企業為了不斷成長並追求永續經營，並因應快速變化的外在環境與日趨激烈的國際競爭，需不斷地加強或擴增員工的知識、技術及能力，因而建立短期與長期性的人才培育之訓練有其重要性。 國際級工程案競爭越形激烈，尤其有韓國工程公司競爭性策略搶標及大陸崛起積極跨入國際市場之隱憂，加上客戶在維持高品質及持續壓縮工期之需求，個案公司(簡稱以下A公司)成長及獲利空間均受到嚴苛的挑戰。為提昇在國際上競爭力，A公司設計部必須面對培植具豐富工程經驗及國際級之設計人才問題。而目前面臨5年以下經驗工程師達人數比例佔42%以上(即年輕工程師比例偏高) ，7~15年經驗工程師人數佔10%相對偏低之M型人力結構及未來幾年面臨退休潮，如何加速培育年輕工程師須具備世界級的專業技術及落實資深工程師經驗傳承，達成各職級人力結構合理化，提升設計品質，為A公司當務之急。 為能瞭解A公司現行各項教育訓練之效益，揭示員工對A公司教育訓練方式的意見或需求，本研究採用問卷調查並分為五大類，第一，專業技術訓練的同意度與重要度；第二，經驗傳承的同意度與重要度；第三，跨部門訓練的同意度；第四，管理訓練的同意度；第五，英文能力方面的同意度。以上各問項再與人口統計變數做交叉分析，尋求出目前教育訓練之成效如何及提出改善建議。 其中專業技術訓練與經驗傳承再將每個同意度和重要性的問項平均後做出二維分布圖(IPA分析圖)，利用同意度和重要性整體的平均切割分成四個區域，即優越區、過剩區、優先改進區及建議改進區，尤其問項落在優先改進區、建議改進區及過剩區時，則進一步進行原因分析及提出改善建議。 對跨部門訓練、管理課程與英文能力等問項，則以同意度與人口統計交叉分析結果，根據其滿意度程度及卡方檢定(Chi-Square Test)結果有統計上顯著差異關係之受訪者基本資料提出改善建議。 / Enterprises need to continuously enhance knowledge, skills, and abilities of their employees for sustainable business development and adapting to rapid changing environment as well as fierce international competition. The importance of developing short-term and long-term talent training programs is thus recognized. Under some unfavorable conditions, which include keen competition in global EPC (engineering, procurement and construction) industry, Korean engineering companies’ strategic bidding, mainland China contending in international markets, clients’ request for quality and compressed work schedule at the same time, etc…, the case company (designated as company A) is facing severe challenges in achieving profitable growth. The company A must cope with the problem of cultivating world-class and experienced talent to promote its competitiveness in international markets. It’s the company A’s top priority to tackle the engineering talent gap at the range of seniority between 7 to 15 years (10%) whereas the young engineers with less than 5 years of experience account for more than 42% of its talent pool and engineers will retire that are increased in near future year. It’s important for the company A to professionalize young engineers, facilitate knowledge transferring, and optimize its staffing structure. A questionnaire survey research was undertaken to understand the effectiveness of the training programs and reveal the employees’ opinion or request on the training activities of the company A. The questionnaire variables were classified into five categories: 1. degree of agreement and importance of professional skills training; 2. degree of agreement and importance of intergenerational transfer of experience; 3. degree of agreement on cross-disciplinary training; 4. degree of agreement on management training; 5. degree of agreement on English competency requirements. Demographic variables were used to cross analyze the survey result. The analysis was also used to find the causes of training deficiency and to explore improvement ideas. The survey results of questionnaire variables in the first two categories, degree of agreement and importance of professional skills training and intergenerational transfer of experiencewere, were used to develop two-dimensional scatter diagrams (IPA matrices). The mean ratings of degree of agreement and importance were plotted in a two-dimensional grid to produce a four-quadrant matrix that identifies areas of Keep Up the Good Work, Possible Overkill, Concentrate Here, and Low Priority. Causes and improvement plans were further investigated for variables situate in the quadrant Concentrate Here, Low Priority, and Possible Overkill. For the survey results of questionnaire variables in the other three categories, degree of agreement on cross-disciplinary training, management training and English competency requirements, cross tabulation analyses using demographic variables were performed. According improvement plans were proposed for the respondent demographics when statistically significant differences between the degree of satisfaction and chi-square test result were observed.

