本文主要是研究統計理論中的聯立信賴區間估計法，針對雙特徵數的指數母體，研究 位置特徵數的差異狀況。也就是要找出位置特徵數的所有複合比，所有對比的聯立信 賴區間。全文共分四章。第一章緒論，說明研究動機、目的及方法。第二章指數分布 的順序統計式，由於本文所使用的估計方法會使用到順序統計式，所以在本章中特別 研究順序統計式的某些線性組合，找出某些特殊的性質；並且將Tanis （１９６３） 提出的理論擴展至第二型設限數據。第三章位置特徵數的聯立信賴區間，藉由第二章 中導出的定理以Tukey 法及Holder不等式法找出聯立信賴區間，並且比較這些方法的 優劣。第四章結論及建議。全文共一冊，約兩萬字。

本文採用1990年至2004年10月之月資料，建立人民幣出口、進口及雙邊貿易之三項實質有效匯率指數。考量中國大陸特殊政、經情勢，以及加入WTO後，進出口貿易更加自由化的前提下，運用中國大陸進出口值、物價水準，建立人民幣實質有效匯率指數，所依循理論較無疑慮，而援引之數據亦無太大爭議。 為貼近中共當局宣稱建立「符合市場經濟的靈活的匯率制度」，本文選擇與中國前十二大貿易夥伴組成一籃子貨幣，用以編纂人民幣實質有效匯率指數，將現行釘住美元之匯率改為釘住「一籃子」貨幣，能有效反映人民幣價值，亦可衡量中國外貿競爭力。 實證結果發現，相對於基期(2000年)，1990∼1993年指數多低於100，幣值高估；1994年匯率併軌，匯價發生結構性改變，幣值過度低估，後指數逐步下跌，1997年趨近均衡匯率。1997年亞洲金融風暴至2002年，甚至出現與均衡匯率並無太大偏離現象，即便有所失調亦能在短期內適切調整。2002年下半年至2004年年底，匯價低估趨勢確立，但偏離均衡匯率僅5％上下，幅度不太。 中國宣稱要「和平崛起」，自應承擔更多國際義務，人民幣升值是無可違逆的趨勢。為避免干擾經濟發展，勢必採行積極之管理浮動匯率制度，釘住一籃子貨幣並設定幅度狹窄之浮動區間「微調」。匯價調整時機，除衡酌自身經濟面的條件，尚須納入國際政治面的考量，由中共官方談話研判，人民幣升值，將是無預警的，出其不意的。 / In this paper monthly data from 1990 through October 2004 are used to establish real effective exchange rate indices of RMB for export, import and bilateral trading respectively. These real effective exchange rate indices are established taking the particular political and economic conditions in China into consideration, based on the increasingly liberation of importation and exportation after joining WTO, and using China’s import and export volume as well as its CPI. The theory used is doubtlessly correct and there is no much dispute on the data referred herein. To adhere with what the China government proclaimed: “a flexible exchange rate meeting the market economics”, currencies of its top 12 trade partners are selected for a basket of currencies instead of pegging to US dollar, in forming the real effective exchange rate indices. These indices can effectively reflect RMB’s true value, and measure China’s foreign trade competition. According to the result of verification, in comparing with the base period (2000), the indices for 1990 – 1993 were mostly less than 100, representing that RMB was overvalued. In 1994 the exchange rates were unified, resulting in a structural change on foreign exchange rate, RMB was undervalued. Then, these indices fell gradually, and the exchange rate tended to become balanced in 1997. From 1997, while the Asian financial crisis happened, till 2002, there was no much deviation from the balanced exchange rate, i.e., even there was any out of balance, it was adjusted properly within a relatively short time. From the second half of 2002 till the end of 2004, the tendency of undervaluation was ascertained, by the deviation was only about 5%, the range was not so much. Proclaiming that it is going to “peacefully rise”, China should assume more international liabilities, and the appreciation of RMB is a non-reversible trend. To avoid interference to its economic development, China has no choice but to adopt an aggressively control on its floating exchange rate regime, pegging to a basket of currencies and setting up a relatively narrow range of tunnel for “snaking”. In addition of its own political economy, international political situation must be taken into consideration for timing of its exchange rate adjustment. From some China government officials’ statements, it can be seen that appreciation of RMB would be done without any warning in advance and unexpectedly.

