南海諸島不僅擁有豐富的資源，更處於重要的戰略位置，目前共有六個主要 聲索國主張對南海諸島擁有領土主權，分別是中華民國、中國大陸、菲律賓、越 南、馬來西亞與汶萊，美國雖然不是聲索國，但基於維護其在南海的重要利益， 所以也涉入南海的紛爭，這使得南海的局勢更加複雜。 我國、中國大陸與菲律賓皆主張對南海諸島中的黃岩島享有主權，2012 年中 國大陸與菲律賓之間爆發了黃岩島事件，更使南海的緊張情勢升至最高，於是菲 律賓便訴諸於國際仲裁法庭，仲裁庭並未就主權的歸屬作出判決，而是對《聯合 國海洋法公約》的解釋問題作出裁判，但南海諸島的主權爭奪仍就方興未艾。 有關領土主權的取得，1928 年帕瑪斯島案的仲裁法官指出「持續與和平展示 領土主權幾乎就等於主權本身」，而這便是「有效統治」的核心，本文因此挑選 四個與有效統治高度相關的國際司法機構判決來作分析，並參酌相關國際法的原 則與發展，以歸納出「有效統治」的構成要件、衡量指標與法律效果，並利用這 個歸納結果來對我國、中國大陸與菲律賓在黃岩島領土主權的爭端進行分析，判 斷結果雖是我國擁有黃岩島的領土主權，但由於我國目前沒有實質控制該島礁， 因此本文也試著提出具體建議來強化我國的主張。 / The islands of the South China Sea (SCS) not only have an abundance of resources, but also are strategically located. There are six major countries that claim territorial sovereignty over the islands, including the R.O.C. (Taiwan), Mainland China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei. Although the U.S.A. is not one of the claimants, it is still involved in the SCS dispute because of its important interests in that region. Thus, the situation in the SCS has become more complicated. Taiwan, Mainland China, and the Philippines all claim to have sovereignty over Huangyen Island in the SCS. The “Huangyen Island Incident” between Mainland China and the Philippines broke out in 2012, bringing tensions in SCS to a height. The Philippines thus resorted to the international Arbitral Tribunal. The tribunal didn’t make a ruling on sovereignty, but it made a ruling regarding the explanatory question of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. However, the tit-for-tat over the sovereignty of the SCS islands continues. Regarding the acquisition of territorial sovereignty, the arbitrator of the 1928 Palmas case indicated that, “the continuous and peaceful display of territorial sovereignty is as good as a title.” This is the exact the core of effectivités. To conclude the components, indicators and the legal effect of the effectivités, the thesis thus considered related principals and development of international law, and selected four rulings of international judicial bodies to analyze, as these four ruling are highly-relevant to effectivités. Furthermore, based on the results of the above analysis, this thesis also analyzes the territorial sovereignty dispute over Huangyen Island among Taiwan, Mainland China, and the Philippines. The analysis concludes that Taiwan has the territorial sovereignty over Huangyen Island. Given the fact that Taiwan doesn't substantially control it, the thesis also tries to come up with advice to strengthen Taiwan’s claim.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第24425号 / 理博第4924号 / 新制||理||1704(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)准教授 伊藤 喜宏, 教授 澁谷 拓郎, 教授 王 功輝 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(情報学) / 甲第24035号 / 情博第791号 / 新制||情||134(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院情報学研究科社会情報学専攻 / (主査)教授 矢守 克也, 教授 多々納 裕一, 教授 畑山 満則 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Informatics / Kyoto University / DFAM

摘要 本研究採用賽局理論 (stag-hunt model) 來推論假設南海海上交通線 (SLOCs) 安全合作的情形．根據結果顯示，爭奪南海的國家，其解決衝突最好的策略應以合作的方式來提昇無論是在石油進口、貿易活動以及該地區船隻航行等方面的安全性。 為縮短假設情境與現實情況的差距，一方面，我們找出海上交通線安全合作之難點：主權、資源、和軍事發展；另一方面，也提出能促進其合作的正面因素：舊有的海上聯合巡邏、非傳統安全合作相關領堿、以及未來的南海行為準則 (SCS COC)。 最後我們介紹了「南海太平島提案」，試圖建立與協調新的海上聯合巡邏來降低該地區的緊張關係，建立彼此之間的信任，並改善衝突的情況。 根據本研究結論表示，我們的研究發現以及一些政策將能協助實施南海海上交通線安全的合作。 / Abstract This research applies game theory (stag-hunt model) to a hypothetical situation of cooperation on Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) protection in South China Sea (SCS). The results indicate that, in theory, the best option for all disputant countries in the issue is to cooperate in order to increase the security of their oil imports, trade, and ships crossing the region. To overcome the gap between the theoretical model and the reality, we have identified those factors that will hinder the implementation of cooperation on SLOCs protection, sovereignty, resources, and military development; as well as those that can be used to counterbalance the effect of negative ones, previous joint maritime patrols, non-traditional security cooperation, and the future South China Sea Code of Conduct (SCS COC). Finally, we have presented the South China Sea Peace Island Initiative, a proposal to coordinate and create new joint maritime patrols in the region as a mean to reduce tensions, build confidence, and improve the relationship between disputants. We conclude presenting the main findings of this research, as well as those policies that will be useful to implement cooperation on SLOCs protection in SCS.