本研究主要是希望針對採市場資訊的Merton Model、利用財務比率為變數的Logistic Model及混合用市場資訊及財務比率資訊的Hybrid Model做區別力的比較；且觀察出考慮提前違約是否能增加區別效力。進而將模型細分為: （一）以Merton Model為基礎所估出的風險中立下違約機率及客觀違約機率，及尚有為了修正Merton Model公司只會在負債到期日時才發生違約的基本假設的首次通過模型。 （二）採用Altman Z-Score所採用的五個判定公司的財務比率作為Logistic Model的基本變數。 （三）模型五、六、七除了利用Altman Z-Score所採用的五個判定公司的財務比率作為Logistic Model的基本變數。尚將風險中立下違約機率、客觀違約機率及首次通過模型違約機率分別當作的另一個解釋因子，形成同時結合市場資訊及財務資訊的Hybrid Model。 同時，採用了判別隨機性的Chi-Square Test、解釋力的Pesudo R2、區別力的S-K Test及ROC曲線、正確性的Brier Scores，此五個指標作為做為樣本內及樣本外模型的驗證方法。 經由驗證，得到的結論是同時包含市場資訊及財務資訊的模型較佳，且有考慮公司於負債到期日前就發生違約的因素對預警模型的判別效力有提高的正向作用。

自行車一詞儼然成為綠色環保的代名詞之一，台灣自行車業過去在國際間，被認定為品質粗糙的產品，在經過多年努力的情況下，台灣自行車業不斷的備受肯定，隨著近年全球暖化議題、全球性健康概念、油價飆漲、金融海嘯爆發等，諸多原因造成自行車從不被看好的代步工具，演變到現在成為休閒運動工具的轉變，其中；台灣自行車2008年的金融海嘯中，相較於其他傳統產業，不論是出口產值或是股價不降反漲，大舉逆勢成長，其中巨大(Giant)、美利達(Merida)、愛地雅(Ideal)，成車製造商，近年來分別占出口前三大。 所以本研究要探討，金融海嘯爆發的前後，對台灣自行車業帶來的影響，研究資料選定為2000年1月至2013年12月間的巨大股價(9921)、美利達股價(9914)、愛地雅股價(8933)、台灣股價加權指數(TWII)、原油價格、工業生產指數的月資料，共168筆。透過單根檢定檢測資料是否為定態，利用共整合檢定確定是否含有至少一組解，搭配向量誤差修正模型檢測變數間的長短其關係，在利用複迴歸模型檢測。 研究結果顯示，巨大、美利達、愛地雅和台灣加權股價指數具有顯著關係，由於台灣自行車屬於出口導向以及中高價位產品，故全球景氣對台灣自行車業深具影響。其中，巨大和美利達除了ODM外，亦有自有品牌在全球銷售，愛地雅定位專業ODM專業代工廠，前者發展不同市場。 / The word "bicycle" has become one of the pronouns of environmental protection. In the past, Taiwan bicycling industry was treated as low-quality products internationally. With long-time effort, Taiwan bicycling industry was highly appreciated. Recently, global warming issue, cosmopolitan health sense, dramatically increased oil price, the eruption of financial crisis, and many reasons lead the bicycles have not positively evaluated as means of transportation. Now, it becomes the outdoor recreation mean. Comparing Taiwan bicycling industry with other traditional industry, it doesn't fall down but highly increase no matter export value or stock price. The manufacturer of Giant, Merida, and Ideal are the top 3 of export recently. So this study want to explore the things happened before and after the outbreak of the financial crisis that affects bicycle industry in Taiwan, research data for selected between January 2000 and December 2013, relationship between the Giant(9921) shares, Merida (9914) shares, Ideal(8933) shares, TWII, the price of crude oil, industrial production index. Through the Unit Root Test to test whether the data is the steady state or not. By using cointegration test to make sure whether contains at least one group of solutions and vector error correction model to detect the length of the relationship between variables, and using the multiple regression model to test. Results of the