ABSTRACT Title: Basel II – The New Basel Capital Accord and its influence on small Swedish banks and their retail banking and risk management. Seminar: May 24th, 2007 Course:FEK318 Bachelor thesis in Business Administration, 10 Swedish credits Authors: Mattias Kjellberg, David Uhlmann & Ivana Zubac Advisor: Joakim Winborg Keywords: Capital cover, capital requirements, Basel II, credit giving, credit risk, risk management, retail banking, small banks, pillar 2 Problem: What influence does Basel II and the new updated management of credit risks in pillar 1 and the active risk control in pillar 2 have on small Swedish banks retail banking? Purpose: Our essay seeks to explore what influence pillar 1 and the new updated management of credit risks in the new capital accord Basel II have on small Swedish banks and what influence pillar 2 have. We also want to explain if Basel II has influences on small Swedish banks credit analysis and possible effects in their risk management and pricing. Methodology: In our essay we use an inductive approach and our chosen research method is the qualitative one. We have chosen to look into four small Swedish banks, and the empirical data is obtained from telephone interviews with selected respondents from Länsförsäkringar Bank, SkandiaBanken, GE Money Bank and ICA Banken. Conclusions: • The work with credit scoring does not get influenced by Basel II if the Standardised Approach is chosen. • Banks that’ve early implemented high technological systems in the organization, that small banks normally do, have gotten an easier transition to Basel II. • Basel II will result in a risk adjusted pricing and a more fair credit market. • Internal Ratings-based Approaches is very demanding to develop, but at the same time it’s a more risk sensitive approach. • Pillar 2 results in a more sophisticated work for the small banks. • Basel II results in a further price press on residential loans in Sweden.

<p>Diss. (sammanfattning) Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2006 [6], xiii, [1] s.: sammanfattning, s. 1-259, [5] s.: 4 uppsatser. Spikblad saknas</p>

A causa delle conseguenze che il fenomeno comporta, sia sul piano finanziario sia sul fronte dell'economia reale, l'analisi e la previsione delle insolvenze societarie continua a rappresentare un argomento attuale nell'ambito della ricerca economica. I recenti sforzi condotti dal Comitato di Basilea verso la diffusione di criteri di valutazione del rischio di credito più precisi ed oggettivi, hanno ulteriormente accresciuto l'importanza della materia. L'obiettivo del presente studio è l'analisi del fenomeno del fallimento sul territorio italiano, al fine di valutare quali variabili sono più efficaci nell'individuazione di una situazione di dissesto dell'impresa. Per l'analisi si sono sviluppati dei modelli di previsione delle insolvenze in grado di individuare i segnali early warning di dissesto finanziario. L'analisi econometrica è basata su un campione ampio ed originale di fallimenti rilevati negli anni 2003 e 2004: a tal fine sono stati costituiti dei campioni comparabili di imprese fallite e non fallite ed è stato verificato, mediante l'applicazione di una metodologia logit, il potere previsivo di diversi indici di bilancio e di variabili di tipo non finanziario. I risultati ottenuti sono stati validati su un campione hold-out. L'analisi si evidenzia l'importanza delle caratteristiche del settore di attività nel determinare la forma del processo di fallimento: i modelli sector specific ottengono risultati migliori rispetto ai modelli generali stimati. Inoltre, alcuni fattori comuni ai diversi settori di attività si dimostrano particolarmente efficaci nella previsione dei dissesti aziendali: l'età, il livello di leverage e la composizione del debito d'impresa, così come la sua redditività. / Due to the consequences that the phenomenon entails both on the financial and real sides of the economy, the analysis and prediction of corporate failures continue to be a current topic in economic research. The recent efforts laid by the Basel Committee towards the diffusion of more precise and objective ways of assessing credit risk have further increased the importance of this matter. The purpose of the study is to analyse the bankruptcy phenomenon among Italian firms, in order to assess what firm-specific and industry variables are more important in determining corporate failure events. We develop a bankruptcy prediction model that aims at detecting early signals of financial distress. The econometric analysis is based on a wide and unique sample of recent failure events: comparable sets of bankrupt and non-bankrupt firms are identified and several prior balance-sheet and economic indicators are tested for their power in predicting failure probabilities in a logit modelling framework; model performances are cross-validated on hold-out samples. The analyses provide evidence of the importance of industry membership in determining and shaping corporate failure processes: sector-specific models produce a better assessment of financial distress than general ones. Also, some common factors emerge as important predictors of corporate collapse across different industries: age, gearing and the composition of a firm's debt, as well as its capability of generating profits.