近年來台灣筆記型電腦產業，在廠商延續過去多年的擴張競爭力下，在產值與產量上皆有大幅度的成長。但也由於低價風潮的盛行與全球景氣蕭條，使得該產業的獲利大不如從前；加重了國內廠商經營的困境與競爭程度，此時惟有掌握經營績效之廠商才可維持競爭優勢；以因應高度的競爭環境。在此同時，南韓已從金融風暴的創傷下逐漸走出；並挾帶著全球最大TFT-LCD及DRAM的量產國，並從輕薄型機種切入市場以及加入代工訂單的爭奪戰中。而日本擁有全球頂尖的設計創新能力，筆記型電腦自製率仍偏高。因此日、韓一直是台灣的主要競爭對手。 首先藉由資料包絡分析法評估我國筆記型電腦商於2000年至2003年間的經營效率；並為彌補DEA無法做跨時期的分析，應用Malmquist生產力指數予以分析；接著用Tobit迴歸分析來探討廠商無效率的原因。得到以下的結論： (1)於這4年間的技術效率平均值呈現年年上揚的情況，且規模較大的廠商不意謂著經營績效會較好。(2)這4年間的生產力亦是逐年提昇，主要是技術變動所致。(3)在Tobit迴歸分析中，存貨週轉率、總資產週轉率與品牌對效率有正向影響；而TCRI有負向影響。 接著對台、日、韓進行比較分析，得到以下結論：(1)台、日、韓三國的經營績效，以日本最優、韓其次、台最差；但日、韓的整體效率值逐年下滑，而台灣有逐漸改善的趨勢。(2)三國於2000~2001年間生產力皆下降，這與全球景氣蕭條及九一一事件有相當的關聯；2001~2002間由於無線上網的新技術致使消費性機種熱賣，因此於該期間，生產力呈提昇現象。(3)由Tobit迴歸分析得知存貨週轉率、總資產週轉率與經營年限對效率值有正向影響。 / In the recent years, Taiwanese Notebook manufacturers last the past years, extensions to make productive values and production grow up enormously. Due to the low price trend and global business trend stagnancy, resulting to profitability be not as good as the before for this industry. It deepens to operate and complete hard for the domestic manufacturers. At the same time, only the manufacturers that seizing operating the performance will maintain completing advantage to deal with highly completing enviornment. At the same time, South Korea has already got over from the shadow of 1998 crisis; and took along the most global productive country of TFT-LCD and DRAM; going into the market of frivolous type and join a battle of OEM/ODM orders. Japan owns global excellent design and capability of innovation and self-made ratio is still high. Therefore, Japan and South Korea are constantly Taiwanese major rivals. Firstly, it estimates how Taiwan Note Book manufacturers operate in 2000 to 2003 by Data Envelopment Analysis;In order to making up DEA not undertaking time-series analysis, using Malmquist Productivity Index to analyze; utilizing Tobit regression to analyze the factors that producers operate inefficiently. It gets the following conclusions:(1) In these four years, average technical efficiency is taken on rising year by year, and large scale producers do not imply better operating efficiency. (2) In these four years, the productivity is also rised year by year. This is due to technical change. (3) In Tobit regression analysis, there is a positive influence that inventory turnover, total asset turnover and brand affect efficiency; there is a negative influence that TCRI affects efficiency. This study gets the following conclusions;(1) For Taiwanese, Japanese and South Korea’ operating performance, Japan is the excellent, South Korea is the next, Taiwan is the worst. But Japanese and South Korea’ overall efficiency is worse year by year; Taiwan operating performance is gradually improved. (2) These three countries’ productivity decline from 2000 to 2001. It is concerned with global economic recession and 911 incident. The productivity is raised from 2001 to 2002. It results from WLAN type to sell briskly. Turnover ratio of inventory and turnover ratio of total asset tighter operating years all have a positive influence on efficiency.

