As technology and capital markets complexity increases, so does the amount of accounting information disclosed by companies in their financial reports. Nowadays, we reached an impasse, where it is questionable if more information will in fact reduce information asymmetry. Previous authors strongly criticize the length of financial statements and annual reports, arguing that they should communicate more rather than just be voluminous as the current volume of information can be counterproductive to the average individual to acquire, retain and process all available information. Based on evidence of previous accounting literature on presentation format and the psychology theories of attribution theory and cognitive load theory, we hypothesize that, by manipulating accounting information using a more general accessible format such as the narrative one, individual investors are able to better understand accounting information and, thereafter, make a more effective use of it versus the concurrent non-fundamental information available in a standard investment decision making setting. To achieve our research goal, we use a mixed method research strategy with an Exploratory Sequential Design: the qualitative method act as a preparation for the quantitative one. Concerning the qualitative method, we interview- using the Q methodology approach - 31 subjects, being 13 analysts/professional investors and 18 individual investors. Our objective in this phase is to identify patterns in the usage of accounting/non-accounting information by analysts/professional investors, in contrast to individual investors\' information choices. By doing so, we can use the obtained results to base our experimental information choices regarding (a) which accounting information pieces were most preferable to professional investors and (b) the information presentation sequence to be followed in the experimental setting. Next, we develop a 2 X 2 between-subjects experimental design in which we manipulate the presentation format of a hypothetical company between the traditional \'tabular and footnotes\' design versus the narrative content-only design. We also vary the financial performance between \'good\' and \'bad\' to check if the variables of interest would impact (a) investment propensity on the company\'s shares and (b) the amount of information retrieved from memory. As our main results, we find that the narrative format per se does not impact investment propensity and that the alternative presentation format is beneficial for participants with less than 5 years of investment experience in capital markets in the poor financial performance condition, adjusting their investment propensity to the same investment propensity level of more experienced investors. / A medida que a complexidade da tecnologia e dos mercados de capitais aumentou, o montante da informação contábil divulgada pelas empresas em seus relatórios financeiros também aumentou. Atualmente, chegamos a um impasse, onde é questionável se mais informações reduzem a assimetria de informações. Autores anteriores criticam fortemente o tamanho das demonstrações financeiras e relatórios anuais, argumentando que eles devem comunicar mais ao invés de apenas serem volumosos, já que o atual volume de informações pode ser contraproducente para o indivíduo médio adquirir, reter e processar todas as informações disponíveis. Com base na evidência de literatura contábil anterior sobre o formato de apresentação e as teorias de psicologia, teoria da atribuição e teoria da carga cognitiva, temos a hipótese de que, ao manipular informações contábeis através de um formato amplamente mais acessível, como a narrativa, os investidores individuais serão capazes de compreender melhor as informações contábeis e, posteriormente, ter um uso mais proeminente delas em relação às atuais informações não fundamentais disponíveis para uma avaliação de decisão de investimento. Para alcançar nosso objetivo de pesquisa, utiliza-se uma estratégia de pesquisa de método misto com um Desenho Sequencial Exploratório, o método qualitativo atua como uma preparação para o quantitativo. Como método qualitativo, entrevistou-se - usando a abordagem da Metodologia Q - 31 sujeitos, sendo 13 analistas/investidores profissionais e 18 investidores individuais. O objetivo nesta fase foi entender o padrão de comportamento de uso de informações contábeis/não-contábeis por analistas/investidores profissionais, em comparação com as escolhas de informações de investidores individuais. Ao fazê-lo, puderam-se usar os resultados obtidos das entrevistas para basear as escolhas de informações experimentais em relação a (a) quais peças de informação contábil eram mais preferíveis aos investidores profissionais e (b) a sequência de apresentação de informações a seguir na configuração experimental. Em seguida, desenvolve-se um design experimental 2 x 2 entre os sujeitos em que manipulamos o formato de apresentação de uma empresa hipotética entre o design tradicional \'tabular e notas explicativas\' versus o design narrativo apenas de conteúdo. Foi alterado também o desempenho financeiro entre \'bom\' e \'ruim\' para verificar se as variáveis de interesse impactam (a) propensão de investimento nas ações da empresa e (b) a quantidade de informações recuperadas da memória. Como nossos principais resultados, identificamos que o formato narrativo individualmente não afeta a propensão de investimento e que o formato de apresentação alternativa beneficiou os participantes com menos de 5 anos de experiência de investimento nos mercados de capitais na condição de má performance financeira, ajustando sua propensão ao mesmo nível de investimento de investidores mais experientes.

