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Environmental Concerns and Banking Sector in SwedenTchape Tchapi, Pierre Douglas, Rosenfeld, Elina January 2008 (has links)
<p>This study concentrates on two questions – “Should banks take environmental concerns?”and “What is the attitude of Swedish banks towards sustainability?” The theory related to environmental concerns in the financial sector is presented and further on the empirical data</p><p>describing the situation within the Swedish banking sector is discussed. The empirical data was collected with the aid of a semi-structured interview and offers a real-life example of actions and attitudes of two case banks in Sweden – SEB and Handelsbanken. The aim of this paper is not restricted to presenting and discussing the collected theoretical and empirical data but also to involve the reader in the environmental way of thinking. This text is based on</p><p>the idea that banks are liable for the indirect impact on the environment and need to acknowledge that some borrowers involve in environmentally harmful businesses. The research method used for this study is of a qualitative nature, more precisely it is an exploratory research which aims to explain. The semi-structured interview used to study the attitudes of the chosen Swedish case banks, was composed of two types of questions – closed- and open-ended. Special characteristics of a semi-structured interview are the prompts and probes in its structure. These are the approaches to guide the respondent to reach broader coverage and greater depth in his/her answers.</p><p>Through the interview results, it became evident that the environmental issues have gained certain visibility within the Swedish banking sector. The given answers pointed towards the impression that maintaining a sound corporate image is the prior concern of a bank and</p><p>indicated that banking sector in Sweden undergoes external pressure to pursue environmentally friendly activities. It is clear that banks play a major role by financing the continuous damage to our planet, and it is comforting to know the banking sector is undergoing the pressure of becoming more involved in sustainable development. The</p><p>conclusions and the empirical evidence presented in this study are hoped to give a simplified view on environmental concerns within banking sector.</p>
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Change Management, kombinerat metodstöd vid uppgradering av ett dokumenthanteringssystem / Change Management, combined method support when upgrading a document management systemJohansson, Katarina January 2015 (has links)
Syfte: Syftet har varit att finna ett verktyg för att lyfta fram egenskaper som bör reflekteras och beaktas vid förändringsarbete för att optimera och anpassa uppgradering av t.ex. ett dokumenthanteringssystem. Metod: En ny metod (COMBO-metoden) har utvecklats i syftet att finna ett nytt verktyg som kan lyfta fram egenskaper som bör identifieras och beaktas för att säkerställa arbetssätt samt optimera och anpassa uppgradering av t.ex. ett dokumenthanteringssystem. Metoden bygger på teori, en empirisk fallstudie och befintliga metoder. Insamling av data baseras på både sekundärdata och primärdata. De empiriska fakta som används baseras i huvudsak på en fallstudie och egen erfarenhet från denna. Angreppssättet har i huvudsak varit kvalitativt (för att förstå och komma nära människors tankar eller beteende) och mina slutsatser bygger både på induktion (empiri) och deduktion (logiskt resonemang). Resultat och analys: Genom att beakta begrepp som ”Kommunikation”, ”Tydlighet” och ”Bygga relationer”, enligt i studien använda metoder och teorier, blir Change Management framgångsrikt och riskerna lägre, samtidigt som ”Förvirring”, ”Motarbete”, ”Ångest” och ”Motstånd” motverkas. Slutsats: Syftet uppfylldes och realiserades med hjälp av teorier, metoder och en empirisk fallstudie som strukturerades efter samma princip. Därmed kunde utveckling av COMBO-metoden ske som blev ett verktyg för att synliggöra flera egenskaper som är viktiga att beakta vid förändringsarbete. Egenskaperna framträdde i metoden som ”risker” och ”ackumulerade risker” och var beroende av vilken fas av förändringsarbetet som analyseras. Förslag på vidare arbete: Det vore intressant att göra mer omfattande tester av COMBO-metoden för att se om den kan vara användbar på flera områden och vid olika scenarier. Det vore även intressant att vidareutveckla COMBO-metoden. Både i form av en förfinad frågeställning, och därmed få mer riktade inmatningsvärden, och utveckla beräkningar och funktioner för att få ett mer exakt resultat. Att implementera COMBO-metoden i en databas med användarvänliga formulär kunde också varit önskvärt. Förslag på vidare arbete är också att kombinera och utveckla andra metoder för att se om de kan samverka och förstärka egenskaper vid analysen av data. / Aim: The aim of the study has been to find tools to identify aspects that need to be observed and considered in change projects aimed at optimizing and adapting e.g. a document management system. Method: A new method (COMBO) has been developed to highlight those characteristics that should be reflected and considered to ensure successful working procedures when optimizing and customizing an upgrade of e.g. a document management system. The method is based on theory, an empirical case study and existing methods. Data collection is based on both secondary data and primary data. The empirical data is mainly based on a case study and my personal experience of this. The approach has been