Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T18:40:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Jose Antonio Caseiro Vicente.pdf: 2127455 bytes, checksum: 48d6f33426ae9433d1eb7fa2c113a426 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-06-27 / After the intervention of the federal government, with the announcement of the Provisional Act no. 579 of September 11, 2012, converted into Law no. 12.783, on January 11, 2013, there was a change in the rule for renewal of concessions to be expired between 2015 and 2017, and the perception of the increase and the importance of regulatory risk. This dissertation aimed to examine how the companies operating in the Brazilian electricity sector are addressing regulatory risk in the context of corporate governance. In order to achieve this, a qualitative research, including an initial sample of sixty-six (66) companies, was developed. Based on the highest levels of commitment to corporate governance and sustainability according to the São Paulo Stock Exchange, a careful selection was then made, resulting in nine (9) companies to develop the study. It is worth mentioning that such companies have representativeness and integrate the BOVESPA Energy Index (IEE). Primary data was obtained through interviews with eight (08) risk managers, and then compared to secondary data collected from reports released and published in the capital market, making it possible to identify and analyze how regulatory risk is being managed in the process of risk management. Once the key contribution of this dissertation was to provide a broad overview and reflection of the Brazilian reality on the evolution of form and structure that regulatory risk is managed in the corporate governance process, it is suggested that the knowledge process of risk governance be strengthened, as well as the risks be treated according to the productive segments of the Brazilian electricity sector. In conclusion, there is not a closed and definitive model; it is proposed that the risk management processes be reviewed in order to identify and quantify the acceptable levels and the vulnerability of risks when allied with strategic objectives by presenting relevant issues for future studies related to regulatory risks and the ongoing process of intelligence risk / Após a intervenção do governo federal, com o anúncio da Medida Provisória nº. 579, de 11 de setembro de 2012, convertida em Lei nº. 12.783, em 11 de janeiro de 2013, houve alteração na regra de renovação das concessões com vencimento no período de 2015 a 2017 e a percepção do aumento e da importância de risco regulatório. Esta dissertação teve como principal objetivo analisar como as empresas do segmento elétrico brasileiro estão tratando o risco regulatório no âmbito da governança corporativa. Para isto, foi desenvolvida uma pesquisa qualitativa, que se iniciou com uma amostra de sessenta e seis (66) empresas. Na sequência fez-se uma seleção criteriosa, com base nos mais altos índices de comprometimento de governança corporativa e sustentabilidade junto à Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo, da qual resultaram nove (09) companhias para o desenvolvimento do estudo, sendo que estas empresas possuem representatividade e participam do Índice de Energia Elétrica da BOVESPA. Os dados primários foram obtidos por meio de entrevistas junto a oito (08) gestores de riscos e da comparação das informações reportadas com os dados secundários obtidos nos relatórios divulgados e publicados junto ao mercado de capitais, foi possível identificar e analisar como o risco regulatório está sendo administrado em seu processo de gestão de riscos. Como a contribuição desta dissertação foi gerar uma ampla visão e reflexão da realidade brasileira na evolução da forma e estrutura que é gerenciado o risco regulatório no processo de governança corporativa, sugere-se a necessidade de se reforçar o processo de conhecimento do risk governance e o tratamento dos riscos por segmentação produtiva do setor elétrico brasileiro. Conclui-se que não existe um modelo fechado e definitivo; propõe-se a realização de uma revisão dos processos de gerenciamento de riscos, para identificar e quantificar os níveis aceitáveis e a vulnerabilidades dos riscos aliados aos objetivos estratégicos, com apresentação de questões para estudos futuros voltados aos riscos regulatórios e ao processo continuo da inteligência de riscos

