Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:35:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Adriano Cesar Braz Caldeira.pdf: 1112546 bytes, checksum: bd0f5ebb4908b8376a971dd669d3d887 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-06-24 / The current study aims to analyze the performance of the Brazilian jurisdiction considering the needs of the capital system and the political system, observing the behavior and the role to be played by the Judiciary and the legal thought, especially the procedure in the post-1988 s Federal Constitution period. At first, it was decided to examine, in the first chapter, the role of this Constitution in the process of continuity of the ideals for decades already established by the capital and, later, the political system. Therefore, it was understood well by reviewing, without intending to innovate in this regard, the main reasons that led to each of the Constitutions taken in our country, checking behavior of institutions, in particular the jurisdiction in times of crisis State, considering his parallel action with capital system and political. With this, it was possible to observe that the ideal of democracy, the ideal of the effectiveness of fundamental rights and guarantees is utopian, in other words, impossible while maintaining the conditions of domination established throughout contemporary history. The second chapter is intended to analyze the reasons that lead to loss of boundaries between institutions, both among the representative institutions as between them and the jurisdictional institution, so as to interfere in the outcome of the adjudication, constituting the phenomenon usually called by the doctrine of politicization of jurisdictional actions. As regards the third chapter, the goal pursued is the analysis of traditional scopes of jurisdiction, consolidated with special emphasis throughout the twentieth century, turning the process into a mere usefulness instrument of the substantive law completely abandoning their original purpose, in other words, to reestablish the equalities left behind by the substantive law and the social core itself against the political and economic ideals adopted by our society. Search is also in this chapter, reset the paths to jurisdictional actions directed to the expectations of society, not individually, which implies a new educational, social and judicial review, which goes beyond the resolution of the dispute, consider so as to the real social needs bordering that conflict, allowing the individual to understand the social context in which inserted in. Finally, the fourth and final chapter is intended to study the routes to be followed in order to establish full democracy, which result from a deliberative process, not an imposition. A process whose essence are rooted features like inclusion, equality and freedom, in other words, a democracy that is born from below, directly from the action of the mass that makes up society, organized, able to build a right of society and not of the institutions. / O presente estudo pretende analisar a atuação da jurisdição brasileira diante das necessidades do sistema de capital e do sistema político, observando o comportamento e o papel a ser desempenhado tanto pelo Poder Judiciário quanto pelo pensamento jurídico, especialmente o processual, no período pós-Constituição Federal de 1988, considerando ter sido esse o divisor de águas, ao menos no aspecto formal, em relação ao processo de democratização da sociedade brasileira. De início, optou-se por analisar, no primeiro capítulo, a função da Constituição no processo de continuísmo dos ideais já há décadas estabelecidos pelo sistema de capital e, mais tarde, pelo sistema político. Para tanto, entendeu-se por bem revisar, sem pretensão de inovar quanto a esse aspecto, as principais razões que conduziram a cada uma das Constituições havidas no país, verificando o comportamento das instituições, em especial da jurisdição, nos momentos de crise do Estado, considerando a sua atuação paralela com o sistema de capital e com o sistema político. Com isso, foi possível analisar se o ideal de democracia, de efetividade de direitos e garantias fundamentais, é utópico, ou seja, irrealizável enquanto mantidas as condições de dominação estabelecidas ao longo da história contemporânea. O segundo capítulo é destinado à análise das razões que levam à perda dos limites entre as instituições, tanto entre as representativas quanto entre estas e a jurisdicional, de modo a interferir no resultado da prestação jurisdicional, constituindo fenômeno que a doutrina convencionou denominar de politização da atuação jurisdicional. O terceiro capítulo, por sua vez, visa à análise dos escopos tradicionais da jurisdição, constituídos com especial ênfase ao longo do século XX, transformando o processo em mero instrumento de serventia do direito material, abandonando por completo a sua destinação de fantasia ao restabelecimento das igualdades deixadas de lado por tal direito, bem como pelo próprio núcleo social, face aos ideais políticos e econômicos adotados pela sociedade. Busca-se, ainda, nesse capítulo, redefinir os caminhos para uma atuação jurisdicional voltada aos anseios da sociedade, desindividualizada, organizada e, sobretudo, preparada para a deliberação, o que implica novo processo educacional, social e jurisdicional, que vá além da resolução da lide, passando a considerar as reais necessidades sociais que margeiam aquele conflito, permitindo ao indivíduo entender o contexto social em que está inserido. Por fim, o quarto e último capítulo é destinado ao estudo dos caminhos a serem percorridos para que se estabeleça uma democracia total, que decorra de um processo deliberativo, não de imposição, mas de inclusão de igualdades e de liberdades, uma democracia que parta de baixo, da direta atuação do sujeito social, organizado, capaz de construir um Direito da sociedade, e não das instituições.