El risc de crèdit s'associa a l'eventual incompliment de les obligacions de pagament per part dels creditors. En aquest cas, l'interès principal de les institucions financeres és mesurar i gestionar amb precisió aquest risc des del punt de vista quantitatiu. Com a resposta a l'interès esmentat, aquesta tesi doctoral, titulada "Structural Credit Risk Models: Estimation and Applications", se centra en l'ús pràctic dels anomenats "models estructurals de risc de crèdit". Aquests models es caracteritzen perquè estableixen una relació explícita entre el risc de crèdit i diverses variables fonamentals, la qual cosa permet un ventall ampli d'aplicacions. Concretament, la tesi analitza el contingut informatiu tant del mercat d'accions com del mercat de CDS sobre la base dels models estructurals esmentats.El primer capítol, estudia la velocitat distinta amb què el mercat d'accions i el mercat de CDS incorporen nova informació sobre el risc de crèdit. L'anàlisi se centra a respondre dues preguntes clau: quin d'aquests mercats genera una informació més precisa sobre el risc de crèdit i quins factors determinen el diferent contingut informatiu dels indicadors respectius de risc, és a dir, les primes de crèdit implícites en el mercat d'accions enfront del de CDS. La base de dades utilitzada inclou 94 empreses (40 d'europees, 32 de nordamericanes i 22 de japoneses) durant el període 2002-2004. Entre les conclusions principals destaquen la naturalesa dinàmica del procés de price discovery, una interconnexió més gran entre ambdós mercats i un major domini informatiu del mercat d'accions, associat a uns nivells més elevats del risc de crèdit, i, finalment, una probabilitat més gran de lideratge informatiu del mercat de CDS en els períodes d'estrès creditici.El segon capítol se centra en el problema de l'estimació de les variables latents en els models estructurals. Es proposa una nova metodologia, que consisteix en un algoritme iteratiu aplicat a la funció de versemblança per a la sèrie temporal del preu de les accions. El mètode genera estimadors de pseudomàxima versemblança per al valor, la volatilitat i el retorn que s'espera obtenir dels actius de l'empresa. Es demostra empíricament que aquest nou mètode produeix, en tots els casos, valors raonables del punt de fallida. A més, aquest mètode és contrastat d'acord amb les primes de CDS generades. S'observa que, en comparació amb altres alternatives per fixar el punt de fallida (màxima versemblança estàndard, barrera endògena, punt d'impagament de KMV i nominal del deute), l'estimació per pseudomàxima versemblança proporciona menys divergències.El tercer i darrer capítol de la tesi tracta la qüestió relativa a components distints del risc de crèdit a la prima dels CDS. Més concretament, estudia l'efecte del desequilibri entre l'oferta i la demanda, un aspecte important en un mercat on el nombre de compradors (de protecció) supera habitualment el de venedors. La base de dades cobreix, en aquest cas, 163 empreses en total (92 d'europees i 71 de nord-americanes) per al període 2002- 2008. Es demostra que el desequilibri entre l'oferta i la demanda té, efectivament, un paper important a l'hora d'explicar els moviments a curt termini en els CDS. La influència d'aquest desequilibri es detecta després de controlar l'efecte de variables fonamentals vinculades al risc de crèdit, i és més gran durant els períodes d'estrès creditici. Aquests resultats il·lustren que les primes dels CDS reflecteixen no tan sols el cost de la protecció, sinó també el cost anticipat per part dels venedors d'aquesta protecció per tancar la posició adquirida. / El riesgo de crédito se asocia al potencial incumplimiento por parte de los acreedores respecto de sus obligaciones de pago. En este sentido, el principal interés de las instituciones financieras es medir y gestionar con precisión dicho riesgo desde un punto de vista cuantitativo. Con objeto de responder a este interés, la presente tesis doctoral titulada "Structural Credit Risk Models: Estimation and Applications", se centra en el uso práctico de los denominados "Modelos Estructurales