相關研究指出土地面積與地價應該呈現非線性關係，隨著坵塊面積增加，土地價格將先以遞增的速率增加，之後再以遞減的速率增加，即基地面積規模不經濟（plattage）和基地面積規模經濟（plottage）現象。本研究以台南市土地交易案例進行驗證，以總價模型利用「移動式Chow Test」尋找結構變化點，據以分析其經濟結構是否具有顯著差異。實證結果顯示基地面積規模經濟(plottage)與基地面積規模不經濟(plattage)現象同時存在。 / According to some literature, there is a nonlinear relationship between the land area and the land value. Land value will enhance with an increasing pace as land area increase in the beginning. However, as land area keeps increasing, the land value will only enhance with a decreasing pace. Namely, the plattage phenomenon will follow the plottage phenomenon. Bases on the land transaction samples from Tainan city and the model with total price as dependent variable, this research searches the structural change of the land area using Chow Test sequence to analyze whether there is significant distinction in economic structure. The empirical results show the plattage phenomenon coexists with the plottage phenomenon.

本研究以雷射掃描儀作為掃描建築物之工具，採用三維球型覘標作為相鄰測站間之共軛覘標，探討雷射掃描儀對於不同尺寸之共軛覘標在不同掃描距離條件下之球心坐標精度；及利用檢校場之固定樁位，求得雷射掃描儀與各覘標之距離誤差量，並建立距離誤差量改正模式；最後，提出最佳之掃描方式。 本研究分別選定三個場地作為不同實驗區，先選定一處室內場，以三種尺寸之三維共軛球型覘標，規劃距離儀器原點5公尺至40公尺，以每5公尺之等距離方式分布，並依序掃描，以求得球心坐標精度；再選定台中國土測繪中心之距離標準基線場，以雷射掃描儀直接掃描三段距離，分別為5公尺、23公尺及31公尺，以求得掃描儀之距離誤差；最後選定一建物，以一般掃描及較佳掃描之方式各別進行建築物掃描，以分析兩者間之效益。 依成果顯示，於相同掃描距離下，三維共軛球型覘標尺寸越小，其球心坐標精度越差；相同三維共軛球型覘標之尺寸，其球心坐標精度將隨著掃描距離增加而越差。另外，透過距離檢校場，可得知該儀器之系統性誤差，並建立其距離誤差改正模式，用以改正所獲取之點雲之系統性誤差，以提升三維點雲模型之精度。 最後將較佳掃描之方式與一般掃描情況下，進行實際掃描並比較分析兩者之數據，依成果顯示，於一般掃描作業及較佳掃描作業情況下，直徑14.5公分之三維共軛球型覘標較直徑12公分之三維共軛球型覘標，皆節省25％之掃描時間。而兩者之點雲模型精度相仿，且皆符合建築掃描精度要求於1 cm內之精度，可以得知最佳掃描效益能夠縮短掃描作業時間，並提升點雲模型之精度。 / This research uses laser scanner as the scanning tool, and 3D sphere marker as the conjugated marker between neighborhood stations, to investigate the accuracy of sphere center coordinates of different-sized 3D sphere markers at different scanning distances; calculate the distance errors between laser scanner and every marker with the fixed survey stations in the calibration field and establish distance error correction formula. At last, propose the best way to scan buildings according to the experiment results. Three different fields are selected as experiment areas. First, choose an indoor field, and scan three different-sized conjugated 3D sphere markers. Every conjugated marker is scanned at distances of 5 to 40 m at an interval of 5 m. Second, choose the standard baseline field of National Land Surveying and Mapping Center in Taichung as the experiment area, and use laser scanner to measure the distances of 5, 23 and 31 m to calculate scanning distance errors. At last, choose a building as scanning target, scan it in general way and efficient way respectively, and analyze the differences between the two methods. According to experiment results, the smaller the conjugated 3D sphere marker is, the worse the accuracy of sphere center coordinate will be at the same scanning distance; as the scanning distance gets longer, the accuracy of sphere center coordinate will decrease with the same size conjugated 3D sphere marker. On the other hand, the systematic error of the instrument can be known through the distance calibration field. With a known systematic error, a distance correction formula is established to correct the systematic error of the point cloud, and hence improve the accuracy of 3D point cloud model. Eventually, compare and analyze the differences of the results getting by the most efficient way and the general way of scanning. The results show that both scanning methods save 25% scanning time using 14.5-cm-diameter conjugated 3D sphere marker compare to using 12-cm-diameter conjugated 3D sphere marker. And the data represent that the point cloud models in the two situations have similar accuracy, and the accuracy of each model is better than 1 cm, which means they both meet the precision requirement of building scanning. Consequently, the most efficient way of scanning mentioned in this research can shorten the time of scanning work and improve the accuracy of point cloud model.