mainly qualitative (understanding and getting close to people's thoughts or behavior), and my conclusions are based both on induction (empiricism) and deduction (logical reasoning). Result and Analysis: By focusing on the concepts of ”Communication”, ”Direct” and ”Relationship building”, according to the methods and theories used, Change Management will become successful and risk reduced, while counteracting ”Confusion”, ”Sabotage”, ”Anxiety” and ”Resistance”. Conclusions: The objective was achieved and realized with the help of theories, methods and empirical case study was structured on the same principle. This enabled the development of COMBO method that became a tool to visualize several characteristics that are important to consider in change management. These characteristics emerged in the method as "risks" and "accumulated risks" and were dependent on which stage of the change process that is analyzed. Suggestions for further work: It would be interesting to further test the COMBO method to find out if it can be applied to other applications and scenarios. It would also be interesting to develop the COMBO method itself, either by refining the issue, and thereby getting more targeted input, or by developing calculations and functions to get more precise results. Implementing the COMBO method in a database using user-friendly forms would also be preferable. Another suggestion for further work is to combine and develop other methods to see if they can be made to interact and reinforce certain characteristics in the data analysis.
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Player perceptions and biomechanical responses to tennis court surfaces : the implications to technique and injury riskStarbuck, Chelsea January 2014 (has links)
Elite tennis players are required to perform on a variety of tennis court surfaces which differ in mechanical characteristics, such as friction and hardness, influencing their performance and risk of injury. To understand the influence of surfaces on performance and injury risk, three studies were conducted to investigate tennis players' perceptions and biomechanical responses during tennis-specific movements on different court surfaces. In study 1, tennis players perceptions of acrylic and clay courts were identified following a thematic inductive analysis of semi-structured interviews (n = 7) to develop a series of visual analogue scales (VAS) to quantify perceptions during studies 2 and 3. Perceptions of predictability of the surface and players' ability to slide and change direction emerged, in addition to anticipated perceptions of grip and hardness. Study 2 aimed to examine the influence of court surfaces and prior clay court experience on perceptions and biomechanical characteristics of tennis-specific skills. Perception, kinematic, insole pressure and mechanical data were collected on an acrylic and a clay court. In agreement with findings reported in study 1, lower mechanical friction and hardness on the clay court were perceived and accompanied by less predictability and greater difficulty to change direction whilst being easier to slide. As result of sliding, players' adopted an altered technique on the clay court compared to the acrylic leading to reductions in loading provide evidence to explain lower injury risks previously reported on clay courts. Prior clay court experience did not influence players' perceptions. However, biomechanical response to the clay surface differed, such that players with high clay court experiences contacted the ground with an everted foot, believed to contribute to controlling sliding. Differences in perception-response relationships were reported between experience groups suggesting players with greater clay court experience are better able to choose an appropriate response to improve their performance. Friction properties of the surface may change during play on clay courts due to player movements and sliding on the court. Therefore there may be areas of expected and unexpected changes to friction to which players must respond to. Study 3 aimed to examine the influence of changes in friction and players awareness of these changes on perceptions and biomechanical response. Compared with study 1 and 2, players found it more difficult to identify differences in perceived grip during study 3, possibly due the smaller mechanical friction differences reported. Unexpected reductions in friction produced greater initial ankle inversion angles compared to the expected decreases in friction, increasing players' risk of injury. Lower horizontal and vertical loading rates were reported on the lower friction conditions where further sliding was reported; suggesting a reduced injury risk by allowing longer time spent applying the forces. This thesis has identified key perception variables that enabled a holistic understanding of perceptions and their interaction with biomechanical response. Mechanical friction was an important factor influencing players' ability to slide. Sliding on clay resulted in altered loading characteristics, pressure distributions and kinematics potentially reducing players' injury risk. Tennis players' experience of clay courts does not influence their perceptions of the surface but the response that players adopt, which lower their risk of injury and increase performance. It is important when playing on a clay court that friction properties are maintained across the court during a tennis match as much as possible to reduce injury risks, due to the influence of unexpected changes to friction on perceptions and response.
