自從1995年菲律賓與中共在美濟礁發生衝突以來，雙方在南海主權議題上時而緊張、時而和緩。歷經羅慕斯時期(1992年~1998年)的對峙衝撞、埃斯特拉達 (1998年~2001年)的冷靜淡化、亞羅育 (2001年~2010年)的低調迴避，步入艾奎諾三世時期(2010年~)之後訴諸國際法庭的法律戰，菲、中關係轉為對立緊繃。 冷戰後的4位菲律賓總統大致是採行「避險」策略，以便在中、美的拉扯下夾縫求生。菲國的策略揉合了「扈從」與「制衡」的概念，此與東協各國盛行的「大國平衡」策略相近，既要拉攏美國與日本，也要扯進中國大陸。菲律賓國家政策堅守「區域安全仰仗美國」與「經濟發展緊抓中共」兩大主軸，難以避免地會陷入「地緣政治」與「地緣經濟」的角力之中。至於中共在處理與鄰國的南海爭端上，則是秉持「鬥而不破」的原則，對付菲律賓的各種挑釁行為，採取的是「裁剪式」策略，為菲律賓量身打造相應的各種手段與方法。 宥於菲國薄弱的軍事實力，以及菲、美同盟的夥伴關係，可以預期的，在艾奎諾三世任期結束之前，菲律賓在南海議題上仍會不斷發聲，並且以法律戰持續與中共抗衡，以便獲取更多籌碼來維護國家利益。至於艾氏的繼任者，預測將會大幅修補對中關係，擺回「親中」的外交路線。 / Since the Mischief Reef dispute broke out between the Philippines and China in 1995, the relations between the two countries have been unstable when it comes to sovereignty issues over South China Sea. From the confrontation period of Fidel Valdes Ramos (1992~1998), the relaxation strategy of Joseoh Ejercito Estrada (1998~2001), the avoidance attitude of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (2001~2010), to the Law War Stage of Benigno S. Aquino III (2010~ ), now the China-Philippines relation has turned into an antagonistic one. The 4 Philippines presidents after the end of the cold war have roughly adopted hedging strategies in order to survive from the tug-of-war between China and America. The Philippines employs a strategy that combines bandwagoning and balancing, similar to ASEAN’s equilibrium strategy among big countries, drawing America and Japan over to its side and forcing mainland China to get involved. The Philippine national policy sticks to two principles: “Relying on America for Regional Security” and “Grasping China for Economic Development”. The policy unavoidably makes the country fall into the wrestling of “Geo-Politics” and “Geo-Economics.” As for China, it maintains the principle of fighting over core interests but will not break the relationship. Facing the various provocative actions of the Philippines, China adopts a tailored strategy with corresponding means and methods to handle the Philippines. Due to the weak military capabilities and the alliance relations with America, it is predictable that before Benigno S. Aquino III finish his term as the Philippines president, the country will continue to bark on South China Sea issues and try to contend with China by law so as to obtain more advantages in protecting its national interests. As for Aquino’s successor, predictably he/she will substantially repair the relations with China and regain pro-china policies.

