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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
371

La politique linguistique de la Turquie en vue d’une adhésion à l’Union européenne / Turkey's language policy for accession to the European Union

Gulmez, Recep 05 December 2017 (has links)
La Turquie a connu un nouveau tournant dans les relations entre l'UE et la Turquie le 3 octobre 2005, lorsque les négociations pour la pleine adhésion ont débuté. Lorsque le gouvernement turc de coalition a commencé à améliorer les droits de l'homme et les droits des minorités en Turquie en 1999, l'Union européenne a commencé à adopter une perspective différente sur son adhésion à l'UE. L'objectif de cette étude est de mettre en lumière les progrès réalisés en matière de droits de l'homme et de droits linguistiques des minorités non officielles en Turquie compte tenu de l'adhésion à l'Union européenne. L'étude est basée sur une analyse documentaire, une méthode de recherche en sciences politiques, où nous avons examiné les rapports de progrès et les résolutions du Parlement européen sur les progrès réalisés par la Turquie ainsi que d'autres documents internationaux relatifs à la minorité et/ou aux droits de l'homme et les documents d’archive ottoman et turc. Ces documents ont été examinés sous l'angle des droits linguistiques. Nous avons découvert que la Turquie devrait élargir sa compréhension des minorités et que le turc doit être la langue officielle tandis que toutes les autres langues devraient être reconnues officiellement sans donner un statut de minorité. Donc, si un ressortissant turc veut avoir un emploi dans une unité gouvernementale, il doit connaître le turc alors que sa propre langue maternelle n'est pas interdite, comme en Angleterre et en France, où l'anglais ou le français sont obligatoires alors que toutes les autres langues sont libres à apprendre et pratiquer dans les médias, l'école et en public. / Turkey had a new turning point in EU-Turkey relations on 3 October 2005 when the negotiations for full membership started. When the Turkish government of coalition started to improve human rights and minority rights in Turkey, the European Union commenced to adopt a different perspective on the accession to the EU in 1999. The objective of this study is to shed light on the progress in human rights and linguistic rights of the unofficial minorities in Turkey in view of European Union membership. The study is based on document analysis, one of research methods in political science, where we examined the progress reports and European Parliament resolutions on the progress made by Turkey as well as other international documents related to the minority and/or human rights besides Ottoman and Turkish archives. These documents were examined from the perspective of language rights. We found out that Turkey should broaden its understanding of minorities and the language of the state should be Turkish while all other languages should be recognized officially. So, if one national wants to have a job in any government unit, Turkish must be the official language while their own mother tongue is not forbidden like in England and France where English or French respectively are obligatory while all other languages are free to be learned and practiced in media, school, and in public.
372

La politique agricole commune et l'économie belge

Herinckx-Pirlot, Jacqueline January 1968 (has links)
Doctorat en sciences sociales, politiques et économiques / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
373

Des politiques nationales à une politique communautaire de coopération au développement : Jeux de pouvoir et conflits d’intérêts entre l’Union européenne et ses Etats membres / From national policies to a european policies of development cooperation : power struggle and conflics of interests between the eu and ist member states

Sabourin, Amandine 14 January 2013 (has links)
Cette these porte sur une analyse de politique publique dans un champ d'action internationale, la cooperation au developpement. l'etude s'interesse particulierement au cas de la construction de la politique communautaire de cooperation au developpement, et de son affirmation visa- vis des politiques nationales europeennes. pour ce faire, cette these analyse d'un point de vue qualitatif les ressorts de l'action de l'union europeenne, a la fois pour penser le developpement dans la caraïbe, et pour penser et faire l'europe. de l'autonomisation d'une politique a l'harmonisation des politiques nationales par le bas, c'est une veritable recomposition du systeme d'acteurs qui s'opere. ce renforcement de l'integration europeenne, dans un domaine d'action partage, par le biais d'outils renouveles de l'action publique, dessine alors progressivement les premices et les contours du cadre legislatif qui a ete mis en place par le traite de lisbonne en 2009 / This dissertation analyses a public policy in an international field of action: the development cooperation. the study focuses in particular on the emergence of the european community policy of development cooperation and its assertion towards european national policies. using a qualitative methodology, this research aims to improve the understanding of the motivation and the processes at stake within the european union. the field analysis has led to observe both how the development policy in the caribbean ras been thought and built, and how this process may rave an impact on the european integration process itself. from the empowerment of a policy to the harmonisation of national policies, this process carries also consequences on the system of actors, which ras been reconstructed by those changes. as a result, the european integration process has been strengthened in a field where the competence is generally shared between the eu and its member states. bringing out some new or renewed tools of public action, this outlines also some of the signs or provisions of the forthcoming legal and political framework, set up by the 2009 lisbon treaty
374

