Traffic-related air pollution harms health, so whilst it would be advantageous to improve air quality, the socioeconomic impact of air pollution mitigation in Scotland is not fully understood. Evidence from research literature, current regulatory and policy directives and a socioeconomic analysis are required to assess the true health impact. This thesis presents the first health and socioeconomic analysis of traffic-related air pollution and health for Scotland. A critique of the literature was undertaken to determine the evidence base and the strength of evidence in terms of association and causation, between air pollution and ill health. The evidence was subsequently applied in epidemiological studies of Scottish residents, to assess the actual impact on health in Scotland. The perception of barriers and incentives for change were investigated to understand behavioural influences. Recent policy development in Scotland was reviewed, and a socioeconomic analysis of a proposed air pollution strategy in Scotland, was undertaken. The evidence from 30 cohort studies and nine literature reviews demonstrated a link between poor air quality, mortality and respiratory ill health, but the results for other health conditions were inconsistent. The links were associative rather than causal and therefore might be attributable to other factors other than air pollution. Furthermore, epidemiological studies on Scottish populations did not show health effects from traffic-related air pollution. The socioeconomic analysis suggested that an initial investment of between £27m and £44m to introduce Low Emission Zones (LEZ), and an effective active travel programme, might result in a saving of £38m in terms of Years of Life Lost (YLL) and reduction in sickness absence. It is unlikely that the Clean Air For Scotland Strategy will deliver improved air quality and health without substantial investment, better alignment of planning, and a greater public engagement to support public and active transport options.

La plupart des patients infectés par le VIH ont une charge virale qui peut être rendue indétectable par des combinaisons antirétrovirales hautement actives (cART); cependant, il existe des effets secondaires aux traitements. L'utilisation des modèles mécanistes dynamiques basés sur des équations différentielles ordinaires (ODE) a considérablement amélioré les connaissances de la dynamique HIV-système immunitaire et permet d'envisager une personnalisation du traitement. L'objectif de ces travaux de thèse est d'améliorer les techniques statistiques d'estimation de paramètres dans les modèles mécanistes dynamiques afin de proposer des stratégies de surveillance et d'optimisation des traitements. Après avoir introduit NIMROD un algorithme d'estimation bayésienne basé sur une maximisation de la vraisemblance pénalisée, nous montrons la puissance des approches mécanistes dynamiques pour l'évaluation des effets traitements par rapport aux méthodes descriptives d'analyse des trajectoires des biomarqueurs. Puis, nous définissons le « modèle à cellules cibles », un système ODE décrivant la dynamique du VIH et des CD4. Nous montrons qu'il possède de bonnes capacités prédictives. Nous proposons une preuve de concept de la possibilité de contrôler individuellement la dose de traitement. Cette stratégie adaptative réajuste la dose du patient en fonction de sa réaction à la dose précédente par une procédure bayésienne. Pour finir, nous introduisons la possibilité de l’'individualisation des changements de cART. Ce travail passe par la quantification in vivo d'effets de cART en utilisant des indicateurs d'activité antivirale in vitro. Nous discutons la validité des résultats et les étapes méthodologiques nécessaires pour l'intégration de ces méthodes dans les pratiques cliniques. / Most HIV-infected patients viral loads can be made undetectable by highly active combination of antiretroviral therapy (cART), but there are side effects of treatments. The use of dynamic mechanistic models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) has greatly improved the knowledge of the dynamics of HIV and of the immune system and can be considered for personalization of treatment. The aim of these PhD works is to improve the statistical techniques for estimating parameters in dynamic mechanistic models so as to elaborate strategies for monitoring and optimizing treatments. We present an algorithm and program called NIMROD using Bayesian inference based on the maximization of the penalized likelihood. Then, we show the power of dynamic mechanistic approaches for the evaluation of treatment effects compared to methods based on the descriptive analysis of the biomarkers trajectories. Next, we build the “target cells model “, an ODE system of the dynamics between the HIV and CD4. We demonstrate it has good predictive capabilities. We build a proof of concept for drug dose individualization. It consists in tuning the dose of the patient based on his reaction to the previous doses using a Bayesian update procedure. Finally, we introduce the possibility of designing an individualized change of cART. This work involves the quantification of in vivo effects of cART using in vitro antiviral activity indicators. We discuss the validity of the results and the further steps needed for the integration of these methods in clinical practice.