Bakgrund: Den 1 januari 2019 infördes IFRS 16, som är en ny standard för hur börsnoterade företag ska redovisa leasingavtal. Tidigare har företag som följer IFRS haft möjlighet att redovisa leasingavtal finansiellt eller operationellt. Fram tills nu har det varit vanligt att företag redovisar leasingavtal operationellt, inte minst inom industribranschen där leasing av maskiner och fastigheter är vanligt. I och med IFRS 16 ska alla leasingavtal istället redovisas som en nyttjanderätt i balansräkningen. Målet med IFRS 16 är att redovisningen av leasingavtal korrekt ska återspegla företagets faktiska finansiella ställning och ge en rättvisande bild av verksamheten. Det finns dock de som är kritiska till den nya standarden som menar att den är onödig och endast kommer medföra ytterligare jobb för företagen. Syfte: Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka om IFRS 16 kommer uppfylla sin funktion, och således minska informationsasymmetrin mellan företag och investerare, eller endast är ett ”onödigt ont”. Metod: Studien har genomförts med en kvantitativ ansats för att kunna generalisera effekterna inom industribranschen. För att uppfylla studiens syfte har vi med en kapitaliseringsmetod för operationell leasing undersökt hur 30 börsnoterade industriföretags finansiella rapporter och nyckeltal kan komma att påverkas av reglerna i IFRS 16. Vi har även, med hjälp av en regressionsanalys som testade sambandet mellan redovisning av operationell leasing och ett företags marknadsvärde, undersökt hur IFRS 16 kan komma att påverka investerares värdering av företag. Slutsats: De slutsatser vi kan dra är att företagens balansnyckeltal är de som kommer påverkas mest av IFRS 16, oavsett företagens storlek. Lönsamhetsnyckeltal och likviditetsnyckeltal påverkas endast signifikant för medelstora och stora börsnoterade industriföretag. Studien visar även att IFRS 16 inte kommer minska informationsasymmetrin mellan företag och investerare, då informationen kring operationell leasing redan finns tillgänglig i noterna. IFRS 16 kommer dock uppfylla sin funktion för mindre sofistikerade investerare samt minska de resurser investerare behöver lägga på att justera de finansiella rapporterna. Vi kan därmed dra slutsatsen att IFRS 16 inte är ett ”onödigt ont”. / Background: The new standard for lease accounting, IFRS 16, was introduced January 1st, 2019. Until this date, companies that comply with IFRS have had the choice to report leasing agreements as financial or operating leases. Before IFRS 16, the majority of lease agreements have been reported as operating leases, not least in the industrial sector where machines and properties are frequently used. In accordance with IFRS 16, all leasing agreements will instead be reported as a right-of-use asset in the balance sheet. The objective of IFRS 16 is that the accounting of leases should accurately reflect the company's actual financial position and give a true and fair view of the business. However, there are critics of the new standard, who consider it an “unnecessary evil”. Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether IFRS 16 will fulfill its objectives and reduce information asymmetry between companies and investors, or if it is only an "unnecessary evil". Methods: In order to generalize the effects of IFRS 16 in the industrial sector, this paper was conducted with a quantitative approach. To fulfill the purpose of the paper, we used a capitalization method for operating leases, to examine how the financial statements and ratios of 30 listed companies may be affected by IFRS 16. A regression analysis was conducted to test the correlation between operating lease accounting and a company's market value in order to observe how IFRS 16 may affect investors' business valuation. Conclusion: In conclusion, the financial ratios most effected by IFRS 16, are the balance ratios, regardless of the size of the companies. Performance ratios and liquidity ratios are only significantly affected for medium-sized and large listed industrial companies. The study also shows that IFRS 16 will not reduce information asymmetry between companies and investors, as the information on operating leases is already disclosed in the notes. However, IFRS 16 will fulfill its function for less sophisticated investors and reduce the costs of adjusting the financial statements for investors. We can therefore conclude that IFRS 16 is not an "unnecessary evil".

