在傳統的迴歸模型架構下，統計推論的進行需要假設誤差項之間相互獨立，且來自於常態分配。當理論模型假設條件無法達成的時候，排列檢定（permutation tests）這種無母數的統計方法通常會是可行的替代方法。 在以往的文獻中，應用於複迴歸模型（multiple regression）之係數排列檢定方法主要以樞紐統計量（pivotal quantity）作為檢定統計量，進而探討不同排列檢定方式的差異。本文除了採用t統計量這一個樞紐統計量作為檢定統計量的排列檢定方式外，亦納入以非樞紐統計量的迴歸係數估計量b22所建構而成的排列檢定方式，藉由蒙地卡羅模擬方法，比較以此兩類檢定方式之型一誤差（type I error）機率以及檢定力（power），並觀察其可行性以及適用時機。模擬結果顯示，在解釋變數間不相關且誤差分配較不偏斜的情形下，Freedman and Lane (1983)、Levin and Robbins (1983)、Kennedy (1995)之排列方法在樣本數大時適用b2統計量，且其檢定力較使用t2統計量高，但差異程度不大；若解釋變數間呈現高度相關，則不論誤差的偏斜狀態，Freedman and Lane (1983)、Kennedy (1995) 之排列方法於樣本數大時適用b2統計量，其檢定力結果也較使用t2統計量高，而且兩者的差異程度比起解釋變數間不相關時更加明顯。整體而言，使用t2統計量適用的場合較廣；相反的，使用b2的模擬結果則常需視樣本數大小以及解釋變數間相關性而定。 / In traditional linear models, error term are usually assumed to be independently, identically, normally distributed with mean zero and a constant variance. When the assumptions cannot meet, permutation tests can be an alternative method. Several permutation tests have been proposed to test the significance of a partial regression coefficient in a multiple regression model. t=b⁄(se(b)), an asymptotically pivotal quantity, is usually preferred and suggested as the test statistic. In this study, we take not only t statistics, but also the estimates of the partial regression coefficient as our test statistics. Their performance are compared in terms of the probability of committing a type I error and the power through the use of Monte Carlo simulation method. Situations where estimates of the partial regression coefficients may outperform t statistics are discussed.

Background: Patient empowerment is viewed as a priority by policy makers, patients and practitioners worldwide. Although there are a number of measures available, none have been developed specifically for patients in the UK with long-term conditions. It is the aim of this study to report the development and preliminary validation of an empowerment instrument for patients with long-term conditions in primary care.Methods: The study involved three methods. Firstly, a systematic review was conducted to identify existing empowerment instruments, and to describe, compare and appraise their content and quality. The results supported the need for a new instrument. Item content of existing instruments helped support development of the new instrument. Secondly, empowerment was explored in patients with long-term conditions and primary care practitioners using qualitative methods, to explore its meaning and the factors that support or hinder empowerment. This led to the development of a conceptual model to support instrument development. Thirdly, a new instrument for measuring empowerment in patients with long-term conditions in primary care was developed. A cross-sectional survey of patients was conducted to collect preliminary data on acceptability, reliability and validity, using pre-specified hypotheses based on existing theoretical and empirical work. Results: Nine instruments meeting review inclusion criteria were identified. Only one instrument was developed to measure empowerment in long-term conditions in the context of primary care, and that was judged to be insufficient in terms of content and purpose. Five dimensions (‘identity’, ‘knowledge and understanding’, ‘personal control’, personal decision-making’, and ‘enabling other patients’) of empowerment were identified through published literature and the qualitative work and incorporated into a preliminary version of the new instrument. A postal survey achieved 197 responses (response rate 33%). Almost half of the sample reported circulatory, diabetic or musculoskeletal conditions. Exploratory factor analysis suggested a three factor solution (‘identity’, ‘knowledge and understanding’ and ‘enabling’). Two dimensions of empowerment (‘identity’ and ‘enabling’) and total empowerment showed acceptable levels of internal consistency. The measure showed relationships with external measures (including quality of chronic illness care, self-efficacy and educational qualifications) that were generally supportive of its construct validity.Conclusion: Initial analyses suggest that the new measure meets basic psychometric criteria and has potential for the measurement of patient empowerment in long-term conditions in primary care. The scale may have a role in research on quality of care for long-term conditions, and could function as a patient-reported outcome measure. However, further validation is required before more extensive use of the measure.