« C’est arrivé près de chez vous » :une analyse de l’émergence du modèle d’investissement social européen en Région wallonne saisie par les instruments

Sbaraglia, Fanny 07 March 2018 (has links)
Depuis la crise économique, le système politique européen a évolué vers un renforcement du poids des exécutifs nationaux et européens dans le processus décisionnel de l’UE (Bickerton et al. 2015). Au travers de différents pactes, les Etats membres ont défini des objectifs socio-économiques à moyen terme (un déficit public de max. 3% du PIB), des garde-fous pour éviter les échecs (comme la surveillance multilatérale) et des méthodes pour y parvenir. Parmi celles-ci le modèle d’investissement social (IS) a pour ambition de moderniser les systèmes sociaux nationaux face aux nouveaux risques individuels (Bonoli, 2005) par la promotion de l’égalité des chances, de la formation tout au long de la vie, l’aide à la petite enfance et la jeunesse. Au-delà d’une influence sur l’orientation des politiques sociales, l’IS promeut d’une part des instruments de mise en œuvre performatifs axés sur l’évaluation, la sanction et les résultats (Le Galès, 2016). Et d’autre part, le modèle européen d’IS tend à favoriser la territorialisation des politiques sociales en définissant les régions comme lieu de mise en œuvre privilégié des politiques sociales (Ferrera, 2016). Cette triple transformation conduit à la question centrale de cette recherche :comment la contrainte européenne, définie par l’orientation et les instruments de l’IS, influence-t-elle l’élaboration et la mise en œuvre des politiques sociales au niveau infranational ?Dans une approche d’instrumentation des politiques publiques, nous définissons le Fonds social européen comme traceur de changements et nous analysons de manière systématique et longitudinale les implications sociétales et politiques de l’IS, c’est-à-dire les orientations et l’organisation sectorielles des politiques sociales infranationales, leurs instruments de mise en œuvre ainsi que les pratiques et les représentations des acteurs. Afin de répondre à cette problématique, notre recherche repose sur une étude de cas qualitative approfondie en Région wallonne, et plus particulièrement, dans les secteurs de la formation professionnelle et de l’insertion sociale. Bien qu’étant un cas extrême de fédéralisme budgétaire et politique, cette région peut être définie comme un cas similaire à de nombreuses régions en transition dans l’UE. Au travers d’une triangulation de données (documentaires, observations et entretiens), nous démontrons comment l’IS oriente les politiques sociales vers le « tout à l’entreprise », rationnalise la mise en œuvre par une approche hiérarchisée et contractualisée de l’organisation des acteurs, mobilise des instruments performatifs comme la mise en œuvre par projets, et finalement, induit des pratiques managériales et une gestion permanente de l’incertitude chez les acteurs sectoriels infranationaux. Au-delà du cas spécifique du FSE et des politiques de formation et d’insertion, cette recherche contribue à la littérature qui questionne le retour de l’Etat comme investisseur dans les politiques publiques, l’européanisation infranationale des politiques sociales et les implications politiques des transformations administratives et organisationnelles récentes. / Doctorat en Sciences politiques et sociales / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
375

The impact of the European Union on turkish foreign policy during the pre-accession process to the European Union, 1997-2005: à la carte Europeanisation / Impact de l'Union Européenne sur la politique extérieure de la Turquie pendant le processus de pré-adhésion à l'Union Européenne, 1997-2005: Européanisation à la carte.

