En esta tesis se estudia la producción agrícola y la productividad de los factores en la agricultura española (tierra, trabajo y simiente) desde 1752 hasta 1935. La tendencia a largo plazo de la producción agrícola se analiza desde una estimación directa (datos sobre cantidades), otra estimación indirecta (a través de los datos sobre precios). La productividad de los factores se estudia desde una doble perspectiva: la productividad simple de los factores y la productividad total de los factores. Para analizar la productividad simple de los principales factores de la agricultura se ha recurrido tanto a examinar la productividad media (vía de las cantidades) como la productividad marginal (vía de los precios, es decir, renta de la tierra y salarios agrícolas).Además de la utilización de nuevas fuentes en esta investigación (Cuadernos generales de la Riqueza, boletines oficíales provinciales, cartillas evaluatorias, etc.) y de la aplicación de la teoría económica para deducir cantidades a partir de la información disponible sobre precios, las principales conclusiones que se han alcanzado en esta tesis se centran en la constatación de un importante crecimiento de la producción agrícola (a una tasa anual acumulada entre 0,8 y el 1,5 por 100 desde 1799/1800 hasta 1900/05) y en el incremento de la productividad de la tierra, de la simiente y de la productividad total de los factores antes de finalizar el siglo XIX. / This thesis studies agricultural production and the productivity of factors for Spanish agriculture (land labour, and seed) from 1752 to 1935. The long-run trend of agricultural production is approached from direct estimates (information on quantities) and indirect estimates (information on prices). The productivity of factors is considered from a twofold viewpoint: the single productivity of factors and the total productivity of factors. In order to analyse the single productivity of the main agricultural factors, the thesis examines average productivity (quantities method) as well as marginal productivity (prices method), i.e. land rent and agricultural wages. To this goal, this research has extensively used new sources (Cuadernos de Riqueza, Boletines Oficiales Provinciales, cartillas evaluatorias) and has applied economic theory to deduce quantities from the available historical information on prices. The main conclusions obtained by this thesis deal with the existence of an important growth of agricultural production (annual rates accumulate between 0.8 and 1.5 per cent from 1799/1800 to 1900/1905) and an increase in land productivity, seed productivity and total factor productivity in Spain well before the end of the nineteenth century.

The present study is an attempt to analyze the impact of changing policy regime during the liberalization era on the behaviour of 81 sample firms in Indian electronics industry in terms of factor productivities. We categorise a period of 12 years (1993-2004) as the two phases of liberalisation: - Period/ Phase 1: 1993-1998 and Period/ Phase 2: 1999-2004. The 81 sample firms are segregated into four primary sub-sectors of electronics industry based on their use pattern: communication equipments, computer hardware, consumer electronics and other electronics. The objective is to trace the growth of output in the four sub-sectors in Indian electronics industry over two phases of liberalisation and to determine the relative contributions of Input Growth (IG) and Total Factor Productivity Growth (TFPG) to Output Growth (OG). Further, the study focuses on determining the relative contributions of Technological Progress (TP) and Technical Efficiency Change (TEC) to TFPG and establishes the influence of firm specific managerial decision making and management efficiency variables on TEC and TP. The methodology follows a three-step approach in order to achieve the above objectives. The first step is to determine a potential stochastic production function using stochastic frontier production function model and measure firm-wise technical inefficiency levels. The second step is to measure the growth of TFP over two phases and to derive the components TEC and TP. The third step measures the influence of management decision variables on TEC and TP using a frontier approach model on a panel data. The contribution of labour to output was found to be higher than the contribution of capital in all four sub-sectors. However, capital contribution improved in phase 2 relative to phase 1 for computer hardware and other electronics sub-sectors. Computer hardware was the only sub-sector that experienced an improvement in returns to scale from constant returns to scale in phase 1 to increasing returns to scale in phase 2 of liberalisation. The Technological Progress (TP) and Technical Efficiency Change (TEC) that contributed to TFPG exhibited a contrasting relationship for all the four sub-sectors in the electronics industry: TEC declined when there was high TP while it improved when there was a decline in TP. This could be because Indian electronics firms generally focus on either technology imports/ develop indigenous technology to achieve TP or to assimilate the imported/ indigenous technology for better use. The lag in assimilation of imported/ developed technology could be a reason for the negative relation between TEC and TP. The communication equipment sub-sector had a balanced growth in terms of TEC and TP among the four sub-sectors. The computer hardware and the other electronics sub-sectors were worse performers in terms of TEC in period 2 relative to period 1 and so had been