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Déviances aux normes sexe et sexualité à risque(s) : représentations et impact du genre dans la perception des risques sexuels / Gender standards deviation and risk in sexuality : the impact of masculinity and femininity representations on the sexual risks perceptionDomenech-Dorca, Gwenaël 24 January 2012 (has links)
L’accès des femmes à une sexualité sans risque est soumis à l’image qu’elles se font de leurs partenaires. Nous nous proposons d’explorer l’impact des représentations de masculinité et de féminité dans la perception des risques sexuels. Cinq études seront mises en place afin d’étayer l’hypothèse générale suivante : les individus s’éloignant des normes de sexe de leurs groupes (hommes déviants et femmes déviantes) sont perçus comme prenant davantage de risques dans leurs sexualités que les individus en accord avec les prescriptions sociales (physiques et comportementales) de leur sexe.Nos résultats remettent en perspective une partie de la littérature. Pour une femme, un individu (sexe masculin ou féminin) correspondant aux attentes physiques et comportementales de son groupe de sexe prend plus de risques qu’un individu physiquement typique mais ayant des attitudes opposées à celles qui lui sont socialement préconisées (étude 3). Les normes comportementales, attribuées socialement aux hommes ou aux femmes, influencent directement l’image que l’on se fait d’une personne (étude 5). Ainsi, quel que soit son sexe, la présentation de comportements masculins amène à percevoir un individu comme ayant davantage de comportements à risques que lorsqu’il est décrit avec des comportements féminins. / Women’s access to sexuality without risk is submitted to the perception they have of their partners. Our purpose is to explore the impact of masculinity and femininity representations into the sexual risks perception. Five studies will be presented to test this hypothesis: people who are far from their own sex group standards (deviant man or woman) are seen as people who are taking more risks in their sexuality than people who act in accordance with social prescriptions (physical appearance or behavior) concerning their sex. Our results puts into perspective one part of the literature. For a woman, a person (men or women) who is corresponding to the physical appearance and behavior expectations of her/his own sex group is taking more risks than a person with a typical physical aspect but with opposite social attitudes which are normally recommended (study #3). Standard behaviors, which are socially attributed to men and women, affect directly the image we have of a person (study #5). Indeed, whatever one’s sex, the presentation of a masculine behavior brings to perceive someone as a person who takes more risks than one described with feminine manners.
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EVALUATING THE COGNITIVE DRIVERS AND DETERRENTS OF ADAPTATION IN THE IOWA-CEDAR WATERSHEDGonzalez, Aleesandria 01 May 2017 (has links)
This research explores the relationship between the cognitive variables perceived risks, perceived barriers, perceived self-efficacy, and perceived hazard experience with farmer support for adaptation and the agreement between farmer perceptions with observed climate conditions of drought and excess precipitation. Climate conditions were evaluated using monthly Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) values from 1950 to 2014. The remaining variables were measured using a closed ended survey of corn and soybean farmers (N =276) in the Iowa-Cedar Watershed. The relationships were evaluated using Spearman’s Rank Order Correlation (), frequency distributions, and probability analysis. Perceived barriers were found to be a significant predictor of support for adaptation. Transformational adaptations were less supported by farmers than incremental adaptations. Farmers expressed more concern for finances than any other risks or barrier. The majority of farmers reported low to moderate risks to drought and precipitation with high efficacy to cope to future impacts. Lastly, climate conditions indicate that there were more frequent and extreme precipitation events than drought events and that farmer perceptions of climate are consistent with observed climate conditions. However, while climate change projections indicate increased weather extremes in the future, farmers perceive no change in risks. It is unclear whether or not farmers are actually equipped to handle future threats to their crops. Future research should address this problem by conducting a longitudinal study to observe farmers’ perception prior to and after experiencing extreme events.
