Bakgrund: Tidigare studier har påvisat möjligheter till riskjusterad överavkastning genom tillämpandet av multiplar i konstruerandet av portföljer med målsättning att fånga mean-reversal effekten. De genomförda studierna har dock inte beaktat teoretiskt bakomliggande fundamentala variabler. Följaktligen är det av intresse att undersöka i vilken utsträckning en portfölj, sammansatt med hjälp av regression på en multipel, kan härleda avvikelser från jämvikt i aktiepriser och därmed generera högre avkastning än berättigat av risknivån på en effektiv marknad. Syfte: Studien ämnar empiriskt undersöka om aktiers framtida avkastning kan relateras till det värde som härleds genom relationen mellan deras fundamentala multiplar och marknadens faktiska multiplar. Genomförande: Studien härleder med hjälp av regressioner på multiplar aktiers jämviktspris och tillämpar avvikelser från dessa vid konstruktion av portföljer. Slutsats: Resultaten visar att en strategi baserade på regressioner av EV/EBITDA-multipeln kan generera en högre avkastning än berättigat av den effektiva marknadshypotesen under perioden 2006-2016. Liknande resultat har påvisats för P/E-multipeln men dessa kan inte statistiskt säkerställas på 95 % signifikansnivå. När det gäller EV/S-multipeln har inga indikationer på riskjusterad överavkastning påvisats. / Background: Previous studies has presented evidence of abnormal stock returns when applying valuemultiple based strategies in assembling portfolios. The previous studies has not consideredthe fundamental theoretical values that determine the value multiple. As a consequence, it isof interest to examine the performance of portfolios assembled with respect to thesefundamental value drivers. With the use of regression analysis, it is of interest to find out ifportfolios can be constructed that outperform the market portfolio in a sense of risk adjustedreturns. Purpose: This study aims to empirically examine if future stock returns can be derived from therelationship between their fundamentally determined multiples and the market multiple. Implementation: With the help of regression analysis of value multiples this study derives their equilibriumprice of stocks and apply deviation from equilibrium in construction of portfolios. Conclusion: The results indicate that a strategy based on regressions of the EV/EBITDA multiple maygenerate superior risk adjusted portfolio returns than suggested by the efficient markethypothesis during the period between 2006-2016. Similar results was found using the P/Emultiple however these results could not be statistically confirmed. Using the EV/S multipleno risk adjusted abnormal returns could be proven.

The aim of this thesis is to verify and analyse presumed relations between selected macro-fundamentals, namely USD exchange rate, production index, interbank offered rate, inflation, money supply and two exogenous indices ( Standard & Poor's 500 and EURO STOXX 50), and CEE (Austria, Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary) or SEE (Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia, Romania) financial markets over the period from December 1995 to December 2015. In order to test the long-run cointegration relationships between studied markets and the set of macroeconomic variables, the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests are applied. The vector error correction model is used to confirm the long-run equilibrium interlinkages and the results show similar trend tendencies between stock indices and some of the macro-fundamentals in Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. To verify the short-run causal linkages, the Granger causality test is employed. Based on retrieved findings, the efficiency of studied markets with respect to Efficient Market Theory is reviewed. Our findings reveal several pairwise short-run causal impacts between studied macroeconomic indicators and stock indices. The only indicator which does not impact any stock market is the interbank offered rate. Moreover, according to our results, all CEE&SEE stock...