the electronics industry as a whole. The computer hardware sub-sector had the highest average OG in period 2 relative to period 1 among all the sub-sectors due to relatively high contribution of IG. Other electronics sub-sector had the highest average TP that compensated for the negative average TEC. On an average, percentage contribution of TP to TFPG was high for the electronics industry and its sub-sectors in period 2 relative to period 1. This is an indication that the sub-sectors of Indian electronics industry have strived and achieved steady technological progress in the period of economic liberalisation to cope with the intensifying competition internally as well as externally. The sample firms in the electronics industry were in favour of towards external acquisition of sophisticated technology, which explains the relatively high contribution of TP to the TFPG of the industry. However, this was not followed up with adequate in-house R&D in order to develop indigenous technology or to absorb imported technology as a result of which TEC for the sub-sectors and the whole industry suffered. Growth in Operating Margin (OMG) and Growth in Returns on Capital Employed (ROCEG) generate additional revenue that could be ploughed back into the firm for improvement of its existing indigenous technology or absorption of imported technology thereby leading to improvement in TE and TP. The positive influence of OMG as well as ROCEG on TEC and TP for all the sub-sectors is an indication of efficient management in these sub-sectors in utilizing assets and profits to generate earnings. However, the trend of operating margin and returns on capital employed had been declining for all the sub-sectors. Inventory management proved to be costly for TP as financial resources diverted to maintain inventory had an undesirable effect on their indigenious technology. Most of the sample firms in the electronics industry were found to have incurred R&D expenditure to derive tax incentives. As a result the resources got diverted away from other creative operational or skill improvement efforts to unproductive and wasteful R&D activities. Thus, R&D did not have the desirable influence on the components of TFPG. The present study showed that unplanned and ad hoc technology imports or even raw material imports was not conducive to the growth of both the components of TFPG. Older firms need to develop their technology or adequately import better and more sophisticated technology. This would enable older (more experienced) electronic firms to overcome the negative influence of age, reflected in our analysis. This is, however, applicable to only those segments of the electronics industry where firms preferred to serve lower end of the market as well as lower end of the technological spectrum (eg. Computer hardware and other electronics sub-sectors). Electronics industry like any other capital goods industry offers scope for vertical integration. Management of the firms in electronics industry should emphasize on vertical integration, expansion of scale of operations and should initiate R&D investments to build up R&D base, among others to improve TEC and TP. This would also help to check the decline in operating margin and returns from invested capital among the firms. Thus, improved managerial effectiveness and decision making do help in the form of generating thereby surpluses facilitating to achieve higher TP and even TEC. Regional and State governments should provide adequate policy support and appropriate industrial infrastructure to electronic firms which would in turn improve their managerial effectiveness and TFPG.

Aunque las diferencias entre países en la productividad total de los factores (TFP) sectorial está en el corazón de la teoría Ricardiana de comercio y en el de muchos modelos de crecimiento y desarrollo, muy poco se sabe acerca de su forma y tamaño. Los dos primeros artículos intentan rellenar esta brecha utilizando un modelo de comercio híbrido de Ricardo-Heckscher-Ohlin y datos bilaterales de comercio sectorial. Se brinda un conjunto comparable de productividades para sectores industriales en más de sesenta países en todas las etapas de desarrollo, y las estimaciones se aplican para probar teorías de desarrollo que tienen implicancias sobre el patrón de productividades sectoriales entre países. El tercer artículo se enfoca en los efectos de la liberalización comercial sobre la estructura productiva de los países. Se estiman matrices de transición que describen la dinámica de especialización en economías liberalizadas. La sección final del artículo relaciona empíricamente la especialización sectorial con la dotación e intensidad de factores

This thesis brings new evidence on different strands of the literature in macro-finance, international economics and macroeconometrics. The first two chapters combine both theoretical models and empirical techniques to deepen the analysis of important economic phenomena such as the effects of economic policy uncertainty on financial markets, and convergence between emerging market economies and advanced economies on these markets. The third chapter of the thesis, which is co-authored with Hafedh Bouakez, contributes to the literature on the identification of news shocks about future productivity. In the first chapter, I study the effect of monetary and fiscal policy uncertainty on nominal U.S. government bond yields and premiums. I use a New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model featuring recursive preferences, and both real and nominal rigidities. Policy