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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
31

強制性財務預測負向更新與信用交易關係之研究

林鎧文, Lin, Kai-Wen Unknown Date (has links)
證券市場中長期存在著資訊不對稱的情形,企業的內部人往往擁有絕對的資訊優勢,而由於公司之所有權與經營權的不分,造成公司的大股東即為實際的經營者,另外台灣股市中散戶投資者的比率較高及內線交易法的執行不夠嚴格,寬鬆的外在環境和鉅額的交易利益誘使企業的內部人利用同時身兼財務預測資訊的編製和發布者之便,透過財務預測的內容、更新幅度、更新頻率、釋放時點、釋放工具等的選擇,並使用信用交易工具,進行不法的內線交易。 本研究主要利用內線交易的實務觀察探討,強制性財務預測負向更新、股價報酬行為、與異常融資融券餘額的互動關係。並進一步區分樣本為股市多空、更新幅度大小四個族群,分別加以探討負向更新事件的個別影響及在不同的環境下影響的程度是否存在差異性。 本研究的主要實證結果為: 1. 強制性財務預測負向更新公告日前,在股市多空年及不同的負向更新幅度下,異常融資餘額除於更新幅度小的情形呈現負向增加反應外,其餘皆不符合預期的反應。而異常融券餘額的反應皆如研究預期般,有提前呈現正向增加的情形,並且其反應相當顯著。 2. 強制性財務預測負向更新公告日前,累積異常融資餘額在股市多空頭年和不同的負向更新幅度下均具有差異。而累積異常融券餘額在股市多空頭年間的差異極大,但對於更新幅度的大小則影響不大。 3. 強制性財務預測負向更新公告日前後,在股市多空年及不同的負向更新幅度下,公告日前的第7天開始有負向的股價異常報酬發生。另外在股市空頭年及負向更新幅度大的情形下,不但累積股價負向異常報酬明顯的大過股市多頭年及負向更新幅度小的累積值很多,而且股價的負向異常報酬仍然會持續到負向更新公告日之後。 4. 強制性財務預測負向更新公告日前,不管在股市多頭或空頭年,異常融資融券餘額的變化皆會早於股價的異常報酬,兩者間似乎存有一種聯動性關係。但是對於此種結果的理論意義,尚待更進一步的研究探討。此外,股價異常報酬和異常融資融券餘額的聯動關係以發生在融資融券餘額發生變化後的第3天機率最高,而且在股市空頭年觀察到的結果中,似乎比股市多頭年時反應較快,另外融券樣本又比融資樣本反應較快。 5. 在強制性財務預測負向更新公告日前,融資融券餘額的變化和內線交易間似乎存有極微妙的關係,本研究大膽推論融資融券餘額的鉅額變化在公告日前,可以作為內線交易的替代變數。不過其正確性仍待將來更進一步的研究。
32

強制性財務預測與分析師財務預測差異性研究

蔡永元 Unknown Date (has links)
本研究是透過盈餘管理及預測更新與否、公司管理當局的持股比率、負債比例、公司規模、市場風險、公司成長力、盈餘變異程度等因素,探討民國八十一年至八十六年間國內149上市公司,強制性盈餘預測與分析師盈餘預測精確度與公司特質的關聯性。 本實證結果發現: 一、管理當局強制性盈餘預測準確度與盈餘管理有顯著相關。 二、不論是強制性預測或分析師預測,預測更新愈頻繁,盈餘預測準確度愈高。 三、不論是強制性預測或分析師預測,公司規模愈大,盈餘預測準確度愈高。 四、負債比率與盈餘預測準確度有相關性。 五、公司風險與盈餘預測準確度具有相關性。 六、公司成長力與盈餘預測準確度具有相關性。 / above
33