論文摘要 本文主要是檢定內生成長模型之下，政府的國防以及教育支出行為與經濟成長的關係。我們發覺以往的文獻探討，對於教育對經濟成長關係的探討大多著重在人力資本對經濟成長之影響，而多持正面的看法；學者對國防支出有持正面；亦有持負面之看法。根據本文所做的實證檢定則發現，長期之下，我們所欲檢定之變數，國民所得、教育支出以及國防支出皆具有單根之關係，顯示三個數列在長期之下，不具有穩定之狀態；亦即是呈現一個隨機漫步的情形，此正和我國經濟成長、國防支出、教育支出不斷增加的事實相吻合。而教育支出和國民所得亦有具有共整合的關係存在，這顯示了在長期之下，國民所得和教育支出的一階差分會呈一穩定的線性關係，即長期之下，國民所得和教育支出會有相同成長趨勢，而國民所得和國防支出間，因為國防預算支出的比例不斷降低，所以我們無法得出該支出與國民所得有共整合關係，顯示國民所得和國防支出長期下並無相同的成長趨勢。 而就因果關係檢定之結果來看，我們發現，國民所得對教育支出有一領先的關係，解釋了長期之下，國民所得的資訊可以用來預測教育支出成長的事實，同時也可以說明我國符合華格納法則中所提到之現象。 而就國防支出和國民所得而言，本文得出國民所得和國防支出存在雙向因果關係。當以國民所得作為被解釋變數時，可能因國防支出使用的效率，或者國防的支出確實提高有效需求並促進現代化，因而使國防支出對國民所得有顯著之影響。至於國民所得對國防支出的影響方面，我們就國防支出需求面來看國防預算的制定，是必須考慮所得的經濟因素。且依據華格納法則，隨著我國國民所得不斷增加，對於政府國防支出的需求，亦會相對提升。因此，吾人可以說國民所得增加會影響國防支出。 　目　　　　錄 第一章 緒論……………………………………………… 1 第一節 經濟成長與政府支出……………………….. 1 第二節 研究方向……………………………………….. 5 第三節 本文架構……………………………………….. 6 第二章 相關探討及文獻回顧…………………………… 8 第一節 相關公共支出對經濟成長的文獻回顧……… 8 第二節 教育投資、支出及國防支出對經濟成長之影響… 11 第三節 國民所得對政府支出的影響………………… 23 第三章 計量方法………………………………………….. 29 第一節 單根檢定………………………………………… 29 第二節 共整合檢定………………………………………... 32 第三節 修正誤差模型…………………………………….. 34 第四節 因果關係檢定………………………………… 36 第四章 模型設定及實證結果…………………… . 41 第一節 模型的設定…………………………………… 41 第二節 單根和共整合檢定…………………………… . 42 第三節 修正誤差及因果檢定………………………….…. 47 第四節 實證結果之探討…………………………………. 55 第五章 結論與建議……………………………………… . 63 第一節 本文結論……………………………………….… 63 第二節 本文之建議…………………………………….…. 65 參考文獻……………………………………………………. 70 / We are going to dicuss the long-run relationship between income and govnernment's education and national defense expenditure in Taiwan.We start at testing wheather income ,education expenditure ,and national defense have unit or not. We find all the series have the characteristic of unit root.It shows that they are not stationary.Then we use Granger's cointegration test,and see that the series of income and education got the relationship of cointegration,instead that of income and national defense. Finally,we test long- run relationship by Granger causality.Due to the existence of cointegration between income and education expenditure,we can use two-steps OLS to test whether there exist Granger causality between them,and we find income will affect education expenditure ,however education expenditure will not affect income.And we use F test to find the Granger causality between income and nation defenseand we get the conclusion that there exists a bilateral Granger causality.It means that they will affect each other.