The increasing share of renewable energies in the power sector influences the economic viability of investments in new conventional power plants. Many studies have investigated these issues by considering power plant operation or the long-term development of the power plant fleet. However, power plant decommissioning, investment and operation are intrinsically linked. This doctoral thesis therefore presents a modelling framework for an integrated consideration of power plant decommissioning, investment and operation. In a case study focusing on Germany, the effects of the integration of renewable energies on power plant decommissioning, investment and operation are evaluated in the context of different assumptions regarding the remaining lifetime of nuclear power plants. With regard to the use of nuclear power, a phase-out scenario and a scenario with lifetime extension of nuclear power plants (by on average 12 years) are considered. The results show that static decommissioning (i.e. considering fixed technical lifetimes) underestimates the capacity available in the power sector in the scenario without lifetime extension since retrofit measures (versus decommissioning) are not taken into account. In contrast, capacity available in the case of nuclear lifetime extension is overestimated since mothballing (versus regular operation) is not considered. If the impact on decommissioning decisions of profit margins accrued during power plant operation are considered (“dynamic decommissioning”), the electricity price reduction effect due to a lifetime extension is reduced by more than half in comparison to static decommissioning. Scarcity situations do not differ significantly between the scenarios with and without lifetime extension with dynamic decommissioning; in contrast, there is a significantly higher need for imports without lifetime extension with static decommissioning. The case study demonstrates that further system flexibility is needed for the integration of renewable energies. It can be further concluded that the share of flexible power plants is higher with the phase-out of nuclear power plants. With regard to the decommissioning dynamics, the phase-out can be considered as beneficial for the economic viability of fossil power plants. Furthermore, the phase-out does not, overall, lead to environmental disadvantages in the medium term, but may be beneficial in the long run since lock-in effects are avoided. Further research is required with regard to the consideration of future flexibility options and a new market design. / Der steigende Anteil erneuerbarer Energien beeinflusst die Wirtschaftlichkeit von Investitionen in neue konventionelle Kraftwerke. Zahlreiche Studien haben diese Aspekte in Bezug auf den Kraftwerksbetrieb oder die langfristige Entwicklung des Kraftwerksparks untersucht. Stilllegungen, Investitionen und Betrieb im Kraftwerkspark bedingen jedoch einander. Aus diesem Grund wird in dieser Doktorarbeit ein Modellierungsansatz für eine integrierte Betrachtung von Kraftwerksstilllegung, -investition und -betrieb vorgestellt. In einer Fallstudie für Deutschland werden die Auswirkungen einer Integration erneuerbarer Energien auf Kraftwerksstilllegung, -investition und -betrieb im Zusammenhang mit unterschiedlichen Annahmen über die Restlaufzeit von Kernkraftwerken untersucht. Bezogen auf die Nutzung der Kernenergie wird hierbei ein Ausstiegsszenario sowie ein Laufzeitverlängerungsszenario (Verlän-gerung der Laufzeit um durchschnittlich 12 Jahre) betrachtet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die statische Stilllegung (d.h. die Betrachtung fester technischer Lebensdauern) im Fall eines Verzichts auf die Laufzeitverlängerung die im Kraftwerkspark verfügbare Leistung unterschätzt, da Retrofit-Maßnahmen (im Vergleich zur Stilllegung) nicht berücksichtigt werden. Die verfügbare Leistung im Falle einer Laufzeitverlängerung wird dagegen überschätzt, da die Möglichkeit der Kaltreserve (im Vergleich zum regulären Betrieb) vernachlässigt wird. Werden die Rückwirkungen der im Betrieb erwirtschaftbaren Deckungsbeiträge auf Stilllegungsentscheidungen (“dynamische Stilllegung”) betrachtet, so wird der strompreissenkende Effekt durch die Laufzeitverlängerung im Vergleich zur statischen Stilllegung mehr als halbiert. Knappheitssitutationen unterscheiden sich nicht wesentlich mit und ohne Laufzeitverlängerung im Fall der dynamischen Stilllegung, während bei statischer Stilllegung ohne Laufzeitzeitverlängerung ein deutlich größerer Importbedarf besteht. Die Fallstudie zeigt, dass weitere Systemflexibilitäten für die Integration erneuerbarer Energien benötigt werden. Der Anteil flexibler Kraftwerke ist größer im Fall des Kernenergieausstiegs. Der Kernenergieausstieg wirkt sich in Bezug auf die Stilllegungsdynamik positiv auf die Wirtschaftlichkeit fossiler Kraftwerke aus. Insgesamt führt der Kernenergieausstieg zu keinen mittelfristig nachteiligen Umwelteffekten, er kann sich jedoch langfristig positiv auswirken, da Lock-in-Effekte vermieden werden. Es besteht weiterer Forschungsbedarf in Bezug auf die Berücksichtigung künftiger Flexibilitätsoptionen und ein neues Marktdesign.