research shows that Giant, Merida, Ideal has significant relationship with TWII, because Taiwan bicycle are export-oriented and high price products, so the global boom has profound influence to Taiwan bicycle industry, among them, the Giant and Merida except the ODM, have their own brands in global sales, Ideal professional locate, ODM professional contract, the former develops different markets. / 摘要 I Abstract II 謝辭 III 目錄 IV 圖目錄 VI 表目錄 VII 第一章　緒論 1 第一節　研究動機 1 第二節　研究目的 3 第三節　巨大機械工業股份有限公司簡介 4 第四節　美利達工業股份有限公司簡介 5 第五節　愛地雅工業股份有限公司簡介 6 第六節　研究架構 7 第二章　文獻回顧 9 第一節　國內相關文獻 9 第二節　國外相關文獻 11 第三節　國內外文獻一覽表 12 第三章　研究方法 20 第一節　單根檢定 20 第二節　共整合檢定 22 第三節　向量誤差修正模型(VECM) 24 第四節　迴歸分析 24 第四章　實證分析 26 第一節　資料來源與處理 26 第二節　敘述統計 31 第三節　單根檢定 32 第四節　共整合檢定 33 第五節　向量誤差修正模型(VECM) 33 第六節　複迴歸模型 35 第五章　結果分析與建議 38 第一節　結果分析 38 第二節　建議 39 參考文獻 40 附錄一　巨大工業股份有限公司沿革 43 附錄二　美利達股份有限公司沿革 47 附錄三　愛地雅股份有限公司沿革 57 圖目錄 圖1-6 研究架構 8 圖4-1-1 台灣自行車業總出口產值(百萬元，美金) 27 圖4-1-2 台灣股價大盤指數(TWII，當日收盤價) 27 圖4-1-3 巨大股價(9921，當日收盤價) 28 圖4-1-4 美利達股價(9914，當日收盤價) 28 圖4-1-5 愛地雅股價(8933，當日收盤價) 29 圖4-1-6 國際原油價格(西德州，美元) 29 圖4-1-7 台灣工業生產指數 30 表目錄 表1-3 巨大公司基本資料 4 表1-4 美利達公司基本資料 5 表1-5 愛地雅公司基本資料 6 表2-3 國內外相關文獻整理 12 表4-1 資料來源一覽表 26 表4-3-1 ADF 單根檢定 32 表4-3-2 單根檢定-一階差分 32 表4-4-1 共整合檢定 33 表4-5-1 Giant & Merida　向量誤差修正模型 34 表4-5-2 Giant & Ideal　向量誤差修正模型 34 表4-5-3 Merida & Ideal　向量誤差修正模型 34 表4-6-1 自行車產業與景氣循環對巨大股價之影響 37 表4-6-2 自行車產業與景氣循環對美利達股價之影響 37 表4-6-3 自行車產業與景氣循環對愛地雅股價之影響 37

過去許多學術文獻針對租稅優惠吸引投資之效果進行實證分析，但實證結論並不一致。我國自1950年即開始實施一連串的租稅獎勵政策，時至今日，租稅減免仍是我國政府推動重大經濟政策慣用的誘因手段。為探討了解臺灣實施租稅優惠措施對投資變化之影響，本研究針對我國自民國50年代後期以來涉及租稅減免之相關法令進行整理，另為了充分量化這些租稅優惠措施，則參考國外相關實證文獻作法，建構了兩項租稅誘因指標作為虛擬變數，來追蹤自民國61年以來我國不同階段之減免稅狀態，並作為虛擬變數納入後續實證模型分析。 本研究利用相關變數之時間序列資料來探討租稅優惠對我國外人直接投資與國內私人投資之互動變化關係。研究步驟有三，首先，針對個別變數進行單根檢定，藉以確認變數的屬性，了解時間序列資料是否為衡定後，再利用Johansen共整合檢定法來估計和檢定多個變數，確認各變數間是否存在共整合關係後，以誤差修正模型來說明各變數間關係與整個變數脫離均衡關係後之動態調整情形。 實證結果顯示，就長期趨勢而言，我國實施之租稅優惠措施對吸引外人直接投資呈現負向且顯著之不良影響，另長期而言，租稅優惠誘因對刺激我國國內投資之變化確有顯著且正面助益，但影響效果之幅度不大。因此，本研究建議政府與其提供效果不明確之租稅誘因，不如致力於針對國家自身不完善的基礎建設或不穩定的總體經濟環境進行改善。 / Tax incentives have been in existence in Taiwan since 1950, and they are still very much on the agenda of the government. There is no agreement about the efficacy of incentives. Indeed there have been doubts about whether incentives have any effect on the economy since the 1950s. This has made some economists wonder why incentives are so popular despite the fact that their effects are either slight or unknow. This study conducts an empirical investigation of the impact of tax incentives on investment in Taiwan. We constructed two indexs of tax incentives which track the different