“21世紀海上絲綢之路”倡議與絲綢之路經濟帶的傳輸紐帶關係，發展成為“一帶一路”倡議，為中共在2013年所提出的戰略構想。 就美國而言，由於其經濟實力受金融危機影響減弱，透過積極干涉南海爭端，可協助其順利推進亞太戰略轉向，強化本國在東亞地區的權力基礎，並制約中國勢力擴張。相對於中共來說，應有效應對美國實施重返亞太戰略可能產生的各種不利影響。 本文探討對於共同建設的“21世紀海上絲綢之路”倡議，需要沿線各國與經濟體共同努力，願景需要由政治互信不斷增強，未來發展建置議程，共同促進聯合行動方案的互聯互通。 / The initiative of “One belt, one Road” means the economic belt of Land route of Silk Road connecting Mainland China with the countries of Central Asia and the transport ties of the Maritime Silk Road connecting Mainland China with the countries of ASEAN, which has been making a strategic formulation put forward by the People's Republic of China since 2013. The impact of islands disputes between China and Philippines on the security of South China Sea, as far as the United States is concerned, with its economic strength weakened by the financial crisis, by proactively interfering with that, it helps successfully reorient its regional strategy, strengthen the U.S. power base in East Asia, and prevent China from expanding further. On the other side, to the PRC., effective strategies should be put forward to all kinds of disadvantageous influences of America's returning to the Asia-Pacific region. This article argues that jointly building the initiative of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road is required all parties to work together, the vision needs to be built for future development by increasing political mutual trust as well as development agenda so as to jointly promote inter connectivity.

本研究旨在探討中國大陸如何運用經濟工具與菲律賓、越南應處南海爭端。參照Keohane及Nye非對稱互賴理論（asymmetrical interdependence）提出之敏感性（sensitivity）、脆弱性（vulnerability）概念，本研究分析中國大陸自1997年採取「魅力攻勢（Charm Offensive）」策略，為其創造可供運用經濟誘因（economic attraction）及經濟脅迫（economic coercion）之戰略空間，期能使菲、越等經濟實力相對弱勢國家，在領土爭端方面知所退讓。然而，從經濟誘因之敏感性以觀，研究發現菲、越兩國例證，均無以支持經濟誘因能說服相對弱勢國家減緩聲索之論述。針此，研究者提出「信任（trust）」或可作為補強Keohane及Nye分析框架要項之一；意即中國大陸與其經濟夥伴之間若政治信任不足，則中國大陸欲藉提供經濟誘因，促其經濟夥伴在領土爭端有所退讓，勢必存在相當難度。另從經濟脅迫之脆弱性以觀，研究發現菲、越兩國例證顯示，有別於運用實質性手段（substantive measures）施壓造成之短期損失，採取象徵性手段（symbolic measures）所映射之高度風險與不確定性，對於威懾經濟實力相對弱勢國家，可能更具效力。 / This study explores how China has employed economic instruments in handling South China Sea disputes with the Philippines and Vietnam. Borrowing Keohane and Nye’s notations of sensitivity and vulnerability in asymmetrical interdependence, this study analyzes how China’s charm offensive strategy developed since 1997 has created tactical spaces for China to utilize economic attractions and economic coercions in making her weaker economic partners to concede in territorial disputes. In terms of sensitivity to economic attractions, nevertheless, findings in both cases fail to support the argument that economic incentives would persuade the weaker parties to refrain their claims. I argue that one of the missing elements in Keohane and Nye’s analytical framework is “trust”. Without sufficient political “trust” between China and her economic partners, economic attractions to induce concessions could hardly work. In terms of vulnerability to economic coercions, findings in both cases suggest that compared to the substantive measures stressing the short-term loss, the symbolic measures projecting to high degree of risks and uncertainties might be more effective to deter the weaker parties.

摘要 近十年來，北京已轉變它在東南亞區域的外交政策，希望與東盟成員國家能維持一定的良好關係，並發展出一個和平又互利的戰略夥伴關係。1997年到2012年之間，中國與東盟從建立對話機制開始，雙方實質上的經貿投資與聯合計畫都快速增長。從多方面顯示：不僅在政治、經濟與維持區域安全等方面，中國與東盟成員都已共享務實的合作成果，近來更大力拓展雙方的互連互通與交通基礎建設，期使共同邁向實質的中國－東盟戰略夥伴關係。 南中國海周邊各國的利害與衝突不一，是個複雜的區域；而中國與東盟成員之間的對話機制與合作關係的基礎上，有助於減緩此一緊張情勢。本報將採用文獻分析的定性研究方法告指出（實際上）（1）北京的東南亞外交政策正面臨的主要挑戰是有東盟以外國家新勢力的強力介入或是舊有勢力的急速恢復，進而互相抗衡。（2）中國被稱為有過分自信的政策規劃期間，北京在推動與東盟戰略夥伴關係，實際上中國與東盟成員關系都已共享務實的合作成果。 / Abstract China-ASEAN relations have been transformed over the last decade by Beijing’s aim to create a stable neighboring environment as outlined in its state policy of peaceful development. This relationship has been embodied in a series of joint plans and statements with ASEAN between 1997 and 2012. In the three areas of politics and security, economy, and connectivity and infrastructure, the paper will show the relationship has followed a similar pattern, that is cooperation has been deepened according to China’s aims for its relationship with Southeast Asia. While relations have continued to develop in these areas, constant focus on the issues of assertiveness and territorial disputes, particularly over the last 3 years, means that progress and development in the relationship often receives little attention. The South China Sea is a complex issue, however security-related dialogue between China and ASEAN member states will be shown to have mitigated this problem to a certain extent. The paper will show that the challenges to Beijing’s policy lies with countries from outside the sub-region and their return, or growing role in Southeast Asian affairs, and that in fact during the period when China has been labeled more ‘assertive’ its relationship with ASEAN has deepened and developed as planned. In its use of materials the paper will employ the qualitative research method of document analysis.