The government of Colombia and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) have signed agreements heralding an era of “peace” for the country. While the end of the confrontation brings many opportunities, it also poses numerous challenges. This article argues that the most significant of these challenges is the potential for the conflict to merely transform into a socio-environmental conflict. Indeed, the mere signing of the peace agreements does not constitute a guarantee to prevent the escalation of conflict in some regions. To prevent this, the dynamics of dialogue and consensus evidenced in the negotiations that took place in Havana must be replicated at a local level in the territories that once were dominated by the FARC. Improved security conditions deriving from the ceasefire have shown propitious for the development of extractive activities in territories previously ridden by armed conflict. But while the dynamism of the mining and energy sector provides significant opportunity for economic development, it has coincided with the intensification of socio-environmental conflict in several regions of the country. If the government does not address these rising conflicts between multi-nationals and local populations, what is now fertile ground for peacebuilding could prove to be the beginning of a new form of long-lasting violent conflict. / El gobierno de Colombia y las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) han suscrito los acuerdos que presagian una era de “paz” para el país. Si bien el fin del enfrentamiento armado trae consigo muchas oportunidades, plantea a su vez muchos retos. La firma de los acuerdos de paz no constituye una garantía para evitar la intensificación del conflicto en algunas regiones. Las dinámicas de diálogo y concertación de las mesas de negociación de La Habana deben replicarse en los territorios que otrora fueron dominados por las FARC si no se quiere incrementar el conflicto, particularmente el socioambiental. El mejoramiento de las condiciones de seguridad que derivan del cese al fuego entre ambos bandos se ha mostrado propicio para el desarrollo de actividades extractivas en territorios donde hasta hace poco estuvieron vedadas. El reciente dinamismo del sector minero energético coincide con el escalamiento del conflicto socioambiental en numerosos territorios del país. Ante esta situación, la promoción del desarrollo por el Estado colombiano constituye un complejo desafío en el contexto de construcción de la paz.

Background: Suicidal behaviour is a major public health problem that has not abated over the past decade. Adopting machine learning algorithms that allow for combining risk factors that may increase the predictive accuracy of models of suicide behaviour is one promising avenue toward effective prevention and treatment. Methods: We used Canadian Community Health Survey – Mental Health and Canadian Forces Mental Health Survey to build conditional inference random forests models of suicidal behaviour in Canadian general population and Canadian Armed Forces. We generated risk algorithms for suicidal behaviour in each sample. We performed within- and between-sample validation and reported the corresponding performance metrics. Results: Only a handful of variables were important in predicting suicidal behaviour in Canadian general population and Canadian Armed Forces. Each model’s performance on within-sample validation was satisfactory, with moderate to high sensitivity and high specificity, while the performance on between-sample validation was conditional on the size and heterogeneity of the training sample. Conclusion: Using conditional inference random forest methodology on large nationally representative mental health surveys has the potential of generating models of suicidal behaviour that not only reflect its complex nature, but indicate that the true positive cases are likely to be captured by this approach.

O artigo em questão trata da evolução das relações civis-militares na Turquia e de sua estreita vinculação com a política externa do país. A partir de uma análise sobre o desenvolvimento do kemalismo na Turquia, demonstramos como as Forças Armadas conseguiram institucionalizar suas prerrogativas, de forma a ter grande relevância para a formulação da política externa turca. Ao longo da Guerra Fria, então, o papel jogado pelos militares fez com que Ancara se mantivesse alinhado ao Ocidente, com receio da ascensão de movimentos contrários, como o marxismo, o islamismo e o curdismo. No entanto, a partir de 1999, observamos o processo contrário, com o afastamento das Forças Armadas dos centros de decisão da política turca. Esse fenômeno foi acentuado a partir de 2002, com a emergência do AKP, que levou os setores religiosos ao governo e intensificou o declínio dos militares enquanto agentes políticos. Em termos diplomáticos, verificou-se uma transformação significativa da política externa da Turquia, que abandonou a matriz de aliança com o Ocidente em favor de uma estratégia mais regionalista e assertiva. / This article deals with the evolution of civil-military relations in Turkey, and with its strict link with its foreign policy. With that spirit, we analyzed the development of Kemalism in Turkey and we showed how the Turkish Armed Forces managed to institutionalize their prerogatives, so they could play a paramount role to the formulation of Turkish foreign policy. During the Cold War, therefore, it meant the Ankara has always been a close ally to the West, especially because Army feared the rise of antagonist political movements such as Marxism, Islamism and Kurdism. However, from 1999, we can observe the exact opposite phenomenon, because the Turkish Armed Forces have been ostracized when it comes to the Turkish political process. This fact was deeply intensified since 2002, when the AKP won the general elections. The AKP victory brought some religious segments to the core of the government and that deepen the military decline as political actors. Diplomatically, we remarked a significant shift in Turkish foreign policy, once Turkey abandoned its unquestionable alliance with the West in favor of a more assertive and regionalist strategy.