Si la démocratie désigne le régime politique où l’appareil institutionnel d’Etat traduit la volonté du peuple, la démocratisation caractériserait ainsi tout processus conduisant un système politique autoritaire à plus d’ouverture et de participation. Mais cette démocratisation n’est pas que le résultat de dynamiques internes, elle est également, et de plus en plus le fait d’acteurs externes, en particulier des organisations internationales. Dès la fin de la guerre froide en effet, convaincues que la démocratie constitue le régime politique qui offre les meilleures garanties de respect des droits de l’homme, des organisations internationales, universelles comme régionales, l’Organisation des Nations Unies en tête, se sont résolument investies aussi bien d’un point de vue normatif qu’opérationnel dans sa promotion, au point parfois de remettre en cause le principe pourtant bien établi de souveraineté des Etats. La promotion de la démocratie par les organisations internationales obéit à un régime juridique dont l’ambivalence initiale a progressivement laissé place à une certaine cohérence. Ce régime met à la charge des Etats des droits individuels et collectifs dont le respect est contrôlé, voire parfois sanctionné par des mécanismes politiques et juridictionnels, mais dont l’efficacité apparait toutefois incertaine, rappelant ainsi la complexité et la sensibilité de la question démocratique en droit international. / If democracy refers to the political regime in which the state institutional apparatus reflects the will of the people, democratization would thus characterize any process leading to a more open and participatory authoritarian political system. But this democratization is not only the result of internal dynamics, it is also, and increasingly, the result of external actors, in particular international organizations.Since the end of the Cold War, convinced that democracy is the political system that offers the best guarantees of respect for human rights, international organizations, both universal and regional, with the United Nations in the lead, have resolutely invested themselves both from a normative and operational point of view in democracy promotion, sometimes to the point of questioning the well-established principle of State sovereignty. The promotion of democracy by international organizations is governed by a legal regime whose initial ambivalence has gradually given way to a certain coherence. This regime places individual and collective rights on States, the respect for which is monitored or even sanctioned by political and jurisdictional mechanisms, but whose effectiveness appears uncertain, thus recalling the complexity and sensitivity of the democratic question in international law.

The aim of the diploma thesis is to apprise the reader with a basic life insur- ance projection method which is used for the valuation of insurance company's liabilities. The basic projection method can be extremely time consuming in practise so another two variance reduction methods and their combination are presented to obtain either more precise liabilities estimation, or to reduce the time required for the projection. The presented methods are antithetic variate method, control-variate method and their combination later called integrated control-variate method. The final outcome of the thesis is simulation experi- ment which evaluates the liabilities of the group of policies and comparison of the presented variance reduction methods. 1

Persons who seek international protection in the European Union are entitled to number of rights contained in the EU law, international law and national law. Some applicants for international protection are entitled to additional rights and guarantees due to their weakened position. This thesis analyses the legal position of vulnerable applicants for international protection (or more precisely applicants with special needs). The position of minor applicants is dealt with in more detail. The thesis further deals with the legislation of the Common European Asylum System, attention is also paid to the European Court of Human Right's case- law, to the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child and to other relevant documents. All applicants for international protection can be seen as vulnerable. In the view of the European Court of Human Rights applicant for international protection is "as such, a member of a particularly underprivileged and vulnerable population group in need of special protection". The EU law does not explicitly describe applicants as vulnerable, but it entitles them to a certain standard of rights by which it reflects their difficult position. Furthermore, the Reception Conditions Directive and Asylum Procedures Directive define applicants with special needs (more precisely applicants...

