歐式信用違約交換選擇權通常都以短天期較富流動信，造成這樣情形的原因很可能是因為長天期的信用違約交換選擇權必須承擔標的公司的倒閉風險。美式信用違約交換選擇權讓持有者可以在選擇權到期以前履約，這使得持有者可以只注意信用違約交換溢酬的變動，而不必擔心標的公司的倒閉風險。在這篇論文當中，我們結合最小平方法以及單期信用違約溢酬模型評價美式信用違約交換選擇權，其中單期信用違約溢酬模型是由布瑞格在2004年所發表的模型。本篇論文評價方法的最大優點在於此方法類似於利率理論的市場模型，因此我們可以利用類似的想法評價任何與信用違約交換合約相關的信用衍生性商品。 / The most liquid European CDS options are usually of short maturities. This may result from that options with longer maturity have to bear more default risk of the reference company. American CDS options allow the holders to exercise options before option matures so that they can focus on spread movements without worrying about default risk. In this paper, we price American CDS options with one-period CDS spread model presented by Brigo (2004). The primary advantage of this model is that it is similar to LIBOR market model in interest rate theory. Therefore, path-dependent CDS-related products can be easily priced with familiar ideas.

在過去二到三年之中，能源、金屬、軟性商品等原物料價格漲勢強勁，成為市場上最炙手可熱的商品。然而，原物料價格漲升為全球帶來了通膨隱憂，世界各國紛紛採用各種貨幣政策和財政政策試圖緩解通膨壓力。其中，利率政策即是相當重要的一環。在這樣的背景之下，是否對於能源、貴金屬和利率衍生性商品的設計和定價上產生影響，值得進一步檢視。因此，本論文選擇以中國大陸的原油與黃金連結複合式選擇權，以及利率（HIBOR）連結可贖回每日區間計息等兩種結構性存款作為研究個案，以財務工程的理論模型為中國銀行的金融創新產品作評價與分析。 在原油與黃金連結複合式選擇權部分，分別假設金價和油價服從幾何布朗運動（Geometric Brownian Motion）推導出封閉解，以及Schwartz的一因子均數回歸模型，採蒙地卡羅模擬法模擬標的資產之價格路徑並以之估算商品理論價值和發行機構利潤，之後則就避險參數和商品預期收益率作分析。在利率連結可贖回每日區間計息結構性存款部分，由於具有發行機構可提前贖回的特性，本論文採用LIBOR市場模型（BGM Model）為評價基礎，先利用市場報價資訊計算期初遠期利率及進行參數校準，再以蒙地卡羅模擬法模擬遠期利率路徑，最後以Longstaff and Schwartz（2001）提出的最小平方蒙地卡羅法（LSM）計算商品理論價值和發行機構利潤。 除估算商品理論價值以檢視中國銀行的商品定價合理性之外，本文也針對中國大陸的外匯和利率政策對金融機構在商品設計方面的影響作分析，最後則分別就財務工程與金融創新以及總體政策與金融市場兩方面提出結論與建議，以供各界參酌。 / The prices of physical commodities have risen a lot and led to pressure of inflation for several years. Many countries over the world have tried hard to tackle inflation threat with monetary and fiscal policies. Under this circumstance, the design and pricing of structured products should be affected. Therefore, the oil and gold-linked and interest rate-linked structured deposits launched by Bank of China are selected to be the case study in this thesis. Prices of the underlying assets are assumed to follow Geometric Brownian Motion, and the close-form solution of the oil and gold-linked structured deposit embedded with compound options is derived. Moreover, Schwartz’s One-Factor Mean Reversion Model is adopted to derive the fair value by simulation. In addition to the fair value and issuer’s profit, the expected rate of return, hedge parameters (Greeks) and model difference are presented in this thesis. As for the interest rate-linked Callable Daily Range Accrual Deposit, the thesis presents the steps of pricing by simulation. LIBOR Market Model (BGM Model) is adopted to derive the fair value of Callable Range Deposit with Least Squares Monte Carlo approach. Besides, the design and pricing of structured products are actually influenced by those policies in relation to interest rates and currencies adopted by government of Mainland China. The influence is discussed in the thesis as well. Eventually, the conclusions and suggestions are made with respect to macroeconomic policy and financial market as well as financial innovation.