As technology and capital markets complexity increases, so does the amount of accounting information disclosed by companies in their financial reports. Nowadays, we reached an impasse, where it is questionable if more information will in fact reduce information asymmetry. Previous authors strongly criticize the length of financial statements and annual reports, arguing that they should communicate more rather than just be voluminous as the current volume of information can be counterproductive to the average individual to acquire, retain and process all available information. Based on evidence of previous accounting literature on presentation format and the psychology theories of attribution theory and cognitive load theory, we hypothesize that, by manipulating accounting information using a more general accessible format such as the narrative one, individual investors are able to better understand accounting information and, thereafter, make a more effective use of it versus the concurrent non-fundamental information available in a standard investment decision making setting. To achieve our research goal, we use a mixed method research strategy with an Exploratory Sequential Design: the qualitative method act as a preparation for the quantitative one. Concerning the qualitative method, we interview- using the Q methodology approach - 31 subjects, being 13 analysts/professional investors and 18 individual investors. Our objective in this phase is to identify patterns in the usage of accounting/non-accounting information by analysts/professional investors, in contrast to individual investors\' information choices. By doing so, we can use the obtained results to base our experimental information choices regarding (a) which accounting information pieces were most preferable to professional investors and (b) the information presentation sequence to be followed in the experimental setting. Next, we develop a 2 X 2 between-subjects experimental design in which we manipulate the presentation format of a hypothetical company between the traditional \'tabular and footnotes\' design versus the narrative content-only design. We also vary the financial performance between \'good\' and \'bad\' to check if the variables of interest would impact (a) investment propensity on the company\'s shares and (b) the amount of information retrieved from memory. As our main results, we find that the narrative format per se does not impact investment propensity and that the alternative presentation format is beneficial for participants with less than 5 years of investment experience in capital markets in the poor financial performance condition, adjusting their investment propensity to the same investment propensity level of more experienced investors. / A medida que a complexidade da tecnologia e dos mercados de capitais aumentou, o montante da informação contábil divulgada pelas empresas em seus relatórios financeiros também aumentou. Atualmente, chegamos a um impasse, onde é questionável se mais informações reduzem a assimetria de informações. Autores anteriores criticam fortemente o tamanho das demonstrações financeiras e relatórios anuais, argumentando que eles devem comunicar mais ao invés de apenas serem volumosos, já que o atual volume de informações pode ser contraproducente para o indivíduo médio adquirir, reter e processar todas as informações disponíveis. Com base na evidência de literatura contábil anterior sobre o formato de apresentação e as teorias de psicologia, teoria da atribuição e teoria da carga cognitiva, temos a hipótese de que, ao manipular informações contábeis através de um formato amplamente mais acessível, como a narrativa, os investidores individuais serão capazes de compreender melhor as informações contábeis e, posteriormente, ter um uso mais proeminente delas em relação às atuais informações não fundamentais disponíveis para uma avaliação de decisão de investimento. Para alcançar nosso objetivo de pesquisa, utiliza-se uma estratégia de pesquisa de método misto com um Desenho Sequencial Exploratório, o método qualitativo atua como uma preparação para o quantitativo. Como método qualitativo, entrevistou-se - usando a abordagem da Metodologia Q - 31 sujeitos, sendo 13 analistas/investidores profissionais e 18 investidores individuais. O objetivo nesta fase foi entender o padrão de comportamento de uso de informações contábeis/não-contábeis por analistas/investidores profissionais, em comparação com as escolhas de informações de investidores individuais. Ao fazê-lo, puderam-se usar os resultados obtidos das entrevistas para basear as escolhas de informações experimentais em relação a (a) quais peças de informação contábil eram mais preferíveis aos investidores profissionais e (b) a sequência de apresentação de informações a seguir na configuração experimental. Em seguida, desenvolve-se um design experimental 2 x 2 entre os sujeitos em que manipulamos o formato de apresentação de uma empresa hipotética entre o design tradicional \'tabular e notas explicativas\' versus o design narrativo apenas de conteúdo. Foi alterado também o desempenho financeiro entre \'bom\' e \'ruim\' para verificar se as variáveis de interesse impactam (a) propensão de investimento nas ações da empresa e (b) a quantidade de informações recuperadas da memória. Como nossos principais resultados, identificamos que o formato narrativo individualmente não afeta a propensão de investimento e que o formato de apresentação alternativa beneficiou os participantes com menos de 5 anos de experiência de investimento nos mercados de capitais na condição de má performance financeira, ajustando sua propensão ao mesmo nível de investimento de investidores mais experientes.