南海海域以往僅不過是來往商船的航路與漁船作業的漁場，在1960 年代末期，該區域被認定蘊藏豐富的資源後，南海周邊國家開始爭相佔領附近島礁。再加上南海是某些國家戰略物資之必經航路，南海頓時轉變為重要的戰略要域，因多方國家經濟利益交錯複雜的牽扯下，地區亦時有摩擦事件發生，南海從此成為亞太地區的熱點。 外交是內政的延續，外交政策應在維護或爭取國家利益的先決條件下制定，並主導國家整體對外的作為，謀求國家在國際地位中的生存與發展。南海問題涉及國家事務，亦屬外交政策項下之一環，所以中國大陸南海政策，亦受其外交政策指導。中國大陸因為經濟力的發展，帶動了軍事力的茁壯，而使其遠在南海海域的諸島主權得以有軍事力量予以維護。也因其在南海地區的軍力強化，造成南海聲索國 普遍的不安。相對之下，各聲索國亦增購軍備，加強南海防務。再加上美國與東協組織的介入，使南海地區各方較勁的意味濃厚。 當南海各聲索國增購軍備，加強維護其南海所佔島礁主權時，同是南海聲索國的中華民國，雖對於軍事武力的建置從未懈怠，只不過所增強的軍事武力均建置於台澎金馬區域，而對於東沙群島的東沙島及南沙群島的太平島而言，中華民國是不是應當有完善的南海軍事戰略，足以維護其安全。 / The area of the South China Sea was route of the merchant ships coming and going and fishing ground for the fishing boats in the past. In the late 1960s, after this area was found with abundant resources, the surrounding countries of the South China Sea began to occupy the nearby islands and reefs. In addition, the South China Sea is the passage of some countries’ strategic materials; hence, the South China Sea tends to be an important strategic point. Regional frictions occur under the conflict of interests involving a number of surrounding countries. This is why the South China Sea becomes the flash point of Asian-Pacific area. Diplomacy is the continuity of the internal affairs. The foreign policy should be made under the preconditions of maintaining or striving for the interests of the State as well as the guideline for the State，s foreign affairs , seeking the State，s survival and development in the international arena. The issue of the South China Sea involves the national affairs, also affected under the foreign policy, so the policy of the South China Sea should be guided by their individual foreign policies. Mainland China，s military power is supported by its economic growth and cause an uneasy atmosphere for claimant in the area. As each claimant purchases arms and equipments along with the involvement of the U.S. and Association of South-east Asian Nations, the South China Sea becomes the hub of tension. When every claimant of the South China Sea purchases the arms, strengthening to safeguard the islands and reefs sovereign right in the South China Sea, Republic of China , one of the claimants of the South China Sea, although the building of the military power has never been stopped, but the focus has been placed only in Taiwan、Penghu、Kinmen and Matsu area. For Dongsha islands and Taiping island, whether the government of Republic of China should build a complete strategy of the South China Sea to maintain its security remains debatable.

冷戰結束之後，亞太地區的情勢因蘇聯內部共黨勢力的瓦解，而美國也因內部經濟問題無法負擔龐大的軍事費用而逐漸退出亞太，造成亞太地區的權力真空。這段期間內，中共已從1979年後的改革開放中取得綜合國力的提升，使中共得以在亞太地區竄起，逐漸發展成為區域強權，到現在被視為是美國潛在對手的世界強權。 中共之所以能取得今天的地位，主要靠的就是經濟的持續成長，然成長的動力乃來自於對能源之需求。目前中共為僅次於美國的全球第二大石油消費國，不過，這背後卻是高度依賴進口石油，其中80 %是經印度洋、麻六甲海峽及南海運抵大陸。從安全及經濟戰略的角度切入，中共沒有不掌握南海控制權的理由。這也道出後冷戰時期國家戰略的轉變，逐漸從陸地轉為重視海上的主權與安全，由此，中共在南海戰略布局，建立海軍基地，正是為了維護在南海的利益。 　　然而這樣的利益卻因為南海議題至終仍僵持不下，影響中共在南海戰略的目標與規畫，例如1982年的海洋公約法各自宣布經濟海域之範圍，使得各國主權的行使上具有相互重疊的部分，加上南海區域所蘊含著可觀的石油資源和航線價值，導致各個當事國皆不願放棄其主權的擁有。更不用說是境外勢力的介入，都使得南海問題變得更加複雜，進而改變中共在南海的戰略。 　　由此，本文將從這個錯綜複雜的問題中，先探討南海爭議的源頭與脈絡，有助於了解中共制定南海政策的背景。其次再從政治、經濟以及軍事方面來分析中共在南海的意圖和戰略，包括了在海南設立海軍基地、加速發展潛艦和航母等，研究中共海軍建軍的進程與南海戰略之關係。最後，再評估中共的南海戰略對區域安全所造成的衝擊，以及如何影響周邊國家和區外國家的行為。 / After the Cold War, there is no strong power in the Asia Pacific region as a result of the collapse of the communist Soviet Union while the United States (U.S.) had the economic problem which also made it to withdraw forces from that region. During this timeframe, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has improved its overall national power by reforms and transformations since 1979 which gave it opportunity to raise and become regional superpower and is being recognized as a potential global superpower and adversary to the U.S. 　　PRC gained today’s position mainly through its continued economic growth and its growing momentum is constructed upon the energy requirement. Currently, PRC is the second largest oil consumer besides the U.S. and is heavily dependent upon the imports in which 80 percent come from the Indian Ocean, Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. From the security and economics point of view, there is no reason PRC should give up the control of the South China Sea which explains its national strategy has shifted from continent thinking to focusing on the maritime sovereignty and security. Thus, PRC’s strategy in South China Sea and the construction of naval bases are to protect its interest in that area. 　　