Gurkan, Seda 06 June 2014 (has links)
The dissertation is about the impact of the European Union (EU) on the foreign policy of a candidate in the pre-accession period. More specifically, the research analyses the factors and processes that intervene between the EU power to generate change in Turkish foreign policy and Turkish national compliance with the EU conditions between 1997 and 2005 by way of analysing three cases: Turkish foreign policy towards Cyprus issue, Greek-Turkish bilateral problems in the Aegean Sea; and Turkey’s stance vis-à-vis the launch of the ESDP. Main question the research addresses is “why does a candidate choose to comply (or fail to comply) with the EU conditions in foreign policy?” In other words: “How (through what mechanisms) does the EU generate compliance with the EU conditions in foreign policy?” The dissertation approaches these questions through the perspective of the Europeanization literature and its conditionality school drawing on the Rational Choice Institutionalism. In accordance with this rationalist account, main argument the doctoral research intends to prove is that “the EU’s adaptational pressure on Turkey (operationalized as a function of clear/attainable membership perspective and credible conditionality policy) is a necessary yet not a sufficient condition for domestic compliance in foreign policy if the cost of compliance is high for the target government. In this respect, domestic actors’ strategic calculation is the ultimate determinant of the compliance degrees at the domestic level. In order to prove this core hypothesis, the research used theory testing process-tracing, longitudinal comparison of cases, counter-factual reasoning and the use of a control case. The evidence for testing the argument comes from the measurement of conditionality (measured as the linkage between a given foreign policy condition and membership-related reward) and domestic compliance (measured as foreign policy output ranging from rhetorical to behavioural change) through the content analysis of primary documents. This analysis is complemented with 33 semi-structured elite interviews. The dissertation by proving that the EU’s transformative power in foreign policy works through the cost and benefit calculation of the ruling party and by elaborating on the conditions under which the EU can interfere with this rational calculus (hence modify the opportunity structure for the target government), advances our understanding of the EU’s transformative power and contributes to the Accession Europeanization literature in general. Furthermore, the study provides additional empirical as well as theoretical in-depth case knowledge to the available literature on the Europeanization of Turkey and Turkish foreign policy. / Doctorat en Sciences politiques et sociales / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
376

Les politiques européennes de promotion de la démocratie: une analyse des rôles du Parlement et de la Commission dans les cas tunisien et marocain, 2006-2012 / European democracy promotion policies: an analysis of the Parliament and Commission's roles in Tunisia and Morocco, 2006-2012

Mouhib, Leila 26 March 2013 (has links)
Partant du constat de la constitution de la promotion de la démocratie comme enjeu des relations internationales et de politique étrangère, la présente recherche s’interroge sur les politiques menées en la matière par l’Union européenne dans le cadre des relations avec ses voisins méditerranéens, particulièrement le Maroc et la Tunisie. L’analyse se concentre sur l’Instrument européen pour la démocratie et les droits de l’homme, sur la période 2007-2012.<p>L’objectif est de comprendre et d’expliquer les pratiques des différents groupes d’acteurs impliqués dans ces politiques, au sein de la Commission (DG Relex/SEAE, DG Devco, délégations) et du Parlement (sous-commission DROI).<p>La position défendue est la suivante :les pratiques européennes de promotion de la démocratie au Maroc et en Tunisie sont fonction de l’identité des groupes institutionnels qui les mettent en œuvre. Pour chaque groupe institutionnel, peuvent être mis en évidence des normes, intérêts et ressources qui contribuent à défendre et renforcer l’identité institutionnelle. Dès lors, des pratiques qui peuvent paraître incohérentes au premier abord (pourquoi agir au Maroc et pas en Tunisie ?pourquoi créer l’IEDDH et, parallèlement, évincer l’objectif de promotion de la démocratie de la coopération bilatérale avec la Tunisie ?) prennent tout leur sens lorsqu’on parvient à restituer la fonction sociale qu’elles assurent.<p> / Doctorat en Sciences politiques et sociales / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
377

Les produits-frontière dans la législation alimentaire de l'Union européenne: émergence d'une santé alimentaire entre logique du marché intérieur et exigences de sécurité / Borderline-products in the EU food law: emergence of health food between internal market logic and security requirements.