Le marché français, caractérisé en particulier par une forte segmentation, d’une faible sophistication des investisseurs et une domination des banques, serait peu compétitif. Sur le plan théorique, nous cherchons à illustrer, à l’aide des deux modèles simples, les effets d’une absence relative de compétition entre les fonds. Le premier met en évidence le rôle de la compétition dans la création des incitations implicites. Le second tente d’illustrer le fait que cette absence de compétition (liée à la domination des banques sur le marché français) conduirait à une performance plus faible pour les fonds. Sur le plan empirique, nous vérifions, d’une part, l’existence de ce manque de compétition du marché français. D’autre part, nous mettons en évidence l’existence d’un conflit d’intérêt direct entre les investisseurs et les fonds, résultant direct du manque de compétition du marché. Au niveau de la rentabilité des fonds, le manque de compétition du marché reflète dans le fait que les investisseurs ne réagissent pas fortement à la rentabilité relative des fonds. Au niveau des frais, l’insensibilité des investisseurs individuels aux frais des fonds pourrait traduire une moindre concurrence du marché. Nous observons également une discrimination par les frais entre les investisseurs institutionnels et les investisseurs individuels. Ces derniers paient plus chers pour une rentabilité plus faible. Toutefois, le marché commence à montrer des signes de compétition, reflétant dans le fait que les investisseurs individuels commencent à faire attention au rapport qualité-prix des fonds. Par ailleurs, un plus grand degré de sophistication des investisseurs institutionnels pourrait expliquer le fait que nous ne constatons aucun lien entre les frais et la rentabilité des fonds dans ce segment. En effet, ces investisseurs, susceptibles d’être plus sophistiqués, pourraient estimer la qualité de la gestion par des mesures plus complexes de la performance. Enfin, nous fournissons une preuve de l’existence d’un conflit d’intérêt entre les investisseurs et les fonds : les déséconomies d’échelle de performance. / The French market, characterized especially by a strong segmentation, low sophistication of investors and a domination of banks, would not be competitive. On the theoretical side, we try to illustrate, using two simple models, the effects of a lack of competition. The first one highlights the role of competition in the creation of implicit incentives. The second one shows that the lack of competition leads to weak funds’ performance. Empirically, we verify firstly the existence of this lack of competition in the French market. Secondly, we show the existence of a conflict of interest between investors and funds. The lack of competition reflects by the fact that investors do not react strongly to funds’ performance and individual investors are not sensitive to fund fees. We also observe a price discrimination between institutional and individual investors. The latter pays more for lower return. However, the market begins to show some signs of competition. In fact, individual investors start to pay attention to the “price-quality” rapport. In addition, a greater degree of sophistication of institutional investors may explain the fact that we do not obtain any relation between fees and return in this segment. Indeed, these investors may be more sophisticated and could estimate the quality of a fund by more complex measures of performance. Finally, we provide evidence for the existence of a conflict of interest between investors and funds: diseconomies of scale.

Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2018-04-23T15:13:40Z No. of bitstreams: 1 José Antonio Cescon_.pdf: 2309850 bytes, checksum: aed6465c39716ff0455633261671bd8e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-23T15:13:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 José Antonio Cescon_.pdf: 2309850 bytes, checksum: aed6465c39716ff0455633261671bd8e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-01-18 / Nenhuma / O processo de formação da tomada de decisão tem na moderna teoria de finanças o pressuposto de que os investidores agem de forma racional no mercado, são avessos ao risco, buscam a maximização da utilidade esperada, que os mercados são altamente eficientes e que os investidores exploram todas as oportunidades de arbitragem. Se esta premissa estiver correta, como então explicar porque investidores e analistas do mercado financeiro adquirem, mantém e/ou recomendam ações de empresas com patrimônio líquido negativo, já que estas empresas em tese estão prontas para a liquidação. Esta contestação a racionalidade ilimitada dos agentes do mercado financeiro tem sua base nas finanças comportamentais. Partindo destas premissas essa tese buscou compreender como se dá a formação do processo da tomada de decisão de investidores e analistas do mercado financeiro em relação à compra/venda/manutenção e/ou recomendação de ações de empresas com patrimônio líquido negativo listadas na B3 (Brasil, Bolsa e Balcão). Primeiramente montou-se uma carteira de investimentos, cuja composição é somente de empresas que adentraram ao patrimônio líquido negativo para verificar se ocorreram retornos positivos anormais para investimentos em empresas neste tipo de situação. A carteira foi formada com 77 empresas de um total de 208 que apresentaram pelo menos um trimestre de patrimônio líquido negativo no período de análise de retorno da carteira que foi de 1998 à 2016. Comparando o resultado desta carteira com investimentos livre de risco (Poupança e CDI) e a um investimento de risco similar (IBrX50), na análise da carteira buscou-se confirmar se é possível obter retornos positivos anormais em determinado período com investimentos em empresas com patrimônio líquido negativo e se este retorno propiciado é condizente com a relação risco/retorno preconizado pela moderna teoria de finanças. Os resultados encontrados apontam que é possível obter resultados positivos anormais, porém não atendem a relação risco/retorno se comparado a um investimento livre de risco. Estes resultados serviram de base para o desenvolvimento da tese proposta de que a formação do processo da tomada de decisão por parte de investidores e analistas do mercado financeiro trata-se de um processo de decisão parcialmente racional, pois este processo é afetado por aspectos comportamentais. Para confirmar esta tese, foram realizadas entrevistas com investidores (22) e analistas do mercado financeiro (09), que possuíram, possuem, recomendaram, recomendam a compra/venda e/ou manutenção de ações de empresas com patrimônio líquido negativo. As questões semiestruturadas das entrevistas foram suportadas pela moderna teoria de finanças e pelos vieses comportamentais: Contabilidade Mental; Aversão a Perda; Fuga ao Arrependimento; Efeito Disjunção, Efeito Manada, Loteria, Excesso de Confiança, Excesso de Otimismo e Ilusão Monetária. O método utilizado foi a análise de conteúdo, tendo como base as premissas da Hipótese do Mercado Eficiente (HME) e das Finanças Comportamentais (FC). Os resultados encontrados conduziram a três categorias de processos na formação da tomada de decisão. A 1ª categoria “Processo Racional”, atende a premissa da HME, de que tanto o investidor quanto os analistas são racionais. A 2ª categoria “Processo Pseudorracional”, atende parcialmente a premissa da HME, quanto atende parcialmente a premissa das Finanças comportamentais. A 3ª categoria “Processo Comportamental” atende a premissa das Finanças comportamentais. Os resultados demonstram que individualmente nenhum dos investidores ou analistas do mercado financeiro entrevistados podem ser classificados dentro de uma categoria específica, neste sentido não há um processo totalmente Racional, Pseudorracional ou Comportamental. / The process of forming decision-making has in the modern theory of finance the assumption that investors act rationally in the market, are risk-averse, seek to maximize expected utility, that markets are highly efficient, and that investors exploit arbitration opportunities. If this premise is correct, how then explain why investors and financial market analysts acquire, maintain and/or recommend shares of companies with negative equity, since these companies are ready for settlement. This challenge to the unlimited rationality of financial market agents has its basis in behavioral finance. Based on these premises, this