La problématique de cette thèse porte sur les conditions technico-économiques et sociales d’émergence des techniques de Captage, transport et Stockage géologique du Carbone (CSC) dans le secteur électrique. Il existe effectivement un hiatus entre le niveau actuel de déploiement du CSC et son rôle dans les scénarii climatique de long terme. Les travaux s’appuient sur deux approches complémentaires ; l’approche positive met en exergue les déterminants économiques et sociaux nécessaires à l’émergence du CSC et répond à deux interrogations : pour quel prix du CO2 devient-il intéressant d’investir dans des centrales CSC ? Quand l’usage du CSC est-il socialement optimal ? Sur le plan normatif, diverses recommandations relatives au déploiement optimal du CSC sont apportées. Elles concernent notamment le portefeuille optimal d’instruments de soutien au CSC. Cette thèse s’articule en quatre chapitres. Dans l’optique de minimiser les coûts de la transition énergétique, les deux premiers chapitres embrassent la vision investisseur et mettent en évidence les déterminants économiques indispensables au déploiement commercial du CSC. Les deux derniers chapitres adoptent la vision de la puissance publique. Bien que compétitive, une technologie peut ne pas se développer du fait de problèmes d’acceptabilité sociale ; c’est l’objet du modèle du Chapitre 3. Le Chapitre 4 élargit le propos et intègre la problématique de décision dans le CSC en univers ambigu, en s’appuyant sur des simulations numériques. / This thesis analyses the techno-economic and social conditions required for the emergence of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) techniques in the power sector, in compliance with CCS role in long-term mitigation scenarios. The research combines two complementary approaches: the positive one deals with the economic and social determinants necessary to trigger CCS investments, and addresses two significant issues: (1) for which CO2 price is it worth investing in CCS plants, and (2) when is CCS use socially optimal? The normative approach gives recommendations on how CCS can best be deployed as part of a least cost approach to climate change mitigation. Notably, recommendations are provided about the optimal combination of CCS policy supports that should be implemented. This Ph.D. dissertation is composed of four chapters. The first two chapters embrace the investor’s vision and highlight the determinants necessary for CCS commercial emergence. The last two chapters embrace the public decision-makers’ vision. Based on the fact that, although cost-effective, one technology may not be deployed because of social acceptance issues, Chapter 3 deals with CCS public acceptance and optimal pollution. Chapter 4 goes further and addresses the optimal CCS investment under ambiguity by providing a decision criterion with simulations on the European Union’s 2050 Energy Roadmap.