However, the territorial disputes of the South China Sea have influenced PRC’s strategic goal and planning. For instance, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in 1982 has the clause to announce economic zone which would overlap with neighboring countries. Furthermore, the potential undiscovered oil underneath the South China Sea and the critical sea lanes made relevant nations unwilling to give up their claims, not to say the involvement of foreign powers. All these have made the South China Sea a complicated issue which also affected PRC to change its South China Sea strategy. 　　Thereby, this paper will examine the origin of this complicated South China Sea issue which will help readers to understand the background of the forming of PRC’s South China Sea policy. Next, we will analyze PRC’s intent and strategy from political, economical and military aspects, including its set up of naval bases in that area and the speedup of the development of aircraft carrier and submarine, and also the relationship between PLA Navy’s buildup and the South China Sea. Finally, we will analyze the security impact to that area by PRC’s South China Sea strategy and how it affects peripheral nations’ behavior and nations outside that area.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第20086号 / 工博第4253号 / 新制||工||1658(附属図書館) / 33202 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 三ｹ田 均, 教授 朝倉 俊弘, 教授 林 為人, 浅沼 宏 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

從1982年之《國際海洋法公約》規定相關國家在爭議之海域劃界達成協議之前，有權利就爭議海域的管理和開發做出臨時性的安排。而共同開發正是作為一種解決海域劃界爭端而被廣泛採用的臨時性辦法，共同開發方案一經提出便得到了國際實踐的認同。 通過國際實踐案例的分析，並從中汲取國際共同開發成功案例中的經驗和啟示，總結出國際共同開發的管理模式及其特點並促進我國參與南海油氣共同開發，強化與周邊國家區域利益協調和合作局勢，積極推動共同開發合作建立，避免南海周邊國家避開我國簽訂雙邊或多邊協議去侵占我國南海油氣資源及海域主權，並就我國南海管轄權範圍內積極進行合作以維護我國在南海的海洋權利。 / 1982’s International Law of the sea has prescribed that the related countries are liable to make every effort to make an interim arrangement upon the management and utilization of maritime space after coming an agreement on maritime delimitation. Joint development that is the interim arrangement with broad adoption on solving the dispute of maritime delimitation, which now has been acknowledged in international practices. Through analyzing the international cases, and the ultimate goal of this paper is that R.O.C will learn the experience and inspiration from the successful international joint development model, effectively accelerate the joint development of oil and gas, strengthen the coordination and cooperation of regional benefit with surrounding countries, and actively promote the joint development and cooperation to establish, to avoid the neighboring countries of the South China Sea to avoid bilateral or multilateral agreements signed to occupy Republic of China's oil and gas resources and sea sovereignty, and within the jurisdiction of China's South China Sea within the active cooperation to safeguard Republic of China's maritime rights in the South China Sea.

正如古典現實主義者所提倡的，最初的政治學中的關係探究存在於人類的本質中。權力的交替定義了君主世界中的相對關係，也因而形塑了我們對利益的追求。這樣的權力轉變正在中國發生，同時這也反應在中國對南海戰略的政策上。古典現實主義提供了海洋的國際政治學一個嶄新觀點。透過地理政治學上的解釋性分析，此研究檢視中國的政策與對世界的影響。在南海，中國持續崛起的力量、戰略與政策導致由中國主導的區域秩序。本研究所採用的研究方法發現到，中國崛起是一股相對的力量，且美國所企圖採取的權力平衡，可能無法成功圍堵中國的崛起。 / The primordial causal relationship within politics lies in the condition of our human nature, as classical realists argue. The constant exchange in power defines the relative relationships within the anarchical world, and shapes our pursuit of interests thereof. Such a change in power is occurring within China, and this is being reflected on its shifting policy and conduct in the South China Sea. Classical realism ought to shed light on and put forth a new perspective on the situation in the maritime sphere of international politics. The thesis scrutinizes, through interpretive analysis within a geopolitical approach, China’s policy and how it sees the world. The outcome of China’s increasing power, strategy and subsequent policy results in a China-led regional order starting in the waters of the South China Sea. The importance of this method in seeing China’s rise is the relativity of power and how the balance of power, including US, may prove to be inconclusive in trying to contain China’s unprecedented rise.