A cooperação em defesa na América do Sul é explicada pela Teoria Realista Ofensiva de Cooperação em Defesa sob a Unipolaridade - aqui introduzida. Identificada uma lacuna significativa nas teorias de Relações Internacionais e nos trabalhos que buscam explicar, de forma ad hoc, a cooperação em defesa em outras regiões do mundo, nossa teoria traz explicações para (1) a motivação dos Estados para cooperar em defesa; (2) as variáveis independentes que afetam a cooperação em defesa; (3) um modelo amplo de cooperação em defesa que possa ser replicado em diferentes regiões do mundo. Demonstramos que cooperar em defesa serve para aumentar a posição relativa dos Estados participantes tanto frente aos demais Estados quanto frente à potência unipolar, sem, contudo, aumentar as pressões do dilema da segurança. Esse suposto reafirma o princípio egoísta dos Estados, de buscarem maximizar o seu poder para melhor garantir a sua sobrevivência, mas mostrando que novos tempos exigem novas formas de maximização de poder. Para tanto, demonstramos a continuidade da unipolaridade dos Estados Unidos na balança de poder global e apontamos, via 15 indicadores diferentes, que a polaridade sul-americana encontra-se em um momento de transição entre uma multipolaridade desequilibrada e uma unipolaridade brasileira, sofrendo pressões sistêmicas de ambas as configurações e corroborando as expectativas de nossa teoria. Conclui-se que o reaparelhamento ou não das Forças Armadas brasileiras levará à definição do sobe e desce das pressões sistêmicas regionais para a cooperação em defesa: se confirmada a unipolaridade, haverá maiores incentivos para as iniciativas em andamento criadas e mantidas pelo protagonismo brasileiro, como a UNASUL e o CDS. Contudo, se configurada a multipolaridade desequilibrada, os incentivos sistêmicos serão para a manutenção de uma integração baixa e instituições fracas na área de cooperação em defesa na América do Sul. / The defence cooperation in South America is explained by the Offensive Realist Theory of Cooperation in Defence under Unipolarity - hereby introduced. After identifying a meaningful gap in international relations theories and in ad hoc works which tryed to explain defence cooperation in other parts of the world, our theory brings explanations for (1) states' motivations to cooperate in defence; (2) the independent variables that affect defense cooperation; (3) a comprehensive model of defense cooperation that can be applied to different regions of the world. We have shown that cooperating in defence works for improving the relative position of the participating states vis-a-vis either the other states or the unipole without increasing the pressures of the security dilemma. This requisite reaffirms the selfish principle of states of maximising their power to better ensure their survival, but showing that new times demand new ways of power maximisation. To do so, we have demonstrated the maintenance of the United States' unipolarity at the global balance of power and shown, through 15 different indexes, that the South-American polarity finds itself in a transitory moment between an unbalanced multipolarity and a Brazilian unipolarity, suffering then pressures from both configurations and thus corroborating our theory's expectations. Our conclusion is that the refitting or not of the Brazilian Armed Forces will lead to the definition of the ups and downs of the sistemic regional pressures on defence cooperation: if it is confirmed the Brazilian unipolarity, there will be greater incentives for the ongoing initiatives created and maintened by Brazil, such as UNASUR and SDC. Nevertheless, if the unbalanced multipolarity is confirmed, the sistemic incentives will be for the maintenance of a low regional integration and weak institutions on the South American defence cooperation field.