在國內外實證文獻中，已有許多學者研究市場過度反應的現象，但由採取的研究方法不盡相同，故結論也有所差異．本研究是希望能對台灣股市的個別股票報酬率作一較完整的檢視，先瞭解股票報酬率前後期的相關情形，試圖找出一些一致性，再提出股市交易的策略，並比較策略的獲利性。 將樣本分成對稱與不對稱的形成期及檢定期，採Spearman等級相關係數法先對台灣股市同一股票的報酬率在不同期間（形成期及檢定期）的表現是否有相關作一檢視，接著檢定此相關係數時間序列是否具有隨機的特質，而後將證券交易稅及手續費納入考慮後，比較三種投資策略－買入持有輸家、中間、贏家的獲利性、風險及績效表現。 本文的實證結果：由單位風險報酬率來看，投資股市應以買入有長期的策略才會有較好的績效表現，而買入持有短期的績效是最差的。以不同的樣本期間討論台灣股市是否有價格反彈，結果並不相同。在1980年-1998年的Spearman等級相關係數多為正值，表示市場在288天以下多沒有價格反彈，且以連檢定的結果多為顯著，以Jensen α檢定之，贏家投資策略能獲得超額報酬。在1990年-1998年不論是重覆取樣、未重覆取樣，Spearman等級相關係數，多為負值，表示市場應存有價格反彈的現象，且以連檢定的結果多為顯著，但以Jensen α檢定之，輸家卻無法獲得超額報酬。可能是因為考慮了交易稅與手續費，而影響了投資策略的獲利性。 / There have been many articles discussing overreaction. Because of the difference of methods and samples, the conclusions are different. This thesis tries to make a more complete examination of Taiwan Stock Market. We divide sample period to be formation period and test period which are symmetric and asymmetric. Besides that, we adopt overlapping and nonoverlapping sampling. The sample period is 1980 January 1 to 1998 January 22. Three investment strategies are buying and holding loser portfolio、middle portfolio and winner portfolio. We use Spearman rank correlation to discuss whether the return of Taiwan Stock Market has correlation between formation period and test period. Then we adopt one of nonparameter statitics analysis－run test to examine whether the time series of Spearman rank correlation is a random walk. Following are our summaries： 1.The longer period we hold the stock,the better return we acquire. 2.In the first sample (1980 Jan 1 to 1998 Jan 22), Spearman rank correlation. is almost positive, and the hypothesis of run test is significant. We imply buying and holding the winner portfolio is the best strategy. We can prove this by using Jense α. In this case, buying and holding winner can get excess return. 3.In the second sample(1990 Nov 1 to 1998 Jan 22), Spearman rank correlaion is almost negative, and the hypothesis of run test is signficant. We imply buying and holding the loser portfolio is the best strategy. But we can not prove the by using Jense α. As we can not acqure excess return by buying and holding loser portfolio.

傳統上，判定一種學名藥(generic drug)與原廠藥(innovator drug)是否具有生體相等性所常用的統計方法為：比較兩種藥物的生體可用相對值(relative bioavailability)的母體平均數是否相等，此即所謂的平均生體相等性(average bioequivalence)。然而就兩種藥物可互用的觀點而言，似乎更需要考慮的是每位受測個體在服用藥物後，不同藥物在個體內反應的差異性，因此 Anderson and Hauck (1990)提出個體生體相等性(individual bioequivalence)的觀點。 本文採 Schall (1995)所建議的判定準則來作為評估一種學名藥與原廠藥是否具有個體生體相等性的依據。內容重點為透過模擬(simulation)實驗的方式，對判定藥物為個體生體相等性的檢定力(power)作一評比，研究的項目有：(1)檢定力在不同交叉實驗設計(crossover design)下表現的異同；(2)檢定力在不同參數組合情況下表現的趨勢；(3)樣本數(sample size)對檢定力的影響。 / Conventionally, that a generic drug and an innovator drug are regarded as having the same treatment effects is based on the concept of average bioequivalence,i.e., that average responses between individuals on the two formulations are similar. Anderson and Hauck (1990) argued that it was not sufficient to expect that an individual patient would response similarly to the two formulations. The thought has received a lot of attention lately, and quite a few methods have been proposed to deal with the issue of the individual bioequivalence. According to the "unified" approach proposes by Schall (1995), a simulation study on power to declare bioequivalence and coverage probability of confidence intervals is carried out here to compare their performance under different experimental designs.

