Submitted by Joana Azevedo (joanad@id.uff.br) on 2017-09-01T15:21:02Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert Eduardo de Assumpção Silva.pdf: 1604099 bytes, checksum: 47a7b2843f5729ca0a320602bc1c384e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Biblioteca da Escola de Engenharia (bee@ndc.uff.br) on 2017-09-04T13:30:26Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert Eduardo de Assumpção Silva.pdf: 1604099 bytes, checksum: 47a7b2843f5729ca0a320602bc1c384e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-04T13:30:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert Eduardo de Assumpção Silva.pdf: 1604099 bytes, checksum: 47a7b2843f5729ca0a320602bc1c384e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-07-18 / A ciência e a tecnologia têm relação direta com o desenvolvimento de um país. Os projetos de pesquisa e desenvolvimento na CNEN são financiados pelos recursos diretos do orçamento da União e das Agências de Fomento como a FINEP e o CNPq. De um modo geral os gerentes de projetos acreditam que conseguem ter sucesso quando completam um projeto no prazo programado, no orçamento e nos requisitos previstos, que é comumente conhecido como “restrição tripla” ou “triângulo de ferro”. Entretanto, na revisão da literatura verificou-se outros critérios de avaliação do sucesso nos projetos, como os benefícios gerados à sociedade, o desenvolvimento das capacidades da equipe, as oportunidades futuras, novas tecnologias, entre outros. Diante dessa questão, buscando auxiliar o gestor na avaliação dessa tipologia de projetos, a pesquisa propôs um modelo com critérios e requisitos baseado na revisão da literatura e buscou através de um questionário medir os graus de importância e de utilização desses critérios junto aos especialistas da CNEN, que atuam diretamente na execução desses projetos. Os resultados revelaram que os critérios propostos no modelo possuem um grau de importância alto, com uma queda em relação à utilização, indicando que os critérios utilizados no modelo podem auxiliar os gestores na avaliação dessa tipologia de projeto. / Science and technology are directly related to the development of a country. The research and development projects at CNEN are financed by the direct resources of the budget of the Union and of the Development Agencies such as FINEP and CNPq. In general, project managers believe they can succeed when they complete a project within the programmed schedule, budget, and anticipated requirements, which is commonly known as a "triple constraint" or "iron triangle." However, in the review of the literature, other criteria for evaluation of success in projects, such as the benefits generated by society, the development of the team's capabilities, future opportunities, new technologies, among others, were verified. Faced with this question, seeking to assist the manager in the evaluation of this typology of projects, the research proposed a model with criteria and requirements based on the literature review and sought through a questionnaire to measure the degrees of importance and use of these criteria with the specialists of CNEN , Which act directly in the execution of these projects. The results showed that the criteria proposed in the model have a high degree of importance, with a decrease in relation to the use, indicating that the criteria used in the model can help managers in the evaluation of this type of project.

本文的研究主題為利用實質選擇權的觀念，來協助手機ODM廠商計算並評估各種專案的投資效益，或採取適當的方法提高投資效益。 實質選擇權很適合用來分析具有高度不確定性的計畫的投資價值。一般的廠商自行做研發，是新產品研發的實質選擇權買方。但ODM廠商是幫客戶做研發，產品開發專案的決定權通常在客戶手上，ODM廠商變成新產品研發的實質選擇權賣方。所以要計算ODM廠商的研發專案的投資效益，會和傳統的方法不太一樣。 本文設計出一種分析方式，將ODM廠商提供的”設計與製造的整合服務”中間隱含新產品研發的選擇權賣權的成本估計出來。這些成本，會導致整個ODM的研發計畫的投資價值下降，尤其當產品風險高的時候更嚴重。研究結果發現風險愈高的產品越不適宜由ODM廠商來開發。風險較低的成熟產品則非常適合交給ODM廠商來開發。 另外本文利用這種分析方法，比較各種型式的手機專案的預期投資價值與機會成本，以提供管理者在比較與選擇不同專案時參考。也利用這種方法來分析手機ODM廠針對智慧型手機研發上的各種策略對投資價值的影響，以提供管理者在排定策略優先次序時參考。 / The Real Options approach has recently been growing in popularity in the valuation of R&D projects. It can help to evaluate the chances and risks of R&D investment by reflecting the values of of timing and operational flexibility. In most cases, these investments can be treated as “buying Real R&D Options”. However, the R&D projects of ODM (original design manufactor) companies are quite different. They “sell Real R&D Options” to their Brand-Name customers. To sell Options will increase the risks, so it’s definitely not free. This research utilizes the Real Options concept to evaluate the cost of these Real Options sold by Mobile Phone ODM companies to their customers. With this information, ODM companies can have a reasonable finaicial analysis before they sign the contacts based on market risks and opportunities. Futhermore, in this study we design a method to compare different types of projects based on the Real Options analysis. Companies can prioritize projects based on the results of the analysis. We also propose several approachs to increase the value of these R&D investments by reducing the cost of the Real R&D Options they sold.