types of incentives embarked upon by the government, and these indexes are then included in both foreign direct investment and private investment equations. Our testing procedure involves three steps. The first step involves tasting for the properties of the variables by conducting unit root teste. The second step involves testing for the long-run relationship between the variables using Johansen cointegration tests. And the third step involves estimating the long-run parameters and associated loading factors. The empirical results shows a significant negative impact of tax incentives on FDI, and a significant positive impact of tax incentives on private investment but the impact is slight. We suggest that rather than focusing on tax incentives, the country should concentrate on removing the factors that discourage investors such as poor infrastructural and institutions or macroeconomic instability.

本文之目的在於分析台灣與中國雙邊貿易之主要決定因素，並深入探討造成台灣對中國長期出現大量順差的主要原因。本文之實證模型與過去文獻主要差異在於分別就進出口供給與需求建立聯立方程式，推導成縮減式，分析進出口供需的相互影響。在台灣出口供給方面，本文考慮了國內投入、進口中間投入、台灣外人直接投資(FDI)及研發創新等因素。在台灣進口需求方面，除了考慮實質所得、雙邊匯率，本文也考慮了第三國匯率及雙向FDI之影響。 本文實證分析採用自1996年1月至2009年12月期間月資料。實證結果顯示雙邊實質所得、台灣對中國直接投資與台灣研發創新的確皆造成台灣對中國進出口之增加。然而，各國對台灣直接投資，卻造成台灣對中國進出口的減少。至於實質匯率的結果，在台灣對中國之出口方面，當新台幣相對於人民幣貶值，確實造成對中國出口增加。在中國市場，第三國價格相對中國價格上揚，造成台灣對中國出口有負向影響，此顯示台灣出口財與第三國出口財為互補關係。在台灣自中國之進口方面，當新台幣相對於人民幣貶值，的確造成自中國進口減少。在台灣市場，第三國價格相對於台灣價格上揚，造成台灣自中國進口有正向影響，表中國出口財與第三國出口財為替代關係。此外，本文發現，進口中間投入的相對價格上揚，將造成台灣自中國進口減少。 總而言之，本文研究結果顯示，除了實質所得以及雙邊匯率之外，第三國匯率、雙向FDI以及研發在兩岸進出口貿易上也扮演相當重要角色。此結果有助於瞭解台灣對中國持續順差之背後原因。 / The objective of this study is to analyze the main determinants of bilateral trade across the Taiwan Straits with a view toward exploring the causes of the Taiwan’s persistent large trade surplus with China. Our empirical model differs from most previous studies in the following aspects: we construct a system of equations to examine the demand-supply relationship ; on the supply side, the effects of inward FDI, the cost of intermediate imports on Taiwan’s production and R&D innovation are considered ; on the demand side, in additional to bilateral real exchange rates and real income, this paper also considers the indirect effects of exchange rate of third countries and bilateral FDI. The data covering January, 1996 to December, 2009 are used in our empirical analysis. The empirical evidence indicates that the bilateral real income, Taiwan’s real direct investment to China and R&D innovation have positive effects on Taiwan’s exports towards and imports from China, however, the inward FDI to Taiwan presents negative