de Riesgo de Crédito". Estos modelos se caracterizan por establecer una conexión explícita entre el riesgo de crédito y diversas variables fundamentales, permitiendo de este modo un amplio abanico de aplicaciones. Para ser más explícitos, la presente tesis explora el contenido informativo tanto del mercado de acciones como del mercado de CDS sobre la base de los mencionados modelos estructurales.El primer capítulo de la tesis estudia la distinta velocidad con la que el mercado de acciones y el mercado de CDS incorporan nueva información sobre el riesgo de crédito. El análisis se centra en contestar dos preguntas clave: cuál de estos mercados genera información más precisa sobre el riesgo de crédito, y qué factores determinan en distinto contenido informativo de los respectivos indicadores de riesgo, esto es, primas de crédito implícitas en el mercado de acciones frente a CDS. La base de datos utilizada engloba a 94 compañías (40 europeas, 32 Norteamericanas y 22 japonesas) durante el periodo 2002-2004. Entre las principales conclusiones destacan la naturaleza dinámica del proceso de price discovery, la mayor interconexión entre ambos mercados y el mayor dominio informativo del mercado de acciones asociados a mayores niveles del riesgo de crédito, y finalmente la mayor probabilidad de liderazgo informativo del mercado de CDS en los periodos de estrés crediticio.El segundo capítulo se centra en el problema de estimación de variables latentes en modelos estructurales. Se propone una nueva metodología consistente en un algoritmo iterativo aplicado a la función de verosimilitud para la serie temporal del precio de las acciones. El método genera estimadores pseudo máximo verosímiles para el valor, volatilidad y retorno esperado de los activos de la compañía. Se demuestra empíricamente que este nuevo método produce en todos los casos valores razonables del punto de quiebra. El método es además contrastado en base a las primas de CDS generadas. Se observa que, en comparación con otras alternativas para fijar el punto de quiebra (máxima verosimilitud estándar, barrera endógena, punto de impago de KMV, y nominal de la deuda), la estimación por pseudo máxima verosimilitud da lugar a las menores divergencias.El tercer y último capítulo de la tesis aborda la cuestión relativa a componentes distintos al riesgo de crédito en la prima de los CDS. Se estudia más concretamente el efecto del desequilibrio entre oferta y demanda, un aspecto importante en un mercado donde el número de compradores (de protección) supera habitualmente al de vendedores. La base de datos cubre en este caso un total de 163 compañías (92 europeas y 71 norteamericanas) para el periodo 2002-2008. Se demuestra que el desequilibrio entre oferta y demanda tiene efectivamente un papel importante a la hora de explicar los movimientos de corto plazo en los CDS. La influencia de este desequilibrio se detecta una vez controlado el efecto de variables fundamentales ligadas al riesgo de crédito, y es mayor durante los periodos de estrés crediticio. Estos resultados ilustran que las primas de los CDS reflejan no sólo el coste de la protección, sino el coste anticipado por parte de los vendedores de tal protección de cerrar la posición adquirida. / Credit risk is associated with potential failure of borrowers to fulfill their obligations. In that sense, the main interest of financial institutions becomes to accurately measure and manage credit risk on a quantitative basis. With the intention to respond to this task this doctoral thesis, entitled "Structural Credit Risk Models: Estimation and Applications", focuses on practical usefulness of structural credit risk models that are characterized with explicit link with economic fundamentals and consequently allow for a broad range of application possibilities. To be more specific, in essence, the thesis project explores the information on credit risk embodied in the stock market and market for credit derivatives (CDS market) on the basis of structural credit risk models. The issue addressed in the first chapter refers to relative informational content