Additive Manufacturing (AM) is on the verge of causing a downfall to conventional manufacturing with its huge potential in part manufacture. With an increase in demand for customized product, on-demand production and sustainable manufacturing, AM is gaining a great deal of attention from different industries in recent years. AM is redefining product design by revolutionizing how products are made. AM is extensively utilized in automotive, aerospace, medical and dental applications for its ability to produce intricate and lightweight structures. Despite their popularity, AM has not fully replaced traditional methods with one of the many reasons being inferior surface quality. Surface texture plays a crucial role in the functionality of a component and can cause serious problems to the manufactured parts if left untreated. Therefore, it is necessary to fully understand the surface behavior concerning the factors affecting it to establish control over the surface quality. The challenge with AM is that it generates surfaces that are different compared to conventional manufacturing techniques and varies with respect to different materials, geometries and process parameters. Therefore, AM surfaces often require novel characterization approaches to fully explain the manufacturing process. Most of the previously published work has been broadly based on two-dimensional parametric measurements. Some researchers have already addressed the AM surfaces with areal surface texture parameters but mostly used average parameters for characterization which is still distant from a full surface and functional interpretation. There has been a continual effort in improving the characterization of AM surfaces using different methods and one such effort is presented in this thesis. The primary focus of this thesis is to get a better understanding of AM surfaces to facilitate process control and optimization. For this purpose, the surface texture of Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM) and Laser-based Powder Bed Fusion of Metals (PBF-LB/M) have been characterized using various tools such as Power Spectral Density (PSD), Scale-sensitive fractal analysis based on area-scale relations, feature-based characterization and quantitative characterization by both profile and areal surface texture parameters. A methodology was developed using a Linear multiple regression and a combination of the above-mentioned characterization techniques to identify the most significant parameters for discriminating different surfaces and also to understand the manufacturing process. The results suggest that the developed approaches can be used as a guideline for AM users who are looking to optimize the process for gaining better surface quality and component functionality, as it works effectively in finding the significant parameters representing the unique signatures of the manufacturing process. Future work involves improving the accuracy of the results by implementing improved statistical models and testing other characterization methods to enhance the quality and function of the parts produced by the AM process.

Thèse par articles / Dans un contexte où les données probantes sont prisées en éducation, cette thèse en didactique du français rappelle la pertinence, pour la recherche et la pratique, de s’intéresser en premier lieu à ce que l’enseignante fait en classe de français. Quelles sont les stratégies pédagogiques utilisées par les enseignantes en classe de français au secondaire québécois qui participent au développement de la compétence scripturale des élèves? Pour répondre à cette question, trois objectifs de recherche spécifiques sont poursuivis dans cette thèse. Chaque objectif fait l’objet d’un article scientifique, qui s’intègre dans un devis séquentiel de méthodes mixtes (Creswell, Plano Clark, Gutmann et Hanson, 2003). Le premier article vise à identifier les stratégies pédagogiques utilisées en classe de français au secondaire québécois liées à l’écriture de meilleurs textes par les élèves. Il repose sur une analyse secondaire (Dale, 1993) de données collectées à grande échelle au secondaire québécois par le groupe DIEPE (1995) (analyses factorielles exploratoires et régressions multiples à deux niveaux). Le deuxième article vise à identifier les stratégies pédagogiques utilisées en classe de français au secondaire québécois qui, selon le savoir d’expérience (Tardif et Lessard, 1999) des enseignantes, participent particulièrement au développement de la compétence scripturale des élèves. Il repose sur un atelier délibératif (Dogba, Dossa et Dagenais, 2017), lors duquel six enseignantes d’expérience choisissent ensemble des stratégies pédagogiques développant particulièrement la compétence scripturale de leurs élèves. Le troisième article vise à décrire comment peuvent être utilisées en classe de français au secondaire québécois les