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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
101

Sustainable Supply Chain Management through the integration of IoT: Road Transportation

Al-Majidi, Samsul Alam January 2022 (has links)
Traditional transport companies usually focus on achieving economies of scale in supply chain management. At the same time, the managers of transport companies aiming to achieve sustainability often do not consider the barriers needed to overcome to achieve a sustainable supply chain. However, due to the increasing demand for sustainable products and business methods, sustainable supply chain management increasingly plays a crucial role in changing and diverting the focus on environmental, social and economic impact. Transport companies around the globe are increasingly aiming to reduce carbon emissions and eliminate biodiversity loss. The sustainability issues with transport in supply chain management have been a critical field of research for decades, and with the integration of technology, new ways of achieving sustainability are possible. This thesis analyses a phenomenon using multiple cases to investigate the barriers transport companies face to adopting IoT. Also, it deals with how communication service providers might be able to offer solutions to the barriers presented in this thesis.  A qualitative method has been used to approach the research topic. The findings will represent the ways of achieving a more efficient and sustainable supply chain, particularly in the transport sector. Interviews were conducted with multiple industry experts. The study aims to identify the barriers to adopting IoT, which can create a sustainable supply chain for transport companies. The results emphasise the barriers transport companies have to deal with internally and externally. Internally a company might struggle to strategise an infrastructural investment, train the existing workforce, and collaborate knowledge share among different departments. Externally, transport companies or communication service providers (CSP) will face limited resources, stakeholders' investment in the IoT ecosystem, demand for IoT and sustainable supply chain, privacy issues, compatibility issues and lack of skilled labour.
102

How Ecosystem Actors Manage Opportunities and Challenges through Business Model Innovation : A Case Study on the Electrification of Heavy Road Transport along E16 Borlänge – Gävle Hamn / Hur ekosystemsaktörer hanterar möjligheter och utmaningar genom affärsmodellsinnovation : En fallstudie av elektrifieringen av tunga vägtransporter längs E16 Borlänge – Gävle Hamn