O setor elétrico brasileiro é composto, majoritariamente, por usinas hidrelétricas, cuja operação é realizada de forma centralizada pelo Operador Nacional do Sistema (ONS). Devido às características do setor, foi criado durante a década de 1990 o Mecanismo de Realocação de Energia (MRE) com o intuito de compartilhar o risco hidrológico entre as usinas participantes deste mecanismo, o qual é medido pelo Generation Scaling Factor (GSF). Entre os anos de 2014 e 2015, o Brasil enfrentou um período de escassez hídrica que impactou negativamente o caixa dos geradores hídricos. Estes, insatisfeitos com o cenário, articularam-se junto à Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL) e ao Ministério de Minas e Energia (MME) para que o risco hidrológico fosse transferido para os consumidores. A agência reguladora posicionou-se contrária ao pleito dos geradores na primeira fase da Audiência Pública 32/2015, que tratou do tema em questão, entretanto o governo editou a Medida Provisória 688/2015 que possibilitou a repactuação do risco hidrológico mediante um pagamento de prêmio de risco pelos geradores hídricos. Neste contexto, esta dissertação foi desenvolvida com o objetivo principal de avaliar o processo de repactuação do risco hidrológico, a partir dos estudos sobre a evolução da Teoria da Regulação, com foco na atuação dos grupos de interesse. Os resultados indicam possibilidade em aplicar os pressupostos da Teoria dos Grupos de Interesse, principalmente a abordagem de Pelztman (1976), no processo de repactuação do risco hidrológico, demonstrando que: (i) a regulação surge como demanda dos grupos de interesse; (ii) a regulação tende a beneficiar os grupos de interesse que forem mais ativos politicamente; (iii) os agentes envolvidos no processo de regulação atuam para maximizar sua própria utilidade; e (iv) a regulação tende a beneficiar grupos de interesse cujo benefício per capita seja maior. / The Brazilian Power sector consists of hydroelectric plants, whose operation is performed centrally by the mainly National System Operator. Due to the system characteristics, during the 1990s, was created the Energy Reallocation Mechanism in order to share hydrological risk among mechanism\'s participating, which is measured by the Generation Scaling Factor (GSF). Between 2014 and 2015, Brazil faced a water scarcity period that negatively affected the hydropower generators revenue. The generators unsatisfied with this situation have started seek to influence the electricity regulatory agency and the Ministry of Mines and Energy in order to transferred the hydrologic risk to consumers. The regulatory agency has positioned itself against the claim of the generators in the first phase of the Public Hearing 32/2015, but the government has published Interim Measure 688/2015 which allowed the renegotiation of the hydrological risk through a premium risk payment by hydropower generators. In this context, this work was developed with the main objective of analysing the renegotiation process of hydrological risk, such analysis was based on the evolution of regulation theory studies, focusing on the role of interest groups. The results indicate the possibility of applying the assumptions of Theory of Economics Regulation, mainly the Pelztman (1976) approach, on the renegotiation of the hydrological risk process demonstrating that: (i) regulation is supplied in reponse to the interest groups demand for regulation; (ii) regulation is most likely to benefit the interest groups that are more active politically; (iii) agents involved in the regulatory process act to maximize their own utility; and (iv) regulation trends to benefit interest groups which highest per capita benefit.

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No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação-Carla-Schuchmann 20180604.pdf: 2181890 bytes, checksum: f3dde4e5e6e77e830fb82af06a0755da (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-07-04 / Se, por um lado, o meio ambiente é fundamental para o crescimento econômico no modelo capitalista, as crises ambientais, devido ao não respeito dos limites planetários, representam uma ameaça para humanidade. As empresas são cobradas para contribuir com a solução desse problema, por historicamente terem contribuído para essa situação. Por outro lado, ainda existem poucos estudos que tratam a sustentabilidade empresarial e seus impactos para melhorar a