[Truncated abstract] In an urban network, any change to the capacity of a road or an intersection will generally result in some traffic changing its route. In addition the presence of intersections creates the need for frequent stops. These stops increase the fuel consumption by anywhere between thirty to fifty percent as evidenced by published standardised vehicle fuel consumption figures for urban and for country driving. Other components of vehicle operating costs such as tyre and brake wear and time costs will also be increased by varying amounts. Yet almost all methods in use for economic evaluation of urban road projects use open road vehicle operating costs (sometimes factored to represent an average allowance for stopping at intersections) for one year or sometimes two years in the analysis period and then make assumptions about how the year by year road user benefits may change throughout the period in order to complete the analysis. This thesis will describe a system for estimating road user costs in an urban network that calculates intersection effects separately and then adds these effects to the travel costs of moving between intersections. Daily traffic estimates are used with a distribution of the flow rate throughout the twenty-four hours giving variable speed of travel according to the level of congestion at different times of the day. For each link, estimates of traffic flow at two points in time are used to estimate the year-by-year traffic flow throughout the analysis period by linear interpolation or extrapolation. The annual road user costs are then calculated from these estimates. Annual road user benefits are obtained by subtracting the annual road user costs for a modified network from the annual road user costs for an unmodified network. The change in the road network maintenance costs are estimated by applying an annual per lane maintenance cost to the change in lane-kilometres of road in the two networks. The Benefit Cost Ratio is calculated for three discount rates. An estimate of the likely range of error in the Benefit Cost Ratio is also calculated

This master´s thesis focuses on the design and realization of a property development project. This work describes the steps from the preliminary plan to the sale of an individual construction plot for construction. The primary objective of this master´s thesis is the evaluation of project efficiency.

Actualmente, la elección de proyectos de puentes considera solo el costo de construcción inicial, no considera los costos ocurridos a lo largo del ciclo de vida, como el costo de mantenimiento, y no consideran la afectación que genera la construcción y el mantenimiento del puente en el usuario. El puente Fortaleza, se encuentra intransitable desde el año 2017, por consecuencia del niño costero ocurrido en dicho año, que provocó que la cimentación del estribo derecho fallé por la erosión de la sección del río. Por lo que la presente tesis tiene como fin desarrollar la metodología de evaluación de proyectos de puentes LCCA (Life cycle cost analysis). El LCCA es una metodología de evaluación económica de proyectos de puentes, que combina sólidos conocimientos técnicos de transporte con un sólido conocimiento de análisis económico, que incluye en su análisis todos los costos relevantes que ocurren durante el ciclo de vida de un proyecto de puente. Los tres costos considerados son: costo de construcción, costo de mantenimiento y costo de usuario. Se cuantificó los costos y tiempos de construcción y mantenimiento de cada alternativa de sustitución. Y se cuantificó la afectación al usuario producto de los trabajos de construcción y mantenimiento sobre la vía del puente, lo que obligó a considerar un desvío de vehículos. Finalmente, se analizaron los datos obtenidos, para escoger la alternativa de sustitución de la superestructura, se realizó la verificación de la infraestructura existente y se desarrolló el diseño de la superestructura escogida. / Nowadays, the choice of bridge projects considers only the initial construction cost, does not consider the costs incurred throughout the life cycle, such as the cost of maintenance, and does not consider the impact generated in the user by the construction and maintenance of the bridge. The Fortaleza bridge has been closed since 2017, as a consequence of “Niño costero” phenomenon that occurred in that year, which caused the foundation of the right stirrup to fail due to the erosion of the river section. Therefore, this thesis aims to develop the methodology for evaluating LCCA (Life cycle cost analysis) bridge projects. The LCCA is a methodology for the economic evaluation of bridge projects, which combines solid transport technical knowledge with a solid knowledge of economic analysis, which includes in its analysis all the relevant costs that occur during the life cycle of a bridge project. The three costs considered are: construction cost, maintenance cost and user cost. The construction and maintenance costs and times of each replacement alternative were quantified. And the affectation to the user was quantified product of the construction and maintenance works on the bridge road, which forced to consider a desviation of vehicles. Finally, the data obtained were analyzed, to choose the replace alternative of the superstructure of the Fortaleza bridge, the existing infrastructure was verified and the design of the chosen superstructure was developed. / Tesis