uncertainty in the DSGE model is defined as a mean-preserving spread of the policy shock distributions. My results show that: (i) When the economy is subject to unpredictable shocks to the volatility of policy instruments, the level of the median yield curve is lower, its slope increases and risk premiums decrease relative to an economy with no stochastic volatility. This negative effect on the level of yields and premiums is due to the asymmetric impact of positive versus negative shocks; (ii) A typical policy risk shock increases yields at all maturities. This is because the fall in yields triggered by higher demand for bonds by households, in order to hedge against higher predicted consumption volatility, is outweighed by the increase in yields due to higher inflation risk premiums. Finally, I use several empirical measures economic policy uncertainty in a structural VAR model to show that the above effects of policy risk shocks on yields are consistent empirical evidence. Chapter 2 looks at the market for government bonds in 12 advanced economies and 8 emerging market economies, during the period 1999-2012, and consider the question of whether or not there has been any convergence of risk between emerging market and advanced economies. I distinguish between default risk and other types of risk, such as inflation, liquidity and exchange rate risk. I make the theoretical case that forward risk premium differentials can be used to distinguish default risk and other risks. I then construct forward risk premium differentials and use these to make the empirical case that there has been little convergence associated with the other types of risk. I also show that differences in countries' macroeconomic fundamentals and political risk play an important role in explaining the large "non-default" risk differentials observed between emerging and advanced economies. Chapter 3 proposes a novel strategy to identify anticipated and unanticipated technology shocks, which leads to results that are consistent with the predictions of conventional new-Keynesian models. It shows that the failure of many empirical studies to generate consistent responses to these shocks is due to impurities in the available TFP series, which lead to an incorrect identification of unanticipated technology shocks---whose estimated effects are inconsistent with the interpretation of these disturbances as supply shocks. This, in turn, contaminates the identification of news shocks. My co-author, Hafedh Bouakez, and I propose an agnostic identification strategy that allows TFP to be affected by both technological and non-technological shocks, and identifies unanticipated technology shocks via sign restrictions on the response of inflation. The results show that the effects of both surprise TFP shocks and news shocks are generally consistent with the predictions of standard new-Keynesian models. In particular, the inflation puzzle documented in previous studies vanishes under the novel empirical strategy. / Cette thèse présente de nouveaux résultats sur différentes branches de la littérature en macro-finance, économie internationale et macro-économétrie. Les deux premiers chapitres combinent des modèles théoriques et des techniques empiriques pour approfondir l’étude de phénomènes économiques importants tels que les effets de l’incertitude liée aux politiques économiques sur les marchés financiers et la convergence entre les pays émergents et les pays avancés sur ces marchés. Le troisième chapitre, qui est le fruit d’une collaboration avec Hafedh Bouakez, contribue à la littérature sur l’identification des chocs anticipés sur la productivité future. Dans le premier chapitre, j’étudie l’effet de l’incertitude relative aux politiques monétaire et fiscale sur les rendements et les primes de risque associés aux actifs nominaux du gouvernement des États-Unis. J’utilise un modèle d’équilibre stochastique et dynamique de type néo-Keynesien prenant en compte des préférences récursives des agents et des rigidités réelles et nominales. En utilisant un modèle VAR structurel. L’incertitude relative aux politiques économiques est définie comme étant une expansion de la distribution des chocs de politique, expansion au cours de laquelle la moyenne de la distribution reste inchangée. Mes résultats montrent que : (i) Lorsque l’économie est sujette à des chocs imprévisibles sur la volatilité des instruments de politique, le niveau médian de la courbe des rendements baisse de 8,56 points de base, sa pente s’accroît de 13,5 points de base et les primes de risque baissent en moyenne de 0.21 point de base. Cet effet négatif sur le niveau de rendements et les primes de risque est dû à l’impact asymétrique des chocs de signes opposés mais de même amplitude; (ii) Un choc positif à la volatilité des politiques économiques entraîne une hausse des rendements pour toutes les durées de maturité. Cet effet s’explique par le comportement des ménages qui, à la suite du choc, augmentent leur demande de bons dans le but de se prémunir contre les fortes fluctuations espérées au niveau de la consommation, ce qui entraîne des pressions à la baisse sur les rendements. De façon simultanée, ces ménages requièrent une hausse des taux d’intérêt en raison d’une espérance d’inflation future plus grande. Les analyses montrent que le premier effet est dominant, entraînant donc la hausse des rendements observée. Enfin, j’utilise plusieurs mesures empiriques d’incertitude de politiques économiques et un modèle VAR structurel pour montrer les résultats ci-dessus sont conformes avec les faits