stratégies pédagogiques retenues consensuellement à l’issue de l’atelier délibératif. Il repose sur l’analyse d’observations directes non participantes menées dans la classe d’une enseignante de français du secondaire québécois au moyen d’un synopsis (Blaser, 2007, 2009; Lord, 2012, 2014; Schneuwly et Dolz, 2009) et d’une grille d’analyse complémentaire qui repose sur les gestes didactiques fondamentaux de l’enseignante (Aeby Daghé et Dolz, 2008; Schneuwly, 2000, 2009; Schneuwly et Dolz, 2009). La mise en relation des résultats des trois articles nous conduit à discuter de leur complémentarité et de celle des méthodes employées ainsi qu’à souligner leurs implications pour la recherche et la pratique. Trois constats se dégagent. 1) Faire écrire les élèves permet aux enseignantes de français du secondaire québécois d’enseigner l’écriture, puisque cela leur permet d’utiliser plusieurs stratégies pédagogiques dans le but de développer la compétence scripturale de leurs élèves. 2) Pour développer la compétence scripturale des élèves, plusieurs stratégies pédagogiques peuvent être utilisées en classe, toutes de façons à la fois singulières et plurielles. Ces stratégies pédagogiques reposeraient toutes sur la mise à disposition de textes, que l’enseignante peut fournir aux élèves ou qu’elle peut leur faire écrire, et sur la mise en évidence des dimensions des objets de savoir à enseigner dans ces textes, bref sur des formes spécifiques des gestes didactiques fondamentaux présentifier et pointer (Schneuwly, 2000, 2009). 3) L’enseignante joue un rôle central pour développer la compétence scripturale des élèves en classe de français au secondaire québécois, par l’étayage et la diversification des stratégies pédagogiques. / In the context of evidence-based education, this thesis in French didactics stresses the relevance, for research and practice, of being primarily interested in what teachers do in French class. What are the pedagogical strategies used in class by French teachers within Quebec secondary schools that participate in developing students’ scriptural competence? To answer this question, three specific research objectives are pursued in this thesis. Each objective is the subject of a scientific article, which are all part of a sequential mixed methods research design (Creswell, Plano Clark, Gutmann and Hanson, 2003). The first article aims to identify the pedagogical strategies used in French class that relate to the writing of better texts by students in Quebec secondary schools. It is based on a secondary analysis (Dale, 1993) of large-scale data that were collected in Quebec secondary schools by the DIEPE group (1995) (exploratory factor analysis and two-level multiple regressions). The second article aims to identify the pedagogical strategies used in French class within Quebec secondary schools that specifically participate in developing students’ scriptural competence according to the teacher’s experience knowledge (Tardif and Lessard, 1999). It is based on a deliberative workshop (Dogba, Dossa and Dagenais, 2017), during which six experienced teachers together choose pedagogical strategies that specifically develop the scriptural competence of their students. The third article aims to describe how the pedagogical strategies elected at the end of the deliberative workshop can be used in French class within Quebec secondary schools. It is based on the analysis of direct nonparticipant observations that were conducted in the class of a French secondary school teacher in Quebec using a synopsis (Blaser, 2007, 2009; Lord, 2012, 2014; Schneuwly and Dolz, 2009) and a complementary analysis grid based on the teacher's fundamental didactic gestures (Aeby Daghé and Dolz, 2008; Schneuwly, 2000, 2009; Schneuwly and Dolz, 2009). The results of the three articles are then discussed to explore the complementarity of their results and methods, as well as to highlight their implications for research and practice. Three observations emerge. 1) Having students write allows French secondary school teachers in Quebec to teach writing, as it enables them to use several pedagogical strategies to develop their students’ scriptural competence. 2) To develop students’ scriptural competence, several teaching strategies can be used in class, in ways that are all simultaneously singular and plural. These pedagogical strategies may be based on the provision of texts that the teacher can show to students or that she can have them produce, and on highlighting the knowledge objects’ dimensions that ought to be taught in these texts, in short on specific forms of the fundamental didactic gestures of presentifying and pointing (Schneuwly, 2000, 2009). 3) The teacher plays a central role in developing the scriptural competence of students in French class within Quebec secondary schools, by scaffolding and diversifying pedagogical strategies.