thesis sought to understand how the decision-making process of financial market investors and analysts is formed in relation to the purchase/sale/maintenance and/or recommendation of shares of companies with negative equity listed on B3 (Brazil, Stock Exchange and Counter). Firstly, an investment portfolio was set up, whose composition is only of companies that went into negative equity to verify if there were abnormal positive returns for investments in companies in this type of situation. The portfolio was formed by 77 companies out of a total of 208 that had at least one quarter of negative equity in the period of analysis of portfolio returns that was from 1998 to 2016. Comparing the result of this portfolio with risk-free investments (Savings account and CDI) and a similar risk investment (IBrX50), the analysis of the portfolio sought to confirm if it is possible to obtain abnormal positive returns in a given period with investments in companies with negative equity and if this return provided is consistent with the risk ratio / return advocated by the modern theory of finance. The results show that it is possible to obtain abnormal positive results, but they do not meet the risk/return relationship when compared to a risk-free investment. These results served as a basis for the development of the proposed thesis that the formation of the decision-making process by financial market investors and analysts is a partially rational decision process because this process is affected by behavioral aspects. To confirm this thesis, interviews were conducted with investors (22) and financial market analysts (09), who owned, have, recommend, the purchase/sale and/or maintenance of shares of companies with negative equity. The questions of these interviews were supported by the behavioral biases: Mental Accounting; Loss Aversion; Fear to Repentance; Disjunction Effect, Herd Effect, Lottery, Excess of Confidence, Excess of Optimism and Monetary Illusion. The method used was content analysis, based on the assumptions of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (HME) and Behavioral Finance. The results found led to three categories of process in the formation of decision making. The 1st category "Rational Process", meets the HME premise that both the investor and the analysts are rational. The second category "Pseudo-rational Process", partially meets the premise of HME, as it partially meets the premise of behavioral finance. The 3rd category "Behavioral Process" meets the premise of Behavioral Finance. The results demonstrate that individually none of the investors or financial market analysts interviewed can be classified within a specific category, in this sense there is not a totally Rational, Pseudo-rational or Behavioral process.

Uppsatsen undersöker hur väl resultat och bokförda värden förklarar marknadsvärde och avkastning för bolag noterade på Stockholmsbörsen under perioden 1999-2017. Vidare undersöker uppsatsen om värderelevansen av resultat och bokförda värden skiljer sig mellan hög- och lågteknologiska bolag samt om införandet av IFRS har påverkat värderelevansen. Justerad förklaringsgrad för tre regressionsmodeller används för att undersöka värderelevansens förändring över tid. Undersökningen visar att värderelevansen av resultat har minskat. Värderelevansen av bokförda värden av tillgångar och skulder, samt av resultat och bokfört värde av eget kapital kombinerat, har ökat. Alla tre modellerna visar, förutom i ett fall, på högre värderelevans för högteknologiska bolag än för lågteknologiska bolag. Vid en jämförelse av perioden innan införandet av IFRS och perioden efter har värderelevansen av resultat minskat, medan värderelevansen av bokförda värden, samt av resultat och bokfört värde av eget kapital kombinerat, ökat under samma tidsperiod. / This thesis examines the explanatory power of earnings and book values for market value and stock return for firms noted on the Nasdaq Stockholm exchange during the period 1999-2017. Further, this thesis examines if the value-relevance of earnings and book values differs between high-tech and low-tech firms, and if the implementation of IFRS has affected the value-relevance. The coefficient of determination of three regression models is used to examine the change in value-relevance over time. The examination shows that the value-relevance of earnings has declined. The value-relevance of book values of assets and liabilities, and of earnings and book value of equity, have increased. All three models show, except in one case, higher value-relevance for high-tech firms than for low-tech firms. A comparison of the periods before and after the implementation of IFRS shows that the value-relevance of earnings has declined, while the value-relevance of book values, and of earnings and book values combined, have increased.