empiriques. Le Chapitre 2 explore le marché des bons du gouvernement de 12 pays avancés et 8 pays émergents, pendant la période 1999-2012, et analyses la question de savoir s’il y a eu une quelconque convergence du risque associé à ces actifs entre les deux catégories de pays. Je fais une distinction entre risque de défaut et autres types de risque, comme ceux liés au risque d’inflation, de liquidité ou de change. Je commence par montrer théoriquement que le différentiel au niveau des primes de risque « forward » entre les deux pays peut être utilisé pour faire la distinction entre le risque « forward » et les utilise pour montrer qu’il est difficile de conclure que ces autres types de risque dans les pays émergents ont convergé vers les niveaux différents de risque politique, jouent un rôle important dans l’explication des différences de primes de risque – autres que celles associées au risque de défaut– entre les pays émergents et les pays avancés. Le Chapitre 3 propose une nouvelle stratégie d’identification des chocs technologiques anticipés et non-anticipés, qui conduit à des résultats similaires aux prédictions des modèles néo-Keynésiens conventionnels. Il montre que l’incapacité de plusieurs méthodes empiriques à générer des résultats rejoignant la théorie est due à l’impureté des données existences sur la productivité totale des facteurs (TFP), conduisant à mauvaise identification des chocs technologiques non-anticipés-dont les effets estimés ne concordent pas avec l’interprétation de tels chocs comme des chocs d’offre. Ce problème, à son tour, contamine l’identification des chocs technologiques anticipés. Mon co-auteur, Hafedh Bouakez, et moi proposons une stratégie d’identification agnostique qui permet à la TFP d’être affectée de façon contemporaine par deux chocs surprises (technologique et non technologique), le premier étant identifié en faisant recours aux restrictions de signe sur la réponse de l’inflation. Les résultats montrent que les effets des chocs technologiques anticipés et non-anticipés concordent avec les prédictions des modèles néo-Keynésiens standards. En particulier, le puzzle rencontré dans les travaux précédents concernant les effets d’un choc non-anticipé sur l’inflation disparaît lorsque notre nouvelle stratégie est employée.

This doctoral thesis consists of three essays. In the first essay I investigate the presence of productivity convergence in eight regional pulp and paper industries of U.S. and Canada over the period of 1971-2005. Expectation of productivity convergence in the pulp and paper industries of Canadian provinces and of the states of its southern neighbour is high since they are trading partners with fairly high level of exchanges in both pulp and paper products. Moreover, they share a common production technology that changed very little over the last century. I supplement the North-American regional data with national data for two Nordic countries, Finland and Sweden, which provides a scope to compare the productivity performances of four leading players in global pulp and paper industry. I find evidence in favour of the catch-up hypothesis among the regional pulp and paper industries of U.S. and Canada in my sample. The growth performance is at the advantage of Canadian provinces relative to their U.S. counterparts. However, it is not good enough to surpass the growth rates of this industry in the two Nordic countries. It is well-known that econometric productivity estimation using flexible functional forms often encounter violations of curvature conditions. However, the productivity literature does not provide any guidance on the selection of appropriate functional forms once they satisfy the theoretical regularity conditions. The second chapter of my thesis provides an empirical evidence that imposing local curvature conditions on the flexible functional forms affect total factor productivity (TFP) estimates in addition to the elasticity estimates. Moreover, I use this as a criterion for evaluating the performances of three widely used locally flexible cost functional forms - the translog (TL), the Generalized Leontief (GL), and the Normalized Quadratic (NQ) - in providing TFP estimates. Results suggest that the NQ model performs better than the other two functional forms in providing TFP estimates. The third essay capitalizes on newly available high frequency energy consumption data from commercial buildings in the District of Columbia (DC) to provide novel insights on the realized energy use impacts of energy efficiency standards in commercial buildings. Combining these data with hourly weather data and information on tenancy contract structure I evaluate the impacts of energy standards, contractual structure of utility bill payments, and energy star labeling on account level electricity consumption. Using this unique panel dataset, the analysis takes advantage of detailed building-level characteristics and the heterogeneity in the building age distribution, resulting in buildings constructed before and after mandatory energy standards came into effect. Estimation results suggest that in commercial buildings constructed under a code, electricity consumption is lower by about 0.48 kWh per cooling degree hour. When tenants pay for their own utilities, consumption is lower by 0.82 kWh per cooling degree hour. The Energy Star effect is a 0.31 kWh reduction per cooling degree hour. Finally, peak savings for all three variables of interest occur at 2pm in the summer months, whereas peak summer marginal prices at DC's local electric utility occur at 5pm.