台灣產業的發展一向與國際市場的脈動相連，光電產業也不例外，近幾年來在國際的夾擊之下依然發展得極為出色，與其他部分高科技產業共同支撐起台灣科技產業的命脈。所以本研究藉著資料包絡分析法 (data envelopment analysis, DEA) 的應用，透過計算整體技術效率、純粹技術效率、規模效率與 Malmquist 生產力指數，具體衡量出各廠商的生產效率值與跨期變化情形以供廠商參考。另外將光電產業依產品特性分成幾個次產業，為各次產業提出客觀的經營建議。最後由 Tobit 迴歸分析影響效率的重要因素，提供提升效率的參考，希望能對我國的光電產業有所幫助，而繼續為台灣科技產業的成長努力。 本研究以國內 30 家光電產業廠商於 2000 年至 2003 年之資料為研究範圍，選取的投入變數為：員工人數、固定資產、營業成本與營業費用四項，產出變數為營業收入淨額與稅前淨利。另外迴歸分析中使用的解釋變數為董監員工紅利率、存貨週轉率、負債比率、研發費用率、 TCRI 信用評等與董監持股比率。 研究結果顯示，整個光電產業整體無效率的原因較多是技術無效率導致，小部份是規模無效率造成的；而就每個次產業而言，以其四年平均值來看亦是受技術無效率影響較多。而在 Malmquist 生產力指數分析中發現，整個光電產業只有在 2000 年至 2001 年間，因技術退步的影響大於綜合技術效率進步的影響，而使得生產力衰退，往後的期間皆呈現進步的態勢。而在次產業方面，綜合技術效率的退步導致光通訊產業在 2001 年至 2002 年間的生產力衰退；技術的退步使得 2002 年至 2003 年間的光輸出入產業產生生產力的衰退。 最後，在迴歸分析中的結果為存貨週轉率對於整體技術效率有著顯著的正向影響；研發費用率是顯著的負向影響。而在純粹技術效率部份，存貨週轉率有顯著正向影響；TCRI評等越佳，TCRI 值越低，純粹技術效率越好。 / Taiwan's industries are always connected closely with international market, and optoelectronic industry is no exception. Through keenly competence these years, it is still brilliant and boosts the lifeline of Taiwan's Technology industry with other Hi-tech industries. So this research uses data envelopment analysis as objective references to enhance production efficiency. First we divide the whole optoelectronic industry into several sub-industries according to the characteristics of their products, and calculate every firm and sub-industry’s values of technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency, scale efficiency and Malmquist index definitely. Then we analyze the key factors influencing production efficiency and offer references for helping optoelectronic industry better. This research is based on the data of 30 optoelectronic firms in Taiwan during the 2000-2003 periods. We use the number of employee, fixed assets, operating costs and operating expenses as input variables; net sales revenue and net income before taxes as output variables. Besides, the explanatory variables in regression analysis are the percentage of bonus accounting for operating net amount, inventory turns, debt ratio, the percentage of R&D expenses accounting for operating net amount, TCRI, share holding on directors. The result shows that inefficiency in the whole industry and sub-industries mainly comes from technical inefficiency. MPI demonstrates that productivity of the whole industry is declined only during 2000-2001 period and it is because of declined technology. And declined technical efficiency results in the declined productivity of fiber-communication industry between 2001-2002; declined technology results in the declined productivity of optical input/output devices industry between 2002-2003. Under regression analysis, the result shows that inventory turnovers have a significant positive effect on efficiency; the percentage of R&D expenses accounting for operating net amount has a significant negative effect on efficiency. And about pure technical efficiency, inventory turn has a significant positive effect; TCRI has a significant negative effect.