In the light of recent findings regarding age and cumulative language exposure in the domain of Second Language Acquisition, the present study examines how starting age and linguistic input influences Swedish learners of French in a formal instructional setting. In contrast to natural settings, research suggests that a younger starting age in formal settings does not result in more advanced long-term competences in the target language. For the benefits associated with a younger age to be triggered, significant amounts of rich linguistic input need to be obtained by the learner on a daily basis. To test the validity of these findings, two groups with different starting ages were asked to fill in a questionnaire about their age and language contact as well as to perform a grammar and vocabulary test. A correlation analysis showed that an older starting age did in fact have a statistically significant relationship with higher test results and that the participants who reported having more frequent self-regulatory habits of studying French also performed better than the ones with little to no extracurricular exposure. However, a regression analysis did not manage to confirm these correlations and did instead find that other variables such as motivation and which group the participants belonged to have a much stronger significance than mere starting age and the amount of received input.

The aim of this thesis is to describe the course of consumption of electricity. One of the feasible ways of description is statistical analysis, which enables to calculate statistically significant factors and their combinations that contributed to the course of consumption of electricity. These factors may be used for modulation of future electricity consumption, and therefore also for long-time prediction. The second chapter discusses the expansion of electricity usage in the Czech Republic from the turn of the 19th century until nowadays. The chapter describes the development of transmission system, development of electricity consumption in the sectors of the national economy, possibilities of using electric energy, and overall balance of electricity and sources of energy. The third chapter presents an overview of usage and consumption of electrical energy in the neighboring European countries as well as in the most interesting countries of the World. The fourth chapter contains statistical analysis. The first part of the chapter details a list of the analyzed quantities of individual consumptions, of the investigated factors, and the analyzed countries. Further, the chapter explains the method of statistical analysis via using simple and multiple regression and its subsequent application and evaluation for the Czech Republic and the others European countries. According to the result, it is GDP that has the main impact on the trends in the course of consumption of electricity. However, it is necessary to consider other factors influencing the consumption of electricity, too, and not rely solely on GDP in terms of long-time prediction of electricity consumption. The fifth chapter discusses the reduction of electricity consumption and savings, which can be both political and macroeconomic result. Quantification of savings is not always unequivocal and any cost-saving actions can lead to an increase in electricity consumption, which can, in effect, be bigger than any possible savings.

The Silicon Carbide Bipolar Transistor is a device that is barely brought into real application so far. It features very low conduction losses and a high power density. The application is in some points different and unusual in comparison to the mainstream power semiconductors as IGBTs or MOSFETs. The Silicon Carbide Bipolar Transistor, the SiC-BJT, is a current driven device and the effort in driving is uncommonly high. As an outcome of the present work it can be said that it is more like a shift of requirements from the power semiconductor power unit to the driver stage. With consideration of all system losses, including driving losses, the final unoptimized COSIVU prototype inverter system gained an increase of efficiency of 40-60% in comparison to the IGBT-based reference system dependent on the applied load points. In terms of reliability and possible failure modes, the SiC-BJT behaves differently from the mainstream devices. One result of the project is that the chips itself are quite robust but the packaging needs some improvements. Thermal impedance spectroscopy is a method for detecting possible deterioration in the cooling path of a device. A method for temperature estimation of the SiC-BJT during on-state will be presented in this work. The electronic hardware for thermal impedance spectroscopy has been developed to do the measurements in a non-laboratory setup in the inverter in real application. Furthermore, the hardware implementation was realized on a very small space for