of stock and CDS market in terms of credit risk. The overall analysis is focused on answering two crucial questions: which of these markets provides more timely information regarding credit risk, and what are the factors that influence informational content of credit risk indicators (i.e. stock market implied credit spreads and CDS spreads). Data set encompasses international set of 94 companies (40 European, 32 US and 22 Japanese) during the period 2002-2004. The main conclusions uncover time-varying behaviour of credit risk discovery, stronger cross market relationship and stock market leadership at higher levels of credit risk, as well as positive relationship between the frequency of severe credit deterioration shocks and the probability of the CDS market leadership.Second chapter concentrates on the problem of estimation of latent parameters of structural models. It proposes a new, maximum likelihood based iterative algorithm which, on the basis of the log-likelihood function for the time series of equity prices, provides pseudo maximum likelihood estimates of the default barrier and of the value, volatility, and expected return on the firm's assets. The procedure allows for credit risk estimation based only on the readily available information from stock market and is empirically tested in terms of CDS spread estimation. It is demonstrated empirically that, contrary to the standard ML approach, the proposed method ensures that the default barrier always falls within reasonable bounds. Moreover, theoretical credit spreads based on pseudo ML estimates offer the lowest credit default swap pricing errors when compared to the other options that are usually considered when determining the default barrier: standard ML estimate, endogenous value, KMV's default point, and principal value of debt.Final, third chapter of the thesis, provides further evidence of the performance of the proposed pseudo maximum likelihood procedure and addresses the issue of the presence of non-default component in CDS spreads. Specifically, the effect of demand-supply imbalance, an important aspect of liquidity in the market where the number of buyers frequently outstrips the number of sellers, is analyzed. The data set is largely extended covering 163 non-financial companies (92 European and 71 North American) and period 2002-2008. In a nutshell, after controlling for the fundamentals reflected through theoretical, stock market implied credit spreads, demand-supply imbalance factors turn out to be important in explaining short-run CDS movements, especially during structural breaks. Results illustrate that CDS spreads reflect not only the price of credit protection, but also a premium for the anticipated cost of unwinding the position of protection sellers.

The paper is concerned with counterparty credit risk management for credit default swaps in the presence of default contagion. In particular, we study the impact of default contagion on credit value adjustments such as the BCCVA (Bilateral Collateralized Credit Value Adjustment) of Brigo et al. 2012 and on the performance of various collateralization strategies. We use the incomplete-information model of Frey and Schmidt (2012) as vehicle for our analysis. We find that taking contagion effects into account is important for the effectiveness of the strategy and we derive refined collateralization strategies to account for contagion effects. (authors' abstract) / Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics

關於Merton (1969) 最適投資組合策略問題，所考慮之投資情境為：一個將其財富資金安排配置於風險性資產(各類證券)與無風險短期現金部位之投資人，在給定此投資人心目中財富效用函數之前提下，希望事先決定出投資組合之最適投資權重(策略)，藉此達成在投資期滿時極大化財富效用之期望值。基於Merton (1974) 公司價值觀點，具有違約風險之證券(公司債與股票)乃是公司價值之衍生性商品，無法以傳統資產配置對股票與債券部位採取現貨方式處理最適投資策略，在此必需同時結合財務工程處理衍生性金融商品計價與避險之技術來解決。本研究利用Kron & Kraft (2003) 彈性求解法來針對市場是否有投資限制、債券提前違約、到期違約及利率隨機與否等假設，基於不同投資組合情境分析來最適投資部位策略。本研貢獻和究創新突破之處在於特別探討公司違約時，債券投資人不再享有全部公司殘值之求償權，此時股東亦享有部份比例之求償權，違約後之公司殘值將由債券投資人與股東兩者比例共分之特殊情境下，對數型態財富效用之投資人對於提前違約風險之接受度高於到期違約風險，若一般情境(股東無任何求償權)則為相反。此外亦特別提供最適成長投資組合之動態避險策略封閉解，藉以提供投資人面臨企業違約風險時應制定之投資決策與動態調整，使本研究臻至週延與實用。 / Under the Merton (1969) optimal portfolio problem, we only consider the specific investor, whose wealth utility follows the type of logarithm function; wants to maximize the expected value of the terminal wealth utility through determine the optimal investment strategy in advance. He divides his wealth into the riskless asset and risky assets such as the money market account and the various-risky securities issued by the corporate. Based on the Merton firm value framework (1974), the defaultable securities, such as the corporate bonds and stocks, are the derivatives instruments of the firm value. It will be inappropriate if we deal with this optimal portfolio problem under the original methods. Therefore, we need to handle this optimal asset allocation problem through the pricing, valuation and hedging techniques from the financial engineering simultaneously. This study apply the elasticity approach to portfolio optimization (EAPO, Kraft ,2003) to solve the optimal portfolio strategy under various scenarios, such as the market contains the investment constrain or not, intermediate default risks, mature default risk, interest rate risky under the stochastic process. The innovation and contribution of this paper are especially breaking the common setting and analysis the optimal-growth-portfolio strategy under the special scenario. In the common setting, as soon as the default event occurs, the residual firm value will be claimed by the corporate bondholders with fully proportion and the stockholder cannot share any residual value. Oppositely, the stockholder will be able to share the residual firm value proportionally with the corporate bondholder together under the so-called special scenario. We found that the investor would have higher acceptance of the premature default risk than the mature default risk in the special scenario. This phenomenon will be reversed under the common scenario. Furthermore, in order to make this study more completely and useful, we do not only illustrate the optimal investment strategy but also provide the closed-formed solution of the dynamic hedge strategy of the risky position, composed by the defaultable securities. This could help the optimal-growth-portfolio-oriented investor to make investment decision while they face the firm value downward decreasing.

Η έρευνά μας συμβάλει στην αντιμετώπιση του πιστοληπτικού κινδύνου της εισηγμένης σε ενιαία μορφή, συνυπολογιζομένης της μη-γραμμικής υποτιθέμενης σχέσης μεταξύ κινδύνου και χρηματιστηριακής αξίας της μετοχής, μιας και η ενδεχόμενη θέση της σε Επιτήρηση/Αναστολή αυξάνει δραματικά τις πιστοληπτικές επιπτώσεις στους πιστωτές, ιδιαίτερα σε όσους κατέχουν μετοχικό ενέχυρο, δημιουργώντας μια μη-γραμμική σχέση μεταξύ αξίας δανείων και αξίας μετοχής. Συνέπεια λοιπόν των επιταγών της Βασιλείας ΙΙ είναι και η κατηγοριοποίηση που διενεργούμε εμείς στο δείγμα των επιχειρήσεων που έχουν εισηγμένη μετοχή στο χρηματιστήριο, μιας και αναμένουμε να διαφοροποιείται ο κίνδυνος πτώχευσης και κίνδυνος από την έκθεση σε κίνδυνο και ζημιά από πτώχευση στην περίπτωση θέσης των μετοχών σε αναστολή ή Επιτήρηση. Πιστεύουμε ότι με αυτόν τον τρόπο συνεισφέρουμε στην εκτίμηση του κινδύνου που πηγάζει από την συστηματική αυτή εξάρτηση της εταιρίας και του πιστοληπτικού της κινδύνου από την έκθεση των μετοχών της στο χρηματιστήριο. / Our research contributes in the credit risk estimation for a listed company in an integrated framework, incorportating the assumed non-linear relationship between credit risk and stock-market performance deriving from a potential Stock Exchange trading Suspension/Supervision which modifies dramatically counterparty creditworthness and at the same time stock collateral held in a non-linear fashion. As a result of Basle II Accord's integrated credit risk estimation approach, we categorize the sample of listed enterprises according to their modified credit risk based on the potential Stock Exchange Supervision/Suspension. Our overall methodology of credit risk estimation stemming from a systematic dependence of credit and stock collateral risk contributes to the overall risk assesment of listed companies.