The aim of the diploma thesis is to apprise the reader with a basic life insur- ance projection method which is used for the valuation of insurance company's liabilities. The basic projection method can be extremely time consuming in practise so another two variance reduction methods and their combination are presented to obtain either more precise liabilities estimation, or to reduce the time required for the projection. The presented methods are antithetic variate method, control-variate method and their combination later called integrated control-variate method. The final outcome of the thesis is simulation experi- ment which evaluates the liabilities of the group of policies and comparison of the presented variance reduction methods. 1

Le report des garanties accessoires sur l’obligation de restitution du contrat principal anéanti est une règle du code civil dans sa version issue de l’ordonnance n° 2016-131 du 10 février 2016 portant réforme du droit des contrats, du régime général et de la preuve des obligations. Précisément, la règle est formulée par l’article 1352-9 du code civil : « Les sûretés constituées pour le paiement de l'obligation sont reportées de plein droit sur l'obligation de restituer sans toutefois que la caution soit privée du bénéfice du terme ». Il s’agit de la codification d’une jurisprudence rendue en d’abord en matière de cautionnement, ensuite étendue à l’hypothèque, enfin, par généralisation, à l’ensemble des sûretés, y compris à la solidarité. La portée d’une telle règle est donc générale en droit français. En droit uniforme des affaires issu de l’OHADA, l’Acte uniforme portant organisation des sûretés révisé n’a pas prévu une telle règle. Par contre, le récent projet de texte d’Acte uniforme portant droit général des obligations dans l’espace OHADA prévoit, en s’inspirant de la solution retenue en droit français, d’adopter la règle sous la forme d’une « extension » des garanties accessoires sur l’obligation de restitution du contrat principal anéanti. En effet, l’article 210 alinéa 1 du projet de texte uniforme précité énonce : « Les garanties stipulées pour le paiement de l’obligation primitive sont étendues à l’obligation de restitution ». Les formulations des deux textes, les articles 1352-9 du code civil et 210 alinéa 1 du projet de texte uniforme, sont différentes mais la logique et la politique législative de deux systèmes juridiques convergent. La thèse défendue est que le terme « report » employé par le code civil en son article 1352-9 dans sa version issue de l’ordonnance n° 2016-131 du 10 février 2016 n’existe pas en tant que tel. Le report est en réalité une double substitution ; il y a une substitution d’abord, dans le rapport principal d’obligation et une substitution consécutive dans le rapport de cautionnement. La première substitution qui a lieu concerne le rapport entre le débiteur principal et le créancier. L’anéantissement des effets du contrat principal produit une substitution à l’obligation initiale de source conventionnelle d’une obligation légale fondé sur le quasi-contrat de paiement de l’indu. Cette première substitution conduit à la disparition, par le jeu ou la règle de l’accessoire, de l’obligation initiale de la caution et de son remplacement par une obligation légale nouvelle. Il y a donc une substitution dans le rapport entre le créancier et la caution due à la première substitution. L’obligation légale nouvelle de la caution reprend certains éléments de l’obligation conventionnelle ancienne de celle-ci, tout en étant distincte par d’autres éléments. La base même de l’obligation nouvelle de la caution reste le cautionnement que la caution avait souscrit préalablement. / The postponement of ancillary guarantees on the obligation to return the terminated main contract is a rule of the Civil Code in the version resulting from Order No. 2016-131 of 10 February 2016 related to the reform of contract law of the general regime and the proof of obligations. Specifically, the rule is formulated by article 1352-9 of the Civil Code: "Securities created for the payment of the obligation are automatically transferred under the obligation to return without however depriving the surety of the benefit of the term". It is about the codification of case law handed down first in the field of suretyship, then extended to mortgages, and finally, by generalization, to all securities, including solidarity. The scope of such a rule is therefore general in French law. In the uniform business law of OHADA, the revised Uniform Act on the Organization of Security Interests has not provided for such a rule. On the other hand, the recent draft text of the Uniform Act on the general law of obligations in the OHADA area provides, under the inspiration of the solution adopted in French law, for the adoption of the rule in the form of an "extension" of the accessory guarantees on the obligation to return the terminated main contract. Indeed, Article 210 paragraph 1 of the aforementioned draft uniform text states: "The guarantees stipulated for the payment of the original obligation are extended to the obligation of restitution". The wording of the two texts, Articles 1352-9 of the Civil Code and 210 paragraph 1 of the draft uniform text, are different, but the logic and legislative policy of both legal systems converge. This thesis focuses on the determination of the legal nature of the deferral (or extension) mechanism and its regime. It defends the view that postponement (or extension) is not a technical concept. The deferral is actually a double substitution: a substitution in the main report and a substitution in the bond report.