integration into an in-wheel motor inverter system. / Der Siliciumkarbid Bipolartransistor ist ein leistungselektronisches Bauelement, was bis heute kaum über Labor- und Forschungsprojekte hinaus anwendungsnah zum Einsatz kam. Er verfügt über sehr geringe Durchlassverluste und eine hohe Leistungsdichte. Seine Verwendung und Anwendung ist in mancher Hinsicht anders und unüblich im Vergleich zu den etablierten leistungselektronischen Bauelementen wie IGBT und MOSFET. Der Siliciumkarbid Bipolartransistor, also der SiC-BJT, ist ein stromgesteuertes Bauteil, weswegen der Aufwand für die Treiber sehr hoch ist. Die praktische Arbeit im Rahmen des Forschungsprojektes „COSIVU“ mit den SiC-BJTs in Verbindung mit dem fertigen integrierten Invertersystem hat unter anderem gezeigt, dass es mehr eine Verschiebung der Anforderungen von der Leistungselektronik hin zu den Treibern für die Leistungselektronik ist. Unter Betrachtung der Verluste des gesamten Systems, einschließlich der Motor-, Treiber- und Steuerverluste, hat das fertige Prototyp-Invertersystem, welches durchaus noch Potential zur Optimierung besaß, eine deutliche Verbesserung des Wirkungsgrades erreicht. Gegenüber dem auf IGBT basierenden Referenz-Invertersystem, hat das COSIVU Invertersystem eine Verbesserung des Wirkungsgrades um 40-60 % erreicht. Eine Erkenntnis aus dem Forschungsprojekt in Bezug auf Zuverlässigkeit und mögliche Fehler und Defekte ist, dass der Chip selbst zwar ziemlich robust ist, aber dass die Gehäuse-, Aufbau- und Verbindungstechnik angepasst und verbessert werden sollte. Thermische Impedanzspektroskopie ist eine Methode um Verschlechterungen im Kühlpfad eines leistungselektronischen Halbleiters zu erkennen, was ein Kriterium für die Alterung des Bauteils ist. Eine Methode zur Bestimmung der Sperrschichttemperatur von SiC-BJTs während des normalen Durchlassbetriebes wird in dieser Arbeit vorgestellt. Die Platine für die thermische Impedanzspektroskopie wurde entwickelt, um die Messung in einem laborfernen Aufbau in einer echten Inverteranwendung durchzuführen. Zudem wurden die Platinenaufbauten auf sehr kleiner Fläche realisiert. Die Integration musste nämlich sehr kompakt gestaltet werden, da es sich um ein „in-wheel“ Motor-Inverter-System handelt, was zum größten Teil innerhalb eines Fahrzeugrades untergebracht ist.

Dans ce travail, l'approche non-paramétrique par noyaux associés mixtes multivariés est présentée pour les fonctions de densités, de masse de probabilité et de régressions à supports partiellement ou totalement discrets et continus. Pour cela, quelques aspects essentiels des notions d'estimation par noyaux continus (dits classiques) multivariés et par noyaux associés univariés (discrets et continus) sont d'abord rappelés. Les problèmes de supports sont alors révisés ainsi qu'une résolution des effets de bords dans les cas des noyaux associés univariés. Le noyau associé multivarié est ensuite défini et une méthode de leur construction dite mode-dispersion multivarié est proposée. Il s'ensuit une illustration dans le cas continu utilisant le noyau bêta bivarié avec ou sans structure de corrélation de type Sarmanov. Les propriétés des estimateurs telles que les biais, les variances et les erreurs quadratiques moyennes sont également étudiées. Un algorithme de réduction du biais est alors proposé et illustré sur ce même noyau avec structure de corrélation. Des études par simulations et applications avec le noyau bêta bivarié avec structure de corrélation sont aussi présentées. Trois formes de matrices des fenêtres, à savoir, pleine, Scott et diagonale, y sont utilisées puis leurs performances relatives sont discutées. De plus, des noyaux associés multiples ont été efficaces dans le cadre de l'analyse discriminante. Pour cela, on a utilisé les noyaux univariés binomial, catégoriel, triangulaire discret, gamma et bêta. Par la suite, les noyaux associés avec ou sans structure de corrélation ont été étudiés dans le cadre de la régression multiple. En plus des noyaux univariés ci-dessus, les noyaux bivariés avec ou sans structure de corrélation ont été aussi pris en compte. Les études par simulations montrent l'importance et les bonnes performances du choix des noyaux associés multivariés à matrice de lissage pleine ou diagonale. Puis, les noyaux associés continus et discrets sont combinés pour définir les noyaux associés mixtes univariés. Les travaux ont aussi donné lieu à la création d'un package R pour l'estimation de fonctions univariés de densités, de masse de probabilité et de régression. Plusieurs méthodes de sélections de fenêtres optimales y sont implémentées avec une interface facile d'utilisation. Tout au long de ce travail, la sélection des matrices de lissage se fait généralement par validation croisée et parfois par les méthodes bayésiennes. Enfin, des compléments sur les constantes de normalisations des estimateurs à noyaux associés des fonctions de densité