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Prevalência de anticorpos contra o vírus da diarreia viral bovina em suínosGatto, Igor Renan Honorato [UNESP] 26 February 2015 (has links) (PDF)
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000837037.pdf: 3762653 bytes, checksum: bea2b617ceb4163e2c7bb4b39bcc4f39 (MD5) / Os suínos são susceptíveis a infecção por diversas espécies de Pestivirus, a infecção de suínos com pestivírus de ruminantes tem gerado preocupação em diversos países, dependendo do método utilizado, o diagnóstico entre BVDV e CSFV pode ser dificultado. O presente trabalho teve como objetivo verificar a prevalência de anticorpos contra o vírus da diarreia viral bovina (BVDV) em suínos terminados. Para tal, foram investigadas as prevalências do BVDV-1 e 2, obtiveram-se informações de prevalência de acordo com a origem das amostras, foram associados fatores de risco à ocorrência da infecção, verificado as diferenças entre os títulos das amostras positivas testadas com 100 TCID50 e 50 TCID50 e realizado diagnóstico diferencial para PSC. Os soros sanguíneo foram obtidos de suínos enviados para matadouros-frigorífico no estado de São Paulo. As propriedades de origem dos suínos eram localizadas nos estados do Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina e Rio Grande do Sul. As amostras foram submetidas ao teste de VN conforme preconizado pelo Manual of Diagnostic Tests and Vaccines for Terrestrial Animals (OIE), para às sororreagentes, foi realizado o diagnóstico diferencial para PSC pelo método de ELISA. Foram analisadas 1705 amostras de soro sanguíneo de suínos, obtidas de 33 propriedades. O teste de VN indicou 5,34% (91/1705) de amostras sororreagentes ao BVDV, sendo 3,0% (51/1705) para o genótipo 1 e 2,35% (40/1705) para o genótipo 2. Considerando a origem das amostras, destacam-se os estados do Mato Grosso, com 10,00% e Rio Grande do Sul, com 9,18% de amostras sororreagentes ao BVDV-1, contra o BVDV-2, destacam-se os estados do Mato Grosso, com 6,0% e Mato Grosso do Sul, com 4,29% de sororreagentes. Nenhum fator de risco teve associação significativa com a ocorrência de infecção ao BVDV-1, contudo, para o BVDV-2, foram encontradas associações significativas... / Several species of Pestivirus have pigs as susceptible hosts. The infection of ruminant pestivirus in pigs have been concerning many countries and depending on the diagnosis test used it is hard to differ BVDV from CSFV infections due to serological cross-reaction in diagnostic tests. This study aimed on determining the prevalence of antibodies against bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in finisher pigs. Prevalence of BVDV -1 and BVDV-2 was investigated and information about the samples origin were analyzed in order to associate the the occurrence of the infection with possible risk factors. The samples were tested using 100 TCID50 and 50 TCID50 and the differences between the titers were analyzed. In addition, differential diagnosis for Classical Swine Fever (CSF) was done in all positive samples. The blood sera samples were obtained from pigs sent to slaughterhouses in the state of São Paulo. The origin of the animals was from farms located in the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, Sao Paulo, Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul. The samples were tested using the virus neutralization (VN) test according to the Manual of Diagnostic Tests Vaccines for Terrestrial Animals (OIE) and the positive samples were ELISA tested to differ from CSF. 1705 swine serum samples from 33 farms were tested. The VN test showed 5.34% (91 / 1705) of seropositive samples for BVDV, with 3.0% (51 / 1705) for genotype 1 and 2.35% (40 / 1705) for genotype 2. Considering the origin of the samples, the highlights are the states of Mato Grosso, with 10.00% and Rio Grande do Sul, with 9.18% of seropositive for BVDV-1. Regarding to BVDV-2, states that had the highest number of positive samples were Mato Grosso (6.0%) and Mato Grosso do Sul, (4.29%). No significant association was found between risk factors the occurrence of BVDV-1 infection, however, for BVDV-2 positive cases significant associations were found with the risk factors ...