Thebaud, Edern 05 October 2012 (has links)
Si le droit connaît les médicaments et les denrées alimentaires, il ne reconnaît pas les alicaments. Or, ces dernières années ont vu l’apparition et le développement, sur le marché de l’Union européenne, de « produits-frontière » c'est-à-dire de produits se trouvant à la frontière entre les médicaments et les aliments. Confrontées à un vaste conflit de qualification causé par l’ambivalence conceptuelle des « produits-frontière », les institutions de l’Union ont, au nom de la libre circulation des marchandises ainsi que de la nécessité d’une protection accrue des consommateurs et de la santé publique, entamé, dès le début des années 2000, une large harmonisation des dispositions nationales relatives à ces produits. Considérés comme aliments, leur nature particulière nécessite cependant une approche adaptative de la part du législateur européen. Cette nouvelle approche de l’aliment par le droit, favorable à la reconnaissance d’une santé alimentaire, tant convoitée par la société contemporaine, ne résout toutefois pas l’ambiguïté quant à la place à accorder aux « produits-frontière » dans le corpus juridique de l’Union européenne. / Doctorat en Sciences juridiques / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
378

Harmonisation européenne du crédit hypothécaire: perspectives de droit comparé, de droit international privé et de droit européen / European harmonization of mortage backed loans from a perspective of comparative law, private international law and european law

Van den Haute, Erik 02 October 2008 (has links)
La réalisation du marché intérieur européen par une meilleure intégration des marchés financiers est aujourd’hui devenue une réalité. L'objectif est toutefois loin d'être atteint en matière de crédit hypothécaire, nonobstant de nombreuses initiatives européennes. Compte tenu de ces difficultés et du postulat selon lequel il serait impossible d'harmoniser le droit des suretés immobilières en raison de leur ancrage culturel et national, une proposition alternative consistant dans la création d'une sûreté immobilière commune (euro-hypothèque), venant se superposer aux systèmes nationaux, a été formulée depuis un certain nombre d'années. La recherche analyse dans un premier temps la réalité du postulat précité à la lumière du droit comparé et conclut qu'en réalité, les différents systèmes trouvent non seulement leur origine dans un modèle identique, fondé sur le caractère accessoire de la sûreté, mais ont en outre connu une évolution similaire au cours de ces dernières années. Il apparaît que ce modèle constitue la meilleure base pour toute harmonisation européenne. Après avoir examiné l'interaction avec le droit international privé, sous l'angle de la protection du consommateur, et le droit européen, sous l'angle de la question de la compétence communautaire et du principe de subsidiarité, des pistes sont proposés pour opérer un rapprochement des législations nationales relatives au crédit hypothécaire. La proposition consiste à intégrer dans un seul instrument juridique contraignant (une directive européenne) les différentes propositions permettant d'opérer un rapprochement des législations nationales à trois niveaux :celui de la sûreté immobilière et de la publicité foncier, celui du contrat de prêt et enfin, celui relatif à la procédure de réalisation de l'immeuble. / Doctorat en droit / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
379

Family, work and welfare states in Europe: women's juggling with multiple roles :a series of empirical essays / Famille, emploi et état-providence: la jonglerie des femmes avec leurs multiples rôles

O'Dorchai, Sile Padraigin 24 January 2007 (has links)
The general focus of this thesis is on how the family, work and the welfare system are intertwined. A major determinant is the way responsibilities are shared by the state, the market and civil society in different welfare state regimes. An introductory chapter will therefore be dedicated to the development of the social dimension in the process of European integration. A first chapter will then go deeper into the comparative analysis of welfare state regimes, to comment on the provision of welfare in societies with a different mix of state, market and societal welfare roles and to assess the adequacy of existing typologies as reflections of today’s changed socio-economic, political and gender reality. Although they stand strong on their own, these first two chapters also contribute to contextualising the research subject of the remainder of the thesis: the study and comparison of the differential situation of women and men and of mothers and non-mothers on the labour markets of the EU-15 countries as well as of the role of public policies with respect to the employment penalties faced by women, particularly in the presence of young children. In our analysis, employment penalties are understood in three ways: (i) the difference in full-time equivalent employment rates between mothers and non-mothers, (ii) the wage penalty associated with motherhood, and (iii) the wage gap between part-time and full-time workers, considering men and women separately. Besides from a gender point of view, employment outcomes and public policies are thus assessed comparatively for mothers and non-mothers. Because women choose to take part in paid employment, fertility rates will depend on their possibilities to combine employment and motherhood. As a result, motherhood-induced employment penalties and the role of public policies to tackle them should be given priority attention, not just by scholars, but also by politicians and policy-makers. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
380