為了因應國內金融產業多元化、跨業經營的發展，立法院於民國90年6月27日通過「金融控股公司法」，截至2003年底止，我國一共有14家金融控股公司成立，而國內金融界也隨著一家一家金融控股公司的成立，掀起一波波合併及併購的風潮，由於金融機構未來互相合併、朝向大型化及多元化的趨勢明顯，因此，金融控股公司多角化的經營是否能夠發揮其效益是值得我們去探討的。 本文利用非參數邊界法，以及Ferrier et al.（1993）所提出的多角化經濟程度指標，來評估2002與2003年包含銀行、證券及保險營收三項產出的6家多角化金融控股公司之相對效率，並分析其無效率之來源，以及衡量其是否存在多角化經濟。另外，本文以投入導向的MPI評估台灣金融控股公司2002至2003年生產力變動的情形。 實証結果發現，6家包含銀行、證券及保險營收三項產出的多角化金融控股公司，都存在有多角化經濟的現象，表示金融控股公司多角化的發展與跨業經營確有其成本上的效益。另外，比較生產力變動的各項數值，多角化金融控股公司均低於非多角化金融控股公司，顯示多角化的效益並未反應在效率以及生產力的成長上。 / This paper adopts a nonparametric frontier method and the measure define by Ferrier et al. (1993) to evaluate efficiency and economies of diversification of 6 diversification financial holding companies which contain banking, security and insurance in Taiwan in 2002 and 2003. In addition, we use input-oriented Malmquist productivity index to study the productivity change of financial holding companies in Taiwan during 2002-2003. Empirical results indicate that 6 diversification financial holding companies all exhibit economies of diversification. Product diversification of financial holding company indeed has its effect on cost. In addition, compare every component of productivity change, we find non-diversification financial holding companies have better performance than diversification financial holding companies. The effect of diversification has not exhibit on the growth of efficiency and productivity.

台灣的IC設計產業總產值全球僅次於美國，自從九零年代中期成為我國極受矚目的產業。因此本研究所探討的主題為全球IC設計產業的生產效率分析，以2003年全球營收前卅大IC設計廠商為樣本。透過資料包絡法(Data Envelopment Analysis，DEA)，針對不同地區與個別廠商進行2000年至2002年的效率分析，最後進行Tobit迴歸分析，求得影響廠商生產績效的因子，提供本國廠商改善效率的參考，實證結果為： 1.DEA跨國比較的結果顯示，在2000年至2002年整體技術效率值最高的地區為美國，在2000年與2001年為台灣整體技術效率值僅次於美國，但在2002年卻落居第三。觀察個別廠商績效，Qualcomm、MediaTek、Marvell、ICS、Lattice、Pmc-Sierra與DSP Group等廠商績效最好，其整體技術效率值為1。 2.Malmquist生產力指數(MPI)跨國比較的結果顯示，臺、美、加三國總要素生產力均呈現退步的情形，2001至2002年，臺、加總要素生產力呈現進步，美國呈現退步。就個別廠商而言，在2000年至2001年間有四家廠商總要素生產力進步，在2001至2002年年則有十五家廠商總要素生產力呈現進步的狀況。 3.Tobit迴歸分析的結論為：存貨週轉率inventory turnover對整體技術效率有顯著的正向影響；負債比率與平均收帳期間均對整體技術效率有顯著的負面影響。研發費用率、經營年限與整體技術效率呈現正向關係，至於每人配備率則呈現負相關。 / The total output value of Taiwanese IC design industry is the globally second following United States. It had become the domestic gazed industry since mid 90s. Therefore, this research studies the production efficiency of global IC design industry and chooses the firms which sales globally ranked top 30 as samples. Through DEA, this thesis analyzes the efficiency focused on different regions and individual firms from 2000 to 2002. And finally, the Tobit regression model is proposed to find out the factors that influenced performances of firms and it could be reference for the domestic firms to improve their production efficiency and productivity. The results display: 1. By comparison with regions, the DEA results display that U.S.A. United States has the highest overall technical efficiency(TE) value during 2000 to 2002. Taiwan ranked behind U.S. both in 2000 and 2001 but dropped to the 3rd position in 2003. Observing performances of individual firms, Qualcomm, MediaTek, Marvell, ICS, Lattice, Pmc-Sierra and DSP Group performed as the best and their efficiency value is 1. 2. By comparison with regions, Malmquist Productivity Index(MPI) results display that the U.S.., Taiwan and Canada showed their Total Factors Productivity (TFP) to degenerate from 2000 to 2001. However, Taiwan and Canada showed their progressive TFP, progress in TFP but U.S.A. had a regressive TFP from 2001 to 2002. For one individual firm, there were only 4 firms’ TFP being aggressive from 2000 to 2001 and there are 15 firms’ TFP aggressive from 2001 to 2002. 3. The result from running Tobit regression models display that Inventory Turnover has significant positive effect to TE; Debate Ratio and Average Collection Period have significant negative effect to TE; R&D Ratio and Incorporated Period have direct relation with TFE and Equipment Per Employee has negative relation with TE.