The use of transformation can usually simplify the analysis of data, especiallywhen the original observations deviate from the underlying assumption of linearmodel. Box-Cox transformation receives much more attention than others. Inthis dissertation, we will review the theory about the estimation, hypotheses test on transformation parameter and about the sensitivity of the linear model parameters. Monte Carlo simulation is used to study the performance of the transformation. We also display whether Box-Cox transformation makes the transformed observations satisfy the assumption of linear model actually.

在處理列聯表(Contingency table)資料時，一般我們常用卡方適合度檢定(chi-squared goodess-of-fit test)來判定模式配適的好壞。如果這個檢定是顯著的，則意謂著配適的模式並不恰當，我們則希望進一步探討可能的原因何在。這其中的一個可能原因是資料中存在所謂的離群細格(outlying cell)，這些細格的觀測次數和其他細格的觀測次數呈現某種不一致的現象。 　　在以往的文獻中，離群細格的偵測，通常藉由不同定義的殘差(residual)作為工具，進而衍生出各種不同的偵測方法。只是，這些探討基本上僅局限於二維列聯表的情形，對於高維度的列聯表，並沒有作更進一步的詮釋。Brown (1974)提出一個逐步偵測的方法，可依序找出所有可能的離群細格，直到近似獨立(quasi-independence)的模式假設不再顯著為止。但是我們認為他所引介的這個方法所牽涉的計算程序似乎過於繁複，因此藉由簡化修改計算過程，我們提供了另一種離群細格偵測的方法。依據模擬實驗的結果發現，本文所介紹的方法與Brown的方法作比較只有過之而無不及。此外我們也探討了應用此種方法到三維列聯表的可行性和可能遭遇到的困難。 / Chi-squared goodness-of-fit tests are usually employed to test whether a model fits a contingency table well. When the test is significant, we would then like to identify the sources that cause significance. The existence of outlying cells that contribute heavily to the test statistic may be one of the reasons. 　　Brown (1974) offered a stepwise criteria for detecting outlying cells in two-way con-tingency tables. In attempt to simplify the lengthy calculations that are required in Brown's method, we suggest an alternative procedure in this study. Based on simulation results, we find that the procedure performs reasonably well, it even outperforms Brown's method on several occasions. In addition, some extensions and issues regarding three-way contingency tables are also addressed.