Hedman, Gustav, Lindfors, Robin January 2022 (has links)
The electrification of heavy road transport is ongoing in Sweden. Multiple electrification technologies are emerging and electric truck models are being added to the product portfolios of the truck manufacturers. However, questions have remained regarding how the electrification of heavy road transport will unfold in practice, as it has been unclear what roles the actors of the emerging electric heavy road transport ecosystem will enact in terms of who should finance, build, own, operate and use the technical components deemed critical to the transition. This thesis addresses this issue through a case study on the electrification of heavy road transport along E16 Borlänge - Gävle Hamn, based on interviews with representatives of goods owners, haulage contractors, truck manufacturers, the port authority, electrical grid owners and charging infrastructure companies. By exploring the varying perceptions of the transition to electric heavy road transport, the studied case provides insight into how ecosystem actors manage opportunities and challenges through business model innovation and in effect contribute to the development of the ecosystem. First, the thesis addresses how the ecosystem actors perceive business model opportunities and challenges with the transition to electric heavy road transport, what roles these actors could potentially consider enacting in the transition and what roles are considered critical. From the interviews with representatives of the ecosystem actors, a wide range of opportunities and challenges are identified, as well as differing perceptions of specific opportunities, challenges and roles. It is argued that these differing perceptions add to the complexity of the emerging ecosystem, in addition to the multilateral and complementary relationships between actors, and that such complexity could be managed by one or several ecosystem actors enacting a leadership role to guide ecosystem development at its early stages. Second, how the ecosystem actors manage the perceived opportunities and challenges through business model innovation and thus participate in the development of the ecosystem is addressed. From the interviews with representatives of the ecosystem actors, the ecosystem actors are demonstrated to innovate all but one sub-component of the business model to manage these opportunities and challenges, where some actors are innovating to a greater extent than others and in turn managing a greater number of opportunities and challenges. In addition, some ecosystem actors are demonstrated to proactively innovate their business model to drive ecosystem change, as compared to the ecosystem actors who reactively innovate their business model to adapt to change. It is argued that it is the ecosystem actors who proactively innovate a great number of sub-components of the business model who will enact a leadership role and steer the development of the ecosystem, whereas the other actors follow and will have to adapt to the ecosystem leaders. Thus, by combining ecosystem and business model innovation theory, it is demonstrated that in addition to that development at an ecosystem level induces business model innovation, business model innovation inversely induces ecosystem level development. / Elektrifieringen av tunga vägtransporter fortgår i Sverige. Flera elektrifieringstekniker växer fram och elektriska lastbilsmodeller adderas till lastbilstillverkarnas produktportföljer. Frågor kvarstår dock angående hur elektrifieringen av tunga vägtransporter kommer att utvecklas i praktiken, eftersom det har varit oklart vilka roller aktörerna i det framväxande elektriska tunga vägtransportekosystemet kommer att ta när det gäller vem som ska finansiera, bygga, äga, drifta och använda de tekniska komponenter som anses vara avgörande för denna övergång. Detta examensarbete adresserar detta problem genom en fallstudie av elektrifieringen av tunga vägtransporter längs E16 Borlänge - Gävle Hamn, baserad på intervjuer med företrädare för godsägare, åkerier, lastbilstillverkare, hamnmyndigheten, elnätsägare och laddinfrastruktursföretag. Genom att utforska de varierande uppfattningarna av övergången till elektrifierad tung vägtransport, bidrar fallstudien med insikter i hur ekosystemsaktörer hanterar möjligheter och utmaningar genom affärsmodellsinnovation och därmed bidrar till ekosystemets utveckling. Först och främst behandlar examensarbetet hur ekosystemsaktörerna uppfattar affärsmodellsrelaterade möjligheter och utmaningar med övergången till elektriska tunga vägtransporter, vilka roller dessa aktörer potentiellt skulle kunna tänka sig att ta i övergången och vilka roller som anses vara kritiska. Från intervjuerna med företrädare för ekosystemsaktörerna identifieras ett stort antal möjligheter och utmaningar, samt olika uppfattningar om specifika möjligheter, utmaningar och roller. Dessa olika uppfattningar påstås bidra till komplexiteten i det framväxande ekosystemet, utöver de multilaterala och komplementära relationerna mellan dessa aktörer. Dessutom tyder resultaten på att sådan komplexitet skulle kunna hanteras av en eller flera ekosystemsaktörer som intar en ledarroll för att på så vis vägleda ekosystemsutvecklingen i dess tidiga skede. Vidare behandlas frågan kring hur ekosystemsaktörerna hanterar de upplevda möjligheterna och utmaningarna genom att innovera sina affärsmodeller och hur de därmed deltar i utvecklingen av ekosystemet. Från intervjuerna med företrädare för ekosystemsaktörerna påvisas det att ekosystemsaktörerna utvecklar alla utom en delkomponent av affärsmodellen, för att hantera möjligheter och utmaningar. Det framgår även att vissa aktörer innoverar sin affärsmodell i en större utsträckning än andra aktörer och därmed hanterar en större mängd möjligheter och utmaningar. Därtill belyses det att vissa ekosystemsaktörer förnyar sin affärsmodell på ett proaktivt sätt för att driva ekosystemsförändring, jämfört med de ekosystemsaktörer som förnyar sin affärsmodell reaktivt för att anpassa sig till förändring. Resultatet pekar också på att det är de ekosystemsaktörer som proaktivt förnyar ett stort antal delkomponenter av affärsmodellen som kommer att ta en ledarroll och styra utvecklingen av ekosystemet, medan resterande aktörer följer efter och kommer att behöva anpassa sig till ekosystemsledarna. Således, genom att kombinera ekosystems- och affärsmodellsinnovationsteori, påvisas det att utöver att utveckling på en ekosystemsnivå kan medföra affärsmodellsinnovation, kan affärsmodellsinnovation omvänt medföra ekosystemsutveckling.
103