Renewable cannibalization refers to the phenomenon where the increasing penetration of zeromarginal cost renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, leads to a decline in their market value. By extension, this threatens to reduce investment incentives in wind and solar. Based on theory of supply and demand, the extent to which cannibalization is experienced should increase as the penetration of wind and solar increases. Since electricity prices, and therefore cannibalization, are set with considerations to domestic system dynamics, regulations and policies, cannibalization research are typically limited to investigate it for a specific country or region. For this thesis, Spain has been chosen for the case study. Coupling an already high penetration of both wind and solar with ambitious goals for wind and solar capacity expansion, Spain constitutes an interesting case study for cannibalization research. The investigation is centered around two factors, the market capturing price (MCP) and the cannibalization factor (CF). The MCP is the generation weighted electricity price and measures absolute cannibalization, while the CF is the ratio between the MCP and the average electricity price, thus constituting a relative cannibalization measurement. These will be calculated using hourly day-ahead wind and solar forecasts, and day-ahead electricity prices. A time series econometric study is then conducted to quantify the cannibalization effect together with potentially influential factor that, in theory, should be the driving factors behind the cannibalization phenomenon. To investigate dynamic affects across these factors, temporal regressions are conducted. In these regressions, data is isolated in different groups based on their characteristics. Furthermore, carbon pricing and granular guarantees of origin (GOs) are investigated and assessed based on their potential for alleviating the effect of cannibalization.  The study finds that both wind and solar cannibalizes their own market values, and that cannibalization occurs across technologies. The results indicate that there is a negative marginal relation between wind and solar infeed, suggesting the presence of both self-cannibalization and cross-cannibalization effects on their respective MCPs. The same can be said for the CF of solar, for which there is a negative marginal effect with the infeed of wind and solar. These statements hold true across all ranges of wind and solar penetration investigated in the temporal regression analysis. Moreover, the negative relations increase as the penetration range increases, indicating that cannibalization effects are stronger at high renewable penetration. For wind power, this is not entirely the case. Although the regression results yielded a low coefficient of determination (R2), indicating weak explanatory power in the regressions, it is possible to interpret whether the marginal effects are positive or negative. The temporal regression results indicate that there is a positive marginal effect between solar infeed and the CF of wind when the penetration of solar is lower than 10%. Thus, considering the ambitious wind and solar capacity targets of Spain, the economic viability of wind and solar could be threatened. Furthermore, the results from the study indicate that although carbon pricing helps increasing the MCP for both wind and solar by adding an increment to the day-ahead price, it reduces the CF. Furthermore, carbon pricing is a limited tool for alleviating cannibalization, considering that it requires. Thus, once the system is fully decarbonized, carbon pricing is rendered obsolete. On the contrary, the implementation of granular (hourly) GOs provide extra revenue in addition to the revenue from sold electricity. Furthermore, its immediate effect is that it increases the revenue while not impacting the price of electricity. Thus, it helps counteracting both absolute and relative cannibalization effects. / Förnybar kannibalisering hänvisar till fenomenet där en ökande markandspenetration av förnybar energi med noll marginalkostnad, så som vind- och solkraft, leder till en minskning i deras marknadsvärde. Detta hotar i förlängningen att minska incitament för fortsatta investeringar inom vind- och solkraft. Baserat på teorier om utbud och efterfrågan bör graden av kannibalisering öka i takt med att marknadspenetrationen av vind- och solenergi ökar inom ett givet system. Eftersom elpriser, och därmed graden av kannibalisering, beror på nationella dynamiker inom kraftsystemet, föreskrifter och riktlinjer, utförs ofta studier om kannibaliserade effekter inom förnybar energi från fallstudier inom ett land eller en regions system. I denna avhandling har Spanien valt som fallstudie. Med en redan hög grad av förnybart inom elsystemet, samt ambitiösa mål för fortsatt utbyggnad av vind- och solkraft, utgör Spanien en intressant fallstudie för forskning om förnybar kannibalisering.  