Esta tese examina o problema de detecção de conectividade entre séries temporais no sentido de Granger no caso em que a natureza não linear das interações não permite sua determinação por meio de modelos auto-regressivos lineares vetoriais. Mostra-se que é possível realizar esta detecção com auxílio dos chamados métodos de Kernel, que se tornaram populares em aprendizado por máquina (\'machine learning\') já que tais métodos permitem definir formas generalizadas de teste de Granger, coerência parcial direcionada e função de transferência direcionada. Usando simulações, mostram-se alguns exemplos de detecção nos quais fica também evidente que resultados assintóticos deduzidos originalmente para estimadores lineares podem ser generalizados de modo análogo, mostrando-se válidos no presente contexto kernelizado. / This work examines the connectivity detection problem between time series in the Granger sense when the nonlinear nature of interactions determination is impossible via linear vector autoregressive models, but is, nonetheless, feasible with the aid of the so-called Kernel methods that are popular in machine learning. The kernelization approach allows defining generalised versions for Granger tests, partial directed coherence and directed transfer function, which the simulation of some examples shows that the asymptotic detection results originally deducted for linear estimators, can also be employed under kernelization if suitably adapted.

Ce travail de recherche propose l’algorithme de calcul pour la modélisation d’un scanner ultrasonore sans contact à ondes de surface. L’approche proposée permet de prendre en compte l’ouverture finie du récepteur, l’atténuation d’air et la réponse électrique he de l’ensemble émetteur-récepteur. Le milieu avec l’atténuation (air et milieu testé) est modélisé dans le domaine temporel à l’aide de la fonction de Green causale permettant la caractérisation large bande. Le réponse he est déterminée de manière expérimentale en utilisant la procédure spatialement développée, incluant la déconvolution des effets d’atténuation. Le modèle est implémenté numériquement en utilisant l’approche de la Représentation Discrète et les résultats obtenus sont validés expérimentalement. La technique chirp est utilisée afin d’améliorer le rapport signal/bruit. Il est démontré que lorsque l’atténuation dans l’air, la dimension de récepteur et la réponse he reconstituée avec précision sont correctement pris en compte, la réponse impulsionnelle du système peut être prédite avec l’erreur de 2-5 %. L’introduction de la taille du récepteur est essentielle pour la prédiction dans le champ proche. Le temps de calcul obtenu est considérablement plus court que le temps nécessaire pour les méthodes FEM. A l’aide de ce modèle l’influence des réglages du scanner est étudiée. Les résultats obtenus permettent de formuler des recommandations pour les réglages optimaux / In this research the time-domain model for the prediction of an acoustic field in an air-coupled, non-contact, surface wave scanner is proposed. The model takes into account the finite size of the aperture receiver, attenuation in air, and the electric response he of the emitter-receiver set he. The attenuation is characterized by a causal time-domain Green’s function, allowing the wideband attenuation of a lossy medium (air and solid tested sample) obeying the power law to be modelled. The response he is recovered experimentally using an original especially developed procedure which includes the deconvolution of air absorption effects. The model is implemented numerically using a Discrete Representation approach and validated experimentally. In order to improve the signal to noise ratio the chirp technique is used. It is shown that when the attenuation in air, the receiver size, and the accurately recovered response he, are correctly taken into account, the model allows the system’s impulse response to be very accurately predicted, with errors ranging between 2-5%. Inclusion of the size of the receiver dimension in the model appears to be crucial to the accuracy of the near field predictions. The obtained computation efficiency is much better that efficiency of FEM methods. The influence of typical user defined settings has been investigated. The obtained conclusions will be used as the recommendations for further use