D.Litt. et Phil. / If the hypothesis is correct, there will be a reciprocal effect between the military budget and the Gross Domestic Product. The higher the technological level of arms and arms production, the more this reciprocal effect will be interwoven with the process of economic growth. It is measured by input-output figures and the applicable industrial multiplier, calculated from them. Production of high technology arms stimulates growth, the higher the technology, the larger the miltary contribution to the GDP and to economic growth. From the resultant increase in in the GDP, the income of the State by way of taxes will also grow, subject tro a time lag. The increase in State revenue will return to the Treasury part of the State's original expenditure on defence. My study indicates that the applicable multiplier for defence spending is 3.70 and that the multiplier for arms production is above 4. The part of military expenditure returned to the State will therefore be sizable. Military expenditure is often viewed as competing with socially desirable civil expenditure, as a case of opportunity cost. I argue that oppotunity costs do not apply and that the stimulus economy derived from military expenditure via the multiplier, helps funding social projects along with other civil expenditure. The reasoning in this study can be extended to the funds invested in increasing the capital and technology intensity of the defence force, a modern trend which can be economically justified by the part of the investment that will be returned via the GDP. The way to escape the limitations imposed on defence strength by the availabiluity of manpower is exactly this modernisation of its technology. In this way a medium power can increase its relative strength to the leyel of the "strength threshold" at which an independent deterrent can be credibly presented. In these terms a critical value can be defined, expressed as a pecentage of GDP budgeted for defence, above which a country could be considered militarily safe.

This study adopts a post-structuralist point of view in order to examine the discoursive legitimation of the incorporation of a gender perspective in the Swedish Armed Forces. This is done by analysing empiric material primarily consisting of one of three parts of Handbook Gender as well as newspaper articles aimed both at the Swedish public and at the Swedish Armed Forces itself. Methodologically the study is conducted by applying Theo van Leeuwen’s discourse analytical framework of identifying legitimation arguments to the chosen empiric material. This is done order to establish what kind of legitimation arguments have been the most frequently used: rational, moral, or authority-based. The study finds that the Swedish Armed Forces has used a majority of rational arguments, a finding which is then discussed from a poststructuralist and gender-theoretical point of view. The author argues that the legitimation of a gender perspective in the Swedish Armed Forces has been done in harmony with the organization’s identity as an inherently masculine authority. This opens up to questions regarding whether the implementation of a gender perspective can be done without changing persisting norms of masculinity in the Swedish Armed Forces.

Enligt Försvarsmaktens handlingsplan för jämställdhetsintegrering från år 2015 finns målsättningar om att öka antalet kvinnor i organisationen samt på högre befattningar (Försvarsmakten, 2015). Ett sätt att nå målen är bland annat att rekrytera fler kvinnor till Officersprogrammet men även arbeta för att de kvinnor som söker sig till officersyrket stannar kvar (Österberg, Jonsson, Brandow, Klockare & Eriksson, 2017). För att ta reda på hur kvinnliga kadetter upplever sin studiesituation och sin situation i Försvarsmakten genomfördes därför en kvalitativ undersökning där sex kvinnliga kadetter intervjuades. Resultatet analyserades enligt tematisk analys där tre faktorer framträdde; ambition, kultur och synlighet. Ambition avser förväntningarna på och under utbildningen, personligt driv, upplevda krav och familjebildning. Kultur inbegriper traditioner, bemötande och jargong, det maskulina idealet samt anpassningsstrategier. Den sista faktorn, synlighet, rör hur kvinnor synliggörs utifrån en minoritetssituation där bland annat identiteten av att vara kvinna förstärks genom Försvarsmaktens rekryterings- och marknadsföringskampanjer som ofta framhåller kvinnor. Kvinnor synliggörs för att de är kvinnor medan deras prestationer osynliggörs. Förslag på förbättringar utifrån studiens resultat är bland annat att Försvarsmakten bör se över det fokus kvinnor har i sin externa och interna kommunikation samt marknadsföring, involvera anställda på lägre hierarkinivåer i organisationen i arbetet med värdegrunden, se till att värdegrunden praktiskt tillämpas under utbildningen på Officersprogrammet samt införa ett mentorskap för kvinnliga kadetter. / Drawing on the content from the Swedish Armed Forces plan from 2015 for implementing gender mainstreaming, there are aspirations to increase the number of women in the organisation and in higher ranks (Försvarsmakten, 2015). One solution is to recruit more women to the Officers’ programme, but also ensuring that women who have already enrolled as officers will remain in their occupation (Österberg, Jonsson, Brandow, Klockare & Eriksson, 2017). In order to elucidate how female cadets experience their situation during their training and their situation within the Swedish Armed Forces a qualitative study was performed where six female cadets were interviewed. A thematic analysis was used to analyze the results and three factors emerged; ambition, culture and visibility. Ambition relates to expectations before and during the education, personal grit, perceived demands and family planning. Culture embodies traditions, personal treatment and jargon, idealizing of masculinity, as well as strategies for adaption. The last factor, visibility, derives from the way women are made visible from belonging to a minority where the identity of being a woman is further enhanced through the recruitment and marketing campaigns of the Swedish Armed Forces, who often focus on women. Women are made visible because of their sex, not for their achievements. Suggestions for improvement according to this study is that the Swedish Armed Forces should reconsider their focus on women in their internal and external communication. Further suggestions include involving employees at lower levels of the organisation in the work related to implementing the value system, where practical accomplishment of the value system is an integrated part of the education at the Officers’ programme and to introduce mentors for the female cadets.