effects. As for real exchange rate, it appears that Taiwan’s export to China would increase along with the real depreciation of the NTD against the RMB. In addition, the rising relative price of the third country against the price of China would result in a negative effect of Taiwan’s export to China, representing that the goods of Taiwan and the third country are complements. On the other hand, Taiwan’s import from China would decrease along with the real depreciation of the NTD against the RMB. In addition, the rising relative price of the third country against the price of Taiwan would bring about a positive effect of Taiwan’s import from China. This reveals that the goods of China and the third country are substitutes. Moreover, a negative effect on the import of Taiwan from China appears when the cost of intermediate imports of Taiwan increases. In sum, this study illustrates that, in addition to real income and bilateral exchange rates, the exchange rates of third countries, FDI inflows and outflows and innovation have also played an important role in determining bilateral trade across the Taiwan Straits. It will help understand the driving forces behind Taiwan’s persistent trade surplus against China.

本研究之主要研究目的在於探討我國公立中小學教師檢定與聘任制度之現況、相關問題及具體改進建議，包含教師檢定與教師証相關問題、甄聘介聘教師相關問題以及教師聘約相關問題三個部分。為達成上述目的，研究者採用文獻分析法、問卷調查法以及訪談法；首先分析教師檢定與聘任制度之理論基礎，以了解教師檢定與聘任制度之意義、功能與理想制度該如何運作；接著探討美國公立中小學教師檢定聘任制度可供我國借鏡與參考之作法；接著編製『國民中小學教師檢定與聘任制度運作成效與改進途徑之問卷』，針對臺北縣市國民中小學教育行政人員、兼行政之教師、未兼行政之教師、人事、校長及家長會委員進行調查研究；然後依問卷回收後之分析結果，選取專長為檢定聘任制度的學者、教育行政界之專家、學校行政界之專家進行訪談。最後綜合研究結果，建議我國公立中小學教師檢定與聘任制度可行之改進途徑，以提供相關單位決策及後續之研究。 本研究之問卷調查對象為臺北縣市之公立中小學教育人員以及教育局行政人員，樣本之取得採分層抽樣而來，共抽取47所學校與2所教育局，574位教育人員，回收有效樣本為490份，問卷資料處理採用SPSS10.0版進行統計分析；訪談資料處理則是逐題將專家學者之意見條列歸納。 據此，研究者係將本研究之調查結果發現與文獻探討發現作成結論如下： 一、教師檢定與教師証相關問題方面 （一）我國現行初檢與複檢制度不具篩選功能，形同虛設。 （二）現行實習制度問題重重，應取消現行制度，改為職前培育課程之一部分。 （三）應將現行教師檢定制度加入檢定考試。 （四）應儘速建立教師証撤回機制以保障學生受教權。 （五）應儘速建立教師証換証機制以成為教師專業化之基礎。 二、甄聘、介聘教師相關問題 （一）教師甄選與介聘之辦理方式以縣市教育局統一辦理為佳，但仍應尊重各校選擇。 （二）各校自行辦理教師甄選有其優點，然實務上缺點更多。 （三）無論公費分發或教育局甄選介聘而來之教師都應接受教評會審查，但其審查權應有所規範。 （四）校長對教師人選有異議，仍應尊重多數教評委員之決定。 （五）教師甄選評比方式各有優缺，唯相互搭配使用，才較具客觀性。 三、教師聘約相關問題 （一）一般國民中小學教評會沒有能力、也沒有意願處理教師之解聘、停聘、不續聘及淘汰學校之不適任教師。 （一）同一學校長聘教師之聘期宜統一訂定。 （二）我國教師聘約之設計不具實質意義。 本研究根據文獻探討、調查研究發現與結論作成以下建議： 一、教師檢定、聘任制度專業組織方面，本研究之建議如下： （一）建議教育部成立全國性教師資格檢定單位，且應為常設機構。 （二）建議各縣市教育局成立教師聘任審議單位，且應為常設機構。 二、教師檢定與教師証相關問題方面，本研究之建議如下： （一）由各師資培育機構負責第一階段檢定工作，可考慮加入校內資格考。 （二）國家舉辦之檢定考試應為教師基本能力測驗。 （三）仿美國之變通檢覈制度為我國另類教育另闢師資來源管道。 三、甄聘、介聘教師相關問題，本研究之建議如下： （一）應對選擇自辦之各校有所規範，使其甄選過程兼具公正與專業。 （二）各校自行決定教師甄審辦理方式之規定可考慮加入「罰則」。 