Using 1980 - 2012 annual data, the study empirically investigates the dynamic relationship between financial development and economic growth in three developing countries (South Africa, Brazil and Kenya) and three developed countries (United States of America, United Kingdom and Australia). The study was motivated by the current debate regarding the role of financial development in the economic growth process, and their causal relationship. The debate centres on whether financial development impacts positively or negatively on economic growth and whether it Granger-causes economic growth or vice versa. To this end, two models have been used. In Model 1 the impact of bank- and market-based financial development on economic growth is examined, while in Model 2 it is the causality between the two that is explored. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction based causality test, the results were found to differ from country to country and over time. These results were also found to be sensitive to the financial development proxy used. Based on Model 1, the study found that the impact of bank-based financial development on economic growth is positive in South Africa and the USA, but negative in the U.K – and neither positive nor negative in Kenya. Elsewhere the results were inconclusive. Market-based financial development was found to impact positively in Kenya, USA and the UK but not in the remaining countries. Based on Model 2, the study found that bank-based financial development Granger-causes economic growth in the UK, while in Brazil they Granger-cause each other. However, in South Africa, Kenya and USA no causal relationship was found. In Australia the results were inconclusive. The study also found that in the short run, market-based financial development Granger-causes economic growth in the USA but that in South Africa and Brazil, the reverse applies. On the other hand bidirectional causality was found to prevail in Kenya in the same period. / Economics / D. Com. (Economics)

本文使用共積檢定以及因果關係檢定方法，針對美國第三波購併風潮前後時期，檢定購併家數、股價及工業生產指數三個變數間的可預測性。不同以往的是，本文除了將購併風潮分段進行研究外，並以晚近由Hoornik 及Hendry（1997）以Johansen（1988）為基礎所發展的一套共積檢定法來檢定變數間的長期均衡關係，再以Toda and Phillips（1994）的因果關係檢定流程與SSW的因果關係檢定分別檢定出變數間的可預測性。 經由本文實證結果發現： （1）購併、股價及工業生產指數三個變數，在ADF單根檢定結果三變數皆呈I（1）非恆定時間數列。並進一步以共積檢定檢測出不論參變數或購併和股價兩變數模型，1967年第四季以前變數間皆有一共積關係存在，1968年以後則無任何共積關係。 （2）從因果關係檢定結果發現，三變數體系中，股價與工業生產指數兩變數間可能存在極高的線性重合現象，且子期間礙於無法取夠長的遞延期數，使得工業生產指數對其他變數的影響力無法明確地反應出來，故三變數模型無法正確的檢定購併風潮前後變數間的因果關係。 （3）在購併與股價變數間的因果關係檢定研究中發現，1948~1967年間，股價對購併存在可預測性；然而1968~1979年間，股價與購併完全不存在任何可預測性。故可知購併風潮前後，股價對購併的可預測性發生了變化，從1967年前股價可合理地預測購併活動，到1967年後股價卻完全無法預測購併的情況。 （4）對影響購併的諸多因素做進一步的考量，發現威廉法案的出現對當時購併案件有相當程度的衝擊。 從實證結果可知，以共積與因果關係檢定方法一再地證明出，購併風潮前後股價對購併活動的可預性確實發生了結構性的變化。 第一章 緒論 第一節 研究背景與動機………………………………………….1 第二節 研究目的………………………………………………….3 第三節 購併之定義及相關基本概念…………………………….4 第四節 研究架構與流程………………………………………….8 第二章 文獻回顧 第一節 理論文獻回顧……………………………………………10 第二節 實證研究文獻回顧………………………………………13 第三節 文獻回顧總結……………………………………………23 第三章 實證研究方法 第一節 單根檢定………………………………………………..24 第二節 共積檢定…………………………………………………28 第三節 因果關係檢定……………………………………………34 第四節 實證檢定流程……………………………………………40 第四章 實證結果 第一節 實證資料來源……………………………………………43 第二節 Augmented Dickey-Fuller單根檢定………………….44 第三節 共積檢定……………………………………………....49 第四節 因果關係檢定……………………………………………55 第五節 因果關係檢定結果………………………………………78 第五章 法律因素的考量 第一節 時代背景….……………………………………….……79 第二節 檢視法條之影響力……………………………………..81 第三節 從案例角度分析………………………………………..84 第四節 威廉法案的威力………………………………………..87 第六章 結論…………………………………………………………88 附錄圖表（一）：各變數資料圖….………………………………90 附錄圖表（二）：共積殘差項圖………………………………….93 參考文獻…………………………………………………………….96