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Owners’ Perspective of Factors Contributing to Project Delay: Case Studies of Road and Bridge Projects in Saudi ArabiaJanuary 2015 (has links)
abstract: Delays are a major cause for concern in the construction industry both globally and locally in Saudi Arabia. This paper identifies the main causes of delay in infrastructure projects in the holy city of Makkah (Saudi Arabia) and compares these with projects around the rest of the country and other Gulf countries as well. Data were obtained from 49 infrastructure projects that were undertaken by the owner and were analyzed quantitatively to understand the severity and causes of delay. 10 risk factors were identified in this study and these factors were grouped into four categories. The average delay in infrastructure projects in the city of Makkah was found to be 39%. The most severe cause of delay was found to be the land acquisition factor. This highlights the critical land ownership and acquisition issues that is prevailing in Makkah. In addition to this, other factors include contractors’ lack of expertise, haphazard underground utilities (line services), and re-designing. It is concluded that majority of delays were caused from the owner’s side as compared to contractors, consultants, and other project’s stakeholders. This finding was in line with the research findings of the Gulf Countries Construction (GCC) Industry’s literature as well. This study will fill an important practice and research gap for improving the efficiency in project delivery for infrastructure projects in the holy city of Makkah and the Gulf countries at large. / Dissertation/Thesis / Masters Thesis Construction 2015
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Análise do comportamento da divulgação das informações sobre provisões e passivos contingentes das empresas do setor de energia elétrica listadas na BM&FBOVESPA / Analysis of the behavior of disseminating information on provisions and contingent liabilities of companies in the electricity sector listed on the BM & FBOVESPAFabricio José do Prado 16 June 2014 (has links)
O objetivo deste trabalho é identificar o comportamento da evidenciação dos riscos potenciais representados pelas informações contidas nas provisões e passivos contingentes das empresas. O estudo analisou a divulgação das informações sobre riscos potenciais nas demonstrações contábeis dos exercícios de 2002, 2006, 2010 e 2012, utilizando como parâmetro as recomendações de órgãos normativos nacionais: 2012 foi o período mais próximo ao encerramento da coleta de dados, enquanto que em cada um dos demais períodos mencionados ocorreram mudanças significativas em termos de normas contábeis. O campo de pesquisa do presente trabalho constitui-se das notas explicativas das demonstrações financeiras das empresas do setor de energia elétrica, listadas na BM&FBOVESPA, dos exercícios mencionados. O setor de energia elétrica foi escolhido devido sua representatividade no mercado acionário brasileiro - 16,46% do total; à modernização na regulamentação contábil ocorrida como processo de privatização das empresas estatais; e por adotar normatizações internacionais na elaboração de suas demonstrações contábeis, contribuindo assim para a análise temporal proposta no presente estudo. No presente trabalho pode-se verificar a evolução dos informações que as empresas do setor de energia elétrica estão divulgando ao mercado, avaliando o comportamento das informações sobre riscos potenciais para os usuários das demonstrações contábeis. Os resultados encontrados mostram que as empresas do setor de energia elétrica tiveram evolução em sua divulgação de riscos potenciais principalmente entre os anos 2002 e 2006, fato este devido à modernização da regulamentação contábil neste período; nos períodos entre os anos 2010 e 2012, houve melhora na quantidade das informações sobre riscos potenciais, que o setor de energia elétrica passou a divulgar ao mercado, com relatórios mais detalhados, com maior número de evidências para que os usuários das demonstrações contábeis possam distinguir quais empresas apresentam maior risco e qual o nível de risco das companhias. Com isto pode-se verificar que as empresas do setor estudado apresentaram uma curva de aprendizagem conforme a evolução da legislação aplicável a matéria estudada. / The objective of this work is to identify the behavior of the disclosure of the potential risks posed by information contained in provisions and contingent liabilities of companies. The study analyzed the dissemination of information about potential risks in the financial statements for the years 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2012, using as a parameter the recommendations of national standards bodies: 2012 was the closest to the closure of the data collection period, while in each of the remaining periods mentioned significant changes in terms of accounting standards. The search field of this study represents the notes to the financial statements of companies in the electricity sector listed on the BM&FBOVESPA, the exercises mentioned. The electricity sector was chosen due to its representation in the Brazilian market - 16.46 % of the total; modernizations in accounting regulation occurred as the privatization of state enterprises; and adopt international norms in preparing its financial statements, thereby contributing to the temporal analysis proposed in this study. In the present work can be seen the evolution of information that companies in the electric power industry are touting the market, evaluating the behavior of information on potential risks to users of the financial statements. The results show that companies in the electricity sector had developments in their disclosure of potential risks mainly between 2002 and 2006, a fact due to the modernization of accounting regulation in this period; the periods between the years 2010 and 2012 , there was an improvement in the amount of information about potential risks, the electricity sector began to disclose to the market, with more detailed reports, with more evidence that users of financial statements can distinguish which companies present greater risk and what level of risk companies. With this it can be seen that the companies analyzed sector showed a learning curve as the evolution of the material being studied applicable law.