qualidade do meio ambiente (WHITEMAN, WALKER E PEREGO, 2013). Este estudo buscou avaliar se as estratégias de sustentabilidade do setor elétrico estão alinhadas aos principais desafios ambientais da atualidade. Para definir esses desafios, o estudo se baseou, principalmente, na teoria dos limites planetários de Steffen et al. (2015). Além de revisões bibliográficas, também foi realizada uma análise Multi Estudos de Casos, que contou com análises documentais (websites e relatórios de sustentabilidade) e entrevistas com três líderes da estratégia de sustentabilidade de empresas do setor elétrico, que são referências no tema (estão na carteira do ISE). Como resultado desse estudo, observou-se que, dos nove limites planetários (mudança do clima, integridade da biosfera, redução da camada de ozônio, acidificação dos oceanos, uso de água doce, fluxo bioquímico (nitrogênio e fósforo), alteração no território , carga de aerossol atmosférico e novos contaminantes), seis deles (mudança do clima, integridade da biosfera, alteração no território, uso de água doce, carga de aerossol atmosférico e novos contaminantes) tiveram historicamente o setor elétrico como uma de suas principais ameaças. Dois desses temas (mudança do clima e novos contaminantes) são considerados prioritários por todas as empresas estudadas. No entanto, quando se analisa o alinhamento das empresas para enfrentar os principais impactos causados pelo setor nos limítes planetários, observa-se que: I) todos os impactos relacionados ao tema ‘alteração no território’ são geridos por, ao menos, uma estratégia de cada empresa estudada; II) todos os impactos relacionados a uso de água doces e carga de aerossóis atmosféricos são gerenciados por uma ou duas das empresas estudadas; III) um ou mais impactos relacionados aos temas ‘mudança do clima’, ‘integridade da biosfera’ e ‘novos contaminantes’ não são gerenciados pela estratégia de sustentabilidade de nenhuma empresa estudada. Ao final, são sugeridos alguns estudos futuros relacionados aos temas estudados. / The environment is essential for economic growth in capitalism. In contrast, environmental crisis, due to not respecting planetary boundaries, represent a threat to humanity. Corporations are charged to help solving this problem, since historically they were the contributors of this issue. Nonetheless, there still are few studies that deal with corporate sustainability and its impacts to improve environment quality (Whiteman, Walker and Perego, 2013). This paper tried to evaluate if the sustainable strategies within the Brazilian electric Power companies are aligned with the main environmental challenges of current times. To describe these challenges, this research was mainly based on the planetary boundaries theory , done by Steffen et al. (2015). Among several bibliographic reviews, it was done a an Multiple Case Study analysis, that took into account documental reviews (websites and sustainability reports), interviews with three sustainable strategy leaders from benchmark companies of the Brazilian electric power sector (present at ISE portfolio).As a result of this research, it was realized that out of the nine planetary boundaries described (climate change, biosphere integrity, stratospheric ozone depletion, ocean acidification, freshwater use, biochemical flows (nitrogen and phosphorus), land-system change, atmospheric aerossol loading, novel entities) , the electric power sector represents a historically threat over six of them (climate change, biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use, atmospheric aerossol and novel entities). The companies studied consider as a priority two of these boundaries (climate change and novel entities). Notwithstanding that, observing these companies alignment to deal with these main impacts caused by the electric sector Power on the boundaries, we can point that: I) all companies have their own strategies to manage all impacts on land-system change ; II) at least one company manages each freshwater use or atmospheric aerossol loading impacts; III) one or more impacts caused by climate change, biospheric integrity or novel entities are not dealt with any of these companies. It is possible to conclude that sustainable strategies among the Brazilian eletric power sector companies are partially aligned with the main environmental challenges of current times. Lastly, futures studies related to these cases are suggested.