本文針對躉繳保費的附保證變額壽險進行評價，保單形式為生死合險，假設投保人可將期初的投資金額連結到兩種投資標的：股價指數及債券型基金，並以BGM模型描述利率的動態過程，然後分別計算不含解約權及含解約權的附保證變額壽險躉繳保費，進而求算出隱含在保單中的保證價值和解約權價值。針對含解約權的附保證變額壽險，以Longstaff and Schwartz(2001)提出的最小平方蒙地卡羅法處理解約的問題。最後，我們求算不同年齡下的男性保費，並且在投資比例、起始最低保證、最低保證給付成長率、針對解約的保證給付成長率和第一個允許的解約時點變動下，分別討論對於保證價值和解約權價值的影響。 結果顯示：(1)當起始最低保證給付等於期初投資金額時，投資在股票的比例越大，越能凸顯保證價值和解約權價值佔保費的比重。以30歲男性為例，保證價值佔不含解約權之附保證變額壽險的比例，由全部投資在債券型基金的0.03%，成長到全部投資在股票的13.86%；而解約權價值佔含解約權之附保證變額壽險的比例，由全部投資在債券型基金的0.05%，成長到全部投資在股票的9.12%。(2)投資比例、起始最低保證給付和最低保證給付成長率越大，保證價值越高。(3)起始最低保證給付和針對解約的保證給付成長率越大，解約權價值越大；而最低保證給付成長率和第一個允許的解約時點越大，解約權價值越小。(4)投資比例隨著最低保證給付不同對解約權價值有不同的影響。 關鍵字：附保證變額壽險、BGM利率模型、解約選擇權、最小平方蒙地卡羅法 / This study emphasizes on the pricing of variable life insurance with minimum guarantees. As an endowment policy in a single premium form, in this paper, it is assumed that the insured can distribute the initial investment amount into two underlying assets: the stock index fund and bond fund. Simulating the interest rate under a BGM model, computational procedures are performed for the single premium of the variable life insurance policy without surrender option and embedding a surrender option, and further, the guarantee value and surrender value embedded in the insurance policy. For the variable life insurance policy embedding a surrender option, the Least Square Monte-Carlo method proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz (2001) is applied to solve the surrender conditions. Finally, we calculate the premium for a male at different ages, and respectively analyze the variations of the guarantee value and surrender value under the influence of the investment portfolio, the initial minimum guaranteed amount, the growth rate of the minimum guarantee, the growth rate of the minimum guarantee for surrender and the first permitted surrender time. The results show that: (1) when the initial minimum guaranteed amount equals the initial investment amount, higher proportion invested in stock will result in larger percentage of the guarantee value and surrender value to total premium. Take a 30-year old male as an example: the percentage of guarantee value to the premium of variable life insurance with minimum guarantee and without a surrender option, which is 0.03% when the initial investment amount thoroughly goes to bond fund, rises up to 13.86% with the entire amount invested in stock index fund. Likewise, the percentage of surrender value to the premium of variable life insurance with minimum guarantee and surrender option is 0.05% with total amount invested in bond fund, while it is 9.12% with the entire amount invested in stock index fund. (2) The higher proportion invested in stock, the initial minimum guaranteed amount and the growth rate of minimum guaranteed amount, the larger guarantee value. (3) Larger initial minimum guaranteed amount and the growth rate of the minimum guaranteed amount for surrender would contribute to a higher surrender value. The higher growth rate of the minimum guaranteed amount and the first permitted surrender time, the lower surrender value. (4) The influence of the investment portfolio to surrender value depends on the initial minimum guaranteed amount. Key words: Variable life insurance with minimum guaranteed amount, BGM interest rate model, surrender option, least squares Monte Carlo approach.