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Aplicação das metodologias FMEA-FUZZY para a gestão de riscos na cadeia de suprimentos em empresas do APL de confecções do agreste pernambucanoPALMEIRA, Juliana Nobrega Barbosa 15 July 2016 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2016-07-15 / FACEPE / A Cadeia de Suprimentos é uma forma organizacional eficaz que se constitui como
componente-chave da competitividade e da efetividade organizacional. Porém, há a
probabilidade de as empresas não atingirem o desempenho esperado, com Cadeias de
Suprimentos cada vez mais complexas, principalmente devido aos riscos de falhas nas diversas
etapas executadas. Nesse sentido, o gerenciamento de riscos na Cadeia de Suprimentos se torna
essencial, para que se possam definir as estratégias corretas, buscando diminuir a força desses
riscos para que não afetem a continuidade dos negócios. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo
avaliar qual é o comportamento de vinte e seis empresas que fazem parte do Arranjo Produtivo
Local – APL de Pernambuco diante dos riscos das Cadeias de Suprimentos nas quais elas estão
inseridas, com base em entrevistas e aplicações de questionários. Esta pesquisa fez uso da
metodologia Failure Mode and Effects Analysis - FMEA associada à lógica Fuzzy para
realização de um estudo de caso, priorizando ações de melhoria. Utilizando a FMEA, foi
possível caracterizar os modos de falha em ordem de severidade, ocorrência e detecção. Já com
a utilização da lógica Fuzzy foi possível reduzir as fragilidades ajudando na tomada de decisão
caracterizada por informações e julgamentos imprecisos, o que contribuiu de forma satisfatória
para o gerenciamento dos riscos. Os resultados da pesquisa mostraram que, no geral, há
ausência de práticas de gerenciamento de riscos nas empresas, porém, com as propostas e ações
de melhorias, foi possível identificar ajustes aos processos e avaliar a eficácia das soluções
propostas, prevenindo os riscos e aplicando ações preventivas ou corretivas para diminuir ou
até mesmo eliminar os efeitos de falhas sobre os processos. / The supply chain management is an effective organizational form that constitutes as a keycomponent
of the competitiveness and organizational effectiveness. However, there is the
probability that the enterprises do not have the expected performance, with increasingly
complex supply chains, mainly due to the failure risks in the various steps performed. In this
way, the risk management in the Supply Chain becomes essential for them to be able to define
the correct strategies seeking to minimize the risks so the business continuity is not affected.
This paper aims to evaluate what is the behavior of the twenty-six enterprises in Local
Productive Arrangement (LPA) from Pernambuco in Brazil regarding to the Supply Chain
Management risks in which they are inserted, based on interviews and questionnaires
applications. This research used the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis - FMEA methodology
associated with the fuzzy logic to perform a case study, prioritizing improvement actions. By
using FMEA it was possible to characterize the failure modes in severity, occurrence and
detection sequence and by using the fuzzy logic it was possible to reduce the fragilities,
contributing to the decision making characterized by information and non-precise judgments,
which contributed satisfactorily for the risk management. The research results have shown that
there is absence of risk management practices in the enterprises. However, with the proposals
and improvement actions, it was possible to identify adjustments to the processes and evaluate
the efficacy of the proposed solutions, preventing the risks and applying preventive or
corrective actions to diminish or even eliminate the failure effects over the processes.