Dans un contexte économique mondialisé, les prises de position d’achat et/ou de vente sur les marchés financiers obéissent à des logiques qui échappent parfois à la rationalité (bulle spéculative…). Les prévisionnistes et les analystes financiers mobilisent une boite à outil statistique pour connaître les tendances futures à partir de l’étude des tendances passées. Cette boite à outils repose sur l’hypothèse de normalité des lois statistiques sous jacentes ce qui autorise des logiques d’inférence statistique, de test, de corrélation... On a pu observer par le passé que les résultats de ces projections ont souvent été miss à défaut : la crise financière que nous traversons correspond par exemple à un choc difficilement prévisible même s’il fait l’objet d’une rationalisation a posteriori. Notre objectif, partant de ce constat, est de renouveler les approches traditionnelles des prévisionnistes et analystes financiers en mobilisant deux approches complémentaires : l’intelligence économique appliquée au domaine financier et l’utilisation de techniques modernes de gestion de l’imprévisible. Dans ce travail interdisciplinaire, notre approche s’inspire tout d’abord du concept d’image, de réputation d'une entreprise cible et de la démarche du cycle de renseignement issue de l’approche de l’intelligence économique. De plus, nous pouvons compléter notre démarche à travers les travaux de Nassim Nicolas Taleb. Nous mobilisons enfin le concept de force de situation (François Julien) pour renforcer la décision des investisseurs institutionnels en situation d’incertitude. Pour valider notre contribution théorique, nous avons choisi le Vietnam comme terrain de recherche. A partir d’une approche qualitative conduite auprès de gérants de portefeuilles Vietnamiens, nous avons pu connaître mieux leurs pratiques de prises de décisions, les critères d’évaluation d’investissement différents issus des analyses de matrices stratégiques, leur perception de la réputation et le rôle de l’intelligence financière dans leur processus d’investissement. Nous proposons alors une méthode qualitative reposant sur la réputation pour caractériser le degré de robustesse d’une organisation à des chocs et élaborons en outre un système de renseignement financier en prenant en compte la hiérarchie des critères d’évaluation d’investissement des gérants de portefeuilles Vietnamiens. Notre démarche est illustrée par l’étude de cas d'une entreprise aquacole Vietnamienne. / In the context of economic globalization, the stand point of purchase and/or sale on the financial market obeys logics which escape sometimes rationality (speculative bubbles…).The forecasters and the financial analysts mobilize one statistical toolbox in order to know the future trends based on the study of the last trends.This toolbox builds on the assumption of normality of the statistical laws underlying which authorizes logics of statistical inference, test, correlation… We could observe in the past which the results of these projections were often failed:the financial crisis which we pass correspondent to a not easily foreseeable shock even if it is the object of a rationalization a posteriori. Our objective,on the basis of thisreport,is to renew the traditional approaches of the forecasters and financial analysts by mobilizing two complementary approaches: business intelligence applied to the financial field and the utilization of modern technologies of management of the unforeseeable risks.In this interdisciplinary work,our approaches are inspired,first of all concept oftheimage or of the reputation of a target company and approach of the intelligence cycle resulting from the approach of the business intelligence.Moreover,we can complete our approach through the principle of bounded rationality,that of the speculative bubble and that of the logic uncertain suggested by Nassim Nicolas Taleb. Finally, we mobilize the concept of force of situation(François Julien) in order to reinforce the decision of the institutional investors in uncertain situation.To validate our theoretical contribution,we chose Viet Nam as our ground of research.From a qualitative approach and based on experimentation ahead 5 Vietnamese portfolio managers, we could better know their practice of making decision, their different investment evaluation criteria, their perception of reputation and the role of the financial intelligence in their process of investment. Thus, we propose a qualitative method based on the reputation in order to characterize the degree of robustness of an organization faced to shocks and elaborate moreover a system of financial information by taking into account the hierarchy of the investment evaluation criteria of the Vietnamese portfolio managers. Our approach is illustrated through a case study of a Vietnamese aquaculture company.