本研究旨在應用書目計量學方法分析1900年至2007年間，輸送現象文獻之特性，藉以探討輸送現象之發展情形。研究樣本取自SCIE資料庫，計104854篇相關書目資料。期望本研究結果能提供輸送現象學界與圖書館或資料單位參考，協助其做有效之館藏規劃及期刊資訊服務。 本研究結果歸納如下：(1)輸送現象文獻成長狀況目前呈穩定成長狀態，1965年後之文獻累積成長曲線符合指數成長。(2)輸送現象文獻之主要出版國為美國、英國、荷蘭、瑞士、德國、日本等國。台灣文獻出版量之排名則為第22名。(3)英文為輸送現象文獻最重要之寫作語文，德文、法文、俄文、日文依序於後。(4)輸送現象文獻之出版類型以期刊文章為主，佔總文獻之91.37%。(5)本研究不符合布萊德福定律，但符合布萊德福-齊夫定律曲線，求得之核心期刊有八種，分別為美國及英國所出版。(6)以高被引期刊、影響係數以及被資料庫收錄情況等方式，驗證布萊德福分區法所求之核心期刊品質，發現核心期刊品質值得信任。(7)以洛卡定律最小平方法求得n值為-2.5141(平等法)、-2.5389(第一作者法)，c值為0.7488(平等法)、0.7546(第一作者法)，進一步利用K-S檢定法加以檢定，證明洛卡定律並不適用於本研究。(8)本研究之作者生產力分佈不符合普萊斯平方根定律與80/20定律。(9)印度理工學院為輸送現象文獻重要的生產機構；台灣則為國立成功大學。總生產力台灣排名世界第22。(10)美國、法國、德國、日本、俄羅斯為相關研究機構最多的國家；英國、美國、荷蘭、瑞士則為最具吸收他國研究成果的學術傳播環境。 本研究最後依據研究發現之結果，提出以下建議：(1)本研究之各項研究成果，可作為圖書資訊界館藏發展與管理之參考。(2)輸送現象產業界應加強對於研究的重視。(3)輸送現象相關研究人員，應具備英文、德文、法文、俄文等外語能力。(4)資料庫公司應提升書目資料精確性，以利研究。(5)定期對輸送現象文獻進行分析，有助於輸送現象相關研究人員瞭解該領域之研究發展。 / This study analyzed the characteristics of transport phenomenon literature during 1900-2007 by a bibliometric approach. A total of 104854 bibliographic data were retrieved from SCIE database. The results attempt to have a better understanding of the developments and trends on transport phenomenon reaserch. The results of the present study reveal that: (1) Transport Phenomenon literature increased steadily. The growth curve during 1965-2007 fits exponential growth. (2)USA, UK, Netherlands, Switzerland, Germany and Japan are the major countries of Transport Phenomenon publications. Taiwan ranked 22. (3)English is the most often used language. German ranked number two and the third most often used language is French. (4)Journal article is the major of publication and accounted for 91.37% of total publication. (5)The journal article distribution doesn't fit Bradford Law. However, it fits the typical Bradford-Zipf’s S-shaped curve. (6)Core journals are found to be associated with highly cited times and high impact factor. (7)For only counting first author, Lotka’s law is found to be inapplicable to author productivity distribution with n=-2.5389, c=0.7488. The K-S test also explored the invalidity of observed distribution at 0.01 level of significance. (8) Author productivity distribution also does’t fit Price Square Root Law and 80/20 Rule. (9) Indian Institute of Technology is the most important institute of Transport Phenomenon publications. In Taiwan, National Cheng Kung University published the most Transport Phenomenon literature and it ranked 22. (10)USA, French, Germany, Japan and Russia have the most relevant research institutions than other countries.

可轉換公司債兼具了選擇權以及債券的性質，價值又會受到股價之影響，以傳統的方法定價十分不易。由於蒙地卡羅模擬能解決定價問題上狀態變數或許為多維度及路徑相依的問題，Kind 與Wilde 在2004 年提出以蒙地卡羅模擬對可轉債定價，且以最小平方迴歸法估計繼續持有價值，並在僅考慮轉換及還本兩種選擇權及沒有違約風險之下，以數值範例呈現單一迴歸模式無法適當估計繼續持有價值。然而，他們並未進行實證。本研究乃以民國99 年台灣發行的可轉債為研究對象，除考慮發行時的合約條件外，另加上信用評等的考量以將違約機率透過現金流量套入定價過程中，並分別以兩段迴歸及單一迴歸估計繼續持有價值以結合蒙地卡羅模擬，實證結果顯示就可轉債之起始定價的偏差比而言，兩段迴歸得到的結果優於單一迴歸。惟在兩段迴歸之下，超過八成的可轉債其模擬價格依然高於市場價格。實證結果也顯示價性(moneyness)及擔保狀況與定價的偏差有關。 / Convertible bonds (CBs) possess features of both bonds and options, and their prices are affected by the underlying stocks, which make the pricing problem an uneasy task for traditional methods. Since Monte Carlo simulation can handle the problems of path-dependence and multivariate dimensions faced by pricing, Kind and Wilde (2004) suggested to price CBs via least-squares Monte Carlo simulations (LSM), which estimate the continuation values by least squares regression. They also demonstrated that a single regression line could not appropriately estimate the continuation value even only conversion and redemption were allowed and the CB was free of default. So the idea of piecewise regression was recommended to improve the estimation process. However, they didn’t apply piecewise regression to real data. Therefore, piecewise regression together with Monte Carlo simulation were employed to investigate the pricing issue of Taiwan’s CBs. CBs issued on 2010 were selected, besides reviewing the contents of CB’s contracts, default risks based on credit ratings were taken into account to evaluate the discounted cash flows in the pricing procedure. Comparing the estimated model prices of LSM with initial selling prices, the mispricing rates of single regression model and piecewise regression model were obtained for further analysis. Result shows that the modified piecewise regression method performs better in mispricing rate. However, similar to previous findings, 80% of the estimated model prices based on piecewise regressions are still higher than market prices. It also shows that moneyness and guaranteed condition will relate to mispricing rate.