本文是探討管理浮動匯率時期（1978年第三季至1993年第三季），台灣地區經常帳盈餘發生的原因，同時考慮匯率因素、貨幣市場及商品與勞務市場吸納的情況。利用兩個向量自迴歸模型，分別納入：(1)匯率、利率、經常帳、消費節約及貨幣供給，(2)匯率、利率、經常帳、財政盈餘及貨幣供給，藉由因果關係檢定、預測誤差分解、及衝擊反應，分析經常帳失衡的原因。 　　實証結果指出：台灣地區經常帳盈餘，深受匯率、財政盈餘及消費節約的影響，這個結論與我國低估幣值與出口拓展的政策一致。且經常帳盈餘並不能夠顯著的影響貨幣供給，這個結論與央行沖銷的措施一致，其目的無非是要隔離國外部門影響國內貨幣。足見自由化的匯率政策，不但讓匯率反應出合理的水準值，同時可追求獨立的貨幣政策，配合著獎勵投資、消費及增加公共支出，增加國內吸納，藉以減少鉅幅的經常帳盈餘。

近年來有關醫療法律糾紛案件有逐漸增加之趨勢，本文嘗試藉由實證分析，剖析目前實務與學理上之不同見解，簡要提出個人淺見。於實證分析前，本論文先就文獻理論作簡略之論述，首要說明醫療行為與醫療糾紛之相關概念，以界定醫師或醫療機構對其醫療行為應負之責任。並從實體法上論述醫療過失民事責任之基礎及其內涵，如醫療契約責任、醫療侵權責任、消保法與醫療法之適用，以及醫療過失之因果關係等。次就程序法上探討民事醫療訴訟舉證責任分配之基本原則，同時就美國法與德國法有關醫療過失舉證責任分配的調整於我國實務上之運用，作概略分析及探討。再者，鑑於法官於具體個案中判斷醫療糾紛之相關要件，往往需將訴訟資料送請醫療專業機構加以鑑定，因此，本文亦加以說明我國醫療鑑定制度運作之現況，並據此指出現行醫療糾紛鑑定問題之所在。 最後，本文就最高法院民事案件，分別從醫療糾紛判決背景資料之「年度」、「醫療機構層級」、「科別」、「上訴人」與「上訴結果」，以及醫療糾紛審判實務，如「醫療過失」、「因果關係的認定」、「民事責任請求權基礎及舉證責任之分配情況」、「告知義務」、「醫療鑑定在醫療糾紛應用」，進行實證分析，並依實證數據成果，提出「醫療科別屬性與醫療糾紛案件量多寡密切攸關」、「法院對於醫師在個案是否盡注意義務，應以理性醫師之注意標準綜合評價」、「針對醫療訴訟特性，適度分配醫病雙方之舉證責任」、「宜建立醫療傷害補償基金制度」、「醫事人員確切履行告知說明義務」、「健全現行病歷表之相關問題」、「關於醫療糾紛鑑定實務」暨「透過消保法填補醫療（院）組織疏失之責任」等八項結論及建議，以供實務與學術研究者未來對於醫療糾紛訴訟案件研析時之參考。 / Recently, legal cases concerning medical dispute have a tendency to increase gradually. This article tries to explore different viewpoints between practice and academic theory by empirical analysis and then briefly indicates some of my humble views. Before doing the empirical analysis, this article will briefly introduce the related literatures and theories. Firstly, explains related concepts between medical behavior and medical dispute to define the liability that doctor and medical institution should bear because of their medical behaviors. Then, discuss the basis and connotation of the civil liability for medical malpractice from the substantive law viewpoint, such as the liability for medical contract, medical tort liability, the implementation of the Consumer Protection Law and the Medical Care Act and the causality from the medical malpractice etc. Secondly, this article will discuss the basic principles of allocation of burden of proof for civil medical dispute from the procedural law viewpoint and in the same time, briefly analyze and research that whether it is appropriate to adopt the allocation of burden of proof for medical malpractice from American and German law in our own practice. Furthermore, respecting the fact that for judges to make their decisions in particular medical dispute cases, they always have to send action materials to professional medical institutes for identification, thus, this article also wants to explain the current situation of implementation of our medical identification system, and points out the problems of current medical dispute identification system accordingly. Lastly, this article will proceed empirical analysis according to the Year, Levels of the medical institutions, Divisions, Appellant, Result of Appeal from the background of the verdicts of the civil medical dispute cases awarded by the Supreme Court and according to the medical malpractice, the determination of the causality, the condition of basis of civil title of claiming and allocation of burden of proof, obligation of informing, medical identification in the medical dispute from the medical dispute trial practice. Base upon these results, this article indicates eight conclusions and suggestions for reference for the active participants and academic researchers in future medical dispute lawsuits: the attribution of the medical care division and the number of the medical dispute cases are closely related, court should do omnibus assessment using the standard of due diligence as a rational doctor to determine whether a doctor fulfill his duty of care in a specific case, with the particularity of medical actions in mind, appropriately allocate the burden of proof between doctor and patient, it is better to establish the compensation foundation system for medical damage, medical personnel should literally perform their obligation of informing, to refine the problems of current medical record, things concerning medical dispute identification practice and using the Consumer Protection Act to fill the vacancy that caused by the negligence of the medical institutions.