民國89年12月13日公布的「教育經費編列與管理法」，不但重新訂定保障政府教育經費額度的條文，並建構了迥異於以往的教育經費編列與分配模式，本研究之目的在檢證該法實施前後不同分配模式下，國民教育經費分配的公平性與適足性。 本研究由公共資源分配的理論出發，探討分配正義的議題，並涉及府際間財政收支與移轉支付體系，以及教育經費補助法制化、公式化的相關學理與實徵研究，以建構本研究之理論基礎，並據以發展立論各異的國民教育經費分配模式。 本研究依循 Berne與Stiefel（1984, 1999）及 Odden與Picus （2004）所發展之概念架構，取87至92會計年度間各相關之財政、教育年報及會議資料進行分析，所採用之衡量量數，計有McLoone指數、Verstegen指數、Gini係數、相關係數、斜率、調整關係量數，以及Odden-Picus適足性指數等；此外，本研究轉換美國各學區採行的補助公式，發展定額模式、基準模式、百分比均等化模式、保障稅基模式、統籌統支模式及結合模式等六個分配模式，以92會計年度的數據資料，檢證並比較不同分配模型間所能達成的公平性與適足性。 本研究主要發現如下： 一、法定模式所達成的政策效果，與美國基準方案相類似。 二、依法定模式編列之國民教育預算，與縣市實際需求仍有落差。 三、法定模式編列一般教育補助，尚能考量到地方的財政能力。 四、不同縣市間國民教育成本指數有相當的差距。 五、就不同年度間的比較而言，教育經費編列與管理法實施後各年度國民教育經費分配達成公平性及適足性的程度較高。 六、就不同模式間的比較而言，法定模式的國民教育經費分配與仍有改進的空間，以更符合公平性及適足性的原則。 依據研究發現，本研究提出對現行國民教育經費分配模式及相關研究之建議： 一、釐清國民教育經費基本需求的成分與單位額度。 二、法定模式的估算應擴大地方政府參與，以適時反應實際需求。 三、法定模式的估算應納入激勵縣市教育財稅努力的因素。 四、發展國民教育成本指數及並建立經費適足標準。 五、對國民教育經費分配的公平性與適足性，進行長期性的評估。 六、依據公平性與適足性原則，修正法定分配模式。 七、配合財政收支劃分法的修訂，調整法定分配模式。 / The Compilation and Administration of Education Expenditures Act (CAEEA) was signed into law by president on December 13, 2000. The new law was an attempt by the legislature to set a minimum guaranteed funding rate for educational budgeting, and to be more equitably and adequately distribute funds for education. The purpose of this study was to analyze how different funding models affect the equitable and adequate distribution of funds for compulsory education. The theoretical and empirical literatures were thus analyzed in this study, including the issues related to public resources allocation, distributive justice, intergovernmental fiscal relations, and school finance formulas. The conceptual framework developed by Berne and Stiefel (1984, 1999) and Odden and Picus (2004) served as the basis for defining and measuring the degree of equalization and adequacy of the financial system. The financial and educational data incorporated into this study have been taken from MOE's and MOF's annual reports and meeting records from 1998 to 2003. A series of measures were selected for assessing equity and adequacy in school finance, including the McLoone index, Verstegen index, Gini coefficient, correlation coefficient, slope, adjusted relationship measure, and the Odden-Picus adequacy index. In addition, in this study the school funding formulas that the various states continue to use to distribute education funds to local school districts in the USA were converted into six different funding models: a Flat Grants Model, Foundation Model, Percentage Equalization Model, Guaranteed Tax Base Model, Full Centralized Funding Model, and Tier Model. This was in order to determine the extent to which these models have improved the equity and adequacy of the system for funding compulsory education. The findings from the data analysis were as follows: (1) The CAEEA Funding Model and Foundation