聯邦模型（Fed Model）為一簡單股市報酬估計模型，認為股市之報酬率與政府十年期公債殖利率相近。本研究以此模型對亞太地區十個市場進行探討，並以反序累積平方和（Reversed Ordered Cusum squared，ROC）的方式偵測市場之結構變異，以做出更精確的預測與分析。所研究的市場包括澳洲、紐西蘭、日本、台灣、南韓、新加坡、香港、泰國、馬來西亞、以及菲律賓。我們得到的結論認為聯邦模型在澳洲、紐西蘭、日本、南韓、新加坡、及菲律賓的確有其效果存在，且在考量可能產生結構變異的時間點後，可使預測準確度提高。因此，我們可採用聯邦模型，做為資產在股市與債市間配置之參考工具。 / The Fed Model indicates that the stock market returns are very close to the long-term government bond yields. This article examines the Fed model in 10 main Asia-Pacific markets- Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, Malaysia, and Philippine. The Reversed Ordered Cusum squared (ROC) test is used to detect the structural changes, and improve the out-of-sample forecasting results. We conclude that the Fed Model has some prediction power in these 10 markets, and can be considered as a useful dynamic asset allocation tool.

1980-2004年，台灣製造業勞動薪資隨時間持續增加，但是技術與非技術勞動之相對薪資卻大致呈現下滑趨勢。根據過去文獻，影響技術與非技術勞動相對薪資的原因有很多，諸如貿易、對外投資等國際分工方法。本研究主要分析對外投資影響台灣技術與非技術勞動薪資變動的情形，至於貿易等其他因素造成之影響，本文將不進行討論。 我們先從廠商利潤極大化之角度出發，推導出本研究所需之薪資決定方程式後，利用1980-2004年間，台灣製造業之整合資料，以三階段最小平方法，同時對技術及非技術勞動薪資方程式，進行迴歸分析。融合林祖嘉與黃啟宏（2006）之研究，得到下列結果： 1.整體製造業對外投資促進產業升級。廠商在既有的產出下，對外投資增加技術勞動需求，減少非技術勞動需求。同時，技術勞動供給增加，且幅度小於需求增加之幅度，使得技術勞動均衡雇用量及薪資皆上揚。非技術勞動之薪資也因需求減少而下降。 2.資本密集製造業在對外投資的過程中，僅增加了技術勞動的需求，並未減少非技術勞動的需求。相反的，台商赴海外投資非資本密集製造業，將減少其非技術勞動需求。顯示資本密集製造業勞動在對外投資中受益，非資本密集製造業勞動在對外投資中受害。 3.對個別勞動者而言，無論其為技術或非技術勞動，在資本密集製造業工作，都能使其免於承受台商對外投資，間接造成之薪資銳減。 如同我們的預期，技術勞動供給因教育普及而增加，技術勞動的均衡薪資可能隨之降低，但因為對外投資抵銷了技術勞動供給的影響，甚至使技術勞動薪資上升。另一方面，非技術勞動因對外投資，造成產業之需求銳減，使其薪資下降。因此製造業技術及非技術勞動的薪資差距，會因為對外投資金額增加而上升。

許多公司在發行公司債的時候，會給此公司債一個可提前贖回的特性，此種公司債稱為可贖回公司債(Callable Bond)，用來規避利率變動風險的金融商品也與我們熟知的利率交換不同，稱為可取消利率交換(Cancelable Swap)。其實可取消利率交換可以拆解成百慕達利率交換選擇權(Bermudan Swaption)加上利率交換，由於利率交換之評價較簡單也有市場一致的評價方法，因此百慕達利率交換選擇權便成為評價的重點。 評價的部分，由於百慕達式的商品有提前履約的特性，造成其封閉解不存在，因此需要利用其他的近似解或是數值方法來求它的價格。由於本文採用BGM(1997)的市場利率模型(Libor Market Model)，其高維度的性質導致數狀方法與有限差分法使用起來較無效率，因此本文選擇使用蒙地卡羅法做為評價的方法，同時利用Longstaff and Schwartz(2001)的最小平方蒙地卡羅法(Least Squares Monte Carlo Method)來解決提前履約的問題。 最後，本文將採用2種利率波動度假設與2種不同利率間相關係數的假設，共4種組合，在歐式利率交換選擇權的市場波動度下進行校準，使用校準出來的參數進行評價來得到4種價格。再進行商品的敏感度分析(Sensitivity Analysis)和風險值(Value at Risk)的計算。

本研究旨在應用書目計量學方法分析1900年至2013年間，女性研究文獻之特性，藉以探討女性研究之發展情形。研究樣本取自WOS資料庫（包含三個子資料庫SSCI、SCIE和A&HCI），計16,852篇相關書目資料。期望本研究結果能提供女性研究學界與圖書館或資料單位參考，協助其做有效之館藏規劃及期刊資訊服務。 本研究結果歸納如下：(1) 女性研究文獻篇數與年代是成正比的狀況，較符合指數成長模式。進一步以指數迴歸預測成長篇數的話，顯示女性研究文獻有成長減緩的趨勢。(2)女性研究文獻之主要出版國為美國、英國、加拿大、荷蘭、德國等國。 (3)英文為女性研究文獻最重要之寫作語文。(4)女性研究文獻之出版類型以期刊文章為主，佔總文獻之62.86%。(5)女性研究廣泛應用於各學科，主題領域前五名分別為心理學相關、女性研究（狹義）、歷史、文學及教育與教育研究。 (6) 女性研究之文獻分布相當分散，但仍有其核心期刊。(7)本研究符合布萊德福定律，但不符合布萊德福-齊夫定律曲線。(8) 高生產力期刊與高被引期刊的主題明顯分散。 (10) 洛卡定律、普萊斯平方根定律、80/20 定律不適用於本研究。(11) 研究機構的生產力分散，大學校院為主要研究機構，機構下的系所分布以心理學系所最多。(12) 美國與英國為相關研究機構最多的國家，也是延攬他國學術成果的最多的國家。 