Ratingsysteme sind ein zentraler Bestandteil der Kreditrisikomodellierung. Neben der Bonitätsbeurteilung auf der Ebene der Kreditnehmer und der Risikoquantifizierung auf der Ebene der Ratingklassen spielt dabei die Bildung der Ratingklassen eine wesentliche Rolle. Die Literatur zur Ratingklassenbildung setzt auf modellfreie, in gewisser Weise willkürliche Optimierungsverfahren. Ein Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist es, stattdessen ein parametrisches statistisches Modell zur Bildung der Ratingklassen einzuführen. Ein geeignetes Modell ist im Bereich der Bruchpunktschätzung zu finden. Dieses Modell und die in der mathematischen Literatur vorgeschlagenen Parameter- und Intervallschätzer werden in der vorliegenden Arbeit dargestellt und gründlich diskutiert. Dabei wird Wert auf eine anwendungsnahe und anschauliche Formulierung der mathematisch-statistischen Sachverhalte gelegt. Anschließend wird die Methodik der Bruchpunktschätzung auf einen konkreten Datensatz angewendet und mit verschiedenen anderen Kriterien zur Ratingklassenbildung verglichen. Hier erweist sich die Bruchpunktschätzung als vorteilhaft. Aufbauend auf der empirischen Untersuchung wird abschließend weiterer Forschungsbedarf abgeleitet. Dazu werden insbesondere Konzepte für den Mehrklassenfall und für abhängige Daten entworfen. / Rating systems are a key component of credit risk modeling. In addition to scoring at borrowers’ level and risk quantification at the level of rating classes, the formation of the rating classes plays a fundamental role. The literature on rating classification uses in a way arbitrary optimization methods. Therefore, one aim of this contribution is to introduce a parametric statistical model to form the rating classes. A suitable model can be found in the area of split-point estimation. This model and the proposed parameter and interval estimators are presented and thoroughly discussed. Here, emphasis is placed on an application-oriented and intuitive formulation of the mathematical and statistical issues. Subsequently, the methodology of split-point estimation is applied to a specific data set and compared with several other criteria for rating classification. Here, split-point estimation proves to be advantageous. Finally, further research questions are derived on the basis of the empirical study. In particular, concepts for the case of more than two classes and for dependent data are sketched.

Dauguma šiuolaikinių finansų valdymo ir investicijų mokslinių darbų akcentuoja finansinės rizikos valdymo svarbą finansinių institucijų veiklai. Augančioje finansų rinkoje aktyviais dalyviais tampa įmonės, kurių ilgalaikei sėkmei įtakos turi finansinių lėšų valdymas. Magistro darbe išanalizuoti ir susisteminti įvairių Lietuvos ir užsienio autorių teoriniai ir praktiniai iždo rizikų valdymo aspektai, sukeliantys riziką veiksniai, rizikos rūšys, iždo rizikų įvertinimo ir valdymo metodai. Parodyta, kad pagrindinis rizikos valdymo tikslas nebūtinai yra jos išvengti, o suprasti kritinius rizikos veiksnius ir profesionaliai juos valdyti. Atlikus analizę AB „Mažeikių nafta“ nustatytos šios iždo rizikos: rinkos (valiutų kurso, palūkanų normos, biržinių prekių kainos kitimo), likvidumo, kredito, operacinė. Panaudojus rizikos vertės VaR@95% metodo skaičiavimus, įvertintas iždo rizikų poveikis bendrovės finansinių išteklių formavimui. Patvirtinta autorės suformuluota mokslinio tyrimo hipotezė, kad iždo rizikų strateginis valdymas įmonėje stabilizuoja įmonės pinigų srautus, sumažina įmonės nuostolius dėl finansų rinkos neigiamų pokyčių, pagerina pelningumo prognozavimą. / Most of today’s finance management and investment scientific papers emphasize the importance of finance risk management for the financial institution activities. The companies the long-term success of which comes from the funds management become the active participants in the growing financial market. The Master’s Thesis analyses and systemizes the theoretical and practical aspects of treasury risk management, factors causing risk, types of risks, methods of treasury risk evaluation and management as described by various Lithuanian and foreign authors. It identifies that the main goal of risk management is not necessarily to prevent the risk but to understand the critical risk factors and manage them in professional way. After the analysis has been made the following treasury risks were identified for AB Mažeikių Nafta: market (currency rate exchange, interest rate, commodity price fluctuation), liquidity, credit, operations. Using risk value VaR@95% method calculations the treasury risk impact to the formation of the company financial resources was evaluated. The scientific research hypothesis of the author stating that treasury risk strategy management in the Company stabilizes the Company’s cash flows, reduces loses resulted from negative changes in the finance market, improves the profitability forecasting was proved to be correct.