Syfte: Syftet med studien är att genom en eventstudieundersöka om och i sådan fall hur investerare låter sina investeringsbeslut påverkas av positiva respektive negativa sociala CSR-händelser, denna reaktion antas avspeglas i förändringar av aktiekurser. Teori: Den effektiva markandshypotesen och IntressentmodellenMetod: Undersökningens metod har utgått ifrån en kvantitativ ansats. Studiens empiri består av 86 sociala CSR händelser där den genomsnittliga ackumulerade abnormala avkastningen har mätts genom en eventstudie. I empiri-kapitlet finns även studiens hypotesprövning med enkelt t-test. Empiri: Eventstudienfinner ett samband mellan sociala CSR-händelser och investerares investeringsbeslut. Sambandet ger en negativ effekt på aktiekurserna. Effekten är starkare vid negativa sociala-CSR händelser än vid positiva. Hypotesprövningarna resulterade i att samtliga tre hypoteser förkastades, vilket innebär att det inte finns något samband mellan sociala CSR-händelser och investerares investeringsbeslut. Analys: Marknaden antas vara semi-effektiv, något mer vid negativa sociala CSR-händelser än positiva. Investerarna som är en primär intressent i ett företag värderar inte socialt CSR-arbete. Eventuellt ser de till och med det som värdeförstörande. Det är någon annan intressent än investerarna som driver på arbetet med socialt CSR hos ett företag. Slutsats: Eventstudienfinner ett samband mellan sociala CSR-händelser och investerares investeringsbeslut. Hypotesprövningarna resulterade i att samtliga tre hypoteser förkastades, vilket innebär att det inte finns något samband mellan sociala CSR-händelser och investerares investeringsbeslut. De motstridiga resultaten leder till slutsatsen att det inte med säkerhet går att besvara det undersökta problemet. / Purpose: The purpose of the study is, through an event study to determine whether if, and in such case how investors let their investment decisions be influenced by positive and negative social CSR events. This reaction is assumed to be reflected in changes of share prices. Theory: Theefficient market hypothesis model and the stakeholder theory.Method: A quantitative approach in the methodology has been undertaken. The study's empirical data consists of 86 social CSR events, where the average cumulative abnormal return has been measured by an event study. Three hypotheses has been tested using the simple t-test. Empiricism: The event study finds a correlation between social CSR events and investor's investment decisions. The correlation has a negative effect on stock prices. The effect is stronger for the negative social CSR events than for the positive events. Hypothesis tests resulted in that all three hypotheses were rejected, which means that there is no connection between the social CSR events and investor's investment decisions. Analysis: The market proves to be semi-strong efficient, slightly more so for negative social CSR events than for positive events. Investors as a primary stakeholder in a company do not value social CSR-work. Possibly they even see it as value destructive. There is other stakeholders than investors in companies, that are initiating working with social CSR. Conclusion: The event study finds a correlation between social CSR events and investor's investment decisions. The hypothesis tests resulted in that all three hypotheses were rejected, which means that there is no connection between the social CSR events and investor's investment decisions. The conflicting results leads to the conclusion that it is not possible to answer the investigated problem with sertainty.

隨著經濟發展，國民所得水準提高，國民儲蓄成為資本形成的重要來源，而資本市場之功能便在於匯集民間儲蓄，將其導入國內的各項實質建中，是故一個有效率的、健全的資本市場，不僅能讓資金之供需雙方互蒙其利，更可使整體經濟社會的實質財富與所得，隨著資金供給雙方的交互行為而得以持續成長。 　　在台灣目前資本市場發行及流通之信用工具中，不論是初級市場發行額，抑或是次級市場交易額，股票市場一直佔有最重要的地位，所以股票市場也就成為企業籌措長期資金最為倚重的信用工具。 　　正因為股票市場具有如此之重要性，因此本文先從理論與台灣近幾年來的相關實證，針對台灣股票市場效率性做一番釐清，再從所得出之結論進一步借用Galeotti & Schiantarelli (1994)的研究，將股價區分成基本面與非基本面，以及各自適當的代理變數，推導出投資與這些代理變數之間的關係。 　　最後就民國76年5月至83年11月期間，以台灣所有上市公司為研究對象做實證分析。 　　本研究之主要發現如下： 　　1. 台灣股價波動偏離基本價值具有市場異常現象，不符合效率市場假說。 　　2. 由股票市場價值區分出之基本面與非基本面因素，對投資均會產生影響，其中又以落後兩期之解釋變數最為顯著。此結果介於Bosworth (1975)與Merton & Fischer (1984)兩篇研究之間，非基本面亦會影響投資 決策，但非基本面之效果小於基本面效果。

Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka hur marknadseffektiviteten på Stockholmsbörsen har blivit påverkat av finanskrisen 2008, vilket genomförs genom att undersöka om bolag får avvikande avkastning vid publicering av kvartalsrapporter. Teori: Teorikapitlet utgår från den effektiva marknadshypotesen, där dess tre olika komponenter samt anomalier tas upp. Metod: Undersökningen genomförs med hjälp av en event studie och en hypotesprövning för att kontrollera hur effektiviteten på NasdaqOMX har blivit påverkad av finanskrisen. Undersökningen utgår ifrån en period på tre år, 2009-2011, och omfattar aktierna på index OMXS30. En insamling av kursdata från de 29 bolag som ingick i OMXS30 har skett, med hänsyn till datum för publicering av kvartalsrapporter. Detta ger totalt 261 observationer under dessa tre år. Empiri: Hypotesprövningen tillsammans med övrig empiri har visat att det kan finnas ett samband mellan publicering av kvartalsrapporter och bolagens aktiepris. Dock visar empirin att finanskrisens påverkan på effektiviteten har varit mycket liten. Analys: Analys av empirin tyder på att det finns tydliga tecken på att bolagens aktiepris påverkas vid publicering av kvartalsrapporter. Störst påverkan sker däremot publicering av kvartalsrapport ett och två. Analys av empirin visar även att marknaden har återhämtat sig snabbt efter finanskrisen. Slutsats: Undersökningen visar att det finns tecken på en mellanstark form av effektivitet på NasdaqOMX, även om denna inte är helt hundraprocentig. Dock är det svårt att dra en generell slutsats hur mycket 2008 års finanskris har påverkat denna effektivitet eftersom en finanskris har efterlöst en annan. / Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine how market efficiency on the Stockholm stock exchange has been affected by the financial crisis of 2008, which is carried out by examining if companies earn abnormal returns when publishing quarterly reports. Theoretical perspectives: The theory chapter is based on the efficient market hypothesis, where its three different components and anomalies are discussed. Methodology: The examination is carried out by an event study and a hypothesis test to control how the efficiency on NasdaqOMX has been affected by the financial crisis. The examination is based on a three year period, 2009-2011, and includes the stocks on the index OMXS30. Stock data has been collected from the 29 companies in the OMXS30, with regard to dates the quarterly reports were published. This gives a total of 261 observations under three years. Empirical outcome: The hypothesis test, together with other empirical results, has shown that there may be a relation between the publishing of quarterly reports and company stock price. However, empirical results show that the financial crisis effect on the market efficiency has been insignificant. Analysis: Analysis of the empirical results show that there are clear signs of change in company stock price when publishing quarterly reports. However, the significant change can be seen during the publishing of quarterly report one and two. Analysis of the empirical results also shows that the market has quickly readjusted after the financial crisis. Conclusion: The study shows that there are signs of semi-strong market efficiency on NasdaqOMX, even if this efficiency is not 100 percent strong. However, it is hard to come to a general conclusion on how much the financial crisis 2008 has affected this efficiency due to the fact that one financial crisis has resolved after another.

Syfte: Studien har utrett om aktiesplit genomförda på Stockholmsbörsen under åren 2004-2008 genererat överavkastning och i sådana fall om det har funnits några skillnader i överavkastning beroende på företagens storlek. Teori: Den effektiva marknadshypotesen, framförallt i dess semistarka form, har utgjort en teoretisk referensram för arbetet. Metod: En kvantitativ deduktiv forskningsansats har tillämpats med eventstudiemetodik som grund. Undersökningen behandlar en femårsperiod mellan 2004-2008 där ett urval av 56 stycken splitar mötte uppsatta kriterier. Dessa delades in i tre undergrupper beroende på bolagens kapitalstorlek vid splitgenomförandet. Kursdata för 250 dagar innan spliten och 250 dagar efter har samlats in för berörda bolag med hänsyn till splitdagen. OMXSPI har använts som jämförelseindex. Resultat: Resultatet tillsammans med hypotesprövning visar att överavkastning i samband med aktiesplit har påträffats för hela populationen under mätperioden. Ett möjligt samband mellan storleken på bolag och omfattningen överavkastning har även upptäckts. Den enskilt största överavkastningen uppmättes på splitdagen. Analys: En analys av resultaten pekar på att marknaden uppfattat aktiesplit som en positiv nyhet och i linje med tidigare forskning har det funnits överavkastning i tiden runt en aktiesplit. Vid uteslutande av en undergrupp som inte klarat hypotestestet kunde sambandet mellan företagsstorlek och omfattningen överavkastning till viss del bekräftas som negativt. Slutsats: Investerare har kunnat generera överavkastning i samband med aktiesplit på Stockholmsbörsen mellan 2004-2008. Resultatet tyder på ett negativt samband mellan företagsstorlek och överavkastning, däremot kan inte sambandet bekräftas tillfullo. / Purpose: The study has investigated whether or not stock splits on the Stockholm Stock Exchange during the years 2004-2008 generated positive abnormal return and in such case, has there been any difference in the positive abnormal return depending on firm size. Theory: The efficient market hypothesis, especially in its semi-strong form, has provided a theoretical framework for the essay. Method: A quantitative deductive research approach is applied with event study methodology used as basis. The study concerns a five-year period 2004-2008, where a selection of 56 splits met set criteria. These were divided into three groups depending on their capital size at the split date. The price data for 250 days before the split, and 250 days after were collected for the companies with regard to split day. The same data was collected for OMXSPI that was used as a benchmark. Results: The result together with hypothesis testing shows that positive abnormal return associated with stock split has been found in the overall population. A possible correlation between the firm size and the extent of positive abnormal returns has also been discovered. The single greatest positive abnormal return was measured on the split date. Analysis: An analysis of the results indicates that the market perceived stock split as positive news. There has been a positive abnormal return around the time of a stock split in line with previous research. The exclusion of a subgroup that failed hypothesis test revealed a partly confirmed negative relationship between firm size and the amount of positive abnormal returns. Conclusion: Investors have been able to generate positive abnormal returns in association with stock split on the Stockholm Stock Exchange from 2004 to 2008. The results suggest a negative correlation between firm size and positive abnormal returns, however, the correlation is not fully confirmed.