Between 2013 and 2016, 8.1% of U.S. adults 20 years and older suffered from depression, but only 29% of them sought help. This project addressed the low depression screening rate in a Federally Qualified Health Center (FQHC) that supported integrated care. The purpose of the project was to evaluate the integration of behavioral health into primary care in an FQHC through the rate of depression screenings. Two theoretical frameworks, the find-organize-clarify-understand-select/plan-do-study-act model and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's framework for program evaluation in public health were combined into a list of questions and data validity tests that were used to conduct the evaluation. This quality improvement (QI) project evaluated an existing QI initiative. Findings revealed that 75% of the patients seen, and not the initially reported 53%, received depression screenings, which indicated an improved outcome. Other findings were inadequate use of theoretical frameworks, poor data quality, and suboptimal effectiveness of QI team processes. The strategies and tools recommended in this project could be used by organizational leaders and QI teams to evaluate and improve QI initiatives. The project's contribution to awareness about depression through integrated care could increase patients' access to care, quality of life, and life expectancy, and positively impact social change.

[pt] O objetivo desta pesquisa de mestrado relaciona-se à proposição de indicadores para orientar a construção de métricas de monitoramento da atividade de PeD visando a agregação de valor aos seus resultados e a sua transposição à inovação. Na qualidade de Gerente do Programa de PeD da Light frente à Aneel, a motivação para desenvolvimento do trabalho reflete o interesse do autor em contribuir para que as empresas brasileiras do setor elétrico percebam o PeD como uma efetiva oportunidade de negócio e de promoção da inovação. O trabalho desenvolveu-se no contexto de um ambiente regulatório e empresarial específicos. A busca da sustentabilidade corporativa e de inovações tornam-se factíveis com a Lei 9991, que impõe às concessionárias distribuidoras de energia elétrica a aplicação de um percentual da sua receita operacional líquida no desenvolvimento de projetos de PeD. Assim, exigências impostas por diferentes segmentos (investidores, financiadores, reguladores, consumidores e governo) estimulam a melhoria da qualidade, a redução de custos e a promoção da inovação. Três são as vertentes que nortearam a metodologia de desenvolvimento do trabalho. Quanto aos fins, a pesquisa faz uso da metrologia como ferramenta para a construção de indicadores de avaliação da apropriação de resultados que permitirá a proposição de métricas. Quanto aos meios de investigação, elabora uma pesquisa bibliográfica em temas relacionados à gestão do PeD e da inovação, como base para encaminhamento do estudo de casos de sucesso e fracasso de experiências das concessionárias. De caráter qualitativo, a pesquisa desenvolve um diagnóstico da carteira de projetos de PeD da Light entrevistando gerentes e gestores de PeD das concessionárias associadas à ABRADEE. O trabalho avalia resultados e disponibiliza ferramentas para a avaliação da apropriação de resultados e monitoramento dos projetos de PeD. Como conclusão sugere um método de análise de projetos que incorpora as lições aprendidas e propõe indicadores como ferramenta gerencial do novo marco do programa de PeD da Aneel, orientado para a inovação. / [en] The main objective of this work is to a propose indicators for supporting the construction of monitoring metrics of RandD activities, with the aim of adding value to their results and of transforming them into innovation. As manager of Light s RandD Program with Aneel (Brazil s electricity regulatory agency) program, the author found the motivation to make a contribution towards assisting Brazilian firms in the electricity distribution sector to perceive RandD as effective business and innovation fostering opportunity. The research was undertaken in the context of particular regulatory and business environments. The pursuit of corporate sustainability and innovations became feasible with the decree law 9,991, requiring electricity distribution concessionaries the expenditure of a percentage of their net operational revenue in the development of RandD projects. Thus, multiple requirements from diverse segments (investors, finance, regulators, consumers and government) promote quality improvement, cost reduction and innovation pursuit. Three vectors guide the work methodology. In regard to the goals, the research, it makes use of metrology as a tool for the definition of results appropriation assessment indicators which will allow the proposition of corresponding metrics. In regard to the research means, it performs a literarure survey on themes related to the management of RandD and innovation, as a basis for the identification of indicators and selection of metrics for the study of cases of success and failure in the concessionaires experiences. Next, in view of the qualitative nature of the research, makes a summary diagnostic of Light s project portfolio, through a series of interviews with researchers and project managers of concessionary firms associated with ABRADEE, the electricity distribution segment trade association. Further, the work assesses results and delineates tools for the monitoring and evaluation of the appropriation of RandD projects results. In its conclusion, the dissertation proposes the contours of a methodology for project assessment which incorporates lessons learned and indicators management tools for the new, innovation-oriented, Aneel RandD program.