The supervising institutions do not give to commercial banks indications what models have to be used for stress testing. This research was done in order to find out which mathematical/statistical models are and can be used in credit risk stress testing. Credit risk is one of the biggest financial risks that every bank faces. Stress testing is a tool of credit risk assessment that helps to estimate the consequences of the events that have really small probability to happen but if they occur, banks can have significant losses. This study determined that the most plausible event is adverse macroeconomic conditions. For this reason, models that include macroeconomic impact were presented. Vector autoregression and vector error correction model were tested using the empirical data received from Swedish central bank, Swedish statistics and Eurostat. For financial stability it is worth using vector autoregression or vector error correction model as they describe the macroeconomic environment in the most suitable way and they are appropriate for shock analysis by showing how the impact of any factor can change the whole system. Structure: introduction, main part (credit risk, methods and empirical analysis), publication, conclusions, references. Thesis consists of: 50 p. text without appendices, 13 pictures, 11 tables, 26 bibliographical entries. Appendices included. / Kredito įstaigų priežiūros institucijos nepateikia komerciniams bankams kokius metodus jie turėtų naudoti testavime nepalankiomis sąlygomis. Tiriamasis darbas buvo atliktas tuo tikslu, kad būtų išsiaiškinta kokie matematiniai ir statistiniai metodai yra ir gali būti naudojami kredito rizikos vertinime testuojant nepalankiomis sąlygomis. Kredito rizika yra viena iš didžiausių finansinių rizikų su kuria bankai susiduria. Testavimas nepalankiomis sąlygomis yra kredito rizikos vertinimo įrankis, padedantis nustatyti įvykių, kurių realizavimosi tikimybės yra mažos, tačiau jiems įvykus, bankai patirtų reikšmingus nuostolius, pasekmes. Šis tyrimas nustatė, jog labiausiai tikėtinas įvykis gali būti ypatingai nepalankios ekonominės sąlygos. Dėl šios priežasties darbe yra pristatyti metodai, kurie įvertina makroekonominių veiksnių įtaką. Vektorinė autoregresija ir vektorinis paklaidų korekcijos modelis buvo patikrinti naudojant Švedijos centrinio banko, Švedijos statistikos departamento ir Eurostat empirinius duomenis. Finansinio stabilumo įvertinimui vertėtų naudoti vektorinį autoregresijos ar vektorinį paklaidų korekcijos modelius, nes šie modeliai geriausiai aprašo ekonominę aplinką bei yra labai tinkami šokų analizei, kadangi įvertina bet kurio veiksnio įtaką visai sistemai. Struktūra: įvadas, pagrindinė dalis (kredito rizika, metodai ir empirinė analizė), publikacija, išvados, literatūros sąrašas. Tiriamasis darbas sudarytas iš: 50 psl. teksto be priedų, 13 paveikslų, 11... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]