Att vara kvinna i transportbranschen : En kvalitativ studie om kvinnors karriärmöjligheter, hinder och vägen mot en jämställd bransch / To be a woman in the transport industry : A qualitative study on women's career opportunities, barriersand the path towards a gender-equal industry

Larsson, Rasmus, Jersgren, Marie January 2024 (has links)
Gender equality work is ongoing within the transport industry. The industry has a reputationof being male-dominated which may be the reason why fewer women are attracted to it.Previous research shows that there are clear norms and stereotypes within male-dominatedprofessions where women face challenges such as harassment, exclusion, prejudices, andissues with work-life balance. Previous research also presents opportunities and femalequalifications such as women being more cooperative, selfless, and less risk-taking than men. The aim of the study is to investigate how transport companies are working towards genderequality and examine the barriers and opportunities that women in the transport industry face.The study was conducted through a qualitative method, where semi-structured interviewswere conducted with a total of eleven people in leadership positions and truck drivers in threeselected transport organizations. The material provided by the respondents through their ownexperiences and perceptions has been interpreted and categorized, which is presented in theempirical chapter. The results of the study show that transport organizations are actively working to promotegender equality in the industry, requiring active marketing from companies and the presenceof female role models within the organization to increase female participation. The results ofthe study also show barriers that women face, such as work-life balance, stereotypes, andexclusion, as well as career opportunities provided to women through internal trainingprograms. By breaking norms and creating an inclusive work environment, companies canattract more women to the industry. / Jämställdhetsarbetet pågår aktivt inom transportbranschen. Branschen har en bild av att varamansdominerad vilket kan vara orsaken till att färre kvinnor söker sig dit. Tidigare forskningvisar på att det finns tydliga normer och stereotyper inom mansdominerade yrken och därkvinnor står inför utmaningar såsom trakasserier, exkludering, fördomar och problem med attfå till arbetslivsbalansen. Tidigare forskning presenterar även möjligheter och kvinnligakvalifikationer såsom att kvinnor är mer samarbetsvilliga, de är osjälviska och är mindreriskbenägna än män. Syftet med studien undersöker hur transportföretag arbetar med jämställdhetsarbete samtundersöker de hinder och möjligheter som kvinnor i transportbranschen står inför. Studien hargenomförts genom en kvalitativ metod där vi utfört semistrukturerade intervjuer med totaltelva personer på ledande positioner samt lastbilschaufförer i tre utvaldatransportorganisationer. Materialet respondenterna tillhandahöll oss genom sina egnaerfarenheter och upplevelser har vi tolkat och kategoriserat, vilka presenteras i det empiriskakapitlet. Resultatet av studien visar att transportorganisationer arbetar aktivt med att främja enjämställd bransch. Det krävs en aktiv marknadsföring från företagen samt att det kvinnligadeltagandet ökar när det finns kvinnliga förebilder inom organisationen. Studiens resultatvisar även hinder som kvinnor står inför såsom arbetslivsbalans, stereotyper och exkludering,men även vilka karriärmöjligheter som ges till kvinnor via internutbildningar. Genom attföretag bryter normer och skapar ett inkluderande arbetsklimat kan fler kvinnor attraheras tillbranschen.
104

Bezpečná silniční přeprava vybraných nebezpečných chemických látek / Safety Road Transport of Selected Hazardous Chemical Substances

Ullmannová, Silvie January 2011 (has links)
Theme of diploma thesis is Safety road transport of selected hazardous chemical substances. I drew from domestic and foreign literary sources over the past ten years. Thesis is directed to legislace the Czech Republic and the European Union. The other diploma thesis is directed choose dangerous chemical substances and informatic systems, which this substances give altogether. Fourth topic includes safety road transport, sign for theit safety and documents for road transport. There are actual situation of safety road transport in South Moravia. There are steps, when the accident with dangerous chemical substances happen and typical scenarious of accidents. In practise part of diploma thesis are wrote statistics of accident ADR and their reason. There is graphs of statistics with describe. In diploma thesis are describe organization and technical disposal for better safety road transport of dangerous substances. In the end of practical part is modelling situation with accident for the most horrible falls to people and environment.
105