本文最主要的目的有二。其一為評估「民主和平論」是否依然有效地解釋「戰爭與和平」議題。若然，那麼同為自由主義的「貿易和平」是否相較之下之解釋力較佳。第二則是個案研究，聚焦於「南海爭端」用以進一步驗證本文的論述。本文認為以制度層面而言，貿易量事實上相較於政治體制是較能降低衝突帶來和平。 / This thesis has two purposes: the first one is to re-examine “Democratic Peace” and to testify “Trade Peace” with an eye to finding a more explainable solution on the issue of Conflict and Peace; and the second purpose is by providing a case study centering on the region of the South China Sea, the premise of this thesis will further be evaluated. The premise in here is that from an institutional perspective, trade is the more efficient and less costly method to reduce the possibility of initiating armed conflicts than polities.

南海爭端近幾年區域緊張情勢不斷升高。中國已將南海列為「核心利益」，而美國則將南海視為「國家利益」。基此，這顯現中美兩國在南海議題的積極作為，雙方在其處理南海議題的戰略架構下，兩國主要舉措均在外交與軍事層面上針鋒相對。外交上中國以「睦鄰外交」，穩定周邊局勢，美國則運用「前沿部署外交」拉攏東亞各國；兩國對於東協國家的態度將更為重視，亦是雙方外交戰略的重點所在，渠等均希望藉由東協國家的支持在南海議題上更有話語權。而軍事上中國以「反介入/區域拒止」的軍事作為防止域外國家介入其主權議題，而美國研擬「空海一體戰」除運用其強大的軍事科技實力外，欲結合各盟邦的力量，與其一同牽制中國的軍事行動。 綜上，在中美兩國相互的競逐作為下，佐以米爾斯海默之攻勢現實主義觀點，檢視中美兩國在南海之未來互動關係。潛在霸權國中國擁有眾多的人口與快速成長的經濟，並在南海整軍經武，試圖強化與東協甚或是東亞諸國的經貿互賴程度，且於處理亞洲事務中將美國排除在外，以取代美國擔任亞洲關鍵角色，尤其在南海的不妥協性，顯現出中國在此區域的主導性。另外，既存霸權國美國面對中國綜合國力崛起，則扮演「離岸平衡者」，融合「推諉卸責」、「均勢」之概念，拉攏東協及日本、印度等相關國家，共同制衡南海區域的權力失衡狀態，鞏固霸權地位。中美雙方皆將南海問題的層級提高，並且均欲爭取南海區域之領導地位，因此兩國在此區域未來將趨於競爭關係。 / The tension caused by the South China Sea dispute has been rising in recent years. China has listed the South China Sea as her “core interest”, while the U.S. considers the South China Sea as “national interest”. This, shows that both China and the U.S. have been acting aggressively on the South China Sea issue. Both sides, under their own strategic frames in dealing with the issues, square off over each other’s diplomatic and military acts. Diplomatically, China practices “Good Neighboring Diplomacy” to stabilize the relations with her surrounding neighbors, while the U.S. applies “Forward-Deployed Diplomacy” to bring together each country in East Asia to fight against China. The two countries value the attitude of the ASEAN members more than ever, and this is also the main focus of their diplomatic strategies; both desire to have more say on the South China Sea issue by gaining support from members of the ASEAN. In terms of military operation, China practices “Anti-Access/Area-Denial” to prevent other countries from intervening her sovereignty issues, while the U.S. crafts “Air-Sea Battle”, in which the U.S. applies her devastating military and technology power, and combines the force of each ally to rein China’s military operation. All in all, with the China-U.S. competition as the backdrop, and by referring to John Mearsheimer’s offensive realism, this study examines the future Sino-American relations in the South China Sea. China, as a potential hegemon, possesses a large population and a fast-growing economy; the state also conducts military operations in the South China Sea, with a view to consolidating the mutual economic and trade dependence of China and the ASEAN, even countries in East Asia. Moreover, China excludes the U.S. from dealing with tasks in Asia for the purpose of replacing the U.S. as the Asia’s key player. China’s intransigency in the South China Sea particularly reveals her dominance in the region. Besides, in facing China’s rise in all aspects, the U.S., as the current hegemon, plays the role of “The Off-shore Balancer”. By mixing "Buck-Passing" with "Balancing", the U.S. brings together countries involved in the issue such as the members of ASEAN, Japan, and India to collectively rein the power imbalance in the South China Sea, so as to consolidate her dominance. Both China and the U.S. have raised the level of the South China Sea issue, and have scrambled to gain the dominance in the South China Sea. Therefore, in the future, the two countries will become more of two competitors in this region.