Undersökningen utgår från två faktorer; det produktionsviktade elpriset (MCP) och kannibaliseringsfaktorn (CF). MCP utgör en absolut faktor och är det produktionsviktade elpriset för en viss teknologi, medan CF utgör ett mått på relativ kannibalisering och beräknas genom att dividera MCP med det genomsnittliga elpriset. Dessa två faktorer beräknas genom att använda timvisa prognoser från dagen-före marknaden för produktion av vind- och solkraft, samt priser från spotmarknaden. Därefter utförs en ekonometrisk studie baserad på tidseriedata för att kvantifiera de kannibaliserande effekterna med avseende på utomstående faktorer som bör kunna ses som drivkrafter bakom kannibaliseringsfenomenet. Dessutom undersöks och bedöms koldioxidprissättning och timvisa ursprungsgarantier baserat på deras förmåga att lindra effekterna av kannibalisering i Spanien. Studien visar att både vind- och solenergi kannibaliserar sina egna marknadsvärden, samt att kannibalisering sker mellan kraftslag. Resultaten indikerar att det finns en negativ marginaleffekt mellan produktion av vind- och solel, vilket tyder på förekomsten av både självkannibaliserande och korskannibaliserande effekter på deras respektive produktionsviktade elpriser (MCP). Samma kan sägas gälla för solkraftens kannibaliseringsfaktor (CF), där det finns en tydlig negativ marginaleffekt gentemot produktion av vind- och solel. Dessa påståenden stämmer över alla intervall av vind- och solpenetration som undersökts i den temporala regressionsanalysen. Dessutom ökar de negativa relationerna desto högre intervall som avses, vilket tyder på att kannibaliseringseffekten är starkare vid hög penetration av förnybar energi. För vindkraft stämmer inte detta helt. Även om regressionsresultaten gav en låg determinationskoefficient (R2), vilket indikerar svag förklarande kraft i regressionerna, är det möjligt att tolka om marginaleffekterna är positiva eller negativa. De temporala regressionsresultaten visar att det finns en positiv marginal- effekt mellan produktionen av solel och CF för vindkraft när solkraft utgör mindre än 10% av den dagliga produktionen. Med tanke på Spaniens ambitiösa mål för vind- och solkapacitet kan den ekonomiska livskraften för vind- och solenergi hotas. Vidare visar resultaten från studien att även om koldioxidprissättning hjälper till att öka MCP för både vind- och solenergi genom att skapa ett tillägg på spotmarknadspriset, minskar det CF. Dessutom är koldioxidprissättning ett begränsat verktyg för att lindra kannibalisering, med tanke på att det kräver. När systemet är fullständigt avkarboniserat blir koldioxidprissättning överflödig. Å andra sidan ger implementeringen av granulära (timvisa) ursprungsgarantier (GOs) extra intäkter utöver intäkterna från såld el. Dessutom ökar det omedelbart intäkterna utan att påverka elpriset. På så sätt hjälper det till att motverka både absoluta och relativa kannibaliseringseffekter.

Bank demand guarantees have become an established part of international trade. Demand guarantees, standby letters of credit and commercial letters of credit are all treated as autonomous contracts whose operation will not be interfered with by courts on grounds immaterial to the guarantee or credit itself. The idea in the documentary credit transaction/demand guarantee transaction is that if the documents (where applicable) presented are in line with the terms of the credit/guarantee the bank has to pay, and if the documents do not correspond to the requirements, the bank must not pay. However, over the years a limited number of exceptions to the autonomy principle of demand guarantees and letters of credit have come to be acknowledged and accepted in practice. In certain circumstances, the autonomy of demand guarantees and letters of credit may be ignored by the bank and regard may be had to the terms and conditions of the underlying contract. The main exceptions concern fraud and illegality in the underlying contract. In this thesis a great deal of consideration has been given to fraud and illegality as possible grounds on which payment under demand guarantees and letters of credit have been attacked (and sometimes even prevented) in the English, American and South African courts. It will be shown that the prospect of success depends on the law applicable to the demand guarantee and letter of credit, and the approach a court in a specific jurisdiction takes. At present, South