評估不同模型在樣本外的預測能力 / 利用支向機來做預測的結合

蔡欣民, Tsai Shin-Ming Unknown Date (has links)
明天股票的價格是會漲還是會跌呢? 明天到底會不會下雨? 下期樂透開獎會是哪些號碼呢? 未來不知道會發生哪些事情? 大家總是希望能夠未卜先知、洞悉未來! 可是我們要如何進行預測呢? 本文比較了不同時間序列模型的預測績效, 而且測試預測的結合是否能夠改進預測的準確度? 時間序列模型的研究在近年來非常蓬勃地發展, 所以本文簡單介紹了時間序列模型(Time series models)當中的線性AR模型、非線性TAR模型、非線性STAR模型, 以及這些模型該如何來進行在樣本外的預測。 同時本文說明了預測的結合(Combined forecast)該如何進行? 預測結合的目的是希望能夠達到截長補短的效果! 除了傳統迴歸(Regression-based)方法和變動係數(Time-varying coefficients)方法外, 本文提出了兩種非迴歸類型的預測結合方法, 績效權數(Fitness weight)和支向機(Support Vector Machine)。 其中主要的焦點放在支向機, 因為迴歸方法可能會有共線性的問題, 支向機則是沒有這個問題。 本文實證的結果顯示, 在時間序列模型方面, 非線性模型的預測能力, 在大多數的情形底下, 都不如簡單的線性AR模型; 在預測結合的方面, 支向機的績效是和迴歸方法的績效是差不多的, 這兩者都比變動係數方法的績效來得穩固, 可是如果基底模型的預測值存在共線性的問題或樣本數目過少的問題, 那麼支向機的績效是優於迴歸方法的績效。 最後, 時間序列模型的預測績效會受到資料性質的影響, 而有極大的改變, 或許我們可以考慮使用比較保險的預測策略-預測結合, 因為預測結合的預測誤差範圍是小於時間序列模型的預測誤差範圍!
34

CPFR流程下之銷售預測方法~混合預測模型 / A Hybrid Modeling Approach for Sales Forecasting in CPFR Process

黃蘭禎, Huang,Lan Chen Unknown Date (has links)
協同規劃、預測與補貨(Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment,CPFR),在歐美經過一些企業的採用後已經有顯著的成效,目前國內已經有一些企業相繼採用或即將採用CPFR,期望能因此降低供應鏈作業成本及提升供應鏈作業績效,以提升企業競爭力。在CPFR流程與供應鏈協同作業環境下,一個供需雙方協同,且績效良好的的銷售預測具有關鍵的重要性,是管理決策與協同合作時的的重要依據;但是多數的企業並沒有一個結構化、系統化的預測流程及方法,而是各部門透過簡單時間序列方法、天真預測法或人為經驗法則估算需求,進行多點且不同方法之預測,這樣的銷售預測較無穩定的品質,亦較難提供管理者合理的數據解釋。本研究結合時間序列、多元回歸模型與基因演算法發展出一個CPFR流程下之三階段混合預測方法,以買賣方直接之銷售資料、銷售計畫等資訊進行以「週」為單位之個別商品銷售預測。同時本研究中,亦以國內某製造業公司與其顧客(一國際大型零售連鎖店通路商)之產品銷售資料進行方法的驗證;實驗顯示,本研究所提出之預測方法之預測結果較Jeong等人(2002)所提結合多元回歸模型與基因演算法之二階段預測系統之預測結果佳;亦較傳統使用普通最小平方法求解之一般統計回歸方法預測結果佳。 / It has been verified in pilot projects by many European and American Corporations that Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) can improve supply chain performance. Enterprises nowadays in Taiwan are implementing or going to implement CPFR, with hopes to reduce their supply chain operation cost, enhance logistic performance and increase their competition capability consequently. Under CPFR process and supply chain collaboration environment, a supply and demand both sides promised identical sales forecast with well forecasting performance for order decision making and cooperation is very important. Due to the dynamic complexities of both internal and external co-operate environment, many firms resort to qualitative, navie forecasting or other simple quantitative forecasting techniques and have many forecasts in their organization. However, these forecasting techniques lack the structure and extrapolation capability of quantitative forecasting models or without stable performance, while multi-forecasts providing different views of demand. Forecasting inaccuracies exist and typically lead to dramatic disturbances in sales order and production planning. This paper presents a hybrid forecasting model for sales forecasting requirements in CPFR. A three stage model is proposed that integrate the time series model, regression model and use genetic algorithm to determine its coefficients efficiently. Direct sales information and related planned events in both collaborated sides is used for individual product’s “week” sales forecasting. To verify this model, we experiment on two different products and produce forecasts with datum from one manufacturer in Taiwan and its international retailer. The results shows that the hybrid sales forecasting model has better forecasting performance than not only the causal-genetic forecasting model proposed by Jeong et al. (2002), but also ordinary regression model with no genetic training process.
35