Digital transformation has the potential to fundamentally change society. Digitalisation, through new technological solutions and advances, is expected to play a central role in ensuring future prosperity. Although the role of digitisation in society has been recognised, the public sector in Sweden is experiencing problems in realising the identified benefits, with the result that a large proportion of the projects being implemented exceed the set framework, constraints, and resources. The aim of this work has been to evaluate a digitisation project in the public sector through a qualitative case study and a goal-oriented framework. The case study has investigated which assumptions emerge in a digitisation project and how the realisation of benefits is affected by these. The evaluation carried out has shown that two different types of assumptions have occurred in the project, these have been formal and informal assumptions. The study has shown that assumptions create legitimacy and conditions for realisation within a digitisation project, while at the same time they create tensions within the project. The tensions show both enabling and constraining dimensions that have affected the project's implementation and benefit realisation positively and negatively. This study has identified a need to extend the work on assumptions in the LFA and has therefore proposed a model that illustrates the relationship of the two types to each other and to the project and its benefit realisation. The evaluation of the digitisation project has shown that the project team prioritised ensuring relevance and sustainability over feasibility, which created tensions in project implementation that negatively affected the realisation of benefits within the project. This study has shown that assumptions are often a "necessary evil" in relation to a project's impact capture, but are facilitated by good structure and clear leadership. / Digital transformation har potential att förändra samhället i grunden. Digitalisering genom nya tekniska lösningar och framsteg, spås besitta en central roll när framtidens välfärd ska säkras. Trots att digitaliseringens roll i samhället är konstaterad, upplever offentlig sektor i Sverige problem med att realisera de identifierade nyttorna. Detta har medfört att en stor del av projekten som genomförs, överskrider uppsatta ramar, begränsningar och resurser. Syftet med detta arbete har varit att genom en kvalitativ fallstudie, via intervjuer, dokumentinsamling samt ett mål-orienterat ramverk, utvärdera ett digitaliseringsprojekt inom offentlig sektor. Fallstudien har utrett vilka antaganden som framträder i ett digitaliseringsprojekt och hur nyttorealiseringen påverkats av dessa. Utvärderingen som utförts har visat att två olika typer av antaganden förekommit inom projektet, dessa har varit formella- och informella antaganden. Studien har visat att antaganden skapar legitimering av- samt förutsättningar för realisering inom ett digitaliseringsprojekt, samtidigt som de skapar spänningar inom projektet. Spänningarna visar på både möjliggörande och begränsande dimensioner vilka påverkat projektets genomförande och nyttorealisering positivt samt negativt. Denna undersökning har identifierat ett behov, att i LFA utöka arbetet med antaganden och har därför föreslagit en modell vilken illustrerar de två typernas relation till varandra samt till projektet och dess nyttorealisering. Utvärderingen av digitaliseringsprojektet har visat att projektgruppen prioriterat säkring av relevans och varaktighet framför genomförbarhet, vilket skapat spänningar i projektgenomförandet som påverkat nyttorealiseringen inom projektet negativt. Denna studie har visat att antaganden ofta kan ses som ett ”nödvändigt ont” i relation till ett projekts effekthemtagning/nyttorealisering, men som underlättas av bra struktur och tydligt ledarskap.