Africa has limited literature on demand guarantees, and the case law regarding the grounds upon which payment under a demand guarantee might be prevented is scarce and often non-existent. In South Africa one finds guidance by looking at similar South African case law dealing with commercial and standby letters of credit and applying these similar principles to demand guarantees. The courts, furthermore, find guidance by looking at how other jurisdictions, in particular the English courts, deal with these issues. Therefore, how the South African courts currently deal/should be dealing/probably will be dealing with the unfair and fraudulent calling of demand guarantees/letters of credit is discussed in this thesis. / Jurisprudence / LL.D

Bank demand guarantees have become an established part of international trade. Demand guarantees, standby letters of credit and commercial letters of credit are all treated as autonomous contracts whose operation will not be interfered with by courts on grounds immaterial to the guarantee or credit itself. The idea in the documentary credit transaction/demand guarantee transaction is that if the documents (where applicable) presented are in line with the terms of the credit/guarantee the bank has to pay, and if the documents do not correspond to the requirements, the bank must not pay. However, over the years a limited number of exceptions to the autonomy principle of demand guarantees and letters of credit have come to be acknowledged and accepted in practice. In certain circumstances, the autonomy of demand guarantees and letters of credit may be ignored by the bank and regard may be had to the terms and conditions of the underlying contract. The main exceptions concern fraud and illegality in the underlying contract. In this thesis a great deal of consideration has been given to fraud and illegality as possible grounds on which payment under demand guarantees and letters of credit have been attacked (and sometimes even prevented) in the English, American and South African courts. It will be shown that the prospect of success depends on the law applicable to the demand guarantee and letter of credit, and the approach a court in a specific jurisdiction takes. At present, South Africa has limited literature on demand guarantees, and the case law regarding the grounds upon which payment under a demand guarantee might be prevented is scarce and often non-existent. In South Africa one finds guidance by looking at similar South African case law dealing with commercial and standby letters of credit and applying these similar principles to demand guarantees. The courts, furthermore, find guidance by looking at how other jurisdictions, in particular the English courts, deal with these issues. Therefore, how the South African courts currently deal/should be dealing/probably will be dealing with the unfair and fraudulent calling of demand guarantees/letters of credit is discussed in this thesis. / Jurisprudence / LL.D

本研究探討長期投資人之最適資產配置問題，並著重於通貨膨脹風險之分析。第一部份討論確定提撥退休金制度下，機構投資人或高所得自然人如何擬定投資策略規避通貨膨脹風險，達到極大化期末財富效用期望值。此研究擴展Battocchio與Menoncin (2004)所建構資產模型，不僅探討市場風險，亦考量通貨膨脹不確定性與基金費用誘因、下方風險保護兩機制，研究對資產配置行為之影響，並依動態規劃方法求得投資策略公式解。第二部份則強調下方風險之重要性，檢視在最低保證收益下，長期投資人跨期資產配置之財富管理議題，並回顧Deelstra et al.(2003)之模型架構，依平賭方法求得投資策略公式解，研究結果顯示基金投資策略可表示為最適CRRA(γ,T)型態共同基金與最低收益避險之組合。另一方面，如何估計通貨膨脹風險亦為本文強調之重點。Campbell和Viceira (2001)首次納入通貨膨脹風險並探討跨期投資議題，結論市場缺乏通貨膨脹連動投資標的時，投資人將減碼長期債持有比例。Brennan和Xia (2002)假設通貨膨脹率服從Ornstein-Uhlenbeck過程，結論投資人之避險需求隨持有債券到期日與投資期限改變。但以上結論未將通貨膨脹學習機制納入模型，因此，在第三部份提出依學習機制修正之投資策略可顯著增加財富效用，並分析在不同參數設定下，學習機制對於期末財富效用之影響。 / In this study, we study three essays of asset allocation problem for long term investors, which means that in this discourse we emphasis the importance of inflation risk. In the first topic, we derive the dynamic optimal investment strategy of the defined contribution pension schemes which include two mechanisms of partial floor protection and incentive fees and their benchmarks. We find investors should hold high proportion of stock index fund to hedge the inflation risk; moreover, the ratio of incentive fees to the setting of benchmark will change the optimal investment trend of underlying assets. In the second topic, we introduce the optimal investment portfolio with minimum guarantees and show that the fund manager should adjust the optimal weights of underlying assets with the ratio of the guarantee fund's value to the value of fund. Finally, this work focuses on how to precisely predict the dynamics of inflation rate. We apply learning method to adjust the prediction of inflation process and we use numerical analysis to study the effect of learning mechanism under different parameter setting.