Algebraic Quantum Field Theory (AQFT) is a mathematically rigorous framework that was developed to model the interaction of quantum mechanics and relativity. In AQFT, quantum mechanics is modelled by C*-algebras of observables and relativity is usually modelled in Minkowski space. In this thesis we will consider a generalization of AQFT which was inspired by the work of Abramsky and Coecke on abstract quantum mechanics [1, 2]. In their work, Abramsky and Coecke develop a categorical framework that captures many of the essential features of finite-dimensional quantum mechanics. In our setting we develop a categorified version of AQFT, which we call premonoidal C*-quantum field theory, and in the process we establish many analogues of classical results from AQFT. Along the way we also exhibit a number of new concepts, such as a von Neumann category, and prove several properties they possess. We also establish some results that could lead to proving a premonoidal version of the classical Doplicher-Roberts theorem, and conjecture a possible solution to constructing a fibre-functor. Lastly we look at two variations on AQFT in which a causal order on double cones in Minkowski space is considered.

Algebraic Quantum Field Theory (AQFT) is a mathematically rigorous framework that was developed to model the interaction of quantum mechanics and relativity. In AQFT, quantum mechanics is modelled by C*-algebras of observables and relativity is usually modelled in Minkowski space. In this thesis we will consider a generalization of AQFT which was inspired by the work of Abramsky and Coecke on abstract quantum mechanics [1, 2]. In their work, Abramsky and Coecke develop a categorical framework that captures many of the essential features of finite-dimensional quantum mechanics. In our setting we develop a categorified version of AQFT, which we call premonoidal C*-quantum field theory, and in the process we establish many analogues of classical results from AQFT. Along the way we also exhibit a number of new concepts, such as a von Neumann category, and prove several properties they possess. We also establish some results that could lead to proving a premonoidal version of the classical Doplicher-Roberts theorem, and conjecture a possible solution to constructing a fibre-functor. Lastly we look at two variations on AQFT in which a causal order on double cones in Minkowski space is considered.