本研究最後依據研究發現之結果，提出以下建議：(1)本研究之各項研究成果，可作為圖書資訊界館藏發展與管理之參考。(2)女性研究相關研究人員，應具備跨主題領域的合作研究能力且法文、德文、西班牙文等外語能力。(4)資料庫公司應提升書目資料精確性，以利研究。(5)定期對女性研究文獻進行分析，有助於女性研究相關研究人員瞭解該領域之研究發展。 / The purpose of the study is to understand the contents, relations, development, and trends between various disciplines of “women’s studies.” This study analyzes the characteristics of women’s studies literature during 1900-2013 by bibliometric approach, collecting analytical components such as the frequencies of the publication, publication languages, countries of publications, journal sources, cited times, disciplines of subject categories and document type from three major sub-databases of Web of Science services: SCIE, SSCI, and A&HCI. A total of 16,852 bibliographic records were retrieved from the databases. The results of the present study are as follows. (1) The growth pattern of women’s studies literature during 1900-2013 generally fits exponential growth, but the growth has been slowed down since 2011. (2) United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Netherlands and Germany are five major countries of women’s studies publications. (3) English is the most often used language. (4) Journal articles are the major type of women’s studies publications, accounting for 62.86% of total publications. (5) Women’s studies are scattered in multiple disciplines, with five subjects significantly contributing to the literature count: psychology and its related disciplines, women’s studies (in narrow definition), history, literature, and education and educational research. (6) Despite of the scattered distribution of women’s studies literature, core journals of women’s studies still can be identified. (7)The distribution of journal articles fits Bradford Law, but it does not fit the typical Bradford-Zipf’s S-shaped curve. (8) The journal subjects of highly productive journals and highly cited journals vary. (9) Author distribution is counted by single authorship and collaborative authorship; the results show that author distribution neither fits Lotka’s law, Square Root Law or 80/20 Rule. (10) Academic institutions are major producers of women’s studies, with departments in universities and colleges concerning psychology and its related disciplines being the main contributors to the publications. (11) Most productive research institutions are distributed over United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and Turkey. The findings of the study may provide better understanding of the past, current and future of women’s studies, and serve as references to identify more suitable, popular and influential journals and literature for both research purposes and library collection development and management.