Analýza podmínek kabotáže v silniční nákladní dopravě ve vybraném státě EU / Analysis of Conditions for Cabotage in Road Haulage in Selected EU Country

Večeřa, Petr January 2013 (has links)
The thesis describes conditions for carrying out cabotage in road freight transport, in comparison to current and past development at the EU level, and in transport policy of the EU described in the primary law. The most current changes at the field of cabotage are a good precondition for the future growth of this type of transport. The issue of cabotage could be described in three groups of topics, the first being the unified EU regulations of cabotage and conditions set for carrying out cabotage, the second concerns topics, that are similar in every EU country due to harmonization of national law, for example the payment of VAT, admission to the occupancy of road haulier or technical conditions for vehicles. The third group deals with matters that are different in every EU country, e.g. toll systems. Carrying out cabotage is therefore to be adjusted to all aforesaid conditions, which have a direct influence to the economical background of cabotage transports.
106

Avaliação técnico-econômica das principais tendências e alternativas do transporte rodoviário nacional sob o ponto de vista energético e ambiental / Technical economical evaluation of the main tendencies and alternatives of the Brazilian on-road transportation under energy and environmental perspectives

Figueiredo, Silvio de Andrade 21 October 2013 (has links)
Ferramentas computacionais, baseadas em modelos de inventários, que consigam predizer, com precisão apropriada, o consumo de combustíveis e as emissões veiculares, principais motivadores do desenvolvimento automotivo atual, são fundamentais para a elaboração de políticas públicas eficazes vinculadas a essas questões. No Brasil, apesar de afetarem significativamente a sociedade, muitas das intervenções governamentais nesse segmento são realizadas sem a adequada avaliação de seus impactos. Isso ocorre ou porque a importância dessas ferramentas nem sempre é reconhecida ou por não se ter ferramentas apropriadas. O objetivo deste trabalho foi o de desenvolver uma ferramenta de prognóstico do consumo de combustíveis e das emissões da frota rodoviária, estatisticamente consistente, que pudesse ser utilizada para esse propósito. Para tanto, inicialmente buscou-se identificar os aspectos relacionados às questões que deveriam ser considerados nesse desenvolvimento, por meio do levantamento das tendências evolutivas e alternativas que estão sendo apresentadas relativas a combustíveis, tecnologia veicular e sistemas de transportes. A seguir foram revistos os principais modelos e ferramentas públicos, nacionais e estrangeiros, dessa natureza. E, diante da constatação que eles não poderiam ser empregados, apesar dos limites impostos pela disponibilidade de dados, foi proposta uma nova abordagem para se atingir esse objetivo. Primeiro foi desenvolvido um conjunto de planilhas integrando todos os dados e cálculos de um modelo bottom-up similar ao utilizado nos inventários de emissões tóxicas nacionais, totalmente interconectado e configurado para facilitar, por meio de um processo iterativo, o ajuste fino das estimativas mais incertas, de forma que os consumos totalizados resultantes do modelo coincidissem tanto quanto possível com os consumos observados no país. A seguir, foram desenvolvidos modelos econométricos, para estimar os consumos totalizados de combustíveis a partir de indicadores econômicos pertinentes. E pela inserção desses modelos econométricos no modelo bottom-up anterior, foi gerado um modelo híbrido que permite inventariar e prognosticar, segregadas por classes, o consumo de combustíveis e as emissões veiculares. Os consumos de combustíveis obtidos por meio desses modelos, quando comparados com valores observados, forneceram resultados estatisticamente robustos, que podem ser, em algumas condições, convertidos na emissão de CO2. O mesmo não é possível afirmar com relação às demais emissões, inclusive em função da dificuldade de vincular as fontes emissoras a indicadores de qualidade do ar, o que não invalida o uso do modelo híbrido para obtenção de resultados comparativos. Finalmente, os modelos foram submetidos a análise sensibilidade e sua aplicabilidade foi verificada para alguns cenários. / Computational tools, based on inventory models, which are able to predict, with the appropriated accuracy, vehicular fuel consumption and emissions, main current drivers of the automotive development, are essentials for the development of effective public policies related to these issues. In Brazil, despite their significantly influence over the society, many government interventions in this segment are undertaken without the adequate assessment of their impacts. This happen because the importance of these tools is not always recognized or because proper tools are not available. The goal of this study was to develop a statistically consistent prognostic tool of road fuel consumption and emissions, which could be used for this purpose. Initially, by surveying the evolutionary trends and known alternatives related to fuels, vehicular technology and transportation systems, it was examined all the aspects that should be considered for this work. Next it was reviewed the main domestic and foreign public models and tools of this sector. Realizing that they could not be used, due to the limits imposed by data availability, it is proposed a new approach to achieve this goal. First it is developed a set of worksheets integrating all data and calculations of a bottom-up model, similar to the ones used in national inventories of toxic emissions. The set was interconnected and configured to facilitate, through an iterative process, the fine tuning of the uncertain estimates, in such way that the model total consumptions as much as possible reproduce the fuel consumptions observed in the country. Next econometric models were developed to estimate total fuel consumptions based on identified relevant economic indicators. And inserting these econometric models in the previous bottom-up model, it was generated a hybrid model that allows inventorying and forecasting of fuel consumptions and vehicular emissions segregated by classes. When compared with the observed fuel consumptions, these models presented statistically robust results. Under some conditions, these results can be converted in CO2 emissions. The same cannot be said with respect to other emissions, partially due to the difficulty to link emission sources to air quality measurements, which does not invalidate the use of the hybrid model to obtain comparative results for these emissions. Finally, the models were submitted to a sensitivity analysis and their applicability was verified for some scenarios.
107