Model have the same impact, as far as policy is concerned, on fiscal equity and adequacy; (2) the results of budget preparation using the CAEEA Funding Model are not commensurate with the needs of counties and cities; (3) in the distribution of general education subsidies, some measure of local fiscal capabilities must be taken into consideration; (4) there is a noticeable difference in the cost of education indices for counties and cities; (5) The full funding and implementation of the CAEEA Funding Model has a positive impact on fiscal equity and adequacy; (6) it is necessary to reform the CAEEA Funding Model in order to satisfy the conditions of equity and adequacy. Based on the policy implications of these findings, it was recommended that: (1) The basic needs of education expenditures be formulated precisely in terms of composition and unit volume; (2) the CAEEA Funding Model be extended to involve local opinions, so as to take into consideration the local educational demands; (3) incentive factors be incorporated into the CAEEA Funding Model, in order to increase the local tax effort; (4) a cost of education index be developed and the adequacy level be identified; (5) a long-term assessment of the equity and adequacy of funding allocation be undertaken; (6) the CAEEA Funding Model be improved according to the principles of equity and adequacy; (7) the CAEEA Funding Model be adjusted to meet the revised provisions of the Act Governing the Allocation of Government Revenues and Expenditures.

本篇論文以分析師對未來公司盈餘預測為基礎，使用剩餘所得模型來對台灣股票市場做實證研究。在這個架構下，我們比較了剩餘所得模型評價法與各種不同的傳統評價法對台灣50成分股的估算表現。 本篇論文的實證發現，內含價值對股票價格比率(intrinsic value to price ratio)對台灣50成分股的預測，在中短期的投資期間內相較於傳統評價法，預測力最高。帳面價值對股票價格比率(book value to price ratio)則在長期的投資期間內，預測力顯著高於其他評價法。盈餘對價格比率(earnings to price ratio)預測力最低。而將所有評價法一同列入考慮時，則發現並沒有任何一種評價法能明顯主宰其他不同的評價法，各種評價方法在預測未來股市表現是互補的。 本篇論文進一步探討剩餘所得模型評價法對台灣50成分股的交易策略，發現以剩餘所得模型估算出的內含價值為標準來進行交易，能得到正報酬。而考慮會計保守原則的模型報酬率能顯著高於沒有將會計保守原則列入考慮的模型。 / We provide an empirical assessment of the residual income valuation model bases on analysts’ forecast data in Taiwan stock market. In this framework, we compare the performance of alternative estimates of intrinsic value with traditional valuation estimates for the component stocks of TSEC Taiwan 50 Index. According to our results, intrinsic value-to-price ratio is a reliable predictor of market returns over short-to-mid period and book-to-price ratios is a reliable predictor over long horizons. Unlike the two ratios, earnings-to-price ratio has little predictive power for returns in Taiwan stock market. Furthermore, intrinsic value-to-price ratio does not dominate traditional valuation but provide another perspective of stock valuation, and we can have a better forecast of future return of Taiwan stock market with consideration of all valuation estimates.