臺灣期貨市場中，三大法人的舉動及其持有部位的多寡往往是市場上投資人關注的對象，在未來市場走勢仍然混沌不明的情況下，投資人實在需要個利器來判別盤勢。本研究希望透過臺灣期貨交易所目前提供三大法人及大額交易人的交易資訊與未平倉資訊等籌碼面因素，來分析機構投資人及大額交易人之多、空買賣力道，希冀由此能預測臺股期貨指數漲跌趨勢。 本文發現：1.以期貨及選擇權的資料或單獨以期貨作為臺股期貨指數漲跌之訊號，均是自營商解釋能力較佳；2.單獨以選擇權為訊號，外資及自營商未平倉之契約金額皆有不錯之解釋能力；3.當外資選擇權未平倉部位契約金額淨額由正轉成連續負值時，臺指期貨就會出現一波空頭走勢；4.在時機的掌握上外資的選擇權操作比三大法人合計臺指期未平倉部位契約金額淨額更加精確；5.指數連續下跌的情況下，外資的選擇權部位便會持續的增加，直到指數開始反彈或回檔時，才會回補空單部位，反之亦然。

<p>Den svenska marknaden för kommersiella fastigheter är het och har varit det under lång tid. Bland annat konstateras i en undersökning från revisionsbolaget Pricewaterhouse Coopers och Urban Land Institute att Stockholm, efter London och Paris, just nu rankas som Europas tredje mest attraktiva stad för utländska investerare att köpa och äga fastigheter i.</p><p>Detta väckte vår nyfikenhet att konkretisera de faktorer som kan ha lett fram till att utländska fastighetsinvesterare attraheras av den svenska fastighetsmarknaden.</p><p>Genom att vända oss till företag med stor inblick i de förhållanden som råder på den svenska fastighetsmarknaden fick vi intervjusvar från fem representanter.</p><p>Arbetet med teorin gjorde att vi förväntade oss ett visst svar men intervjuerna gav oss ett helt annat resultat. Denna uppsats belyser många faktorer som gör Sveriges fastighetsmarknad lättillgänglig. Dock påvisar vår studie att framförallt transparensen och likviditeten på den svenska fastighetsmarknaden är det som gör den så intressant för utländska investerare.</p><p>Transparensen på den svenska fastighetsmarknaden, som är en stor konkurrensfördel på den globala marknaden, hotas av skattetekniska konstruktioner. Att inte förlora denna fördel på den internationella investeringsmarknaden är ett problem som måste lösas. Hur detta ska ske är ett uppslag för en fortsatt studie.</p> / <p>The Swedish market of commercial real estate is really sizzling and has been so for some years now. In an analysis made by the audit company Pricewaterhouse Coopers and Urban Land Institute it was stated that Stockholm, succeeding London and Paris, is ranked as the third most attractive city for foreign investors in terms of buying and owning real estate property.</p><p>This made us curious to try to pin-point any factors which might have lead to foreign investors interest in the Swedish real estate market.</p><p>By turning to companies with very good insight in the business and knowledge about the conditions concerning the Swedish real estate market, we are grateful for received interview results by courtesy of five representatives.</p><p>Our work with background theories lead us to expect a certain answer, but the results of our survey surprised us with a different result. This thesis highlights many factors making the Swedish real estate market so favourable to investors, but the most prominent elements are the facts that the Swedish market is very transparent with a high level of liquidity.</p><p>For the Swedish real estate market the big advantage in global competition is named transparency, but this advantage is threatened by taxation techniques to maximise profit. Not to loose this Swedish benefit on the international investment market is a problem yet to be solved.</p>

Taking a sociological perspective on the market for corporate control this thesis calls into question financial capitalism with its preference for clear shareholder-value governance of the corporation. The institutional setting chosen to show this is Sweden, with its particularly shareholder friendly governance regime and its very active takeover market. To this is added three longitudinal case studies of cross-border hostile takeover processes during the sixth takeover wave in Europe. These reveal that the success of cross-border hostile bids has little to do with the theory of the market for corporate control, as a market where contests enable “good managers” to win over “bad managers”, with the overarching goal of enhancing wealth creation for society at large. Instead the most successful actors on a market for corporate control are those who best understand that market’s power dynamics – including the use of regulatory and moral arbitrage between different national frameworks and the leveraging of short-termism of institutional investors. The case studies are then analyzed in relation to the revised Swedish takeover rules of 2009. This shows that the revision did not address the problems detected, focusing instead on enhancing deal making and further limiting the board’s ability to work for long term value creation. As a whole this thesis calls for a development of a theory of a market for corporate control that in a more sustainable way will enable board of directors to focus on the corporation as value accretive entity. Sophie Nachemson-Ekwall has conducted her PhD work at the Stockholm School of Economics and is today a researcher
at the Center for Management and Organization at the Stockholm School of Economics Institute for Research (SIR). She has a background as a prize winning financial journalist for over 20 years and has co-authored three books about delicate issues in large Swedish corporations. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2012</p>