Power infrastructure requirements for road transport electrification

Nicolaides, Doros January 2018 (has links)
Deep decarbonisation of road transportation is challenging. One of the most potentially beneficial approaches is electrification which is the subject of this PhD thesis. A widespread penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) across a large proportion of road transport demand is needed to realise the benefits of an electrified transport sector. However, this is dependent on overcoming significant barriers. This study performs a systematic analysis of how proven power charging technologies could be used to unlock the barriers to widespread electrification of road transportation. Various road transport sectors and type of journeys are explored including aspects of autonomous operations and novel wireless power transfer technologies. For each operation, a framework is proposed that allows the exploitation of current and potential future electrification technologies to enable shifting towards EVs. Based on that, simulation tools and methods are developed to calculate the power requirements of EVs and determine a suitable charging infrastructure. The additional power demand, electric load and the implications for the electricity supply network are explored. The total expenditure needed and the CO2 emission savings are also calculated for each investigated operation. Transitional strategies include the electrification of bus routes, refuse collection functions, home deliveries and aspects of autonomous operations for public transportation within the boundaries of the cities. In the long-term, focus is given on passenger cars and freight vehicles for both urban and inter-urban journeys. A nationwide adoption of all electrification strategies proposed in this thesis would increase the peak power demand of Great Britain by approximately 38 GW (72% of the current peak) and the electricity consumption by 180 TWh per year (45% of current consumption). The total capital cost required is calculated at £225 billion which is similar to the cost of other large infrastructure projects of the country. The impact would be a significant aggregate saving of approximately 2,000 MtCO2 between the numbers calculated for today's norms (2018) and those calculated for 2050.
108