本論文採取歷史文獻分析與理解社會學(verstehende Soziologie)的研究途徑，從「以中國說中國」的方法入手，重視歷史事實作為論證基礎的功能與意義。 對中共「民主集中制」的研究在廣度與深度上都超乎中國大陸內部與外部學者在這方面的論述，系統化地借助中共黨史反映了民主集中制一般不為人所注意的關鍵面向。對民主集中制之作用的分析引導筆者發現，中國大陸總體面出現一個「黨、國家、社會」的三角形，這是在現階段與可預見之未來的人類文明中一個非常態的國家總體結構。筆者進而對照西方權力制衡的理論，反映出在民主集中制下是不可能發展出真正的權力制約與監督的機制的，民主集中制的內涵處處體現「一元化整體性控制意識」，民主與民主集中制之間無論就理論或現實運作都存在不可調和的矛盾。 改革開放以來的中共文化戰略奠基者為鄧小平，他的基本方法是將重心放在寄望以經濟建設的成果支持行為層面的紀律，進而鞏固精神思想層面的意識形態。順此，他主張「不搞爭論」與「堅持四項基本原則」，希望大力發展生產力，強調的是「工具理性」。這些其實都是受民主集中制之「一元化整體性控制意識」的影響。 筆者採用各種型態的資料與具體數據說明「『民主集中制』對文化戰略的影響」與「『民主集中制』對改革開放以來文化戰略與戰略造成的困難與挑戰」，呈現出中共文化戰略的不合理與不合時的性質。從文化戰略的視角可以看到許多中國大陸現今不易從單純的政治、經濟、社會的角度所能觀察到的問題。本論文針對此方面的解決方案與方向提出了一些線索與頭緒。 最後，解釋在第一章提出之胡錦濤表現的反差現象。其次，論證中國大陸的政治體制改革應為不可迴避的必要之務，民主改革未必對中共不利，可能更有利。同時回答第一章中共如何統治的問題。 / Adopting the approaches of historical document analyses and understanding sociology, this dissertation brings the method of explaining China in terms of China into bear and places importance on the function and meaning of historical facts as the departing basis of its discussions. Based on the Chinese Communist Party’s (the CCP hereafter) history, the dissertation systematically presents some key points of the CCP’s democratic centralism, to which attention was not paid. It shows wider and deeper understanding of the CCP’s democratic centralism. The understanding leads the author to notice the “party, state and society” triangle, which reflects the uniqueness of the structure of China as a country in the contemporary world. The CCP’s democratic centralism reflects “consciousness of unitary holistic control” and is in fact incompatible with democracy by its normal definition in respect of theory and practice. The foundation of the CCP’s cultural development since the reform and opening was laid by Deng Xiaoping, whose methodology laid stress on economic development. Deng hoped to accomplish some economic achievements to secure behavioral discipline among people and finally consolidate the party’s ideologies and theories. He therefore advocated “no disputes” and “insistence on four fundamental principles” and did his best to promote development of productivity, namely instrumental rationality. All he did embodied “consciousness of unitary holistic control,” so has the CCP’s cultural strategies done the same. Basing on different types of materials and data, the author analyzed the influences of the CCP’s democratic centralism on its cultural strategies and presented the difficulties and challenges to the strategies caused by the democratic centralism since the reform and opening. In the final chapter, the author explained Hu Jintao’s surprising reaction and answered the question how the CCP has been ruling the country. Both were mentioned in Chapter one.