Essays on monetary policy, saving and investment

Lenza, Michèle 04 June 2007 (has links)
This thesis addresses three relevant macroeconomic issues: (i) why<p>Central Banks behave so cautiously compared to optimal theoretical<p>benchmarks, (ii) do monetary variables add information about<p>future Euro Area inflation to a large amount of non monetary<p>variables and (iii) why national saving and investment are so<p>correlated in OECD countries in spite of the high degree of<p>integration of international financial markets.<p><p>The process of innovation in the elaboration of economic theory<p>and statistical analysis of the data witnessed in the last thirty<p>years has greatly enriched the toolbox available to<p>macroeconomists. Two aspects of such a process are particularly<p>noteworthy for addressing the issues in this thesis: the<p>development of macroeconomic dynamic stochastic general<p>equilibrium models (see Woodford, 1999b for an historical<p>perspective) and of techniques that enable to handle large data<p>sets in a parsimonious and flexible manner (see Reichlin, 2002 for<p>an historical perspective).<p><p>Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGE) provide the<p>appropriate tools to evaluate the macroeconomic consequences of<p>policy changes. These models, by exploiting modern intertemporal<p>general equilibrium theory, aggregate the optimal responses of<p>individual as consumers and firms in order to identify the<p>aggregate shocks and their propagation mechanisms by the<p>restrictions imposed by optimizing individual behavior. Such a<p>modelling strategy, uncovering economic relationships invariant to<p>a change in policy regimes, provides a framework to analyze the<p>effects of economic policy that is robust to the Lucas'critique<p>(see Lucas, 1976). The early attempts of explaining business<p>cycles by starting from microeconomic behavior suggested that<p>economic policy should play no role since business cycles<p>reflected the efficient response of economic agents to exogenous<p>sources of fluctuations (see the seminal paper by Kydland and Prescott, 1982}<p>and, more recently, King and Rebelo, 1999). This view was challenged by<p>several empirical studies showing that the adjustment mechanisms<p>of variables at the heart of macroeconomic propagation mechanisms<p>like prices and wages are not well represented by efficient<p>responses of individual agents in frictionless economies (see, for<p>example, Kashyap, 1999; Cecchetti, 1986; Bils and Klenow, 2004 and Dhyne et al. 2004). Hence, macroeconomic models currently incorporate<p>some sources of nominal and real rigidities in the DSGE framework<p>and allow the study of the optimal policy reactions to inefficient<p>fluctuations stemming from frictions in macroeconomic propagation<p>mechanisms.<p><p>Against this background, the first chapter of this thesis sets up<p>a DSGE model in order to analyze optimal monetary policy in an<p>economy with sectorial heterogeneity in the frequency of price<p>adjustments. Price setters are divided in two groups: those<p>subject to Calvo type nominal rigidities and those able to change<p>their prices at each period. Sectorial heterogeneity in price<p>setting behavior is a relevant feature in real economies (see, for<p>example, Bils and Klenow, 2004 for the US and Dhyne, 2004 for the Euro<p>Area). Hence, neglecting it would lead to an understatement of the<p>heterogeneity in the transmission mechanisms of economy wide<p>shocks. In this framework, Aoki (2001) shows that a Central<p>Bank maximizing social welfare should stabilize only inflation in<p>the sector where prices are sticky (hereafter, core inflation).<p>Since complete stabilization is the only true objective of the<p>policymaker in Aoki (2001) and, hence, is not only desirable<p>but also implementable, the equilibrium real interest rate in the<p>economy is equal to the natural interest rate irrespective of the<p>degree of heterogeneity that is assumed. This would lead to<p>conclude that stabilizing core inflation rather than overall<p>inflation does not imply any observable difference in the<p>aggressiveness of the policy behavior. While maintaining the<p>assumption of sectorial heterogeneity in the frequency of price<p>adjustments, this chapter adds non negligible transaction<p>frictions to the model economy in Aoki (2001). As a<p>consequence, the social welfare maximizing monetary policymaker<p>faces a trade-off among the stabilization of core inflation,<p>economy wide output gap