四、教師聘約設計相關問題，本研究之建議如下： （一）各校教評會對教師解聘、停聘、不續聘之職權行使，若未盡其職，校長或校務會議有權移請主管教育行政機關依法處理。 （二）建議加入定期評鑑教師之制度以為續聘之依據。 （三）適度增加長聘教師之福利待遇。 / The purpose of this study is to explore the current situation and problems of teacher certification and employment system of public elementary and junior high schools in Taiwan, and then to look for the best and practical solutions to the problematic issues, which are inclusive of teacher certification and teacher certificate/licensure, teacher selection and employment, and teacher agreement. The methods of this study comprise literature analysis, comparative approach, questionnaire investigation, as well as follow-up interviews. Subjects of this study consisted educational and school administrators, teachers, parents, and experts in Taipei. Valid data from 574 subjects were analyzed together with the information of interviews from 7 experts. The major findings of this study include : 1.Both the first stage and the second stage of current teacher certification were considered dysfunctional in evaluating pre-service teachers, so that most subjects supported the certification exam. 2.The current internship system is supposed to be cancelled, and to become a part of teacher preparation curriculum of colleges or universities. 3.1t is necessary to establish renewal and withdrawal system of teacher licensure in order to promote the teaching quality. 4.The city/county committees of teacher selection were mostly supported, but each school should still have the right to choose the way of selecting teachers. 5.Every kinds of teachers should be examined and assessed by SCTSE (school committee of teacher selection and employment ) before employed. 6.The principals should respect the decisions made by most members of SCTSE. 7.The SCTSE was considered unable and unwilling to deal with employing and unemploying teachers. 8.The device of teacher tenure was considered unmeaning.

本篇論文檢驗聯準會模型在六個亞洲市場：中國大陸、印度、馬來西亞、新加坡、台灣和泰國是否成立。我們首先檢驗共整合檢定來觀察變數之間長期的關係；另外，針對線性的指標模型，我們則檢測其是否具有非線性的門檻自回歸情形。實證結果顯示，於共整合檢定下，六個國家的股票價格、股票報酬和十年期債券殖利率具有長期共整合關係；而在非線性的TAR模型配適下，其解釋能力優於線性的AR模型。 / This paper studies the Fed Model in six Asia countries, China, India, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. We examine the cointegraiton test for the long-run relationship and build a nonlinear threshold autoregressive model (TAR) between the long -term government bond yield, the stock index and the earning s index. Our empirical results show that such a long-run relationship indeed exists for those countries. In addition, the explanatory power of TAR model is better than linear AR model.