O setor elétrico brasileiro é composto, majoritariamente, por usinas hidrelétricas, cuja operação é realizada de forma centralizada pelo Operador Nacional do Sistema (ONS). Devido às características do setor, foi criado durante a década de 1990 o Mecanismo de Realocação de Energia (MRE) com o intuito de compartilhar o risco hidrológico entre as usinas participantes deste mecanismo, o qual é medido pelo Generation Scaling Factor (GSF). Entre os anos de 2014 e 2015, o Brasil enfrentou um período de escassez hídrica que impactou negativamente o caixa dos geradores hídricos. Estes, insatisfeitos com o cenário, articularam-se junto à Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL) e ao Ministério de Minas e Energia (MME) para que o risco hidrológico fosse transferido para os consumidores. A agência reguladora posicionou-se contrária ao pleito dos geradores na primeira fase da Audiência Pública 32/2015, que tratou do tema em questão, entretanto o governo editou a Medida Provisória 688/2015 que possibilitou a repactuação do risco hidrológico mediante um pagamento de prêmio de risco pelos geradores hídricos. Neste contexto, esta dissertação foi desenvolvida com o objetivo principal de avaliar o processo de repactuação do risco hidrológico, a partir dos estudos sobre a evolução da Teoria da Regulação, com foco na atuação dos grupos de interesse. Os resultados indicam possibilidade em aplicar os pressupostos da Teoria dos Grupos de Interesse, principalmente a abordagem de Pelztman (1976), no processo de repactuação do risco hidrológico, demonstrando que: (i) a regulação surge como demanda dos grupos de interesse; (ii) a regulação tende a beneficiar os grupos de interesse que forem mais ativos politicamente; (iii) os agentes envolvidos no processo de regulação atuam para maximizar sua própria utilidade; e (iv) a regulação tende a beneficiar grupos de interesse cujo benefício per capita seja maior. / The Brazilian Power sector consists of hydroelectric plants, whose operation is performed centrally by the mainly National System Operator. Due to the system characteristics, during the 1990s, was created the Energy Reallocation Mechanism in order to share hydrological risk among mechanism\'s participating, which is measured by the Generation Scaling Factor (GSF). Between 2014 and 2015, Brazil faced a water scarcity period that negatively affected the hydropower generators revenue. The generators unsatisfied with this situation have started seek to influence the electricity regulatory agency and the Ministry of Mines and Energy in order to transferred the hydrologic risk to consumers. The regulatory agency has positioned itself against the claim of the generators in the first phase of the Public Hearing 32/2015, but the government has published Interim Measure 688/2015 which allowed the renegotiation of the hydrological risk through a premium risk payment by hydropower generators. In this context, this work was developed with the main objective of analysing the renegotiation process of hydrological risk, such analysis was based on the evolution of regulation theory studies, focusing on the role of interest groups. The results indicate the possibility of applying the assumptions of Theory of Economics Regulation, mainly the Pelztman (1976) approach, on the renegotiation of the hydrological risk process demonstrating that: (i) regulation is supplied in reponse to the interest groups demand for regulation; (ii) regulation is most likely to benefit the interest groups that are more active politically; (iii) agents involved in the regulatory process act to maximize their own utility; and (iv) regulation trends to benefit interest groups which highest per capita benefit.

This dissertation thesis touches on some important aspects of development, including financial development and improved access to reliable energy sources, regional integration and expanded opportunities for trade. This thesis was written to help guide policy reforms especially in developing countries to expand sources of growth and put countries on track to better meet their long-term development goals, including a better and more sustainable future for everyone. This dissertation consists of three papers. In the first paper I investigate the empirical evidence on the relationship between financial development and economic growth. In doing so, I assessed over 270 studies for their potential inclusion in a meta-analysis. From those studies that contained an empirical estimate of the finance growth relationship, I compiled 1,334 coefficients and coded study characteristics for each. Taking the reported estimates together, I find a positive link between financial development and economic growth, but with widely varying individual estimates. By applying a multi-variate meta-regression, I explain the variation in reported results, stemming not only from differences in research design (by authors addressing or ignoring potential endogeneity issues) but also from real drivers (different regional and time...