et de masse de probabilité sont présentés. / This work is about nonparametric approach using multivariate mixed associated kernels for densities, probability mass functions and regressions estimation having supports partially or totally discrete and continuous. Some key aspects of kernel estimation using multivariate continuous (classical) and (discrete and continuous) univariate associated kernels are recalled. Problem of supports are also revised as well as a resolution of boundary effects for univariate associated kernels. The multivariate associated kernel is then defined and a construction by multivariate mode-dispersion method is provided. This leads to an illustration on the bivariate beta kernel with Sarmanov's correlation structure in continuous case. Properties of these estimators are studied, such as the bias, variances and mean squared errors. An algorithm for reducing the bias is proposed and illustrated on this bivariate beta kernel. Simulations studies and applications are then performed with bivariate beta kernel. Three types of bandwidth matrices, namely, full, Scott and diagonal are used. Furthermore, appropriated multiple associated kernels are used in a practical discriminant analysis task. These are the binomial, categorical, discrete triangular, gamma and beta. Thereafter, associated kernels with or without correlation structure are used in multiple regression. In addition to the previous univariate associated kernels, bivariate beta kernels with or without correlation structure are taken into account. Simulations studies show the performance of the choice of associated kernels with full or diagonal bandwidth matrices. Then, (discrete and continuous) associated kernels are combined to define mixed univariate associated kernels. Using the tools of unification of discrete and continuous analysis, the properties of the mixed associated kernel estimators are shown. This is followed by an R package, created in univariate case, for densities, probability mass functions and regressions estimations. Several smoothing parameter selections are implemented via an easy-to-use interface. Throughout the paper, bandwidth matrix selections are generally obtained using cross-validation and sometimes Bayesian methods. Finally, some additionnal informations on normalizing constants of associated kernel estimators are presented for densities or probability mass functions.

No description available.

The study is intended to identify relevant channels and possibly biasing factors with respect to fiscal multipliers, and thus to contribute to improving the precision of multiplier forecasts. This is done by, first, defining the concept of the multiplier used in the present study, presenting the main theoretical channels of influence as discussed in the literature and the problems of empirical identification. Second, by conducting a meta-regression analysis on the reported multipliers from a unique data set of 1069 multiplier observations and the respective study characteristics in order to derive quantitative stylzed facts. Third, by developing a simple multiplier model that explicitly takes into account the time elapse of the multiplier process as an explanatory factor that has been largely overlooked by the relevant theoretical literature. Fourth, by identifying, for US macroeconomic time series data, the extent to which fiscal multiplier estimates could be biased in the presence of financial cycles that have not been taken into account by the relevant empirical literature.:List of Figures IV List of Tables VI List of Acronyms VII List of Symbols IX 1 General Introduction, Aim and Scope 2 Principles of the Measurement, Theory and Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers 2.1 Introduction 7 2.2 Definition and Measurement of the Fiscal Multiplier 7 2.3 Determinants of the Fiscal Multiplier 14 2.4 Principles of Estimating Fiscal Multipliers 29 2.5 Conclusions 38 3 A Meta-Regression Analysis of Fiscal Multipliers 43 3.1 Introduction 43 3.2 Literature Review 45 3.3 Data Set and Descriptive Statistics 49 3.4 Meta Regression—Method 54 3.5 Meta Regression—Moderator Variables 56 3.6 Meta Regression—Results 60 3.7 Conclusions 74 4 The Multiplier Principle, Credit-Money and Time 82 4.1 Introduction 82 4.2 Literature Review 85 4.3 Developing an Augmented Multiplier Model 89 4.4 Dynamic Stability of the Multiplier Process 106 4.5 Identifying the Lag-length 109 4.6 Conclusions 111 5 Financial Cycles and Fiscal Multiplier Estimations 114 5.1 Introduction 114 5.2 Literature Review 116 5.3 Asset and Credit Markets and Fiscal Multiplier Estimations 118 5.4 A Formal Framework 120 5.5 Empirical Strategy 124 5.6 Data 125 5.7 Structure and Identification 126 5.8 Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes—Baseline vs. Augmented Models 132 5.9 Robustness 140 5.10 Conclusions 142 6 General Conclusions and Research Prospects 148 Bibliography 153