賽局理論(Game Theory)大多假設理性決策，單一回合賽局通常可由理論證明均衡(Equilibrium)或是最佳決策，然而如果賽局重複進行，不見得只存在單一均衡，光從理論推導可能無法找到所有均衡。以囚犯困境(Prisoner Dilemma)為例，理論均衡為不合作，若重複的賽局中存有互利關係，不合作可能不是最佳選擇。近年來，經濟學家藉由和統計實驗設計類似的賽局實驗(Game Experiment)，探討賽局在理論與實際間的差異，並以學習模型(Learning Model)描述參賽者的決策及行為，但學習模型的優劣大多依賴誤差大小判定，但誤差分析結果可能與資料有關(Data Dependent)。有鑑於學習模型在模型選取上的不足，本文引進統計分析的模型選取及殘差檢定，以實證資料、配合電腦模擬評估學習模型。 本文使用的實證資料，屬於囚犯困境的重複賽局(Repeated Game)，包括四種不同的實驗設定，參加賽局實驗者（或是「玩家」）為政治大學大學部學生；比較學習模型有四種：增強學習模型(Reinforcement Learning model)、延伸的增強學習模型(Extend Reinforcement Learning Model)、信念學習模型(Belief Learning Model)、加權經驗吸引模型(Experience-Weighted Attraction Model)。實證及模擬分析發現，增強學習模型較適合用於描述囚犯困境資料，無論是較小的誤差或是適合度分析，增強學習模型都有較佳的結果；另外，也發現玩家在不同實驗設定中的反應並不一致，將玩家分類後會有較佳的結果。 / In game theory, the optimal strategy (or equilibrium) of one-shot games usually can be solved theoretically. But, the optimal strategies of repeated games are likely not unique and are more difficult to find. For example, the defection is the optimal decision for the one-shot Prisoner Dilemma (PD) game. But for the repeated PD game, if the players can benefit from cooperation between rounds then the defection won’t be the only optimal rule. In recent years, economists design game experiments to explore the behavior in repeated games and use the learning models to evaluate the player’s choices. Most of the evaluation criteria are based on the estimation and prediction errors, but the results are likely to be data dependent. In this study, we adapt the model selection process in regression analysis and apply the idea to evaluate learning models. We use empirical data, together with Monte Carlo simulation, to demonstrate the evaluation process. The empirical data used are repeated PD game, including four different experimental settings, and the players of the game are from National Chengchi University in Taiwan. Also, we consider four learning models: Reinforcement learning (RL) model, Extend Reinforcement learning (ERL) model, Belief Learning (BL) model, and Experience-weighted attraction (EWA) model. We found that the RL model is more appropriate to describe the PD data. In addition, the behaviors of players in a group can be quite different and separating the players into different sets can reduce the estimation errors.

製程能力指標（process capability index）常被用來評量製程能力的高低。它結合規格及製程變異於一指標，便利使用者易於了解指標的意義。 若吾人主張一製程能力大於某一定值，當同時控制型I及型II過誤，這時，臨界值（critical value）及樣本大小n即可決定。若同時存在有數個大於某一定值的製造過程，吾人欲挑選具有最大製程能力的製程，這時，我們提出一個客觀的準則來加以選擇。 本篇論文的特色是以解析法來決定臨界值及樣本大小n，並於挑選最大的製程能力時能提出一個客觀的挑選準則。 研究中發現：雖然逼近常用的統計上查表值時有些誤差，但誤差不大。故本文討論的過程中所用的方法及結論，適用於線上作業。

本研究係探討匯率與總體經濟之關聯性，以中國大陸1996第一季至 2013年第一季之總體經濟變數，共計樣本數為69筆季資料。先以1996第一季至 2013年第一季全期數據進行實證分析。再以2005年7月為分界點，分為1996年第一季至2005年第二季及2005年第三季至2013年第一季數據分別進行實證分析。 本論文就REER、GDP、CPI、M2、UNEMP、CHIBOR、FDI、OPEN等總體經濟變數，以單根檢定及建構向量自我迴歸模型進行實證分析，並以Granger因果關係檢定、衝擊反應分析及預測誤差變異數分解，以了解匯率與總體經濟相互間之關係。 實證結果發現，中國大陸匯率與總體經濟間的關係自2005年7月21日匯率改革後逐漸增強，但整體言之匯率與總體經濟間之傳導能力仍然不大，人民幣匯率的變動主要受其自身影響較多，受總體經濟變數的相互影響較小，顯示其外匯市場的開放程度與一個真正開放的經濟體還是有些許差距。 / This research examines the correlation between foreign exchange rates and macroeconomics by using the data of economic variables of China from the 1st quarter of 1996 to the 1st quarter of 2013. The sample contains 69 quarterly data during the entire period, while the reform of Chinese exchange rate on 21st July 2005 is a crucial division. In order to find the correlation between foreign exchange rates and macroeconomics, the research examines the economic variables such as REER, GDP, CPI, M2, UNEMP, CHIBOR, FDI, and OPEN by using unit root test, vector autoregression model, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition impulse response function. The result of the tests indicates that after the reform of Chinese exchange rate on 21st July 2005, the correlation between exchange rates and macroeconomics has been enhanced, but the connection is not prominent. In other words, the fluctuation of Renminbi is mainly affected by the nation’s policy instead of its macroeconomic factors. Hence, the openness of the Chinese foreign exchange market is still distant from a real open economy.