The increasing share of renewable energies in the power sector influences the economic viability of investments in new conventional power plants. Many studies have investigated these issues by considering power plant operation or the long-term development of the power plant fleet. However, power plant decommissioning, investment and operation are intrinsically linked. This doctoral thesis therefore presents a modelling framework for an integrated consideration of power plant decommissioning, investment and operation. In a case study focusing on Germany, the effects of the integration of renewable energies on power plant decommissioning, investment and operation are evaluated in the context of different assumptions regarding the remaining lifetime of nuclear power plants. With regard to the use of nuclear power, a phase-out scenario and a scenario with lifetime extension of nuclear power plants (by on average 12 years) are considered. The results show that static decommissioning (i.e. considering fixed technical lifetimes) underestimates the capacity available in the power sector in the scenario without lifetime extension since retrofit measures (versus decommissioning) are not taken into account. In contrast, capacity available in the case of nuclear lifetime extension is overestimated since mothballing (versus regular operation) is not considered. If the impact on decommissioning decisions of profit margins accrued during power plant operation are considered (“dynamic decommissioning”), the electricity price reduction effect due to a lifetime extension is reduced by more than half in comparison to static decommissioning. Scarcity situations do not differ significantly between the scenarios with and without lifetime extension with dynamic decommissioning; in contrast, there is a significantly higher need for imports without lifetime extension with static decommissioning. The case study demonstrates that further system flexibility is needed for the integration of renewable energies. It can be further concluded that the share of flexible power plants is higher with the phase-out of nuclear power plants. With regard to the decommissioning dynamics, the phase-out can be considered as beneficial for the economic viability of fossil power plants. Furthermore, the phase-out does not, overall, lead to environmental disadvantages in the medium term, but may be beneficial in the long run since lock-in effects are avoided. Further research is required with regard to the consideration of future flexibility options and a new market design. / Der steigende Anteil erneuerbarer Energien beeinflusst die Wirtschaftlichkeit von Investitionen in neue konventionelle Kraftwerke. Zahlreiche Studien haben diese Aspekte in Bezug auf den Kraftwerksbetrieb oder die langfristige Entwicklung des Kraftwerksparks untersucht. Stilllegungen, Investitionen und Betrieb im Kraftwerkspark bedingen jedoch einander. Aus diesem Grund wird in dieser Doktorarbeit ein Modellierungsansatz für eine integrierte Betrachtung von Kraftwerksstilllegung, -investition und -betrieb vorgestellt. In einer Fallstudie für Deutschland werden die Auswirkungen einer Integration erneuerbarer Energien auf Kraftwerksstilllegung, -investition und -betrieb im Zusammenhang mit unterschiedlichen Annahmen über die Restlaufzeit von Kernkraftwerken untersucht. Bezogen auf die Nutzung der Kernenergie wird hierbei ein Ausstiegsszenario sowie ein Laufzeitverlängerungsszenario (Verlän-gerung der Laufzeit um durchschnittlich 12 Jahre) betrachtet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die statische Stilllegung (d.h. die Betrachtung fester technischer Lebensdauern) im Fall eines Verzichts auf die Laufzeitverlängerung die im Kraftwerkspark verfügbare Leistung unterschätzt, da Retrofit-Maßnahmen (im Vergleich zur Stilllegung) nicht berücksichtigt werden. Die verfügbare Leistung im Falle einer Laufzeitverlängerung wird dagegen überschätzt, da die Möglichkeit der Kaltreserve (im Vergleich zum regulären Betrieb) vernachlässigt wird. Werden die Rückwirkungen der im Betrieb erwirtschaftbaren Deckungsbeiträge auf Stilllegungsentscheidungen (“dynamische Stilllegung”) betrachtet, so wird der strompreissenkende Effekt durch die Laufzeitverlängerung im Vergleich zur statischen Stilllegung mehr als halbiert. Knappheitssitutationen unterscheiden sich nicht wesentlich mit und ohne Laufzeitverlängerung im Fall der dynamischen Stilllegung, während bei statischer Stilllegung ohne Laufzeitzeitverlängerung ein deutlich größerer Importbedarf besteht. Die Fallstudie zeigt, dass weitere Systemflexibilitäten für die Integration erneuerbarer Energien benötigt werden. Der Anteil flexibler Kraftwerke ist größer im Fall des Kernenergieausstiegs. Der Kernenergieausstieg wirkt sich in Bezug auf die Stilllegungsdynamik positiv auf die Wirtschaftlichkeit fossiler Kraftwerke aus. Insgesamt führt der Kernenergieausstieg zu keinen mittelfristig nachteiligen Umwelteffekten, er kann sich jedoch langfristig positiv auswirken, da Lock-in-Effekte vermieden werden. Es besteht weiterer Forschungsbedarf in Bezug auf die Berücksichtigung künftiger Flexibilitätsoptionen und ein neues Marktdesign.