企業更名對分析師行為影響之研究

尤愛齡, Yu,Ai Ling Unknown Date (has links)
本文以1999年至2006年間台灣改名公司為樣本(控制組),並以與改名公司相同產業、相同規模之非改名公司作配對樣本(對照組),透過兩者之比較以探討企業更名前後分析師行為之差異。本研究旨在檢驗改名事件日之前後60天(樣本期間為120天),分析師之盈餘預測、盈餘成長率預測及盈餘預測離散性之差異,另外也會對改名前後之分析師人數變動作檢測。為了探討樣本期間拉長而樣本數增加是否會影響檢測之情形,額外於第五章之敏感性分析作改名前後90天(樣本期間為180天),改名對於分析師行為影響之研究。另外,為比較不同類型的改名方式或條件不同的改名公司其改名事件對於分析師行為之影響,本文將改名的樣本公司依不同標準分成以下三類:第一種分類以新名稱是否有當紅產業字眼的變化作區分,第二種分類依新舊名稱之改變是否明顯且易於分辨而作大改名與小改名之區分,第三種分類方式則依新名稱是否與公司本業相符合作區分。 研究結果發現,不論樣本期間為120天或180天,實證結果皆顯示,相對於非改名公司,分析師會向上修正改名公司之盈餘預測及盈餘成長率預測,惟120天之結果較180天更為顯著,推測可能原因為樣本期間拉長後,干擾預測變動的因素相對增加而使改名之影響減低。樣本期間120天之實證結果也顯示,若新名稱有當紅產業字眼者,則對事件日後分析師盈餘預測及盈餘成長率預測也有正向關係;屬於大改名者則對事件日後分析師盈餘預測有正向關係 / This paper investigates the impact of corporate name changes on analysts’ behavior around the time of their announcement by analyzing listed Taiwanese companies that changed their name over the period January 1999 to December 2006. To make further investigations, we conduct separate analysis of firms having certain popular industry related new names versus non-popular industry related new names; of firms having ‘major’ versus ‘minor’ name changes; of firms having good versus poor connection between business and new names. Generally, we find some evidence of a significant positive association between the corporate name change event and the change of analysts’ behavior. The empirical results show that in contrast to non name change firms, analysts will revise up EPS and EPS growth forecast for name change firms. The results also suggest that analysts tend to revise up EPS and EPS growth forecast for firms having certain popular industry related new names. Furthermore, we also find a positive association between major name changes and analysts’ EPS forecast.
36

以使用者與參與者的角度分析「傳染病預測市場」之可行性 / The analysis of feasibility of epidemic prediction markets : from user and participant perspectives

