions, the epsilon-greedy heuristics, to high-dimensional contexts considering a conservative directive. We do this by allocating part of the time the original rule uses to adopt completely new actions to a more focused search in a restrictive set of promising actions. The resulting rule might be useful for practical applications that still values surprises, although at a decreasing rate, while also has restrictions on the adoption of unusual actions. With high probability, we find reasonable bounds for the cumulative regret of a conservative high-dimensional decaying epsilon-greedy rule. Also, we provide a lower bound for the cardinality of the set of viable actions that implies in an improved regret bound for the conservative version when compared to its non-conservative counterpart. Additionally, we show that end-users have sufficient flexibility when establishing how much safety they want, since it can be tuned without impacting theoretical properties. We illustrate our proposal both in a simulation exercise and using a real dataset. The second essay studies deterministic treatment effects when the assignment rule is both more complex than traditional ones and unknown to the public perhaps, among many possible causes, due to ethical reasons, to avoid data manipulation or unnecessary competition. More specifically, sticking to the well-known sharp RDD methodology, we circumvent the lack of knowledge of true cutoffs by employing a forest of classification trees which also uses sequential learning, as in the last essay, to guarantee that, asymptotically, the true unknown assignment rule is correctly identified. The tree structure also turns out to be suitable if the program s rule is more sophisticated than traditional univariate ones. Motivated by real world examples, we show in this essay that, with high probability and based on reasonable assumptions, it is possible to consistently estimate treatment effects under this setup. For practical implementation we propose an algorithm that not only sheds light on the previously unknown assignment rule but also is capable to robustly estimate treatment effects regarding different specifications imputed by end-users. Moreover, we exemplify the benefits of our methodology by employing it on part of the Chilean P900 school assistance program, which proves to be suitable for our framework.