No description available.

Previous research has confirmed the existence of a value premium in a wide array of markets and using this value stock anomaly has yielded superior performance. This thesis investigates if one could take advantage of the existence of a value premium to deploy a dynamic investment strategy on the Swedish stock market (OMXS30) with focus on minimizing risk to achieve higher risk adjusted performance than the stock market index. The investment strategy implemented use Market-to-Book-Value to screen for both entry and exit signals and Modern Portfolio Theory, using the minimum-variance portfolio with short-selling constraints, to allocate assets within the portfolio. The investment strategy is evaluated using the Modigliani-Modigliani Risk Adjusted Performance measure. Conclusions from the thesis are that the strategy does outperform the Swedish stock market index, both in terms of nominal return and risk-adjusted performance. The suboptimal behaviour of investors where they overreact  to signals and unconsciously rely on heuristics is used to explain why this is possible. Market-to-Book-Value, using the first quartile as entry signal and third quartile as exit signal, is considered to be a successful key ratio to screen for value stocks.

Syfte: Studiens syfte är att undersöka om Riksbankens tillkännagivanden av reporänteförändringar har en effekt på den svenska aktiemarknaden, samt om det råder skillnader mellan fyra branscher i Stockholmsbörsen. Studien syftar även till att undersöka om det kan urskönjas en skillnad mellan branschernas räntekänslighet. Metod: Undersökningen baseras på en eventstudie med ett estimeringsfönster på 60 dagar före tillkännagivandet av reporänteförändringen, och ett eventfönster på 11 dagar. Urvalet består samtliga reporänteförändringar mellan 2001-2015, och av följande branscher, Finans & Fastighet, Industrivaror, Hälsovård, Teknologi, som är inhämtade från Stockholmsbörsen. Teori: Den teoretiska utgångspunkten i studien är teorin om den effektiva marknadshypotesen och teorier om reporäntan. Det presenteras även teorier om diskonteringsräntans effekt samt pris- och inkomstelasticitet. Finansiell psykologi, som är en invändning mot effektiva marknadshypotesen, redogörs dessutom tillsammans med tidigare forskning som har legat till grund för undersökningen. Slutsats: Studien resulterar i att det inte råder ett entydigt samband mellan Riksbankens tillkännagivanden av reporänteförändringar och den svenska aktiekursen. Resultatet illustrerar att det råder en skillnad mellan de valda branschernas räntekänslighet. Det går inte direkt att fastställa att den svenska marknaden är effektiv. / Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine if Sweden’s central bank announcements of the federal funds rate have an effect on the Swedish stock market, and whether there are differences between four sectors of the Stockholm Stock Exchange. The study also aims to investigate if there is a difference between the sectors interest rate sensitivity.  Method: The study is based on an event study with an estimation window of 60 days prior the announcement of the federal fund rate, and an event window of 11 days. The sample consists of all the announcement of the federal funds rate between 2001- 2015 and the following sectors, Finance & Real Estate, Industrials, Healthcare, Technology, who are acquired from the Stockholm Stock Exchange. Theory: The theoretical basis in this study is the theory of the efficient market hypothesis and theories about the federal funds rate. An introduction to theories about the discount rate and price and income elasticity is also presented in the study. Financial psychology, which is a statement of opposition against the efficient market hypothesis, is also introduced together with previous research which the examination is based on. Conclusion: The results show that there is no unambiguous correlation between Sweden’s central bank announcements of the federal funds rate and the Swedish stock price. The result illustrate that there is a difference between the selected sectors interest rate sensitivity. In summary, it’s established that the Swedish stock market cannot be seen as an efficient market.