The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which the end of the Cold War led to Europeanisation in European Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). The analysis takes into consideration previous studies on Europeanisation and its impact on the transformation of national security and defence, and attempts to account for the development of Europeanisation and related mechanisms. These mechanisms, which were described by Radaelli as framing mechanisms and negative integration, incorporate all major relevant factors identified in the thesis (i.e., a common strategic culture, new security identity, domestic political decision-making, industrial base and defence spending decline) which contribute to the realisation of the CSDP. The relevance of these factors for CSDP Europeanisation is examined through historical and empirical analysis. Furthermore, the relationship between CSDP and NATO is also explored. This approach facilitates the analysis of the debate concerning the emergence of CSDP and throws light on the political shift that led EU leaders to support CSDP. Another aspect of this study is the empirical analysis of the dynamics and limitations of the European defence sector. The changes which took place in the European defence sector facilitated the emergence of CSDP. Hence, these changes are analysed in view of globalisation issues, economies of scale, economic crises, military autonomy, new security strategy and R&D impact.

Since the year of 2010, when the Swedish military made a transition from a conscript to a voluntary force, numerous people from the Swedish defence force have participated in international missions. This study seeks to understand the motivation and sacrifice behind the choice to travel abroad to countries like Afghanistan and Mali to preserve peace. This is being done through the theory of Helle Hein’s four motivational profiles, namely The Prima donna, The Performance Addict, The Pragmatist, and The Pay Check Worker. The empirical data consists of answers from 131 respondents to a survey sent to soldiers on duty in Mali (July 2016) and 3 semi-structured interviews with soldiers who have returned home. The result of the study is presented through various diagrams and show that the motivational factors of The Performance Addict overshadows the others. Furthermore is the theory’s relationship between motivational profile and level of sacrifice confirmed, even though it should be interpreted with some caution. / Sedan år 2010, när svenska försvaret gick i från ett värnplikts- till ett yrkesförsvar, har flera tusen svenska soldater deltagit i internationella insatser. Den här studien undersöker motivationsfaktorer och uppoffring hos de som väljer att åka till länder som Afghanistan och Mali för att bevara freden. Det sker genom Helle Heins fyra motivationsprofiler, nämligen Primadonnan, Prestationsjägaren, Pragmatikern och Löntagaren. Den empiriska datan består av svar från 131 respondenter från styrkan i Mali (juli 2016) samt 3 semi-strukturerade intervjuer med soldater som har återvänt hem. Resultatet av studien presenteras genom olika diagram och visar att motivationsfaktorerna hos Prestationsjägaren dominerar. Vidare bekräftas teorins samband mellan motivationsprofil och grad av uppoffring, även om det resultatet ska tolkas med viss försiktighet.

D.Litt. et Phil. (Historical Studies) / Refer to full text