Cette thèse étudie comment le taux de change effectif réel (TCER) et ses mesures associées (volatilité du TCER et désalignement du TCER) affectent la croissance de la productivité totale des facteurs (CPTF). Elle analyse également les canaux par lesquels le TCER et ses mesures associées agissent sur la productivité totale des facteurs (PTF). La première partie étudie comment le TCER lui-Même, d'une part, et la volatilité du TCER, d'autre part, influencent la productivité. Une analyse du lien entre le niveau du TCER et la PTF dans le chapitre 1 indique qu'une appréciation de taux de change cause une augmentation de la PTF. Mais cet impact est également non- inéaire: en-Dessous du seuil, le TCER influence négativement la productivité tandis qu'au-Dessus du seuil il agit positivement. Les résultats du chapitre 2 illustrent que la volatilité du TCER affecte négativement la CPTF. Nous avons également constaté que la volatilité du TCER agit sur PTF selon le niveau du développement financier. Pour les pays modérément financièrement développés, la volatilité du TCER réagit négativement sur la productivité et n'a aucun effet sur la productivité pour les niveaux très bas et très élevés du développement financier. La deuxième partie examine les canaux par lesquels le TCER et ses mesures associées influencent la productivité. Les résultats du chapitre 3 illustrent que la volatilité du TCER a un impact négatif élevé sur l'investissement. Ces résultats sont robustes dans les pays à faible revenu et les pays à revenu moyens, et en employant une mesure alternative de volatilité du TCER. Le chapitre 4 montre que le désalignement du taux de change réel et la volatilité du taux de change réel affectent négativement les exportations. Il démontre également que la volatilité du taux de change réel est plus nocive aux exportations que le désalignement. Ces résultats sont corroborés par des résultats sur des sous-Échantillons de pays à bas revenu et à revenu moyen. / This dissertation investigates how the real effective exchange rate (REER) and its associated asurements (REER volatility and REER misalignment) affect total factor productivity growth (TFPG). It also analyzes the channels through which the REER and its associated measurements act on total factor productivity (TFP). The first part studies how the REER itself, on the one hand, and the REER volatility, on the other hand, influence productivity. An analysis of the link between the level of REER and TFP in chapter 1 reveals that an exchange rate appreciation causes an increase of TFP. But this impact is also nonlinear: below the threshold, real exchange rate influences negatively productivity while above the threshold it acts positively. The results of chapter 2 illustrate that REER volatility affects negatively TFPG. We also found that REER volatility acts on TFP according to the level of financial development. For moderately financially developed countries, REER volatility reacts negatively on productivity and has no effect on productivity for very low and very high levels of financial development. The second part examines the channels through which the REER and its associated measurements influence productivity. The results of chapter 3 illustrate that the exchange rate volatility has a strong negative impact on investment. This outcome is robust in low income and middle income countries, and by using an alternative measurement of exchange rate volatility. Chapter 4 show that both real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange rate volatility affect negatively exports. It also demonstrates that real exchange rate volatility is more harmful to exports than misalignment. These outcomes are corroborated by estimations on subsamples of Low- ncome and Middle-Income countries

科学研究費補助金 研究種目:一般研究(C) 課題番号:06630020 研究代表者:江崎 光男 研究期間:1994-1995年度 Discussion Paper No.41 中国経済のインフレーションと価格競争力 江崎光男･伊藤正一･王名･板倉健 1996年3月を含む