在行銷策略、品牌推廣中，廣告一直是不可獲缺的重要角色。因此如何有效的傳達廣告中產品的訊息、品牌的理念，讓消費者接收到商品及品牌的優點並且產生消費的意願，一直是廣告行銷者最大的挑戰。然而每一支廣告從拍攝購買播出時段往往需花上龐大之金額，是故欲拍攝廣告之廠商，希望將每一塊錢都花在刀口上，期望能以最適當之廣告型態來為其商品拍攝廣告，準確地達成廣告之目的。故本研究將國內5年來登記上映之電視廣告挑選八大商品類別作為研究對象，以廣告型態(代言人、手法、調性)及秒數作為研究變項，探討各商品類別的電視廣告與廣告型態間之關聯性，進而找出最適合各商品類別之廣告型態。 本研究使用卡方獨立性檢定、單因子變異數分析及羅吉斯廻歸等方法，將廣告代言人分為名人、素人及動畫；廣告手法分為故事式、生活片段式、名人推薦式、真人反應及意見式、一般廣告歌式、動畫廣告歌式、訊息直接敘述式等七種；廣告調性分為Kuso(幽默)、輕鬆、感性，研究各商品類別、廣告型態及廣告秒數間的關係。研究結果發現： 1. 廣告代言人中以素人之比例為最高、動畫之比例最少，而以名人之成長率最為穩定。 2. 廣告手法以生活片段式及訊息直接敘述式之比例為最高、動畫廣告歌式之比例最少，而以故事式及訊息直接敘述式之成長率最為穩定。 3. 廣告調性以輕鬆之比例為最高。 4. 不同商品類別傾向選擇不同之廣告代言人。 5. 不同商品類別傾向選擇不同之廣告手法。 6. 不同商品類別傾向選擇不同之廣告調性。 7. 不同廣告手法、廣告調性對於廣告播出秒數有顯著性差異。

配對交易策略為一被廣為使用的交易策略，其特性為使用數個關聯性高的資產同時建立多空部位，藉此消除大部分的市場風險，賺取與市場趨勢無關聯性的報酬；本研究欲探討共整合法配對交易策略應用於兩類標的資產上之可行性及其功效:台灣證券交易所掛牌的6檔陸股ETF、以及COMEX黃金期貨與CME日幣期貨之組合。本研究使用之配對交易策略應用於6檔陸股ETF大部分參數設定下可獲得正報酬，獲利性卻不如預期，且共整合性質較佳之配對無法保證其交易績效亦較佳；COMEX黃金期貨及CME日幣期貨雖相對共整合性質不佳，仍以原策略測試可獲得較優秀的績效，此結果顯示共整合法配對交易策略於兩類資產上可行性皆不高，而配對交易策略於黃金、日幣組合上可能仍有其功效，尚須以不同方法進行驗證。 / Pairs trading strategy is one kind of market neutral strategy which take both long and short positions in two or more highly correlated assets. By doing this pairs trading strategy can eliminate market risk and make profits which are not correlated with market trends. This paper aims to figure out if pairs trading strategy work well on China ETFs listed in TWSE and the COMEX gold-CME yen future pair. We use the cointegration approach to test and simulate trading performance on the securities mentioned. The result shows that pairs trading strategy profit on China ETFs under most of the parameters, but the returns are insufficient. Furthermore, good cointegration property in the input periods can’t guarantee better performances in the outputs periods. For COMEX gold future and CME yen future, cointegration property in the input periods are worse than China ETFs, but using the same strategy we find a more profitable outcome. The empirical result indicate that pairs trading strategy might still work on gold and yen, but the cointegration approach is not suitable for these two groups of assets.