李建霆 Unknown Date (has links)
千年以來,人類不斷遭遇各種疫病的侵襲,流行速度更勝戰火蔓延,影響整體人類重大,然而隨著醫學知識的進步與衛生環境的改善,許多傳染病已經受到控制乃至根絕,但是生活周遭仍然面臨諸多威脅生命健康的潛藏危機,如果稍有疏失或不慎,傳染病不僅對於人體造成傷害,甚至恐將危害社會、經濟和政治層面,而近年的SARS、H1N1等流行病毒皆造成全球恐慌。 防疫工作重點在於及早掌握疫情趨勢以利制定相關因應政策,目前各國對於傳染病的掌握主要透過層層監測系統與歷史平均,藉以判斷該年特定傳染病流行與散佈程度。這些方法受到各種人為與環境因素影響,導致推估疫情成效有限之外,同時所得資料無法直接反應未來疫情,因此導致各國相關單位逐漸嘗試其他預測方法。 近年應用預測市場機制預測疫情模式引起公衛領域的重視,相關學術期刊與著名雜誌相繼介紹此一新興模式,同時肯定其在預測傳染病方面的成效與貢獻,而美國和台灣政府部門先後透過此項機制改善現有防疫體系的不足。那麼,預測市場用以預測疫情的成效是否確實如同其在眾多領域取得的成效一樣出眾?鑑於前述問題,本研究分別透過質化與量化的方式發掘公衛、醫學或流病學等其他領域對於「傳染病預測市場」是否能夠成為有效的預測機制或是成為常規的參考方法,結果證實使用的疾管局人員與參與的專業醫事人員認為「傳染病預測市場」確實可以應用於我國疫情預測的層面,但是兩者意見具有程度的差異。 / For centuries, the spread of various diseases damage countless human beings, which surpass wars in the world. Those diseases not only endanger people’s life, but also invade the other dimensions, including society, economic and politics. With the advancement of medical knowledge and the improvement of public health, many infectious diseases have been brought under control and even eradicated. But humans still face and experience threats from pandemic viruses such as SARS and H1N1 constantly. Epidemic prevention work focuses on understanding the variation of situation as soon as possible. Then governments can set up suitable decisions and policies based on epidemic situation. Though the monitoring system and the historical average are the mainstream to control the trends of infections for related departments, scientists believe that the two methods are subject to humans and environmental factors. In other words, it is difficult to draw effective information and direct response of the future trends from present methods. And it leads to national units gradually try other epidemic forecasting methods. In recent years, using prediction markets to predict flu causes the attention of public health. Thus academic journals and well-known magazines not only introduce this application but approve its effectiveness and contribution in predicting infectious diseases. The departments of US and Taiwan have tried to improve the deficiencies of the existing prevention system through prediction markets. Is this application really as successful as PM in many issues and fields? To response the question, this research intends to through qualitative and quantitative ways respectively to explore the evaluations on Epidemic Prediction Markets behind public health, medical, epidemiology, etc. The result confirms that CDC staff and health workers identify the feasibility of Epidemic Prediction Markets, but with the degree of variation.
37

管理當局能力與管理當局自願性盈餘預測之關聯性 / The Relationship between Managerial Ability and Management Earnings Forecast

林姿均, Lin, Tzu Chun Unknown Date (has links)
本研究旨在探討管理當局發佈自願性盈餘預測意願、預測精確度、預測型態與管理當局能力之關聯性,並進一步檢測能力較佳之管理當局所發佈之盈餘預測對投資人是否具增額資訊內涵。 實證分析結果顯示管理當局能力與管理當局發佈盈餘預測之機率呈顯著正相關,亦即管理當局能力愈好,發佈盈餘預測之機率愈高;再者,本研究發現能力愈佳之管理當局,其盈餘預測之精確度亦會較高;而實證結果亦顯示當管理當局能力較好時,較願意以資訊量較多之完整式財務預測型態發佈財務預測。增額測試結果則顯示市場對於能力較佳之管理當局發佈之自願性盈餘預測反應程度較高。 / The primary objective of this thesis is to explore whether the managerial ability is related to management earnings forecast, earnings forecast accuracy , and disclosure format. Additionally, this thesis investigates whether managerial ability increases the informativeness of management earnings forecast for (potential) investors. Empirical results show that managers with superior ability tend to announce management earnings forecast and when managers have better ability, they shall announce more precise management earnings forecast. About disclosure format, this thesis finds that managers with superior ability prefer to announce complete earnings forecasts than simple ones. Additionally, market reaction will be more to the informativeness of management earnings forecast which made by managers with better ability.
38

管理當局能力與強制性盈餘預測之關聯性-來自中國A股上市公司的實證分析 / The Relationship Between Managerial Ability and Mandatory Forecast: Evidence from China