Nutzungsmöglichkeiten von Floating Car Data zur Verkehrsflussoptimierung

Körner, Matthias 13 August 2012 (has links) (PDF)
Floating Car Data (FCD) besitzen eine sehr breite Palette an Anwendungsmöglichkeiten, die aber teilweise noch keine massenhafte Verbreitung gefunden haben, auch wenn das Innovationspotenzial als sehr hoch eingeschätzt wird. Dies begründet sich in erster Linie durch die meist relativ großen Erfassungsintervalle bei der derzeitigen FCD-Erfassung. In Dresden ist ein Taxi-FCD-System in Betrieb, welches sich durch eine sehr hohe Detektionsdichte auszeichnet. Die Fahrzeugpositionen werden mindestens alle 5 Sekunden aufgezeichnet. Damit bestehen ausgezeichnete Möglichkeiten, mögliche Mehrwerte zu prüfen und Prototypen zu etablieren. Getestet wurde u. a. die Generierung von Straßennetzabbildern. Im Dauerbetrieb befindet sich die FCD-basierte Verkehrslageermittlung.
109

A Framework to Measure the Socio-Economic Impact of Development Programs Using Malmquist Index

Devaraj, H January 2015 (has links) (PDF)
The main objective of this research is to evaluate the socio economic impact of the development programs like MGNREGA, JnNURM and development of Roads project, on the intended target area. The entire thesis can be divided in to two parts; (1) developing method to evaluate the socio economic impact assessment and (2) case studies. Two different techniques were used to evaluate the change in the productivity. Initially the change is measure by calculating the difference in the efficiencies between two time period using base period and current period production technologies. To illustrate this method a case study of MGNREGA has been considered to evaluate the impact of seventeen districts of the country. From the results it is found that there is difficult in comparing the two efficiencies due to the scaling issue of two production technologies. Further Data Envelopment Analysis is used to evaluate the distance function in the calculation of Malmquist index (MI). MI gives the productivity change between two time periods and is calculated as the geometric mean of two ratios measured with reference to the time period and time period respectively. A new approach is presented by interpreting the two ratios of MI separately using the distance functions to identify the productivity change between two time periods. Three different regions were identified to determine the productivity change; improvement region which observe improvement in the productivity between two time periods, deterioration region which indicate deterioration in the productivity and status quo region suggesting the stagnation region. Two case studies i.e. Bangalore Metropolitan Transport Corporation and development of roads under the name “5054-Decongestion of Roads project” were considered. The impact of Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JnNURM) funds on the performance of Bangalore Metropolitan Transport Corporation (BMTC) is studied using the proposed method. The results suggest that for 50 percent of the overall productivity have improved due to the intervention. The deterioration is mainly because of the addition input surplus in terms of number of buses and output slack in terms of reduced load factor, effective distance travelled, operational costs and increase in number of breakdown and accident rates for these DMU’s. The socio economic impact of the roads developed by Government of Karnataka under the name of “5054-Decongestion of Roads project” in and around Bangalore was also studied using this method and the results shows that out of five DMU’s four DMU’s show improvement in the productivity.
110

Avaliação técnico-econômica das principais tendências e alternativas do transporte rodoviário nacional sob o ponto de vista energético e ambiental / Technical economical evaluation of the main tendencies and alternatives of the Brazilian on-road transportation under energy and environmental perspectives