The Greening Soweto Tree Planting project in the City of Johannesburg, South Africa, was a greening initiative aimed at ensuring that benefits of the 2010 FIFA World Cup, presented that year in the country, extended beyond the event. In assessing the trees of this project, it was confirmed that the target number of trees consisting mainly of indigenous tree species were planted predominantly as street and park trees in previously disadvantaged areas, traditionally known to have the least trees in the city. The survival rate of the project is estimated to be 43.46%, implying inadequacies in tree planting and management of the project and necessitating guidelines with recommendations to improve tree planting practices in the city. Growth relationship equations for Olea europaea subsp. africana and Searsia lancea were developed and the growth parameter analysis reveals that all trees grow better in parks but C. africana trees should rather be planted on sidewalks than on medians, S. lancea trees should preferably be planted on medians and C. erythrophyllum may be planted on sidewalks or medians as they would grow well in both locations. It is estimated that this project contributed 30 390.11 tCO2 of standing carbon stocks valued at R3 646 812,87 or US$303,901.07 (assuming a CO2 price of US$10.00) in 2017 and could potentially contribute 387 170.93 tCO2 of sequestered carbon stocks valued at R46 460 511,82 or US$3,871,709.32 by 2031 as mitigation action against climate change. A positive connection impacting the growth of the trees has been identified between land use, land cover and maintenance, indicating that the best locations for trees are maintained parks and formal residential areas as well as paved areas where irrigation is provided. The presence of pests and diseases, conflict with overhead structures and roads and a lack of pruning negatively impacted the growth of the trees. Guidelines for new tree planting projects have been developed with recommendations to maintain the canopy cover percentage in the established urban forest, enhance tree planting in the previously disadvantaged regions, improve the survival rate of new tree planting projects and establish community engagement forums to inform future tree planting of the city. / Environmental Sciences / Ph. D. (Environmental Management)

[pt] Em muitos países, uma área de Exploração e Produção de petróleo é adquirida através de um leilão. Embora o processo de liquidação do leilão seja tipicamente simples, sob a ótica do tomador de decisão a identificação da melhor oferta é complexa. Para sua valoração, deve ser pré-definido o modelo de desenvolvimento com diversas alternativas associadas, alto grau de incertezas técnicas, de mercado e operacionais, e submetido a uma determinada condição fiscal. A decisão por uma determinada alternativa gera impactos e investimentos elevados para a empresa. O trabalho proposto visa a construção de um framework para dar suporte ao processo de escolha da melhor oferta que maximize uma medida de valor para a empresa, auxiliando o tomador de decisão e considerando as incertezas envolvidas no processo. Foram utilizados os indicadores de performance apresentados na literatura: Valor Presente Líquido (VPL), Conditional Value-at-Risk, Omega e Exposição Financeira. Afim de melhor quantificar risco/benefício financeiro no processo de tomada de decisão foram construídas medidas de risco: Mean-Weighted CVaR, Mean-Weighted Double-Sided CVaR, Beta e Negative-Positive cashflow ratio. Para ilustrar a aplicabilidade do framework proposto, um experimento numérico baseado em um caso hipotético é apresentado. Em decorrência deste experimento, foi identificado que alterações na configuração da produção alteram significativamente os resultados dos indicadores. Além disso, a partir de uma ponderação entre probabilidade de ganho e o resultado do indicador Mean-Weighted CVaR, foi identificada a melhor oferta para a área, dada a condição fiscal do leilão. / [en] In many countries, an oil and gas area of Exploration and Production is acquired through an auction. Although the auction settlement process is typically simple, from the decision maker s point of view, identifying the best offer is complex. For its valuation, the development model must be pre-defined with several associated alternatives, a high degree of technical, market and operational uncertainties, and submitted to a fiscal term. The decision for a particular alternative generates high impacts and investments for the company. The proposed work aims to build a framework to support the process of choosing the best offer that maximizes a measure of value for the company, helping the decision maker and considering the uncertainties involved in the process. The performance indicators presented in the literature were used: Net Present Value (NPV), Conditional Value-at-Risk, Omega and Financial Exposure. In order to better quantify financial risk/benefit in the decisionmaking process, risk measures were constructed: Mean-Weighted CVaR, Mean- Weighted Double-Sided CVaR, Beta and Negative-Positive cashflow ratio. To illustrate the applicability of the proposed framework, a numerical experiment based on a hypothetical case is presented. As a result of this experiment, it was identified that changes in the configuration of production significantly alter the results of the indicators. In addition, from a weighting between the probability of gain and the result of the Mean-Weighted CVaR measure, the best offer for the area was identified, given the fiscal term of the bid.