熊曦, Xiong, Xi Unknown Date (has links)
本研究以中國2007年至2013年盈餘預測的A股上市公司為主體。探討管理當局發佈強制性盈餘預測的預測形態、預測誤差以及市場反應與管理當局能力之關聯性,並進一步檢測管理當局能力是否影響到其對於強制性盈餘預告門檻的規避以及對於來年發佈自願性業績預測的意願。 實證的結果顯示管理當局能力越好其提供的強制性盈餘預測的形式越精準其預告資訊含量越多;再者,管理當局能力越好,其盈餘預測的誤差越低;實證結果也證明了市場對於能力較佳之管理當局所發佈的強制性盈餘預測的反應程度也較高。增額測試的結果顯示管理當局能力佳者盈餘品質較佳,具體表現為:相較於能力差的管理者,管理當局能力較好時不會通過盈餘管理去避免導因於產生增長50%或是下降50%而強制發佈盈餘預告的門檻。另外,管理當局能力越好,其在隔年度發佈自願性盈餘預測的幾率也越高。 關鍵詞:管理當局能力、強制性盈餘預測、預測形態、盈餘預測誤差、市場反應 / This thesis focuses on mandatory forecast issued from 2007 to 2013 in China and investigate whether managerial ability is related to mandatory forecasts types, forecast error and market reaction. Additionally, this thesis also examines whether managerial ability decrease the likelihood to avoid mandatory forecast thresholds. Finally, whether the managerial ability will increase the probability of issuing voluntary forecasts in the following year is an interesting but unsolved issue; I will fill the gap. Empirical results show that managers with superior ability tend to issue mandatory forecasts in the more precise type. As for the accuracy, the mandatory forecasts issued by better managers tend to have less error. I also find that managerial ability can promotes the informativeness of management earnings forecasts for the public. Additionally, high ability managers are less likely to avoid the thresholds of mandatory forecasts. Furthermore, better managers are more likely to issue voluntary forecasts in the following year of mandatory forecasts. Key Words: Managerial Ability, Mandatory Earnings Forecast, Forecast Format, Forecast Error, Market Reaction.
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強制性管理階層盈餘預測與董事會成員年齡的關聯 / The association between mandatory management earnings forecasts and board age

江侑蓁 Unknown Date (has links)
本研究以日本東京證券交易所上市公司為研究對象,探討董事會成員年齡與強制性盈餘預測之關聯性。本研究將董事會成員年齡區分為五種:董事長的年齡、董事會成員的平均年齡、董事會成員年齡的標準差、董事會成員最高年齡跟最低年齡的差距及董事長年齡是否高於董事會成員平均年齡,以測試其所發布盈餘預測準確度與盈餘預測偏差之關聯性。而實證結果發現董事長的年齡越大、董事會成員的平均年齡越大、董事長年齡高於董事會成員平均年齡時,所發布的盈餘預測準確度也就越高,且傾向較為保守的盈餘預測。而董事會成員年齡的標準差越大、董事會成員最高年齡與最低年齡差距越大時,所發布的盈餘預測準確度較低,且傾向較為樂觀的盈餘預測。
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我國會計師從事預測簽證可行性之研究

黃祺華, HUANG, GI-HUA Unknown Date (has links)
會計為一門實用學科,主要目的在於提供財務資訊以幫助閱表者評估企業未來之經營 方針及獲利潛力,而預測則為發揮該項功能的主要工具。目前除了英國已開放預測簽 證且其成效斐然外,預測之簽證迄為會計專業界之禁忌;然而自英國會計師簽證利益 預測之經驗以及客觀環境之需要,吾人可以斷言預測簽證勢將成為會計師業務之延伸 。本研究擬就該趨勢,探討其在我國之可行性。 本論文共計六章。第一章緒論,分別就研究動機、目的、方法與限制等加以說明。第 二章就「財務預測資訊的功能」予以闡述。第三章則進入本論文的理論核心,探討「 財務預測之簽證與會計師專業之相容性」。第四章及第五章分別就歐美各國及我國在 預測簽證的實務方面加以探討;第四章引述歐美各國對於預測簽證之正反意見及實務 狀況。第五章則是以我國為背景所做的實證調查結果加以報導及分析,該實證調查共 設計三組不同問卷,分別以(一)銀行及投資大象,(二)企業財務主管及(三)執 業會計師為發函對象。第六章為結論與建議。

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