and the nominal interest rate. This<p>feature reflects the trade-offs between conflicting objectives<p>faced by actual policymakers. The chapter shows that the existence<p>of this trade-off makes the aggressiveness of the monetary policy<p>reaction dependent on the degree of sectorial heterogeneity in the<p>economy. In particular, in presence of sectorial heterogeneity in<p>price adjustments, Central Banks are much more likely to behave<p>less aggressively than in an economy where all firms face nominal<p>rigidities. Hence, the chapter concludes that the excessive<p>caution in the conduct of monetary policy shown by actual Central<p>Banks (see, for example, Rudebusch and Svennsson, 1999 and Sack, 2000) might not<p>represent a sub-optimal behavior but, on the contrary, might be<p>the optimal monetary policy response in presence of a relevant<p>sectorial dispersion in the frequency of price adjustments.<p><p>DSGE models are proving useful also in empirical applications and<p>recently efforts have been made to incorporate large amounts of<p>information in their framework (see Boivin and Giannoni, 2006). However, the<p>typical DSGE model still relies on a handful of variables. Partly,<p>this reflects the fact that, increasing the number of variables,<p>the specification of a plausible set of theoretical restrictions<p>identifying aggregate shocks and their propagation mechanisms<p>becomes cumbersome. On the other hand, several questions in<p>macroeconomics require the study of a large amount of variables.<p>Among others, two examples related to the second and third chapter<p>of this thesis can help to understand why. First, policymakers<p>analyze a large quantity of information to assess the current and<p>future stance of their economies and, because of model<p>uncertainty, do not rely on a single modelling framework.<p>Consequently, macroeconomic policy can be better understood if the<p>econometrician relies on large set of variables without imposing<p>too much a priori structure on the relationships governing their<p>evolution (see, for example, Giannone et al. 2004 and Bernanke et al. 2005).<p>Moreover, the process of integration of good and financial markets<p>implies that the source of aggregate shocks is increasingly global<p>requiring, in turn, the study of their propagation through cross<p>country links (see, among others, Forni and Reichlin, 2001 and Kose et al. 2003). A<p>priori, country specific behavior cannot be ruled out and many of<p>the homogeneity assumptions that are typically embodied in open<p>macroeconomic models for keeping them tractable are rejected by<p>the data. Summing up, in order to deal with such issues, we need<p>modelling frameworks able to treat a large amount of variables in<p>a flexible manner, i.e. without pre-committing on too many<p>a-priori restrictions more likely to be rejected by the data. The<p>large extent of comovement among wide cross sections of economic<p>variables suggests the existence of few common sources of<p>fluctuations (Forni et al. 2000 and Stock and Watson, 2002) around which<p>individual variables may display specific features: a shock to the<p>world price of oil, for example, hits oil exporters and importers<p>with different sign and intensity or global technological advances<p>can affect some countries before others (Giannone and Reichlin, 2004). Factor<p>models mainly rely on the identification assumption that the<p>dynamics of each variable can be decomposed into two orthogonal<p>components - common and idiosyncratic - and provide a parsimonious<p>tool allowing the analysis of the aggregate shocks and their<p>propagation mechanisms in a large cross section of variables. In<p>fact, while the idiosyncratic components are poorly<p>cross-sectionally correlated, driven by shocks specific of a<p>variable or a group of variables or measurement error, the common<p>components capture the bulk of cross-sectional correlation, and<p>are driven by few shocks that affect, through variable specific<p>factor loadings, all items in a panel of economic time series.<p>Focusing on the latter components allows useful insights on the<p>identity and propagation mechanisms of aggregate shocks underlying<p>a large amount of variables. The second and third chapter of this<p>thesis exploit this idea.