過去電力事業為了滿足電力用戶之需求，對於新電源之開發不遺餘力。然而由於電力事業近年來在供給面規劃屢遭當地居民抗爭而受阻，因而晚近轉而強調用戶需求面之管理。 本文針對台電公司現行需求面管理之「用戶計劃性減少用電措施」四種方案進行研析。首先設定簡化條件，將四種方案予以模型化，利用經濟剩餘模型，進行邊際分析，探討台電公司提供優惠之折扣比例及電力的價格需求彈性如何參與用戶抑低容量以及消費者剩餘、生產者剩餘分配之效果。分析結果顯示：「計劃性（二）」抑低用戶負載容量最高，且參與用戶之消費者剩餘最多；「計劃性（一）」抑低用戶負載容量最低，且參與用戶之消費者剩餘最少。另一方面，若從電力公司之視角觀之，「計劃性（二）」之生產者剩餘最低，而「計劃性（一）」之生產者剩餘最高。 經濟剩餘模型分析中，由於未能充分考慮供需雙方之潛在成本與效益，因此實務上之解釋能力有其侷限之處。基於上述緣由，本文接著藉由成本效益分析，將方案實施之潛在成本與效益納入考量，分別從參與用戶之角度進行參與者檢定（Participant Cost Test, PCT）以及從電力公司之角度進行公用事業成本檢定（Utility Cost Test, UCT），以檢視不同方案在不同觀點下之績效表現。成本效益分析結果顯示：在PCT檢定下，「計劃性（四）」參與用戶之益本比最高，「計劃性（二）」參與用戶之益本比最低。而在UCT檢定下，「計劃性（一）」電力公司益本比最高，「計劃性（四）」電力公司益本比最低。將成本效益分析與經濟剩餘模型比較後可發現，用戶抑低容量高的方案對於電力公司而言未必最有利。 最後，為進一步探討關鍵變數變動造成不同方案間成本效益值之影響，因此進行敏感度分析。敏感度分析的結果顯示：若電力公司為吸引用戶而提高誘因，增加各方案給予用戶優惠折扣之比例，以參與用戶角度而言，「計劃性（四）」參與者檢定之益本比提高幅度最大；以電力公司角度而言，「計劃性（四）」公用事業成本檢定之益本比降低幅度最大。若電力公司提高參與用戶每次抑低用電負載之時數，以參與用戶角度而言，「計劃性（四）」參與者檢定之益本比降低幅度最大；以電力公司角度而言，「計劃性（四）」之公用事業成本檢定益本比提高幅度最大。 / In order to meet the users’ demand of electricity, the electric power utility spared no effort to develop the new power plant in the past. However, in recent years, the electric power utility have been hampered by local residents on supply-side planning, thus more emphasize is being put on users’ demand-side management（DSM）. This paper aims to analyze four projects of Taipower’s existing demand-side management of “incentive plan for customers’ scheduled load curtailment program”. First, we set several simplified conditions for modeling the projects. By using the economic surplus model and conducting the marginal analysis, the impact from the discount incentive provided by the utility and the elasticity of electricity price demand is explored－on participants’ load capacity reduction and the distribution of consumer surplus and producer surplus. The results of economic surplus model showed "project 2" curtails the maximum load capacity and with the highest consumer surplus; "project 1" curtails the minimum load capacity and with the lowest consumer surplus. On the other hand, in the Taipower's point of view, "project 2" provides with the lowest producer surplus while "project 1" gives the highest producer surplus. In the economic surplus model, since the potential costs and benefit were not fully considered in both supply and demand sides, several limitations exist on this model. Based on the above reasons, we utilize the cost benefit analysis, taking the potential cost and benefit into account and conducting Participant Cost Test（PCT） from the participants’ perspective and Utility Cost Test（UCT）from the utility’s perspective to examine the performance under different 4 DSM projects in different point of view. The results of cost benefit analysis showed that in the PCT test, the "project 4" comes up with the highest benefit cost ratio while "project 2" has the lowest cost benefit ratio. In the UCT test, the "project 1" has the highest cost benefit ratio while "project 4" came with the lowest cost benefit ratio. Comparing the cost benefit analysis with the economic surplus model, we could find that the project with the most load capacity reduction may not be the most favorable project for the utility. Finally, in order to further explore the key variables affecting the cost and benefit value in different projects, we simulated several scenarios for sensitivity analysis. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that if the utility increases incentives to increase four projects’ ratio of discount for attracting participant, in the participants’ perspective, "project 4" would have the most changed rate of cost benefit ratio（increase）; in the utility's perspective, "project 4" would have the highest adjusted rate of cost benefit ratio（decrease）. If the utility increases the load curtailment duration each time, in the participants’ perspective, "project4" would have the highest adjusted rate of cost benefit ratio（decrease） ; in the utility’s perspective, " project4 " would have the highest adjusted rate of cost benefit ratio（increase）.