Submitted by Andrei Francalacci de Castro Faria (andrei.francalacci@bndes.gov.br) on 2016-06-07T19:21:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Andrei Francalacci.pdf: 2215041 bytes, checksum: 671600e92ce454211d0c6493c0ba75bc (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2016-06-10T12:18:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Andrei Francalacci.pdf: 2215041 bytes, checksum: 671600e92ce454211d0c6493c0ba75bc (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2016-06-20T16:21:18Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Andrei Francalacci.pdf: 2215041 bytes, checksum: 671600e92ce454211d0c6493c0ba75bc (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-27T18:56:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Andrei Francalacci.pdf: 2215041 bytes, checksum: 671600e92ce454211d0c6493c0ba75bc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-05-31 / We studied the effects on Petrobras shares arising from the presentation of the earnings announcements of 2014´s third and fourth quarter, the first announcements made after the beginning of the corruption investigation called Operação Lava Jato. We evaluate the impact on prices of the company's stocks with an Event Study. As a control, we analyzed the effects of the disclosure of 1,152 quarterly earnings announcements on other 48 stocks that are part of the IBOVESPA´s theoretical portfolio in the period between 2010 and 2015. We seek to identify the presence of abnormal returns and verify that all information is automatically transferred to prices, suggesting the semi-strong efficiency of the Brazilian stock market in accordance with the Market Efficiency Hypothesis (EMH) developed by Fama (1970). At the end we compare the results of the two specific earning announcements studied with the observed results of other earnings announcements of Petrobras. No evidence was found of market efficiency during the 2010-2015 period neither for the group of 48 stocks, NÃO_PETRO, nor for the PETRO group, formed by the two Petrobras shares. We then analyzed the results in two periods. The first, called Bonanza (2010-2013), showed the same results as the 2010-2015 period, with no significant abnormal returns in the event window [0,1]. The results of the Crisis period (2014 -2015) showed that the information of the earning announcements ha a statistical significant impacted on the prices of the studied stocks. To analyzing the results of the individual earning announcements of Petrobras, we identified the need for additional information, extrapolating the scope of an event study. / Este trabalho propõe-se a estudar os efeitos sobre as ações da Petrobras decorrentes da apresentação dos balanços do terceiro e quarto trimestre de 2014, primeiros balanços apresentados após as denúncias da Operação Lava Jato. Avaliamos os impactos nos preços das ações da empresa através de um Estudo de Evento. Como controle, analisamos os efeitos da divulgação de 1.152 balanços trimestrais sobre outras 48 ações de que fazem parte da Carteira Teórica do IBOVESPA no período entre 2010 e 2015. Buscamos identificar a presença de retornos anormais e verificar se toda informação se transfere automaticamente aos preços, sugerindo a eficiência semiforte do mercado de ações brasileiro de acordo com a Hipótese de Eficiência do Mercado (HEM) desenvolvida por Fama (1970). Ao final comparamos os resultados específicos dos balanços em estudo com os resultados observados em outros balanços da própria Petrobras. Não foram encontradas evidências de eficiência de mercado durante o período 2010-2015 nem para o grupo de 48 ações, chamadas de NÃO_PETRO, nem para o grupo PETRO, formado pelas duas ações da Petrobras. Ao dividir os mesmos grupos em dois momentos, os resultados para o período batizado de Bonança (2010-2013), permanecem iguais ao do período completo, ao passo que o período chamado de Crise (2014 -2015) apresenta retornos anormais estatisticamente significativos nas janelas de eventos. Ao avaliar os retornos de balanços individuais da Petrobras, identificamos a necessidade de informações adicionais, extrapolando o escopo de um estudo de evento.