在投資無國界的全球化金融市場下，國際市場的開放與整合平台的建立，使國內投資人可選擇更多的金融工具。傳統的投資項目多為股票、債券或平衡型商品，在獲利狀況不甚理想下，便開始尋求其他國際的投資管道或是金融商品加入其資產配置中，希望獲取穩定的報酬下，又能降低所承擔的投資風險將投資所需承擔的風險減低。 近年避險基金的投資績效及資產規模成長搶眼，挾著法令寬鬆與靈活運用的操作策略，以及投資範疇廣與市場連動性低等特性，創造出日益壯大的規模。我國積極致力於金融改革，除了監督管理制度面的改善，對於新興金融工具的開放，也是國內投資環境必須跟進的方向。未來在台灣若能開放設立避險基金之前，國內投資人與監管機關所擔負職責，皆應該對此種金融工具有深入的認識。 本研究透過四個概念的架構，去評估避險基金加入投資組合後，是否可以幫助投資人達成降低風險以及增加報酬之目標，以及身為資產管理者如何將避險基金納入其資產配置決策等相關考量；對國內金融主管機關而言，避險基金的開放或是投資限制的放寬是否是正確的金融政策方向，才能配以完善的監理機制與法令規範，使國內投資大眾在投資理財工具上更加完備。 實證結果分析發現，在研究期間避險基金的確可以幫助投資組合之效益提升，但是加入總體情境時，其對投資組合的幫助卻不一致，只有在空頭期間的效果明顯。另外發現沒有避險基金相關之投資限制下的投資組合，其夏普指數高於有限制的投資組合；在避險基金限制放寬下，效率前緣往左上角移動，推論放寬避險基金限制該是正確的金融政策。最後，本研究也發現以機構投資法人而言，避險基金加入投資組合能幫助達到絕對報酬。 / Under the global financial market, which has broken the boundaries between nations, domestic investors now have more choices of financial instruments than they did before. Therefore, besides traditional domestic investment vehicles, such as stocks or mutual funds, domestic investors have started seeking other instruments to enhance their portfolio, pursuing better risk-return profile. In recent years, hedge fund’s performance and assets size have both grew impressively by capitalizing on deregulations and various trading strategies of its own. Besides the improvement in financial supervision system, deregulation and capitalizing on newly innovated financial instruments are also important to the reformation of Taiwan’s financial market. Before hedge funds can be legally raised in Taiwan, both domestic investors and market supervisors should equip themselves with adequate knowledge about this important instrument. By analyzing the four concepts in the third chapter, the research intends to evaluate whether investors can enjoy better risk-return profile by adding hedge funds into their portfolios. Also, the research objective is to provide suggestions to fund managers as they consider their assets allocation. Finally, we want to evaluate whether it is correct for Taiwan to open up to hedge funds, therefore the government can establish feasible supervision system to protect domestic investors’ rights. The research has found that hedge funds could indeed benefit the portfolio during the time period under consideration. However, hedge funds did not have significant effect on the portfolio as macroeconomic scenario was taken into consideration. In the scenario, hedge funds have significantly positive effect on the portfolio only under a bearing market. Furthermore, the research found that the portfolios with less limitation on hedge fund investment can enjoy better Sharp Ratios than those with striker limitation on hedge fund investment. Since the efficiency frontier moved upper left as we reduced the limitation on hedge fund investment in the research, we may conclude that an open-up to hedge funds should be the correct direction for our financial policy. At last, the research also found that institutional investors can get absolute return by adopting hedge funds in their portfolios.

本文主要針對匯率連動權益指數年金（Quanto Equity-Indexed Annuities）做評價，首先，先介紹三種不同權益指數年金（Equity-Indexed Annuities，EIA），分別為點對點（Point-to-Point）、高水檔（High Water Mark）和年度重設（Annual Ratchet），而年度重設又可分為複利年度重設（Compound Annual Ratchet）和簡單年度重設（Simple Annual Ratchet）。接著，我們介紹了單資產Quanto模型和多資產Quanto模型，並推導出單資產Quanto EIA的封閉解。由於多資產Quanto EIA無封閉解，本研究運用蒙地卡羅法來評價商品價格，並利用變異數縮減方法，使其模擬速度增快。我們使用了控制變異法（Control Variates）和反向變異法（Antithetic Variates），發現兩者同時使用的變異數縮減效果最佳。最後，本文透過調整參與率、上限率、下限率、利率和匯率與連結標的的相關係數來觀察成本的變化，提供建議予商品發行商。