Silvio de Andrade Figueiredo 21 October 2013 (has links)
Ferramentas computacionais, baseadas em modelos de inventários, que consigam predizer, com precisão apropriada, o consumo de combustíveis e as emissões veiculares, principais motivadores do desenvolvimento automotivo atual, são fundamentais para a elaboração de políticas públicas eficazes vinculadas a essas questões. No Brasil, apesar de afetarem significativamente a sociedade, muitas das intervenções governamentais nesse segmento são realizadas sem a adequada avaliação de seus impactos. Isso ocorre ou porque a importância dessas ferramentas nem sempre é reconhecida ou por não se ter ferramentas apropriadas. O objetivo deste trabalho foi o de desenvolver uma ferramenta de prognóstico do consumo de combustíveis e das emissões da frota rodoviária, estatisticamente consistente, que pudesse ser utilizada para esse propósito. Para tanto, inicialmente buscou-se identificar os aspectos relacionados às questões que deveriam ser considerados nesse desenvolvimento, por meio do levantamento das tendências evolutivas e alternativas que estão sendo apresentadas relativas a combustíveis, tecnologia veicular e sistemas de transportes. A seguir foram revistos os principais modelos e ferramentas públicos, nacionais e estrangeiros, dessa natureza. E, diante da constatação que eles não poderiam ser empregados, apesar dos limites impostos pela disponibilidade de dados, foi proposta uma nova abordagem para se atingir esse objetivo. Primeiro foi desenvolvido um conjunto de planilhas integrando todos os dados e cálculos de um modelo bottom-up similar ao utilizado nos inventários de emissões tóxicas nacionais, totalmente interconectado e configurado para facilitar, por meio de um processo iterativo, o ajuste fino das estimativas mais incertas, de forma que os consumos totalizados resultantes do modelo coincidissem tanto quanto possível com os consumos observados no país. A seguir, foram desenvolvidos modelos econométricos, para estimar os consumos totalizados de combustíveis a partir de indicadores econômicos pertinentes. E pela inserção desses modelos econométricos no modelo bottom-up anterior, foi gerado um modelo híbrido que permite inventariar e prognosticar, segregadas por classes, o consumo de combustíveis e as emissões veiculares. Os consumos de combustíveis obtidos por meio desses modelos, quando comparados com valores observados, forneceram resultados estatisticamente robustos, que podem ser, em algumas condições, convertidos na emissão de CO2. O mesmo não é possível afirmar com relação às demais emissões, inclusive em função da dificuldade de vincular as fontes emissoras a indicadores de qualidade do ar, o que não invalida o uso do modelo híbrido para obtenção de resultados comparativos. Finalmente, os modelos foram submetidos a análise sensibilidade e sua aplicabilidade foi verificada para alguns cenários. / Computational tools, based on inventory models, which are able to predict, with the appropriated accuracy, vehicular fuel consumption and emissions, main current drivers of the automotive development, are essentials for the development of effective public policies related to these issues. In Brazil, despite their significantly influence over the society, many government interventions in this segment are undertaken without the adequate assessment of their impacts. This happen because the importance of these tools is not always recognized or because proper tools are not available. The goal of this study was to develop a statistically consistent prognostic tool of road fuel consumption and emissions, which could be used for this purpose. Initially, by surveying the evolutionary trends and known alternatives related to fuels, vehicular technology and transportation systems, it was examined all the aspects that should be considered for this work. Next it was reviewed the main domestic and foreign public models and tools of this sector. Realizing that they could not be used, due to the limits imposed by data availability, it is proposed a new approach to achieve this goal. First it is developed a set of worksheets integrating all data and calculations of a bottom-up model, similar to the ones used in national inventories of toxic emissions. The set was interconnected and configured to facilitate, through an iterative process, the fine tuning of the uncertain estimates, in such way that the model total consumptions as much as possible reproduce the fuel consumptions observed in the country. Next econometric models were developed to estimate total fuel consumptions based on identified relevant economic indicators. And inserting these econometric models in the previous bottom-up model, it was generated a hybrid model that allows inventorying and forecasting of fuel consumptions and vehicular emissions segregated by classes. When compared with the observed fuel consumptions, these models presented statistically robust results. Under some conditions, these results can be converted in CO2 emissions. The same cannot be said with respect to other emissions, partially due to the difficulty to link emission sources to air quality measurements, which does not invalidate the use of the hybrid model to obtain comparative results for these emissions. Finally, the models were submitted to a sensitivity analysis and their applicability was verified for some scenarios.

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