自2009年起，美國透過一系列政策宣示、外交行動施行重返亞洲政策，在涉及七個聲索方的南海主權爭端之中，美國的介入將會為難解的南海爭端增添更加複雜的因子。南海爭端的動態之所以受到關注，除了中共持續增長的綜合國力、美國將焦點投注至亞洲區域、防止潛在競爭對手產生的策略，南海爭端實際上為中、美角力的縮影。未來南海問題的發展，將可能影響區域、乃至國際的和平，必須持續關注。 中國所面對的國際環境正在轉變，此將影響其對於國家利益的認知與選擇，本文將以新現實與新自由主義的論爭，檢視近年美國重返亞洲後造成南海爭端再起的案例，並探討中共參與國際建制的利益認知、瞭解中共在冷戰後的多極化國際社會中的相對定位。 本文將分文三大部分：第一部分為國際關係理論與概念分析，將從國際關係理論與國際建制的探討，到中共參與國際安全建制的理論與概況，再進一步聚焦於中共的南海政策與主張；第二部分介紹南海爭端中其他聲索方之主張，以及各聲索方與中共在南海互動歷程，並探討為處理南海爭端而建立的安全建制演變與成效；第三部分將探討國際情勢的變化對國家外交政策的影響，以南海爭端為例，說明美國因素對中共外交利益視角造成的影響。 本文所欲探討的問題為：第一、中共為何願意採取相較溫和的「擱置爭議、共同開發」政策？又，在中共積極塑造負責任大國及營造友好周邊環境的目標下，為何「南海行為準則」的談判進度遲滯？第二、從國際關係理論研究南海問題，探討兩新學派之中何者較具解釋力？第三、國際建制是否有助於國際合作？最後，針對南海爭端對我國的啟示，也將在本文末章進行討論。

無 / Discussions of the South China Sea maritime territorial disputes are rife with assertions that certain state actors escalate regional tensions and that it is only a matter of time before provocations trigger armed conflict. However, these claims are based primarily on incomplete evidence, inaccurate comparisons with historical conflicts, and country or individual biases. This dissertation questions these common assertions and uses empirical evidence to assess their validity. Using time-series event data from the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT), it analyzes (1) the relationship between state involvement and South China Sea tensions and (2) which forecast models can most accurately predict South China Sea tensions based on data from earlier time periods. For RQ1, the analyses reveal that the involvement of certain countries corresponds with significantly higher tensions in the South China Sea, that state involvement and tensions are correlated at various positive and negative lags of interest, and that these correlations go in both directions. These findings have important implications for policymakers and researchers in that they offer empirical evidence that confirms or refutes assertions suggesting that certain countries’ actions lead to escalation or deescalation. They also provide a solid foundation for future research, which could take specific countries as individual case studies to further investigate the relationships between state involvement and South China Sea tensions. Moreover, the results indicate that there may be even more interesting phenomena at play that merit attention in future research: evidence suggesting that certain countries may either contribute to lower tensions or avoid becoming involved when there are heightened tensions, and evidence that some countries may not be contributing to but instead reacting to tensions and volatility in the South China Sea. For RQ2, two of the four forecast models perform better than the four benchmark models using both datasets. These findings also have important implications for policy and research. As governments become increasingly interested in using continuously updated global databases to facilitate policy-making, the results suggest that empirical data can help to inform conclusions about trends of escalation and deescalation in the South China Sea and be used to make relevant predictions. As a first cut at the data and a pioneering approach to analyzing South China Sea tensions, the analyses and findings of this dissertation represent a significant contribution to knowledge and a foundation for future research using time-series event data to understand the relationship between state involvement and tensions and the extent to which tensions can be forecasted in the South China Sea and around the world.