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Análise de risco em barragens = um índice de priorização / Risk analysis for dams : an index prioritizationZuffo, Monica Soares Resio 16 August 2018 (has links)
Orientador: Ana Inês Borri Genovez / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Civil, Arquitetura e Urbanismo / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-16T17:03:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1
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Previous issue date: 2010 / Resumo: A análise de risco em barragens trata da primeira iniciativa em direção à avaliação de risco oferecido por este tipo de estrutura. É parte constituinte de uma nova área de conhecimento denominada de Gerenciamento de Risco. O modelo baseado em risco procura dar segurança ao decisor, propiciando uma compreensão das implicações dos riscos e das incertezas associadas. Avaliações de risco por índices são valiosas, pois permitem uma avaliação de diferentes aspectos, informam um possível comprometimento da segurança da barragem e possibilitam um diagnóstico global das condições de segurança da estrutura. Devem, preferencialmente, refletir o risco métrico das chances de ocorrência e suas consequências, a fim de propiciar um aumento na compreensão das questões de segurança obtida por meio da aplicação de métodos tradicionais de avaliação da segurança de barragens, os quais são fundamentais para manter as barragens seguras. Contudo, podem não ser muito úteis na ocasião de hierarquizar as estruturas. O objetivo desse estudo é elaborar um índice de priorização de risco para pequenas barragens de material solto, denominado de IPRB. Seu algoritmo está fundamentado na Teorema das Probabilidades Totais, leva em consideração a avaliação de dez subcritérios relacionados às barragens e combina os atributos de avaliação com cinco modos de falha. Como estudo de caso, selecionou-se 28 pequenas barragens de material solto situadas na Bacia do Piracicaba, Capivari e Jundiaí (PCJ), no Estado de São Paulo. A fim de auferir seus resultados, utilizou-se uma metodologia por índice de avaliação de risco probabilístico-determinístico e os resultados de uma avaliação tradicional de segurança, realizada a partir de um método determinístico Ad Hoc. O resultado do índice de priorização ofereceu a vantagem de conseguir uma hierarquização inicial para barragens que constam em um mesmo portfólio. Desta forma, a aplicação permite nortear a ordem das barragens que necessitam de estudos posteriores mais aprofundados ou para ajudar a estabelecer requerimentos de vigilância e monitoramento. Constata-se que é uma ferramenta eficaz, que auxiliará o gerenciamento dos riscos, e, assim, mostrou-se eficiente, seguindo as recomendações do que deve ser um índice de priorização de risco na análise de risco em barragens. O IPRB pode ser considerado como uma tentativa original em desenvolver tais ferramentas, pois é a única que é puramente semi-probabilística em sua determinação, característica muito desejada nas análises de risco / Abstract: The risk analysis for dams is the first step towards the accomplishment of a dam safety risk assessment. It is part of a new area of knowledge known as Risk Management. The riskbased model is to reassure the decision-making process, propitiating an understanding of the implications of the risks and uncertainties associated to dam safety issues. Risk analysis by indexes tools are valuable once they allow the evaluation of different aspects, inform a probable occurrence of hazards of the dam safety and permit a general overview of the dam safety conditions. Indexes prioritization shall incorporate a risk metric chance of occurrence of a dam incident/accident and its consequences, in order to allow a better understanding of the results given by the traditional dam safety approaches; its use is fundamental to keep a dam safety. However, the traditional approach methods are not very useful to rank dams. The purpose of this study is to elaborate an index prioritization for small embankment dams, named IPD. Its algorithm is based on the Total Probabilities Theorem and it considers 10 different criteria, linked to five failure modes. In order to develop this work, 28 small embankment dams, located at the Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiaí river basin, in São Paulo state, Brazil, were chosen. A risk-based deterministic-probabilistic methodology and also the results obtained by a deterministic ad hoc method were employed to check on the results given by the IPD. The IPD results propitiated an initial hierarchy of dams belonging to a same portfolio. This way, its employment is useful to rank dams, which need further detailed studies, or to help establish monitoring and vigilance requirements. It can be considered as an effective tool that takes into account all the characteristics that an index prioritization must have and will certainly assist the risk management. The IPD is an original tool since it is the only one found purely on a probabilistic basis, which is a desired characteristic in risk analysis tools / Doutorado / Recursos Hidricos, Energeticos e Ambientais / Doutor em Engenharia Civil
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