<p><p>The second chapter deals with the issue whether monetary variables<p>help to forecast inflation in the Euro Area harmonized index of<p>consumer prices (HICP). Policymakers form their views on the<p>economic outlook by drawing on large amounts of potentially<p>relevant information. Indeed, the monetary policy strategy of the<p>European Central Bank acknowledges that many variables and models<p>can be informative about future Euro Area inflation. A peculiarity<p>of such strategy is that it assigns to monetary information the<p>role of providing insights for the medium - long term evolution of<p>prices while a wide range of alternative non monetary variables<p>and models are employed in order to form a view on the short term<p>and to cross-check the inference based on monetary information.<p>However, both the academic literature and the practice of the<p>leading Central Banks other than the ECB do not assign such a<p>special role to monetary variables (see Gali et al. 2004 and<p>references therein). Hence, the debate whether money really<p>provides relevant information for the inflation outlook in the<p>Euro Area is still open. Specifically, this chapter addresses the<p>issue whether money provides useful information about future<p>inflation beyond what contained in a large amount of non monetary<p>variables. It shows that a few aggregates of the data explain a<p>large amount of the fluctuations in a large cross section of Euro<p>Area variables. This allows to postulate a factor structure for<p>the large panel of variables at hand and to aggregate it in few<p>synthetic indexes that still retain the salient features of the<p>large cross section. The database is split in two big blocks of<p>variables: non monetary (baseline) and monetary variables. Results<p>show that baseline variables provide a satisfactory predictive<p>performance improving on the best univariate benchmarks in the<p>period 1997 - 2005 at all horizons between 6 and 36 months.<p>Remarkably, monetary variables provide a sensible improvement on<p>the performance of baseline variables at horizons above two years.<p>However, the analysis of the evolution of the forecast errors<p>reveals that most of the gains obtained relative to univariate<p>benchmarks of non forecastability with baseline and monetary<p>variables are realized in the first part of the prediction sample<p>up to the end of 2002, which casts doubts on the current<p>forecastability of inflation in the Euro Area.<p><p>The third chapter is based on a joint work with Domenico Giannone<p>and gives empirical foundation to the general equilibrium<p>explanation of the Feldstein - Horioka puzzle. Feldstein and Horioka (1980) found<p>that domestic saving and investment in OECD countries strongly<p>comove, contrary to the idea that high capital mobility should<p>allow countries to seek the highest returns in global financial<p>markets and, hence, imply a correlation among national saving and<p>investment closer to zero than one. Moreover, capital mobility has<p>strongly increased since the publication of Feldstein - Horioka's<p>seminal paper while the association between saving and investment<p>does not seem to comparably decrease. Through general equilibrium<p>mechanisms, the presence of global shocks might rationalize the<p>correlation between saving and investment. In fact, global shocks,<p>affecting all countries, tend to create imbalance on global<p>capital markets causing offsetting movements in the global<p>interest rate and can generate the observed correlation across<p>national saving and investment rates. However, previous empirical<p>studies (see Ventura, 2003) that have controlled for the effects<p>of global shocks in the context of saving-investment regressions<p>failed to give empirical foundation to this explanation. We show<p>that previous studies have neglected the fact that global shocks<p>may propagate heterogeneously across countries, failing to<p>properly isolate components of saving and investment that are<p>affected by non pervasive shocks. We propose a novel factor<p>augmented panel regression methodology that allows to isolate<p>idiosyncratic sources of fluctuations under the assumption of<p>heterogenous transmission mechanisms of global shocks. Remarkably,<p>by applying our methodology, the association between domestic<p>saving and investment decreases considerably over time,<p>consistently with the observed increase in international capital<p>mobility. In particular, in the last 25 years the correlation<p>between saving and investment disappears.<p> / Doctorat en sciences économiques, Orientation économie / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

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